Corey Kluber Is the Best Pitcher in Baseball
(Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)
For a really long time, there was little doubt about the best pitcher on the planet. Clayton Kershaw has been on an epic run that will land him in the Hall of Fame. Over the past two seasons, Kershaw has still been brilliant, but he’s averaged 24 starts and 162 innings instead of 32 starts and 222 innings. That slight downturn in health has allowed arguments to pop up debating whether Kershaw is still the best pitcher in baseball. Last season, Max Scherzer was the takeover candidate of choice. The 2016 National League Cy Young winner followed up one great performance with another by claiming the award again. Ignored in those debates was a pitcher who has been better than both over the past two seasons and projects to be better this year: Corey Kluber.
On Monday, Kluber pitched eight scoreless innings, striking out 13 batters against one walk and just two hits. After three starts, Kluber’s ERA is 1.57, his FIP is 2.33, and he’s been worth 0.7 WAR. That’s great, but it doesn’t really separate him from a bunch of good pitchers off to great starts, including Scherzer, Dylan Bundy, and Gerrit Cole. Let’s extend to the past just a little bit more to get a sense of how Kluber has done lately. The table below shows the top pitchers by WAR since the All-Star Break last season.
| Name | IP | FIP | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 133.1 | 2.51 | 1.76 | 4.6 |
| Luis Severino | 99.2 | 2.81 | 2.17 | 3.3 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 107.0 | 2.91 | 3.36 | 3.1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 102.0 | 2.81 | 3.18 | 3.0 |
| Justin Verlander | 120.0 | 3.28 | 1.88 | 3.0 |
| Jon Gray | 102.1 | 3.18 | 3.96 | 2.9 |
| Chris Sale | 97.2 | 2.76 | 2.86 | 2.9 |
| Charlie Morton | 95.0 | 2.92 | 3.03 | 2.8 |
| Gerrit Cole | 109.1 | 3.35 | 3.62 | 2.8 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 75.0 | 2.47 | 1.32 | 2.6 |
| Max Scherzer | 92.1 | 2.97 | 2.73 | 2.5 |
Kluber is so far out ahead of the pack, the 1.3 WAR difference between him and Severino is nearly double the difference between Severino and 11th-place Scherzer. Combining his great second half with his strong start to this season, Kluber has struck out 169 batters and walked only 15. Since the All-Star Break last season, Kluber has been the best pitcher in baseball, and it isn’t particularly close. To really take a look at the best pitcher in baseball, it probably helps to take a bit of a longer view.
Kluber’s first full season as a starter was in 2014, when he won his first AL Cy Young award. This next table looks at pitcher WAR since that year. It really shouldn’t be a surprise that Kershaw tops the list, but it might be a bit of a shock to see just how close Kluber is to the greatest pitcher of this generation.
| Name | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 774.0 | 1.99 | 2.19 | 27.6 |
| Corey Kluber | 899.1 | 2.80 | 2.75 | 26.0 |
| Chris Sale | 834.2 | 2.97 | 2.80 | 24.6 |
| Max Scherzer | 898.0 | 2.82 | 2.91 | 24.1 |
| David Price | 787.1 | 3.20 | 3.09 | 19.0 |
| Jose Quintana | 815.1 | 3.51 | 3.30 | 18.6 |
| Jake Arrieta | 755.1 | 2.68 | 3.05 | 18.5 |
| Jon Lester | 817.1 | 3.09 | 3.27 | 17.8 |
| Zack Greinke | 796.2 | 2.90 | 3.22 | 17.6 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 677.2 | 3.15 | 2.89 | 17.3 |
There’s really a top four of Kershaw, Kluber, Sale, Scherzer, and then a pretty sizable gap before David Price enters the picture. FanGraphs leaderboards have a feature where we can look at the past calendar year going back three years. Because we might want to get a little more recent than 2014, here are those past three years.
| Name | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 569.2 | 2.04 | 2.33 | 19.7 |
| Chris Sale | 660.2 | 3.17 | 2.86 | 19.4 |
| Max Scherzer | 670.0 | 2.74 | 2.94 | 18.5 |
| Corey Kluber | 656.1 | 2.93 | 2.91 | 18.4 |
| Jose Quintana | 610.0 | 3.53 | 3.44 | 13.6 |
| Jake Arrieta | 591.2 | 2.75 | 3.27 | 13.3 |
| Chris Archer | 625.1 | 3.81 | 3.35 | 13.3 |
| Zack Greinke | 588.1 | 2.98 | 3.32 | 13.1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 546.0 | 3.02 | 3.13 | 13.1 |
| Justin Verlander | 585.2 | 3.18 | 3.59 | 12.8 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 457.1 | 3.13 | 2.86 | 12.7 |
| David Price | 530.1 | 3.22 | 3.26 | 12.5 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 535.1 | 3.50 | 3.24 | 12.5 |
| Jon Lester | 593.1 | 3.31 | 3.45 | 12.0 |
We again see the same top four pitchers with a big gap before we get to the rest of the very good pitchers. This time, Kluber drops to fourth with his 2014 Cy Young season out of the picture, but all four pitchers are separated by barely more than one win above replacement. So what happens when we look at the past two calendar years?
