Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/4/24

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Tacoby Bellsbury: What has been the ZiPSiest transaction of the offseason, and what would be the ZiPSiest potential one from here?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. Or even what the question means!

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Jung-hoo Lee? When ZiPS evaluates the opt-out it gets relaly close to actual

Mike: What new legend player would you most like to see in MLB The Show 24?

Dan Szymborski: TETTLETON

Dan Szymborski: But more seriously, I dont’ think we’ve ever had Gooden?

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing!

matt w: Apologies for a question you’ve probably answered (but I can’t find it)–when do you do ZiPS for a player who signs with a team after you’ve posted the team’s projection? WIth their old team, or  as part of a free agent roundup?

Dan Szymborski: Usually, since the ZiPS go up just a few days after the last team, they go up properly on the site at that point

Dan Szymborski: Though I’ll usually post it if someone bugs me on Twitter about it

Sir Nerdlington: Is there an area of forecasting about which the general public would be shocked at how far along MLB teams are? Injury? Chemistry?

Dan Szymborski: Some of the mechanics stuff

Dan Szymborski: I think a lot of people would be surprised at what front offices *don’t* do

Dan Szymborski: Like they generally don’t devote much time to trying to make better generalized metricds

Dan Szymborski: metrics

Dan Szymborski: I notice that lots of people have this idea there are secret internal WAR measures that are a billion times better

Dan Szymborski: But generalized stuff isn’t typically a great use of front office time

Doug: Jarren Duran and Marcelo Mayer for Logan Gilbert. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Both I think

Victoria: Is ZIPS terrified of a Shane Bieber extension?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what the deal is!

matt w: Scouting reports on the current locations of the cats?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say – I’m out of town at the moment so I’d have to call my mom and check where she saw them when she was over there

Matt (Oceanside): Do you think the Dodgers are an organization that could successfully go to a six-man rotation, especially with Ohtani coming back in 2025, but also for 2024 to facilitate better health and availability for Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buehler, Miller etc? They have a huge chunk of major league ready prospect arms in Sheehan, Frasso, Stone, Grove, Hurt, Knack, and River Ryan, plus guys like Yarbrough. I’ve heard that it doesn’t really work most times because you need 6 arms that are good enough, but I don’t really buy that line of thinking. Teams seem to need around 10 starters to get through a season because of health. What say you?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll simply be flexible depending on who is healthy at any given time

Dan Szymborski: They’re fine with juggling a bunch of talented pitchers I think

Zach: Despite all the handwringing and rending of garments this offseason, am I wild for thinking the Mariners are better than they were in 2023? Kelenic and Suárez are recognizable names with real questions about their future production, whereas Mitch Garver can really hit. It hasn’t been an overwhelming offseason but the angry fan sentiment seems wildly disconnected from the reality of the team, to me at least.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think BETTER

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: It’s like John Fisher said, “Screw it, I’m going full supervillain on this town”: https://apnews.com/article/ballers-minor-league-bs-oakland-as-a9053b35…

Tyler: Hi Dan, I’m just curious. What percentage of people who cover baseball in some form or another actually know the math behind the analytics they cite? I’ve always loved baseball and thought I had a decent ability to write and speak intelligently about it, but I don’t actually know why or how certain statistics are calculated the way they are. I read a lot about analytics and understand how to interpret many of them, but I feel like in order to go out and try something like a podcast or blog I should know more about the nuts and bolts of the numbers. Is this necessary in your opinion? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how to answer this *exactly*. The exact degree of understanding is going to be a full spectrum

Dan Szymborski: And some things have more math behind it than other things

Dan Szymborski: I mostly try to focus on *my* understanding of things

Dan Szymborski: and let others do what others will do, objecting if something seems awry

Mark: Not too hard to find the run expectancies for the 24 base / out states for the professional level, but I was wondering if you knew of anyone calculating them for amateur levels. College has to exist somewhere, right? And high school and youth might exist?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen them

Dan Szymborski: College may very well exist, but I don’t know where!

Reuben: Do you have any suggestions for sources when building a projection system? Specifically, I was recently looking for how historical comps inform a system like PECOTA (or ZiPS).

