| 11:59 |
 Dan Szymborski: OH GOD WE’RE LIVE PANIC TIME
|
| 11:59 |
Matt: Will there be a zips top 100 prospect list like in previous years?
|
| 11:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup
|
| 11:59 |
Robby: Do you buy that Kris Bryant is actually fully healthy? Shoulder injuries are scary
|
| 12:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Shoulder injuries are! If forced to guess, I’d guess that he was fullly healthy, but not yet full strength
|
| 12:00 |
Dan Szymborski: If that makes sense.
|
| 12:00 |
Mr. M: Manny Machado is going to sign with the Padres today. Search your feelings, you know it to be true.
|
| 12:00 |
Dan Szymborski: It would be a good signing!
|
| 12:00 |
tb.25: Do you think Harper & Machado are feeling a bit… chili… sitting by themselves waiting for the right offers?
|
| 12:00 |
Dan Szymborski: They have no beans, so they coudl be!
|
| 12:00 |
Numbcrunch: 10 team AL only league auction coming up. Won last year so I had to trade away all prospects and good contracts.
|
| 12:00 |
BenM: When projecting, is age just another factor in your multiple regressions or is it controlled for at the end with the help of an aging curve?
|
| 12:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Age is found in the cohort that players are compared to.
|
| 12:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Limburger, liverwurst, onions, on black bread.
|
| 12:02 |
Guest: This offseason sucks 🙁
|
| 12:02 |
Matt: So, the “+” stats are indexed against league average. When looking at those stats over multiple seasons, how is that league average calculated? Is it specific to that group of seasons, or do you take a weighted average of each of the player’s seasons?
|
| 12:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Same as park effects, weighted recent years.
|
| 12:02 |
CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles prospect list isn’t a complete dumpster fire. What is this feeling I have?
|
| 12:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Weird hope
|
| 12:02 |
Dave Szymborski’s Email Inbox: Is Detroit or Kansas City the least interesting team this year?
|
| 12:02 |
Dan Szymborski: On the actual field, the O’s will be least interesting
|
| 12:03 |
Chuncey Wiggins: I still don’t understand why the Carter Stewart situation went on for as long as it did. How hard is it to prove that 40% of a set amount was offered by a team? Are we missing something?
|
| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it seems like something you’d resolve way before arbitration, but what do I now
|
| 12:03 |
pelkey: What language did/do you write zips in?
|
| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I’m not a programmer. Like Nate and PECOTA, ZiPS is a mess that an actual coder would ahve a nightmare winter repairing.
|
| 12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I started with statistica and excel and I’ve moved it over the years to excel with a whole bunch of add-ons (sadly, none inexpensive!)
|
| 12:04 |
Siri: Christian Stewart: o/u 25 HR and .350 OBP?
|
| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I think Christin Stewart is better than zips, but definitely under on the OBP
|
| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: fence for HR
|
| 12:05 |
Tyler: Hi Dan, if you’ve had a chance to research it, what are your thoughts on DRC+? What, if any, qualms do you have with it? Thanks!
|
| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had as much time to really dig into it and make educated guesses at some of the construction, so I think it would be unfair for me to either praise or throw under the bus.
|
| 12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: I do like boldness though and the people who developed it are very competent individuals
|
| 12:07 |
Mickey: How many years did Mike Trout have to produce Mike Trout-like numbers before ZiPS started projecting him to produce Mike Trout-like numbers?
|
| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: It was like 2 before it was set, I think
|
| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: I can check THAT pretty easily
|
| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, not even 2
|
| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projected Trout to 8 WAR in 2013
|
| 12:08 |
Miller Park: Who has a better 2019, Yelich or Cain??
|
| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s really close. I’ll say Yelich because we don’t *know* defensive performance to the same degree that we *know* offensive performance.
|
| 12:09 |
Vslyke: Is Christian Arroyo a post-hype sleeper assuming he gets playing time? The Rays are loaded in the infield but he still seems like a good bet to produce if he finds more playing time.
|
| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: I think so.
|
| 12:09 |
Dbo: Dan, I’ve been out of the country for awhile and I’ve missed your chats like your chili misses beans
|
| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry to hear you did not miss me at all!
|
| 12:09 |
Will: How do you see the Astros filling out their rotation? Is Keuchel likely to return?
