Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/3/18

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Hey guys!

2:00
Dan Szymborski: The chat has started.

2:02
Jimmy Ballgame: Thoughts on delino deshields going forward?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: I think a lot of it comes down to how good he is full-time defensively in center

2:03
Dan Szymborski: The results have been mixed – I don’t think long-term he’ll contribute enough in a corner.  Luckily he has a clearer path

2:03
Beni and the Betts: You teased the Yankee list today.  When is it coming out?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m about the submit it to the Cistulli Sample.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Which means Friday!

2:04
Josh Nelson: The last two seasons a White Sox hitter has far surpassed their ZiPS projection (Adam Eaton in 2016, Avisail Garcia in 2017). Which White Sox hitter going into 2018 do you think ZiPS is low on?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Maybe Tim Anderson.  He has the tools still I think to suddenly put it all together

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Especially defensively

2:05
Oklahomabrave : What Do you see AA and Braves doing the rest of this offseason for trades if anything

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Anthopoulos was always a tricky GM to predict in Toronto and I expect that to continue.  Very tight-lipped organization; they and the Dodgers literally kept that Kemp trade away from ALL writers, as far as I know

2:06
Dan Szymborski: I expect he’ll look for upside values rather than do any Markakis-type signings

2:06
Mike: Will you start to include batted ball data, via statcast, in your ZiPS model? I have no idea how you would do that, but I’m curious if that’s possible.

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Some has been included since 2014 (not statcast), more is included in this year’s live version.

2:07
KW: Darvish, Arrieta or Cobb — which SP do the Cubs sign?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Despite hilariously debunked signing rumor, I think the Cubs *do* end up with Darvish in the end.

2:07
Henryv: Is the variability in framing metrics from year to year a result of a lack of high-quality data, variance in the actual results, or actual variability of the skill set of the players from year to year?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: There’s a few things.  Variance int he actual results is a big one.

2:08
Dan Szymborski: And most umpires aren’t Angel Hernandez.  If it’s around everywhere that X player is getting crazy good framing numbers, a lot of umps will be aware of that.

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Because framing isn’t like BABIP or something in which those plays did happen.

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Framing is literally tricking the system.

2:09
EK: How much of a fantasy impact do you see Jacob Faria having?  In a league wins don’t matter

2:09
Dan Szymborski: I like Faria, but I think he’ll only come into play in deeper leagues.

2:09
(not that) James: How bananas are Acuna’s bananas projections?  If you can’t give actual numbers, then on a scale of 1 to 27 bananas.

2:09
Dan Szymborski: It already has him above two WAR for 2018, which is crazy for a 20-year-old.

2:09
Dan Szymborski: Annoyingly, Steamer likes him a little more than ZiPS

2:10
husky harris: Why has WWE wasted Bray Wyatt? The character had so much potential, and now he’s being out-Wyatted by Matt Hardy.

2:10
Dan Szymborski: The WWE has a long-term trend of midcard/upper-midcard laziness.

2:10
Dan Szymborski: Once a guy sin’t seen as a main-eventer, they just kinda float around WWE, mainly existing.

2:11
Dan Szymborski: And the second-tier titles (International/US) have been cheapened so much over the last 20 years that they’re not great Maguffins anymore.

2:11
EK: How confident are you in Tommy Pham still being a high end OF in 2018?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: Depends what you mean by high-end.  I’m confidently he’ll be a really good player, though I predict a lesser-than-2017 season.

2:12
Druidiful: So is it true that FanGraphs is pivoting to video in 2018?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: OK, gotta find my graphic for this type of quesiton.

2:12
Dan Szymborski:

2:13
zurzles: any juice to my theory that Duquette has purposely been tanking/half-assing the O’s ever since he wasn’t allowed to interview with the Blue Jays back in like, 2014? I know it’s easy to just blame Angelos but in a way, this totally legitimate theory is also blaming Angelos

2:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s tanking, but more or less employed by an ownership that ham-handedly interferes and with a manager he has limited authority over

2:14
GP: You mentioned somewhere (Twitter?) that you were playing with adding Statcast data into ZiPS. Did poor batted ball profiles from several Twins hitters (Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, etc.) factor into fairly poor projections for the Twins offense?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe that any of this trio were effected by poor batted ball profiles really.

