Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/9/25

Dan Szymborski: Let’s start the madness. I mean chat.

Egg Man: New team today ? Still 10 to go.

Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays tomorrow. I was travelling back through snow and then had to dig out my driveway and my mom’s driveway. Measured nine inches on my back lawn.

David Stearns: Mets sign Alonso, Winker, Scott and Maton are they the nl east favorites?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’d be close

Dan Szymborski: But on the no side

wheelhouse: what’s your read on ke’bryan hayes at this point? would the pirates move him? is there still the upside there that teams would be interested?

Dan Szymborski: Assuming the back problems don’t continue to be an issue — not a given — I think he’ll be an averageish 3B, above-average defensively + middling offense

Dan Szymborski: I’ve always liked Hayes as a player, but people got WAY too excited about his crazy month as a rookie

Barfs: of the two SDP FA’s (Kim, Profar), who should the Braves sign?

Dan Szymborski: While these answers change depending on price, I’d rather have Kim

Frosty: My apologies if you’ve already shared this, but do you have 2025 projections for Sasaki?

Dan Szymborski: Hoarding that for when he signs!

Ben VV: What are some top players to keep eye on during spring that could be breakout players.

Dan Szymborski: Similarly, I do pieces on this in the spring!

Pope Formosus: What are ZiPs 1st and 99th percentile wins totals for the White Sox this year?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do the FULL suite until we get closer to the season. I guarantee they’ll both be brutal though

Ben VV: What will Brewers do at 3B this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll just slap in whatever unsigned veteran in three weeks will take a cheap one year deal

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, a Yoan Moncada pillow deal?

Dan Szymborski: (I have no specific information they have even talked)

Tacoby Bellsbury: What remaining free agent, non-Roki Sasaki division, do you think will be the best bargain for his new team next season?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Pivetta? Flaherty?

Slew: My favorite team hasn’t had its ZiPS published yet. Why do you hate them? [Insert various pissing and moaning]

Dan Szymborski: It’s something you did. Reflect on your sins and repent or your team will be even later next year.

John: Do you think Alonso gets more than $100 million?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think he gets a Bellinger/Chapman-like deal from last winter

Curious fan: Kumar rocker has a pretty nifty steamer projection for this upcoming season. Do you think he makes the rotation on opening day? What are your expectations for him this season?

Dan Szymborski: I think Rangers will be cautious, but he’ll get into the rotation at some point

Harry: Which team do you think will exceed their ZIPS projections the most, and which team is most likely to fall short of theirs?

Dan Szymborski: Ask me in March!

Guest: Jose Ramirez had another fantastic year last year, but is certainly showing some signs of aging. Generally speaking, what are your expectations for him in the 4 years remaining on his contract?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine; he’s got a long way to fall

Dan Szymborski: There’s a difference between me being in worse shape next year and The Rock being in worse shape next year

Idiotic Failson: Did the Yankees ‘replace’ the value of Juan Soto in aggregate? And – am I correct in assuming that because of the LT a guy like Bregman at 110% of his contract actually doesn’t provide as much value as a much lower end signing like Polanco?

Dan Szymborski: Replacing in aggregate is always a risky thing

Dan Szymborski: err

Dan Szymborski: a messy thing

Dan Szymborski: Because while there’s a downside of not putting all your eggs in one basket, spreading out a bunch of wins across multiple positions has much lower upside

Dan Szymborski: and I’m not sure the Yankees were weak enough in those spots for it to be the most efficient things to do

Dan Szymborski: At some point, it’s better to have one 2025 Toyota Camry than three 2008 Toyota Camrys.

Dan Szymborski:

Harry: Who’s a dark horse MVP candidate that nobody’s really high on?

Dan Szymborski: Kinda hard to have a true dark horse MVP candidate; anyone with a REAL chance people will at least like

Dan Szymborski: Though I WILL note that of the 20ish teams I’ve done so far, James Wood ranks 40th among position players in 95th percentile WAR

Dan Szymborski: If ou want to go a little farther out there, Ezequiel Tovar

Lew Ford, Mustang: I’m intrigued by the idea of teams like the Twins who are adequate everywhere and have depth but lack a big star. How does this get factored into ZIPS vis a vis variance? Feels like their outcomes will be more evenly distributed but that the highs are less high? Does that sound accurate?

