Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/4/24

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

12:01
Tacoby Bellsbury: What has been the ZiPSiest transaction of the offseason, and what would be the ZiPSiest potential one from here?

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. Or even what the question means!

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe Jung-hoo Lee? When ZiPS evaluates the opt-out it gets relaly close to actual

12:02
Mike: What new legend player would you most like to see in MLB The Show 24?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: TETTLETON

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But more seriously, I dont’ think we’ve ever had Gooden?

12:03
The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nothing!

12:03
matt w: Apologies for a question you’ve probably answered (but I can’t find it)–when do you do ZiPS for a player who signs with a team after you’ve posted the team’s projection? WIth their old team, or  as part of a free agent roundup?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Usually, since the ZiPS go up just a few days after the last team, they go up properly on the site at that point

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I’ll usually post it if someone bugs me on Twitter about it

12:04
Sir Nerdlington: Is there an area of forecasting about which the general public would be shocked at how far along MLB teams are? Injury? Chemistry?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some of the mechanics stuff

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think a lot of people would be surprised at what front offices *don’t* do

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like they generally don’t devote much time to trying to make better generalized metricds

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: metrics

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I notice that lots of people have this idea there are secret internal WAR measures that are a billion times better

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But generalized stuff isn’t typically a great use of front office time

12:06
Doug: Jarren Duran and Marcelo Mayer for Logan Gilbert. Who says no?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Both I think

12:06
Victoria: Is ZIPS terrified of a Shane Bieber extension?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends on what the deal is!

12:07
matt w: Scouting reports on the current locations of the cats?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hard to say – I’m out of town at the moment so I’d have to call my mom and check where she saw them when she was over there

12:07
Matt (Oceanside): Do you think the Dodgers are an organization that could successfully go to a six-man rotation, especially with Ohtani coming back in 2025, but also for 2024 to facilitate better health and availability for Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buehler, Miller etc? They have a huge chunk of major league ready prospect arms in Sheehan, Frasso, Stone, Grove, Hurt, Knack, and River Ryan, plus guys like Yarbrough. I’ve heard that it doesn’t really work most times because you need 6 arms that are good enough, but I don’t really buy that line of thinking. Teams seem to need around 10 starters to get through a season because of health. What say you?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll simply be flexible depending on who is healthy at any given time

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re fine with juggling a bunch of talented pitchers I think

12:08
Zach: Despite all the handwringing and rending of garments this offseason, am I wild for thinking the Mariners are better than they were in 2023? Kelenic and Suárez are recognizable names with real questions about their future production, whereas Mitch Garver can really hit. It hasn’t been an overwhelming offseason but the angry fan sentiment seems wildly disconnected from the reality of the team, to me at least.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think BETTER

12:08
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: It’s like John Fisher said, “Screw it, I’m going full supervillain on this town”: https://apnews.com/article/ballers-minor-league-bs-oakland-as-a9053b35…

12:08
Tyler: Hi Dan, I’m just curious. What percentage of people who cover baseball in some form or another actually know the math behind the analytics they cite? I’ve always loved baseball and thought I had a decent ability to write and speak intelligently about it, but I don’t actually know why or how certain statistics are calculated the way they are. I read a lot about analytics and understand how to interpret many of them, but I feel like in order to go out and try something like a podcast or blog I should know more about the nuts and bolts of the numbers. Is this necessary in your opinion? Thanks!

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how to answer this *exactly*. The exact degree of understanding is going to be a full spectrum

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And some things have more math behind it than other things

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mostly try to focus on *my* understanding of things

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and let others do what others will do, objecting if something seems awry

12:09
Mark: Not too hard to find the run expectancies for the 24 base / out states for the professional level, but I was wondering if you knew of anyone calculating them for amateur levels. College has to exist somewhere, right? And high school and youth might exist?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen them

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: College may very well exist, but I don’t know where!

12:09
Reuben: Do you have any suggestions for sources when building a projection system? Specifically, I was recently looking for how historical comps inform a system like PECOTA (or ZiPS).

