Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/30/2020

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And away we go

12:03
LAXTONTO: Have you ever tried using SAS Enterprise Miner?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not.

12:03
LAXTONTO: How do you reconsile that one of your cats can levitate and yet you have never caught him in the act?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s lots of weird things in the world.

12:04
Connor: Dan, will you ever make the zips projected career war remaining that you occasionally reference in your articles publicly available?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not sure. They’re fun fodder for articles and they change fairly quickly.

12:04
AB: Who has a better, say, 3-year outlook – Sandy Alcantara or Brad Keller? thx

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably Alcantara

12:04
Anonymous: is Joey Votto washed up?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, but prime Votto is over

12:05
Jacob: What teams do you think have the best yohng

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what that is.

12:05
LAXTONTO: Does the utilization of nontraditional data sources ie text, image and distance vector data, sometimes overcomplicate analysis?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No, in the big picture a lot of these things are fairly simple.

12:05
Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Morning Dan (west coast).  An interesting sidebar to the trash can thing.  Could you see pitchers who feel their careers were negatively affected by the scandal take legal action?  Mike Bolsinger pitcher 0.1 innings in 2017 against the Stros, 4ER, never heard from again,.  There were bangs on 12 of his 29 pitches.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if this is something the courts would deal with; you’d have to have solid data on what the value of those bangs were.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’m not a lawyer

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Laxtonto, I’m not answer all 75 of your qs

12:06
BlueJayMatt: What’s the biggest animal you could throw over a football crossbar?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: cat?

12:06
AB: Is ZiPS out on Taylor Trammell? What’s his median outcome look like? Thx

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Over in Padres

12:07
greg: If I were to conduct an OOTP fantasy draft, somehow ranking all of the players based on their ZiPS projections, overall I’d do pretty darn well, right?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would think so as OOTP uses it for the initial start

12:07
LAXTONTO: Can you recommend me a laptop? Needs to be strong enough to do simeple work but would be mainly for travel to conferences and to do simple writing while sitting on the couch.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some HP or Lenovo convertible proably

12:07
kingdome: why so low on Mariners outfield?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because ZiPS doesn’t think it’s very good other than Haniger?

12:08
Inaccessible Rail: When did “dialoging” become a verb?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 1883

12:08
Magic Kingdome: For the Super Bowl party, should I bring pizza sauce or a potato?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: dependso n your state.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Pizza sauce for North Dakota, a potato if Nevada or Idaho.

12:09
Chris: Doesn’t Puig make way to much sense in Colorado? Besides giving away their comp A pick or arenado, how can they make this happen?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It appears he would need to work for free.

12:09
Matt: How do you determine what order to do the zips projection articles in?  Hoping the Phillies are soon!

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Random number.

12:09
Bistrin: My third favorite writer here on FanGraphs is Stan Dzymborski. Incredible talent.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Stan is the worst.

12:09
Magic Kingdome: Considering this is the last year the bulk of the Rays’ roster will be still be pre-arb or arb1, this should have been the year they spent a little extra to “go for it,” right?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but what are the odds of THAT really

12:09
Mookie’s Bowling Ball: Is it just me, or do the Red Sox feel like a team that isn’t as good as the sum of its parts? I know projections have them performing a bit above last year & looking at the roster that makes sense, but a poor performance last season, shake-ups at GM & manager, the cheating scandal still looming, Mookie trade talks & whatever impact that has, etc.  

This team is full of all the ‘x-factor-y’ variables that supposedly have negative impacts & they have a couple guys with reputations for making those issues worse (whether or not those are reasonable reputations). So I guess the question is, what do you think the likelihood is that they perform to expectations or even beyond (assuming Mookie stays)?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s really taht they’re not as good as the sum of their parts as much as the part depth is quite unimpressive.

12:11
Texas Cards Fan1: It’s mind boggling the Cards had a shot to get a 3B who will end In the Hall of Fame. How much would’ve been too much to give up for Arenado? I’d have traded any but Flaherty. Help me understand how they let this slip away. Thanks.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Everything I”ve hard around baseball is that the Rockies have been completely unrealistic about his value.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which makes ense, because the Rockies ahve been completely unrealistic about everything and anything.

12:12
Dbo: My coworker made the argument that a chicken biscuit is not a breakfast food, cant any food item techbically be a breakfast food?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes. This bedroom has an oven.