Dan Szymborski: That kind of thing SHOULD be captured the way I project roster composition

Dan Szymborski: I talk about it in the previews most years. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-cringe-…

Nicole: What’s the worst team you could make a favorite to make the playoffs by only signing current free agents?

Dan Szymborski: Royals?

John B: In your zWAR estimates it’s common to see AAA pitchers who would generate ~2 War or more if they played a full season.  But many of these pitchers don’t do well when given the chance.  ZWAR doesn’t seem to be able to accurately predict which guys will actually break through

Dan Szymborski: What does a full season mean in 2025? The percentile projections calibrate well – the problem is accuracy far more than bias

Snuffy Stirnweiss: In the Juan Soto ZiPS projection article on Dec 8, you mentioned that ZiPS moved to using a “stepwise function”. Can you expand on why that change was made as well as how that might affect certain projections?

Dan Szymborski: That’s for salaries

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects the first win as being worth a lot less than subsequent wins

Dan Szymborski: Though you can make it linear again by drastically changing where replacement level is, as Tango has noted

Jeff in Jersey: I was heartened by the ZIPS forecast for the Mets, and of course it’s still amazing to have Juan Soto on your team. But I just can’t feel great about this offseason without adding some established relievers and getting certainty on the infield corners (is Vientos really a sure thing, enough to give him 1st, and are we certain Baty/Mauricio can handle 3rd?). Tell me if I’m a spoiled fan or not.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you’re spoiled, it’ snot like the Mets project to win 96 games on average or anything

Snuffy Stirnweiss: As a follow up, delighted to see that you have brought back the threat to karate chop anyone guilty of adding up WAR totals to produce a projected team WAR/record. I read that sentence from you in an article about a decade ago, glad to see I wasn’t the only one who remembered it.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never removed that line because I want to ethically disclose that gratuitous violence is a possibility

War2d2: Hey Dan, Happy New Year! I’m always reticent to think about signing relievers to anything longer than a 1-year deal. That said, do you think whatever 3-5 year thing Tanner Scott eventually winds up with will be a boondoggle? Or do you think the signer will get more value out of the life of the contract than, say, signing Kenley Jansen for one year this year and replacing him with a similar reliever every year for the next 3-5 years? Define “value” however you want, bulk WAR or $$/WAR, whatever.

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I don’t think Scott is going to get a CRAZY deal. But maybe I’m wrong

Harry: The Boston Red Sox made some splashes to their pitching staff, have numerous ROTY candidates, and have a solid lineup (with potentially more to be added). What’s Boston’s ceiling/floor for 2025 in your eyes (record wise)?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re a real second tier playoff contender, probably ought to finish better than their .500 treading results

Dan Szymborski: I’d be surprised if they crushed out a 100-win season though

Sonny: I thought for sure Cincy would be a great landing spot for a post-hype young(ish) hitter to add upside to their lineup. I had Tork or Vaughn in mind as better fits than Lux, but is that acquisition somewhat encouraging or just cheaper than the two corner bats mentioned?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say with ownership. I like Lux, but Santander would be a great fit in Cincy, though they shoudln’t be mutually exclusive additions

comish4lif: When the Dodgers cleared a spot on the 40 man by trading Lux, could they (can they) resolve the Dalton Rushing DFA by pulling him back?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Dan Szymborski: I know they DFA’ed Cartaya

Dan Szymborski: but they traded him to Twins during this chat

Insert Witty Name Here: I measured nine inches on your moms back lawn.

Nicole: My brother insisted that the Mets are the third best team in their division. Why is he wrong?

Dan Szymborski: He might not be, but it’s not OBVIOUS

Dan Szymborski: Like Mac might be the third-best male actor on It’s Always Sunny, but that’s still really good

Dan Szymborski: Or at least the third-best male character?

Dan Szymborski: Or really, maybe fourth?

SPARP: How has the way you project relievers turning into starters evolved with it occurring more frequently in 2024?

Dan Szymborski: I have more data in the system!

BC26: What Yankees 3B option does ZiPS hate the least?

Dan Szymborski: I guess I can’t just say Bregman?

Dan Szymborski: Then Cabrera I think

Barry M.: I think Omar Vizquel should be a hall of famer (ignoring the allegations.) He is a better hitter than Ozzie Smith which is his most comparable player. He has 2800+ career hits and over 10 gold gloves.

