The Pirates MVP Is… Francisco Cervelli?

Everyone makes mistakes. Some marry people they shouldn’t. Some cheat on their taxes. Some refuse to eat their dinner and find out later I won’t give them dessert and then throw a holy fit that prevents me from starting my article on how Francisco Cervelli is the Pittsburgh Pirates MVP until very late. But I will persevere. Welcome to an article about how Francisco Cervelli is the Pittsburgh Pirates MVP!

In fact, this brief reflection on mistakes is relevant, as the Yankees seem to have made one when they dealt Cervelli to Pittsburgh last November for reliever Justin Wilson. It’s not that Wilson is lousy so much as Cervelli has been fantastic. But let’s consider only mistakes for the moment. The Yankees gave Brian McCann $85 million over five seasons to be their starting catcher before the 2014 season because he was (a) available on the free-agent market and (b) one of the few major-league catchers who’s both a good hitter and good defender. McCann’s defensive reputation was as strong as his hitting, and in addition, he consistently scored high in catcher-framing statistics according both to Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner throughout his career. If anyone is worth $17 million for five seasons in his early and mid-30s that sounds like a good candidate.

But then last season happened. McCann had one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, recording a 92 wRC+, although his pitch-framing skills helped keep him a valuable player. In 2014, he stole 68 strikes and added 10.2 runs via his framing alone, according to Baseball Prospectus. StatCorner says the number is 11.4. Either way that’s a win and a bit more. This season he’s back to hitting again (119 wRC+) but his pitch-framing numbers have taken a nosedive. Perhaps it’s not surprising that McCann would step back a bit in pitch-framing skill as he enters his age-31 season.

In February, Ben Lindbergh of Grantland found that catchers 6-foot-1 and shorter “have a higher average CSAA [Called Strikes Above Average, BP’s framing metric] and an almost imperceptible decline through the mid-thirties. The taller catchers peak lower and tail off earlier.” Brian McCann is 6-foot-3, so he’s a member of the second group. With almost 1,300 games caught in the majors to his name, it stands to reason the Yankees thought they were paying for McCann’s offense and defensive skill early in the contract while also funding his decline phase through the end of the deal. It’s conceivable they figured on getting McCann’s pitch-framing skills throughout the duration of the deal, but now there’s a good chance that, by the last few seasons of the deal, they might be paying McCann big money for defensive reputation alone.

This brings us back to Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli is 29 years old, two years younger than McCann, is paid under $1 million this season (less than 1/17 of McCann’s salary), and has the second-best pitch framing numbers in baseball by BP’s metric. To date this season, Cervelli has stolen 64 strikes and added 9.5 runs by his framing ability alone. StatCorner says he’s even better: they credit him for 89 extra strike calls, an enormous number considering the next highest is Buster Posey’s 71. They say his framing skills have been worth 11.9 runs above average. And oh, I should also mention Cervelli is listed at 6-foot-1 suggesting that his framing skills should age much better than McCann’s according to Lindbergh’s research.

As a defensive catcher this season, Cervelli is roughly league average or maybe a bit above. His arm has been below league average but this season is right at that standard, with 17 runners thrown out this season out of 57, right around the league average of 30%. McCann has thrown out fewer runners because fewer have tried to steal on him, likely a function of his defensive reputation as well as his pitchers’ ability to keep runners close and off balance with their leads. While McCann’s caught-stealing percentage of 45% is much higher than Cervelli’s, their career numbers are very similar.

But this isn’t meant to be a straight comparison. McCann cost the Yankees $85 million and their first-round draft pick. Cervelli cost the Pirates $1 million and Justin Wilson. If you were on a game show now and the host asked you if those two costs are equivalent, then congratulations: you’d win the matching his and hers garden gnomes!

Moreover, the Pirates are depending on Cervelli in a way the Yankees never could or would. He has played in 51 of the Pirates 65 games and hit .324/.404/.418 with a 136 wRC+ (through Tuesday’s games). Yes, he’s got a .405 BABIP boosting those numbers (though oddly he had a .408 BABIP last year in New York), but his value this season isn’t wholly a creation of batted-ball luck.

Who Cervelli is offensively is a bit difficult to parse because he spent so much time going up and down between the Yankees and their minor-league affiliates. He played 99 games for the Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees as recently as 2012. Even when he was in New York he rarely played consistently. He recorded 93 games in 2012, which looks like a lot, but it turns out he only got 317 plate appearances that season. The games played number is inflated because he entered many games late as a defensive replacement for late-career Jorge Posada.

If Cervelli remains healthy, he’ll shatter that number, which marks the most plate appearances he’s ever received in a season. To date, he’s walking almost 10% of the time and striking out at a relatively reasonable 19%. The power is never going to come for Cervelli, but the singles and walks sure have and when that value is supplemented by best-in-the-league pitch-framing, that’s an attractive package.

The Pirates’ current WAR leader is, shocker, Gerrit Cole at 2.4 with Andrew McCutchen 0.1 behind. Cervelli is just behind them with 2.0. But when you add in his pitch-framing abilities, Cervelli has (by the numbers, at least) been the Pirates MVP through two-and-a-half months. That’s a statement in itself, though one that also requires the acknowledgement that the season isn’t half over yet — nor, since I seem to insist on making this comparison, is Brian McCann’s contract. It’s not even that paying McCann was a bad decision for the Yankees: they were and are still paying for certainty of performance as much as anything else. Even so, it’s interesting to think that maybe New York could have been better off playing Cervelli and letting someone else pay for Brian McCann’s great-great-grandkids’ college educations. Whether that’s the case or not, the Pirates are the big winners here. They got at least half a season of a team MVP for a mediocre relief pitcher.