Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 5/14/2020

Craig Edwards: Going to let the queue get a little bigger and then we will be chatting momentarily.

Craig Edwards: Earlier this week, I wrote on the possibility of revenue sharing and why it is an unreasonable ask by the owners: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/after-years-of-profits-mlb-owners-ask-…

Craig Edwards: Here’s something on why the short draft is a bad idea: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shortened-2020-mlb-draft-a-shortsighted-po…

Craig Edwards: And here’s the most recent round of results to my crowdsourcing project: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-the-2020-season-will-look-like-cr…

Snuds: If we get a 2020 season, do you see trades happening  before that season starts?

Craig Edwards: I think, yes, but probably not until right before the season starts as teams will want to be more sure that a season is happening before they start trading players away. What will be interesting to see if teams that are expected to be bad, trade players right away given the shortened season. Also, I wonder if teams are getting directives from ownership to move payroll now and in future seasons, if that happens quickly.

Guest: Is there a world where it makes sense for the players to accept some form of revenue sharing this year in exchange for access to the owner’s books going forward?

Craig Edwards: Access to the books is sort of a nebulous thing. And who gets access? What happens when salaries of presidents are leaked? What about family members of owners who maybe don’t do as much with the organization? It isn’t the access necessarily that’s the problem with revenue sharing. There’s the defining of revenue. What about ownership stakes in tv networks broadcasting the games? When MLB provides the player “revenue share” they lop of a billion dollars in costs for the central office and MLBAM because that’s not money that teams theoretically receive, but it is still baseball revenue and when they do eventually receive money from those sources, like with the BAMTech sale, that money doesn’t get counted either. In short, opening the books helps in a PR war, but it doesn’t help in a practical matter unless you can reach agreement on defining what revenue might go to the players. And that’s really hard.

Jack: George Springer’s FA contract: O/U $150 million?

Craig Edwards: He’ll be 31 next year and much of his salary was going to be dependent on him following up a great 2019 season after a merely good 2018 campaign, so 5/150 seems like it would be in the ballpark, but given all the uncertainty right now, I’m taking the under.

Guest: I’d like to see the players just make their own league and cut out the owners.  Is that even feasible?

Craig Edwards: Not really. A lot is made of the antitrust protection baseball has and it doesn’t hurt, but stadiums are the biggest issue. We’ve seen rival basketball and football leagues pop up over the last 70 years or so, but there are a ton of quality basketball arenas all over the country and college football means there’s an abundance of potential stadiums for them as well. Baseball doesn’t really have that. There are a lot of nice minor league stadiums, but nothing that comes close to MLB. Any startup trying to compete at the major league level in terms of revenue is going to fall way short.

Isolated Thinker: Are owners of teams with super profitable TV networks more likely to want a season as opposed to owners who do not?  Do you think there is a major battle between these owners behind closed doors that we don’t know about?

Craig Edwards: I think when basically every team is making a profit and MLB is cutting checks for $50 million, it is pretty easy to keep the smaller market teams happy and let the big market teams rake in huge amounts. If we are in a situation where some teams are profitable and others aren’t, there are more likely to be fights between owners about the best course forward. How that works in this case is difficult to say because some of those bigger market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox get a ton of money from games with fans, too. I think this isn’t a case where some teams necessarily do much better, but everybody is dropping down some so the teams that were already lower on the totem pole might want a bigger piece of the overall pie. The other teams will be reluctant to help them given their own revenue losses.

John: Do you see free agent salaries dropping for the off seasons of 2020 and 2021?  How might this affect Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, and others?

Craig Edwards: That’s really hard to say, though the market gets affected if even a couple potential suitors bow out. If the world looks great come November and MLB just completed a successful half season followed by playoffs and fans are going to be back in the stadium in 2021 maybe Mookie doesn’t get hit too hard, but it is difficult not to see a drop of what he’ll get now compared to what he might have gotten without the pandemic. Lindor is just too far out.

Pumpsie Green: Hi, Craig! If the owners want to save (more) money, how about a 60-game regular season? Then they’re only paying 37% of the full wage, plus they still get all the playoff tv money. Actually, 5 games a week July-Aug-Sept sounds better under covid anyway, giving them Mondays and Thursdays each week to clean after each series, and designated travel days. Plus less workload on the pitchers.

Craig Edwards: It wouldn’t surprise me if this part of the solution. The problem is we don’t know how many games teams need to play in the regular season to satisfy their RSNs. And that might vary from team to team. If 60 games doesn’t do it, then teams will still take a hit. If it doesn’t matter a whole lot, then yes, I could see a potential compromise solution with expanded playoffs to get more national revenue for the owners. That’s something the players would have to agree on, as well, though.

