Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/16/15 by Carson Cistulli November 16, 2015 11:58 Dan Szymborski: It has begun. 11:58 Dan Szymborski: The chat, that is. 12:00 Comment From AndrewAre ZiPS projections a bell curve of possible high/low outcomes with the mean being the final projection, or is it merely a single, most likely value that gets spit out? 12:01 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS gives a whole distribution of outcomes. However, it’s not a predetermined curve like a normal curve. 12:01 Comment From Allen R.Begun it has! 12:02 Dan Szymborski: Now, it’s normally reserved for the commencement of a plot of dastardly deeds, so not quite applicable. 12:02 Comment From The DudeWho is better: Andrew Miller or Craig Kkimbrel? 12:02 Dan Szymborski: I’d probably still take Kimbrel in 2016. Though not for the prospects… 12:02 Comment From AndrewTo add to the bell curve of outcomes question, does a single stretch of insane success (or terrible-ness) have a significant effect on the tails of the range of outcomes ZiPS forecasts, if not the mean? I.e., does JBJ’s insane August increase the likelihood of his best-case-scenario projection? 12:02 Dan Szymborski: I have not found any significant value to this. 12:02 Comment From OrenMarco Estrada deal: Good, bad, indifferent? 12:03 Dan Szymborski: Indifferent – it’s a reasonable price for Estrada. I’m not on the Estrada Changeup Means He’ll Still Be Good bandwagon, simply because he’s always had an excellent changeup 12:03 Comment From grouchoThoughts on the accepted QOs? 12:04 Dan Szymborski: They were all good ideas to take. I still think Ian Kennedy should have, but there’s always a chance of the auction winner’s curse. 12:04 Dan Szymborski: I hope Samardzija at least thought seriously about it. 12:04 Comment From DougWhat is the most likely move the Cubs make? Price? Zimmerman? Trade? 12:04 Dan Szymborski: I think Price. 12:04 Comment From MarkHigh end and low end estimate for a Heyward contact? 12:05 Dan Szymborski: 130-200? Heyward’s market is really hard for me to grasp. 12:05 Dan Szymborski: I know I’ve talked about it plenty of times, but I’m just not sure that a team is ready to give nearly $200 million to a corner outfielder that gets so much of his value from defense. 12:05 Dan Szymborski: And there’s a good chance that I turn out wrong. 12:06 Comment From BobDan, which year will be the next year the Rockies aren’t hilarious and awful? 12:06 Dan Szymborski: Most likely after Monforts sell or have some epiphany that emulating the 1999-2007 Orioles is not going to make them richer 12:06 Comment From AndrewAre there any AL teams that are better off going into rebuild mode? Or will the supreme cellar dwellers continue to come from the NL next season? 12:07 Dan Szymborski: I think the White Sox are, simply because I don’t think they have enough of a payroll cushion to make many win-now signings. 12:08 Comment From ChrisZach Wheeler for Jackie Bradley and Devin Marrero? 12:08 Dan Szymborski: Doubt the Mets do that. 12:09 Comment From JustinWhat kind of player do you think Domingo Santana can be? I love his eye at the plate. 12:10 Dan Szymborski: I’m very optimistic about Santana – he took a big step forward in the minors this year. I’m still unsure he’ll hit fo ra high average though. 12:10 Comment From The DudeIs Andrew Miller the most lanky MLB player? If not, who is? 12:10 Dan Szymborski: Chris Sale could play Gumby in a live-action movie. 12:11 Comment From 2-DHey Dan tell someone at ESPN to update their depth charts, they still have Chris Johnson on the Braves. 12:12 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if they’r eupdated regularly in the offseason. I don’t have anything to do with that. 12:12 Comment From marca deal built around Todd Fraizer for Gregory Polanco. Who says no 12:12 Dan Szymborski: Pirates. 12:13 Comment From Andrelton Simmons Big RigFor us DMB guys. Does Carlos Santana have enough innings caught in 2014 to get one last horrible catcher projection in 2016? 12:13 Dan Szymborski: Probably. I don’t like making DMB position qualification decisions in November. 12:13 Comment From KGWill we see teams try to copy the Royals strong bullpen formula by going after multiple “elite closers” to shorten games? 12:13 Dan Szymborski: It’s likely – there are always teams that overlearn the lesson of the World Series winner. 12:15 Comment From ChrisHow does Ian Kennedy not take the QO? Unreal. 12:16 Dan Szymborski: I thought the Rockies actually getting a benefit from giving *Cuddyer* a QO was unreal, too! 12:16 Comment From AdamDynasty league…Jon Gray or Josh Bell? 12:16 Dan Szymborski: Depends on the league, but Bell’s probably safer while Gray more interesting. 