Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/10/16

Dan Szymborski: We have started the chat. That goldbricker layabout Cistulli didn’t start up the chat until a few minutes ago, so a smaller queue than usual at the start.

Rob: Most likely scenario: Sale & Quintana are traded, only Sale is traded, only Quintana is traded or neither is traded?

Dan Szymborski: Most likely scenario is that the White Sox claim to be interested, but when they’re not offered entire farm systems, they lose the motivation and continue the yearly quest to 83 wins.

Springer am Rand: I’ve always pronounced your name “Shimborskee”. Is there a better pronunciation?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly accurate in Polish (but the first syllable a little more horrific, it sounds like shim if someone awkwardly tried to throw an f and a j in there for some reason).

Dan Szymborski: I’ve always said zim-BORE-skee. As did my dad. Mom and my sister always say sim-BORE-skee.

CarrotJuice: If I have only one regret, it is watching last night’s presidential debate instead of watching the Blue Jays/Rangers game.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know who’s running because of spent weeks convincing myself that I dreamt up the current election.

CamdenWarehouse: Manny, Britton, and Tillman are all projected for 8 figure arb salaries. Is it time to trade Britton?

Dan Szymborski: I would trade him this offseason. I do not expect the Orioles to.

JT: Matt Bush has the cleanest and most effortless delivery of a 100mph fastball I can think of

Dan Szymborski: Fewer innings in his arm! Teams should have their top pitching prospects go to jail for a while.

Bork: HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Dan Szymborski: TOO SOON

Erik: Will Bumgarner-Arrieta compete with Bumgarner-Syndergaard and Cueto-Lester for best pitchers’ duel of the playoffs so far? Or do you expect a run before the 8th inning?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say no, simply because it seems we’ve been way more fortunate than usual at having the paper pitching duels turn out. That’s why kershaw-scherzer was disappointing, I’m sure!

Mike: If I’m Joe Maddon tonight, do I load up on righties in the lineup and run Soler out there in left to maximize offense against Bumgarner or go all in on run prevention with a lighter hitting Almora/Heyward outfield? I guess same goes for the infield: find some way to get Baez in there while keeping Zobrist’s bat?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go all in on run prevention without having the lead.

Dan Szymborski: (in the game, obviously, Cubs lead the series of course)

JP: Are the Braves going to screw up their manager hire?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe, maybe not. I’m growing more concerned that the Braves end up aborting their rebuild prematurely.

Dan Szymborski: The talk about how close the feel they are to being relevant — they’re saying similar things inside baseball circles — makes me wonder if they short-circuit the whole thing.

Phil D.: What does ZIPS think of Buchholz and Tomlin? 90ish ERA+ guys? Thank you.

Dan Szymborski: Cheating to ask about 2017!

Erik: With the way the Jays have been playing, would you favor them over the Sox and Indians?

Dan Szymborski: I’d favor the Jays over the Indians but still a mild underdog against the Red Sox

Dan Szymborski: But I’d say the same if they had a bad three games (theoretically, if they had a bad three games they’d be watching at home)

Matt: Hi Dan. Sorry I’m late. I missed you.

Dan Szymborski: That sounds like a lie.

Hannah Hochevar: Hi. Having been forced to think about the O’s off-season earlier than hoped, are there any moves/targets you’d recommend for them? I need to start hoping for stuff.

Dan Szymborski: I’d trade Britton. And absolutely do not sign Trumbo.

Dan Szymborski: I hope they consider the outfield defense situation more than they did last spring.

Dan Szymborski: I’d love starting pitcher help, but I can’t see hwo they get it. The free agent market su cks and they don’t have the prospects these days to acquire a pitcher that doesn’t.

Dan Szymborski: In the end, the offense wasn’t good enough — for all the hype the offense finished 7th in the AL in runs with an OPS+ of 99 — to justify stretching too many guys defensively.

Dan Szymborski: The OF turned out something like 25th among OFs in fWAR.

