Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/11/21

Dan Szymborski: And we are LIVE

Dan Szymborski: Because a taped chat doesn’t work since I won’t have any questions.

Dan Szymborski: Or I guess we could do the Mr. Show sketch thing where all the questions submitted are for next week’s chat.

Dan Szymborski:

Joe: Bryan Reynolds, Matt Olson, Corey Seager, which left handed bat ends up in the bronx?

Dan Szymborski: I can see Reynolds ending up in New York

Dan Szymborski: Hicks is super risky at this point

Dan Szymborski: and I think that 2021 broke the standard arrangement that Gardner can, like, just show up in spring and get a one-year, $10 million contract or so.

TomBruno23: Did Dusty pull a Matheny Game 6 2013 WS and use not-so-good relievers in a close(r) game before going to his better pitchers in a blowout?

Dan Szymborski: I think Dusty’s usage was largely driven by just who was rested

Mozeliak: Who say no -moustakas for did?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

TomBruno23: LIDOM on mlb.tv is the best…not sure Pujols’ 200/273/233 slash line is going to get a spring invite.

Brian: Does ZiPS take into account spring training performance? If not – and assuming there’s still value to be had in incorporating this data (based on Dan Rosenheck’s study from 5 years ago) – why?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: It’s simply a time thing.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a *small* gain for the one-year projections

Dan Szymborski: But one-year projections, everyone’s pretty much got nailed around a fairly tight center

Dan Szymborski: most of my work these days is modeling longer term things

Joe: What should we expect from Verlander in 2022?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK, but it’s speculative at this point

George: How do you think the Robles/Thomas CF situation in DC plays out? Thomas did great in the Majors while Robles was good after his demotion. Stick Thomas in Left and hope that both of them can figure it out?

Dan Szymborski: I actually expect them to keep this wide open and hope the spring makes the answer clearer

Dan Szymborski: I expect the loser becomes basically the fourth outfielder

Phil Buck – Milwaukee: Good morning. Is this a safe space? 😀

Dan Szymborski: Nothing I do is safe!

Phil Buck – Milwaukee: Oops…

Dan Szymborskate: Does Schwarber work as a LF for the Phillies? Defense is suspect, but would the bat overcome that?

Dan Szymborski: He’d be fun. His defense isn’t *that* bad out there

Dan Szymborski: He’s not Hoskins

TomBruno23: I think a commenter posted this in David Laurila’s notes column last week…have you ever run The Unit’s Zips after his age-28 season in 1992 coming off three straight seasons leading the AL in BBs?

Dan Szymborski: I have not. Would be fun to do.

Mozeliak: that was moustakas for Didi gregorius

TomBruno23: Beck’s Odelay is the perfect soundtrack to today’s SzymChat.

Guest: Can you do a what if projection assuming Pujols turned 41 this year?

Dan Szymborski: I only know what I can prove.

TomBruno23: Lane Thomas is an injury waiting to happen. Health is a skill and he does not possess that skill.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you can always play a dude until he’s injured

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Any worries about Kelenic?

Dan Szymborski: I talked a bit of Kelenic in my AL West elegy

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/elegy-for-2021-recapping-the-al-west-team-…

Zach: How much do you think Cody Bellinger’s struggles went into Tatis’ decision not to have shoulder surgery?

Dan Szymborski: Little

LB: Is there an estimated date for 1st ZiPS release and do you have an order?

Dan Szymborski: A week to 10 days. Depends on the contour of the news

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: I imagine the GM meetings where a bunch of dudes in an enclosed space bumping into each other asking “Are you the Mets GM?”

brad penny for your thoughts: do you think A. Reyes and J. Hicks can “make it” as starters?

Dan Szymborski: The ship on that has sailed, already returned, sailed again, and all the credit card bills from the original voyage have already been paid off.

Rick Hahn: I love “my guys”; but should I go for Conforto or spend on Escobar and bring in Joc?

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox should swim in the deep end as far as is available.

LB: Thanks Dan, that is my christmas morning.

Dan Szymborski: Now I’m going to have to delay it to Christmas to stay out of the whole holiday issue!

Dig’em Smacks: So, did you ever get the new car?

Dan Szymborski: I did.

Andrew: What are your thoughts on the current group of Angel pitchers? I have seen some hesitation that may take too much to make the rotation and bullpen viable (I disagree), and I would like an outside smart opinion.

Dan Szymborski: I just think they’re too thin right now talent-wise.

Dan Szymborski: If this is more a micro question, I think they have a few too many guys who don’t throw first-pitch strikes

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: What was the runner up name for ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS was actually supposed to be ZiPs, so ZiPS is kind of the runner up!