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends the exact question. Someone reverse-engineered the concept of Mahalanobis distance that I use in assembling a big ol’ cohort

12:10
BOB: HI DAN, THANKS FOR THE CHAT.   YOUR RECENT POST OF THE DBACKS ZIPS MENTIONED PFAADAT AND HIS ZIPS RATING WAS BOOSTED BY HIS STELLAR PLAYOFF RUN.  JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE, DO PLAYOFF STATS COUNT TOWARDS A PLAYERS ZIPS STATS/RATINGS?  THANKS

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean YES

12:11
JoJo: How much of a root impact doe The Martian make in 2024?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

12:11
Ben: Hey Dan, how much does ZiPS like/dislike Grissom?  He seems like the type of player ZiPS would really like but I haven’t found much written about him.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It likes him fine…ish?

12:11
Sir Nerdlington: Are we really just rooting for variance when we go into spring every season?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In a manner of speaking, yes

12:11
Brett Phillips: ZiPS is kinder to me than Steamer. I am going to solve the White Sox RF issues, right? /s

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The White Sox have so many issues that it’s basically immaterial

12:12
TW: Which AL east team is most likely to flop this year?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In terms of *downside* I think the Yankees have the most, simply because so much of their value is tied up in like three dudes.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the Red Sox are probably the *weakest* overall team.

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the Rays certainly lose a good chunk now that it seems far less likely that Franco plays in 2024 (or maybe ever)

12:13
Sean: Is there one move that the M’s could make that would put them right in the mix with the Astros and Rangers?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so — there just isn’t a Juan Soto out there

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: unless I’m allowed to do crazy stuff like an implausible trade

12:14
Yogi: Favorite breakout catchers for 24? Bo Naylor? O’Hoppe? Yainer?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: O’Hoppe has to be up there. I haven’t thought of my breakouts piece yet

12:15
Long Range HOF: Happy New Year Dan!   Which players majors or minors age 25 season or less last year, excluding Soto or Acuna, does ZIPS project as coming closest to the HOF?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Easy one: Julio

12:15
Sir Colton Keithburg: It’s September 2024 and a team (not a preseason favorite) has come out of nowhere to clinch their division handily. Who’s the team?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cleveland?

12:16
BOB: LAST SEASON, THE DBACKS DFA’ D KRISTEN ROBINSON AND HE CLEARED WAIVERS.  ARE YOU SURPRISED NOT ONE TEAM TOOK A GAMBLE AND CLAIMED HIM?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was a little surprised, but I’m sure given the optics, they didn’t want to commit in the middle of a season

12:17
TKDC: So the Braves basically got Chris Sale for 2/$21m with a $18m club option in exchange for Grissom. Win or big win?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a very reasonable swap given the roster

12:18
Scotty H: What was the 80th percentile HR count for Schwarber?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 47

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: though JUST HR it’s a litlte more but I don’t have it front of me

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s the HR *in* his overall 80th percentile season

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but if it’s just HR and not an 80th percentile season for other stuff, it’d be i nthe 50s

12:18
Matt Chapman: Do the Jays really think they can replace me with an IKF/Cavan Biggio platoon?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to think so

12:19
BOB: THE SF GIANTS ZIPS LEFT OF SZAPUCKI, WAS HE OVERLOOKED OR INTENTIONALLY LEFT OFF?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Just missed him. He’ll be in final set

12:19
Victoria: Re Bieber, Castillo got 5/108 and is a bit better. I wouldn’t touch that for SB.

12:19
West Philly Fred: Happy New Year!  Thanks for the chat.   With respect to prospects, what is the median career WAR Zips would project for a player with Future Value (FV) of 60 vs 40?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have that available quickly, unfortunately

12:19
John: Are Colby Mayo + Connor Norby fair headliners for Cease?_

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think that’s too much

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If it’s Mayo, then it’s MOSTLY Mayo

12:20
romorr: If the Marlins want to trade Luzardo, would you move Sammy Basallo for him if you are Elias? Since I don’t think he’s going to be moved, who would intrigue you more in Baltimore, Cabrera or Rogers?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would consider it, but not part of a *package*

12:20
Victoria: Did you and Eric coordinate posts for today?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We did not, it just happened to work out that way

12:20
RickG: When it comes time to release the White Sox ZiPS projections, will you bother with a write-up, or will you just ask AI to create a mash-up of Southpaw and Sluggerrr and paste it to the top of the page?

