Daily Prospect Notes: 5/27/21

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

With the college baseball postseason underway, today’s notes will be a mix of observations from conference tournament play and the minor leagues. We’ll begin…

In the SEC…

Top-10 nationally ranked teams Tennessee and Mississippi State both lost their opening round games; the two will square off in an elimination game today. Alabama’s win over Tennessee moves them closer to an at-large bid, though their chances of doing damage in June are hurt by the absence of lefty Connor Prielipp who will have Tommy John surgery today, as Kendall Rogers reported yesterday. Prielipp is a top 10 talent. The recovery time from TJ puts his 2022 college season in jeopardy, and the date of next year’s draft becomes significant for him as he has a better chance to throw in front of teams if it’s again in July.

In the Big 12…

Kansas State spotted potential first round lefty Jordan Wicks a four-run lead in the first, but he labored through 5.2 innings, surrendering six runs to TCU. Wicks struck out nine, with his velocity in the low-90s for most of the outing. Now Kansas State needs to navigate the loser’s bracket having already burned their best starter. They’ll face Baylor, who lost to Texas Tech, in an elimination game today. Baylor is on the bubble and an 0-2 tournament finish probably moves them off.

Texas Tech’s Mason Montgomery carved Baylor up, allowing just two hits in five innings while striking out 11. His low-90s fastball is pretty sneaky and he feasts off of it. Montgomery looks like a power pitcher on paper but just lives off fastball angle.

Texas faced West Virginia on the final weekend of the regular season and then got them again yesterday. Mountaineer lefty Jackson Wolf tossed a 138-pitch complete game, allowing just one Longhorn run. Ty Madden had another solid, if unspectacular start, working six innings and allowing three runs. He was his usual 96-97 early then more 93 late, according to the TV gun.

In Conference USA…

Charlotte was upset by Middle Tennessee and plays an elimination game today against fifth-seeded Florida Atlantic. Louisiana Tech and UT San Antonio played a harrowing, 12-inning, five-hour game that pushed the start of the Western Kentucky/Southern Miss game back past midnight local time. Tech won on a walkoff homer by redshirt senior Hunter Wells. It was Wells’ second homer of the game. He is seven hits away from breaking the school’s career record.

Elsewhere…

There were a lot of scouts on hand in Bethlehem to watch Lehigh righty Mason Black take on Army. Black gave up eight runs in three innings and failed to record a strikeout.

Conference Tournaments That Begin Today: America East, Atlantic 10, Atlantic Sun, Big East, Big South, Horizon League, Ohio Valley, Northeast, SoCon.

A Few Minor League Lines

Dax Fulton, LHP, Miami Marlins
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Jupiter Age: 19 Org Rank: 17  FV: 40+
Line:
6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 9 K

Notes
Recall that Fulton is coming off of TJ. He was mostly 91-94 yesterday and generated at least one whiff with each of his four pitches. Fulton’s throwing a lot of a relatively new slider and still missing bats. Wednesday’s start was better than his previous three from a strike-throwing standpoint.

José Soriano, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Level & Affiliate: Low-A Bradenton Age: 22 Org Rank: 22  FV: 40+
Line:
.2 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 3 BB, 1 K

Notes
After a great first outing, Soriano couldn’t get out of the first inning and threw 36 pitches before he was removed. He was up to 98, but mostly 93-96. What the Pirates are trying to execute here — have a wild TJ rehabber with only low-level minor league experience try to stick on the big league team for a big portion of the season — is a high-wire player dev maneuver.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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OddBall Herrera
1 year ago

Any idea what is going on with Orlando Arcia? His first 100 PA in Atlanta’s system have been ridiculous, especially in light of his past performances.

Seamaholic
1 year ago

He’s a 27 year old MLB vet with 5 years service time playing in AAA. What do you expect?

OddBall Herrera
1 year ago
Reply to  Seamaholic

Not a 180 wRC, .350 ISO and more walks than strikeouts, that’s for sure. I get that he should do better in the minors, but it’s definitely not automatic that struggling veteran players go to there and put up video game numbers.

Besides, the whole point of the question was if this is just a hot streak from a guy who is advanced for this level or if he’s doing something differently.

tomerafan
1 year ago

Outside of the SLG, he put up a similar show in AAA in 2018. It seems to be a AAAA-type line, in about 100 PA’s, where he is feasting (FEASTING!) on younger pitching.

36 PA vs. younger pitchers: .414 / .500 / .931
62 PA vs. older pitchers: .241 / .290 / .466

Also, 5 of his homers came in the series against the Charlotte Knights, in a bandbox stadium (although Arcia is a righty, and not getting those cheap lefty-pull homers over the short RF fence). None of those homers came against MLB-quality pitching: Jimmy Lambert, Hunter Schryver, Tyler Johnson, Matt Tomshaw, and Tanner Banks. Johnson and Schryver might be up-down low-leverage relievers; the rest are org depth.

(The other three were off of Angel Rondon, Shane Carle, and Braden Shipley. Again, not really a murderer’s row of pitchers.)

OddBall Herrera
1 year ago
Reply to  tomerafan

Cool that pretty well answers my question. Thanks for the in depth info!