Matt: Which starting pitcher is more likely to HR off the other – BumBum or Jakey-Jake?

Dan Szymborski: Bumgarner, I think

Hammerleg: How far could have expected Javy Baez’s HR in game 1 to do if there wasn’t that wall of wind? Statcast says it had an exit velo of 107.4, which is properly crushed, and a launch angle of 36. Is there a way to look at other HR’s hit with similar velo and angle to get an idea of how far those type of balls usually go?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell, but pretty damn far. The wind was coming in from the NNW most of that game, IIRC, and pretty strongly too.

CamdenWarehouse: Do you have a HOF vote? Will you?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t been in the BBWAA long enough. Need 10 years for the vote.

Dan Szymborski: The majority of members do not have a BBWAA – the median year of joining for a BBWAA member now is 2007.

Dan Szymborski: And despite the picture of a ton of ancient BBWAA members, there are only 37 pre-1980 members now.

Minty: What do you, or ZIPS, think of Moncada in 2017?

Dan Szymborski: More cheating!

Matt: Do you believeland in Cleve?

Dan Szymborski: I appreciate puns.

Dan Szymborski: People were mad at Hoynes, but not having Carrasco and Salazar *is* a fairly serious thing.

Erik: Do you think there’s any hope of MLB changing the replay rule with regards to players coming off the bag for a fraction of a second on tag plays? Do you think the MLB wants to change the rule?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball spins a giant wheel to determine rule changes, so it’s possible.

CamdenWarehouse: It’s official. Nick Markakis named Braves manager: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/braves-deciding-on-three-managerial-candidates.html

Dan Szymborski: Heh

Dan Szymborski: I should note there’s still a moratorium on Markakis questions because I know you guys are trying to troll me.

Minty: Technically Baez was out, but only baseball can screw up the spirit of the rule when most say that he still should’ve been safe.

JT: I know the giants bench sucks and he did technically reach base but can we stop using madbum as a pinch hitter/DH? Good hitting pitcher or not this is still a guy with a career 49 wRC+ and 14 home runs

Dan Szymborski: I agree.

Matt: You should rename the next iteration of ZiPS. I’m thinking BuTTONS. It’s more chic.

Erik: In whose interest is it to keep the divisional round only 5 games? Are the players that opposed to lengthening the season by a game or two?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball has this weird obsession with not letting a game go into November, like that would be Threat Level: Midnight

Dan Szymborski: The majority of major league cities have a higher average temperature on November 1st than on April 5th.

Sonny: Lots of talk about Red Sox inexperience costing them which glosses over how young this Cleveland team is

Dan Szymborski: It’s the usual bullshit ipso facto, ex post facto.

CamdenWarehouse: Any chance Jones moves out of CF next year? He’s no longer good (if he ever was).

Dan Szymborski: The orioles would need both a desire to do it and the ability to make major changes.

DN: Would you trade Reed or Familia this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Always depends on offer.

Sonny: Lost in Chapman review today, Buster Posey now hitting roughly .650 against Aroldis. Bananas

Fire Kevin Cash: Just read Dave’s great slide rule piece. Here’s what I don’t get about arguing to keep the status quo: sure it’s always been the rule, but no one ever got called out for not maintaining contact or doing a pop up slide before replay. Isn’t calling people out for this the new change, not letting it “slide”? I feel like we should be approaching for any rule discussions or “spirit of the game” arguments for this by treating the vertical extension as the norm and outs as the new idea, even if the rules disagree.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a rules guy. Either enforce the rules or change the rules.

Matt: This morning, due to the suggestion of someone else, I put more thought than 0 into signing Rich Hill. Obviously, he holds the risk of “guy who was never successful at pitching or even just being on the mound”, but he also changed his approach, and has almost no mileage on his arm. This something like 3/$38M is reasonable? Maybe slightly lower with more in IP-based incentives?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get more than that.

Dan Szymborski: There’s too much money chasing very few good pitchers this winter.

