Daily Notes: Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
2. Video: Cuadrangular de Evan Gattis
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League

Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values
Before the end of the season, FanGraphs asked readers to project what sort of contracts the league’s free agents would receive, both in terms of years (Yrs) and average annual value (AAV). Now, in mid-December, many of those same free agents have received actual, real-live contracts.

Below are the (sortable) results for those same players who’ve received contracts. The headings preceded by a lower-case c designate the crowdsourced results. The headings preceded by a lower-case a designate the actual results. Finally, headings with a lower-case d designate the difference between the crowdsourced and actual results, wherein a positive result represents those instances where the crowd was particularly optimistic about a player.

Player	Team	cYrs	cAAV	cTot	aYrs	aAAV	aTot	dYrs	dAAV
Brandon McCarthy	ARI	2.4	$10.0	$24.0	2	$7.8	$15.5	0.4	$2.3
Eric Chavez	ARI	1.4	$4.8	$6.7	1	$3.0	$3.0	0.4	$1.8
David Ross	BOS	1.9	$4.8	$9.0	2	$3.1	$6.2	-0.1	$1.7
Maicer Izturis	TOR	2.1	$4.6	$9.5	3	$3.0	$9.0	-0.9	$1.6
Jeff Keppinger	CHA	2.0	$5.5	$11.0	3	$4.0	$12.0	-1.0	$1.5
Koji Uehara	BOS	1.9	$5.7	$10.6	1	$4.3	$4.3	0.9	$1.4
Marco Scutaro	SF	2.3	$7.8	$17.7	3	$6.7	$20.0	-0.7	$1.2
Mike Adams	PHI	2.3	$6.7	$15.1	2	$6.0	$12.0	0.3	$0.7
Scott Baker	CHN	1.8	$6.1	$11.1	1	$5.5	$5.5	0.8	$0.6
Melky Cabrera	TOR	1.7	$8.2	$13.7	2	$8.0	$16.0	-0.3	$0.2
Angel Pagan	SF	3.2	$10.1	$32.4	4	$10.0	$40.0	-0.8	$0.1
Joe Blanton	LAA	2.1	$7.5	$16.0	2	$7.5	$15.0	0.1	$0.0
David Ortiz	BOS	2.1	$13.0	$27.8	2	$13.0	$26.0	0.1	$0.0
Jonny Gomes	BOS	1.5	$5.0	$7.5	2	$5.0	$10.0	-0.5	$0.0
Russell Martin	PIT	2.4	$8.2	$20.1	2	$8.5	$17.0	0.4	-$0.3
Mike Napoli	BOS	3.5	$12.4	$42.8	3	$13.0	$39.0	0.5	-$0.6
Jeremy Affeldt	SF	2.0	$5.3	$10.6	3	$6.0	$18.0	-1.0	-$0.7
Dan Haren	WAS	3.0	$11.7	$34.6	1	$13.0	$13.0	2.0	-$1.3
Ryan Dempster	BOS	2.8	$11.7	$32.7	2	$13.3	$26.5	0.8	-$1.5
Jeremy Guthrie	KC	1.8	$6.1	$10.8	3	$8.3	$25.0	-1.2	-$2.2
B.J. Upton	ATL	4.5	$12.6	$56.6	5	$15.1	$75.3	-0.5	-$2.4
Shane Victorino	BOS	2.7	$10.3	$27.6	3	$13.0	$39.0	-0.3	-$2.7
Torii Hunter	DET	2.2	$10.3	$22.4	2	$13.0	$26.0	0.2	-$2.7
Hiroki Kuroda	NYA	1.7	$12.2	$20.6	1	$15.0	$15.0	0.7	-$2.8
Kevin Youkilis	NYA	2.2	$9.2	$20.2	1	$12.0	$12.0	1.2	-$2.8
Anibal Sanchez	DET	4.0	$13.0	$52.2	5	$16.0	$80.0	-1.0	-$3.0
Josh Hamilton	LAA	4.8	$20.3	$97.3	5	$25.0	$125.0	-0.2	-$4.7
Zack Greinke	LAN	5.7	$18.6	$105.8	6	$24.5	$147.0	-0.3	-$5.9

On average, to this point, the crowd has overprojected years by about 16% — with the one-year contract to Dan Haren departing most significantly from the crowd’s estimate (of three years). On average, the crowd has (very slightly) overprojected average annual value by about 3% — with the crowd’s projection of $4.8 million per year for Eric Chavez representing their most optimistic projection.

If a pattern has emerged from the results available so far, it does appear as though the crowd has underestimated the average annual value amounts of the league’s biggest contracts. Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton, Anibal Sanchez: each will be earning $3 million or more per season than the crowd projected.

