Daily Notes: The Eastern League’s Earliest Top Performances

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for the Eastern League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

SCOUT Leaderboards for the Eastern League
Considered recently: International League (April 10) / Pacific Coast League (April 11).

On Monday, in the Notes, we considered the earliest statistical returns from the majors, according to SCOUT. What follows is a very similar thing to that, except for the Double-A Eastern League.

“What actually is SCOUT?” a reasonable person might ask — to which question the author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available.

Below are those same leaderboards, as I say, for the Double-A Eastern League, followed by some brief comments. (Note: doesn’t include games from Thursday, for reasons that have everything to do with the author’s love affair with sleep.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Eastern League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Double-A Eastern League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Eastern League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Ryan Schimpf	Blue Jays (AA)	25	29	3	7	6	2.9%	11.4%	20.6%	116
Josmil Pinto	Twins (AA)	24	33	3	5	5	2.8%	10.2%	19.3%	115
John Tolisano	Blue Jays (AA)	24	28	2	6	3	2.5%	10.9%	18.7%	114
Steve Souza	Nationals (AA)	24	26	1	8	4	2.2%	12.0%	19.6%	112
Lew Ford	Orioles (AA)	36	29	1	3	0	2.2%	9.4%	16.6%	110
Michael Almanzar	Red Sox (AA)	22	20	2	3	3	2.6%	9.8%	19.8%	110
Javier Herrera	Giants (AA)	28	25	2	5	6	2.6%	10.6%	21.1%	109
Adam Duvall	Giants (AA)	24	28	2	4	5	2.5%	9.9%	20.0%	109
John Murphy	Yankees (AA)	22	23	1	4	2	2.2%	10.2%	18.7%	109
Clint Robinson	Blue Jays (AA)	28	29	0	9	5	1.9%	12.4%	19.9%	108

SCOUT Leaderboard: Eastern League Hitters (Age 23 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Double-A Eastern League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Michael Almanzar	Red Sox (AA)	22	20	2	3	3	2.6%	9.8%	19.8%	110
John Murphy	Yankees (AA)	22	23	1	4	2	2.2%	10.2%	18.7%	109
Christian Vazquez	Red Sox (AA)	22	19	1	4	2	2.3%	10.3%	19.3%	108
Derrik Gibson	Red Sox (AA)	23	9	1	1	0	2.3%	9.3%	19.3%	106
Anthony Rendon	Nationals (AA)	23	33	0	6	4	1.8%	10.7%	18.7%	105
Carlos Paulino	Pirates (AA)	23	20	0	4	2	1.9%	10.3%	19.1%	104
Daniel Ortiz	Twins (AA)	23	29	2	3	8	2.5%	9.4%	21.9%	103
Jose Ramirez	Indians (AA)	20	26	0	2	1	1.9%	9.0%	17.6%	103
Hernan Perez	Tigers (AA)	22	27	1	1	3	2.2%	8.5%	18.8%	103
Daniel Fields	Tigers (AA)	22	15	1	0	2	2.3%	8.5%	19.8%	102

SCOUT Leaderboard: Eastern League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Double-A Eastern League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Eastern League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Rafael Montero	Mets (AA)	22	2	2	11.2	43	15	0	24.6%	8.5%	88
Joel Carreno	Blue Jays (AA)	26	3	0	3.2	11	8	0	24.3%	9.0%	90
Chris Martin	Red Sox (AA)	27	2	0	6.0	21	10	1	24.3%	9.1%	90
Brandon Workman	Red Sox (AA)	24	1	1	5.0	19	9	1	23.9%	9.1%	91
Edward Paredes	Indians (AA)	26	3	0	5.0	17	8	0	23.5%	8.9%	91
Toru Murata	Indians (AA)	28	1	1	7.0	24	9	0	23.2%	8.8%	92
Chad Beck	Blue Jays (AA)	28	3	0	3.0	13	7	1	23.4%	9.2%	92
Hector Neris	Phillies (AA)	24	2	0	3.2	17	8	3	23.5%	9.5%	93
Kevin Gausman	Orioles (AA)	22	1	1	4.0	22	8	0	22.8%	8.9%	93
Alex Meyer	Twins (AA)	23	1	1	5.0	22	8	1	22.8%	9.0%	94

SCOUT Leaderboard: Eastern League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Double-A Eastern League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Rafael Montero	Mets (AA)	22	2	2	11.2	43	15	0	24.6%	8.5%	88
Brandon Workman	Red Sox (AA)	24	1	1	5.0	19	9	1	23.9%	9.1%	91
Toru Murata	Indians (AA)	28	1	1	7.0	24	9	0	23.2%	8.8%	92
Kevin Gausman	Orioles (AA)	22	1	1	4.0	22	8	0	22.8%	8.9%	93
Alex Meyer	Twins (AA)	23	1	1	5.0	22	8	1	22.8%	9.0%	94
Chris Gloor	Giants (AA)	26	1	1	4.0	18	7	2	22.7%	9.3%	94
Cory Mazzoni	Mets (AA)	23	1	1	5.0	20	7	1	22.5%	9.1%	95
Craig Westcott	Giants (AA)	27	2	2	9.0	33	9	2	22.0%	9.0%	96
Trevor May	Twins (AA)	23	2	2	9.0	39	11	6	22.5%	9.7%	96
Anthony Ranaudo	Red Sox (AA)	23	1	1	5.0	19	6	1	21.9%	9.1%	96

Brief Notes
• Ranked eighth among Red Sox prospects by Baseball America before the 2009 season, but absent from the organization’s top-10 since then, prospect Michael Almanzar has posted the most impressive line in the Eastern League thus far. Still just 22 years old, Almanzar appears to be splitting time between third and first base.

