Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 8/1/2019

Dodger Fan: Hi Craig. Can you help clarify something for me: why Lance Lynn is worth 1.0 WAR more than Ryu this season when 1) Lynn has only pitched 6 more innings than Ryu, 2) has a slightly worse FIP and, 3) has a much worse xFIP … this is a question disguised as a statement. Thank you in advance.

Craig Edwards: Lance Lynn pitches in a much more difficult park in a more difficult league and has twice the number of infield flies as Ryu and all of that goes into WAR. Their FIP- numbers, which account for league and park are 62 for Lynn and 66 for Ryu. That plus the infield flies, plus those extra six innings account for the difference.

Matt: Alright, Can you please explain why the Marlins would trade Gallen , but not Caleb Smith. I am struggling. It seems like if you could get a top 50 prospect for Gallen, the return for Smith would have been substantially greater. Given Miami’s competitive window, it would see to make sense to trade the guy that commands a larger return, is older, and has less team control.

Craig Edwards: It’s possible Arizona wanted Gallen and not Caleb Smith and they were the only team offering up a prospect as good as Chisolm. As for why other teams didn’t get in on Smith, it’s possible that the ask was simply very high. Many of the teams in need of pitching, particularly starters, seemed to make a few guys untouchable and didn’t leave much else to make a trade with.

Bo: Arizona got the pre-aging curve surplus value years from Greinke, and got to deal him (and his hefty price tag) in exchange for more prospects. Is buyer’s remorse really that bad in FA?

Craig Edwards: They also paid $26 million for those prospects and Greinke is still pitching well, which isn’t always the case. I think most teams can afford to have an albatross contract and be fine, but players in their 30s are a lot worse than they used to be because younger players are so much better. I wrote about that here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-trade-value-series-skews-young-again/

Craig Edwards: It doesn’t explain young stars like Harper and Machado, though both of them eventually got big contracts. The issue is that many of the game’s best players aren’t getting to free agency anywhere near their prime due to contract extensions.

Cito’s Mustache: What do you make of Dan Hayes’ piece yesterday that quoted a Twins source saying they’d have beaten the Mets package for Stroman if Atkins had bothered calling back? No way they would’ve included Graterol, right?

Craig Edwards: Hard to think they could’ve beaten what the Mets gave up without him. I think most are down the Jays return because the prospects are generally viewed as 45s in the 135-250ish range of prospects. If the Jays saw those players as 50s, even Graterol alone wasn’t going to be a better offer. It might have been better objectively, but perhaps not to the Jays.

NorCalNobody: Its so easy to knock the Mets because they are constantly disfunctional, however, looking at what they did (adding Stroman, holding Diaz, Wheeler, and Syndergard) impartially, it really looks like they have done well building for 2020. What a rotation that has a chance to be. And what a fun division that is going to be to watch

Craig Edwards: Not trading Wheeler seems like a pretty big misstep, still. The pick from the QO isn’t that valuable. It is weird that the team demanded only MLB-ready players when they could have just as easily gotten prospects, who could have then been dealt for MLB-ready players in the offseason. All that said, they did well in the Stroman deal, but they have a roster ill-equipped for his talents.

MiserableSDFan: When the Padres signed Machado, I was no longer a Miserable Padres Fan. While this season hasn’t gone as well as I’d like, there have been some great memories. Many of those were thanks to one Franmil Reyes. After seeing him get dealt to Cleveland, tell me why I shouldn’t be miserable again. Thanks, I’ll take the answer off line.

Jason N: Can the Padres win a title with AJ Preller leading them?  He seems great at building prospect depth but MLB roster building track record doesn’t look very good.  The Red Sox built a great farm system recently but didn’t start winning titles until they hired Dombrowski to turn that farm system into banners.  Feels like the Padres should consider doing something similar.

Craig Edwards: Franmil Reyes is a very fun player and I hope he keeps hitting in Cleveland, but San Diego has a lot of outfielders. If a team has a bunch of outfielders similarly valued, the best thing to do is to deal the one others value the most, and that was probably Reyes.

Craig Edwards: As for Preller winning, the team took a step forward this season, their young players have been as good or better than advertised and they amassed more prospects which they will presumably trade at some point to bring in the players they need to make a run at LA. This was always going to be a transition year and the team doesn’t need to go for players who have considerable trade value tied up in 2019 when they want to be better in 2020.

NorCalNobody: I have really paid attention to T. Kemp the last few years and i believe he was really only moved off of 2B because of Altuve, any chance he plays well enough to be the Cubs 2B?

Craig Edwards: I would have gone with Robles for a while longer, I think. I don’t think he is everyday starter material. He got a bit of a run at 2b with altuve gone and did about what you would expect from a bench bat. Ultimately, I think Zobrist comes back at some point.