12:12
Dbo: Dan! My work blocked fangraphs chat! Do i quit my job now?!?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup, and burn it down to protect others.

12:12
Bistrin: Have you seen Cavan Biggio’s feet? Longenhagen put an 80 on them. I’m at a loss of words.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually paid attention. Perhaps I shoudl

12:12
Matt: Is Josh Bell the All-Star Player he was in the first half of last season, the barely-serviceable player he was in the second half, or somewhere in between as ZIPS seems to indicate?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In between usually works

12:14
Rox Fan: A sub-100 wRC+ for David Dahl and 0.9 WAR (Steamer projections) seem pretty low given his actual MLB numbers to date, don’t they?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d take the over, but you’d have to ask the Steamer guys!

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s not ludicrously low; all the projection systems are kinda meh on him. ZiPS is the least down and even that’s only an OPS+ of 104

12:15
Machadres: What is the max contract you’d be willing to give Mookie if in charge of a team with deep pockets next offseason?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 10/350

12:15
Matt: How do CBA considerations play into service-time manipulation? Are teams less concerned about playing youngsters early because they expect service time to be addressed differently under the next CBA? Or are they more hesitant to play those players due to the uncertainty?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it really has an efefct, becuase the CBA will be whatever the CBA will be.

12:15
WetButt23: What do you think of this Betts trade proposal? Padres get Betts & JBJ, assuming all of what they are owed in 2020 ($38M, which will count against the Red Sox luxury tax if they don’t trade them). The Padres trade Myers, Margot, Morejon, & Ryan Weathers (or another 100-200 prospect). The Red Sox pick up all of Myers 2020 salary ($22.5M), while the Padres pick up $7M of Myers’ deal in each of 21 & 22 ($14M total). All told, between Myers, Margot, Morejon, and Weathers, the Red Sox take on $25M in base salary in 2020, plus $31M total for Myers in 21 & 22. In doing that, though, the Red Sox reduce their 2020 lux tax hit by $22M in 2020, b/c Myers’ is only a $13.8M hit to the lux tax & Margot only $2.5. This would put them right around the tax threshold of $208M in 2020, avoiding the $10M in lux tax fees on top of the salaries owed to Betts and JBJ. Doing this deal effectively reduces what the Red Sox owe in 2020 by $22M. SD’s payroll goes up $15M in 20 & down by $15M in both 21 & 22 from the current projections.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s a lot for me to digest in a 30 second read-and-answer!

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s probalby in the neighborhood, but I think the Red Sox would insist on another prospect in addition.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If they were inclined to straight dump JBJ, thety could’ve done it in the offseason

12:18
Jim Leyland Palmer: So ZIPS loves Chris Sale this year, how risky do you think he is from a fantasy perspective?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Quite, Who knows what his health is.

12:18
Bistrin: Nico Nornpiece, Nico Hoerner, or Nico Mannion? Give one a hair cut, drive one to the airport, feed one grapes. Go.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: heh

12:19
Jon: Who’s going to win the AL Central?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Twins are mild favorites.

12:19
kingdome: projecting forward a few years, who do you see as most valuable Bryse wilson, tony gonsolin, or adrian morejon?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bryse

12:19
guest: What are your thoughts on the Dusty hire?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fine in the short-term, but the Astros will regret it if they don’t move on from Baker after a year or two

12:20
Cool Dick Lovelady: A cheese sandwich should just be cheese between to other slices of cheese.  The outer slices must be the same cheese.  The inner slice must be different than the outer slice.  Should be served with dipping condiments up to and including ranch.

12:20
Bistrin: I hate to spill the beans, but Luis Arraez is going to blow the door hinges off the proverbial flood gates.

12:20
Magic Kingdome: What was Mike Trout’s exact words when he found out that the best pitcher the Angels added this offseason was Dylan Bundy?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “I’m the real pope of Flavortown of Anaheim.”

12:21
Wicho, Jr.: What would Betts do for the Padres’ Wild Card chances?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, up?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run the exact numbers.

12:22
OddBall Herrera: Can you think of any player who would win the “Player whose name sounds like a place stodgy Englishmen play polo” competition over Austin Meadows?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Roemon Fields?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Scarborough Green?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Guess he’s not current

12:23
ResumeMan: One of the big reasons people gave in opposition to the use of PEDs are the long-term health consequences and how it wasn’t fair to essentially force people to risk their health in order to keep up.

