Daily Notes: High-Quality Information for Everyone’s Use

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Three Notable California League Peformances
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A California League
3. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

Three Notable California League Peformances
The leaderboards for the High-A California League are below. Here are brief notes on three players from those leaderboards — like who they are mostly, for example.

• “But that was in the California League” is a reasonable comment to append to any statement one might make with regard to a particularly promising line from a hitting prospect. It’s a comment one might reasonably append, as well, to the observation that Oakland first-base prospect Max Muncy’s has eight home runs in his first 85 plate appearances this season — especially in light of how Muncy hit only four of them in 274 plate appearances last season in the Midwest League. One might say all of this with one caveat: Muncy’s raw numbers are excellent so far, but so are his numbers/rates relative to league average. He’s both hitting home runs and controlling the strike zone better than his peers in the California League.

• Diamondbacks right-hander Archie Bradley is combining performance with his already excellent pedigree. Here’s where he ranked on Marc Hulet’s preseason top-100 list: 26th. And on Baseball America’s: 25th. And on Bullpen Banter’s: 26th, again. Bradley has made four starts and recorded at least eight strikeouts in each of them. According to Jason Cole of Baseball Prospectus, Bradley was sitting at 93-95 in a late-March spring-training start.

• San Francisco right-handed prospect Clayton Blackburn appeared on last season’s final SCOUT pitching leaderboard for all of Class A — not very far behind, in fact, both Jose Fernandez and Dylan Bundy — on the strength of a 143:18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 131.1 innings. Marc Hulet ranked him second among all Giants prospects this offseason, noting that Blackburn “possesses a four-pitch mix with above-average control and solid command. He also features a potentially-plus curveball, slider and changeup.”

SCOUT Leaderboards: High-A California League
Previously considered: Triple-A International League (April 10) / Triple-A Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Double-A Eastern League (April 12) / Double-A Southern League (April 16) / Double-A Texas League (April 17) / High-A Carolina League (April 22).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the High-A California League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard, gentleman author?” perhaps a person is asking somewhere — to which question that same author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail.

Below, as I say, are those leaderboards for the High-A California League. (Note: statistics current as of Monday.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: California League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the High-A California League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all California League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Max Muncy	Athletics (A+)	22	85	8	16	12	4.2%	13.2%	17.8%	147
Dan Paolini	Mariners (A+)	23	74	2	13	9	2.3%	12.2%	17.4%	121
Nolan Fontana	Astros (A+)	22	82	2	17	15	2.2%	13.9%	20.2%	120
Andrew Aplin	Astros (A+)	22	74	1	11	5	2.0%	11.2%	14.7%	120
Raywilly Gomez	Diamondbacks (A+)	23	74	0	17	10	1.6%	14.2%	18.1%	118
Matt Duffy	Astros (A+)	24	58	4	5	8	3.1%	9.0%	19.1%	117
Robert Kral	Padres (A+)	24	37	3	6	6	2.9%	10.4%	21.0%	116
Lee Orr	Padres (A+)	24	61	5	5	13	3.4%	8.8%	22.0%	115
Preston Tucker	Astros (A+)	22	75	5	5	14	3.3%	8.2%	20.6%	115
Dominic D’Anna	Reds (A+)	24	74	3	7	12	2.6%	9.2%	19.4%	112

SCOUT Leaderboard: California League Hitters (Age 22 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the High-A California League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Max Muncy	Athletics (A+)	22	85	8	16	12	4.2%	13.2%	17.8%	147
Nolan Fontana	Astros (A+)	22	82	2	17	15	2.2%	13.9%	20.2%	120
Andrew Aplin	Astros (A+)	22	74	1	11	5	2.0%	11.2%	14.7%	120
Preston Tucker	Astros (A+)	22	75	5	5	14	3.3%	8.2%	20.6%	115
Jacob Lamb	Diamondbacks (A+)	22	23	2	7	7	2.7%	11.6%	23.7%	111
Travis Jankowski	Padres (A+)	22	74	0	8	6	1.6%	9.7%	15.4%	110
Austin Hedges	Padres (A+)	20	62	1	7	8	2.0%	9.8%	18.5%	109
Alex Yarbrough	Angels (A+)	21	78	2	5	12	2.3%	8.1%	18.8%	106
Chris Taylor	Mariners (A+)	22	89	0	16	20	1.5%	13.1%	22.5%	104
Ryan Casteel	Rockies (A+)	22	29	3	0	8	3.0%	7.8%	23.5%	104

SCOUT Leaderboard: California League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the High-A California League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all California League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Archie Bradley	Diamondbacks (A+)	20	4	4	23.2	94	35	7	31.7%	8.8%	73
Bryce Bandilla	Giants (A+)	23	6	0	11.0	44	24	7	31.9%	9.6%	75
Jacob Brown	Athletics (A+)	26	7	0	13.0	49	19	0	27.8%	8.3%	83
Carlos Contreras	Reds (A+)	22	4	4	20.2	81	27	6	28.4%	8.8%	83
Andrew Barbosa	Diamondbacks (A+)	25	3	3	16.0	67	25	11	29.1%	10.0%	84
Travis Ballew	Astros (A+)	22	6	0	6.2	28	15	3	28.3%	9.2%	84
Edwin Escobar	Giants (A+)	21	3	3	14.2	56	20	2	27.4%	8.5%	84
Clayton Blackburn	Giants (A+)	20	3	3	17.0	62	21	2	27.2%	8.4%	85
Jonathan Joseph	Athletics (A+)	25	6	0	10.0	37	15	1	27.0%	8.7%	86
Luis Cruz	Astros (A+)	22	4	2	16.7	65	22	8	27.4%	9.5%	87

