2019 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

2014 sure seems a long time ago when you look at these offensive projections, doesn’t it? What’s especially troubling when you consider them is that as a whole is there just isn’t all that much upside. It wasn’t so long ago that Miguel Cabrera was hitting at an All-Star level, but the reality is that he’s only played in 168 games over the last two seasons and hit an un-Miggy-like .260/.344/.410. It’s good news of a sort that his back wasn’t one of the injury culprits in 2018, but for a 36-year-old (in April) still just a year removed from having two herniated discs, I may be searching for good news.

Nicholas Castellanos has developed into a very good hitter, but like his predecessor, J.D. Martinez, he’s one who really shouldn’t play the field. It was a good idea to give Castellanos a chance in the outfield, but it turns out he’s not much better as an outfielder than he was as a third baseman. If the Tigers want to win a few more games in 2019, I’d just stick him at designated hitter. That is, assuming he’s not traded in the next few weeks as he hopes. Castellanos is likely the only player on the roster who ought to be a trade target; Cabrera’s contract makes him unmovable without eating an obscene amount of cash and the Tigers shouldn’t deal Jeimer Candelario.

Otherwise, the amount of offensive talent, with the exception of Castellanos and Candelario, is almost shockingly scant. With Jose Iglesias not counting since he’s a free agent, minor-league defensive wizard Jake Rogers projects as the fourth-most valuable Tiger given a whole season of play. It’s unusual for a replacement-level offensive player to project so well. ZiPS projected the Marlins and Orioles to have, respectively, nine and 10 position players in their organizations worth 0.6 WAR or better, a murderers’ row compared to Detroit’s four.

ZiPS could, of course, be wrong. The Steamer projections are far more positive. If you’re a fan of the Tigers, that’s the system you’re hoping will be right this year, at least when it comes to the starting lineup.

Pitchers

This is a bit of a flip from the batters, in that ZiPS likes the pitching more than Steamer does. Now, the top-end projections in the rotation don’t even sniff at All-Star level, but there’s a lot more of interest here than there is with the hitters. ZiPS projects a rebound season from Michael Fulmer, but one in which he looks like a solid No. 2 starter rather than the ace the Tigers believed they had after his 3.06 ERA, AL Rookie of the Year debut in 2016. Rating Fulmer’s abilities too highly is what made Detroit so reluctant to trade him absent an enormous return, and I still believe they’ll come to regret it. Don’t get me wrong, Fulmer still has trade value, but as a good-not-great pitcher who still hasn’t proven to be much of a workhorse, the Tigers would get less now than they would have after 2016 or 2017.

There’s a bit of a trap here for Detroit. With Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, and Jordan Zimmermann under contract, to go along with Fulmer and Matt Boyd, the Tigers could very well start the season without any of the mildly interesting prospects and hangers-ons they have haunting Comerica Park roaming the field. I’m not even talking about the organization’s top four or five pitching prospects, which seem to be some combination of Casey Mize, Franklin Perez, Matt Manning, Beau Burrows, and Alex Faedo (stay-tuned to Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen for more on this than this brief little writeup). I’m talking about Daniel Norris; the Tigers really need to figure out whether or not he is a bust rather than let another rebuilding team do so. I’m talking about exploring Blaine Hardy’s potential as a starter more. Matt Hall isn’t a top prospect, but his curve keeps getting batters out as he moves up the ladder and he was excellent in 10 starts for Triple-A Toledo. Even an extended look at a non-prospect like Spencer Turnbull strikes me as more productive than the current rotation plan; there’s little flip potential in Moore, Ross and Zimmermann.

You don’t find Corey Klubers or Dallas Keuchels without taking chances on lesser prospects and non-prospects. Being able to get an extended look at these kinds of players is one of the advantages a rebuilding team has over contenders.