12:16 Comment From SteveRockies fan…need hope…Will Gray and Butler pan out? 12:17 Dan Szymborski: I think Gray likely will and Butler likely won’t 12:18 Dan Szymborski: But I’m generally negative on Colorado’s future. I don’t think the organization is really run all that well. 12:18 Comment From KGback in the day, the Astros had Lidge, Dotel, and Wagner. That team was dangerous but just didnt make it into the playoffs. 12:19 Comment From MKDo you think the Nats will make any major moves this year? 12:19 Dan Szymborski: I believe they will, though no Harper or Strasburg trades. 12:19 Comment From 976I understand that BABIP reverts to the mean, usually, for batters and to take any one-year surge with a large grain of salt. Is FIP the appropriate corresponding metric for pitchers, or do you and ZiPS prefer BABIP there as well? 12:19 Dan Szymborski: Hitters have a much weaker reversion to the mean than pitchers do. 12:19 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a BABIP model that isn’t exactly FIP. 12:19 Comment From PhilI guess the question now becomes: Do the O’s try and trade Joseph for some sort of usable player? He isn’t netting much, but some teams are in need of a starting-capable catcher and he’s one of the best defensively with borderline acceptable levels of offense and very team-friendly cost and control. 12:20 Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe they’re going to trade Joseph. Wieters is only signed for one year and hasn’t had a whole healthy year i na while. 12:20 Comment From The DudeShould I buy a subscription to ESPN insider, or a great new rug? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: Buy both, there’s always someone with a godo coupon code. http://www.cheapmagazinesit… 12:21 Comment From The DudeWhat is the earliest round draft pick you’d be willing to forfeit to sign Ian Kennedy? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: 5th? Kennedy’s just not very good. 12:21 Dan Szymborski: Maybe a higher one if the team has nearly an *exact* need for Kennedy 12:22 Comment From ChuckLorreYou’re a numbers guy. Big Bang Theory gets better numbers than Always Sunny. Admit Roseanne is better than DeVito. 12:22 Dan Szymborski: I will only admit it has more viewers. Nickelback sells more albums than Mozart does. 12:23 Dan Szymborski: (Roseanne though was fine until that weird last season) 12:23 Comment From 976Are the mid-season ZiPS (which I didn’t even know about until recently!) a decent proxy for next-year’s ZiPS, or are they more of a smaller sample size because they’re only supposed to fill in half a year of baseball for us DMBers? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: I’d use them as a decent proxy when next year ZIPS isn’t available – the in-season model is far simpler. 12:23 Comment From Doh!Should Orioles try to trade for and bring Markakis back? Seems Braves would be willing to trade him. 12:23 Dan Szymborski: No. 12:24 Comment From L. ScottROY announcements this evening. Lindor or Correa? Very close, but I think Lindor gets it, agree? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Correa got way more buzz. 12:25 Dan Szymborski: Lindor had his big run after people stopped caring about the Indians. 12:25 Comment From RyanWhat team will Chapman be on come Spring Training? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: In the end, I think the Reds will be unhappy with the offers. 12:25 Comment From The DudeThoughts on the Simmons trade? Should the Braves trade Freeman while they’re at it? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: I think the trade was a fair return on both sides. And Yes. 12:26 Comment From 976Is ZiPS plainly statistics based where someone like Joey Rickard or Aaron Altherr could have a remarkable projection based on their AAA statistics despite both being “meh” prospects, if even? 12:26 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is data-based. It is 0% my opinion. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: And no, I don’t expect either to get remarkable projections 12:27 Comment From MetHeadNow that Murphy declined the Mets QO, what do you think his value is in the open market 12:27 Dan Szymborski: 3/30 and nobody wanting to lose their first rounder 12:27 Comment From MintyWas last year realistically Lindor’s offensive ceiling going forward? 