Daily Notes: Regressed Italian League Stats, For Some Reason
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Regressed Italian League Stats, For Some Reason
2. Video Footage: The Craig Kimbrel of Italy
Regressed Italian League Stats, For Some Reason
A man does not always know what he’s doing. Perhaps, in fact, he never knows what he’s doing.
Regardless of the precise frequency, what’s clear is that the author of this post — for reasons that have yet to be revealed — spent a considerable portion of Tuesday night first (a) copy-and-pasting Italian baseball league stats into an Excel file, and then (b) formatting and applying a simple regression to those same stats, so’s to produce the leaderboards one finds below — which is to say, SCOUT-type leaderboards for that same Italian baseball league
What’s a SCOUT-type leaderboard? A SCOUT leaderboard is essentially an attempt to — utilizing Russell Carleton’s excellent work on the reliability thresholds of various metrics — to produce something meaningful from small sample sizes. (Click here for more on that.)
Below are the final SCOUT leaderboards for the first division of the Italian Baseball League’s 2012 season, which appears to have taken place between late March and July. Ages are as of July 1st, 2012.
By way of reference, below are the teams in the IBL. It’s probably fair to say that each of these Italian cities is built atop a charming medieval hill.
BOL – Unipol Bologna
GOD – De Angelis Godo Knights
GRS – Grosseto Baseball
NET – Danesi Caffe Nettuno
PAR – Cariparma Parma
RIM – Rimini Baseball
RSM – T&A San Marino
NOV – Elettra Energia Novara 2000
SCOUT Leaderboard: Italian League Hitters
Below is the final SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Italian Baseball League. SCOUT+ is calculated using regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates, where 100 is average and above 100 is above average.
| Player | Team | Age | Pos | PA | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo Sanchez | GOD | 31 | C | 172 | 3.8% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 160 |
| Osman Marval | PAR | 25 | C | 179 | 3.1% | 11.1% | 7.8% | 150 |
| Maximiliano De Biase | RIM | 37 | 1B | 159 | 1.8% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 139 |
| Joseph Mazzuca | RSM | 31 | 1B | 177 | 2.8% | 13.2% | 16.9% | 134 |
| Mario Chiarini | RIM | 31 | OF | 189 | 2.7% | 11.6% | 16.4% | 129 |
| Giuseppe Mazzanti | NET | 29 | CIF | 165 | 0.8% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 127 |
| Claudio Liverziani | BOL | 37 | OF | 180 | 2.4% | 13.5% | 18.9% | 127 |
| Juan Carlos Infante | BOL | 30 | SS | 196 | 1.7% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 125 |
| Lorenzo Avagnina | RSM | 31 | OF | 200 | 0.7% | 13.0% | 8.5% | 125 |
| Anderson Machado | PAR | 31 | SS | 114 | 2.0% | 14.4% | 21.2% | 120 |
SCOUT Leaderboard: Italian League Pitchers
Below is the final SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Italian Baseball League. SCOUT- is calculated using regressed strikeout and walk rates where 100 is average and below 100 is above average.
| Player | Team | Age | Arm | IP | TBF | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santo Hernandez | NET | 28 | RHP | 42.2 | 149 | 48.9% | 12.9% | 29 |
| Francisco Cruceta | RIM | 30 | RHP | 79.2 | 271 | 44.0% | 11.9% | 40 |
| Pete Sikaras | GRS | 33 | RHP | 64.0 | 214 | 40.7% | 10.9% | 46 |
| Rodney Rodriguez | RSM | 30 | RHP | 75.0 | 264 | 37.1% | 12.4% | 60 |
| Marcos Tabata | RIM | 26 | RHP | 36.2 | 124 | 33.5% | 11.8% | 69 |
| Jesus Matos | BOL | 37 | RHP | 84.1 | 269 | 30.1% | 9.2% | 71 |
| Chris Cooper | RSM | 33 | LHP | 75.1 | 240 | 30.0% | 9.5% | 72 |
| Ricardo Hernandez | NET | 24 | LHP | 89.1 | 295 | 30.5% | 10.4% | 73 |
| Juan Figueroa | NET | 37 | RHP | 77.0 | 255 | 31.0% | 11.0% | 74 |
| Tiago Da Silva | RSM | 27 | RHP | 81.2 | 262 | 27.5% | 9.4% | 79 |
Notes
• Four of the players listed here are included on Italy’s provisional roster for the World Baseball Classic: pitchers Chris Cooper and Tiago Da Silva, and outfielders Lorenzo Avagnina and Mario Chiarini.
