Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/7/2021
12:02 |
: And welcome to 2021!
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12:02 |
: IT STARTS NOW, EVERYTHING ELSE WAS 2020.2
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12:02 |
: Welcome to one of the greatest chats in the history of our sport!
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12:02 |
: I am in the top 100% of all chats.
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12:02 |
: What do you think is the biggest area for potential improvement to ZiPS? What are you focusing on improving with the system?
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12:03 |
: Injuries, though that’s harder to actually *work* with
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12:03 |
: Mostly adding more percentile stuff (hitters will be upt his year)
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12:03 |
: improving model for playing time as in projecting when a player will lose time
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12:03 |
: doing more Gameday mining, which has paid off well in defensive data for minor leagerus
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12:03 |
: How many GMs tried to sneak players through waivers yesterday amid the chaos in DC?
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12:04 |
: <checks to see if the Rockies traded Nolan Arenado for Clint Frazier>
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12:04 |
: Do you think we get a 162-game schedule this year?
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12:04 |
: I’m cautiously optimistic
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12:04 |
: Who’s you’re number one player that you expect will absolutely outperform their ZiPS projection
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12:04 |
: Gotta wait for the preseason piece!
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12:05 |
: Did you see the responses to the passing of Jon Huber? I thought that AEW and even WWE (the company itself and the individual wrestlers’ personal in-ring references) did a nice job. I hope the Dark Order, for kayfabe reasons and for real life reasons, gets some time off to regroup before returning to action.
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12:05 |
: Yeah, it seems they did a good job
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12:06 |
: Was nice to see the belt itself retired
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12:07 |
: I’m torn on storyline changes because I can see an argument both ways
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12:08 |
: For example, as a counterargument though I didn’t *know* Lee, I’d imagine he wouldn’t want his death to hurt company momentum. I wouldn’t want FanGraphs to temporarily retire in-season projections for 2021 if something happened to me!
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12:08 |
: dunno what the right answer is
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12:08 |
: why do you keep on using my Netflix account after I asked you to stop?
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12:08 |
: So that all your recommendations are Young Sheldon.
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12:08 |
: ZIPs has Kyle Hendricks and Kwang Hyun Kim with same expected WAR in 2021… that just doesn’t pass the smell test for me. Kim is older, has far less MLB experience, had multiple injuries in 2020, pitched less innings in 2020, etc. yet they are projected to be worth the same? I don’t get it.
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12:09 |
: Less MLB experience affects the error bars not the projection itself.
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12:09 |
: And there are some bad indicators with Hendricks as well
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12:12 |
: A *dip* in K rate as league increases for example, isn’t a great sign. And ZiPS sees upside in Kim’s K rate — his hit from KBO was a bigger drop than you’d expect
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12:12 |
: In any case, I don’t change projections, period.
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12:12 |
: The Blake Treinen signing isn’t the biggest deal in the world, and he’s a good pitcher, but it definitely feels a little bit weird, right? Given the RP market, Brad Hand clearing waivers, Archie Bradley’s non-tender, etc., I’m confused why the Dodgers made this move.
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12:12 |
: Well, their competition has been more aggressive since Hand was on waivers
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12:12 |
: Clearly MLB’s “hot” stove has been affected by climate change…
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12:12 |
: How many (and which) Rays prospects do you expect to see in the majors in 2021?
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12:12 |
: Too early to say without knowing twhat the season looks like
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12:12 |
: Dan, can you use ZIPS to predict two-strike performance? Juan Soto’s approach with two strikes is dramatically different from his approach with zero or one strikes. I’m thinking about how to answer the question “should he use the two-strike approach in more counts, jettison it altogether, or keep doing what he’s doing?” I realize the answer is probably not to mess with what is already so good. But I think it’s an interesting question, and you can’t just look at Soto’s two-strike performance. As a starting point, I think you need to compare his actual two-strike performance with what you would expect him to do with two-strikes based on a host of inputs (ergo, ZIPS). What do you think?
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12:13 |
: ZiPS isn’t really set up for this exactly
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12:13 |
: Is this the year that ZiPS decides to initiate the AI takeover?
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12:13 |
: I’m not smart enough
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12:14 |
: Dan! just wanted to say “Hi” since I haven’t been in one of your chats in a while.
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12:14 |
: Hi!
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12:14 |
: Will the White Sox sign a lefthanded hitter to help out in the DH mix & if so, who is your best guess?
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12:14 |
: Because of Eaton, I don’t expect a significant signing.
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12:15 |
: I expect it to be used to rest Jimenez/Abreu and maybe Vaughn later and th at’s hard to bring in a big bat there
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12:15 |
: Personally, I believe that if Seattle truly believes Evan White is their future at 1B, they should start him in Tacoma this year and give him all the time he needs to fix his swing, approach, and find his confidence and promote him only when he really looks ready. But how likely is that to happen given the Gold Glove and their belief that he makes good decisions at the plate and was simply unlucky much of the time?