Broken Bat: Was Cubs getting Casty from Tigers enough? Looking at remaining schedule and heavy Brewers, Pirstes

Craig Edwards: I don’t know about enough, but they still have the best team on paper in the NL Central. They need the bullpen to be better and hold up. Castellanos was a solid addition and should help the team, but the bullpen and the rotation will have a bigger say going forward than the offense.

Hello: Does your answer re Lynn/Ryu also explain why deGrom has 0.2 WAR more than Morton despite identical PPI and ERA, and deGrom with a slightly higher FIP?

Craig Edwards: ERA doesn’t come into it, but for those two the difference probably is infield flies.

Soto: The Cubs have $100m coming off the books, but will need to replace those pitchers. What do you see them doing?

Craig Edwards: That $100 million is a little illusory. Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and Contreras are all arbitration eligible which might cut $40 million off at the start. Options for Quintana and Rizzo take another $20 million and then you’ve just got $40 million. That’s a couple bullpen arms and a FA second baseman.

J: Worth noting that with Castellanos the Cubs can now shift Heyward to center and Happ to 2nd too

jkim: What’s more disappointing – Dodgers not adding anyone other than Kolarek to the bullpen, or the Yankees not adding another starter in terms of their WS chances?

Craig Edwards: I think the Yankees because they really needed another starter. They do have the division sewn up but they are putting themselves in a difficult spot if the guys they have don’t perform. A couple blowups and a really good outing from an opponent and they could be going home.

Paul: The press have pilloried Friedman et. al. for failing to acquire a reliever of more esteem than Kolarek at the deadline, but they haven’t explained what should have been done.  Pirates were comical in their demands for Vasquez, and Giles’s elbow was barking; what other elite relievers of the kind that will really move the needle were available for an unridiculous price?

Craig Edwards: They probably could have gone out and gotten a reliever that might have helped them even if they couldn’t land an elite guy. Plenty were traded for reasonable costs.

Guest: How come everyone is ok saying “playoffs are a crapshoot anything can happen” and at the same time saying “Yankees have no chance to get past the Astros now”?

Craig Edwards: Who is saying that. Are the same people saying both things?

Guest: The As and Mets have nearly identical playoff odds. The As were praised for going out and getting Roark while the Mets are being blasted for holding onto Wheeler. What’s going on here?

Craig Edwards: The Mets tried to trade Wheeler. That they kept him wasn’t a sign they thought they had a good shot at the playoffs given they shopped him at the deadline. They just didn’t get an offer they liked.

Guest: “A couple blowups and a really good outing from an opponent and they could be going home.” Doesn’t this apply to the Astros as well? What am I missing here?

Craig Edwards: It does. That’s why the playoffs are a crapshoot, but you lower the odds of a couple blowups with better pitching.

Cchat: Is the cardinals fade down the stretch inevitable? Have we seen the best of what this team can do? If they do fade, do you see anything changing front office wise?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think a fade is inevitable. They’ve got a 22% chance at the division and roughly 50/50 odds for a playoff berth. The projections know the rotation has holes and they still give the team a decent chance. The Cardinals might not fade, but they certainly could have given themselves more certainty in terms of making the playoffs by shoring up their biggest weakness, which has been there since February.

Craig Edwards: As for the front office, the team did just make a change in their analytics department, I believe, but in terms of changes at the top, I think the front office is doing about what they are supposed to be doing: Build competitive teams and hope for more without needing to go on a rebuild.

Soto: How good would the As be if they had the Mets’ money?  How bad would the Mets be if they had the As’ money?  I think that’s the difference between the two teams. One has a plan.

Craig Edwards: How good would the Mets be if they didn’t hamstring themselves with an average or worse MLB payroll despite being in New York. Teams that want to win now but don’t want to spend to get it inevitably set their teams back years trying to achieve that goal, and most of the time it doesn’t even work.

Rosters: So the Braves made all those trades the past two days…but I see no corresponding moves to put the pitchers on the roster.  Who got demoted ?

Craig Edwards: it takes a few days for guys to report sometimes so the moves don’t actually happen until then.

RMR: Is Dustin May going to stick in the rotation for a bit or is this just a 1-2 start thing?  Does he have the kind of stuff that could make him a TOR guy?

Craig Edwards: probably a 1-2 start thing and then bullpen at some point. Yes, to TOR, and probably mid-rotation by next year. He’s the 8th best prospect in baseball. HIs report is in here. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Tom: Are you surprised the Red Sox didn’t bring in a couple of crappy guys with MLB experience, just to avoid the “you did nothing” cries?

s: Vazquez aside, is it worth being disappointed in Pittsburgh’s deadline considering Cabrera and Liriano probably wouldn’t have fetched anything meaningful?