José: Hello, Craig. What about the retained salaries of Ellsbury, Chen and rest of released players (not deferred money) in case of a cancellation? How much are they going to get? Full pay? Thanks and great job!

Craig Edwards: I think Ken Rosenthal had an article on this over at the Athletic. Basically, those guys get paid. Cozart was the most interesting since he’s better off now than if the Giants had kept him around through spring training to see what he could do.

Craig Edwards: The other aspect of that is guys whose contracts are up at the end of the season with buyouts. They are at least going to get paid something this year, even if it isn’t until the end of the year.

John: At what point do ethical concerns over baseball reopening supercede your hunger for watching it? If I’m uneasy about watching football because of CTE, shouldn’t I also be uneasy about watching a sport sacrificing the health of its work force in a more potentially exponential way?

Craig Edwards: That’s a good question, but given the player’s current stance, it certainly seems there will be safeguards in place to help keep players safe. There’s also the difference in regards to hiding the potential dangers for decades. I don’t think it is wrong to feel uneasy and I wouldn’t tell you how to be a fan given it should be an enjoyable experience, but I am hopeful that when players do come back, it’s with the knowledge that they are doing so in a safe manner.

Pumpsie Green: Rockies, Tigers, O’s are the smallest losers in all this, right? They weren’t contenders yet they still get relief from some big contracts. The Rockies especially, not having to pay those reliever contracts, not having to worry about vesting options, and only paying a fraction of the Arenado, Story and Blackmon contracts that they will likely won’t be paying at all by next year.

Craig Edwards: If you are viewing it that lens, the Giants and Marlins are probably better off. I think the Rockies at least have an outside shot at contention. The Orioles are a team that could really use a full draft and international signing period while the Tigers have a couple young arms that could open their window of contention sooner than expected. Not this year, but getting a year of development from them could put them in position to have a shot in 2021 depending on what they AL Central looked like at the time.

John: In reply to the other John who brought up ethical concerns – I can say for sure I’m very, very uneasy watching and working around baseball now. The impact of how MLB treated it’s people this year is going to be implanted in my mind for a really long time

Jack: How many years do you think the owners use their media to cry about lost 2020 revenuez after this one? I’m talking including after Oakland, Tampa, Arizona, and expansion teams among others get their taxpayer dollars for stadiums

Craig Edwards: As many years as it is useful to do so.

Pumpsie Green: What are the bigger-ticket items owners will still be required to pay if the season is cancelled? Taxes, interest, other contracts, or am I missing something? Wages will be part of it, but will they be the biggest part? Wondering what the sunk costs would be, and the difference between that and what they could recoup by playing part of a season.

Craig Edwards: Debt, mostly. A lot of team make yearly debt payments from back when the team was purchased or when the stadium was built.

bob: Do you think either Wil Myers or Harrison Bader are decent bets for a rebound in 2020?

Craig Edwards: Myers is only 29 and he struck out 34% of the time last year after 27% the year before. I don’t think it would be impossible to be 5-10% better than average as a hitter if he cut down on the strikeouts.

Craig Edwards: As for Bader, he got really bad results off of lefties last year after crushing them throughout his career. If he can do that again, and get back to something closer to average as a hitter, that makes him an All-Star level player with his glove.

Leone for Third: Is the Mariner’s inability to win a World Series in the 90s when they had 4 active hall of famers in their prime on the roster the largest waste of talent in MLB history?

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure, but I doubt it. The Astros had a ton of talent and never won. Barry Bonds never won a World Series. Mike Trout’s never even won a playoff game.

Craig Edwards: Baseball teams have generally required depth and the postseason is crapshoot so it is hard to classify exactly what might be a waste.

Pumpsie Green: How damaging is it to the MLB brand if fans know that a partial season was there for the taking but internal squabbling stopped it from happening? It seems both franchise value for the owners and future earnings for the players are at risk in that scenario – all the blame and finger pointing that would undoubtedly happen isn’t going to make us love them more.

Craig Edwards: Very damaging. We aren’t necessarily talking 94-95, but it is going to look really bad for baseball if there is an opportunity to play and it doesn’t happen. The games are essentially advertising for the sport and not having games when it is reasonable to do so (which I’m not saying it is) misses a huge opportunity to market the game.

brad: Craig What happens when baseball opens on July 4th, on July 18th one player tests positive for corona, then on July 25th 30 players test positive for corona……

Craig Edwards: Depends on those 30 players. Is it one team, two teams? Spread throughout the league? It also depends on the quality and efficiency of the testing. They might be able to quarantine a few players or a few teams if they know how everything spread because they are going to have expanded rosters and a taxi squad for some players testing positive.

Bob Loblaw’s Knoblauch: Thanks for all the writing that you’ve been doing, Craig. Who’s your favorite player who was picked after the first five rounds?