It’s now been >20 years since widespread use of steroids was known to have happened. Have there been any ex-ballplayers we know of who’ve suffered grievous harm to their long-term health after years of using these drugs?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say but we haven’t really seen anything yet, but I think you need an actual study

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s not like players tpyically parade around their illnesses.

12:24
Anonymous: whenever the chat isn’t talking about Mitch Keller, someone should be asking “Why aren’t we talking about Mitch Keller?”

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jeter is the one true Poochie

12:25
Paid Shill: Re: laptop recommendations.  Go buy a refurbished one off Amazon or something.  If you don’t need super gaming specs, you can get all the RAM and hard drive you need for < $400.

12:25
GRB: does puig make sense for StL?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The biggest problem with Puig is that he’s not very good.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Cards have not very good.

12:25
DD8: Any chance of getting a projection for Luiz Gohara?  I noticed he didnt get one with the Angels.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, did he fall through cracks? I’ll write him up

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: err on the to do list

12:26
I Like Her Not: Did you ever take a typing or keyboarding class in HS (or any other time)?  Asking for…everyone who has to read your chat answers.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sorry, in this format I don’t mind being a bit sloppy.

12:26
Paid Shill: Did you know there are ZERO openings for paid shills on GlassDoor?  Talk about a tight job market

12:26
Anonymous: if it takes me until my dying day, i will make you face justice for that ‘sowing Derek Holland oats’ joke someday.

12:26
Dans cat: What team might we see tomorrow from ZiPs? If you dont answer me Ill knock your mug on the floor.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One of the ten teams remaining!

12:27
michael szymborski: I enjoy having breakfast in bed. I like waking up to the smell of bacon, sue me. And since I don’t have a butler, I have to do it myself. So, most nights before I go to bed, I will lay six strips of bacon out on my George Foreman Grill. Then I go to sleep. When I wake up, I plug in the grill, I go back to sleep again. Then I wake up to the smell of crackling bacon. It is delicious, it’s good for me. It’s the perfect way to start the day. Today I got up, I stepped onto the grill and it clamped down on my foot… that’s it. I don’t see what’s so hard to believe about that.

12:27
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: What will it take for Kyle Tucker to get at bats for the Astros?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tucker to age 10 years.

12:27
cavebird: According to the International Chili Society, beans can be in any type of chili other than “traditional red chili,” in which beans and pasta are not allowed.  Doesn’t this show that chili can have beans?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the international chili society uses it extra-national approach to keep from being sent to jail for being wrong

12:28
kevinthecomic: If a cat levitates in the kitchen and there is no one there to see it, is he really off the ground?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:28
Dans cat: Are you in favor of expansion? If so, what cities do you think make the most sense?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In a world in which owners can’t block, a team in NC and a third NY team.

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But no expansion if we then have four-team divisions.

12:28
Anonymous: wOBAcon the best-named advanced baseball statistic

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: TOOTBLAN

12:29
cmkeller: Is Jorge Soler likely to stay in KC past free agency? And would it wise for the Royals to try to make that happen?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe 30%. No.

12:29
Sox Fan: Who says no first, Mookie and David Price to the Dodgers for Verdugo, Keibert Ruiz and Jeter Downs. Sox pick up 11 million a year of Prices contract.

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d be shocked if the Dodgers did that.

12:30
TomBruno23: Do you agree with the Cardinals essentially punting this off-season? Gawlowski’s article was on-point https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-may-have-missed-an-opportuni…

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if they think they’re punting, but it’s been a really lame offseason for them, especially in light of nobody in the NL Central trying really hard to get better other than the Reds

12:31
Jason N: Do you think the Cubs salary constraints are about maximizing cash flow, or minimizing luxury tax (i.e. dead/unproductive money)?  Seems that could influence whether they would be interested in a Bryant swap where they have to take back a contract with high cash out but low luxury tax number (think:  would they take on Wil Myers in a swap like the Sox are considering)?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Why not both?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t see them being interested in a Bryant swap that *neither* gets them prospects or huge savings.

