Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/21/19

Dan Szymborski: And away we go!

Peter Thomas: How’s that ZiPS 101 article coming?  I know it feels to you like self promotion, but there are sooooo many projection skeptics out there who could be converted if they better understood the process.

Dan Szymborski: Not even thinking about it until my two big year-end/winter projects (the elegies and the ZiPS are done).

Dan Szymborski: I had process writing.

Jeff: What’s $/WAR at these days and how can I help make it better for the owners?

Dan Szymborski: Depends who you ask. Based on ZiPS projections, I still get the best predictor of salaries players get in the mid 7s.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s become increasingly nonlinear.

Dan Szymborski: It was always *supposed* to be nonlinear, but throughout 40 years of FA, acted linear. That appears to be changing.

P: If anything, this Astros scandal only emboldens my faith in the team. Does that make me a bad person? And if so, why do I not care?

Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s better for this to embolden your faith than the Taubman stuff.

Dan Szymborski: I’m still disappointed that banging a trash can was part of a technology-driven process.

Dan Szymborski: I really was hoping something more Bond villainy.

Jeff: Lindor trade: this offseason, 2020 TDL, next offseason, or 2021 TDL?

Dan Szymborski: MAYBE next offseason.

Dan Szymborski: But a lot depends on how the Indians do.

Corey: With the Braves making somewhat win-now moves, do you think they make a trade for Mookie, Lindor, or Marte with all their valuable assets? Would you make that move?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Lindor is traded and I suspect Betts won’t be traded either due to the price.

Dan Szymborski: Marte would be an intriguing option though.

Joe: How do top starting pitchers feel about pitching metrics and being told which pitch to use vs. using their experience and gut feel?   Is this the same as the scouts vs. the metric folks? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: You should talk to Dave Laurila! I probably talk more video games with players than baseball.

Jeff: Godzilla or Kong next year? Should be a big fight

Dan Szymborski: King Kong’s just a big gorilla right? I would think Godzilla more powerful.

Trent: We’ve heard recently that the Kris Bryant grievance might be resolved soon.  It was filed back in 2015; do we know why the years-long delay ensued?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not labor lawyer, but I imagine it’s harder to rule on that grievance in 2015 because there’s less to go on for damages?

Logan: Which is the biggest area of need for a contender to fill this off-season.  Nationals 1B?  Indians 2B?  Perhaps something else?

Dan Szymborski: Those two are huge. Indians need another OF at least too. Rockies as well. Brewers/Reds SS

Dan Szymborski: (I liked Arcia as a prospct, but at this point, I don’t think it’s happening)

CamdenWarehouse: Is anyone else having issues with the “view rest of comments” button in Firefox 70?

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: The Leafs actually fired Babcock yesterday – what would you do if someone paid you 20 million plus not to coach hockey?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be impressed with my negotiating skills because I’m currently being paid $0 to not coach hockey.

Max: Who do you think end up with the most ABs in the Cardinals outfield this year?

Dan Szymborski: Fowler I imagine?

Jeff: Between the Will Smith and Chris Martin deals, would you say the Braves have paid back the taxpayers? Two whole relievers, and early in FA too which is very woke, these guys are trying

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: Like the taxpayers are getting paid back.

Dan Szymborski: When someone swipes your wallet, don’t hang around waiting for them to bring back the change.

Jeff: Bigger accomplishment in the eyes of the 2019 MLB: Theo Epstein’s 3 WS rings or Andrew Friedman’s 38% reduction in payroll with the Dodgers over 5 years after his strong $/WAR run with the Rays?

Dan Szymborski: Well, teams don’t like paying money for stuff.

AJ Hinch: In 2017 we Astros were by far the leaders in wRC+ at home with 136. On the road it was 3rd best at only 114. We’re just more comfortable at home. That’s all!

Edward: Is there any reason for the Reds to *not* offer Jacoby Ellsbury a minor-league deal?

Dan Szymborski: It makes more sense for a rebuilding team.

Esoteric Jeff: Okay so here’s how it works, Dan: you’re gonna put this buzzer in your shoe and every time I want a question of mine bumped to the head of the queue and answered you will feel a mild but memorable shock. Nobody will be the wiser.

Dan Szymborski: TORTURING ME SLIGHTLY IS AGAINST THE RULES I THINK

Marc: As a baseball writer who presumably wants every player to succeed, how do you rationalize the idea in your head that baseball is a zero sum game? Over the past year I’ve gotten a bit sad seeing players I want to improve while recognizing that batters’ success will come at the expense of pitchers’ failures and vice versa.

