Daily Notes: Saturday’s Games, Considered for Your Pleasure
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Featured Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Featured Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay, 19:10 ET
On Who’s Starting This Game
One of the players starting this game is right-hander Trevor Bauer for Cleveland, who (a) was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Indians this offseason in a three-team deal and (b) is known for having idiosyncratic thoughts on pitching mechanics and (c) is known for having idiosyncratic other thoughts, as well.
Regarding Bauer, Why He’s Starting
Bauer is starting because Cleveland left-hander Scott Kazmir has recently been placed on the disabled list with a rib situation.
Regarding the Term “Rib Situation,” What It Means Medically
So far as the term “rib situation” is concerned from a medical point-of-view, what it means is that there’s an effing situation with Scott Kazmir’s ribs.
On Who Else Is Starting This Game
Another starter who’s starting this game is Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Cobb, who posted this line in 23 starts for the Rays last year: 136.1 IP, 18.6% K, 7.0% BB, 58.8% GB, 3.51 SIERA, 86 xFIP-, 2.0 WAR.
Regarding Alex Cobb, What’s Responsible for His Ground-Ball Rate
The two pitches most responsible for Alex Cobb’s rather high ground-ball rate in 2012, according to PITCHf/x, were his curveball (76.1% GB) and changeup (67.6% GB).
Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Arizona at Milwaukee | 19:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
This game features a promising pitching matchup, with the rather young Patrick Corbin (120.0 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.8 WAR projected line, according to Steamer) faceing the young-ish Mike Fiers (135.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.9 WAR). Of note: it appears as though Milwaukee will be without both Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, the former suffering from neck spasms; the latter, a sprained knee.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.
Chicago NL at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
Young Atlanta right-hander Julio Teheran (68.0 IP, 4.40 ERA, 0.5 WAR projected line, per Steamer) makes his season debut for the Braves. He posted the best regressed line of any pitcher this spring — an accomplishment that boded well for the best pitchers of spring training in 2012. He’ll pitch in front of what is probably the best center-field camera angle in the majors.
Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.
Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).
Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order, first, of National League and then American League and, finally, then interleague play.
| Game | Teams | Starters | Line | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:10 | Washington Nationals | Ross Detwiler | 2.04 | 48.0% |
| ET | Cincinnati Reds | Mike Leake | 1.89 | 52.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 13:10 | Miami Marlins | Ricky Nolasco | 2.37 | 41.4% |
| ET | New York Mets | Jon Niese | 1.67 | 58.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 16:05 | St. Louis Cardinals | Shelby Miller | 2.26 | 43.4% |
| ET | San Francisco Giants | Ryan Vogelsong | 1.73 | 56.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:10 | Chicago Cubs | Carlos Villanueva | 2.43 | 40.4% |
| ET | Atlanta Braves | Julio Teheran | 1.65 | 59.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Patrick Corbin | 2.18 | 45.0% |
| ET | Milwaukee Brewers | Mike Fiers | 1.78 | 55.0% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 20:10 | San Diego Padres | Tyson Ross | 2.31 | 42.5% |
| ET | Colorado Rockies | Jon Garland | 1.70 | 57.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 21:10 | Pittsburgh Pirates | A.J. Burnett | 3.14 | 31.2% |
| ET | Los Angeles Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw | 1.43 | 68.8% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 13:05 | Boston Red Sox | John Lackey | 2.33 | 42.1% |
| ET | Toronto Blue Jays | J.A. Happ | 1.69 | 57.9% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 13:10 | Seattle Mariners | Felix Hernandez | 1.77 | 55.4% |
| ET | Chicago White Sox | Dylan Axelrod | 2.20 | 44.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 16:05 | LAA Angels | Tommy Hanson | 2.08 | 47.1% |
| ET | Texas Rangers | Matt Harrison | 1.86 | 52.9% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:05 | Minnesota Twins | Vance Worley | 2.42 | 40.5% |
| ET | Baltimore Orioles | Chris Tillman | 1.65 | 59.5% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:10 | Cleveland Indians | Trevor Bauer | 2.50 | 39.2% |
| ET | Tampa Bay Rays | Alex Cobb | 1.61 | 60.8% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:10 | Oakland Athletics | Bartolo Colon | 1.77 | 55.4% |
| ET | Houston Astros | Erik Bedard | 2.20 | 44.6% |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| 19:05 | Kansas City Royals | Luis Mendoza | 2.26 | 43.4% |
| ET | Philadelphia Phillies | John Lannan | 1.73 | 56.6% |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
wonders why there aren’t more groundball pitchers who use offspeed instead of sinkers…..
I think with slower pitches the hitters have more time to react, so they can adjust a little and try to get under the ball
you seem to be missing the detroit vs ny yankees match-up from that table…
The bookmakers come out with opening lines the night before, but that game was off the board for whatever reason.
What about the Orioles game where Chris Davis can set baseball history by hitting home runs in the first 5 consecutive games ( passing the current mark of 4 shared by Willie Mays, Mark McGwire, Nelson Cruz)? The guy has 11 home runs in 11 games going back through last season and something like 20+ RBIs. Should be some fun at bats to watch tonight.
I always like those short-run accomplishments. They’re almost always a mix of all-time legends and dudes who just had a great run at the right time. The guys with elite true talent are overrepresented, but not enough to shut out a much larger pool of other guys.
Chris Davis also has a monkey.
Things like this are a great reminder about probabilities and reality, and it’s fun to root for things that are very unlikely to happen but yet are right there on the verge.
I spent some time trying to figure out how to express the dissonance that I feel from the Nerd Rankings being removed… But I could not come up with anything
They’ll be back, starting in May. Just need to establish some larger samples for them to mean much, I think.
Truly, Carson respects the power of the NERD.
HOW DO YOU NOT LIST THE YANKEES GAME??????? THIS IS A TRAVASHAMOCKERY
Does this article post daily?
Sometimes.
Do people really think the center field camera in Atlanta is the best one?
I wish that Kazmir didn’t have that rib situation. I wanted to see him pitch.
Given his ground-ball tendencies, Cobb may be referred to commonly as a worm burner. Though Cobb would vouch that no worms, or any other invertebrate were set ablaze during his time on the mound.
Will we be seeing NERD scores again this year?
So the winners of the last three World Series are playing each other today, in a repeat of last year’s NLCS, with one of the most promising rookies in baseball on the mound for one of the teams … and the “notable games” are D-Backs vs. Brewers and Cubs vs. Atlanta.
Right.
NO ONE AROUND HERE RESPECTS THE GIANTS! THERE IS A SORE LACK OF REVERENTIAL TONES AND GENUFLECTING WHEN THEY’RE BEING DISCUSSED IF THEY’RE EVER DISCUSSED AT ALL!
I can’t overstate how much better the Braves’ radio broadcasters are over the TV broadcasters. I suspect that sometimes, when people say that, it’s because their TV guys try to be balanced (either out of awareness that other teams fans occasionally see them, or just because of their sense of broadcast ethics) while their radio guys feel free to be complete homers.
In this case, however, you get a lot of stupid observations and typical homerism from the Atlanta TV crew, but some nice insight from the radio crew. You have a fairly SABR-savvy guy in Jim Powell paired with a Hall of Fame pitcher in Don Sutton, who has an old school mentality. They strike a good balance and they’re both open-minded, so you listen to some nice interaction. They’re both well informed, they have a good sound, and they understand their craft.