CardsFan12: I don’t understand the hatred for the reviews of people coming off the base and being called out. The people who want robot umps want to give the umpires another judgement call. This has always been the rule we just didn’t have the technology to enforce it to this detail.

Sonny: Baltimore offseason: Stalk Brewers and beat them to whichever scrap heap guys they’re targeting

The Decedent Moose: Rumors abound that the Cardinals are going to extend Matheny to avoid a lame duck season. Still haven’t gotten word on my extension, what with having done an equal amount of work managing the bullpen.

Dan Szymborski: My position on Matheny’s bullpen management is well-described by a tweet I made about 6 months ago.

Dan Szymborski: “If I had to demonstrate to someone what Mike Matheny’s bullpen usage is like, I’d drop 500 spiders into a kindergarten class.”

Erik: What is the largest contract signed this winter and who is the recipient? (cespedes I would assume)

Dan Szymborski: I would assume that as well if he opts out. If he doesn’t, Bautista.

Trevor: So what are the odds that Buchholz gets absolutely shelled tonight? And how is it possible for them to be over 100%?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Cubs Fan: Do I start panicking if the Cubs lose tonight, tomorrow or no need for panic at all?

Dan Szymborski: Panicking doesn’t really solve much!

JT: Has carson been a BBWAA member longer than you? WIll he get a HoF vote before you? If so, how does that make you feel?

Dan Szymborski: He has. I was a little lax about asking – it’s apparently very likely I could’ve gotten in years before I did.

Dan Szymborski: I’m essentially in because Jeff Passan gave me a “stop being such a wuss” pep talk.

Dan Szymborski: As to my plans for Cystulli, I don’t want to give him time to counter those.

Bob: Happy Indigenous Peoples Day!

Dan Szymborski: I thought it was mental health day too?

Dan Szymborski: We need either more days of the year or fewer day-related celebrations.

Ian: Should the Braves avoid spending money on free agents?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Erik: How much better are MLB pitchers at hitting than a decent high school baseball player (good but not good enough to play in college or get drafted)? The fact that pitchers can even hit .100 despite being years away from practicing hitting regularly is quite impressive.

Dan Szymborski: There’s kind of a base. Anyone reasonably experienced with a baseball bat, between 20-40, and not riding around on a rascal can probably get at least an occasional hit with a bit of practice.

Dan Szymborski: Because lots of hits are identical.

Sonny: Bumgarner reviving Schilling’s HOF credentials, how long before Curt/Mussina get in?

Dan Szymborski: It’s absolutely absurd that they aren’t in now.

Enzo Amore: Familia’s postseason “problems” are just a combination of cherry-picking, bad luck and randomness right? He’s still a capable closer?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, yes.

Sean P: Dan, many in the baseball/sports media that I’m following on twitter have been offering their political opinions to the point where it is borderline unbearable. In the past, you’ve mentioned in this chat and on twitter that you personally are against sports media sharing political sentiment on twitter and don’t see the effectiveness of it. Have you ever considered writing a longer length rationale of your stance? Or is this a mess that you’d just prefer to stay out of?

Dan Szymborski: I’s a personal stance – I’m not really against *others* doing it, if that’s how they feel they want to communicate with their audience.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like Twitter politics – you can’t make subtle points in 140 characters.

Dan Szymborski: So twitter political discussions, even of very smart people, turns out to be some zinger of someone on the other side to get as many high-fives if they can.

Dan Szymborski: And it also is tangentially related to the other thing I don’t like about Twitter – the righteous ganging-up on people.

Dan Szymborski: Justine Sacco’s tweet was tasteless and poorly judged for the audience, but the fact that it had such an effect on her life — I shouldn’t even know her name — reflected fairly poorly on the Twitter world.

LudeBurger: “Aren’t you ZIPS? You’re just a computer program!” – twitter dumb dumbs

Bob: Seriously, just slide better, right? It’s not like we’re talking about Hrbek lifting Gant off of 1st, you’re failing to maintain contact due to your excessive speed.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, not doing the Lightning Round, so asking things in-line.