12:32
pakkap: aj pollack, tony gonsolin, and keibert ruiz for betts and price. price has three/96 remaining on his deal. pollack has four/47, but there’s an 5mm opt out for 2023 (which you’d assume boston would exercise), so you can figure out a way for boston to eat some of the price money and minimize/eliminate luxury exposure for la. 

pollack is a legit bat who would probably play up in the al with a day a week at dh. ruiz and gonsolin alone give boston a potential battery (or even a closer). betts speaks for himself and slots right into centerfield for la, price is a legit back end option among the passel of arms la has secured, and losing pollack off the payroll helps with flexibility.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I just don’t think that any of these scenarios in which the Dodgers give up any prospect that good are likely to be ones the Dodgers are interested in.

12:33
TomBruno23: Scarborough “Bert” Green, great deep cut. Same high school as Ryan Howard and David Freese. You’re welcome.

12:33
Jason N: Chili must have tomatoes in it.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Beef. Chili peppers. Seasoning. Only acceptable addition is some masa harina if you want to thicken it up a wee bit.

12:34
Beetlejuice: How does ZIPS like Castellanos after his breakout year? BABIP and ISO seem about right given move to Wrigley and his UZR has improved. Other projections aren’t kind but is there reason for optimism in Cincinnati?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s always the chance that something improved permanently in Chicago.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But if this were more likely than not, then a “last two month” projection system would perform better for players who had huge last two months. It doesn’t.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Castellanos is fine, but I don’t think there’s actually a breakout here.

12:37
Cool Dick Lovelady: Puig should come play for the Royals.  Then we can be DJ Yaaaas and LL Cool D.

12:37
TomBruno23: Which team is the Skyline Chili of MLB, and why?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s no team as bad as Cincy chili

12:38
Johnny5alive: Not to get political, but apparently it’s perfectly ok for a president to do whatever he wants to help his re-election chances. What are the odds we even have an election in November?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 100%

12:38
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Do people pronounce “wOBAcon” as “woe-bacon” or sort of like “Lake Wobegon” like “WOH-buh-con?” I’m concerned that I’m way out of line by doing the latter.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I say woe-bacon

12:39
Anonymous: there is literally a baseball player named ‘Winter Polo’

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like players who sound like snooty English butlers or harry potter characters

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Chadwick Tromp, Callix Crabbe

12:39
OddBall Herrera: On a scale from carpaccio to burned campfire marshmallow, how cooked do you think Votto’s career is?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: slightly overseared sea scallop

12:40
J: Will you still be needed for chats when ZiPS becomes sentient?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One could say I’m not really needed now.

12:40
OddBall Herrera: Right now Fangraphs’ ad widget is showing me an awkward political ad where Mike Bloomberg is offering to be my budget OB/GYN.  What did I google to deserve this?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tom Steyer Tentacle Porn

12:40
Them: I don’t think I am as secure in any belief I hold as you seem to be in your opinions about chili. I envy the strength of your conviction, even as I question its validity.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can question it all you want, you’d just be wrong.

12:41
Chad: Spencer Turnbull has any ceiling? Seems like a 4/5 at best but minors numbers solid and he gave up minimal homers last year during HomerFest2019

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t see much of a ceiling, but I think he’s a good inning eater.

12:41
v: Beef, chili peppers, and seasoning is gonna be an awfully dry chili

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not if you did a poor job selecting proper beef.

12:41
TomBruno23: Garrett Stephenson always fit the “snooty English butlers or harry potter characters” category for me

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sterling Hitchcock

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Blake Hawksworth, though that sounds also like a soap opera name

12:44
tom: “Not if you did a poor job selecting proper beef.”…doesn’t make sense.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Err good job

12:44
jake: Red sox acquired Kevin Plawecki? Does this matter at all?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was their big offseason signing!

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And no

12:44
Anonymous: trend across the league has been to make outlier stadiums play more neutral. when’s a team gonna zag, make a team suited to a wonky park and cheese out a competitive advantage that makes everyone hate them?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to do

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because the way to optimize offense is pretty clear.

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Just like it’s hard to win with a really goofy opening against a chess master

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, you play Grob’s Attack? Magnus Carlsen cares not and will destroy your world now.

12:46
Monica Punta: WhIch film will/should win Best Picture?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen enough to say really. I don’t watch a ton of movies in the current year

12:46
kev: zips is much lower on lamet than steamer, why

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Guys, I can answer what ZIPS does, but without knowing the inner workings of Steamer, I can’t say why Steamer’s opinion is different.

