Contract Crowdsourcing Results: Manny Ramirez
The results are in, and there’s more agreement about Manny’s potential payout this winter than I expected. For this one, since we gave people the option of putting in 0 years/0 dollars to project that he won’t sign this winter, I’ll break those out separately, and then the projected contract figures will only include those that think he will sign for some figure this winter.
Percentage of voters who think Manny will not sign this winter: 6.7%
Average length: 1.27 years
Average salary: $8.41 million
Median length: 1 year
Median salary: $8 million
Standard deviation, length: 0.48 years
Standard deviation, salary: $3.19 million
I was surprised that over 93% of the voters expected him to play next year. I would certainly put the odds at lower than that. I might even say that Manny following the Gary Sheffield path might be the more likely outcome, in my estimation. But you guys clearly disagree, and believe that teams will value the production more than the personality, even at age 39. Scott Boras certainly hopes you guys are correct.
In terms of length of contract, pretty much everyone agreed, going with either one or two years. A few brave souls thought he’d get three years, but they were a very small minority at 1.4% of the vote total. However, there was less agreement on the annual average value of the contract, with a standard deviation of over $3 million. 35 percent of the voters thought he would make more than $10 million per year, while 17 percent though he would have to settle for $5 million per year or less. As always, the votes centered around the median; however, that number was not the most popular selection. 129 people went with $10 million, as opposed to the 127 who went with $8 million. It’s essentially a tie, but the average was clearly pulled down more by folks on the low end than it was up by people on the high end.
So, one-year, $8 million for Manny Ramirez. If he didn’t have any off-the-field issues, I’d probably agree with that, based on his age and talent level. Given all of the extra things that come with Manny, though, and the abundance of DH options this winter, I’m not sure what team is going to make that offer. We shall see.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
“I was surprised that over 93% of the voters expected him to play next year.”
Yea, I imagine many voters were in the same boat I was. I thought to myself “Well, he’d probably come back for 1/8 (what I voted) and maybe as low as 1/5 + heavy incentives, but there’s a good chance no one will give that to him.”
I’d imagine if you had another poll “What is the chance many doesn’t resign?” you’d obviously get a different number than 7%. Probably 30-50.
Agreed. 93% saying he’ll play is much different than a 93% chance that he plays. Essentially it means that 93% of voters think that there’s at least a 50% chance that he plays.
Agreed, that is how I voted, is there a 50% chance Manny will receive a contract. I then dithered over whether there would be an achievable vesting or team option included. I don’t remember what I decided but I’d put the possibility of an option of some kind above 50%. I was thinking 1~10 or 2~17.5 seemed right to me.