|
| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I think if he’s not blown away they come to a deal
|
| 12:10 |
John: Have you ever considered using ZIPS to generate prospect related content? It might be interesting to see what players get surprising forecasts from ZIPS
|
| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I do release a Top 100 every year.
|
| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ll think of a few other things as we get closer to the season
|
| 12:10 |
Bread Gardner: Non-alcoholic vodka is just water, fite me irl.
|
| 12:11 |
Andy: Does German Marquis have a chance to repeat last year’s performance or is he a 2 pitch guy that will be figured out?
|
| 12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I think you’re way too harsh on Marquez?
|
| 12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d characterize him as a two pitcher guy
|
| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: And he’s still working on offspeed pitch last I heard
|
| 12:13 |
Bread Gardner: If I take two slices of pizza and stack them one on top of the other, both crusts facing outside with both having toppings facing each other, is it a sandwich?
|
| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 12:13 |
Corey Seager’s Throwing Arm: Alex Verdugo for Giancarlo Stanton straight up: who says no?
|
| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Dodgers
|
| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: If you were going to spend Giancarlo Stanton money, why not just spend it on Harper, who I’d prefer to have, and keep Verdugo?
|
| 12:13 |
No One Ever: Man, that Pro Bowl was the most exhilarating sports telecast of the last decade!
|
| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: I completely forgot about it
|
| 12:13 |
Gub Gub: Mike Olt signed with The Twins. MIKE OLT SIGNED WITH THE TWINS
|
| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: Mike does not get the exclamation that Brock Holt! Tyler Holt! or Chris Holt! do.
|
| 12:14 |
Dave: When will all your projections be posted online?
|
| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: When they are completed!
|
| 12:14 |
Gaslamp Gary: The only question is will Manny Machado wear 8 or 13 with the Padres?
|
| 12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: My only uniform question is what I have to do to get MLB to allow Boxberger to have his emoji jersey all the time
|
| 12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Machado can go by “Skiddo #22” for all I care BECAUSE HOLY CRAP ON A BICYCLE THE PADRES ARE GOING BACK TO BROWN!!!!!
|
| 12:15 |
Gub Gub: Vernon Wells should drive by Harper and Machado and just throw cash at them for giggles.
|
| 12:15 |
tim: The brewers are currently projected to finish last in the NL Central in 2019, according to the projected standings page. Do you buy that they will be closer to the Reds and the Pirates than they will be to the Cardinals and the Cubs?
|
| 12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be closer to the Cardinals and Cubs.
|
| 12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Like last year, ZiPS likes the Brewers more than Steamer.
|
| 12:16 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Your peers at MLBTR ran a poll about whether teams have “become too conservative in free agency.” Non-representative and all that, but are you surprised at how the fans seem to feel? Who are these fans who would rather their preferred team’s owner be shrewd than sign generational talents?
|
| 12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Fans really seem to hate players making money because they mistakeningly think that ticket prices go up because of players
|
| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: (Well, there is an indirect relationship since expensive players tend to increase perceived performance, but you know what I mean)
|
| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: Generally, ask those people if they enjoyed their free Final Four tickets and watch their expression go full on NPC meme!
|
| 12:17 |
Hey Mr. DJ: DJ LeMahieu’s name is (according to Fangraphs at least) punctuated differently from D.J. Stewart’s. Thoughts?
|
| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: Remember who uses periods and who doesn’t is worse than the Zach/Zack stuff.
|
| 12:17 |
Dave Szymborski’s Email Inbox: I know America (and Ontario) cannot stop talking about this, but what was your view on the Whit Merrifield contract?
|
| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s a fine deal.
|
| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: And it makes sense for Merrifield to take the guaranteed money – he’s very unlikely to ever hit free agency at a point that he’d be a highly sought-after free agent.
|
| 12:18 |
JD: Has the excitement for offseason top 100 prospect lists died in recent years? For me it seems like there’s too many of them.
|
| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I think people still are excited. I know that at ESPN, Keith’s top 100 coming out was a massive traffic bump.
|
| 12:19 |
Phan: Think phils did good trading jp? Heard Segura’s bat is sus
|
| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: They did fine
|
| 12:19 |
stuck in a slump: Dan, why do the projection systems seem to (comparatively) hate Nimmo, but love Dahl?