12:47
Chet: Not to get political but chili and stew are both soups and can usually be interchangeable

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m banning your IP

12:47
Anonymous: What would a return for Ozzie Albies have to look like? Would casuals who don’t know his contract particulars be dumbfounded?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Absolutely massive.

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Given the contracts that come with it.

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think you can make an argument that it should take a little more to fetch Albies than Trout.

12:47
Matt: Does it make sense for the Phillies to go all in and send Bohm and other prospects to the Cubs for Bryant? Do the Phillies have enough in their farm system to get him?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it would. And I”M not sure.

12:48
TomBruno23: How do we live in a world where there is such a disparity between the Ozuna deal and the Castellanos deal?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gimme a Q! Gimme an O! What’s the spell! Nothing without a U!

12:49
TomBruno23: I have an avocado on my desk. Is it worth the time to cut it open and have as a snack?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Avocados have a bad mouth feel. I don’t like them.

12:49
Angles Fan: Mookie and Price to the angels for Upton, Adams and Soriano. Angels pick up Prices whole contract Soxs take Uptons

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well that’s kinda underwhelming

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure taking UPton is worth Adams and Soriano for free.

12:51
Anonymous: The Astros were fun to watch. The Astros cheated. Ergo, cheating is fun. Mandatory cheating implemented next CBA?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They should make it into one of those paranoid party games where two people are the murderer and the other people ahve to figure out who the murderers and who the innocent are.

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It can be a seasonal tiebreaker

12:52
Andrew Yang: Who finna win iowa

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Iowa Cubs will remain the Triple-A champs of Iowa.

12:53
Opinions!: Parasite is far and away the best of the competitors.  Joker is a hugely overrated piece of bunk.

12:53
Not uniwatch: Top 5 favorite MLB logos?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Brewers glove logo.

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 1.

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s so good nobody gets to be 2, 3, or 4.

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Then in 5th place, a tie between the Yankees for being classic, Athletics 40s elephant logo, tigers old english D with the tiger in it, and the colt .45s because it’s GOT A FREAKING REVOLVER IN A SPORTS LOGO and the C was like smoke

12:56
mike: I can’t think of an interesting question (not that that seems to be a requirement here), so I’ll just say thanks for all the entertainment.

12:56
S: Brewers barrelman logo should be number 1.

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It loses points because barrelman looks a bit like the tin man’s unemployable cousin

12:56
Anonymous: what will be Gen X’s legacy? the last actually good rock’n’roll?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Robot Chicken?

12:57
JB: Jaffe always gets rhe HOF questions so lets try your knowledge.  Joe torrie got elected as a manager.  Can he still be Inducted as a player ?  Foe that matter can be inducted as a league official?  I could see an argument that he is worthy of three inductions.

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Hall of Fame can induct absolutely anybody they want.

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The board can say “Hey, we’re going to induct Steve Garvey as an out-of-wedlock childbreeding innovator” and they can just do that.

12:59
Phone interview: I’m talking to Dick Williams in a few minutes – anything you want me to ask him?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ask if there’s an afterlife. While I don’t personally think there’s one, if he’s on the phone then the possibility exists!

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: or you’re talking with the other DIck Williams.

1:00
Nolan: Is Adrian Beltre the greatest player who never won an MVP award or a World Series?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He ought to be up there, but there’s no doubt I’m forgetting someone

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s hard when I have like 30 seconds to think

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, Nap Lajoie? Or is that cheating?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You guys like asking me questions there’s no way I can think about an answer and still keep things moving.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m only answering 15% of questions already and it’s a flurry of misspelling and confusion.

1:03
Just curious : I am having trouble getting ZiPs to pull up, what am i doing wrong?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You have to be using my computer.

1:03
S: For the ZiPS player comps, is it comparing to the overall career or a specific year of the comp player’s career? Or something else? If it’s a specific year of the comp player, could you list that in the table?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In this case, the linked article I believe does explain it!

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In the ZiPS pieces.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At the bottom

1:03
bosoxforlife: I vote for Ernie Banks.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Beltre’s better than Banks.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Also, has MVP

1:04
Lagniappe: Teddy Ballgame never won a WS.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But he won an MVP

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Guys, the question is MVP *or* WS.