Dan Szymborski: I want every player to get a chance to succeed.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t expect a Lake Woebegon talent distribution

Eel Ffilc: What happened to Joc’s steals once he got to MLB? 114 in 464 minor league games but only 16 in 705 MLB games.

Dan Szymborski: That’s not unusual for non speed guys

Dan Szymborski: Adam Dunn stole 20 bases twice in the minors and 19 in his rookie year.

Dan Szymborski: Big DOnkey was surprisingly agile when young.

Dan Szymborski: But it’s not a real net positive, so why risk it for a guy who contributes offense in other ways?

Peter Thomas: Yesterday I did my daily deep dive into the horror that is Eric Hosmer and found something I can’t explain.  In 2019 Hosmer sported a 19.6 k% against LHP and 26.1 k% against RHP.  Maybe a one year thing?  His total career K rate is only 17.4%, and he has historically been good against RHP.  Is there some weird way that this gives us hope that he just has to make a single adjustment to go back to being a 130 wRC+ kind of guy?

Dan Szymborski: At the risk of being cruel, he only hit a 130 once.

Dan Szymborski: And a third of 2019 vs. 2011-2019 is league difference.

Dan Szymborski: I think the problem is that Eric Hosmer just isn’t very good.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a meh contact hitter at this point who hits a lot of groundballs hard.

Baseball Guy: Heard a bit about Lindor, maybe Seagar, maybe Story, being available. Aside from musical chairs and the Reds (who might get Didi anyway) is there a SS trade market for them, good as they are?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be shocked if Seager or Story were available.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Lindor is likely to be unless the team’s bowled over

Josh: Looks like Grandal to the White Sox… do they have a shot at the AL Central this year?

Dan Szymborski: Still a stretch I think, but we don’t know what else is going on this winter.

Hot Stove: Hey Dan can we get your real-time reaction to Grandal -> White Sox (4 years 73 mil)?

Dan Szymborski: Doing an InstaGraphs after the chat!

Dan Szymborski: Which also means that I’m going to have to be strict about the one hour time limit.

Adam: How close are we to pitchers and catchers using some sort of technology to eliminate the need for signs in the first place?

Dan Szymborski: Just use a damn headset.

Dan Szymborski: I think MLB will eventually just let them have earpieces

P: I’m sorry, I can’t hear your allegations over the sound of this trash can *bangs trash can louder*

Motown Oden: One of my favorite Thanksgiving leftovers is what is universally accepted to be an Open-Faced Hot Turkey Sandwich.  Question is, do you enjoy said meal, and if so what do you call it?

Dan Szymborski: I like leftover turkey cold.

tom: the way P framed that comment, i’m concerned that P thinks taubman stuff was a positive.

Astros: I can see not caring (people do a lot of things in this life), but I have no idea how this would… make you believe MORE in their talent.

Post Malone: How much can you bench?

Dan Szymborski: When my fatass goes to the gym, I do stuff that’s more geared towards weight loss/cardio like treadmill and rowing machine.

Esoteric Jeff: Let’s assume that Anthony Rendon isn’t returning to the Nationals. Which would be a better signing for them to fill the hole at 3B, Donaldson at a presumably inflated price or Moustakas at something lesser?

Dan Szymborski: It really comes down to just what the prices are. Both have merit!

Desperate Times: Re: Bryant Grievance delay, they wanted to rob it of its service time before hearing the case.

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, where does the ZiPS top 100 prospects fall on your to-do list? Presumably after the elegies (which are great, by the way) but the lack of KATOH & Fringe Five has left a gaping hole in my heart for stats-only MiLB analysis. Dan, I cannot afford a cardiologist.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got an organized offseason plan this year!

Desperate Times: Re: Biggest Contender Need – Astros @ Catcher.

Post Malone: Any hope Greg Bird can resurrect his career away from NYC?

Dan Szymborski: If he can say healthy, there’s a point.

Gregg: Important point, Dan: the bond villians’ death traps never actually *worked.*  The Astros were obviously going for a higher level of effectiveness, and their trash can was just a solution elegant in its simplicity.

Dan Szymborski: Bond villains were going after James Bond.

Dan Szymborski: Those traps would have caught Rick Bond, actuary.