|
| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they really love Dahl
|
| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: The WAR projections are never that high
|
| 12:19 |
Chuncey Wiggins: What sort of stats would a 20 WAR player look like? How unbalanced would baseball become with a player like that wreaking havoc and laying waste among the basepaths?
|
| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: When a 20 WAR pitcher retires a batter, they literally retire out of shame.
|
| 12:19 |
KD: Do you think Castellanos will be traded before the season starts?
|
| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 12:19 |
CamdenWarehouse: Do you think the Orioles retire Mussina’s number? give him a statue?
|
| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 12:20 |
CamdenWarehouse: All of the ZiPS posts are in English for me, pelkey. Check your browser settings
|
| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: Wait, did I miss a post?
|
| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: I certainly write things in English.
|
| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: None of my foreign language stuff is very baseball specific.
|
| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: I could write about Miguel Cabrera going to the library or Jordan Zimmermann having a table in his kitchen.
|
| 12:21 |
Gub Gub: What alternate spelling would you choose for your first name?
|
| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Danilo
|
| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Dán
|
| 12:22 |
Justin: Is there any way that the Pirates current payroll around $72 million is all they can afford?
|
| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: No
|
| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: I may not be willing to pay $8 for an Egg McMuffin, but it doesn’t mean I CAN’T
|
| 12:22 |
Rox Fan: Any chance the Rockies address their significant deficiency behind the plate this winter?
|
| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: A small one.
|
| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: More than any contending team, the Rockies like to “settle.”
|
| 12:23 |
Kai: Who would be a very interesting player to research through some statistics?
|
| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: Roberto Clemente
|
| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: Brock/Broglio is fun too
|
| 12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: Based on where they were at the time, I would have definitely taken the Broglio side of the trade at the time
|
| 12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t an obvious robbery the way Bagwell was
|
| 12:26 |
Hank: Robles the favorite for NL RoY?
|
| 12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s up there. Either Hiura or Rodgers could end upw ith jobs
|
| 12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: And maybe the Mets actually play Alonso!
|
| 12:26 |
Chris: Does Margot rebound both offensively and defensively this year? He went from being a sophomore breakout to suddenly being talked about being more a bench player. Thoughts on this former top prospect and his role in a crowed OF situation?
|
| 12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: I think so, but I tend to be among the more optimistic
|
| 12:26 |
Bob: Yusniel Diaz was traded from Dodgers to Orioles, but his minor league numbers show Orioles, then Dodgers. This happens with all players traded mid season. Why is this?
|
| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Dunno, never thought of it
|
| 12:27 |
Tyler: Was the Sonny Gray trade/extension a good risk for the Reds?
|
| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s OK. The upside is pretty good.
|
| 12:27 |
FYI: I’m not projecting. You’re projecting!!
|
| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: “im not projecting! im not projection!!”, i continue to insist as i slowly shrink and transform into a corn cob /wint
|
| 12:28 |
LFC Mike: Will it get so cold that even Sky Line Chili would pass for quality “keep warm” food?
|
| 12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: If it’s cold enough for me to eat, it’s too cold for my car to operate.
|
| 12:28 |
Eminor3rd: Why isn’t the ‘positional adjustment’ component of WAR recalculated each season like the linear weights coefficients are?
|
| 12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: Practicality
|
| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: You have to teach everyone the new positional adjustments and you may erase the increased utility with increased performance
|
| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Nobody really “needs” to know the exact linear weight coefficients in their head
|
| 12:29 |
Maple Syrup in my Veins: James Paxton, how do you think he does in Yankee stadium
|
| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: He’ll be just fine
|
| 12:29 |
Kurt: In your opinion, which Blue Jay exceeds ZiPS the most and which one underperforms the most compared to their ZIPS projection?
|
| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: Gurriel exceeds
|
| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t strike me as unrealistically optimistic on any of the primary Jays guys
|
| 12:30 |
Dave Szymborski’s Email Inbox: So did everyone invited to my Pro Bowl party
|
| 12:31 |
brewers fan: are you as down on the brewers as the projected standings are?
|
| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS disagrees with Steamer here. I don’t mean to rag on the Steamer bunch, it’s just that’s a place they disagree.
|
| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: (They did better with Oakland than ZiPS did, IIRC)
|
| 12:32 |
Chuncey Wiggins: Have the Rockies ever considered moving their stadium a mile underground to help with their extreme park factors?
|
| 12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: COLORADO MOLEMEN
|
| 12:32 |
Dbo: Is $175 Million really that disappointing of an offer for Machado?