12:28 Dan Szymborski: I would have said last year was realistically his ceiling, but now that he’s actually *hit* his ceiling and it wasn’t because of some crazy .450 BABIP or something and he’ll just be 22, the new ceiling has to be higher 12:28 Comment From marcWhat are the chances Happ takes a small* discount to stay in Pittsburgh (*like what happened with Liriano last offseason) 12:29 Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a decent chance – Pittsburgh’s a good fit for him. 12:29 Comment From MSWWhat does ZiPS say about Brantley’s 2016 now that he’s having surgery? Still a reasonable keeper in a keep-6 fantasy league? 12:29 Dan Szymborski: Nothing new – ZiPS only knows what happened during the season, it’s not aware of future surgeries. 12:30 Comment From JakeIt seems difficult for the Mets to improve… should they sign a potential bounce back guy like Fister to flip at the deadline or move to the bullpen when Wheeler comes back? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: Depends how the market shapes 12:30 Comment From TomLots of people complaining that the Red Sox gave up too much for Kimbrel. However, what are the real odds that one of them turns out better than KImbrel? 1 in 5? Better or worse? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: That’s not really the comparison though, is it? 12:32 Comment From DerekYou’re the Phillies at 1-1 in the draft next year, the two best prospects are both equal in scouts eyes. What’s the tie breaker for you and which player do you take? 12:32 Dan Szymborski: Greater upside rather than higher floor. 12:32 Comment From AndrewIt seems like a lot of analysts are split on the Mets offseason. What’s your prediction? 12:33 Dan Szymborski: I think they’re fairly low key. For a team in New York, they’re in a rather grim financial position thanks to various ownership reasons. 12:33 Comment From EvanWould you consider a fixed strike zone, rather than one that varies with the stature of the batter, to be a logical accompaniment to balls and strikes being determined mechanically? 12:33 Dan Szymborski: No. 12:33 Comment From The DudeThe Mets current though process, “We made it to the World Series by forfeiting a draft pick to sign Cuddyer. If we lose another draft pick by signing Ian Kennedy we can’t lose! Genius!” 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Wait, did I miss something the Mets are doing? Did they sign Ian Kennedy during this chat? 12:34 Comment From Q-BallIs the DH coming to the National League with the new CBA? How would you feel about that? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: No, it’s not coming this CBA. 12:35 Dan Szymborski: Eventually it will come though – daily interleague play makes that an eventuality. 12:35 Comment From OrenAre the Padres gonna go full rebuild? Should they? 12:36 Dan Szymborski: No. Second question hard to say – they’re an organization that’s really hard to predict 12:36 Dan Szymborski: They went crazy last winter and then dead this summer. No idea what they’re thinking is 12:37 Comment From DaveWho do you think is the most likely destination for Ah-seop Son? I feel like his on-base and contact skills might make a good fit in a stadium like Safeco. He seems like the kind of player Dipoto would like, too. 12:37 Dan Szymborski: can’t really predict it since he’s not a traditional free agent – he’ll have one suitor and it will be the team that wins a closed negotiating process. 12:37 Dan Szymborski: Err a closed *bidding* process 12:37 Comment From GDRSP most likely to sign with the Blue Jays is ___________? 12:37 Dan Szymborski: Marco Estrada. P of 1. 12:38 Comment From TimTyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, and a lottery ticket prospect to Atlanta for Freeman and $20M, who says no? 12:38 Dan Szymborski: Pirates 12:39 Dan Szymborski: The thing about Freeman is that he’s a really good player, but he’s not a superstar – teams aren’t emptying out their best prospects for him. 12:39 Dan Szymborski: Or should I say I don’t *think* anyone’s emptying out their best prospects for him. 12:40 Dan Szymborski: Freeman’s owed what, 6/120? He would obviously beat that in free agency I think 12:42 Dan Szymborski: But does a team that has a long-term strategy that involves maximizing value from prospects pre-FA years even give up a Top 10/20 prospect for the privilege of giving Freeman 6/120? I dont’ think so 12:42 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Pirates would do well 6/100 for just Glasnow even. 12:43 Comment From Q-BallRosenthal says Padres are listening on Tyson Ross, but may want to include Matt Kemp in a deal to interested teams. Do their trade values cancel each other out? Is there a position in the field Kemp can play at this point? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run the numbers, but Kemp has so little value that I think they do. 12:44 Dan Szymborski: I may be willing to take Kemp as my payment for Ross, but I’m not sure I’d go more than that. 12:44 Comment From PeteWhat is the % chance that the Braves trade Freeman before the start of the 2016 season? Irrespective of that, if you are the Braves, do you trade Freeman? If so, who do you call and what are you looking for? Thanks! 12:44 Dan Szymborski: 50/50 and yes. I call everyone – targeting one specific trade partner for one specific player is a great way to not make a trade. 12:45 Comment From BretIt seems the Rockies have tried to build through pitching forever. Are they the one team that might benefit most from the Royals model? The contact guys will hit, the defense will stop as much as possible, and we at least see good relievers succeed there. The rotation? Meh whatevs. 12:46 Dan Szymborski: The Rockies have an additional problem with this strategy that the Royals did not – the field will punish a rotation full of guys like the Royals simply because it’ll eat up so much of the defensive value. 12:46 Comment From ZonkI still don’t get why anyone would trade cost-controlled Andrelton Simmons. Thoughts? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: If you’re not competing for years, I can see a good reason. 12:46 Comment From RickRealistically by when can we expect the Braves will be in contention again? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: I think 2018 is realistic. 12:47 Comment From Briani think Craig Biggio just said that shortstop and closer are the two most important players on any roster… 12:47 Dan Szymborski: Good for himn. 12:47 Comment From The DudeWill Jon Gray ever approach the greatness of Sonny Gray, or will he always be a gray shadow of a greater Gray? 12:48 Comment From The DudeDid the Mets succeed due to a long term plan, or did they just get kind of lucky? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Most teams that succeed tend to have good luck. I think they have a good long-term plan, hilariously helped because the ownership is so terrible, and were a little early in 2015. 12:49 Comment From C-RayAm I crazy or is Conforto not getting enough hype for 2016. Only one year removed from playing college baseball- looked great in the field, amazing oppo power, crazy high contact mph, sweet lefty swing. Wheres the hype? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: It’s not even Thanksgiving! 12:49 Comment From BuckWhat year do you think the Rockies will actually sign a front of the rotation free agent? Never? I mean who would want to go there? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: No. Wouldn’t say never. 12:49 Comment From KGin the new CBA, do you think teams will have less years of player control before hitting FA? 12:50 Dan Szymborski: The new CBA will not give teams fewer years of player control. 12:50 Comment From BravomanShould Braves just really blow it up? Trade Freeman, Teheran, Shelby, Maybin, and Aybar? 12:50 Dan Szymborski: They’ve already half blown up the team. What’s the point in stopping a demolition halfway? 12:51 Comment From BravomanWhy do the Braves need players like Markakis and Olivera during a big rebuild? 12:51 Dan Szymborski: They don’t. 12:52 Dan Szymborski: That they appear to think Olivera’s a building block is troubling – he’s already in his declining years. 12:52 Comment From 2-DGrade this far-fetched scenario: Rockies trade Dahl and others for Chapman, sign extension with Chapman and have him pitch six out saves. 12:52 Dan Szymborski: A for entertainment value, D for actually making the Rockies a good team 12:53 Comment From ZonkDo you think teams are now over valuing their draft picks? Most 1st rounders even don’t make it. 12:53 Dan Szymborski: No, the upside for a first-rounder is massive. 12:53 Comment From PhilDo you buy Duquette’s remarks that even with Wieters accepting the QO that they still have the payroll flexibility for Davis AND a mid-upper tier SP? I mean, I’m sure he has to say positive things and indicate that they will be FA players, but isn’t he only setting up fans for even more disappointment? 12:55 Dan Szymborski: No. They’re at $105 million or so now and unless they’re planning to spend $140-$150 million, I don’t see how they can get Davis *and* someone more. 12:55 Comment From LucasWhat kind of deal does Bud Norris get? His FB velo and swinging strike rates stayed the same but his ERA ballooned 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Probably a one-year pillow contrat 12:56 Comment From Q-BallJorge Soler had an up and down rookie year…do you think he’ll reach his potential, or is this it? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine, but people were too high on him last year. 12:57 Dan Szymborski: Coming into 2015, he essentially had one professional season *combined*. Now, it was a good one professional season, but you have to be careful on overrating a guy based on one season and who has yet to stay healthy 12:59 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projected Soler at 252/310/460 in 345 PA and 1.0 WAR coming into 2015 and that was one of the projections for which I got the most negative feedback 1:00 Dan Szymborski: People believe limited data too easily if it tends to match their beliefs on what will happen 1:00 Comment From some guyHypothetically, if you were a GM and your job was based on your solution to your team’s SS need, would you rather make the trade for Simmons, give Desmond $100m or start Trea Turner and live with the growing pains? 1:00 Dan Szymborski: Simmons trade. 1:00 Dan Szymborski: The Angels are a win-now team. Simmons is the best player now. 1:01 Comment From ForsythAfter the haul the Sox sent to the Padres for Kimbrel, aren’t they pot committed, and almost have to be the favorite for Price? Seems like they almost have to sign him to make much sense of this deal. Otherwise, they’ve overpaid for, admittedly, the best closer in baseball, but they still have a huge hole of a rotation, so they can’t let themselves get outbid. Am I thinking about this wrong?? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: I suspect that they add one of the top 3 starters. My money would be on Cueto. 1:02 Comment From TimOn the Phils question, isn’t the tiebreaker who takes less money so you can spread it around elsewhere in the draft? 1:02 Dan Szymborski: That’s not always easy to know ahead of time except in some very specific cases. 1:02 Comment From DruidifulWhy was there no president brawl today? 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Not at home and on my laptop 1:02 Comment From MetHeadWhat would you do with Cuddyer? I don’t think Mets would want to keep paying 12+mill for a part time player. What organization would he fit in with at this point in his career. 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Amway. 1:03 Dan Szymborski: There’s nobody that should be interested in paying $12 million to play Cuddyer. 1:03 Comment From KermitCan the Padres trade Kemp to the Orioles or Indians without attaching Ross? Maybe taking a bad contract back? 1:04 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there are enough bad contracts to take back 1:05 Dan Szymborski: I rather have J.J. Hardy *and* Ubaldo Jimenez at 4/52 total than Matt Kemp’s remaining deal. I’d rather have Chris Johnson at 2/17 than Matt Kemp’s remaining deal. 1:06 Comment From 976I despise the DH. Rather than bringing it to the NL, what are the chances we just get even teams in the leagues so daily inter-league play isn’t necessary? Isn’t that a win for everyone? 1:06 Dan Szymborski: None. They just evened up the leagues to *make* this happen. 1:06 Comment From Blue Catzips q: if a player has 500 regular season PA and 30 post season PA, does zips just treat it like 530 PA in the year 2015 for projection purposes? That would seem consistent with your stance that there is nothing special about playoff performance. 1:07 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS will still prorate the 530 total PA into 500 PA. 1:07 Comment From VanExcellentIf you are the Dodgers and Arte Moreno offered to trade you MIke Trout for pennies on the dollar, but the catch was that you had to play Adrian Gonzalez at SS for the entire season, would you end up being worse off as a team? 1:08 Dan Szymborski: Interesting thought exercise. I think I may do that, depending on how few pennies. 1:08 Comment From L. ScottWhy wouldn’t the DH come up at the CBA? Who decides the issues discussed there? I would think at least some NL owners would be open to adding it. 1:08 Dan Szymborski: Recent CBAs have involved changing as little as possible. 1:08 Dan Szymborski: And any changes more than minor have involved screwing over amateurs, who aren’t part of the MLBPA 1:09 Comment From Zac in TempeThrow out Bell, make it $30 million. Same answer? 