Dbo: Is Chili Davis allowed to eat beans without having to change his name?

Dan Szymborski: As long as he’s not made of beans, it’s OK

Dan Szymborski: People don’t usually grow legumes.

Cube Jockey: How did the Astros think they would get away with this?  Wouldn’t they expect someone to spill the beans the second they moved on to a new organization?

Dan Szymborski: That’s almost the disappointing thing.

Dan Szymborski: I was raised by a family that valued being *smart* above everything else. So thanks to my upbringing, the incompetence at their plan offends my sensibilities more than the morality.

Dbo: What are your Thanksgiving plans this year?

Dan Szymborski: Dinner at my sister’s house

brad: Dan, Yankees Lost all 4 playoff games AT Houston, nothing suspicious there…

Dan Szymborski: But the Astros lost all the games AT houston in the WS!

Dan Szymborski: OMG THE TRASH CAN WAS MOVED TO DC, THERE WAS FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT

Post Malone: Will Luhnow lose his job?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect no, but his fingers will get more than singed.

Yankees Doctor: This is the biggest need. (Was that really all just bad luck and thus likely to change back to a more normal level?)

Dan Szymborski: At this point, I’d call it luck.

Dbo: How are the kittens?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty good.

Dan Szymborski: Now that the attic visitor has been evicted!

Dan Szymborski: For those that didn’t follow me on Twitter, there some loud scraping in my attic and I thought I had a squirrel. I was unable to humanely catch the squirrel with peanuts.

Dan Szymborski: So I called the wildlife guy and he found it was a raccoon! He saw paw prints in some dust near the attic opening and in the mud out back near the big chunk A/C outside part

Dan Szymborski: Part of my rain gutter back there had gotten bent slightly without me realizing and it was dumping water on the side of the roof, enough to rot a section for a raccoon to push open.

Dan Szymborski: That’s being patched next week and I’m taking the opportunity to have my gutters replaced.

Adam: Odds that the Dodgers get one of Cole/Rendon/Strasburg?

Dan Szymborski: 25%? I’m not sure how much Dodgers really plan on spending this offseason

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Grandal’s bet on himself last season pays off

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Moustakas’ 2020 destination: Milwaukee or field?

Dan Szymborski: Field

Guest: If Kopech and Cease live up to the hype, White Sox are pushing to win the central pretty quickly right? That lineup is looking nice as Robert and Madrigal slide into it. Pitching is the last piece it seems.

Dan Szymborski: Fairly quickly, I’m just not sure it’s 2020

Dan Szymborski: Cease hasn’t yet mastered the majors and Kopech is coming off a serious injury

Rick Hahn: Did I really have to give Grandal that fourth year to get that deal done?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure it was given for charity

Trevor: What is the threshold number of steals in the minors necessary for a player to qualify as a “speed guy” whom we should expect to continue to post high SB totals in the majors?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s that binary

JT Bonomo: With the Sox signing grandal, what does this mean for Zach Collins?

Dan Szymborski: Likely trade bait

Trevor: 4/73 for Grandal.  Very close to Kiley’s prediction, but substantially more than the crowd’s.  Do you see any potential trend in the free agent market based on that deal and the handful of others we’ve seen so far?

Dan Szymborski: Not enough for a trend.

Ivan: Would headsets resolve the sign-stealing problems?  We’ve already seen the Patriots interfere with opposing teams’ headset technology in the NFL; some kind of intercept or interference to steal or obstruct an opposing teams’ signs seems quite possible in baseball as well.

Dan Szymborski: Teams will always try, I suspect

Wicho, Jr.: Speaking of Hosmer, who’s this year’s guy who gets overpaid because of his reputation?

Dan Szymborski: Bumgarner

fatass: The way you wrote that, it makes it seem like you own a separate person who is a “fatass.”

Dan Szymborski: No, just me. One of my cats is a fatass too.

Billy Beane: Eric Hosmer seems like the kind of guy whose career (from a performance perspective) would have benefited if he had gotten the Mike Moustakas treatment and had no FA interest so he had to work hard to improve his batted ball distribution a la Max Muncy. That said, I’m sure he’s happier to just be insanely rich and have a ring and be not that good at baseball.

kevinthecomic: Godzilla can breathe fire, meaning King Kong wouldn’t be able to get close enough to take advantage of his better reach (Godzilla has stumpy little front legs).

Mitch Morales: I think the Astros simply thought everyone else was doing it.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not certain that a lot of teams aren’t.