|
| 12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 12:32 |
CamdenWarehouse: Would anyone notice if they stopped playing the Pro Bowl and just simmed it?
|
| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: “I simmed the Pro Bowl in Madden 2019! The power went off halfway through. So my projection is don’t care, which proved 100% accurate.”
|
| 12:33 |
Matt: Cite your sources on Machado and Harper lack of beans.
|
| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: When you have briefcase money, you don’t deal with your own legumes
|
| 12:33 |
Ozzie All-Beans: Let’s give Stan Kasten some credit for berating anyone who dares question his team’s lack of spending.
|
| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Someone has to be the antagonist!
|
| 12:34 |
Chuncey Wiggins: Would Mike Trout still be an above average player if he wore bunny slippers throughout a complete season?
|
| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 12:34 |
Matt: The period/no periods controversy pales in comparison to the fact that JA Happ pronounces his initials as “Jay”. I refuse to be a part of this blasphemy.
|
| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: He gets some of his soul back for not liking milk bags
|
| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: The “Jay Happ” has always annoyed me. THAT’S NOT HOW INITIALS WORK. B.J. Upton is not back to being Budge Upton. I’m not Dudge Szymborski.
|
| 12:34 |
CamdenWarehouse: It’s a joke about what language you wrote ZiPS in, Dan
|
| 12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: oh
|
| 12:35 |
Mike: The Reds are at least a 77-80 win team this year… …..right?
|
| 12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: I think the final projection will be in that range
|
| 12:35 |
Brent Honeywell: My bullpen throging sessions have been going really well. I appreciate the love Dan.
|
| 12:37 |
Eric: Have projectors, such as yourself, started applying machine learning to the projections?
|
| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I have not, I find the data not as voluminous as I would like for that approach
|
| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: But I’m sure people have (like PECOTA)
|
| 12:38 |
KD: Are you trying to break the record for most responses in a chat per hour? You are responding at a breakneck pace.
|
| 12:38 |
Dan Szymborski: I tend to respond quickly since my responses are uniformly terrible.
|
| 12:38 |
Billy Beane: Dan, how is life?
|
| 12:38 |
Dan Szymborski: I preferred Quaker Oat Squares
|
| 12:38 |
Dan Szymborski: I used to trade one of my Ecto Coolers to Pat Fitzsimmons for his Quaker Oat Squares he had every day
|
| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Dump them in a carton of milk and boom, breakfast for lunch
|
| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: I would request two Ecto Coolers a day with packed lunch – you could snag a lot with those
|
| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: Also valuable commodities were Fruit Roll-Ups and Shark Bites
|
| 12:40 |
Queen Ayrenn: Is there any chance you revisit ESO? It’s become a really great game since they horrible beta days!
|
| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: Maybe at some point. It’s hard to find MMO room.
|
| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: I have FFXIV, WOW, and GW2 rotating generally depending on who has the most recent material
|
| 12:41 |
Billy Beane: Let’s say you were going to make chili tonight to warm up in the cold. What’s the recipe look like?
|
| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Finely chopped steak. Chili peppers. Seasoning.
|
| 12:41 |
Rox Fan: Bridich needs to make haste and package Desmond with a couple of prospects to move that salary off the books in order to extend Arenado. Right?
|
| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Just release Desmond
|
| 12:41 |
Billy Beane: Wait… Dan… All of ZiPS is in Excel? I don’t know whether to be more impressed or horrified. That thing must crash like every 6, seconds.
|
| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: They’re GB-sized Excel files.
|
| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: And it uses way too many PC resources for what Excel does.
|
| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: It shouldn’t need the 3930k with 32 GB in my work PC, but it makes it work.
|
| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve used as much as 25 GB or RAM on my main rig for mysql things (I have an 8700k with 32 GB of RAM)
|
| 12:43 |
NotBurtReynolds: Inspired by a new friend, I’ve decided to attempt the bacon-rangoon…Do you think I should go with a bacon ‘wrapper’ with just cream cheese inside? Or add crab for the full crab-acon-rangoon?
|
| 12:43 |
E.L.: Zaidi seems confident he can still get OF help this offseason, but other than Harper, is there anyone genuinely helpful left on the market?