Dan Szymborski: Depends the exact question. Someone reverse-engineered the concept of Mahalanobis distance that I use in assembling a big ol’ cohort

Dan Szymborski: https://brandon.nguyen.vc/2021/06/finding-player-comps-with-mahalnobis…

BOB: HI DAN, THANKS FOR THE CHAT.   YOUR RECENT POST OF THE DBACKS ZIPS MENTIONED PFAADAT AND HIS ZIPS RATING WAS BOOSTED BY HIS STELLAR PLAYOFF RUN.  JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE, DO PLAYOFF STATS COUNT TOWARDS A PLAYERS ZIPS STATS/RATINGS?  THANKS

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: I mean YES

JoJo: How much of a root impact doe The Martian make in 2024?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Ben: Hey Dan, how much does ZiPS like/dislike Grissom?  He seems like the type of player ZiPS would really like but I haven’t found much written about him.

Dan Szymborski: It likes him fine…ish?

Sir Nerdlington: Are we really just rooting for variance when we go into spring every season?

Dan Szymborski: In a manner of speaking, yes

Brett Phillips: ZiPS is kinder to me than Steamer. I am going to solve the White Sox RF issues, right? /s

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox have so many issues that it’s basically immaterial

TW: Which AL east team is most likely to flop this year?

Dan Szymborski: In terms of *downside* I think the Yankees have the most, simply because so much of their value is tied up in like three dudes.

Dan Szymborski: But the Red Sox are probably the *weakest* overall team.

Dan Szymborski: And the Rays certainly lose a good chunk now that it seems far less likely that Franco plays in 2024 (or maybe ever)

Sean: Is there one move that the M’s could make that would put them right in the mix with the Astros and Rangers?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so — there just isn’t a Juan Soto out there

Dan Szymborski: unless I’m allowed to do crazy stuff like an implausible trade

Yogi: Favorite breakout catchers for 24? Bo Naylor? O’Hoppe? Yainer?

Dan Szymborski: O’Hoppe has to be up there. I haven’t thought of my breakouts piece yet

Long Range HOF: Happy New Year Dan!   Which players majors or minors age 25 season or less last year, excluding Soto or Acuna, does ZIPS project as coming closest to the HOF?

Dan Szymborski: Easy one: Julio

Sir Colton Keithburg: It’s September 2024 and a team (not a preseason favorite) has come out of nowhere to clinch their division handily. Who’s the team?

Dan Szymborski: Cleveland?

BOB: LAST SEASON, THE DBACKS DFA’ D KRISTEN ROBINSON AND HE CLEARED WAIVERS.  ARE YOU SURPRISED NOT ONE TEAM TOOK A GAMBLE AND CLAIMED HIM?

Dan Szymborski: I was a little surprised, but I’m sure given the optics, they didn’t want to commit in the middle of a season

TKDC: So the Braves basically got Chris Sale for 2/$21m with a $18m club option in exchange for Grissom. Win or big win?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a very reasonable swap given the roster

Scotty H: What was the 80th percentile HR count for Schwarber?

Dan Szymborski: 47

Dan Szymborski: though JUST HR it’s a litlte more but I don’t have it front of me

Dan Szymborski: That’s the HR *in* his overall 80th percentile season

Dan Szymborski: but if it’s just HR and not an 80th percentile season for other stuff, it’d be i nthe 50s

Matt Chapman: Do the Jays really think they can replace me with an IKF/Cavan Biggio platoon?

Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to think so

BOB: THE SF GIANTS ZIPS LEFT OF SZAPUCKI, WAS HE OVERLOOKED OR INTENTIONALLY LEFT OFF?

Dan Szymborski: Just missed him. He’ll be in final set

Victoria: Re Bieber, Castillo got 5/108 and is a bit better. I wouldn’t touch that for SB.

West Philly Fred: Happy New Year!  Thanks for the chat.   With respect to prospects, what is the median career WAR Zips would project for a player with Future Value (FV) of 60 vs 40?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have that available quickly, unfortunately

John: Are Colby Mayo + Connor Norby fair headliners for Cease?_

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think that’s too much

Dan Szymborski: If it’s Mayo, then it’s MOSTLY Mayo

romorr: If the Marlins want to trade Luzardo, would you move Sammy Basallo for him if you are Elias? Since I don’t think he’s going to be moved, who would intrigue you more in Baltimore, Cabrera or Rogers?

Dan Szymborski: I would consider it, but not part of a *package*

Victoria: Did you and Eric coordinate posts for today?

Dan Szymborski: We did not, it just happened to work out that way

RickG: When it comes time to release the White Sox ZiPS projections, will you bother with a write-up, or will you just ask AI to create a mash-up of Southpaw and Sluggerrr and paste it to the top of the page?