| Name | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 436.1 | 2.60 | 2.84 | 13.1 |
| Chris Sale | 445.0 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 13.0 |
| Max Scherzer | 442.0 | 2.67 | 2.96 | 12.5 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 336.0 | 2.06 | 2.58 | 11.0 |
| Justin Verlander | 446.1 | 3.11 | 3.60 | 9.8 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 329.1 | 3.06 | 2.89 | 9.3 |
| Jose Quintana | 403.0 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 8.5 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 353.0 | 3.31 | 3.30 | 8.3 |
| Chris Archer | 409.0 | 4.05 | 3.56 | 8.0 |
| James Paxton | 266.2 | 3.51 | 2.83 | 7.9 |
| Zack Greinke | 367.2 | 3.62 | 3.54 | 7.9 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 224.0 | 2.81 | 2.24 | 7.8 |
| Rick Porcello | 439.0 | 3.83 | 3.90 | 7.7 |
| Jacob deGrom | 355.0 | 3.30 | 3.42 | 7.7 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 384.2 | 3.84 | 3.86 | 7.7 |
Again, we see the same top four, but this time Kluber takes the top spot. Kerhsaw’s health dinged him up enough to drop him down the list a bit, but still within range of Kluber, Scherzer, and Sale despite 100 fewer innings. It’s pretty amazing how much better these top four pitchers are than the rest of the league. Kluber, Scherzer, and Kershaw have combined to win seven of the last 10 Cy Young awards handed out over the past five seasons.
So what about the past calendar year? Kluber has the top spot by a decent margin.
| Name | IP | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 220.2 | 2.04 | 2.30 | 8.4 |
| Chris Sale | 218.1 | 2.89 | 2.41 | 7.9 |
| Max Scherzer | 214.0 | 2.36 | 2.79 | 6.6 |
| Luis Severino | 201.1 | 2.77 | 2.97 | 6.1 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 206.0 | 3.41 | 3.14 | 5.5 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 180.2 | 2.59 | 2.89 | 5.3 |
| Zack Greinke | 201.1 | 3.35 | 3.29 | 5.0 |
| Jimmy Nelson | 169.1 | 3.56 | 3.01 | 4.9 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 181.0 | 2.19 | 2.98 | 4.8 |
| Jacob deGrom | 207.0 | 3.52 | 3.47 | 4.5 |
| Jose Quintana | 195.1 | 4.01 | 3.42 | 4.5 |
| Justin Verlander | 218.1 | 3.22 | 3.83 | 4.3 |
Kluber is helped slightly by the fact that his first two starts of 2017 weren’t great, so getting rid of those helps push him ahead of Sale. No matter how you look at it, this year-long run for Kluber has been amazing. Since Randy Johnson put up 9.6 WAR in 2004, the only pitchers to pitch a full regular season and put up at least 8.4 WAR are Kershaw in 2015 (8.5 WAR) and Zack Greinke in 2009 (8.6 WAR).
One other consideration in determining the current talent level of a pitcher is projections. Before the season started, Kluber and Kershaw ranked 1 and 2 in ZiPS and Steamer projections, with Kluber taking the top spot in ZiPS and Kershaw first in Steamer. Our Depth Chart projections combine the two and gave the edge to Kluber. Here’s how those pitchers ranked in the various projections systems, along with the other pitchers to place a projection among the top five by either service.
| Name | ZiPS | Steamer | Depth Charts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Max Scherzer | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Chris Sale | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Luis Severino | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 9 | 3 | 3 |
Just a couple weeks into the season, here’s what the rest-of-season projections say.
| Name | ZiPS | Steamer | Depth Charts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Max Scherzer | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Chris Sale | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Luis Severino | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 9 | 5 | 5 |
Corey Kluber projects to be the best pitcher in baseball this season. If we were to scale the projections on a per-inning basis, Kershaw would actually take the lead over Kluber by a couple of runs. Given Kershaw’s innings totals over the past few seasons, it seems fair to dock Kershaw by a few innings, like the Depth Charts projections have done. Even if Kershaw does match Kluber in innings this season, with Kluber’s head start, he would still be projected to finish with a higher WAR than Kershaw. Corey Kluber didn’t pitch a full season in the majors until he was 28 years old. He was a little late to the big leagues, so it is only fair that he’s a little late to this debate. Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw made headlines in 2017, but in 2018, it should be Corey Kluber’s title to lose.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Are head to head home runs a factor in Cy Young voting?