12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might just do them all on the back of a napkin, since that’s what the White Sox do

12:20
Geoff Braine: Hi Dan! It seems that Austin Wells has been moving up the prospect charts recently. I really liked what I saw last September and he looks like an ideal platoon partner for Trevino. I think his ceiling may be Posada; what do you think his floor is?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey Geoff!

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s a name I always like hearing, I hope things have been going well for you

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the floor is quite low because catchers are incredibly complicated as prospects

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some of them just flat out drop off and disappear

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: even on the verge of making the majors

12:22
Chet Manley: With obviously very little knowledge of the actual talks as well as not fully knowing the constraints Angelos has set on spending, etc., doesn’t it feel a little like Mike Elias and company need to be a little more open to dealing prospects, even if it means they run a little higher risk of “losing” a trade? They’re already pretty much out of room for infielders, Ortiz and Norby aren’t getting any younger… just feels like it’s time to take a big swing, right?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now, if ORTIZ and Norby fetched Cease, I think the O’s already closed that deal

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The problem is that with the O’s apparently being unlikely to spend much money on anything or anyone EVER, unless Angelos changes course, they’re kind of in the Rays category in that they *need* those prospects if they’re going to work out

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because they’ll continually have to replace graduating 27 year olds

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We may already be at the halfway point for Adley’s stint in Baltimore

12:24
Lance Biggerstaff: “Nothing” for lunch? Who are you, Oliver Twist?

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Every other day, yes!

12:26
gbs42: Regarding the Sale trade and extension, does the $17M Boston is paying reduce Atlanta’s CBT calculation for this season? I’m wondering if the extension lowers or increases their CBT hit.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I *think* it does

12:26
Nova: Which O’s prospect do you consider yourself highest on as compared to the field/industry: Holliday, Basallo or Mayo?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Basallo

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: maybe Norby

12:26
Snell: I feel like I used to think Snell didn’t throw a lot of innings, but with all the “big brain” teams going for “well look some of these guys might be healthy in October”, he doesn’t seem as non-durable.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mentioned that a bit on twitter last week. Top teams are more willing to just have a bunch of very talented injury risks and juggling them around

12:27
Bb: Does FG show a player’s exit velocity by count? I’d like to see it for Bellinger.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe we do, but you can do that on statcast search

12:27
Tacoby Bellsbury: please tell me “BOB” is short for “BANK ONE BALLPARK”

12:28
Chase: Zips recommended cover athlete for The Show 24?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s gotta be Acuña, right?

12:30
White Sox: Hey, you don’t have to be so mean. “The White Sox have so many issues that it’s basically immaterial”.  (Even if it is true). Does ZiPS like Fedde?

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I will answer this with another question

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Did anyone ever advise you to not ask a question for which you may be psychologically unprepared to hear the answer?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I’ll just leave the projection at that! lol

12:31
Sodo Mojo: Based on Zips are the Mariners a better team now then they were at the start of the offseason?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’re very roughly similiar

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: similar

12:31
Victoria: Say Altuve plays 140 games with a WRC+ this year. Is he going to get something like 5/150 next winter?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dunno, that’s pretty scary for any guy going into his age 35 season

12:32
Waste: Do you consider it a different sort of “waste of talent” when a guy does bad stuff and is sent away (see Franco, W) vs when someone gets injured and never reaches potential?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly less tragic (for the player, that is)

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If Wander doesn’t play again, I’m certainly not going to do a ZiPS Time Warp for him in 20 years

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s certainly not going to be a Felipe Vazquez time warp either

12:34
Didace: WHY IS BOB YELLING?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: IT GOT QUESTIONS ANSWERS DIDN”T IT?

12:34
Marcos: How would you finish (begin?) your offseason from here if you ran the Cubs? Assuming you have about $45M left in your budget and won’t trade Horton.