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12:16 |
: ZiPS for one has absolutely hated White’s stats, so you wouldn’t get an objection from the computer
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12:17 |
: I personally would, but I expect the Mariners to keep him in the majors unless he really can’t work out his issues
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12:18 |
: Not sure that the gold glove creates that much pressure
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12:18 |
: Nobody was burning to play Yolmer Sanchez in 2020
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12:18 |
: Who are your favorite players to watch live, regardless of “stats”? Current? All time?
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12:18 |
: All time RICKEY
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12:19 |
: Hader’s fun to watch
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12:19 |
: It’s fun to watch Gallo try to break the air
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12:19 |
: an d MOOKIE
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12:20 |
: If a player goes undrafted in the amateur draft, then plays and excels in an independent league, is this player essentially a free agent who can sign with any team?
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12:20 |
: Once they’re no longer and amateur and they go undrafted, they’re free agents as far as I know
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12:20 |
: kyle lewis, jarred kelenic, taylor trammell, julio rodgieuz, mitch haniger. who is the starting outfield to start 2022 for the M’s?
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12:20 |
: I don’t imagine Kelenic *starts* 2021 on the team or Rodriguez gets more than a cup of coffee at most.
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12:21 |
: I wouldn’t be surprised to see trammell/lewis/haniger
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12:21 |
: though that depends on haniger’s health
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12:21 |
: Will ZiPS include wRC+ in the pre-season projections? I’m going to keep asking this every year, sorry 🙂
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12:21 |
: Doesn’ FG usually calculate it when it’s live? I forget right now
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12:21 |
: How long did it take you to develop ZiPS from the first time you thought about it until it’s launch? Which part(s) were most time consuming?
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12:21 |
: How to start! I’t sa big undertraking
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12:21 |
: In your projections next year, it would be awesome if you provided a distribution rather than just the mean estimate. For example, 10%, 25%, 75%, and 90% projections would be awesome so we can get a better idea of upside and downside.
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12:22 |
: Actually doing that for hitters this year
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12:22 |
: I still don’t have the calibration for pitchers as tight as I want
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12:22 |
: The Nationals’ farm system looks pretty empty, and their pitching core is aging. Do you think they can trade/buy their way out of this coming problem, or do you think they’re going to face a rough couple of years soon?
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12:22 |
: I think there will be a down period
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12:22 |
: When will this year’s projections be available? Particularly interested in Kershaw. His 2021 outlook has gotta be better than a year ago. Thank you.
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12:22 |
: For individual players, they’re mostly available in the team by team rundowns!
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12:22 |
: Why don’t teams trying to make upside plays (say players coming off injuries or down years) sign them to deals with a team option at the end? I come from following the NBA, so I don’t know the MLB CBA too well, but I wish the Giants would sign some of these guys to 1+1s.
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12:23 |
: Well, teams *do* do this
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12:23 |
: see Garrett Richards
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12:23 |
: oh wait
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12:23 |
: that wasn’t an option
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12:23 |
: but it IS done
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12:23 |
: I saw the Cubs got a positive article on MLB.com yesterday. Does this mean they have dropped enough payroll to lift the embargo finally?
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12:23 |
: OIuch!
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12:24 |
: Anyway, there’s nothing in the CBA that prevents these contracts
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12:24 |
: Did the lack of minor league play in 2020 serve to show how important the minors are or did it do the opposite, provide evidence that player development doesn’t need minors? Or was the year just too weird for any of that?
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12:24 |
: I don’t think we can draw any conclusions because we don’t know the consequences.
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12:25 |
: The Pirates are apparently going to scout Kluber. Would awful teams be better off just being awful to get the draft advantages, or should they try to find/spend on reclamation projects like Kluber to deal later?
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12:25 |
: I think you can do both
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12:25 |
: The Pirates and Rangers will not need much assistance to be awful
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12:25 |
: under any circumstances
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12:26 |
: After yesterday’s display of national level mental illness, do you see Americans spending all day assessing the Value of athletes as part of a huge problem? It’s all in the same bucket to me!
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12:26 |
: I’m not sure what this question is asking
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12:26 |
: When you see a prospect who is a position player but began the minors as a pitcher (or vice versa), are you more excited about them because they’re likely pretty athletic, or less excited about them because it means they’re less specialized?
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12:26 |
: I like players who are “different” in some way
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12:26 |
: Whither Vladito? Is there a leap to come?
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12:26 |
: I think he’ll be more or less fine
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12:26 |
: Do you know where I can find stats on how many bases runners advance on hits like singles and doubles?
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12:26 |
: I think you have to break it down from the raw data yourself
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12:26 |
: Doesn’t a weird year like 2020 create a prediction problem for ZIPS?
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12:27 |
: Yup
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12:27 |
: If White busts after daring to sign a contract, how will that impact future 1B? Keep in mind they’ve already got Singleton’s too…Casas is going to be an insane bargain, isn’t he?