2:14
Dan Szymborski: More like simply a lot of ups and downs in their offensive resumés

2:14
Slapshot: Will whatever long term deal Eric Hosmer signs be the worst of the offseason, or will that belong to one of Arrieta or Darvish?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Given that he hasn’t quickly runned to sign 7/147, if that’s true, or 7/140, I’d say Hosmer is the worst this offseason

2:15
Bob Villar: Dynasty question: Carlos Santana for $24 or Braun for $30?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Santana

2:15
Ya Main Man’s: How many starts do you think Walker Buehler makes this year?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, 5?  The Dodgers can afford to be conservative

2:17
Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Michael A. Taylor will regress, badly. True or False.

2:18
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll do a good job holding onto the power as long as the environment is what it is, but the BA will come down significantly, I think

2:20
Dan Szymborski: My BABIP model in ZiPS thought he “should have been” a .309 and .315 BABIP guy in 2015 and 2016 (actual .311 and .319.  ZiPS thinks that Taylor should have been, from the advanced hti data, a .320 guy in 2017.  He was at .363.

2:20
Estevao: Corey Hart and Eric Hosmer both played exactly 1048 Games, guess who has the better career WAR, Hart 12.8 to 9.9, wOBA, Hart .348 to .338, wRC+, Hart 113 to 111 thoughts

2:20
Dan Szymborski: haha

2:20
Willie Calhoun : ZIPS and steamer love me. How about you?

2:20
Dan Szymborski: I do too.  I think you’ll hit.  EVEN THOUGH ITS NOT REALL YOU

2:22
Rod: Any chance Ozzie Albies hits 15-20 HR this year?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks so!  And not a chance, the mean is in that area!

2:22
Dan Szymborski: The computer loves Braves prospects as much as it hated Kemp and Markakis.

2:23
Mike Stanton: Dan, between the Marlins payroll slash, the slow FA market, and the vanishing of the middle class for FA, do you think there is a significant problem for the players with  how teams are handling FA in this salary cap but no floor era we seem to be in that needs to be addressed at the next CBA talks?

2:24
Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA has so declined in power that they probably couldn’t even get a floor in talks right now.  I’m not talking about a salary floor either, but like a bunch of hardwood flooring from home depot or lowe’s.

2:24
Dan Szymborski: I suspect any change will be how revenue is shared rather than a floor.

2:24
Wes: Does ZiPs pick the comps or are they manual after ZiPs provides the rest of the stats?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: No, ZiPS picks a giant cohort of players that are similar – the comps are just the guy at the top of the list.

2:25
Dan Szymborski: I don’t change it unless I insert one as a joke.

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Like the one hidden in the Blue Jays

2:25
Dan Szymborski: (I never put an actual player as a joke one)

2:26
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes Steve Sharts is someone’s top comp and someone thinks that it’s some kind of scat humor, but it’s an actual guy

2:26
Estevao: Anyone thinking about trading for Billy Hamilton, just don’t, go pursue Juan Lagares, he doesn’t have baserunning value, but the superb defense and slightly less worst hitting makes up for it, in overall value

Lagares 10.1 WAR 553 G
Hamilton 10.6 WAR 537 G

Juan’s just cheaper if available, thoughts on that

2:26
ryan: do you have an estimate of when the braves zips is dropping?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: The Braves are one of the later ones this year since they were one of the earlier ones last year

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Next year is a totally random 30 team order.

2:27
Estevao: Note on the Rockies, They have now committed upwards of 100 mil for 3 years of Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw, more exactly 106 million dollars, which means those 3 will make a combined 35.3 per year over the next 3 years, wrote an article on it, any thoughts

http://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/2018/01/the-colorado-rockies-stra…

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Meanwhile, the offense has gigantic holes.

2:27
Tim D: Buxton and Moncada have nearly identical zips.  How do you think they will stack up long term?

2:28
Dan Szymborski: I like them both a whole lot, so I’m not sure I can really pick one.  You can say “gun to your head, pick _____” but you know what?  I’m at my house and MY DOOR IS LOCKED

2:28
CapnZippers: SO HOW ABOUT THAT YANKEE BULLPEN?

2:28
Dan Szymborski: As a non-Yankee fan, I’m really annoyed by the ZIPS for that pen.

2:28
Estevao: Yandy Diaz, among all qualified hitters in the majors this past year his Avg Exit Velocity of 91.5 ranks 8th sandwiched in between Stanton and Goldschmidt, his problem is very simple he makes Eric Hosmer look like Ryan Schimpf
STOP HITTING THE BALL ON THE GROUND. 59.0 GB% he was one of 6 players to have at least half of their batted balls at 95 MPH+, 50.8% to be exact. http://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/2017/12/hey-man-jump-on-flyball-b…

2:28
Tom: Predict the future: team with most W in 2019 and pitcher/hitter with highest WAR that year?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: Got future articles coming about stuff like this!