• Second among all High-A pitchers by SCOUT last season — ahead, for example, both of Dylan Bundy and Tony Cingrani — Mets right-hander Rafael Montero has been excellent in his first exposure to Double-A, striking out more than a third of opposing batters while walking none in his first two starts. Ranked fifth among all Mets prospects by our Marc Hulet this preseason, Montero features “plus-plus command” according to Hulet’s high-profile and secret industry contacts.

• Not accounted for by the numbers above is Baltimore prospect Kevin Gausman’s Thursday night start against Cleveland’s Double-A affiliate, during which he (i.e. Gausman) posted a 5:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 6.0 innings (box).

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Tampa Bay at Boston | 19:05 ET
Including his debut last Saturday, Tampa Bay right-hander Alex Cobb has now made 33 appearances (all starts) in the majors and posted an 88 xFIP- and 3.0 WAR in 196.1 innings. Including his season debut last Friday, Boston left-hander Felix Doubront has now made 53 appearances (of which 33 have been starts) in the majors and posted a 94 xFIP- and 2.3 WAR in 201.1 innings. In both cases, those are above-average performances from players who (it appears) signed for $0.55 million combined and appeared on zero of Baseball America’s top-100 prospect lists. So far as lessons are concerned, this likely doesn’t qualify. It’s perhaps an illustration, though, of how little correlation there can be between a pitcher’s pedigree and his major-league performance.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Tampa Bay Radio.

Philadelphia at Miami | 19:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
John Lannan (7.0 IP, 2.56 xFIP) faces Ricky Nolasco (11.0 IP, 4.75 xFIP). Otherwsie, here a Chase Utley Status Update: 38 PA, 10.5% BB, 13.2% K, 2 HR, .333 BABIP, 3-0 SB-CS, 0.5 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Philadelphia Radio.

Milwaukee at St. Louis | 20:15 ET
Highly praised Cardinals right-handed prospect Shelby Miller makes his second start of the season and third of his career tonight. Here’s the generally mediocre line from his season debut, last Saturday at San Francisco (box): 5.1 IP, 24 TBF, 4 K, 4 BB, 7 GB on 16 batted-balls (43.8% GB), 5.30 xFIP. The available PITCHf/x data suggests he sat at ca. 92 mph with his fastball — not unimpressive in itself, but less than scouting reports have traditionally reported.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Milwaukee Radio.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

Game	Teams	Starters	Line	Win%
14:20	San Francisco Giants	Matt Cain	1.71	57.4%
ET	Chicago Cubs	Carlos Villanueva	2.30	42.6%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Cincinnati Reds	Mike Leake	1.96	50.0%
ET	Pittsburgh Pirates	A.J. Burnett	1.96	50.0%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Atlanta Braves	Julio Teheran	N/A	N/A
ET	Washington Nationals	Ross Detwiler	N/A	N/A
—	—	—	—	—
19:10	Philadelphia Phillies	John Lannan	1.85	53.1%
ET	Miami Marlins	Ricky Nolasco	2.09	46.9%
—	—	—	—	—
20:15	Milwaukee Brewers	Kyle Lohse	2.23	44.0%
ET	St. Louis Cardinals	Shelby Miller	1.75	56.0%
—	—	—	—	—
21:40	Los Angeles Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	1.67	58.8%
ET	Arizona Diamondbacks	Patrick Corbin	2.38	41.2%
—	—	—	—	—
22:10	Colorado Rockies	Jon Garland	1.94	50.5%
ET	San Diego Padres	Tyson Ross	1.98	49.5%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Chicago White Sox	Jose Quintana	2.29	42.8%
ET	Cleveland Indians	Justin Masterson	1.71	57.2%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Baltimore Orioles	Miguel Gonzalez	2.35	41.8%
ET	New York Yankees	CC Sabathia	1.69	58.2%
—	—	—	—	—
19:10	Tampa Bay Rays	Alex Cobb	2.10	46.7%
ET	Boston Red Sox	Felix Doubront	1.84	53.3%
—	—	—	—	—
20:10	Toronto Blue Jays	J.A. Happ	2.09	46.9%
ET	Kansas City Royals	Luis Mendoza	1.85	53.1%
—	—	—	—	—
22:05	Detroit Tigers	Max Scherzer	1.90	51.6%
ET	Oakland Athletics	Bartolo Colon	2.03	48.4%
—	—	—	—	—
22:05	Houston Astros	Bud Norris	2.65	37.0%
ET	LAA Angels	Tommy Hanson	1.56	63.0%
—	—	—	—	—
22:10	Texas Rangers	Yu Darvish	1.69	58.1%
ET	Seattle Mariners	Hisashi Iwakuma	2.34	41.9%
—	—	—	—	—
20:10	New York Mets	Jon Niese	1.96	50.0%
ET	Minnesota Twins	Vance Worley	1.96	50.0%