|
| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: I think a trade more likely
|
| 12:43 |
Dbo: Dan, whats the appropriate distance that I should stand from the urinal? I think toes should be 12 inches from the wall
|
| 12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: It depends on your flow level. You want to avoid splashback.
|
| 12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: But also have sufficient closeness for the final handshake if you’re over 35 or so.
|
| 12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: I can’t believe I just wrote this stuff in a FanGraphs chat.
|
| 12:44 |
Matt: Was really hoping the “J” in JA Happ stood for Jason. That would have been the icing on the cake. Alas.
|
| 12:44 |
Pete: How would you handle the “Where will/should Senzel play? ” question?
|
| 12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: Next year I go Senzel 3B, Suarez LF, Winker RF
|
| 12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, if the Reds go with Kemp as the cost of having Puig, I rather have Senzel 3B, Suarez LF, Winker RF than Suarez 3B, Kemp LF, Puig RF
|
| 12:45 |
Matt: I find it fascinating to look at peoples’ last names to trace back the employment of their ancestors. For example, Andrew Miller’s ancestors likely crushed grain. And Brent Honeywell’s ancestors likely owned and operated a natural ground source of honey.
|
| 12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: Brad Brach is a candy heir
|
| 12:46 |
Matt: PECOTA is a person?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
|
| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: The secret sauce is Bill Pecota’s blood
|
| 12:46 |
Matt: Cinnamon Life, or you’re wrong. Fight me.
|
| 12:46 |
Matt: How many Ecto Coolers would it take to acquire, say, Mike Trout?
|
| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: 5. Ecto Coolers were valuable.
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Also, the Brach thing is a lie, but you can usually get people with that one
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Why not?
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s really happening
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: now the O’s are on the way
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Why not?
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: We can win this thing why not?
|
| 12:47 |
Trey: Will the next round of CBA negotiations finish up without a work-stoppage?
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: I think in the end it will
|
| 12:47 |
The Ghost of Dan’s Grandma: My sweet little Danny, would good are numbers and projections when they take you away from what is truly important, like giving your dear dead grandmother a quick kiss?
|
| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: You keep doing this, but this doesn’t sound like my grandmother at all.
|
| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: My family did hugs, not so much kisses
|
| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: And my grandmother would not have believed in an afterlife
|
| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia was just in my office with a toy (not the hedgehog, so I wonder if she lost it). I threw it, but she took it back upstairs.
|
| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Probably because Galileo’s here on my left desk begging for dinner way too early
|
| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Mercutio does not usually come into my office at this time of day
|
| 12:49 |
CamdenWarehouse: Should stop buying Old Bay in protest of McCormick’s new HQ screwing up traffic patterns?
|
| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Wait, what happened in Hunt Valley?
|
| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I last drove in Hunt Valley back in early October.
|
| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: But I only used Shawan and Schilling
|
| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Are McCormick/Beaver Dam all messed up now?
|
| 12:51 |
Moltar: Ummmmm it is for sure pronounced Beej Upton
|
| 12:51 |
Dave C: Thoughts on the NL east this year?
|
| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Should be a fun race. Four teams all have a reasonable case
|
| 12:51 |
Dave Cameron: J-A is objectively difficult to enunciate. It ends up sounding like Jay unless you really make the effort… probably just ended up that way.
|
| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Then make the effort
|
| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Using initials you can’t pronounce is writing checks with your mouth your ass can’t cash!
|
| 12:52 |
Billy Beane: Dan, you used chopped steak instead of ground beef? I feel like chili texture is better with ground beef.
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: That just means you haven’t cooked it long enough.
|
| 12:52 |
Moltar: No tomato in your chili?
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: None.
|
| 12:52 |
Dave Cameron: I’m sure LeMahieu’s dad called him “Deej” at some point in his life
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I imagine every American with a French last name sounding like James Carville
|
| 12:53 |
Matt: What’s the etiquette on directing the splashback at the guy next to you?
|
| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: Kinda rude!
|
| 12:53 |
Buford: How did the White Sox mess up Tatis Jr.’s evaluation vs. San Diego’s great read?
|
| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: It was a risk and it added up to a much worse result than should have been expected on average.
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| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: If everyone was sure Tatis Jr. would be Tatis Jr., then teams would have been lining up around the block BEGGING the white sox to take their veterans
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| 12:54 |
Chris: In your view, who will be the funnest team to watch this season?