Bench and Prospects

The general hope is that the pitching will largely take care of itself. There’s a lot of truth to this; if two of the five pitching prospects named in the last section are good major leaguers, the Tigers are a long way towards becoming contenders again. The chances of building an offense from the minor leagues, on the other hand, look quite low, even if, for the sake of argument, we accept that Christin Stewart meets Steamer’s significantly higher expectations. Daz Cameron has very high variance in the projections, enough to make him a far better prospect than one would initially think from his fairly ugly 2019 projection, but after that, the quality drops off tremendously. Now, a projection system doesn’t really have much to say — yet — about players with limited professional experience like Kody Clemens or Parker Meadows, but every team has several prospects they can say that about. Detroit needs some real wins from the position players or when the pitching is playoff-ready, they’ll likely have to write some big checks to assemble a lineup to match.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nicholas Castellanos R 27 RF 156 596 72 165 38 6 27 91 45 151 2 3
Jeimer Candelario B 25 3B 146 540 72 127 33 3 17 62 59 151 2 1
Miguel Cabrera R 36 1B 106 389 47 107 20 1 15 58 52 86 0 1
Jose Iglesias R 29 SS 131 458 50 121 27 2 5 42 22 53 12 6
Jake Rogers R 24 C 99 372 44 74 15 2 12 43 32 126 6 4
JaCoby Jones R 27 CF 128 451 53 93 20 4 12 43 30 165 14 5
Christin Stewart L 25 LF 135 500 68 116 23 3 23 76 55 151 1 1
Kaleb Cowart B 27 3B 128 438 51 100 25 3 10 49 34 118 11 3
Ronny Rodriguez R 27 SS 124 467 52 118 21 3 14 55 18 101 8 6
Gordon Beckham R 32 2B 114 371 41 87 18 1 7 37 31 63 3 2
John Hicks R 29 C 94 323 37 77 15 1 9 36 19 90 3 2
Grayson Greiner R 26 C 86 296 30 61 13 1 7 31 28 92 0 0
Niko Goodrum B 27 2B 123 435 52 100 22 3 14 50 36 135 12 5
Willi Castro B 22 SS 134 524 58 126 24 3 10 45 26 126 16 7
Jordy Mercer R 32 SS 126 432 45 105 21 2 8 45 37 87 2 1
Hector Sanchez B 29 C 55 152 18 36 8 0 6 23 10 38 0 0
Mikie Mahtook R 29 LF 128 445 52 102 19 5 14 52 30 125 7 3
Dustin Peterson R 24 LF 115 440 47 100 24 1 10 46 31 116 2 1
Kade Scivicque R 26 C 89 329 33 75 13 1 6 29 18 73 0 0
Brandon Dixon R 27 1B 121 391 45 88 20 2 14 47 23 137 10 4
Edwin Espinal R 25 1B 115 416 42 100 19 0 8 41 27 82 0 0
Chad Huffman R 34 1B 93 309 39 68 15 2 11 36 29 86 2 1
Bobby Wilson R 36 C 63 189 17 36 7 0 4 20 13 54 0 0
Jacob Robson L 24 CF 116 460 54 104 21 3 9 42 45 147 12 8
Kody Eaves L 25 3B 103 372 39 74 16 3 8 35 31 121 5 4
Jason Krizan L 30 2B 112 410 45 97 19 2 8 41 36 68 4 3
Dawel Lugo R 24 2B 148 593 60 148 26 4 8 54 18 88 7 3
Harold Castro L 25 3B 116 413 38 100 14 2 3 27 10 80 8 6
Pete Kozma R 31 SS 126 347 32 67 16 1 2 23 19 79 6 3
Victor Martinez B 40 DH 111 399 29 100 16 0 7 45 28 50 0 0
Troy Montgomery L 24 CF 102 368 41 79 12 3 5 29 41 106 10 8
Daz Cameron R 22 CF 129 498 56 110 23 6 9 48 38 152 20 13
Sergio Alcantara B 22 SS 126 486 46 111 16 3 2 29 34 108 9 8
Cam Gibson L 25 LF 112 404 44 78 12 4 10 38 35 133 13 8
Josh Lester L 24 1B 121 462 51 100 22 3 14 53 35 131 2 1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 34 C 71 210 20 32 7 1 6 21 24 91 1 0
Victor Reyes L 24 LF 133 416 51 101 15 5 3 30 16 89 14 5
Brady Policelli R 24 C 98 358 34 71 16 3 7 30 22 100 12 9
Derek Hill R 23 CF 100 352 33 66 9 3 4 25 27 125 24 12
Daniel Woodrow L 24 RF 96 371 36 86 13 2 2 25 24 93 15 10
Will Maddox L 27 2B 108 430 40 101 14 2 3 30 19 93 8 8