Dan Szymborski: I might just do them all on the back of a napkin, since that’s what the White Sox do

Geoff Braine: Hi Dan! It seems that Austin Wells has been moving up the prospect charts recently. I really liked what I saw last September and he looks like an ideal platoon partner for Trevino. I think his ceiling may be Posada; what do you think his floor is?

Dan Szymborski: Hey Geoff!

Dan Szymborski: That’s a name I always like hearing, I hope things have been going well for you

Dan Szymborski: I think the floor is quite low because catchers are incredibly complicated as prospects

Dan Szymborski: Some of them just flat out drop off and disappear

Dan Szymborski: even on the verge of making the majors

Chet Manley: With obviously very little knowledge of the actual talks as well as not fully knowing the constraints Angelos has set on spending, etc., doesn’t it feel a little like Mike Elias and company need to be a little more open to dealing prospects, even if it means they run a little higher risk of “losing” a trade? They’re already pretty much out of room for infielders, Ortiz and Norby aren’t getting any younger… just feels like it’s time to take a big swing, right?

Dan Szymborski: Now, if ORTIZ and Norby fetched Cease, I think the O’s already closed that deal

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that with the O’s apparently being unlikely to spend much money on anything or anyone EVER, unless Angelos changes course, they’re kind of in the Rays category in that they *need* those prospects if they’re going to work out

Dan Szymborski: Because they’ll continually have to replace graduating 27 year olds

Dan Szymborski: We may already be at the halfway point for Adley’s stint in Baltimore

Lance Biggerstaff: “Nothing” for lunch? Who are you, Oliver Twist?

Dan Szymborski: Every other day, yes!

gbs42: Regarding the Sale trade and extension, does the $17M Boston is paying reduce Atlanta’s CBT calculation for this season? I’m wondering if the extension lowers or increases their CBT hit.

Dan Szymborski: I *think* it does

Nova: Which O’s prospect do you consider yourself highest on as compared to the field/industry: Holliday, Basallo or Mayo?

Dan Szymborski: Basallo

Dan Szymborski: maybe Norby

Snell: I feel like I used to think Snell didn’t throw a lot of innings, but with all the “big brain” teams going for “well look some of these guys might be healthy in October”, he doesn’t seem as non-durable.

Dan Szymborski: I mentioned that a bit on twitter last week. Top teams are more willing to just have a bunch of very talented injury risks and juggling them around

Bb: Does FG show a player’s exit velocity by count? I’d like to see it for Bellinger.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe we do, but you can do that on statcast search

Tacoby Bellsbury: please tell me “BOB” is short for “BANK ONE BALLPARK”

Chase: Zips recommended cover athlete for The Show 24?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s gotta be Acuña, right?

White Sox: Hey, you don’t have to be so mean. “The White Sox have so many issues that it’s basically immaterial”.  (Even if it is true). Does ZiPS like Fedde?

Dan Szymborski: I will answer this with another question

Dan Szymborski: Did anyone ever advise you to not ask a question for which you may be psychologically unprepared to hear the answer?

Dan Szymborski: And I’ll just leave the projection at that! lol

Sodo Mojo: Based on Zips are the Mariners a better team now then they were at the start of the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re very roughly similiar

Dan Szymborski: similar

Victoria: Say Altuve plays 140 games with a WRC+ this year. Is he going to get something like 5/150 next winter?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, that’s pretty scary for any guy going into his age 35 season

Waste: Do you consider it a different sort of “waste of talent” when a guy does bad stuff and is sent away (see Franco, W) vs when someone gets injured and never reaches potential?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly less tragic (for the player, that is)

Dan Szymborski: If Wander doesn’t play again, I’m certainly not going to do a ZiPS Time Warp for him in 20 years

Dan Szymborski: There’s certainly not going to be a Felipe Vazquez time warp either

Didace: WHY IS BOB YELLING?

Dan Szymborski: IT GOT QUESTIONS ANSWERS DIDN”T IT?

Marcos: How would you finish (begin?) your offseason from here if you ran the Cubs? Assuming you have about $45M left in your budget and won’t trade Horton.

Dan Szymborski: At this point, I might just roll whatever I was going to spend this offseason into what I’m offering players over the next five years

Dan Szymborski: The Cubs have missed a lot of the really exciting players

Victoria: Chapman/Swanson/Hoerner would be an incredible infield

Dan Szymborski: THOUGH it could depend on how low Chapman goes

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s actually become a bit underrated

TomBruno23: Longtime (ie, old) Cardinals fan and I realize Every Season Is A Blessing (ESIAB) and all that being said should I even be excited about 2024?