2:29
Bill: Do you think the Cardinals will be able to convince Toronto to sell Josh Donaldson for the right price? Or more importantly will STL pay enough to entice the Blue Jays?

2:29
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Donaldson moves until trade deadline.

2:29
Dan Szymborski: I think you have to literally bowl the Blue Jays over, as in make the front office fall down like they slipped on a banana peel with an offer, to get them to really pull the trigger right now

2:30
Bill: Do you play fantasy baseball?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: Of course, I just don’t write for the fantasy side as often!

2:30
McCovey Cove Dave: Do you expect the number of HRs in MLB to set a record in 2018. How much of recent HR hitting trend do to the ball vs the players?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: That’s the problem, it’s still hard to knwo for sure what these things “should” be.

2:31
Dan Szymborski: I tend to think that it’ll come back a little, simply because I hate predicting unprecedented things

2:31
Bill: Single best stat to evaluate a position player besides WAR?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: Bit of a tough question as WAR is more of a blanket family of stats than one specific stats.  Stats that combine a player’s offense and defense are going to tend to be of the WAR variety, even if you use a different denominator.

2:32
Dan Szymborski: Like if you can count WAA, then that

2:32
Dan Szymborski: but it’s really just a different baseline for a similar stat

2:33
Dan Szymborski: OPS+ and ERA+ are fine, but there’s stuff missing

2:33
RSO: Which is a bigger need for the Yankees a 2B/3B or SP?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: 3B I think

2:33
My name is Judge…: the royals offered hosmer how much?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: The rumor is 7/147

2:33
Dan Szymborski: hold on need to catch my breath from laughing

2:34
Wes: I could have gone all winter without hearing Angel Hernandez’s name.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: I’m going to steal one of my Tweets as I t hink it was a solid one.

2:34
Dan Szymborski:

I don’t get all the index card jokes. Index cards have been used by umps and refs for a long time to clarify certa… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…
30 Dec 2017

<script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Dammit

2:35
Dan Szymborski:

I don’t get all the index card jokes. Index cards have been used by umps and refs for a long time to clarify certa… twitter.com/i/web/status/9…
30 Dec 2017
2:35
Dan Szymborski: Dammit, I’m failing internet

2:36
Dan Szymborski:

2:36
RSO: What does a peak Gleyber Torres season look like on ZiPS?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has his peak at nearly 130 OPS+!

2:37
leprekhan: Long time listener, first time caller (kinda). Great fan of your work, but why do you keep stealing data from the guy who creates ZiPS? 🙂

2:37
Dan Szymborski: One of my favorite ZiPS-related memes.

2:37
Jeff: Today’s ZiPS for the Twins shows Max Kepler almost exactly in line with his 2016 and 2017 production (93, 92, and 95 wrc+). Is he just kind of a boring offensive outfielder at this point or is there still room for him to grow into something more?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: There’s still upside remaining, but ZiPS was never really on Team Kepler

2:38
MrMet33: Twins have said Trevor May might get a shot at a rotation spot next year. Would like to see a few starts as part of his final projection.

2:38
Dan Szymborski: I’ll see what happens in the spring

2:38
Josh: If Eric Hosmer were a FA next year would he get more than 5 years?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: Depends if Moore/Preller are still employed, apparently

2:39
Dan Szymborski: I would’ve said no, but…well…yeah

2:39
Rod: Who is the highest ranked Braves prospect you would feel “comfortable” trading?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: It always comes down to the player being traded for of course!

2:40
Dan Szymborski: Like if you’re getting Mike Trout straight-up, I’m suddnely very comfortable trading anyone!

2:41
Dan Szymborski: Maybe I don’t throw an insta-fit when we get to Travis Demeritte level?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: Then again, I did throw one about the Padres and de los Santos

2:41
My name is Judge…: how many starts for kopech?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: 15?

2:41
Bill: Do you agree with the high projects on Willie Calhoun this year?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I think I do

2:41
Eric: Do you see more clubs trying to “game” the 10 day DL to rest pitchers in 2018 like the Dodgers did in 2017?

2:42
Dan Szymborski: Yup.  Any good trick worth doing is worth stealing.

2:42
Yo Yo: Hi Dan, Aledmys Diaz fell through the proverbial ZiPs cracks between St. Louis and Toronto.  Anyway I can get a quick projection for him with OPS+ and WAR?  TY in advance.