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Nicholas Castellanos .277 .330 .497 120 .220 .330 6.0 -9 1.9 Mike Brown
Jeimer Candelario .235 .315 .402 93 .167 .296 4.5 2 1.7 Kory Casto
Miguel Cabrera .275 .361 .447 118 .172 .319 6.0 0 1.5 Pedro Guerrero
Jose Iglesias .264 .305 .365 81 .100 .290 4.1 5 1.3 Gary DiSarcina
Jake Rogers .199 .269 .347 65 .148 .265 3.1 8 0.7 Danny Ardoin
JaCoby Jones .206 .265 .348 64 .142 .296 3.2 10 0.5 Jason Robertson
Christin Stewart .232 .314 .428 98 .196 .285 4.7 -5 0.5 Kevin Barker
Kaleb Cowart .228 .285 .368 75 .139 .290 3.8 3 0.5 Mike Turgeon
Ronny Rodriguez .253 .281 .400 82 .148 .295 4.0 -3 0.4 Ronny Cedeno
Gordon Beckham .235 .298 .345 74 .111 .266 3.6 3 0.4 Mike Bordick
John Hicks .238 .281 .375 76 .136 .304 3.7 -1 0.3 Damian Miller
Grayson Greiner .206 .274 .328 63 .122 .274 3.1 4 0.3 Matt Garrick
Niko Goodrum .230 .292 .391 83 .161 .301 4.0 -5 0.2 Sean Berry
Willi Castro .240 .281 .355 71 .115 .299 3.6 0 0.2 Greg Gagne
Jordy Mercer .243 .307 .356 80 .113 .288 3.9 -3 0.1 Charlie Hayes
Hector Sanchez .237 .287 .408 85 .171 .278 4.1 -3 0.1 Joe Oliver
Mikie Mahtook .229 .287 .389 81 .160 .288 3.9 2 0.0 Nick Gorneault
Dustin Peterson .227 .284 .355 72 .127 .287 3.5 6 -0.1 Ken Weislak
Kade Scivicque .228 .275 .328 63 .100 .276 3.2 0 -0.2 Gary Bennett
Brandon Dixon .225 .271 .394 77 .169 .308 3.8 4 -0.2 Pat Rooney
Edwin Espinal .240 .289 .344 71 .103 .282 3.5 7 -0.3 Jeremy West
Chad Huffman .220 .302 .388 85 .168 .269 4.1 -4 -0.4 Reed Secrist
Bobby Wilson .190 .244 .291 44 .101 .244 2.4 1 -0.4 Tony Pena
Jacob Robson .226 .296 .343 73 .117 .313 3.5 -5 -0.5 Andy Tomberlin
Kody Eaves .199 .263 .323 58 .124 .272 2.8 4 -0.5 Jim Mason
Jason Krizan .237 .296 .351 75 .115 .266 3.6 -7 -0.5 Chuck Hiller
Dawel Lugo .250 .273 .347 67 .098 .282 3.4 -1 -0.6 Steven Singleton
Harold Castro .242 .261 .308 54 .065 .294 2.8 6 -0.7 Scott Candelaria
Pete Kozma .193 .240 .262 36 .069 .244 2.1 8 -0.7 Ray Oyler
Victor Martinez .251 .302 .343 75 .093 .272 3.7 0 -0.7 Ray Knight
Troy Montgomery .215 .295 .304 64 .090 .288 2.9 -2 -0.7 Mark Budzinski
Daz Cameron .221 .284 .345 70 .124 .300 3.3 -5 -0.8 Michael Saunders
Sergio Alcantara .228 .279 .286 54 .058 .290 2.6 2 -0.8 Eddy Martinez
Cam Gibson .193 .262 .317 56 .124 .261 2.7 7 -0.9 Duane Singleton
Josh Lester .216 .273 .368 72 .152 .271 3.5 2 -0.9 Kevin Reimer
Jarrod Saltalamacchia .152 .241 .281 41 .129 .230 2.2 -4 -1.0 George Mitterwald
Victor Reyes .243 .272 .325 61 .082 .302 3.2 1 -1.2 Nathan Haynes
Brady Policelli .198 .252 .318 53 .120 .255 2.5 -5 -1.2 Jon Aceves
Derek Hill .188 .250 .264 40 .077 .278 2.2 1 -1.4 Yuber Rodriguez
Daniel Woodrow .232 .279 .294 56 .062 .304 2.7 1 -1.5 Brent Bish
Will Maddox .235 .270 .298 54 .063 .293 2.6 -6 -1.9 Freddie Benavides