Ohtani is going to win that category, easy.
He hasn’t taken me deep. Yet.
You can choose kluber over any of those 4 guys, but WAR isn’t the tool to bolster your argument. It’s nowhere near that precise. Especially when you cherry picked endpoints that favor Kluber over Sale. Projected WAR only expands the error bars and makes it even closer.
There’s an interesting conversation to be had here, but “Kluber has the most WAR so he’s the best” doesn’t really answer the (ill-defined) question.
Are you starting a franchise and need to choose a franchise pitcher? Give me Sale, he’s the youngest.
Do you need to get 9 outs in the biggest game in the history of the world? Give me a healthy Kershaw, or Syndergaard.
27 outs? Whichever of the 4 has the most favorable matchups.
Do you need to have the best 2018 season? Give me Kluber because the consistency beats Sale/Kershaw and the performance beats Scherzer.
But calling someone “best” based on a few decimal places of projected WAR is… meh.
Exactly. I came away from this thinking Sale was much closer to grabbing the top spot than I’d thought he’d be based on the headline. Being behind by 0.1 WAR over the past two calendar years and 0.5 over the past 12 months means we have what amounts to a tie. And then you add in the fact that Kershaw is projected to be better on a per-inning basis going forward, and it sure seems like the headline oversells the conclusion, which in turn oversells the data.
Don’t forget, guys, this fellow needs something to write.
I think there’s an interesting article to be written on Kluber’s HOF odds.
He is going to need to be great for a while before HOF talks mean much. He isn’t Sandy Koufax.
Exceedingly slim. He’s 32 and would need to essentially repeat his career to date to even get a foot in the door. Maybe his late start allows him to have a Spahn-like 30s but right now it’s a remote possibility.
The better take away and title for this article probably has to be “Kluber, Kershaw, Sale, and Scherzer Are the Best Pitchers in Baseball”
Yeah, I’m not sure how you separate out these four. Which one you think is “best” probably says as much about you as it does about them.
subtitle: I use one table, with four different arbitrary end points, to make this point. there will be no break down of the components of FIP, discussion of park effects, opponents. It’s just wall to wall WAR.
though, maybe that’s a bit too long for a subtitle. I won’t quit my day job.
Kluber, Kershaw
Sale and Scherzer
I’ve just spent the last few hours repeating that. Just poetic.
Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw…it is poetic.
Agreed. I don’t want to be unkind, but pretty much the entirety of this writer’s body of work on this site consists of this kind of “analysis,” i.e., lazily sorting WAR tables to make sweeping and overconfident assertions. His Hall of Fame articles are the same schtick.
“Do you need to get 9 outs in the biggest game in the history of the world? Give me a healthy Kershaw, or Syndergaard.”
Yeah, I’m going with Bumgarner every time for that.
9? Hell, 15 outs, it’s Bumgarner no question; as long as it’s not April-September.
It’s not like Bumgarner is a regular-season slouch. He’s still up there in the discussion.
For the regular season, I’ll flip a coin for a top 5 pitcher.
For a winner-take-all game? There’s no question that it’s Bumgarner.
I agree with your premise but not your opinions.
To get 9 outs in a game, I would go with any of the top 4. Syndergaard shouldn’t be in the discussion.
For 27 outs, who is hotter. The fact you need matchups to dictate it reflects the closeness in skill.
Best 2018? Kluber, hence the article.
Cherry-picked dates? I don’t see any. He used today’s date. Because, well, today.
We can’t and shouldn’t use WAR beyond tenths-place. 8.3 to 8.4 is nothing, but 8 to 8.4 is significant in differentiation.
I knew Jon Gray had a strong finish to last season, and that first chart really helped put it into perspective.
Is there a Clayton Kershaw Society? I think not.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players.aspx?lastname=society+corey+kluber&type=blog
So, all you did was press “sort?” That was your analysis?
The numbers are kind of cherry-picked and come after a start where Kluber had one of the most generous strike zones against RH batters that I’ve seen (almost all of the called strike 3s were balls by any reasonable zone).
Kluber is fantastic and amazing, but he hasn’t separated himself from the other 3. RoS WAR also takes into account that he will be facing the worst competition of the 4 over the rest of the season.
I just went back through the gamecast because I was curious about what you said, and the only called strike 3 that was a ball was Miguel Cabrera in the 1st inning. The third pitch in that at bat was clearly a strike and was called a ball. I’m sure he got another few calls along the way, but you are seriously misrepresenting the extent of it.