Dan Szymborski: Excited? No, but the think about the NL Central is that there’s no particularly compelling team

Dan Szymborski: You should not get excited about me in a kickboxing tournament

Dan Szymborski: BUT if it’s a kickboxing tournament of eight year olds, I might be Bruce Lee

Dan Szymborski: (I know he wasn’t a kickboxer)

Glt4dc: It’s always a good story (or at least commented upon) when a prospect, traded player or FA plays for his hometown team.  But are there any indicators about whether a player benefits – or is hurt by – from this?

Dan Szymborski: Never seen anything

Marcos: What contract would ZiPS give Kershaw?

Dan Szymborski: 2/35

Mike: How do you see Woo Suk-Go slotting into the Padres bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: Him and Matsui might be their two best relievers

Dan Szymborski: Suarez has some big risks

JD: How would you start the season at shortstop if you are the Rays? Wander 🙁  and Walls looks like he may not be ready after surgery.

Dan Szymborski: I might just stuff Caminero there and see what’s magical

Dan: I know Fangraphs depth chats is not designed to project team wins but are there any consistent reasons a ranking of projected team WAR and projected team wins wouldn’t be in the same order? Schedule seems like an definite answer the others I can think of all seem like maybes.

Dan Szymborski: Risk isn’t the same from player to player. The projections are really just a bunch of 50th percentile projections after all, and we know THAT doesn’t happen

Dan Szymborski: The ZiPS season sims try to deal with depth

JT: Why does zips love Alex Thomas so much? 97 ops+ proj after 700 mlb PA of a 72? Wow

Dan Szymborski: Steamer did too! Both think his BABIPs have been too low

GA Blood: If you were able to pencil in the lineups for a team every day for one team this coming season which team would you want to have on your card? How much do you think you’d rely on ZiPS on a daily basis?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is a starting point, there are so many questions of fatigue and health that I wouldn’t just tell the computer to make a lineup

Dan Szymborski: Plus, since the difference between most non-crazy lineups is really damn small, I’d want to take into consideration player happiness/comfort as well

Eric: If the Padres look to clear up their infield logjam, what kind of return do you think Ha-Seong Kim would fetch?

Dan Szymborski: A sizable one!

Guest: How fragile is Eury Perez’s health?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a pitcher, so he’s basically always like a Civil War veteran who just received a gunshot wound and is heading back to the tent to be looked at

JWR: So we just continue to wait for Boras to continue his game of chicken with the remaining GMs?  When do you expect the logjam to end?

Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll see a flurry in mid January

JWR: Do you have a metric to measure the range of outcomes for a young player and who is a young player with a particularly wide range of outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: an exact METRIC? no

Dan Szymborski: Here’s how the percentiles did last year

Dan Szymborski: https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1730645538163327466

Refugee: Neither of ZiPS or Steamer thinks that Shane Bieber’s falling velo, K-BB%, or injury risk present a real problem in 2024 – what’s your personal take on it?

Dan Szymborski: It’s concerning, but he’s also adjusted somewhat to these issues

R: Please help me understand why fWAR gives 57% credit to pos. players and 43% to pitchers. Why those numbers?

Dan Szymborski: It’s an estimate because some of run prevention is defense

Dan Szymborski: I used to know exactly how it was derived, I think

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t generally agonize over it as it’s likely in the neighborhood of an ideal that I would calculate

Dan Szymborski: and it’s not generally a big deal since WAR is a relative measure

Scrapper: Should Tampa be looking to trade Paredes with Caminero presumably ready to play 3b in the not too distant future?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure they’re already thinking about trading everyone

Jason: What do you think the chances are that Wander Franco plays in the MLB ever again?

Dan Szymborski: I am not a lawyer and I’m DEFINITELY not a Dominican lawyer

Dan Szymborski: but…15%?

Dan Szymborski: But that’s pulling things out of my butt

Giant Gonzales: If it’s one or the other, should Boston try and sign Imanaga, or spend less on extending Pivetta? Or just plan on flipping anyone that will be a FA at the deadline like Jansen/Martin/Pivetta/Giolito if they’re pitching well?

Dan Szymborski: Imanaga

Dan: Can you write an addendum to the early off-season team writeup. I think rereleasing the one for teams that changed a lot would be a good bang for you buck in Sztmborski time/reader engagement

Dan Szymborski: I usually don’t simply because it’ll all be up on the site right after the projectiosn!