Matt: As someone who appreciates the power of unintended consequences, I’d love your opinion. The idea of being called out due to a momentary lifting off the bag in a slide is quite bothersome, but in what way is it possible to create a rule that would not endanger the entire concept of being out if you’re not on the bag when tagged?

Dan Szymborski: That’s the real issue. I don’t like judgment call rules unless the situation actually demands we have one.

Stay out of Medford Dave Cameron: Any surprise non-tenders out there?

Dan Szymborski: I keep telling myself that the Royals would non-tender Hosmer, he was actually pretty lousy for the year overall, but then I smack myself because there’s no way that can actually happen, si there?

Dan Szymborski: I could also see the Mets *maybe* non-tendering Duda

Dan Szymborski: We’re talking surprises here, after all.

Baloo: What would you consider Britton’s trade-value to be in terms of young Tiger SP? I imagine Fulmer would be too much and Boyd too little, but I don’t know that I’d be comfortable letting Norris go for a RP, which probably means it’s the closest to being fair. Thoughts? Seems like a potential match-up, need-wise.

Dan Szymborski: Would have to think about it, but given what Chapman and Miller ended up going for, I’d even try for more. Again, I don’t like talking about theoretical packages since willingness is almost as important as the players involved

Erik: Why was Baez awarded a single followed by an out at second on that play? Didn’t he reach second, then leave second, and then get tagged out, technically? Isn’t that a double?

Dan Szymborski: I’d call it a double and an out, but I’m not sure the exact rule that controls here

Sonny: i like the current 1-5-7-7 playoff format. come at me

Dan Szymborski: The 1 is fine with me.

Dan Szymborski: But the problem is 5. There’s something weird about the first round of a playoff structure being the most likely to eliminate the best team in the league.

Gload Will Explode: What would Eric Hosmer get if he was a free agent this year?

Dan Szymborski: There’s such a huge variation. I think he’d at least get more than he should.

Blake: Could the Braves give away Markakis and his salary if they get nothing in return? Would the savings help in the general scope, even looking after 2017?

Dan Szymborski: I think they could probably give him away at this point. Not sure if it’s enough to make a difference.

Frank: Ender, Albies, Newcomb, and Whalen for Chris Archer? Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure the Braves are willing to do that, simply because they don’t have a lot offense in-system.

Dan Szymborski: But I also didn’t thin kthe Braves would be willing to pay Matt Kemp to not be a DH so whateves

Fire Kevin Cash: Why don’t we bust players more for standing in the box ‘miring their not-homers? There’s no situation better served by standing around over a purposeful jog. I love bat flips and showing off but sometimes you misjudge a ball or the wind says no.

Dan Szymborski: The purpose of complaining about these kinds of behaviors is to ding players the commentator doesn’t like.

Gary: Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo- whats your take on these guys?

Dan Szymborski: I think Gsellman more interesting long-term than Lugo

Bork: Is there any world where the Jays don’t give Bautista a QO? I don’t get it.

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Frigging CUDDYER and KENNEDY got QOs and they acutally WORKED OUT for those guys.

RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Will the Twinkies win more games next year? Why or why not???

Dan Szymborski: Yeah. Better roster almost by definition and the plexiglass principle. Probably was a 70-win talent team or so that underperformed.

Tess of the D’Arnouds: Do the O’s have any realistic moves to improve significantly?

Dan Szymborski: I think their moves will have to be on the margins

Jordan: Before the Mets fans start with the “who hangs up first, Wheeler for XXX Great player/Prospect” questions can you please explain that Wheeler lacks that kind of value for the same reason Mets fans want to include him in every trade proposal, he’s injured and he has set backs AND his service clock is ticking while he’s rehabbing.