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Brewers were a lot of fun and I still expec tthem to be
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| 12:54 |
My Mama Says: Do you think Bill James should be in the HOF?
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s reasonable, though guys like Marvin Miller should have priority.
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Really, if Bowie Kuhn is in the Hall of Fame, then RICK James has a case for the Hall
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| 12:54 |
Dbo: Ecto coolers are the new Moneyball, building a team on the cheap
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| 12:54 |
Queen Ayrenn: ESO releases conent quarterly… And this year we get Elweyr and dragons! And lots of class/race balances and QoL.
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I actually tried it about a year ago and it still kinda bored me
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| 12:55 |
Matt: Fun fact: Brad Boxberger’s ancestors were among the first McDonald’s employees, and are the reason the Big Mac comes in a box, rather than wrapped.
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| 12:55 |
Matt: My family did drugs, not so much hugs.
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| 12:55 |
Matt: Just because a cat doesn’t believe in cats does not make that cat non-existent, Dan. Beliefs do not define reality.
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| 12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Didn’t you ever play Afterlife on PC?
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| 12:55 |
Sam: My grandmother passed away last weekend. She used to tape old Start Trek episodes and edit out the commercials before there were boxed DVD sets. My grandmother was cool.
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| 12:55 |
CamdenWarehouse: Do you tell Cassiopeia that she’s weird for playing fetch?
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| 12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: No, it’s good exercise for her!
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| 12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Poor dumb Mercutio watches her play with me for an hour and then wants to play and he brings me a milk tab from a gallon of milk (those are his property)
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I throw it and he just watches, unable to figure out why I play with her and not him
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| 12:56 |
Pitbull featuring Kesha: It’s going down, I’m yelling Szymbor, you better move, you better dance
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| 12:56 |
The next door stall: Since you have discussed bathroom issues..do you hand a roll under or throw a roll over to a fellow traveller in need of toilet tissue?
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I try to avoid public bathroom situations in which I may need to use toilet paper
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| 12:56 |
Matt: There’s also no chili in Dan’s chili. Because Dan’s chili isn’t chili.
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: Because it is
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| 12:57 |
Jasper: Can you explain the difference between command and control? They sometimes seem interchangeable.
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| 12:57 |
NotBurtReynolds: How likely is it that the next CBA addresses minor league pay in a meaningful way?
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: 0%
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| 12:57 |
KD: Did you ever have chili at a real chili place? I went to NM for a month and had chili in Albuquerque. I ordered the chile rojo…and the restaurant proceeded to bring me out a large bowl of red chile sauce with a small amount of meat. Nothing else. The sauce burned my mouth and the waitress had a good laugh.
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: I have!
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| 12:57 |
Andy Ried Taft: What is this tomfoolery?
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/28/19
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| 12:58 |
Moltar: Sounds like you make a mean beef stew, Dan
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: They’ll capital punish you in Texas for not making a bowl of Texas red properly
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| 12:58 |
Dbo: It’s going to be -21 in Chicago on Wednesday, prepare yourself for the winter apocalypse
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s…cold
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| 12:58 |
KD: Carter is a common one. Man…people needed carts for everything back then. It was like a moving truck of its time. Certainly mason is important as well. Ken Follett demonstrates this in his Pillars of the Earth trilogy.
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I should crank call Scott Cooper and demand he make me a barrell
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| 12:58 |
Dunno. Never thought of it.: Well will you think of it and change it?
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I have a short attention span; what is this referring to?
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| 12:59 |
Steve O: Maybe kind of a stupid question but what is the significance of zips and other systems like it? Like, what does it seek to accomplish?
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Projecting baseball players?
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: And do so in a manner in which people will read stuff? And hopefully that will convert into salary for me somehow?
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| 12:59 |
Matt: Not that I necessarily think that a completely free and open market for the MLB is the best way to go (real talk, I kinda do), but aren’t these types of issues inevitable results of a 100% directed and controlled economic system?
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA has a real challenge ahead of them. Because anything they propose would have to be approved by owners in vastly different economic situations.
|
| 1:00 |
Ben: Why isnt it Ja Happ like Ja rule??
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: If you pronounce JA, it most certainly shoudl be
|
| 1:00 |
James: BJ stood for Boss-man Junion (apparently he looks – or at least did when he was a kid – a lot like his dad, OG Boss-man)
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: I know! nd he changed it back to BJ lately
|
| 1:00 |
Hedgehog Alert: Pet hedgehogs ( living ones..not cat toys) are causing salmonella outbreaks in 8 states.