2:42
Dan Szymborski: I posted him on Twitter!  Now you gotta wait a couple weeks

2:42
Bob Villar: Do you think Buxton will surpass his ZiPS projections of 18 homers and 24 stolen bases?

2:42
Dan Szymborski: He could, but he’s been all over the place offensively

2:42
Deathsticks Guy: Do you think the Giants can win more than 81 games? Like is there any room anywhere on that roster to outperform projections? Or are they just screwed?

2:42
Dan Szymborski: I think it COULD happen.  ZiPS, depending on assumptions, has them around 75 wins and it doesn’t take all that much being wrong to get them to 81

2:43
Dan Szymborski: But in the contending sense, I think the Giants are kinda screwed without BIG moves

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I had a fun chart in a piece a few weeks ago

2:44
Dan Szymborski: It’s not for lack of trying

2:44
Dan Szymborski: But the Giants have lost out in quite a few competitions for players

2:44
RSO: Is Josh Harrison a good fit for the Yankees?

2:44
Dan Szymborski: On a general level, yes

2:44
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: The Dan Szymborski Consecutive Chat Streak for 2018 begins and it currently stands at 1!  Could it beat 2017’s streak of 3?

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Consistency is overrated

2:45
Jeff: What is the optimal Washington Nationals outfield configuration in 2018?

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Stanton/Trout/Harper

2:46
Dan Szymborski: I’m not getting away with that answer, am I?

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Personally, I’d go Eaton/Robles/Harper with Taylor getting 350 PA scattered around, but I don’t think they’ll be that aggressive with Robles

2:47
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: New chat, who dis?

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Your mom

2:48
Slapshot: What was your personal WWE Match of the Year for 2017?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Cena/Styles at the Royal Rumble

2:48
Tim: Is there any widely available minor league raw data? I’ve been working on my own data and can’t find anything that’s usable.

2:48
Dan Szymborski: No, I have to obatin my own

2:48
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Have you ever run into a question you really, really wanted to answer, but couldn’t due to a dubious username?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Actually yes.  Sometimes someone picks a foul-mouthed handle that I probably can’t get away with

2:49
big trade need help: in an OBP dynasty league…Would you trade Andrew Benintendi for Ronald Acuna and Manny Margot?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:49
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Aside from Machado, would the O’s get real value from trading away any of their other players?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Schoop

2:49
Dan Szymborski: He’s not THAT far from FA either

2:49
RSO: Is Mariano Rivera a first ballot HOFer?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:49
Forsyth: Can you tell us the next 3 ZiPS teams?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Yes, I have the ability to.

2:49
My name is Judge…: re:  jokes in zips.  mike tyson for yolmer sanchez?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: He was a real Cardinal!

2:50
EL: Who will be starting in cf for sf?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: I think someone not in the organization.

2:50
Estevao: Colorado’s overall batting WAR was 13.7, 12.1 belonged to Charlie and Nolan, the rest of the hitters amounted for 1.6 WAR https://t.co/2FrYcPpWnr

2:50
Wes: Is Mike Lit the easter egg in Tor ZiPS?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: No.  I’ll say it next week for those that haven’t figured it out

2:51
Bort: Wouldn’t Hosmer in Colorado on a deal with an early opt-out make a bunch of sense? He gets to inflate his production a bit, bypass the 2019 FA jamboree and re-enter the market as a 29-year old in 2020?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: It’s actually not a terrible idea if they could convince him.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: But it’s hard when the Padres are dropping mustard gas from the ROFLCopter.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Well, they would be if they didn’t use blue uniforms for no good reason.

2:52
Rod: If you’re Anthopoulos, do you sign Todd Frazier?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: No

2:52
Andy J.: Which team has the best overall ZiPS so far (including the Yankees)

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Dodgers

2:53
John: Wouldn’t Moose be smart to take a 20 million pillow contract and shoot for 4 years 80 million when teams fall out of Machado-Donaldson race? Or should he take a 60-70 million deal now?

2:53
Dan Szymborski: I think his best bet is stilll to try to get what he can

2:53
Dan Szymborski: Dammit, 7 minutes until I have to scram and I’m answering half-hour old questions.

2:53
Rick Souddress: Who wins AL RoY in 2018 and how close is it?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: I wrote a piece!