• Catcher and top hitter Danilo Sanchez (of the Dominican Republic) was a member of the Detroit, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis organizations between 2001 and -07. He slashed .284/.361/.524, with 22 home runs in 399 plate appearances, for Detroit’s High-A Lakeland affiliate in the Florida State League — although, as was generally the case throughout his minor-league career, he was old (24) for the level. Baseball Reference has a surprisingly robust biographical entry for Sanchez at BR Bullpen.
• Over the last three seasons, Atlanta right-hander Craig Kimbrel has posted strikeout and walk rates of 45.3% and 9.9%, respectively. This past season, in the Italian League, Nettuno right-hander Santo Hernandez posted basically the same rates. Of note: according to Baseball Reference, Hernandez also pitched — and pitched well — for Camden of the independent Atlantic League this season, posting a 20:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15.0 innings there.
Video Footage: The Craig Kimbrel of Italy
Here’s footage from this past season, it seems, of right-hander Santo Hernandez striking out three Rimini batters:
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Correction: Craig Kimbrel is the Santo Hernandez of the US
Seems Osman Marvel was a switch hitting catcher with zero plate discipline who has gained a lot in the last 2 seasons. Do IBL players ever make it back to the states and in the Majors?
Off the top of my head, Jason Simontacchi pitched in Italy before he caught on with the Cardinals. A few players have returned to the affiliated minors after playing in Italy, although Dave Nilsson is the only one who immediately comes to mind.
“T&A San Marino”
Sorry, Washington Nationals. I have a new favourite team.
I’ll just leave this here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGdQvqbIexk
How can you not go with GOD? No way they can lose.
From that clip I surmise that Italian baseball is like baseball but without any fans.
Also with really wonky camera work. But the total lack of fans is rather bizarre, especially since it’s a 3-1 game in the 9th.
The problem is the games take too long because the players can never tell the difference between coaches giving signal and just talking with their hands.
I hope baseball catches on in Italy. I think the Italians would really appreciate pitching. They could call pitches “belisima!”
Being Italian, and being a baseball fan, and having played against or with most of the above mentioned player (mainly the Italian ones) I feel morally obliged to comment this post.
What you wrote before is essentially true: IBL is not a terrible league, but without fans; I guess the average attendance is about 200 people and, in most of the ballparks, you don’t even have to pay to enter the gates.
As regards the teams home cities being all charming and medieval, Carson, I am sorry to contradict you, but Novara is probably one of the least charming cities of Europe, being in the middle of a foggy plain where rice is cultivated, thus creating the perfect natural habitat for mosquitos. BILLIONS of mosquitos. I played a night game against them (5 no-hit innings with many BBs) some years ago and I had serious problems pitching from the windup because the mechanichs took too long and allowed mosquitos to land on my face.
That said, it was nice to read a post about baseball in Italy here on fangraphs! I will root for at least a win / a good game against Canada and Mexico (hoping they will preserve their best pitchers for other games!)!
You are destroying my illusions, signore!
Otherwise, excellent stuff here. Might I ask where are the nicest places to play / cities to visit in the IBL?
It’s me again, with a different name.
Well, it depends on what you favor for a possible holiday here: baseball or tourism?
Just a quick overview of the IBL cities:
-San Marino: never been there actually, but it looks like a charming medieval town on a hill (you were right on it!) and they are one of the best teams year in, year out (a good friend of mine, Lorenzo Avagnina plays there)
-Rimini & Godo: they are quite close to each other and San Marino is half an hour from Rimini, so the area is definitely worth a visit to increase the likelihood of assisting to some baseball here. From a touristic perspective, the area could be a bit overcrowded during summer, as it is full of clubs visited by people from all over Europe (and nothing more, basically), so it really depends on what you like.
– Parma, Bologna (and MAYBE Reggio Emilia): they lie on a line, it’s one hour by car from Parma to Bologna and Reggio is somewhere in between; I still don’t know if Reggio will take part to IBL ’13. Parma and Bologna usually field good, competitive teams and the audience is among the most competent ones you could find in Italy. They are rather small cities, but surely worth a visit (Bologna and Parma, mainly). The food there is really amazing, so I would recommend at least a short stay there. By the way, they are not that far from the three cities mentioned above (consider 2+ hours from Parma to Rimini).
-Nettuno: probably the most interesting Italian baseball experience; you can find all the best aspects of Italian baseball (Nettuno usually field a promising young crop of Italian-born players; a lot of people attending to ballgames -which, in Italy, means 2000-3000 at most!-) and all the worst aspects of Italy (they are not always “polite”, but it is part of their folklore!). Nettuno is one hour away from Rome, so it has a big positive from a touristic perspective.