1:09 Dan Szymborski: Freeman at 6/90 for Glasnow? I think we’re getting to the point at which they might consider it at least 1:09 Comment From 976Since you’re my go-to for baseball happenings and opinions on a daily basis, who is yours? What website do I need to read daily that I’m not? 1:10 Dan Szymborski: There’s baseball stuff everywhere! For obvious reasons, I will tell you to visit ESPN and FanGraphs. 1:10 Dan Szymborski: and Twitter is super-useful if you like sports opinions 1:10 Comment From Sgt. PepperBefore I enter this chat can you please ensure that it won’t upset my safe space. 1:11 Dan Szymborski: Being inside Dan’s brain, which is where you are when you join my chat, isn’t just not a safe space, it’s a Dangerous Space. 1:11 Dan Szymborski: OK, since traffic is back up post-Series and I’m getting off-topic quesitons, let’s finish this chat with the Lightning Round (we’re at 110 now). 1:11 Comment From The Dude Re lanky players: I present Alex Cobb and Gumby. 1:14 Dan Szymborski: Sorry, had to reboot my computer. 1:14 Dan Szymborski: I’d tell you guys that I needed to reboot, but if I was able to, I would not have needed to reboot. 1:14 Comment From DruidifulHave you read Patrick Rothfuss’s books and/or watched his recent streams of Fallout 4? I believe that you would like his sense of humor. 1:15 Dan Szymborski: I have not. I don’t usually watch streams of games that I’m going to play that would involve Spoilers. 1:15 Dan Szymborski: OK, the rules of the Lightning Round are simple: I must answer any question, no matter how preposterous or how little insight I even have of the question, so long as it’s not like something really explicit or work-related. 1:16 Dan Szymborski: And we will now commence. 1:16 Comment From DerekWould you rather live as an android or a human? 1:16 Dan Szymborski: An android, assuming that these are Data-level androids and not roombas or something 1:16 Dan Szymborski: Just to make it clear, I must answer any *off-topic* question. We finshed our baseball chat! 1:16 Comment From DruidifulWhat do you think of the new Explorer League Expansion? The fights seem much easier so far than previous adventures. 1:17 Dan Szymborski: The fights were definitely easier. The heroics were rather easy. Nothing like a couple of the heroics I had trouble with in Naxx. 1:18 Comment From DJbetter of the next 2 years David Wright or Alex Rodriguez 1:18 Dan Szymborski: Still say Wright 1:18 Comment From FrankYour most anticipated video game of 2016? 1:18 Dan Szymborski: No Man’s Sky 1:18 Comment From Ronda RouseyStill excited to see me in WWE? 1:19 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that Rousey would be fun in WWE post-UFC simply because WWE has never really used women well. 1:19 Comment From L. ScottHow much money would you have to be paid if the only video games you are allowed to play for the rest of your life are on the Atari 2600?(you would have every cartridge) 1:19 Dan Szymborski: We would have to be over a million, I think. 1:19 Comment From MattHey Dan…If you were a hotdog…and you were starving to death…would you eat yourself? 1:19 Dan Szymborski: I would hope not, but you never know what happens in cases of extreme hunger. 1:20 Comment From DerekWhat’s the most illegal thing Dan Szymbor has done? 1:20 Dan Szymborski: I do not know Dan Szymbor. You would have to ask him. 1:20 Comment From The DudeHow many years does one live before he can no longer die a hero, and must become a villain? 1:20 Dan Szymborski: You can always be a hero. 1:20 Comment From NXT Womens DivisionDo we not count as WWE? 1:20 Dan Szymborski: I doubt they’d hire someone as high-profile as Rousey and not use her in WWE. 1:20 Comment From FrankYour biggest fear regarding climate change is____ 1:21 Dan Szymborski: Falling. I’m not going to become any braver about fear of falling if the earth is hotter. 1:21 Comment From The DudeDo you want to play a game? 1:21 Dan Szymborski: Sure 1:21 Comment From mapsamountainrangeWhen you’ve eaten at a restaurant before, do you tend to order the same thing as the first time if you liked it or do you tend to try new things? 1:22 Dan Szymborski: I like to try new things. 1:22 Comment From The DudeDo you read XKCD? 1:22 Dan Szymborski: At times 1:22 Comment From The DudeWhat is a greater threat to the world: a Martian invasion or a Venusian invasion? 1:22 Dan Szymborski: Venusian invasion. The technology needed to be a full-functioning civilization on Venus is more advanced than that needed to exist on Mars, so logically, the Venusians would have more advanced weapons 1:22 Comment From FrankDo you play any baseball games? Like OOTP or the show? Also, do you have a classical baseball game you like playing once in a while? 1:23 Dan Szymborski: I play both OOTP and The Show and I occasionjally play Baseball Stars. 