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Michael Fulmer R 26 9 8 4.04 26 26 142.7 140 64 17 41 113
Matt Boyd L 28 10 10 4.47 30 30 159.0 160 79 23 50 136
Blaine Hardy L 32 5 4 3.84 42 11 84.3 85 36 9 23 66
Daniel Norris L 26 7 6 4.40 24 21 106.3 108 52 13 45 99
Drew VerHagen R 28 6 5 4.24 47 11 93.3 93 44 10 35 76
Joe Jimenez R 24 5 3 3.50 68 0 61.7 54 24 5 23 70
Spencer Turnbull R 26 7 7 4.77 25 24 117.0 121 62 13 55 90
Matt Manning R 21 7 7 4.66 22 22 102.3 100 53 10 64 92
Matt Hall L 25 6 6 4.75 36 17 115.7 118 61 14 57 99
Tyson Ross R 32 7 7 4.68 25 20 117.3 121 61 13 53 88
Jordan Zimmermann R 33 7 8 4.83 24 24 126.7 142 68 22 29 92
Beau Burrows R 22 8 10 5.02 26 26 123.7 134 69 17 57 91
Tyler Alexander L 24 7 8 5.07 26 24 138.3 169 78 24 24 74
Alex Wilson R 32 3 2 3.88 57 0 58.0 59 25 6 14 37
Shane Greene R 30 5 4 4.09 64 0 61.7 59 28 7 22 59
Matt Moore L 30 7 8 5.06 33 19 126.3 139 71 19 47 99
Warwick Saupold R 29 5 5 4.79 42 9 88.3 99 47 10 36 54
Louis Coleman R 33 3 2 4.14 54 0 54.3 53 25 5 26 46
Zac Reininger R 26 3 3 4.33 55 0 70.7 74 34 8 25 53
Zac Houston R 24 1 1 4.15 44 0 52.0 43 24 5 32 62
Gregory Soto L 24 7 8 5.18 24 23 104.3 106 60 7 85 78
John Schreiber R 25 5 4 4.19 46 0 53.7 53 25 6 20 43
Joe Navilhon R 25 5 4 4.31 35 1 54.3 56 26 8 14 46
Anthony Castro R 24 6 8 5.21 24 22 112.3 126 65 12 61 65
Francisco Liriano L 35 7 9 5.06 26 23 121.0 125 68 18 61 102
Alex Faedo R 23 7 8 5.23 24 24 108.3 127 63 18 40 71
Buck Farmer R 28 4 4 4.50 70 1 72.0 73 36 9 34 60
Victor Alcantara R 26 4 4 4.56 56 1 75.0 79 38 8 33 53
Kyle Funkhouser R 25 4 6 5.16 18 18 83.7 90 48 12 45 66
Caleb Thielbar L 32 4 3 4.20 37 0 45.0 48 21 5 12 30
Logan Shore R 24 4 5 5.20 18 18 88.3 104 51 15 23 52
Daniel Stumpf L 28 3 3 4.35 62 0 51.7 53 25 7 18 46
Kevin Comer R 26 3 3 4.58 47 1 57.0 59 29 7 26 48
Reed Garrett R 26 3 3 4.50 46 0 50.0 52 25 5 24 40
A.J. Ladwig R 26 7 10 5.43 25 23 126.0 158 76 23 24 66
Eduardo Jimenez R 24 3 3 4.64 41 0 52.3 55 27 5 25 36
Nick Ramirez L 29 6 7 4.66 43 1 65.7 71 34 6 33 40
Eduardo Paredes R 24 1 1 4.76 54 0 64.3 67 34 8 28 49
Kevin Chapman L 31 2 2 4.69 35 0 40.3 41 21 4 22 35
Franklin Perez R 21 3 4 5.37 14 13 53.7 61 32 8 25 33
Chris S. Smith R 30 3 4 4.86 44 0 50.0 53 27 9 18 44
Johnny Barbato R 26 2 2 5.02 44 2 52.0 56 29 8 24 42
Josh Smoker L 30 2 3 4.89 53 0 57.0 61 31 9 25 51
Jacob Turner R 28 4 6 5.38 30 16 102.0 119 61 15 42 59
Christian Binford R 26 5 7 5.62 22 16 107.3 132 67 20 28 58
Kurt Spomer R 29 2 3 5.36 38 0 45.3 53 27 6 19 22
Paul Voelker R 26 4 5 5.52 44 1 58.7 65 36 11 25 45
Jose Manuel Fernandez L 26 3 4 5.52 55 0 62.0 64 38 9 40 50
Ryan Carpenter L 28 6 9 5.73 23 21 113.0 135 72 25 31 83
Nick Tepesch R 30 4 6 6.10 21 16 90.0 112 61 18 31 41
Phillippe Aumont R 30 2 4 6.44 26 5 50.3 55 36 11 36 43
Spenser Watkins R 26 6 9 6.19 24 17 104.7 126 72 20 51 62
Sandy Baez R 25 4 7 6.50 34 16 101.0 122 73 23 50 67