Dan Szymborski: Why wouldn’t you want to include Wheeler in every trade proposal? Fans always want to trade up. And if you can, that’s the way to go

Bork: EE is making a good case for biggest contract.

Dan Szymborski: I think like bautista, his age might scare enough on for it to come lower than a Cespedes

Hannah Hochevar: Can you believe we’re getting Tomlin vs. Bucholz in the post-season, even after a rain out?

Dan Szymborski: Watch it be a crazy pitcher’s duel then

aaa: SP most likely to finish 2nd in SP WAR in 2017?

Dan Szymborski: Scherzer?

Sonny: is the hazing that severe to get in?

Dan Szymborski: I was admittedly a wuss, I didn’t want to ask and then be turned down.

Chicago Weather: Average Nov 1 in Chicago – 56/41 Average Apr 5 in Chicago – 55/38

Dan: WESTWORLD!

Pinstripe Wizard: Why does Ron Washington keep getting interviewed for managerial positions? I always got the impression he was a pretty terrible manager that happened to manage a really talented team.

Dan Szymborski: Once you’re a manager, you get into these circles where you always get interviews.

Dan Szymborski: Washington didn’t strike me as terrible, just mediocre. Though I don’t see the point of a mediocre manager given there are only 30 of these jobs in baseball.

Matt: Today is the day to celebrate all things that aren’t specifically given their own days. It’s the 10th amendment of days.

Dan for Commissioner: Do you really think Bautista would get more than Encarnacion this off season? Would this down year not affect Joey’s value?

Dan Szymborski: No, you’re probably right. EE will get more than Bautista.

Dan Szymborski: I’m attaching *too* much money to sentiment and reputation.

Tess of the D’Arnouds: Should the Royals keep the band together for one final tour or start trading off pieces so the rebuild lasts only 5 years instead of 10 years?

Dan Szymborski: They should break it up if they’re really wanting to trim back payroll from this year.

Dan Szymborski: If that talk is bullshit, go for the one last score.

Keith: Would you trade the high value Ender Inciarte for more prospects and just roll with Mallex Smith in CF?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect I would.

August’s Baseball Dungeon: Is it me or is nearly every run scored this post season via a dinger?

Dan Szymborski: 120%. That’s why all this rain, it was causing a programming error and making the postseason unstable.

Jaime: Yankees sign Rich Hill? Chapman? Make a big trade for a starting pitcher? I have honestly no idea what they’re going to do this offseason and I sincerely hope it

Pinstripe Wizard: Schilling’s HOF case is damaged because a lot of folks in media just don’t like the guy because of the whole Pedro Gomez situation.

Dan Szymborski: I think if you’re voting based on personal like, you’re doing history a disservice.

Steven: Think my Red Sox might contact Coppy and get Matt Kemp to replace Ortiz? We need to maintain big power.

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Tess of the D’Arnouds: What does Rick Porcello’s 2017 look like?

Dan Szymborski: Starts on a Sunday, ends on a Sunday.

Dan Szymborski: Temperatures 0.1 C warmer

Dan Szymborski: A different president after a few weeks.

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be a year older.

Sonny: There have been lots of #1 regular season teams that don’t win the WS but I don’t remember as many of them being as complete as this Cubs team. They’ve demonstrated an ability to win just about every type of game they find themselves in; pitchers duel, bullpen game, high scoring, bad weather, etc

Dan Szymborski: It’s a very good team.

Greg: Regardless of Matt Kemp’s power hitting, he has zero business playing a position going forward, should Atlanta heavily look to move him to the AL where he can DH? They could undo this horrible contract they’ve taken on all over desperation to add power regardless if the player hurts the team more.

Dan Szymborski: They should. Kemp’s at least an average player playing DH.

Dan Szymborski: The problem is when NL teams keep picking him up.

Dan Szymborski: John Bell Hood played better defense than Kemp.