Guest: Need some new Time Warps, Dan. Any candidates on the HOF ticket?

Dan Szymborski: Time Warps gotta fight with ZiPS this time of year. Youl’ll see more of the winter

Sanford: Any thoughts on the All-MLB team selection process? Do we think the players even know about it/care? I know other team sports (NBA, NHL, NFL) have a similar system of naming all-stars in the middle of the year in addition to an all-league team at the end, but since it’s so new for MLB, it almost feels gimmicky.

Dan Szymborski: It’s gimmicky right now

Dan Szymborski: There’s just no reason for anyone to particularly care about it outside of MLB pushing it

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t have a long history

Dan Szymborski: And without public awareness or some big cash prize, it’s hard to expect players to be too concerned about it

Dan Szymborski: Now, give 500K to the first-team members and 200K to the second-team members and they’d care a lot more

Cave Dameron: Brrrrrr… this chat is very cool!

White Sox Fans: “The White Sox should swim in the deep end as far as is available.” We know, but JR does not let that happen.  If he did it would be Seager/Semien for 2B and something for RF/DH; plus always add pitching.

brad penny for your thoughts: behind the curtain, was there any talk of an article on shildt’s firing?  or is there ultimately not enough chili meat in that story?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly people announce whta they’re working on

Dan Szymborski: The problem with a Shildt story is that so much is speculation

Dan Szymborski: And we don’t really do speculation and rumor

Dan Szymborski: Even though there’s a lot o fit

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to fan the fires, but to put it in as benign a fashion as possible, Shildt was never really *the* guy that the front office chose. The team just played a lot better under him that year than Matheny and it became more awkward to not keep him.

NashvilleSounds: The SuperBaseball2000 discussion in the last pod was pretty funny; good work!

Dan Szymborski: Glad someone enjoyed it!

Dan Szymborski: I never know how I come off in the podcast. I’m probably the oddest/silliest writer/speaker here. I’m probably right up there in baseball writing as a whole.

Dan Szymborski: Now, someone who doesn’t find the same things that I do amusing, must have a really low bar for disliking me immensely!

TooDamnTall: Love that the elegy series is back. Itm

Dan Szymborski: People appear to have enjoyed this format.

Dan Szymborski: The problem with doing the 30 team one was that by myself, it was basically 100,000, so I was basically writing a novel every fall, which would delay the ZiPS

>this guy<: Oh hell yeah Time Warps but at the nexus of before they became great instead of vice versa, sych as big unit idea above

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Ah, I was hoping for something like Danny Danger’s Super Sports Future Telling Machine

Tiger Fan: What keeps projections so down on the Tigers’s roster? They’re not great by any means, but “least talented in baseball” feels a bit heavy. What am I missing?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say at this point, simply because the projections right now are Steamer’s

Ken: Any chance Gray stays with Rox, and if not, where do you guess he signs and for how much?

Dan Szymborski: I expect slim

Dan Szymborski: Though I guess I could see the Rockies sign Gray for 3/50 or something because they don’t understand that 1/19 would be a far better deal.

TomBruno23: Moose for Didi? Moose for anyone is no.

Mozeliak: that was Didi Gregorius for moustakas

Dan Szymborski: I don’t understand what the question is!

Mozeliak: How much does Castillo’s value go up if dealt out of the Queen City?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure it goes up

Dan Szymborskate: Have you ever seen Brockmire? Have you ever crushed up and snorted an abortion pill? Should I ask this during the lightning round so you have to answer?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Dan Szymborski: No. Is that a thing?

Dan Szymborski: No. Offseason chats are slower.

Key Flaw: In my basement/game room, I have a flag of Austria-Hungary, Kindgomd of the Two Sicilies, and the Paleologos flag of the Eastern Roman Empire. What other defunct kingdom/empire flag should I get next?

Dan Szymborski: If you have the Paleologos flag, why not get some of the other Greek successor states of the time?

Dan Szymborski: Empire of Trebizond flag

Dan Szymborski: Did the Despotate of Morea use the same flag?

Dan Szymborski: Free Republic of Vercors

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (seal of carpatho-ukraine)

Dan Szymborski: North Ingria

Gabe: Is there hope that Gleyber Torres bounces back?

Dan Szymborski: Some

Willie Mays GOAT: With possibility of Belt leaving, and Gausman, Disco, Wood, others too. Do you think they are closer to 3rd place next year or 1st again (and buying into Farhan voodoo)?

Dan Szymborski: Closer to 3rd, but they have a lot of winter to do stuff

TomBruno23: I received my COVID Booster yesterday and I all I got was a sore arm. And this chat. And coffee.

