Cubs Jump into Top Five in MLB Attendance
The early part of the Major League Baseball season presents an interesting paradox when it comes to interest and attendance. Fans have waited all winter for real live baseball, and Opening Day comes with big crowds and pageantry. After Opening Day, crowds tend to thin out a bit as people come to terms with the long season, and in many places, weather that is still less than hospitable to baseball. Comparing attendance this season to attendance at this time last season shows a still-healthy game with a few teams having made major jumps after successful seasons a year ago.
When looking at per-game attendance so far this season, it should come as no surprise that the usual names remain atop the board, per Baseball Reference.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, and New York Yankees were the top four in attendance last season — in that order — and those same four teams continue their grip on the attendance lead this year. The Chicago Cubs have swapped spots with the Los Angeles Angels while the Toronto Blue Jays have taken an edge over the Boston Red Sox. The bottom five teams are the same as the end-of-the-season numbers last year, although in a different order, as Tampa Bay Rays finished the end of the season last while Oakland A’s were ahead of the Chicago White Sox and the Miami Marlins.
As discussed in the opening paragraph, the beginning-of-the-season numbers are not necessarily reflective of how a team will do over the course of the year. Cold-weather teams tend to see their numbers increase as do teams that are competitive. Meanwhile, some warm-weather and domed teams along with non-competitive teams see their attendance fall. The chart below illustrates the difference between last year’s numbers at this time of year compared to the end of the season.
On average, the team per-game attendance average has climbed by nearly 1,500 fans. The Phillies all but gave up on the season last year, causing a big drop. Last year’s early-season enthusiasm for a Padres club that made big offseason moves quickly wore off. Those two clubs are the only ones to have lost more than 1,000 fans per game, while half the league has gained that much. Toronto’s 2015 campaign appears to have created a huge jolt for attendance. The same is true for newly-contending Houston. Many other clubs have simply benefited from warmer weather — and, in the case of the Cubs, finishing the bleachers partway through the season.
While in-season success can help teams with attendance, often the bigger, sustained push is felt the next year. Kansas City experienced a big jump in attendance last season, jumping up by about 9,000. As the chart above shows, little of that happened in-season, but rather as a product of their surprising 2014 run to the World Series. Kansas City’s successful repeat run to the World Series, this time ending with a victory, has helped attendance again. The graph below shows change in attendance from this point in the season last year to this point in the season this year.
Kansas City has seen a healthy increase of about 2,500 fans, but that’s only good enough for sixth place on this list. Of the top five teams to post gains, four went on surprising playoff runs last season. The Toronto Blue Jays have continued the big push they saw at the end of last season. The Astros have benefited, at least in attendance, from coming into the season with bigger expectations. The same is likely true for their counterparts in Texas, the Rangers.
The Chicago Cubs, benefiting from more seats and a team that refuses to lose, are posting big numbers so far. At the end of the current season, their disparity will not look quite as big, but they’re still looking at an increase of 2,000 to 3,000 fans per game. After losing the 2003 National League Championship Series to the Marlins, the Cubs drew over 3 million fans every year through 2011. After two straight fifth-place finishes in 2010 and 2011, however — which were followed by three more fifth-place finishes — the Cubs failed to draw 3 million fans for five straight years. Only construction prevented them from 3 million fans last season, and this season they should have no problem beating that mark.
The Angels have seen an increase so far this year, but they’re mostly taking back attendance they lost at the beginning of last season aren’t the only team to experience that sort of swing from year to year — although most of that is on the negative side so far this season. The Padres have given back all the gains they had at the beginning of last season, suggesting that, while an exciting offseason might provide an initial boost, the most important thing to do for a team to get attendance is to win.
Cincinnati had decent gains at the beginning of last season, perhaps in part due to excitement surrounding their role as hosts of the All-Star Game, but have given back those gains and then some after a terrible season and a poor outlook this year. Baltimore and Detroit are going to need to win after a difficult season last year, while Milwaukee is in for a tough season as they rebuild. Oakland still has stadium problems, while the National blew a big chance last year to get some momentum.