2:54
Daniel: These leaked salary amounts could be Boras leaking them, as one of the padres reporters stated 7 years is correct, but the amount is less than 140 million.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: One would hope

2:54
Bob Villar: Will Jose Berrios strike out 200 batters with 30+ starts?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: He  very well could!

2:55
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has been on Team Berrios for awhile.  It barely gave a crap about his awful debut.

2:55
Andrew: What does ZiPS think of David Price’s elbow?  Cause for concern?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: That’s a little out of scope.  ZiPS can evaluate, very generally, players knowing their past injuries, but can’t really make any kind of diagnosis

2:55
Erik: Did you notice that Avisail Garcia’s top ZiPS comp is Roberto Clemente? But also that he’s projected to be a below-average player?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: Look at Roberto Clemente’s career and you’ll see why!

2:56
Dan Szymborski: He was a late bloomer

2:57
Dan Szymborski: He didn’t really have his second star-level season until he was almost 30

2:57
Dan Szymborski: That’s not saying that Avi Garcia’s *future* comps to Roberto Clemente’s future, but that his past does.  And Clemente’s past at Avi’s age was extremely mixed.

2:58
Dan Szymborski: The rest of the comps are MUCH worse

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Crap, I’m falling behind and now you have me getting Avi comps now

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Delmon Young, Pat Tabler, Al Cowens, Derek Bell, Mark Quinn, Ken Berry

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Jesus Alou, Ron Swoboda, Jerry Morales, Xavier Nady, Lyle Mouton, Glenn Wilson, Matt Murton, Jermaine Dye, Glenn Braggs

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Terry Whitfield, Felix Jose, Gabe Kapler, Rick Reichardt, Dmitri Young, Jim Lentine

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Most guys like Roberto Clemente in his mid-20s don’t become Roberto Clemente in his late 20s or 30s.

3:02
John: Some of us Padre fans may come across a little aggressive, but I wanted to let you know I truly enjoy your your work, tweets and chat. Nothing wrong with stirring the pot, keep up the good work.

3:02
Dan Szymborski: I’d be bored if people didn’t get mad at me.

3:02
My name is Judge…: do you ever pick extra questions from a user because of their handle name?

3:02
Dan Szymborski: I try not to.

3:02
Dan: Do you accept flowers or marriage proposals?

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Yuck.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like flowers because I’m not into decoration and since I don’t know all the names of the flowers, it’s hard for me to figure out what is and isn’t poisonous to cats

3:03
Dan Szymborski: And I’m trying hard to avoid marriage

3:03
Dan: It feels like zips is being more aggressive with RPs and SPs this year. Am I wrong? Lots and lots of mid 80s FIP- RPs and 106 or better SPs?

Also, if you were Derek Jeter, would you eat yourself?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: No real changes here that would affect that.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how to answer the second one.

3:03
My name is Judge…: can i nominate you to be the official teacher of Oregonians in learning how to pump their own gas?  PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DIE!!!!!

3:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m still laughing about that

3:03
Eminor3rd: Carlos Mario Manzeppi lol

3:04
Matt: Serious question about projections (and ZiPS). Just for the LULz, I ran a simple linear regression on ZiPS 2017 OPS, and 2017 actuals (for 100+ actual PAs). I got a .3 adj r-square. I understand that this is actually pretty good, and that the environment might be changing a bit ahead of ZiPS adjustments, but none the less, it was a bit lower than I expected. What do you consider a “successful” comparison to actuals. Do you consider one, or does the focus on “true talent means” make comparing to actuals a non-thing? (Hope this doesn’t come off as me challenging your system).

3:04
Dan Szymborski: The error ranges are massive!

3:04
Dan Szymborski: Put it this way:  ZiPS has a 2.5% projection for Hosmer being WORTH $200 million over the next 6 years.

3:04
Bob Villar: Best WWE star who’s gotten the least amount of push, currently?  my vote is for Cesaro.

3:04
Dan Szymborski: Not a bad choice

3:04
very sad man: I just had my entire big mac meal fall on the floor. Is there anyway to salvage today?

3:05
Dan Szymborski: No, just sadness.  I know that pain too much.

3:06
Dan Szymborski:

3:06
B_Don: Where are these comps mentioned?

3:07
Dan Szymborski: Stole them from the ZiPS guy

3:07
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I’m really late.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: I’m supposed to run pick up my mom’s car from the shop.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: No, I’m not sure how that became my problem, either.

3:08
Dan Szymborski: But I have to go bring her her car if I’m going to get my car returned.

3:08
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

3:09
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.  Also my book in your local bookstore  if I ever get around to writing one.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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