Dan Szymborski: I might talk about what’s changed when I do the start-of-spring projections

GA Blood: Colby Mayo + a truck full of Colby Cheese + a truck full of Hellmann’s Mayo for Dylan Cease

Dan Szymborski: GUYS ITS COBY

Dan Szymborski: Short for Cobillius

Sammy So-so: Bubula, we missed in Chatterville. You like the Bader signing for the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Jason N: My son came home from school saying mashed potatoes is a salad and referenced https://cuberule.com/.  Dan – you need to forget baseball and start working on fixing the school system.

Dan Szymborski: We shouldn’t use governmental definitions for the purpose of statuatory construction!

Dan Szymborski: Else we have our ketchup veggies

Silent J: is it realistic to dream about the angels making the playoffs this year or should I just give up on seeing Trout in October

Dan Szymborski: there’s probably a scenario that they snag a wild card spot that isn’t absolutely crazy]

Dan Szymborski: I’d still dream about it

Dan Szymborski: but I sure wouldn’t BET on it, u nless I got really long odds on it

Guest: You would kick an eight-year old?’

Dan Szymborski: Hey, in a kickboxing tourney

Dan Szymborski: and eight-year-olds are jerks

Dan Szymborski: I know I certainly was

Sergio Mitre: Don’t do that time warp either

Dan Szymborski: Thankfully, he was already in his 40s!

Dan: Do you have any nieces of nephews that would be willing to kick(box) you on the next holiday for social media?

Dan Szymborski: my two year old nephew can already beat up my four year old nephew

Dan Szymborski: https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1736463210641756519

Insert Witty Name Here: Best prospect for 2025? Smith, Jones, Rodriguez, Garcia, or Johnson?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I’m not spoiling stuff!

tortycraig: I was flabbergasted by McGreevy’s spot in the Cardinals projections til I realized the non-Gray pieces of that rotation just blow much worse than I had in my head

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s not that ZiPS loves McGreevy

Dan Szymborski: Wait, wasn’t there a Crazy Mike McGreevy in an episode of Law and Order?

Dan Szymborski: A lady jumped off a bridge after being threatened by him after a car accident

Dan Szymborski: but it turned out that the whole thing was staged because the son of John Cullum’s character was trying to silence her because he burnt down his father’s factory for insurance money

Tim: What’s the closest ZiPS “hit comp 1” so far this year? What’s the closest “pit comp 1”?

Dan Szymborski: There was someone who accidentally got comped to himself because of text mistmatch

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ remember who it was

Dan Szymborski: OK, it was Crazy Mike McDugan

Dan: If you were currently the 2,000 best 15yo baseball player in the world what country would you want to live to maximize you career baseball earnings?

Dan Szymborski: I think still the US

Steven: The ZiPS Acuña projections you published in September pegged him as finishing his career with 112 WAR. That relies on him sustaining excellent (or at least well above average) production well into his 30s. What is it about his skillset that makes ZiPS/you optimistic about his ability to age so well?

Dan Szymborski: He’s so well rounded and he’s young enough that this might not be a peak, but his BASELINE or something nearer to it than most people having a season like this

Greg: I arrived late and haven’t had a chance to catch up so I’m sorry if this has already been asked but did you run a projection for Hoskins? I noticed that he wasn’t with the Phillies.

Dan Szymborski: Oh dang, did I forget to do hoskins?

Dan Szymborski: Hang on

Matt: Is there a world where Montas and the reds end up executing on that 2nd year $20M mutual option and it seems like a good move for both? .

Dan Szymborski: Yes. He could only pitch a little, but be awesome, and still worth signing to a one-year, $18 million contract and be willing to take one

Greg: Where’s a good fit for Kyle Stowers? He seems about as blocked in Baltimore as a young player can be

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really sure Stowers is going to hit enough to be anything mroe than a fourth outfielder

Dan Szymborski: and you can always use a fourth outfielder

Dan Szymborski: Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR   2024 .234 .335 .461 449 65 105 28 1 24 74 63 130 2 117 -2 1.4

Dan Szymborski: (Hoskins

wheelhouse: as a general rule, do projection systems struggle with guys i’d term as drastic players? guys who have one or two exceptional attributes but also glaring weaknesses

Dan Szymborski: Not usually. These types of calibration errors are easier to iron out

Quarantino Martinez: Can someone tell Mike Elias the Orioles are on “mute”?

John Thacker: After all, in Nix v. Hedden (1893), the Supreme Court correctly noted that for statutory construction a tomato is a vegetable, even if biologically it is a fruit.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for the week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!

Greg: I saw Crazy Mike McDugan on a field trip once, he was sitting in the saloon at the end of the bar. We sure hoped he wouldn’t start no trouble…