Dan Szymborski: My condolences on coming down with szymchat

Dan Szymborski: I had fewer side effects from my booster than the second shot

Bill Schmidt: Since I’m not bringing back Story or Gray, who should I sign to make Rockies the playoff contender that my boss, Dick Monfort, always thinks we are?!

Dan Szymborski: Someone with incriminating photos of Monforts to blackmail them into stepping aside?

FA Frenzy: Which FA pitcher has the best chance of being 2022’s version of Ray that puts everything together and exceeds expectations?

Dan Szymborski: Heaney maybe?

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers with freaky HR totals tend to be good bounceback candidates

TomBruno23: Assuming Wainwright throws a pitch in 2022 that will be 16 years after he finished the World Series. I need to do this again at one point I figured out who lasted the longest after throwing the last pitch of a World Series. I think it was Jesse Orosco going from 17 years from 1986 to 2003, at least in modern times.

Dan Szymborski: Babe Adams was 17 years

soxfan: What do you think the chances are that the redsox resign Schwarber, does he project better or worse in Fenway then his 3 year projections going in to last season?

Dan Szymborski: I think for Sox he was just a fill-in

Dan Szymborski: he was awesome with Boston, but he’s also not a great fit for the park

Dan Szymborski: and JDM didn’t opt out

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: What will be the players’ biggest gain in the new CBA?

Dan Szymborski: I’m hoping they find something that works better to avoid service time manipulation

George: How would a Strasburg for Eric Hosmer trade work? Seems that money would have to trade hands, but Strasburg also seems significantly more valuable when hes healthy. Allows the Nats to move payroll and maybe add a prospect or two and gives the dads a potentially elite pitcher when healthy.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think this trade would work.

Dan Szymborski: That’s a huge gamble on a player with health questions

George: Any hope for Corbin? Where on earth did the strikeouts go?

Dan Szymborski: His stuff got notably worse. Contact rate jumped a bunch

John B: Jim kaat in 1965 had a 4 WAR difference between b and f.  His whole career has the same.  45 vs 71.  What gives ?

Dan Szymborski: He’s got one of the largest FIP/ERA discrepancies

TomBruno23: Jon Gray feels like a Cardinal signing.

TooDamnTall: It’s not defunct, but Albania has a badass flag

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: What was the alternative title for Moneyball?

Dan Szymborski: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Long Bomb

TomBruno23: szymchat is not real, put on by the fake news media to trick everyone into thinking Dan Szymborski is a real person when in fact he is clearly a bot send from the future to destroy our love of the national pastime.

Dan Szymborskate: How’s your mother doing? She still knocking over your trash cans?

Dan Szymborski: Mom’s fine. Her health has actually gotten quite a bit better since she retired.

Dan Szymborski: Though she keeps getting sick babysitting my nephew and then she comes over here and gets me sick too.

mike sixel: Do you think a: The Twins and Buxton play out the year; B: They agree to an extension; C: They trade him?

Dan Szymborski: B > C >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> A

TooDamnTall: You are a man with ideas, some of which are actually palatable! I want players to have free markets where they can earn what their worth and choose which organizations they work for. But I also miss the old days when team rosters were more static and fans got more attached to players on ‘their’ team. How can we get the best of both worlds?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure you really can

Dan Szymborski: The system we have kind of is a balance between those things

ANES_Pilot: Do you buy the Reds weirdly high park factor in 2020/2021 (relative to prior years)? What does Zips think? Will this lead to teams disagreeing on Reds free agents to any significant degree.

Dan Szymborski: One-year park factors are notoriously volatile

Dan Szymborski: So will 1.3875-year park factors

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Is Hosmer a full time starter in 2023?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe for the Rockies

James: Is Cristian Javier with 10% better command an ace?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s say 15%

Ben: Is Bobby Dalbec good enough to be a starting 1B/DH somewhere in your eyes?  Having a RHH pre-arb player with his batted ball profile seems valuable to me, but obviously the contact and walk rates are a huge question mark.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s Cronic. He can start at 1B, but he’s not going to be your franchise player there

Jeb: Which team does Zips forecast  Trevor story to sign with : ) ?

Dan Szymborski: NO FAIR ASKING ZIPS TO PROJECT THINGS IT DOES NOT PROJECT

Splork!: Well, what kind of car did you get?

Dan Szymborski: I got a Mazda 3 Turbo in the hatchback form factor.

Dan Szymborski: MSRP, unfortunately. Given the lack of availability of new cars, buyers have little leverage, so no haggling success here. I was happy to get it just for MSRP

Dan Szymborski: But I can’t complain TOO much because I literally got $300 less for my 2018 Crosstrek than I paid for it in 2018.