Dan Szymborski: Meh. First, I don’t think he’s a better hitter than Ozzie Smith

Dan Szymborski: Second, he wasn’t an utterly dominating defensive player after Seattle

Dan Szymborski: Some of those gold gloves were rep

Dan Szymborski: By old ZR, which we we have from 1987, Ozzie *averaged* +13 runs at short over the last decade of his career

Dan Szymborski: And Sherri Nichols DR work had him at the same

Dan Szymborski: which makes the very aggressive Total Zone numbers when he was younger not look like a stretch

Dan Szymborski: While 2877 hits sounds great, he’s basically a 2500 hit hitter who stuck around as a bad player for another 300 hits

Dan Szymborski: And yes, 90 wrC+ vs. 83 and more than 200 more net stolen bases in a career are significant edges

Your Name: Are the yankees better this year than last year? Or is losing Soto too much to overcome

Dan Szymborski: Probably not better.

Somebody: Please give your cats some pets for us. They’re good kitties.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not giving Justinian any pets, he pushed the tin of blood orange shortbread cookies off the counter and several broke

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Has anyone ever had a better ZIPS projection than Soto this off-season?

Dan Szymborski: Well, long term sure! Though not a bigger contract projection

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t project everyone hitting free agency every year

Dan Szymborski: Trout had a better projection at same age

Anon21: Please validate my frustration at the Braves for being very inactive in acquiring talent so far this offseason. I hate that front offices other than maybe the Dodgers’ or Mets’ seem to view their goal as building a team that will win 92 games!!

Dan Szymborski: It’s the playoff system. Hate the game

RAH: What to expect with Marcus Semien? Is he due a rebound in 2025, or does age color 2024 performance more predictive moving forward? I understand that many underlying numbers weren’t that different from 2023 to 2024, but his profile also seems like it walks a tight rope. Will he start falling off like Arenado? (To counter that, Semien has been much healthier)

Dan Szymborski: SOME rebound, but time is a drag

Ben: Hey Dan, thanks for all you do. What does ZiPS think Justin Verlander has left for 2025? What contract would ZiPS have suggested?

Guest: What does Tyler O’Neill’s sim look like with the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I have zips batting open first

Dan Szymborski: oh my, ZiPS likes O’Neill a lot more than Steamer

Dan Szymborski: I hadn’t really looked at him specifically before now

Dan Szymborski: 250/333/481, 131 OPS+, 2.6 WAR in like 430 PA

Dan Szymborski: maybe THAT is the best deal of the winter? lol

John B: Would love to see FG create a baseball trade values like model.  This kind of content drives a lot of readership imo

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly something I’ve thought of doing.

Dan Szymborski: The thing I’ve been currently working on, which you may have noticed during the playoffs, is a live pitcher vs. batter projection live tool

Idiotic Failson: You already published my team’s ZIPS. Now I have nothing to look forward to. Why do you hate me?

Dan Szymborski: Your failings, also.

Dan Szymborski: But don’t feel bad, I’m the loser kid too

Dan Szymborski: It was my sister for a long time, but she got her graduate degrees and helps terminally ill oncology patients while raising a five-year-old and a three year-old, while *I* get mad at baseball things and do math to sports

Talfred: Do you expect Arraez’s offensive profile to become more well-rounded, or is he forever going to be a one-trick pony?

Dan Szymborski: I think he is what he is

TBone: what happens if the MLB just dead ball the ball in april, and then all these numbers and your hard work will be off?

Lowetide: Also, Toyota’s last a long time.

Dan Szymborski: That’s what OPS+/wRC+ are for!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but if you just need a working car, one new one is better than three identical old ones

War2d2: I think the danger you wind up with in going the “aggregate” route is what the Giants dealt with the last four-ish years or so—you’re good enough at multiple positions, and great at exactly none of them. Granted, those Giants teams were probably one “Arson” Judge away from the playoffs, and the Yankees do have that over them…

Capt. Cook: For as much as ZiPS likes the Cubs, I’m not really seeing big Dansby Swanson rebound numbers in there. What is likely in store for his 2025?

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re being very greedy

Dan Szymborski: He just had a 4.3 WAR season

mmddyyyy: Are there any good resources to figure out how a player pronounces their name?

Dan Szymborski: Various media guides float around, plus BR

April: Since we’re asking questions you’re deferring for a few months, how much money will you need to pay or get back from the IRS on your taxes?