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: At this point, I might just roll whatever I was going to spend this offseason into what I’m offering players over the next five years

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Cubs have missed a lot of the really exciting players

12:35
Victoria: Chapman/Swanson/Hoerner would be an incredible infield

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THOUGH it could depend on how low Chapman goes

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’s actually become a bit underrated

12:35
TomBruno23: Longtime (ie, old) Cardinals fan and I realize Every Season Is A Blessing (ESIAB) and all that being said should I even be excited about 2024?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Excited? No, but the think about the NL Central is that there’s no particularly compelling team

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You should not get excited about me in a kickboxing tournament

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BUT if it’s a kickboxing tournament of eight year olds, I might be Bruce Lee

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I know he wasn’t a kickboxer)

12:36
Glt4dc: It’s always a good story (or at least commented upon) when a prospect, traded player or FA plays for his hometown team.  But are there any indicators about whether a player benefits – or is hurt by – from this?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Never seen anything

12:36
Marcos: What contract would ZiPS give Kershaw?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2/35

12:38
Mike: How do you see Woo Suk-Go slotting into the Padres bullpen?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Him and Matsui might be their two best relievers

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Suarez has some big risks

12:39
JD: How would you start the season at shortstop if you are the Rays? Wander 🙁  and Walls looks like he may not be ready after surgery.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might just stuff Caminero there and see what’s magical

12:39
Dan: I know Fangraphs depth chats is not designed to project team wins but are there any consistent reasons a ranking of projected team WAR and projected team wins wouldn’t be in the same order? Schedule seems like an definite answer the others I can think of all seem like maybes.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Risk isn’t the same from player to player. The projections are really just a bunch of 50th percentile projections after all, and we know THAT doesn’t happen

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The ZiPS season sims try to deal with depth

12:40
JT: Why does zips love Alex Thomas so much? 97 ops+ proj after 700 mlb PA of a 72? Wow

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Steamer did too! Both think his BABIPs have been too low

12:41
GA Blood: If you were able to pencil in the lineups for a team every day for one team this coming season which team would you want to have on your card? How much do you think you’d rely on ZiPS on a daily basis?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is a starting point, there are so many questions of fatigue and health that I wouldn’t just tell the computer to make a lineup

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Plus, since the difference between most non-crazy lineups is really damn small, I’d want to take into consideration player happiness/comfort as well

12:41
Eric: If the Padres look to clear up their infield logjam, what kind of return do you think Ha-Seong Kim would fetch?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A sizable one!

12:42
Guest: How fragile is Eury Perez’s health?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a pitcher, so he’s basically always like a Civil War veteran who just received a gunshot wound and is heading back to the tent to be looked at

12:42
JWR: So we just continue to wait for Boras to continue his game of chicken with the remaining GMs?  When do you expect the logjam to end?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll see a flurry in mid January

12:42
JWR: Do you have a metric to measure the range of outcomes for a young player and who is a young player with a particularly wide range of outcomes?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: an exact METRIC? no

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here’s how the percentiles did last year

12:45
Refugee: Neither of ZiPS or Steamer thinks that Shane Bieber’s falling velo, K-BB%, or injury risk present a real problem in 2024 – what’s your personal take on it?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s concerning, but he’s also adjusted somewhat to these issues

12:46
R: Please help me understand why fWAR gives 57% credit to pos. players and 43% to pitchers. Why those numbers?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s an estimate because some of run prevention is defense

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used to know exactly how it was derived, I think

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I don’t generally agonize over it as it’s likely in the neighborhood of an ideal that I would calculate

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and it’s not generally a big deal since WAR is a relative measure

12:47
Scrapper: Should Tampa be looking to trade Paredes with Caminero presumably ready to play 3b in the not too distant future?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m sure they’re already thinking about trading everyone

12:47
Jason: What do you think the chances are that Wander Franco plays in the MLB ever again?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I am not a lawyer and I’m DEFINITELY not a Dominican lawyer

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but…15%?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But that’s pulling things out of my butt

12:48
Giant Gonzales: If it’s one or the other, should Boston try and sign Imanaga, or spend less on extending Pivetta? Or just plan on flipping anyone that will be a FA at the deadline like Jansen/Martin/Pivetta/Giolito if they’re pitching well?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Imanaga

12:48
Dan: Can you write an addendum to the early off-season team writeup. I think rereleasing the one for teams that changed a lot would be a good bang for you buck in Sztmborski time/reader engagement

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I usually don’t simply because it’ll all be up on the site right after the projectiosn!

