Daily Notes: Every Team’s Park-Adjusted Home-Run Rate

May 10, 2013

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Table: Every Team’s Park-Adjusted Home-Run Rate
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Table: Every Team’s Park-Adjusted Home-Run Rate
The reader might be surprised to learn — as the author was surprised to learn — that the Cleveland Indians currently lead the entire major leagues in home runs. Nor is their success merely an illusion of park factors. In fact, Cleveland’s Progressive Field allows home runs at a rate somewhat below league average.

Below are the raw and adjusted home runs totals and rates for every major-league team currently. Note that home-run park factors for Mariners, Mets, and Padres don’t reflect all recent structural changes to those teams’ respective home parks. Note also that park factors have already been halved for use on full season stats.

Here is every team’s park-adjusted home-run rate:

Rank	Team	PA	HR	HR%	HR PF	aHR	aHR%
1	Indians	1233	49	4.0%	96	51	4.1%
2	Braves	1289	48	3.7%	98	49	3.8%
3	Rays	1279	40	3.1%	97	41	3.2%
4	Blue Jays	1342	45	3.4%	105	43	3.2%
5	Pirates	1241	36	2.9%	94	38	3.1%
6	Yankees	1233	42	3.4%	111	38	3.1%
7	Brewers	1204	38	3.2%	103	37	3.1%
8	Red Sox	1345	39	2.9%	95	41	3.1%
9	Mets	1198	34	2.8%	93*	37	3.1%
10	Cubs	1264	40	3.2%	104	38	3.0%
11	Rockies	1333	45	3.4%	112	40	3.0%
12	White Sox	1157	38	3.3%	112	34	2.9%
13	Angels	1350	38	2.8%	97	39	2.9%
14	Mariners	1300	36	2.8%	96*	38	2.9%
15	Orioles	1330	41	3.1%	109	38	2.8%
16	Rangers	1277	39	3.1%	109	36	2.8%
17	Diamondbacks	1371	38	2.8%	103	37	2.7%
18	Nationals	1221	31	2.5%	100	31	2.5%
19	Athletics	1440	34	2.4%	93	37	2.5%
20	Cardinals	1245	28	2.2%	91	31	2.5%
21	Astros	1310	33	2.5%	104	32	2.4%
22	Tigers	1324	32	2.4%	102	31	2.4%
23	Phillies	1297	31	2.4%	104	30	2.3%
24	Padres	1264	26	2.1%	90*	29	2.3%
25	Twins	1198	25	2.1%	92	27	2.3%
26	Giants	1326	27	2.0%	93	29	2.2%
27	Reds	1378	33	2.4%	110	30	2.2%
28	Royals	1169	22	1.9%	92	24	2.0%
29	Dodgers	1248	23	1.8%	98	23	1.9%
30	Marlins	1293	19	1.5%	97	20	1.5%

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Chicago NL at Washington | 19:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
Right-hander Jeff Samardzija starts for Chicago NL. A table relevant to that is this one, featuring the leaders (among starting pitchers only) in average fastball velocity:

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#	Name	Team	IP	vFA
1	Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	44.1	95.4
2	Jeff Samardzija	Cubs	43.2	94.9
3	Garrett Richards	Angels	26.0	94.8
4	Allen Webster	Red Sox	7.2	94.8
5	Matt Harvey	Mets	49.1	94.7

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television.