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| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: I saw that!
|
| 1:01 |
Smith : Will Jason Vargas end the year as the Mets fifth starter ?
|
| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: If so, may god have mercy on the mets
|
| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: (Well, if Vargas starts 32 games in 2019, I guess he didn’t)
|
| 1:01 |
KD: I think you have answered 3x as many questions as Meg would in this hour. I assume that means Meg is more thoughtful in her responses and/or more selective in the questions she answers.
|
| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Thinking and being nice slow things down!
|
| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: I WAS TOLD THAT IF I ANSWER FEWER THAN 50 QUESTIONS AN HOUR MY CAT WILL NOT BE RETURNED
|
| 1:02 |
Gaslamp Gary: Pinstripes or no for the 2020 Padres brown unis?
|
| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: THey haven’t unveiled.
|
| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: As long as they’re brown and we get of this Create-a-Team DefaultTeam1 uniform they’re sporting, I’ll probably be content
|
| 1:02 |
Moltar: New Mexico Chile is a whole different ballgame. Whole different sport. Red, Green or Xmas style, the rules are totally different than your tex-mex or midwest fare.
|
| 1:03 |
LPFan: Has there been a study done to look at actual stats vs prior projections?
|
| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup, someone does it every year. Havne’ tseen a 2018 yet
|
| 1:03 |
tb.25: If we all of a sudden discovered your name was actually DJ Szym, what would the J stand for? (assuming D was Dan)
|
| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: John
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| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: At some point, I’m going to add Jacob after John to my middle name legally
|
| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: My parents wanted to do it after my grandfather (who I was very close with right up until he died at 96), but he insisted you shoouldn’t name people after the living.
|
| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: So my middle name was my dad’s name, since he didn’t care about that stuff
|
| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: (and he’s been dead for more than 20 years, so it’s OK now already)
|
| 1:04 |
Matt: What is a “muto” and why were JT’s ancestors the realest of them?
|
| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Realmuto is a place-name surname
|
| 1:05 |
Pat: I have always thought that it’s actually the small market teams who would oppose a cap, because with a cap comes a floor and the Pirates of the world don’t want to be forced to have a $110M payroll or something.
|
| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: The trick is designing a system that incentivizes small-market teams to invest *without* simply causing greater disparity
|
| 1:05 |
Cereal Dominance: Which cereal character would win in a Battle Royal match? My be is on Captain Crunch because of military training.
|
| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: uhh, count chocula
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| 1:06 |
Dan Szymborski: You think Captain Crunch and has FAKE NAVY MEDALS can stop a vampire?
|
| 1:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Who’s going to stop a vampire? A pantless panther selling Golden Crisp? A toucan? A leprechaun?
|
| 1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Fred and Barney? Snap Crackle and Pop? Keebler Elves? The Crispix Demon?
|
| 1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: (OK I made the last one ujpj)
|
| 1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: a burglar and a dog that STEAL COOKIES?
|
| 1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Really, King Vitaman is the only threat to a vampire
|
| 1:07 |
Gaslamp Gary: Is there any hope for Eric Hosmer this season? Can we get a 110+ wRC+ season out of him?
|
| 1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: There’s still hope
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| 1:07 |
HappyFunBall: Two slices of pizza, placed sandwich style, is a calzone. Hence, a calzone is a sandwich!
|
| 1:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Don’t they have to be sealed or something?
|
| 1:08 |
Vargas: recognize me and apologize for insulting present Met’s ace jason vargas
|
| 1:08 |
LFC Mike: Count Chocula is beaten with a wooden cross and sunlight..NEXT!
|
| 1:08 |
Dan Szymborski: If it was so easy, then vampires wouldnt’ be threatening
|
| 1:08 |
Dan Szymborski: (well, in fiction, of course)
|
| 1:09 |
Dan Szymborski: You think Count Chocula is just going to sit there and let Horatio Crunch stab him with a cross? Captain Crunch still can’t beat the Soggies for good and they’re anthropomorphized milk!
|
| 1:09 |
Clem Fandango: Can you hear me Dan? It’s Clem Fandango. Are the Cubs stuck with Heyward for the next 4 years?