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Michael Fulmer 605 7.13 2.59 1.07 .288 105 95 4.12 2.1 Chien-Ming Wang
Matt Boyd 683 7.70 2.83 1.30 .294 98 102 4.41 1.9 Chris Hammond
Blaine Hardy 357 7.04 2.45 0.96 .296 114 88 3.86 1.5 Lee Guetterman
Daniel Norris 469 8.38 3.81 1.10 .308 100 100 4.26 1.3 Brandon Claussen
Drew VerHagen 405 7.33 3.38 0.96 .296 103 97 4.17 1.2 Greg Booker
Joe Jimenez 261 10.22 3.36 0.73 .306 125 80 3.20 1.1 Josh Wahpepah
Spencer Turnbull 525 6.92 4.23 1.00 .300 92 109 4.65 1.1 Jaime Cocanower
Matt Manning 471 8.09 5.63 0.88 .302 94 106 4.70 1.1 Dick Ruthven
Matt Hall 521 7.70 4.44 1.09 .302 92 108 4.67 1.0 Bryan Clark
Tyson Ross 524 6.75 4.07 1.00 .298 91 110 4.62 0.9 Ray Moore
Jordan Zimmermann 545 6.54 2.06 1.56 .302 88 114 4.74 0.8 Mickey Weston
Beau Burrows 559 6.62 4.15 1.24 .302 87 115 5.02 0.8 Justin Sturge
Tyler Alexander 603 4.81 1.56 1.56 .306 86 116 5.01 0.8 Bobby Livingston
Alex Wilson 244 5.74 2.17 0.93 .286 113 89 4.05 0.8 Jim Brosnan
Shane Greene 265 8.61 3.21 1.02 .299 107 93 3.93 0.7 Chad Paronto
Matt Moore 560 7.05 3.35 1.35 .308 87 115 4.77 0.6 Jeff Musselman
Warwick Saupold 399 5.50 3.67 1.02 .304 91 109 4.83 0.6 Ed Klieman
Louis Coleman 242 7.62 4.31 0.83 .298 106 95 4.31 0.5 Ted Abernathy
Zac Reininger 308 6.75 3.18 1.02 .300 101 99 4.27 0.5 Jack Cassel
Zac Houston 232 10.73 5.54 0.87 .295 105 95 4.09 0.5 Brad Voyles
Gregory Soto 503 6.73 7.33 0.60 .304 85 118 5.17 0.5 Derek Thompson
John Schreiber 233 7.21 3.35 1.01 .292 105 96 4.29 0.5 Willie Mueller
Joe Navilhon 232 7.62 2.32 1.33 .298 102 98 4.31 0.5 John Doherty
Anthony Castro 522 5.21 4.89 0.96 .302 84 119 5.20 0.5 Rick Berg
Francisco Liriano 545 7.59 4.54 1.34 .298 84 119 5.03 0.5 Tommy Byrne
Alex Faedo 489 5.90 3.32 1.50 .308 84 119 5.27 0.4 Zach McClellan
Buck Farmer 321 7.50 4.25 1.13 .298 97 103 4.65 0.4 Joe Hudson