Dan Szymborski: I typically owe a bit

Dan Szymborski: I never have my salary withholding configured well enough to cover non-salaried compensation, and am usually off by a few hundred or so

Dan Szymborski: but not enough that I have to file quarterly

Josh: With his positional uncertainty, how does Lux fit into your Reds ZIPS projection?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think him or McLain will be 3b

JC: Nolan Ryan pitched 332 innings of sub 3 ERA and FIP in 1974 but is only credited with 6.3 WAR. What gives?

Dan Szymborski: the league had a 3.63 FIP in 1974

Mike M.: When does ZipsGPT come out? I have a lot of questions I’d like to ask it. About Sasaki projections, love, and regrets.

I am the Apple: Dan, no catcher made the top 20 in your projected career WAR list. Which catcher came the closest?

Dan Szymborski: Adley Rutschman then William Contreras

Dan Szymborski: Or Wiliam Contreras since his parents still owe the universe an l

Cartaya: What happened to Diego Cartaya to make him fall so far?

Dan Szymborski: If you map that out, it’s called Cartayography

Dan Szymborski: His bat scertainly became a lot less exciting

Koztradamus: What % likelihood do you give S. Marte to have another very good/great season this year?  (I might trade for him.). Hopefully no power outage like years ago.

Dan Szymborski: Pretty low. Dude’s 36

Ben: Those Vizquel allegations are pretty terrible and shouldn’t be ignored. That stuff from when he was a coach alone should keep him out. Especially with the precedent of steroid users not getting in based on the “character clause.” (Also I agree that he just wasn’t good enough.)

Dan Szymborski: The allegations are horrific of course

Dan Szymborski: But I strongly feel that the intent was *baseball* character, not societal character. If I thought Vizquel were a better player, I’d put an industrial strength clothespin on my nose and vote for him. I would have voted for Schilling as well.

Dan Szymborski: No shade whatsoever cast on those who feel differently with their personal line.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a No on Vizquel next year, and I’m a there’s no suspended PED user on the ballot who is borderline for me

JC: What MLB player is Butters in South Park?

JC: I just want to talk about South Park, Dan

Dan Szymborski: wait, did I make a reference somewhere?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t say who is Butter though

Phil: As someone who saw Smith play in person at Shea Stadium quite a few times, “comparable to Smith” is just not a thing. BR’s 42 dWAR does not take me aback at all.

War2d2: I was always an Ozzie Smith denier, 100% because I am a Cubs fan. But then about 10 years ago a friend gifted me a box set of famous Cubs games DVDs, and I watched the “Ryne Sandberg Game” in its entirety. There were only two players on the field that day that looked like modern players, that looked like they would make it in today’s game: Sandberg and Ozzie. He made at least three throwaway plays that maybe four or five SS today would make, and he made it look easy. I doubt he’d hit enough against modern pitching, but the glove was definitely for real.

Ben: Jeez, Ozzie Smith is 70 years old Father time: still undefeated.

Guest: Re: Pet for Justinian – I read that as you were going to get a dog or cat for Justinian to have as their own pet in the same way Justinian is your pet.

comish4lif: My Cartaya question was more of a process question – and I did not know that the Twins would acquire Cartaya after I sent the question – but can teams pull back a player from DFA limbo if they clear a spot on the 40 man?

Dan Szymborski: Unless I’m forgetting something, no

my name: do you pronounce it “data” or “data”?

Dan Szymborski: data

JC: Let’s do the math on this: if I drive one 08 Toyota for years until there’s an issue then move on to another and then another, couldn’t that outlast a 25 Toyota?

Dan Szymborski: YOu have to consider storage

Dan Szymborski: Are you REALLY going to keep a third pristine used 17 year-old car to use in 20 years?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s not an NSX or something

JC: Re Toyota: Garage size = 40 man roster

JC: The data “is” or the date “are”?

Dan Szymborski: data are, but I slip up sometimes

Dan Szymborski: on that note, I have to go and finish my Jays ZiPS post

JC: Wrong. It’s one data “set” so it’s data “is”

Pat: The new car also probably has a bunch of cooler features- bluetooth, Apple/Android car, heated/cooled seats, heated steering wheel (best invention ever!), big touchscreen, etc. Also, assuredly much safer with all new safety features