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might talk about what’s changed when I do the start-of-spring projections

12:49
GA Blood: Colby Mayo + a truck full of Colby Cheese + a truck full of Hellmann’s Mayo for Dylan Cease

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: GUYS ITS COBY

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Short for Cobillius

12:49
Sammy So-so: Bubula, we missed in Chatterville. You like the Bader signing for the Mets?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah

12:50
Jason N: My son came home from school saying mashed potatoes is a salad and referenced https://cuberule.com/.  Dan – you need to forget baseball and start working on fixing the school system.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We shouldn’t use governmental definitions for the purpose of statuatory construction!

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Else we have our ketchup veggies

12:50
Silent J: is it realistic to dream about the angels making the playoffs this year or should I just give up on seeing Trout in October

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: there’s probably a scenario that they snag a wild card spot that isn’t absolutely crazy]

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d still dream about it

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I sure wouldn’t BET on it, u nless I got really long odds on it

12:51
Guest: You would kick an eight-year old?’

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey, in a kickboxing tourney

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and eight-year-olds are jerks

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know I certainly was

12:52
Sergio Mitre: Don’t do that time warp either

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thankfully, he was already in his 40s!

12:52
Dan: Do you have any nieces of nephews that would be willing to kick(box) you on the next holiday for social media?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: my two year old nephew can already beat up my four year old nephew

12:54
Insert Witty Name Here: Best prospect for 2025? Smith, Jones, Rodriguez, Garcia, or Johnson?

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey, I’m not spoiling stuff!

12:54
tortycraig: I was flabbergasted by McGreevy’s spot in the Cardinals projections til I realized the non-Gray pieces of that rotation just blow much worse than I had in my head

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s not that ZiPS loves McGreevy

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, wasn’t there a Crazy Mike McGreevy in an episode of Law and Order?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A lady jumped off a bridge after being threatened by him after a car accident

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but it turned out that the whole thing was staged because the son of John Cullum’s character was trying to silence her because he burnt down his father’s factory for insurance money

12:56
Tim: What’s the closest ZiPS “hit comp 1” so far this year? What’s the closest “pit comp 1”?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There was someone who accidentally got comped to himself because of text mistmatch

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dont’ remember who it was

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, it was Crazy Mike McDugan

12:58
Dan: If you were currently the 2,000 best 15yo baseball player in the world what country would you want to live to maximize you career baseball earnings?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think still the US

12:58
Steven: The ZiPS Acuña projections you published in September pegged him as finishing his career with 112 WAR. That relies on him sustaining excellent (or at least well above average) production well into his 30s. What is it about his skillset that makes ZiPS/you optimistic about his ability to age so well?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s so well rounded and he’s young enough that this might not be a peak, but his BASELINE or something nearer to it than most people having a season like this

12:58
Greg: I arrived late and haven’t had a chance to catch up so I’m sorry if this has already been asked but did you run a projection for Hoskins? I noticed that he wasn’t with the Phillies.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh dang, did I forget to do hoskins?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hang on

12:59
Matt: Is there a world where Montas and the reds end up executing on that 2nd year $20M mutual option and it seems like a good move for both? .

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes. He could only pitch a little, but be awesome, and still worth signing to a one-year, $18 million contract and be willing to take one

1:00
Greg: Where’s a good fit for Kyle Stowers? He seems about as blocked in Baltimore as a young player can be

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not really sure Stowers is going to hit enough to be anything mroe than a fourth outfielder

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and you can always use a fourth outfielder

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR   2024 .234 .335 .461 449 65 105 28 1 24 74 63 130 2 117 -2 1.4

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Hoskins

1:04
wheelhouse: as a general rule, do projection systems struggle with guys i’d term as drastic players? guys who have one or two exceptional attributes but also glaring weaknesses

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not usually. These types of calibration errors are easier to iron out

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Quarantino Martinez: Can someone tell Mike Elias the Orioles are on “mute”?

1:04
John Thacker: After all, in Nix v. Hedden (1893), the Supreme Court correctly noted that for statutory construction a tomato is a vegetable, even if biologically it is a fruit.

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Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for the week

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Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!

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Greg: I saw Crazy Mike McDugan on a field trip once, he was sitting in the saloon at the end of the bar. We sure hoped he wouldn’t start no trouble…





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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David McCannmember
4 months ago

Thank you. Your chile is the best