Craig Edwards: I put these questions together because doesn’t it seem like teams like this could have paired up. The Red Sox don’t have a system to trade from, but what’s Liriano going to cost? Teams don’t have to make a move just to make one, but making small marginal improvements might end up being the difference in a tight race.

Billy Beane: Hey Craig, thanks for the chat. Seems like if I’m the Mets, I should have traded Wheeler, even if I only got something like what the reds got for Roark, right? A Jameson Hannah-type seems a lot more valuable to the Mets than Zach Wheeler for 2 probably meaningless months.

Craig Edwards: I agree, and I’d be surprised if Houston wasn’t offering something similar.

Aaron Sanchez: How will Houston use me?

Craig Edwards: Everybody says bullpen, though a few starts after the team makes some suggestions on how to pitch might be in order as well just to see what they have.

PD: Does Harrison Bader need a change of scenery or is he just not that good?

Craig Edwards: He still needs to figure out how to hit right-handed pitching. He had a good season a year ago by destroying lefties and those numbers have come down so now his overall hitting line is bad. He doesn’t need to hit much to be an everday outfielder with his glove in center. I suspect he will rebound, whether it is with the Cardinals or elsewhere. Given who St. Louis has been playing in center, Bader still seems to have a pretty clear shot at playing time, even this season.

Chat Mapman: Do you like the Dodgers’ move to call up Dustin May?

Craig Edwards: It’s great. It’s using an old trope, but he’s better than a lot of the guys they could have traded for.

Richard: If the Astros have a plan to fix Sanchez, think they might consider making him do it in AAA?

Craig Edwards: They have an 8-game lead and a great team so not sure why sending him away from the MLB staff would be warranted. Probably get the best feedback from how MLB hitters respond.

AL: Do you think Dubon gets called up this year?  And is Duvall going to stick in atlanta’s OF?

Craig Edwards: Yes and No.

Jon: I’m really struggling with Atlanta’s acquisition of Melancon – paying the whole contract (~$18M for a guy worth half that at best) and sending a couple decent arms on top of it.  I’ve seen hardly any criticism directed towards the Braves (but meanwhile, Giants fans are dancing in the streets).  Is “we have the money, so it makes sense to get ripped off and overpay” really a valid reason for Atlanta to make this deal?  Am I crazy?

Craig Edwards: The Braves have a ton of money they haven’t tapped into and very minimal contract obligations for next season. Maybe they should have gotten Ian Kennedy instead, but Melancon has pitched pretty well this season. If he were a FA at the end of the year 2/18 isn’t too far out of line with what he might get. Hard to get too worked up over it when one of the guys they sent over in Winkler has already been DFA’d.

October: I am looking way ahead and presuming some stuff.  Would Houston align Greinke to start in NL home games in WS so they get his bat in there?  it is disappointing to not see him hit as frequently after this trade…

Craig Edwards: You certainly are. Greinke is the team’s third-best starter so he’d be lined up for game 3 in the NL park and game 7 in the AL park. If Cole and Verlander weren’t ready for game 1 or 2 and Greinke started game 1, he’d still get game 5 in the NL park. Kind of hard to set things up any other way with 2-3-2 format.

AL: Does the weak trade market for non-pitchers bode poorly for the FA market this winter?  Seems like no one is valuing any of the older guys as worth a shot.

Craig Edwards: Who are the free agents this winter? There’s Rendon and…Didi, maybe J.D. Martinez. Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Josh Donaldson. The FA crop is pretty weak so not sure if that will mean good contracts for the guys out there or just not much to talk about.

Angels: we sure did nothing yet again…  are you surprised that no trades for SP occurred in light of the losses the team has suffered this year?  thank you

Craig Edwards: Not totally surprised. Guessing the team is looking more toward 2020 at this point. They still need rotation help.

Guest: What happens with Clint Frazier now ?

Craig Edwards: Depends on what the Yankees actually think of him. He wasn’t enough of a headliner to get Robbie Ray. The team could see what happened with their outfield this season and keep him around as a corner outfield/DH, and that might end up being his best use for the Yankees.

Matt: With all the teams sitting on their hands(both buyers and sellers), were teams not offering enough or asking for too much?

Craig Edwards: Yes?

Craig Edwards: I’m sure it is both, but with all the extensions in spring, there weren’t a ton of pending FA available. With Bumgarner not moving, not a lot of pitching to be had so teams tried to get creative with guys with multiple years of team control, but the cost is justifiably high. Most teams seem to want to win in 2020 so they don’t want to give up players who might be good in those years. That creates a bit of an impasse as the players on both sides of these types of deals tend to be players who might help a contending team next season. The lack of pending FA made things very difficult this deadline.

Craig Edwards: Thanks for all the questions. That will wrap things up for this week.