Victor Alcantara 335 6.36 3.96 0.96 .300 96 104 4.60 0.4 Hal Reniff
Kyle Funkhouser 385 7.10 4.84 1.29 .304 85 118 5.23 0.4 Rick Berg
Caleb Thielbar 193 6.00 2.40 1.00 .299 104 96 4.19 0.4 Erasmo Ramirez
Logan Shore 390 5.30 2.34 1.53 .302 84 119 5.13 0.4 Nate Cornejo
Daniel Stumpf 224 8.01 3.14 1.22 .305 101 99 4.29 0.4 John Cummings
Kevin Comer 255 7.58 4.11 1.11 .304 96 105 4.59 0.3 Mike Gardner
Reed Garrett 225 7.20 4.32 0.90 .307 94 106 4.47 0.3 Joe Hudson
A.J. Ladwig 557 4.71 1.71 1.64 .310 81 124 5.24 0.2 Heath Totten
Eduardo Jimenez 236 6.19 4.30 0.86 .299 94 106 4.62 0.2 Gary Ross
Nick Ramirez 300 5.48 4.52 0.82 .300 91 110 4.81 0.2 Jim Roland
Eduardo Paredes 287 6.85 3.92 1.12 .298 92 109 4.74 0.2 Joe Davenport
Kevin Chapman 183 7.81 4.91 0.89 .308 93 107 4.49 0.1 Randy Choate
Franklin Perez 246 5.53 4.19 1.34 .299 82 122 5.42 0.1 Jesus Silva
Chris S. Smith 220 7.92 3.24 1.62 .301 90 111 4.99 0.1 Steve Mintz
Johnny Barbato 235 7.27 4.15 1.38 .304 87 115 5.09 0.1 Casey Daigle
Josh Smoker 256 8.05 3.95 1.42 .310 87 115 4.89 0.0 Carmen Cali
Jacob Turner 464 5.21 3.71 1.32 .303 79 127 5.29 0.0 Galen Cisco
Christian Binford 479 4.86 2.35 1.68 .305 78 128 5.44 -0.1 Bill King
Kurt Spomer 207 4.37 3.77 1.19 .299 82 122 5.36 -0.2 Gary Wagner
Paul Voelker 265 6.90 3.84 1.69 .298 79 126 5.49 -0.3 Richie Barker
Jose Manuel Fernandez 288 7.26 5.81 1.31 .296 79 126 5.50 -0.4 Dean Brueggemann
Ryan Carpenter 502 6.61 2.47 1.99 .308 74 135 5.54 -0.4 Scott Downs
Nick Tepesch 410 4.10 3.10 1.80 .298 72 139 6.04 -0.5 Jason Roach
Phillippe Aumont 241 7.69 6.44 1.97 .297 66 152 6.61 -0.7 Chris Hook
Spenser Watkins 489 5.33 4.39 1.72 .304 71 141 6.11 -0.7 Mark Woodyard
Sandy Baez 474 5.97 4.46 2.05 .303 67 148 6.48 -1.1 R.A. Dickey

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Based on that comp, the Tigs should make very damn sure Fulmer doesn’t start any interleague games in an NL park