1:04
Anonymous: it’s bananas to me that Michael Jordan and Tim Tebow became middling-caliber minor-league baseball players. Isn’t hitting professional pitching supposed to be insanely hard? How is that possible?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On some level, it’s quite impressive that they both just picked it up.

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But at least the White Sox didn’t pretend Jordan was a prospect, of course.

1:05
Magic Kingdome: Lightening Round:  Best Super Bowl dish?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Potato

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: look up a good recipe for potato

1:05
Morbo: The Colt 45s should have never changed their name, should have hired Billy Dee Williams as their mascot, and made Colt 45 as the only beverage available their ball park. Not only would this have been the best and most synergistic marketing plan ever it would have entirely negated the need for the Astro’s sign stealing schema because Billy Dee Williams could have just sold the opposing team out to the Empire every game. Also they would have had a huge advantage of the other team not being used to drinking colt 45 from their dugout cooler for an entire game.

1:06
cmkeller: Rafael Palmeiro, maybe?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Guys, you gotta beat Adrian Beltre.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not Esteban Beltre.

1:06
Just curious : Barry Bonds exists

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: HE HAS AN MVP

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m going to ask Meg for permission to murder all of you. She has the authority, you know.

1:07
Them: Wait, what, do you seriously get the sense the Mets have ever considered Tebow to be anything other than an incredibly effective attendance draw?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Mets are odd.

1:08
mt: Mike Piazza

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d still take Beltre, but at least you’re not a dirty dirty cheater like the rest!

1:08
Morbo: Correction he has multiple MVPs

1:08
watchman: Tony Phillips is the best player to ever not make an ASG in the modern era

1:09
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Piazza hit 427 HRs .308/.377/.545 at catcher, come on

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Adrian Beltre

1:09
Vroom Vroom Guy: does it not make sense to make service time mirror rookie eligibilty? If you played enough this year that next season you are not in consideration for rookie awards, that counts as a year of service time.

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The problem with bright lines in this way is that you always have teams playing with the guys just on the other side of the bright line.

1:10
JAMES: Do pitchers count it was never specified

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so, but I think most great pitchers have an MVP or a WS

1:10
Them: For fudge’s sake. “The Mets are odd” is a pretty weak cop-out. If you can’t defend yourself better than that, answer another comment about chili instead.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re talking about a team whose ownership got involved in the biggest scam in history, thought Jose Reyes could still play baseball, and has a history of diagnosing injuries worse than a Civil War-era doctor.

1:12
JB: Early wynn   300 game winner

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I wouldn’t take Early Wynn over Adrian Beltre.

1:12
Morbo: Did Carson cede his murder authority when he left for the great white north or did Meg take it in some kind of highlander battle of the written word and baseball statistics which involved a disturbingly large amount of lightening directed at one specific billboard?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Carson can’t order murders, but he can still be blamed for things.

1:13
Magic Kingdome: Gaylord Perry!  Career 100.5 WAR.

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s actually a good answer.

1:14
James: Gaylord Perry highest WAR as pitcher no MVP or series title

1:14
TP: Dan, any plans to build out a section of gambling content on FanGraphs?

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If there are, I don’t know about it. I don’t know about everything.

1:14
Cito’s Mustache: Was about to answer Wade Boggs but then remembered he won a World Series with the Yankees. Ew.

1:14
Chris: Why don’t you want 4 team divisions with realignment?

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Four-team divisions are dumb.

1:15
Frank: Tony Gwynn? Jim Thome?

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d take Beltre

1:15
Overbearing Padre: Betts goes to SD, or LA? Your guess.

1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think I’d take a surprise team first.

1:16
Kurupt FM: For the love of god can we expand the playoffs, it’s depressing when so many teams don’t even have a long shot at the playoffs before the season starts. Would also alleviate the need for such severe boom bust cycles.

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Please no

1:17
James: Who is set to inherit zips in your will?

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Whoever finds the encrypted USB stick I’ve hidden in a state park and asks my executor for the password.

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I should probably make a treasure map

1:17
Anonymous: Best Ball is gaining popularity as a fantasy sports format. MLB should follow suit and let pitchers throw 3 baseballs at once for an instant strikeout (the batter can swing at any of the pitches, obviously)

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Francoeur would violate spacetime and swing and miss three times in one swing.