Cleveland at Detroit | 19:08 ET
The earliest returns on the new Standings tool here at the site reveal that the Tigers are currently projected to win the AL Central by ca. 13 games — in which sentence the author has italicized the word projected to emphasize the natural conservatism of projections and, therefore, the unlikelihood of such an optimistic result in favor of Detroit.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.1.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Jeff Samardzija	CHN	9	5	6	3	5	WAS	Ross Detwiler	19:05
Corey Kluber*	CLE	8	10	9	7	10	DET	Max Scherzer	19:08
Yovani Gallardo	MIL	3	7	6	4	10	CIN	Tony Cingrani	19:10
Wandy Rodriguez	PIT	5	7	5	8	4	NYN	Shaun Marcum*	19:10
Edinson Volquez	SD	1	4	4	7	6	TB	Alex Cobb	19:10
Ramon Ortiz*	TOR	3	4	5	9	6	BOS	Jon Lester	19:10
Tommy Hanson	LAA	1	4	1	0	0	CHA	Dylan Axelrod	20:10
Jason Hammel	BAL	1	7	2	4	0	MIN	Mike Pelfrey	20:10
Phil Hughes	NYA	7	5	6	6	4	KC	Wade Davis	20:10
Alexi Ogando	TEX	5	4	4	5	3	HOU	Dallas Keuchel	20:10
Jon Garland	COL	3	7	6	1	9	STL	Shelby Miller	20:15
Tyler Cloyd*	PHI	5	1	4	5	3	AZ	Ian Kennedy	21:40
Jose Fernandez	MIA	10	0	6	2	6	LAN	Matt Magill*	22:10
Dan Straily*	OAK	8	6	7	4	7	SEA	Hisashi Iwakuma	22:10
Tim Hudson	ATL	6	9	6	5	4	SF	Matt Cain	22:15

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.

10 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Benzedrine

13 years ago

Maybe Angel Hernandez was trying to suppress the park factor for home runs to its normal rate the whole time!

Rian WattMember

May I humbly suggest a new feature for the Daily Notes?

Where you currently are in the habit of writing

“The average NERD Game Score for today is X,”

where ‘X’ represents the average NERD Game Score for today (that day), you might instead write:

“The average NERD Game Score for today is X, ranking today as the Yth most exciting day of baseball in the Z days since the season began. The day with the highest average NERD Game Score since the season began was A”

Where ‘X’ once again represents the average NERD Game Score for today (that day), ‘Y’ represents the number of days, plus one, where the average NERD Game Score was higher than today’s (that day’s), ‘Z’ represents the number of days on which regular season Major League baseball has been played in 2013, inclusive of today (that day), and ‘A’ represents the day in 2013 in which the highest average NERD Game Score was attained. You may adjust the two letters following the value for ‘Y’ (st, nd, rd, th) as the accepted rules of English grammar dictate.

It is my general feeling that such an addition to the (traditionally) penultimate sentence of the Daily Notes would greatly increase general enjoyment of said Notes and would also lower many readers’ cholesterol, thereby prolonging their lives.*

*There is as yet no scientific basis for this claim.

Reply to Rian Watt

Gosh, it’s hard to write that way for any length of time. I tip my cap* to you, Carson Cistulli.

*I am not currently wearing a cap, but there is currently one sitting on the corner of my cabinet and it is indeed tipped at something of a jaunty angle, so I consider the verity of this sentenced unimpeached.

I will add my support to this motion.

Also, I could envision this leading to prediction contests at the beginning of the year (albeit a terrible contest), of the date with the highest Nerd score.

TKDC

Can you do the same thing, but adjust for the fact that the AL has the DH and the NL does not?

Well-Beered Englishman

You remarked on a notable fact about Jeff Samardzija, so may I remark on a notable fact about Ross Detwiler.

Pitch Type Leaderboard: Fastball%
1. Ross Detwiler (90.8%)
2. Bartolo Colon (89.4%)
3. Lance Lynn (75.2%)
4. Juan Nicasio (74.9%)
5. Shelby Miller (74.2%)

PITCHf/x differentiates between Detwiler’s traditional (46.6%) and sinking (44.0%) fastballs.

Wil

Reply to Well-Beered Englishman

Holy crap. 90% usage on fastball? Why even swing at anything else?

Brian ReinhartMember since 2016

Reply to Wil

Nota bene, however, that he has two very different fastballs with dramatically different movements, and they come from the same release point. Uses the sinker to generate groundballs.

MikeS

As a life long White Sox fan I must protest the NERD score for this years team.

It is much too high.

bgburek

Soon good ‘ol Mark Reynolds will get his strikeout rate back up to 33% and then the HRs will stop coming