Video: Cuadrangular de Evan Gattis
Here’s video of Atlanta prospect Evan Gattis — currently the top hitter in the Venezuelan League among players 25 or younger — video of Gattis hitting a home run in the Venezuelan Winter League.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Venezuelan Winter League
Below are the current SCOUT leaderboards for the Venezuelan Winter League. (Ages as of July 1st, 2012. Players listed with most recent team. Click here for more on what is SCOUT.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Hitters
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	Pos	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Luis Jimenez	Mariners	30	DH	174	3.5%	17.7%	13.2%	152
Carlos Maldonado	Nationals	31	C	186	4.5%	14.2%	20.4%	138
Luis Valbuena	Cubs	26	2B	177	2.5%	16.6%	14.7%	133
C.J. Retherford	Dodgers	26	3B	224	2.9%	13.4%	12.1%	133
Evan Gattis	Braves	25	C	182	4.5%	6.8%	14.3%	128
Chris Nowak	IND	29	3B	132	3.2%	12.7%	15.4%	128
Salvador Perez	Royals	22	C	107	4.0%	6.8%	12.4%	126
Justin Henry	Tigers	27	OF	106	1.3%	14.4%	10.5%	121
Carlos Rivero	Nationals	24	3B	209	3.6%	10.0%	18.7%	119
Luis Rodriguez	Mariners	32	SS	181	1.2%	14.4%	10.5%	119

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Hitters (Prospects)
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League, but only populated with players who are 25 or under — i.e. something more like “prospect” age relative to the league.

Player	Team	Age	Pos	PA	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Evan Gattis	Braves	25	C	182	4.5%	6.8%	14.3%	128
Salvador Perez	Royals	22	C	107	4.0%	6.8%	12.4%	126
Carlos Rivero	Nationals	24	3B	209	3.6%	10.0%	18.7%	119
Darwin Perez	Angels	22	SS	179	2.2%	19.5%	24.6%	118
Wilmer Flores	Mets	20	SS	166	2.6%	8.1%	12.7%	113
Yangervis Solarte	Rangers	24	OF	150	1.7%	9.8%	10.0%	112
Ezequiel Carrera	Indians	25	CF	97	2.1%	11.8%	15.6%	112
Darin Ruf	Phillies	25	1B	137	4.5%	11.4%	29.5%	111
Jairo Perez	Twins	24	3B	119	2.6%	6.8%	12.3%	109
Henry Wrigley	Rays	25	OF	189	4.4%	6.5%	23.3%	109

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Pitchers
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Alex Torres	Rays	24	12	12	51.1	219	32.4%	9.4%	60
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	Nationals	27	10	8	44.2	181	28.2%	7.6%	66
Enrique Gonzalez	NPB	29	24	0	24.2	94	27.7%	8.0%	69
Danny Farquhar	Mariners	25	21	0	24.0	98	25.9%	8.4%	75
Seth Etherton	N/A	35	6	6	27.1	112	24.9%	7.7%	75
Deolis Guerra	Twins	23	18	0	22.2	89	24.9%	8.2%	77
Jarrett Grube	Mariners	30	7	7	27.2	120	24.8%	9.5%	81
Cesar Jimenez	Mariners	27	19	0	17.2	75	23.2%	8.3%	82
Josh Schmidt	Marlins	29	10	10	57.2	240	23.4%	8.7%	82
Jon Meloan	Yankees	27	19	0	20.2	84	22.8%	8.5%	83

SCOUT Leaderboard: Venezuelan Winter League Pitchers (Starters)
Here is the SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Venezuelan Winter League, but only populated with pitchers who’ve made at least half of their appearances as starts.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Alex Torres	Rays	24	12	12	51.1	219	32.4%	9.4%	60
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	Nationals	27	10	8	44.2	181	28.2%	7.6%	66
Seth Etherton	N/A	35	6	6	27.1	112	24.9%	7.7%	75
Jarrett Grube	Mariners	30	7	7	27.2	120	24.8%	9.5%	81
Josh Schmidt	Marlins	29	10	10	57.2	240	23.4%	8.7%	82
Sergio Perez	Astros	27	12	12	58.0	249	21.3%	8.0%	86
Eric Berger	Indians	26	9	9	45.0	191	19.9%	7.8%	89
Donovan Hand	Brewers	26	7	7	34.1	148	18.9%	8.0%	92
Thad Weber	Tigers	27	5	5	23.1	106	18.9%	8.3%	93
Sean Gallagher	Reds	26	6	4	24.2	107	18.2%	8.1%	94