Cheating Expert: I think a big part of it (getting away with it) is making as many people accomplices as possible

TomBruno23: White Castle Impossible Slider Stuffing. In or Out?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

CamdenWarehouse: At what age do kittens cease to be kittens?

Dan Szymborski: One year. So my cats are no longer kittens since they turned 1 in early October.

Dan Szymborski: They’re still just as troublesome as kittens though.

Erik Guy: White Sox going for it! Who else can they sign on the free agent market that would have you in on them as a playoff team for 2020?

Dan Szymborski: COLE

Dan Szymborski: DO IT

CamdenWarehouse: Do you see suspensions being handed out for the Astros trash can banging?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Eric: Steamer projections have the Blue Jays looking very good at catcher next year because of development from their prospects.  Do you see them trading one of McGuire or Jansen?

Dan Szymborski: Certainly a possibility.

Mike Sixel: That Luis Arreaz projection on Zips is aggressive…. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: WAIT, ARE YOU RELEASING ZIPS PROJECTIONS, IF I CAN DOWNLOAD THEM IT SAVES ME A LOT OF WORK

Dan Szymborski:

Dbo: How come when I type in my credit card number it hides the numbers, look at this

**** **** **** ****

Is this a new feature, you should try it out!

P: Ah, my comment was not received well I see. Allow me to clarify. I in no way support the sign stealing and the comment has literally zero relation to the Taubman stuff. Stealing signs beyond the rule book is breaking the rules of a game. Supporting abuse affects people’s real personal lives. I understand the argument that so does sign stealing but then we’re getting philosophical and I would much rather stay topical given the forum.

P: My comment was more meant to highlight that my experience with the Astros winning the World Series is not tainted by this. The emotions I felt then were real and will live with me forever, trash can or not. The feeling of additional support for the team is a view of “prove them wrong”.  Prove the talent is real and this team is resilient.

Adam: How many teams would you need to name before you’d have 50% confidence that you’d predicted Cole’s landing spot?

Dan Szymborski: 4?

TomBruno23: It’s here, for real. https://www.whitecastle.com/craver-nation/recipes/white-castle-impossi…

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’m not doing that.

TomBruno23: INGREDIENTS
10 White Castle Impossible™ Sliders, no cheese, no pickles
1 ½ cups Celery, diced
1 ¼ teaspoon Thyme, ground
1 ½ teaspoon Sage, ground
¾ teaspoon Black pepper, coarsely ground
½ teaspoon Seasoned salt
1 cup Vegetable broth

Dan Szymborski: Let’s talk to transformer a Thanksgiving stuffing recipe!

Dan Szymborski:

Adam: Which team is least likely to  make the playoffs for the next 5 years?

Dan Szymborski: Marlins

CamdenWarehouse: Is Mike the Zips guy you’ve been stealing from all these years?

Dan Szymborski: No, that guy’s in my dungeon

Indians: We… we failed at this window, didn’t we?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s shut yet.

LFC Mike: Dan.  Do you need a visit from FEMA due to the raccoon and the no longer kittens but still rambunctious young cats?😾😻😽🙀😹

Dan Szymborski: Thankfully there’s not much in the attic to damage. It really just damaged an area of insulation.

Tommy: If you’re the Padres this offseason would you rather sign Madbum or Gibson? How many innings do you think Gore will contribute?

Dan Szymborski: No idea on Gore, but I imagine it won’t be a huge amount of innings.

Dan Szymborski: Gibson in SD would be intriguing

Michael: Re: punching the astros in 2020…i believe they effected the integrity of the game, or attempted to, consistently over a long stretch so the punishment to be punitive and serve as to deter all other teams.  How about providing every player on their 40man an immediate opt out option?

Dan Szymborski: You’re essentially giving the Astros a penalty there worth tens of millions of dollars. Is that in proportion to other things that teams have done?

Dan Szymborski: This isn’t a new thing really.

Suspensions: I think the league is going to make an example of HOU, fair or not, so yes, I think tens of millions is going to occur.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they do, because if the penalties for the violations and covering up are severe, I think we see more allegations floating around.

Dan Szymborski: Remember just a few years ago you had the Red Sox-Yankees swapping technological sign stealing accusations

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s going to be an order of magnitude larger than the Cards got for Correa.