Craig Edwards: Thanks. Albert Pujols comes to mind first.

J: In WAR models do utility players get value added for playing a lot of innings at different positions? Should they? Or put another way, would Chris Taylor (for example) get more WAR if he exclusively played SS (assuming he got the same amount of PA’s)?

Craig Edwards: They do not, save for the added playing time that nets them more PA, opportunities and runs over replacement. It’s great that Chris Taylor can play shortstop, but wouldn’t he be a better player if he were the best shortstop on the team and was good enough to play there everyday. By being a utility player, it is a bit of an admission that he isn’t as good, whether offensively or defensively. He’s good enough to keep playing at other positions, which has value, but I don’t see how it is as valuable as being the best shortstop on the team for a full season.

Woody: Is the proposed 20 man “taxi squad” just a substitute for AAA since it doesn’t look like there will be a minor league season? Is the assumption that those players don’t earn service time on the taxi squad correct? Will teams man the taxi squad with their “real prospects” (even some with no chance to reach the majors in 2020 e.g. Julio Rodriguez) and leave out the roster fillers or will the taxi squad be more like AAA depth?

Craig Edwards: That sort of depends on what the team wants. They might want a mix of ready talent like a Triple-A club mixed with a couple really good younger prospects to keep them close and help accelerate their development. I suspect it will mostly be players who can jump right in and contribute but it is possible that a few players who might not be completely ready get a chance this season.

John: Hey Craig, just wanted to say your articles have been a breath of fresh air. I’ve cited them frequently with friends and family, who are more casual observers and don’t fully comprehend the scale of a lot of these things. If my job/your jobs didn’t depend on baseball returning, I’d honestly be okay with the players union sticking it to owners and not playing this year. This whole ordeal from Manfred and owners has been truly sickening.

Craig Edwards: Thanks for risking family harmony to speak truth, John. I agree that baseball owners are doing the sport a disservice with the way they’ve handled things, but I’m still hopeful nobody will need to stick it to anybody when all is said and done and there’s a safe and fair resumption of the sport.

Bob Loblaw’s Knoblauch: Hot take: the baseball season is too long anyway.

Craig Edwards: I love the long baseball season. It’s part of what make the sport great. Plus it actually matters because playoff spots are still somewhat hard to come by.

Hank: How can MLB possibly handle the possibility of a fight breaking out on the field?

Craig Edwards: I’d really hope that the players wouldn’t do that. Really hope.

Farhandrew Zaidman: In retrospect, was Grienke’s 6 year $206.5 mil contract an overpay for the Diamondbacks, or actual market value?

Craig Edwards: Pretty close to market value, I’d say. And given that they got a decent prospect package for him in exchange for paying a little bit of the money owed says the same. It isn’t a contract I necessarily would have bet on given other alternatives, but it worked out fine.

Farhandrew Zaidman: What’s the best core of young players to never win it all? My hometown bias wants to say Kemp/Kershaw/Ethier/Martin/Loney but that can’t be the best.

Craig Edwards: I also agree that can’t be the best.

Craig Edwards: I don’t know what the answer is off the top of my head, but outside of Kershaw, there’s not another Hall of Famer in the bunch, maybe Martin, but Loney wasn’t ever really good and Ethier was only slightly above average.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Say the MLB and MLBPA inexplicably agree to a fantasy draft of all MLB and MiLB players for the 2020 season only. Rosters revert to normal for 2021. Who is the second pick after Trout? Who is the first MiLB player taken and in which round?

Craig Edwards: In a shortened season, I’m guessing it would be a pitcher with Cole most likely. Bellinger most likely position player to go second.

Jack: So wtfork happens to the already historically underrated C position once they add the automated strike zone?

Craig Edwards: We continue to have trouble evaluating and quantifying the production of catchers just like we have for decades.

Jack: 90s Indians

Craig Edwards: that’s a good one. Belle, Thome, Manny, Lofton.

Jack: Ian Happ: breakout big bat CFer to be?

Craig Edwards: I doubt it but possible, I suppose.

Travis: If you could develop an analytics related skill during quarantine, where would you focus?  What’s stopping you from getting there right now?

Craig Edwards: For me personally, I’d probably just dig deeper into pitch movement, spin rate stuff like that. What’s stopping me is just the lack of time.

v2micca: It looks like the discussion surrounding the concessions for the upcoming MLB season is the first time in a while that the MLBPA has had some serious leverage vs the owners.  But, to me at least, it doesn’t seem like they are using it to try to address some long term issues.

Craig Edwards: Players have a lot of leverage with the owners every time a CBA is up. They just didn’t get the deal they could have last time around. I don’t know if this is the time to try and seek a better long term deal when the current contract is up after 2021.

Craig Edwards: That’s going to do it for today. Thanks for all your questions.