Cubs Promote Kyle Schwarber… For Now

It’s raining prospects. Every time I check Twitter, it seems, I catch wind of yet another player who’s been summoned to the majors. The latest player to get the call is Kyle Schwarber, the power-hitting “catcher” in the Cubs organization. Schwarber made his big-league debut on Tuesday night as a pinch-hitter, and struck out in his lone plate appearance. Last night, he made his first major-league start, serving as the Cubs designated hitter. Schwarber made the most of this opportunity by going 4-for-5 with a triple.

Word from the Cubs is that Schwarber’s promotion is only a temporary one. The Cubs play their next five games in American League ballparks, which means they’ll need a designated hitter. The Cubs would be hard-pressed to find a better designated hitter than Schwarber. Although he lacks a real defensive position, he hit .320/.438/.579 in the minors this year. Schwarber’s 192 wRC+ in Double-A is the highest among qualified minor-league batters.

Since the Cubs took him fourth overall in last year’s amateur draft, Schwarber’s mashed to the tune of .326/.427/.598 and has belted 32 homers in just 136 games. Schwarber’s offensive exploits pre-date his professional career, however. He hit a loud .358/.464/.659 in his junior season at Indiana University. He lead the Big 10 Conference in homers, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And somehow, in spite of his 40-grade speed, he even managed to tie for the conference lead in triples.

So the man can clearly hit. Although he’s yet to play a single game at the Triple-A level, he’s already done enough in his brief professional career to convince Steamer that he’s ready to contribute in the big leagues. The projection systems — Steamer and ZiPS — project him for a respectable .246/.312/.434 for the remainder of 2015, which works out to a 103 wRC+. Above-average hitters aren’t very easy to find, even if they provide very little by way of defensive value.

I probably don’t need to tell you that KATOH’s all over Schwarber, but I’m going to tell you anyway: my system likes everything about this guy. He hits for absurd power, draws oodles of walks and doesn’t strike out all that often. Statistically speaking, he’s pretty much the full offensive package.

Considering his 2015 numbers, my system projects him for 11.7 WAR through age-28, up from 6.1 WAR after last year. Heading into the year, only five prospects — Joc Pederson, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell and Julio Urias — earned a higher projection than Schwarber’s current figure.

A list of comps should help to put some faces on Schwarber’s tremendous offensive upside. Using league-adjusted, regressed stats, along with age, I calculated the Mahalanobis Distance between Schwarber’s performance and every Double-A season since 1990 in which a batter recorded at least 400 plate appearances. Below, you’ll find a list of historical players whose performances were nearest and dearest to Schwarber’s, ranked from most to least similar.

Rank	Mah Distance	Name	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.46	Lance Berkman	3,248	27.8
2	0.52	Ozzie Timmons	399	0.1
3	0.80	Calvin Pickering	310	0.0
4	0.84	Carlos Pena	1,925	3.3
5	0.94	Carlos Delgado	3,430	18.8
6	1.02	Jayson Werth	1,129	7.2
7	1.15	Stanton Cameron	0	0.0
8	1.17	Curtis Granderson	2,896	20.1
9	1.18	Marc Krauss*	392	0.0
10	1.27	Ben Grieve	3,718	6.7
11	1.29	Jed Lowrie	1,307	5.9
12	1.40	Michael Cuddyer	2,367	7.3
13	1.46	Corey Koskie	1,631	10.7
14	1.48	Jason Botts	326	0.5
15	1.64	Morgan Ensberg	1,057	5.3
16	1.65	Aaron Luna*	0	0.0
17	1.67	Josh Phelps	1,333	1.8
18	1.67	Jim Bonnici	0	0.0
19	1.90	Jon Singleton*	362	0.0
20	1.93	Chris Duncan	1,317	3.3

*Batters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

And here’s a list containing only players who made the majority of their Double-A starts at catcher, which is Schwarber’s primary position. (For now, at least.)

Rank	Mah Distance	Name	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
1	0.94	Carlos Delgado	3,430	18.8
2	1.67	Josh Phelps	1,333	1.8
3	2.27	Carlos Santana	2,761	14.7
4	3.30	Josh Donaldson	1,691	15.3
5	3.42	Pete LaForest	121	0.0
6	3.49	Chris Snyder	1,682	4.5
7	3.70	Michael McKenry	607	1.4
8	3.83	JD Closser	508	0.0
9	3.98	Josmil Pinto*	280	0.9
10	4.01	Jonathan Lucroy	2,346	15.3

*Batters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

Both of these lists certainly have their fair share of excellent hitters. Lance Berkman — Schwarber’s top offensive comp — was essentially on the Hall of Fame track for the first half of his career. Carlos Delgado wasn’t too far behind, and like Schwarber, he was primarily a catcher through Double-A. Sure, there’s the occasional Calvin Pickering sprinkled in. But on the whole, Schwarber finds himself among some pretty fine company.

Schwarber may only be in the majors for a few days this time around, but sooner or later, he’ll be back for good. Where he winds up defensively, and how well he’ll be able to fake it at that position, remains to be seen. But, wherever he plays, Schwarber’s almost certainly going to hit. For the next few days, he gives the Cubs a solid designated hitter. But in the long run, he stands a good chance of being a force in the Cubs lineup for years to come. If the stats are any indication, Schwarber’s bat could be pretty special.