Tony: MadBum selected postseason starts: 6 IP/2 ER, 4.2 IP/3 ER, 4.1 IP/4 ER , 3.2 IP/7 ER, 7 IP/2 ER, 8 IP/3 ER………… ok ok in the other 7 starts he had 57.2 IP/1 ER but it is possible to hit him in a playoff game right

Dan Szymborski: There’s always selective memory in postseason performance

Dan Szymborski: A-Rod has a far better career playoff WPA in Jeter

Realistic Braves Fan: Fans need to realize our team is dreadful. The 2nd half surge was a total fluke. Keeping Snitker is a joke! Ender, Freeman, and Teheran should be shipped off for monster returns. Truly rebuild this train wreck! Please Dan, tell em how it is!

Dan Szymborski: I do and they get angry at me. That’s why the Braves finished second in my hate mail tally for 2016.

August’s Baseball Dungeon: Any ideas why the bar for pitchers getting into the Hall of Fame is so ridiculously high?

Dan Szymborski: Sloth.

Sonny: The slide is distracting from the real takeaway: Javy Baez is the future and the future is going to kick ass

Pinstripe Wizard: As a former baseball player with the blazing speed equivalent of a sloth, I see no reason they can’t stay on the base. Just run slower.

Tess of the D’Arnouds: Is the upside to the Terminator doomsday scenario that all umpire calls will be 100% correct?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: I should note that the question about the politics and Twitter is the only one such I will answer.

Dan: Will Saunders get a QO?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Sonny: Q: In a Jays-Cubs world series who wins the bat flip battle? A: we all do

Matt: Dan, I keep telling you that lightning is not round. It has no shape. It’s not tangible

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d call it intangible.

Dan Szymborski: And there have been water discharge experiments with ball lightning.

A cat: Referring to regular season only, it seems David Price pitched like the guy you expected in years 3-5 of his deal, a 2/3, rather than an ace. Still valuable but not one you would look forward to awarding a 6 year, $186 MM contract. Unless he improves his cutter or develops another pitch, the loss of velocity negates his command.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK. I’ll check after the season.

Tim: Braves fan here, trying to remain hopeful. I think we have got to go out and get a guy who will turn this organization around. And that man is Moncada. Would Swanson, Albies, and Allard be enough to get Boston to pull the trigger on future STAR Moncada?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little bit of an absurd price for Atlanta to pay.

Dan Szymborski: Well, a lot absurd.

Pennsy: If the Nats declined Gio’s option for next year what kind of payday do you think he would get?

Dan Szymborski: He’d get a decent payday. Again, the market sucks.

Dan Szymborski: Which is why the Nats will pick up the option. There’s nothing better in FA they can get for 2/24, I don’t think

Dan: Trumbo get a QO?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so

August’s Baseball Dungeon: How valuable would a player be if a he was an average defender and average hitter in a corner position, but stole 100 bases a year without getting caught?

Dan Szymborski: Given break even point, that’s about 30-35 runs, so a 5-6 WAR player

CardsFan12: What should the Cards do with Wacha and Rosenthal

Dan Szymborski: Pray

CamdenWarehouse: Do you have a prediction for the Arizona GM spot?

Dan Szymborski: A terrible GM or a good GM who gets saddled by a terrible ownership

Matt: Being non-tendered is the worst. Once, Wendy’s forgot to put my tenders in my bag, “”leaving me non-tendered. It was hurtful.

Moltar: Do the Mets load up this offseason or take a step back? Should they go all out for one or two last runs with this window? Upgrade at 1B, 3B and/or Catcher?

Dan Szymborski: I think they awkwardly beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.

Bork: KC should trade Hosmer to an old school GM

Dan Szymborski: AKA Arizona?

Bob: Do you golf for the aggravation or the alcohol?

Dan Szymborski: For golf cart driving tricks

Mike: I know it’s playoff baseball, but isn’t 3:55 way too long for the Nats and Dodgers to play an 8 and a half inning long, 5-2 baseball game? I know it wasn’t exactly well played and there were a ton of base runners, but sheesh. And I say this as someone who was at the game!