|
| 1:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
|
| 1:09 |
Mike: Are those video scouting internships offered by companied like Baseball Info Solutions or Inside Edge worth it?
|
| 1:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Dunno, haven’t done one
|
| 1:09 |
Matt: I don’t think seals eat pizza, Dan
|
| 1:10 |
Pat: Let’s say Whiff Davis shows up and hasn’t improved at all. What does Elias do? Does he just roll out his corpse for the next 4 years and watch a .240 wOBA? Or do they just send him home?
|
| 1:10 |
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’d just release him if he doesn’t have a great comeback this year
|
| 1:10 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s pretty sad when ZiPS projects a massive comeback (3 wins!) and you just get to replacement level
|
| 1:10 |
Matt: I don’t believe that’s really Dave Cameron
|
| 1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Dave has a desk job and has no time for your shenanigans
|
| 1:11 |
CamdenWarehouse: New McCormick HQ on Shawan just short of York. Now when you turn onto Shawan you immediately sit and wait for the HQ to empty
|
| 1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh god, really?
|
| 1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Did they widen the Shawan/York intersection?
|
| 1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: That must be a nightware with Hunt Valley mall (I forget what they call the new format) there too
|
| 1:13 |
Dan Szymborski: and the thing is, like a quarter mile north, York Road just becomes a rural, one-laned road.
|
| 1:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Except up in Sparks by where Microprose was last I heard
|
| 1:13 |
tacopocket: fantasy wise – is there a huge difference between suarez and hoskins? Is it just hoskins has the higher ceiling?
|
| 1:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Position eligibility is important!
|
| 1:13 |
T.D.H.Thoms: Do you think reverving the order of the draft for nonplayoff teams would be a strongly disincentivize ‘tanking’? So, the best record not to make the playoffs would get the 1st overall pick. Everyone is trying to win.
|
| 1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I would be in a favor of a system in which WINS, has a proportional effect on the revenue sharing money that net revenue sharing teams receive.
|
| 1:14 |
CamdenWarehouse: lol, no. just added a turn lane on Shawan to the HQ and a light 300 feet from the York intersection
|
| 1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: good god
|
| 1:14 |
CamdenWarehouse: It’s awful, so everyone should stop buying Old Bay
|
| 1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I can’t do that
|
| 1:14 |
PM: Who is your greatest success related to zips? As in who was the system super high on before a massive breakout
|
| 1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: Scherzer? I scored several thousand bucks on his Cy Young season.
|
| 1:15 |
BobbyS: Is it worth upgrading my FX 8350 to a Ryzen 7, or something else?
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: YES
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, if you game, and I know you game.
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: FX-8350’s single-thread performance has trouble keeping even with Pentiums
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Ryzen got the per-core up to Skylake levels.
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: err per-thread
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: IPS
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: IPC
|
| 1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: dammit
|
| 1:16 |
CamdenWarehouse: Have you seen what teams are doing this offseason? Cameron has plenty of time to chat
|
| 1:16 |
Dustin: A hypothetical: Chris Davis starts the season on an absolute tear. He’s got like 3.9 WAR, 29 HRs and 61 BBs through about half the season, and is one of less than a handful of AL MVP candidates. What happens in this reality?
|
| 1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: We hope karma isn’t a thing because if that happens, humanity has a serious butcher’s bill to pay
|
| 1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to leave!
|
| 1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, you can now find my work at FanGraphs ALL THE TIME.
|
| 1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: And DSzymborski on Twitter
|
| 1:16 |
LFC Mike: Vampires have a much better WAR in Night games than in Day games for sure.
|
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I think Dan underestimates Tony the Tiger. A sporty tiger has a real shot at a vampire.
Does Tony the Tiger have WOODEN CLAWS? A tiger with wooden claws? What a preposterous discussion and I say good day to you sir!
Captain Crunch has the WHOLE NAVY to kill one silly prediabetic vampire.
I said good day sir!!
Again, he cna’t even permanently defeat milk! And his navy is in his head and even if it weren’t, a simple captain can’t control fleet operations.
So you are saying Captain Crunch has as much real military might as the recently deceased Captain of 70’s super duo Captain and Tennille? Is it a coincidence that” General” Mills gave him Captain’s bars?….and don’t underestimate milk. Milk has a winning record against a majority of cereals , all cookies and every piece of bread it has encountered. Milk has a positive WAR. Wins Above others Refreshments.