Dan Szymborski: a few million bucks and a couple of draft picks

Dan Szymborski: but something on the level of LET EVERYONE IN THE ORGANIZATION BE A FREE AGENT seems grossly out of proportion

Homer: The Houston players participated in the cheating (at least the ones who didn’t refuse to do so) so giving them an opt out would be giving them an undeserved reward when they were not blameless

Banned: do you think anyone from the Astros (players or staff) gets a lifetime ban?

Dan Szymborski: No

Adam: When will we get lasers instead of chalk for the foul lines, and why is the answer “not soon enough?”

Dan Szymborski: I think it should be a blood filled moat

Adam: Where does Ryu end up?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up somewhere like San Diego

Suspensions: Ah, but does MLB want to risk being seen as not caring, or risk having more teams punished?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d like a balance

Michael: Why?  They got caught AFTER the red sox/nyy warning.  The value of a WS win is estimated at around $70mm.  A small penalty means everyone should do it.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a difference between a large penalty and an absolutely ludicrous one.

Dan Szymborski: Your proposal is absolutely ludicrous.

CamdenWarehouse: how about a cherry-filling filled moat instead?

Dan Szymborski: Mine’s more edgy

John: On WAR value: Non-linear how exactly?

Dan Szymborski: It does not appear that teams are valuing the first win of a player anywhere near $8+ million.

CubFan: Where do you think Didi ends up? How much of a chance he ends up back with the Yankees?

Dan Szymborski: Reds or Brewers would be a fun fit

Michael: Maybe but it sure would be a fun offseason!

Dbo: What if they implement a rule for sign stealing that you have to donate blood to fill the moat? Killing two birds with one stone

Michael: and provide A LOT of goodwill to the players union

Dan Szymborski: But why would you *reward* the players who participated in a sign-stealing scandal?

Dan Szymborski: If David makes contract murders part of my job and I tell on him, it would be a little absurd to *reward* me.

Michael: That’s fair, but taking drafts picks and fining an owner doesn’t penalize them

Dan Szymborski: How so?

Dan Szymborski: Teams value draft picks and they value millions of dollars. Why would taking draft picks and millions of dollars not penalize them?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, the players

Dan Szymborski: I think suspensions are a possibility

Heels: Well, if anything, the light penalties are basically going to make it so no one but a portion of Astros fans is fond of that team for a long time. So there’s that.

Dan Szymborski: In any system of justice, whether legal or something like this, basing penalties because WE MUST BE OUT FOR BLOOD is a bad idea.

Ryan: How about we reward Mike Fiers for blowing the whistle by giving *him* an opt out?  Or would any team sign him, if they think he’ll just out their dirty laundry?

Dan Szymborski: Reward? No.

Dan Szymborski: I’d give Fiers a lighter penalty than other Astros that are found to have been participated, but he should be suspended to.

Dan Szymborski: too.

Dan Szymborski: He’s not  “whistleblower” in this context. He reported it years later when he was a competitor of the Astros.

Dan Szymborski: And he admitted using this information to help his teams.

Dan Szymborski: “Fiers, who has pitched no-hitters for both Houston (August 2015) and Oakland (May 2019) in his career, also admitted that he informed teammates in Detroit and Oakland what the Astros were up to after leaving Houston.”

Dan Szymborski: In other words, he didn’t whistle blow to MLB as an informant.

Dan Szymborski: He used the information about the Astros cheating to benefit teammates in Detroit and Oakland, to give those players knowledge of something while leaving players on the other 27 teams in the dark.

CamdenWarehouse: Though with suspensions, you’d have to identify the ring-leaders. One of which (or maybe the only one) is now a manager in another org

Ryan: Yeah, because Mike Fiers, as a pitcher in the AL, really benefitted from the sign stealing . . . .

Dan Szymborski: A pitcher has totally never been advantaged by run support.

Michael: Not blood, equal monetary hit to the team and a huge detterance to further integrity of the game issues which, i believe, is the bigger deal

Dan Szymborski: Your monetary valuation is a bit silly.

Dan Szymborski: You wouldn’t price it as the value of winning the World Series vs. not.

Michael: y?  that was their gain

Dan Szymborski: No, their gain is the difference in the probability of winning the World Series stealing signs vs. the probability of winning the World Series by not stealing signs.

Sean: Taco Bell is testing chicken tenders in the Dayton, OH area. You going to go try them out?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to head off to do my Grandal!

LFC Mike: Epilogue. This has been a Quinn Martin Production