Dan Szymborski: It was way too long! It was like they rebooted Circus of the Stars and all the acts were Steve Trachsel.

Tony: People complain the first round of the NBA playoffs is boring because the top seeds nearly always advance. Those same people complain about the LDS being 5 games because of the unpredictability and the high number of top seeds going down. Which is it?

Dan Szymborski: *Are* they the same people?

Dan: Think we will see any high priced veterans on the move? A Price, Heyward, Greinke or someone similar?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Greinke, doubt on others

Rob: What would be a reasonable offer if Boston were to go after Sale? Could Chicago get Devers, Moncada and Kopech??

Dan Szymborski: I think they coudl, but the White Sox I think would turn that down.

Hank: Last week you said Moncada and Kopech would be a fair return for Freddie Freeman. That seems a bit silly, he’s 27 years old with 5 years of contract left with a 20-21 million AAV, he’s the best 1st baseman in baseball and a MVP caliber… So Mike Trout could be had for just Benintendi, Moncada, and Kopech?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see, best first baseman in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Recent fWAR 1B standings for Freeman, 1st, 10th, 7th, 4th. I guess if you think that we’re going into some weird Groundhog Day where everyone just repeats their 2016 over and over again.

Dock Ellis: Should Kyle Kendrick be a HOFer?

Dan Szymborski: The Kyle Kendrick of commissioners, Bowie Kuhn, is already in, so why not?

Peter: Washington could get the players to do lines of coke, Braves might be pumped up enough to contend in 2017

Julio Pepper: My friend Maxamuz and I were discussing: who says no, Kluber for Moncada?

Dan Szymborski: Think the Indians do.

Pennsy: It would be easier to steal a base if you could overrun it like first. But that’s not the rule! Having to maintain contact with the bag is part of what makes stealing 2nd or 3rd difficult. If you’re unable to maintain contact with the bag you must have been overrunning to make up for a bad jump, or just executed a bad slide altogether.

Dan: My playoff beard is getting damn itchy.

Greg: Will Napoli get a QO, would he accept?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe and yes

Jim Lonborg: Yeah, in Boston November is still legitimately Fall, hardly ever snows. April is often when we get our biggest snowfalls, not to mention the cruel wind off the harbor.

Tess of the D’Arnouds: Does the BBWAA clubhouse now have energy drinks where the Scotch used to be?

Dan Szymborski: WE HAVE A CLUBHOUSE?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody told me.

Dan Szymborski: But there’s no real set of official rules in a pamphlet, just what’s written on the badge.

Dan Szymborski: I had still been using my badge to obtain daily credentials becuase I didn’t realize I could just show my badge and walk in

5 Run Homer: Ty Cobb was a dick and he’s in the HOF. Schilling should be in the HOF no matter how much you hate him

Dan Szymborski: The stories of *Ruth* would make him hated today.

Dan Szymborski: The bellyache thing, the sheep testosterone, holding his manager off the back of a moving train

Dan Szymborski: Literally waving his paychecks in teammates faces

Dan Szymborski: And so on

Tess of the D’Arnouds: Does Cistulli use a surprisingly large amount of Axe body spray?

Dan Szymborski: He is scented with eau d’evil

Guest: Bob Gibson postseason stats are amazing. 9 starts, 81 IP. ERA- and FIP- in the 50s.

James: How about my Cubs let Fowler leave, trade Soler for Ender?

Dan Szymborski: I think too much shine has come off Soler.

Graves: Would you start Urias or shirt rest Kershaw game 4? Asking for a friend,

Dan Szymborski: I’d start Urias. If you’re going to have to get a win from Kershaw anyway, might as well give him more rest

Tess of the D’Arnouds: No politics? Why do you continue to suppress the vaping community’s views on the DH?

Dan Szymborski: OK, one o clock. Actually have to go, since I have a 1:30 appointment.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!

Dan Szymborski: As my usual reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.