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12:28 |
: I don’t think much changes. The incentive to get a player on a team-friendly deal isn’t going to change
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12:28 |
: Have you played any new video games lately? I just beat the Demon’s Souls remake and it was very good.
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12:29 |
: Cyberpunk, but haven’t played much that’s NEW lately
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12:29 |
: Kinda been playing through the Trails games because Cold Steel IV will get a PC English release at some point this year and I have a Japanese copy of Hajimari no Kiseki to play through
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12:29 |
: What is your favorite single player-year projected by ZIPS, and why?
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12:30 |
: Trout rookie year!
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12:30 |
: Because everything though it was off high
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12:30 |
: and his long-term projection too high
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12:30 |
: and Trout absolutely destroyed his projection in the OTHER direction
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12:31 |
: bah, that doesn’t direclty post
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12:32 |
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12:32 |
: Haha 65. He’s already at 76!
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12:32 |
: ZiPS always saw Trout as better than harper
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12:33 |
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12:34 |
: These were with the model as of late 2011, not reprojected today
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12:34 |
: I miss the days of the Yankees buying everybody… they really need more pitching
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12:34 |
: They do!
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12:35 |
: Do you expect Drew Rasmussen to work as a starter this year?
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12:35 |
: It depends on where they have him
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12:35 |
Hi Dan! With the Dodgers resigning Treinen, it looks like the Dodgers are actually not opposed to exceeding the luxury tax threshold of 210 million. They obviously need a RH bat for the infield and even resigning Turner to a team friendly deal puts them over. Do you think they probably don’t care as much as some people think because of all the money coming off the books next year?
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12:35 |
: I think the Padres being so aggressive ought to (and likely will) change the team’s risk/benefit analysis
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12:36 |
: Following up: I don’t think FG shows wRC+ for ZiPS… only for Steamer for some reason. I’ve just been looking for a second source, but can’t find it! Thanks Dan!
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12:36 |
: I honestly just don’t remember! lol
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12:36 |
: Fun game to add some levity to the news cycle: mishear every reference to “Pence” as “Pants”
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12:36 |
: Passan just said that Lindor to the Mets is possibly in the works. NL East faves if that happens?
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12:37 |
: Not sure about favorites, but it makes them mightly interesting
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12:37 |
: Robert Stephenson didn’t get a zips projection because he got traded during your list-making endeavor. Will there be an update with guys you may have missed? Also, Ryan Weathers didn’t get a projection.
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12:37 |
: Everyone will be in the database in the near future!
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12:38 |
: Just a heads-up, I have some emergency writing to do, so we’re only going to 12:45 today.
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12:39 |
: Do you manually account for injuries somehow? If a player has a few really good seasons and then one bad one due to injuries, are you somehow putting less weight on that bad season than you normally would?
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12:39 |
: ZiPS does have injury data which it uses
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12:39 |
: There are *no* manual changes in ZiPS projections as a matter of design philosophy.
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12:39 |
: Even if I *knew* it would make the projections better I would not.
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12:40 |
: The only manual part is if I tell ZiPS to change position or team or starter/reliever role.
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12:40 |
: In that case, ZiPS is merely translating it to new context for algorithms.
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12:40 |
: It goes back to Hendricks vs. Kim earlier.
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12:40 |
: I personally would prefer Hendricks over Kim.
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12:40 |
: But my personal feelings have *zero* input. It’s what the model captures.
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12:40 |
: Sounds like the trade may be Lindor and Carrasco together…
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12:40 |
: the healing balm this nation needs is a soundcloud of Dan singing laverne and shirley
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12:41 |
: For enxt week!
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12:41 |
: But you may need to remind me as I’m stupid.
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12:41 |
: Do you believe the Kyle Lewis Zips projections for 2021? I know the system doesn’t factor in something like the drawn out recovery from his gruesome injury – he just seems like the type of player that’ll improve.
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12:41 |
: Lewis is a tough one. I talked about it in the M’s projecitons.
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12:42 |
: (Though I didn’t talk about the knee)
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12:42 |
: But the fact remains that the body of work prior to the majors just wasn’t there, so a projection system isn’t really going to leap on that
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12:43 |
: Like 2019. That wasn’t a minor league line that suggests good MLB performance imminently
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12:43 |
: Now, ZiPS projection for Lewis *did* go up quite a lot
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12:45 |
: OK guys, have to cut this short as I have a trade to write about.
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12:46 |
: Thanks for coming everyone!
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12:46 |
: It would still be great to see a ZIPs time warp of either Bonds or Clemens from when they started to age normally the first time and before it appears they start to aggressively use PEDs.
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12:47 |
: Won’t see this from me as I’ve been unable to find any evidence of unusual projection overachievements for players busted for PEDs as a group, at any point in their careers before or any underprojection afterwards. I’ve been trying to find this for a decade now.
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.