Daily Notes: Contract Crowdsourcing, Starters (Part 1)
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.
1. Contract Crowdsourcing: Starting Pitchers (1 of 3)
2. Reminder Photo: Scott Baker
3. SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters
Contract Crowdsourcing: Starting Pitchers (1 of 3)
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series (which is something that happened on Sunday). FanGraphs is asking readers to estimate the years and average annual dollar values likely to be received by certain notable free agents. We continue today with the first third of this free-agent class’s notable starting pitchers. (Click here for more on the contract crowdsourcing project.)
Other positions: Catchers / First Basemen / Second Basemen / Third Basemen / Shortstops / Corner Outfielders / Center Fielders / Designated Hitters / Right-Handed Relievers / Left-Handed Relievers.
Player Page: Scott Baker
Player Page: Joe Blanton
Player Page: Ryan Dempster
Player Page: Gavin Floyd
Player Page: Zack Greinke
Player Page: Jeremy Guthrie
Player Page: Dan Haren
Reminder Photo: Scott Baker
Just to remind everyone — because he pitched zero innings this year — here’s what possible free agent Scott Baker looks like:
And here’s what he looks like within the sexy boudoir of the Parade Suite at the Bonnemare Manor:
SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters
SCOUT Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall Leaague. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.
| Player | Team | Age | PA | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Mcguiness | Saguaros | 24 | 57 | 2.5% | 11.1% | 18.7% | 115 |
| Adalberto Santos | Scorpions | 24 | 42 | 1.9% | 11.8% | 17.4% | 113 |
| Kent Matthes | Rafters | 25 | 48 | 2.2% | 10.0% | 17.2% | 111 |
| Cory Spangenberg | Javelinas | 21 | 25 | 2.0% | 11.7% | 19.0% | 110 |
| Jonathan Schoop | Solar Sox | 20 | 41 | 1.9% | 12.4% | 19.5% | 110 |
| Trayce Thompson | Rafters | 21 | 38 | 2.2% | 12.0% | 21.3% | 110 |
| Joe Panik | Scorpions | 21 | 47 | 1.5% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 109 |
| Brock Kjeldgaard | Desert Dogs | 26 | 33 | 2.9% | 9.8% | 22.6% | 109 |
| Nick Franklin | Javelinas | 21 | 43 | 2.2% | 10.3% | 19.2% | 108 |
| Nate Roberts | Javelinas | 23 | 34 | 1.6% | 11.2% | 17.1% | 108 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: Prospect-Age AFL Hitters
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the AFL, but only populated with players who are 22 or under — i.e. more distinctly of “prospect” age relative to the league.
| Player | Team | Age | PA | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Spangenberg | Javelinas | 21 | 25 | 2.0% | 11.7% | 19.0% | 110 |
| Jonathan Schoop | Solar Sox | 20 | 41 | 1.9% | 12.4% | 19.5% | 110 |
| Trayce Thompson | Rafters | 21 | 38 | 2.2% | 12.0% | 21.3% | 110 |
| Joe Panik | Scorpions | 21 | 47 | 1.5% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 109 |
| Nick Franklin | Javelinas | 21 | 43 | 2.2% | 10.3% | 19.2% | 108 |
| Christian Vazquez | Saguaros | 21 | 30 | 2.0% | 11.4% | 19.7% | 108 |
| Brian Goodwin | Rafters | 21 | 50 | 2.5% | 10.9% | 22.3% | 108 |
| Matt Szczur | Solar Sox | 22 | 63 | 1.4% | 10.8% | 15.8% | 107 |
| Jonathan Singleton | Solar Sox | 20 | 69 | 2.4% | 10.5% | 21.7% | 106 |
| Ricky Oropesa | Scorpions | 22 | 33 | 1.9% | 12.3% | 21.9% | 106 |
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No mention of Jake Peavy here?
He’s more likely to have his option declined than Gavin Floyd.
Scott Baker has expressed interest in staying with the Twins already. Expect a two year deal with the first year being incentive laden and the second year to be a team option for considerably more money. Signed within two weeks. Bank on it.
Yes, it’s difficult when you think he will stay with the team, but they won’t exercise the option… My guess would be some sort of deal where the AAV is about the same amount as the option (but year one would be less than the option amount) – but that’s not a very crowdsourceable answer.
Zack Greinke – 6 years $175M – Angels
That sure would be a whole lot of money just between two players. Especially in the 5th and 6th years of Grienke’s deal when he and Pujos would both be well past 30
Nearly 30 million a year? Call me crazy, but that sounds crazy.
Yeah no kidding…I’ll take the WAAAAAAAY under.
6 years at nearly $30 million per season?!? Yikes! If this did happen, I would not be a happy Angels fan. A couple years after Weaver takes a “town friendly” deal, they overpay Greinke for his 2009 season?! The guy is good, but not $30 million dollars a season good.
Grienke back to Milwaukee… 5/$100. He likes our coffee.
30 million hahaha. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. I would love to see the Angels pay 55 million to Pujols and Greinke over the next six years. Maybe they should extend Vernon Wells too at 20 per.
Perhaps a bit high. But at say $5.5M a win, Greinke has to be projected as a 5 win pitcher for next year. He is only 29.
Albert Pujols had been worth about 8 wins a season before signing with the Angels. Did he get 44 million dollars a year?
$/win estimates break down for elite players given the risky nature of long-term contracts and the inherent improbability of repeated elite performance for reasons independent of individual players.
Also you have to remember that MLB teams will probably hand out contracts based on ERA and Greinke has been about a 3-4 win player based on ERA since 2010.
5.5mil a win?
So Dave mistakenly keeps repeating 5mil/win the last 2 offseason as he tries to feed the inflation narrative, and people now think that is reality, and now tack on 0.5mil?
A win on the free agent has been about 4.5mil for the last 4 years.
I know there has been this great narrative “inflation!” ” TV contracts!” “massive spending on the horizon” but it is the same thing every offseason – a few guys sign early for a lot, people write stories about inflation, the bargains sign late, people don’t care about these and they don’t fit the inflation narrative.
Hamilton and/or Greinke will get paid, Dave will write another “see I told you inflation was coming article” and then when all is said and done a win on the FA market will be in the 4.5-5mil range and it will not be as significant as the prisoner of the moment analysis articles after the first few big contracts will have you believe.