Most of the teams in the middle have little to worry about. Slight changes for clubs which already feature high attendance figures — so, for clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Giants — are of little concern. The Mets might have been hoping for a bigger boost after their great 2015 season, but perhaps they will see a bigger increase as the season wears on. Despite signing Zack Greinke, the Arizona Diamondacks have yet to see a big boost. The Yankees have one of the highest marks for attendance, but this is the second straight season they have lost more than 1,000 fans early in the season. Last season, no Derek Jeter was an excuse. This season, despite making the wild card last year, they have less of a reason for the drop, but it’s possible there simply isn’t quite the same amount of enthusiasm as there once was for an aging team.
Overall, attendance is on par with last season with just 11 fewer fans per game compared to this point in the season last year. Over the last six seasons, just one new stadium has opened, in Miami, but attendance has remained steady. That’s an important note, as there won’t be many new stadiums in the next five years either — although the Braves should see a considerable boost next season with a new stadium and hopefully, for Braves fans, a mostly new team. While television money rolls in, attendance is still incredibly important to revenue. As is usually the case, fans come for a good product and winning is the most important ingredient.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Great, another Craig Edwards Cubs puff piece 😉
This may be hard to correlate, but the weather in Boston until the past couple of weeks was unseasonably cold. I wouldn’t discount that for the Red Sox (or for other teams, for that matter).
It’s been pretty cold here in Chicago as well. The only game I’ve been to so far was a mid April night game. It was in the 40s. There were 35,000 people there on a Thursday night. We have had some beautiful days, but the fans are showing up regardless of the weather.
I have no doubt that weather is having an impact. It really is the only thing that can explain the poor attendance for Baltimore and Washington. Both teams are playing well right now, yet both of them have sharply lower attendance compared to last year. Meanwhile, it has not only been cold, but rainy for most of the month of May. Sure, they get the games in, but with so much rain and cold, fans probably are not willing to chance the game getting called.
The Orioles raised prices significantly, at least for season ticket holders. We saw an increase of about $6 / game, or nearly 25%. Wouldn’t be surprised if renewals were lower.
Obviously the Cubs attendance energy is pretty unstoppable, but otherwise weather in the midwest and northeast could be responsible for a majority of the decline in WSH, BAL, BOS, PHI, and BOS, maybe others
Would be interesting to see this as a percentage of stadium capacity. Boston and KC, to pick a couple of examples, are limited by the small size of their ballparks — and are likely to be higher than 8th/9th by sellout rate. Plus, having a smaller ballpark also constrains your ability to grow ticket sales after a good year.
On the other hand, while the Dodgers objectively have the highest attendance, it’s actually only ~80% of stadium capacity.
I came here to see if this post included anything on the Padres, as I was curious how their attendance would fluctuate from that offseason to a terrible product on the field. Glad it was included.
I think it’s also interesting to look at Arizona as a data point for all the people who claim that huge offseason splurges like theirs will do a lot to drive ticket sales. Seems like they’re up about 2k (From 23ish-25ish) Curious to know how much $ that translates to for the team.
Various sources peg the Diamondbacks as having among the lowest average ticket price, at around $18. 2K extra fans for 81 home games translates to about an extra $3M in revenue. Your Padres are also near the bottom, so hey if the product is bad at least it’s relatively cheap.
The Cubs, meanwhile, rank only behind the Yankees and Red Sox in terms of highest average ticket price ($51) and total fan cost (hot dogs, parking, etc), so they’re raking in the bucks.
I mean $ over the course of a full season (more specific than just the first couple months raise x average ticket price, but thank you for providing that, it gives some idea), since I imagine in a place like arizona, the early year, cold thing is not a huge deal so their attendance probably shouldn’t get a huge spike. I guess kids getting out of school could raise their attendance, but if they’re only at +2k right now, with how terrible they are playing, I wonder if they stand to see a regression in attendance.