SCOUT Leaderboard: California League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the High-A California League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Archie Bradley	Diamondbacks (A+)	20	4	4	23.2	94	35	7	31.7%	8.8%	73
Carlos Contreras	Reds (A+)	22	4	4	20.2	81	27	6	28.4%	8.8%	83
Andrew Barbosa	Diamondbacks (A+)	25	3	3	16.0	67	25	11	29.1%	10.0%	84
Edwin Escobar	Giants (A+)	21	3	3	14.2	56	20	2	27.4%	8.5%	84
Clayton Blackburn	Giants (A+)	20	3	3	17.0	62	21	2	27.2%	8.4%	85
Luis Cruz	Astros (A+)	22	4	2	16.2	65	22	8	27.4%	9.5%	87
Benjamin Alsup	Rockies (A+)	24	4	4	20.0	87	26	7	26.8%	8.9%	87
Kramer Sneed	Angels (A+)	24	3	3	16.1	60	19	2	26.2%	8.5%	88
Frank Garces	Padres (A+)	23	3	3	14.0	60	18	3	25.5%	8.6%	90
Andrew Granier	Athletics (A+)	24	4	4	20.0	89	26	12	26.5%	9.8%	91

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Kansas City at Detroit | 19:05 ET
Max Scherzer has struck out precisely two-fifths of the 75 batters he’s faced so far this season and is also the hero of a real-time epic poem called The Life and Philosophy of Max Scherzer, which he himself is writing in a meter of his own invention.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio

Los Angeles NL at New York NL | 19:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
The author is preaching to a figurative choir when he announces to the readership that Clayton Kershaw (28.2 IP, 77 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR) is very good. He’s preaching to an actual choir when he says: “Please, stop singing and being in my one-bedroom apartment. How did you get in here, anyway. Please stop, whatever the answer. I have to finish these Notes.”

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: New York NL Television

Chicago NL at Cincinnati | 19:10 ET
Left-hander Tony Cingrani struck out over a third of the batters he faced in his first major-league start last week against Miami — and did so, as expected, with a fastball-heavy approach (81.4%, it seems). Note: perhaps watch this on the Cubs feed because, among other reasons, Cubs broadcaster Jim Deshaies is a scholar and a gentleman and maybe reading this.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Chicago NL Television

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

***Note: the following does not include (because no odds were available for them on Tuesday morning) either the first (15:10 ET, Mike Minor vs. Jeff Francis) or second (20:40 ET, Julio Teheran vs. Jon Garland) game of the Atlanta-Colorado doubleheader.***

Game	Teams	Starters	IP	xFIP-	WAR	—–	Line	Win%
19:05	St. Louis Cardinals	Adam Wainwright	29.0	52	1.5	|	1.94	50.5%
ET	Washington Nationals	Ross Detwiler	20.0	103	0.4	|	1.98	49.5%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Pittsburgh Pirates	Jeff Locke	15.2	147	-0.4	|	2.44	40.2%
ET	Philadelphia Phillies	Cole Hamels	23.2	110	0.1	|	1.64	59.8%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Chicago Cubs	Carlos Villanueva	21.0	88	0.2	|	2.47	39.7%
ET	Cincinnati Reds	Tony Cingrani	5.0	65	0.1	|	1.63	60.3%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	Los Angeles Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	28.2	77	0.6	|	1.70	57.7%
ET	New York Mets	Jon Niese	23.2	116	0.1	|	2.32	42.3%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:10	Milwaukee Brewers	Yovani Gallardo	22.1	104	0.4	|	1.80	54.4%
ET	San Diego Padres	Clayton Richard	15.1	141	-0.4	|	2.15	45.6%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:15	Arizona Diamondbacks	Patrick Corbin	19.0	107	0.3	|	2.22	44.2%
ET	San Francisco Giants	Matt Cain	22.2	109	-0.1	|	1.76	55.8%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
18:30	Oakland Athletics	Bartolo Colon	19.0	93	0.4	|	2.08	47.1%
ET	Boston Red Sox	Alfredo Aceves	14.1	118	-0.3	|	1.86	52.9%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Kansas City Royals	Wade Davis	16.0	80	0.3	|	2.54	38.6%
ET	Detroit Tigers	Max Scherzer	19.0	47	0.9	|	1.60	61.4%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:05	Toronto Blue Jays	R.A. Dickey	23.0	99	0.2	|	1.87	52.4%
ET	Baltimore Orioles	Miguel Gonzalez	18.0	147	0.0	|	2.06	47.6%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
19:10	New York Yankees	Phil Hughes	14.0	103	-0.2	|	2.58	38.0%
ET	Tampa Bay Rays	David Price	23.0	84	0.0	|	1.58	62.0%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Cleveland Indians	Zach McAllister	17.1	91	0.5	|	2.10	46.7%
ET	Chicago White Sox	Jose Quintana	17.2	88	0.6	|	1.84	53.3%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	Seattle Mariners	Hisashi Iwakuma	26.2	87	0.3	|	1.83	53.7%
ET	Houston Astros	Bud Norris	19.0	124	0.1	|	2.12	46.3%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
22:05	Texas Rangers	Alexi Ogando	19.0	84	0.4	|	1.89	52.0%
ET	LAA Angels	Jason Vargas	14.2	132	0.1	|	2.04	48.0%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
14:10	G1 Miami Marlins	Ricky Nolasco	23.1	110	0.2	|	2.40	40.9%
ET	G1 Minnesota Twins	Kevin Correia	21.1	105	0.3	|	1.66	59.1%
—	—	—	—	—	—	|	—	—
20:10	G2 Miami Marlins	Jose Fernandez	15.0	73	0.5	|	2.15	45.6%
ET	G2 Minnesota Twins	Mike Pelfrey	12.1	129	0.3	|	1.80	54.4%