What I took away from this is not that Kluber is clearly better, because the numbers don’t really bear that out, but rather that it’s criminal that Sale doesn’t have a Cy Young to his name.
Except the Cy Young Award(and all other awards) aren’t the best pitcher around award, it’s the pitcher who had the best season award to most voters. 2 completely different things.
In his 6 starting years, he’s had 2 years where his ERA was sub 3. in the other 4- 2016 he had a real chance(Porcello had a 3.04 ERA)- but had probably his worst season as a starter. The other 3, there were guys who were better- 2012-Price, 2013- Scherzer, 2015- Keuchel(0.93 better ERA than Sale).
In 2014, he made only 26 starts/174 innings. Kluber won with 34 starts/235.2 innings- and King Felix was 2nd with 34 starts/236 innings, and a better ERA than Sale. Pretty easy to see Sale finishing 3rd there. And last year- Sale fell apart at the end of the year while Kluber had a 4 month period that was incredible. If he has really either 2014 or 2017 year in 2016- he’s probably close to a unanimous winnner.
Is it unlucky for Sale? Yes. Is it criminal? No way.
Every year for past 4 or 5 season a there has been a “new best pitcher in baseball”. Yeah some guys a few weeks into the season give you the feeling they are taking the crown, remember how Sale was the best pitcher in baseball around this time last year? But year in and year out , Kershaw still manages to be the best or among the best in any statistic. Yeah he has been limited in innings the past two years, but anybody betting against him having the best season for a SP should not sleep easy at night. I think Kluber needs at least one more season of dominance before we can call him the best in baseball. It’s too close between the top four.
Looking at pitcher war is interesting. You mentioned Randy Johnson’s 9.6 WAR in 2004, he also put up 9.5 WAR or more 4 other times. Clemens and Pedro? Once each.
The selective date criteria seems a bit silly, considering that you excluded the two most important games he pitched within that date range.
If Syndergaard can somehow pitch 200 innings in a season, then he would easily be the best pitcher. In the two year chart he has 7.8 WAR in only 224 IP. Give him 400 innings and he would easily be tipping that chart at about 15 WAR.
His fastball and BABIP issues keep Thor out of the conversation right now for me. If he learns to really command that fastball AND stay healthy then we can start adding him to the elite group. He’s still a thrower.
Kluber is a killer no doubt, but should we not consider that the division he has been competing in, is significantly less competitive than Sherzer, or Kershaw?
What is so tough about NL East in recent years?
Besides the Nats 2017 lineup.
In Max Scherzer’s 3 years with the Nats, the 2015 and 2016 Mets were the only non-Nats teams to have a winning season in the NL East
Meanwhile, during the same period the NL West and AL Central both produced 4 non-Dodgers/non-Indians winning seasons.
It is true but, I bet having to pitch to a guy that is dedicated to hitting 4 times a game is a lot harder than pitching to a guy that is dedicated to pitching 3-4 times a game. So it may wax evenly
Per Depth Charts projections, Kershaw has a projected ERA of 2.69. Much lower than Sale (2.99), Kluber (3.03), and Scherzer (3.11). Sure, Kluber may produce more value overall due to pitching more innings but calling him best just depends on your definition of “best.” On a per inning basis, Kershaw is the best starting pitcher in baseball and it’s not exactly close.
Raw ERA does not adjust for league, park factor, and defensive impacts.
Didn’t realize just how much better those top 4 are than everyone else. But I think it’s a little weird to acknowledge Scherzer and Kershaw as contenders but blow by Sale, when he’s been better than Scherzer and Kershaw over the last 1,2 and 3 calendar years (and, in fact, neck-and-neck with Kluber over two of those three periods)
I liked when Fangraphs had less clickbait titles.
Here’s another perspective on Kluber.
It doesn’t matter which of those tables you pick. Arguably, they’re cherry-picked. Arguably, they’re just a showcase.
But whichever one you pick, the column that stands out (and the other columns demonstrate that he’s a heck of a pitcher) is the number of innings pitched. He’s either at the top by 10%, or trailing the top by 5%.
Teams love a mid-rotation pitcher who can act as a workhorse. But teams don’t expect them to be an Ace.
Those stats suggest that Kluber is both a workhorse and an ace.
I think the thing that’s so amazing about Kluber is the economical way he pitches….
he’s since the start of the 2014 season the #1 pitcher in terms of innings pitched. barely ahead of Scherzer….. 1.1 innings. Only 10 guys have at least 800 innings pitched.. only Kluber and Scherzer are above 850.
But in terms of # of pitches- Kluber is #5. He’s thrown a crazy 787 fewer pitches than Scherzer in those 5 years despite only having an extra 1.1 innings pitched. Chris Sale has thrown 58.2 fewer innings than Kluber- but has thrown 10 more pitches.