-Novara: I already told you about the city, not worth a visit. The team as well is pretty lousy, even though many of my former teammates are going to play with them and I hope they could improve their team. The only positive side of Novara is that it lies in between Torino (my city) and Milano which are, respectively an interesting city for a couple of days and a European shopping hub. They are connected via high-speed trains, so it is quite convenient to visit them both.
All in all, consider that IBL games take place only during weekends. The last decade it was: Friday night (Thursday night for televised games) for foreign pitchers; Saturday afternoon for foreign pitcher with Italian passport and Saturday night for Italian born pitchers. Because of economics problems, they are planning to reduce to two games per week, always during weekends. This is not completely bad news, since you could take the rest of the week for visiting Italy and, maybe, move from one place to another!
If you require any further detail, just ask, it will be a pleasure to help, signore!
Sir! I can’t reply on your lower post, but thank you very much for the information. A very helpful reference!
I played with a fellow in 1992 who had pitched in the Italian League several years before. He said the rate was 50k dollars at that time, an apartment, and a car. Girls were free.
While the girls may not have any initial investment costs the maintenance costs would be huge. Scooters and designer handbags do not purchase themselves.
You can’t fool me into thinking that’s not a Marlins game! Look at those jerseys, its so obvious!
Also, I remember a Phillies fan back in 2003 telling me how much better Anderson Machado was going to be than Jimmy Rollins.
I don’t see the stats for the pope.
Interesting and funny to read post, Carson.
Good job.
I’m Emilio, from Italy, happy to read some italian-baseball-related articles.
Did you know you have italian readers? now you know.
Baseball in Italy is considered a ‘minor’ sport. No tv coverage. No printed-magazine coverage. The player train more days than they play. But they train (almost) like the Pro. And the (few) fans know baseball like the Pro.
No surprise to me, to see Osman Marval in that position: he’s the best catcher defensively and offensively speaking I saw in more than the last ten years in Italy. I’d say he was the only real baseball player of the 2012 IBL season.
I will repost your article in my blog.
Dear Carson
I apologize …. And I Know that you probably get bored during this long offseason… But please
As in italian baseball fan, when i first red this article i tought “wow…someone in the baseball home nation (and not just someone but fangraphs) is interested in our players!! cool!” but suddenly,
continuing reading, overall the comments, my good sensation blew up and a sad smile taken place on my face. So, this is (correctly)the way we are perceived in Us.
A nice country where to live, and visit (I really appreciated your comment Federico even if starting from baseball and ending as an IBL travel agency let me a bit sad), with the pope and
full of people talking with theyr hands (i admit that this one make me sincerly laugh really much, i m not sarcastic).
Probabily the sense of the article and all of the comments are correct and Federico did right to show our national beauties, really nothing bad with it.
Compile an IBL scout leaderboard was an hazardous overall if compared to an mlb scout leaderboard.
Our national baseball is still too far from US baseball.
We suffer the competition with Soccer (our main sport), baseketball and volleyball. Italian media, unfortunatly, do not have attention at all for Baseball.
Watching an IBL game on the telly (if you are lucky at 02.00 a.m. on thursday ) its so sad that you probabily prefer to watch an economic conference in a local channel.
The point is that is indipendent from the baseball level of the game. Just One fixed camera and a so boring speaker that is just a good way to fallen in sleep.
BUT, running the risk to go OT, I don’t think all this stuff fully reflects our entire movement.
We have some good points, that i would like to show you, just with the purpose to help to understand italian baseball and nothing more:
1) There are more baseball diamonds in Italy than all the europe and this means that baseball is more popular locally than nationally
2) Italy won in the final game with Dutch, the last european baseball title
3) The techincal level of our coaches is excellent and professional
4) Talking about numbers, We have a good youth movement (and this is strictly linked to our national team’s results)
5) A new era of mangers is growing up (and i m talking about the national baseball federation) able to work with social networks, and new media tools
We have to persist with it! and this is why WBC 2013 its so important for us.
Even if as a fan, i always think we have the chance to win, its more important for the movement just to be there.
Thanks Carson!
Italian baseball fans are rare and few but the fans who do follow it really love it as a passion and lifestyle and are actually more analytical and knowledgable about the game rather than the average USA fan who goes to a game cuz it is trendy and to get a hotdog and have fun with friends but not really to watch or understand the game itself.I am a US born citizen but played in Italy for 25 seasons and their fans really get the game and how it is to be played,true diehards. Ciao Danny Newman.