1:18
TomBruno23: Nope, my buddy Jason Bodensteiner lives in Cedar Falls, IA. Huge Mets fan. Definitely wins Iowa.

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know Jason, but is he better than the Iowa Cubs? I know the Cubs farm system is weak, but he’s just one dude.

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless…

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DOES JASON HAVE THAT

1:19
Mac: Is Danny Salazar a good idea for a rebuilding team? He won’t cost much, and there is huge upside in him where he could be flipped for something at the deadline. Granted that the upside is very very unlikely.

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he would be a good addition.

1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was thinking he’d end up an Astro, but who knows now.

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dusty Baker’s the manager and they’re interviewing the Royals scouting director for a team who hasn’t developed much in a decade now.

1:20
Alex: Chamce that the padres get Mpoloe

1:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mpoloe is no Kakey Bryan

1:21
cavebird: Lajoie is the correct answer in B-WAR.

1:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The problem is that it’s kinda cheating since the MVP wasn’t a thing until last several years of his career

1:22
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Why don’t you just marry Adrian Beltre!?

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: MAYBE I WILL

1:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I bet he’d let me hire someone to go to houses and flip over your pots of inferior faux-chili.

1:23
Fritz Reiner: You may only choose one composer’s works to listen to for the rest of your life: Gustav Mahler or Dmitri Shostakovich. Who do you choose and why?

1:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Shostakovich because there’s still Shostakovich that I haven’t listened the crap out of yet.

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Also, he was the real Harry Potter.

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:24
Magic Kingdome: Dan and Adrian Beltre were in the closet making babies and I saw one of the babies and the baby looked at me!

1:24
Busty Baker: Nice self inflicted-punishment hire by the showstros

1:24
D: Looking at the ZIPS projections, I’m confused about the “def” column. Does that include both fielding and position adjustment? Thanks!

1:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No. Relative to positional average.

1:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I prefer positional penalties to have their own discrete columns and not be baked in

1:25
Morbo: Additional note for those who don’t believe my previous accounting of ZIPS post Dan’s death: ZIPS years long observation of Gandhi in civilization allowed it swiftly annihilate all of earth’s armies in a matter of minutes leading to almost immediate global pacification,

1:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Have you played the most recent Civilization VI? For some reason, John Curtin/Australia always seem to be the biggest warmongers and are constantly stabbing me in the back.

1:26
Magic Kingdome: I got a case of the ZiPS once during Spring Training in Cocoa Beach

1:26
Chuncey Wiggins: Is zips on the cloud? Or would a villain with a giant magnet ruin everything?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s in the cloud and my bank vault!

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, safety deposit box.

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a bank VAULT

1:27
Magic Kingdome: Potato or Five Bean Chili?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Five Bean because if there are only five beans, it might not be that hard to remove them

1:27
Tyler: Are you optimistic Trevor Bauer bounce back to his 2018 self?

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2018? No.

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t keeping that HR rate.

1:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But he shoudl be *good*

1:28
Magic Kingdome: Is it weird that the most accurate depiction of an ex-athlete on TV was probably Ted Danson as Sam Malone on Cheers?

1:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wanna believe it’s Kenny Powers

1:28
Guest: is Lindor overrated cause of his personality? 114 WRC+ isn’t that great.

1:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a top notch defensive SHORTSTOP

1:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Is Randy Johnson overrated? Crappy saves total and BARELY hit .100.

1:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And now to end chat, but one parting gift, the neural network’s decision on why you all are Literally the Worst.

1:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski:





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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dorsmitch
2 years ago

I know someone did some compiling of all the bang counts in Astros games, it’d be tedious as hell but I’d love to see how some of the analytics on pitches which they were alerted to stack up against their season/career averages.

Not basic ratios – but the behind the scenes numbers like these:

SwStr & Swing% and the zone segment where the pitch was located (down away, up in, etc) – its an added complication but I think pitch placement is important to consider – generally are they susceptible to say a change-up down and away that drops off the plate, but because they now know its a change they recognize it’s going to drop out as a ball and hold off? etc

Also EV, LA, and Barrel rate – are they squaring up specific pitch types more when alerted? These tell way more than average does on such a small sample size set