He gave you the additional yearly ticket revenue of an additional 2k tickets (2000×81×18=2.916mil), however that doesn’t include merchandise, concessions, parking, possible increase in ad revenue due to increased attendance. He did mention that number was for the dbacks a cheaper ticket, 2k more tix per game is about 8 mil for the cubs.
Really? The focus is on the Cubs? The real story is how the Jays have managed to increase attendance by a third and from the graph it seems like they may have jumped nearly 10 spots in the rankings
How the heck are the Jays ahead of the Red Sox in attendance?? That is insane. No way that will continue.
Along with the increased attendance at Wrigley, they raised ticket prices across the board. I’m as diehard Cub fan as there is, but I’m tired of overpriced seats for crappy amenities. Peeing in troughs, hearding through the 3 main exits shoulder to shoulder, freezing on days when the weather is 60 degrees or cooler, and paying an arm and a leg for concessions is for the birds. Not to mention the fact that you either pay $30to park or deal with crowded trains or long ass walks. I went to 2 games so far at Wrigley North (Milwaukee) and I live in Central Illinois. Build us a new stadium, and cover the new walls in Ivy if you want the nostalgia.
You know they’re currently renovating the park, right? Have you ever wondered why?
I could sprinkle some gold dust on a pile of poop, but it would still smell like a pile of poop if you know what i mean. If the Cubs had a stadium like the Brewers in let’s say, the city of Rosemont (willing to give free land) how much better would their attendance be in a stadium that could hold 50k?
It’s not like they’re just slapping a fresh coat of paint on the place. They’re building new things. Cubs in Rosemont would just fuck up 90/294 traffic even more. As a season ticket holder, I’m very happy with the progress.
Glad you got a chance to get season tickets from the waiting list of 20,000 (at least when my mom was on the list 7 years ago.) Building a new stadium with some decent capacity is common sense. I understand they are building new things, but you can only add so much in the confined space that is Wrigley. Traffic on 90/294 sucks, but it would still be more accessible than getting to Wrigley right now. I’m interested to hear where you live and how easy it is for you to get to the ballpark as a season ticket holder. I personally enjoyed going to Sox games more when I lived in the city because of the convenience of getting in and out of the park, I’m just glad I never got mugged walking to and from State street where I parked for free haha.
I’m in Elgin. I work in Deerfield. When I go to games, I”m generally coming from work. I actually take 94 past both Irving Park and Addison and get off at Fullerton. There’s less traffic and you’re farther East. I park in Roscoe Village (free parking) and walk 20 minutes to the park. I used to live in that neighborhood, and Bucktown as well and I’ve always walked to games, so for me this isn’t very different. I agree it can be a hassle for some, but if you’re familiar with the surroundings, it’s really not a big deal. I can make it from work to the park in an hour and fifteen with traffic.
BTW… sorry for the snark… doesn’t lead to a good discussion. I know there are plenty of people that support a Rosemont Park and I do know the benefits.
A friend got the call before the 2015 season for the season tickets. We broke it up in 9 different shares (9 games each)… it seemed like a good time to get back into it.
Part of my hesitance comes from living in Denver. They turned the old industrial part of the city (LoDo) into bars and lofts, but coming from Chicago, the whole thing felt manufactured. To me if they built a ballpark in Rosemont, they’d try to recreate the Wrigleyville feel, but I’m scared that it would end up feeling just as manufactured and touristy. There’s plenty of other Mallparks, I personally enjoy having the real thing. Just my opinion, but I do get where you’re coming from.
I couldn’t agree more, Dscott. I love the Cubs, but this is the last season I’ll be buying tickets to go to Wrigley. All they’ve done is polish a turd. To make it worse, the fair weather fans are out in droves and the place is super crowded now.