Kretin: Which pitcher(s) would you target if you were running the Angels?

Dan Szymborski: *.*

Jeb: Can you  politely ask Mr.  neural net to create a story about the time Zips tried to project where Story would land in the 2021/22 offseason?

Dan Szymborski: You can ask!

Dan Szymborski: Angels ought to be in on Scherzer *and* Eduardo Rodriguez/Carlos Rodon

Dan Szymborski:

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Where does ZiPS forecast I left my sunglasses?

Dan Szymborski:

Appa Yip Yip: Could Nightwing beat up Batman?

Dan Szymborski: Without the gadgets I’ll say yes

Woodcawk: I take transit most days, debating selling my vw golf. Used value has gone way up since I bought it a year ago but i don’t know when I’ll be able to get a relatively cheap car again

James: “This year, Father Time comes for Nelson Cruz”, I whispered to myself for the 8th year in a row.

TooDamnTall: Have you ever lied and pretended zips predicted some area it doesn’t, like elections or cattle futures etc

Dan Szymborski: I believe I’ve made a joke about it

Dan Szymborski: Thought not actually *lied*

Luis Ca-steal-yo Girl: Does Stroman’s xERA-to-ERA difference worry you going forward and with any potential age cliff he might see in his next contract?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not. ZiPS is frequently agreeing with the Statcast derived data, but is not in this case

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: How many pancakes does ZiPS project me to eat?

Dan Szymborski:

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Could Nightengale beat up Bartman?

Dan Szymborski: Bartman’s younger, so without specific knowledge of their relative fighting abilities, I’d say no

Dan Szymborski: However, if the fight takes place in a media environment, Bobby might be around and then Bob can tag out and they would have the advantage

Key Flaw: I asked her for Adidas and she bought me ZiPS

TomBruno23: One time Jeff Sagarin told me he juiced Rutgers in his ratings when Ray Rice was there because they attended the same high school. That comment has not aged well.

TooDamnTall: I know in the past you’ve said that Shane Bieber’s breakout was zips shiniest success. Is there a turd projection from the past that keeps you up at night?

Dan Szymborski: LASTINGS MILLEDGE DEAR GOD

Jeb: If zips were a terminator, which one would it be?

Dan Szymborski: Gary Terminator, head of the terminator services department

Feline Steve: Adley Rutschman or Dinelson Lamet? I can hold over one.

Dan Szymborski: Gotta go with Adley

Dan Szymborski: as much as I love Lamet

Juan soto: Should I sign a 5 year deal to bank a fortune and then hit free agency again when I’m even better or hold out for the mega deal in a couple years?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t sign a five year deal unless the numbers are CRAZY SAUCE

Pumpsie Green: Who wins the NL East if no one signs anyone, or if they all improve from here by exactly the same amount?  Phillies?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies, I’m pretty sure

Dan Szymborski: If Freeman signs fairly quickly, then Braves

Pumpsie Green: The Rockies seem deeply loyal to THEIR guys. MLB is very predatory, especially this time of year. Do the Rockies generate good will among some players by zigging? Or is every player all about the zag?

Dan Szymborski: Their loyalty seems to be quite variable.

Dan Szymborski: It’s weird, the Rockies usually show a lot of loyalty to their front office employees. But they’re so incompetent at knowing who should make decisions that the loyalty is a bad thing in terms of the Rockies competing

Guest: Scott Boras says something stupid that he thinks is clever, a reporter tweets it because they think they’re supposed to, another reporter retweets the first reporter- it’s just an endless incestuous feedback system from people who need to fill time and space, and it’s so miserable…

Dan Szymborski: It’s the offseason

Bart: If you had to keep one guy between Kyle Schwarber and Teoscar Hernandez, who would you take?

Dan Szymborski: Teoscar

Appa Yip Yip: Why didn’t the Rockies trade Jon Gray if there weren’t going to qualify him?

Dan Szymborski:

How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Best baseball movie after Naked Gun?

Dan Szymborski: Sandlot

Luis Ca-steal-yo Girl: What can the Brewers do to improve? They have a dominant pitching staff. So where do they get some offense?

Dan Szymborski: It won’t happen, but I’d LOVE to see the Brewers steal Freeman out from under the Braves

Brian: (follow-up to the ST stats question, and yes it’s for fantasy baseball) What other data could make a big difference for the projection of a few dozen players, but overall doesn’t add enough value to bother with?

Dan Szymborski: Very specific pitcher mix data for players who don’t play a lot

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have an NL East elegy to finish, so I have to close off this chat for this week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone!

Dan Szymborski: Hope to see you all next week.

Dan Szymborski: (Maryland isn’t southern enough for me to say y’all)