1:23 Comment From MikeWho do you think a) should win and b) will win the WWE Championship at Survivor Series? My answers: a) Cesaro or Owens, b) Reigns. 1:24 Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see Ambrose defeat Reigns 1:24 Comment From DerekWhat’s the most illegal thing Dan Szymborski has ever done? Your chat software eats up letters when an answer is posted! 1:24 Dan Szymborski: Drug-related. 1:24 Comment From A catCommercial for MLB: Harperband Papelbon as Odd Couple. Or performing a scene from No Exit. 1:24 Comment From DruidifulWould you rather be a hero or a villain in a story? 1:24 Dan Szymborski: I’m more of a villain than a hero. 1:25 Comment From L. ScottYou are given a voucher for a free vacation anywhere in the world after the hot stove and before spring training for a week. Where do you choose to go? 1:25 Dan Szymborski: New Zealand. I go on plenty vacations, but I’ve never been to that part of the world. While I could go now if I wanted, I think I need something to be free to give me the motivation to be on planes that long 1:26 Comment From The DudeHow about a nice game of chess? Pawn to D4. 1:26 Dan Szymborski: 2. f5. If it ain’t Dutch, it ain’t much. 1:26 Comment From Willy in Nashville% chance for each of the following that they are alive: Tupac, Elvis, Jim Morrison, Andy Kaufman 1:26 Dan Szymborski: Approaching 0%, approaching 0%, approaching 0%, approaching 0%. 1:26 Comment From DerekWhen was the last time you chewed Big League Chew? 1:26 Dan Szymborski: Early 90s. 1:26 Comment From some guywas Jar-Jar the real Phantom Menace? 1:27 Dan Szymborski: Yes 1:27 Comment From 976Why haven’t you read Rothfuss? Best author out there. Just a PSA for everone reading. 1:27 Dan Szymborski: I will jot this down. I have noeugh to read if I live to be a 1000. Which seems unliekly 1:27 Comment From ChristianAre there a lot of gamers at ESPN? 1:28 Comment From 976Do you want to take over a team in our DMB league? Admittedly, you’d have an edge, but I think we could overlook that if you were forced to play as a different real-life insane GM persona each month. 1:28 Dan Szymborski: Too much of a COI 1:29 Comment From The DudeWhich James Bond villain relates to you the most? 1:29 Dan Szymborski: Goldfinger mainly because if I ever get an intern, I want the internet to have a bladed hate he or she can kill people with 1:29 Comment From The DudeWhat is the better movie: Star Trek: Wrath of Khan or Galaxy Quest? 1:29 Dan Szymborski: I like the latter, but the former is the better movie. 1:29 Comment From MattIs the FG chat your favorite part of the day, or favorite part of the week? 1:29 Dan Szymborski: Day 1:29 Comment From DerekWho do you prefer in the democratic presidential race? 1:30 Dan Szymborski: Clinton 1:30 Comment From The DudeWhat’s your favorite empire in world history? 1:30 Dan Szymborski: Byzantines 1:30 Comment From some guyDairy Queen Ice Cream Cake or Friendly’s Watermelon roll? 1:30 Dan Szymborski: I’m not huge on ice cream 1:30 Comment From some guyTI-85 or TI-82 graphing calculator? 1:30 Dan Szymborski: TI-82. I never had an 85, so the familiarity would be less. I had a TI-82 in high school and got a TI-92 before my freshman year 1:30 Dan Szymborski: of college 1:30 Comment From The DudeAnagram based proof Elvis is alive and a warlord: Elvis; Lives; Evil. 1:30 Comment From Phillies113Muffins or cupcakes? 1:31 Dan Szymborski: Muffins. I don’t eat a lot of sweets. 1:31 Comment From DruidifulIf you could travel back in time, what would be the first thing you did? 1:31 Dan Szymborski: Buy Google stock. 1:31 Comment From Eddie from ChicagoMusically speaking (not influence): Pearl Jam or Nirvana or Alice in Chains or Soundgarden 1:31 Dan Szymborski: Nirvana 1:31 Comment From SeanI second Rothfuss. Kingkiller’s Chronicles is an amazing series (if the third book will ever come out) 1:31 Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I have the heart to start another series if the author is slothful. 1:32 Comment From The DudeYou gain control of a Death Star. What planet or moon do to you blow up first? 1:32 Dan Szymborski: Pluto. End the planet/non-planet controversy 1:32 Comment From 976Do you like Doctor Who? 1:32 Dan Szymborski: Never really got into it 1:33 : 1:33 Comment From armuffins are cupcakes, basically. 1:33 Dan Szymborski: Liar. 1:33 Comment From The DudeA gang war breaks out between the Physics, Chemistry, and Biology departments at MIT. Who do you join? 1:33 Dan Szymborski: Chemistry. They probably have access to the nastiest stuff. 1:33 Comment From The Shockmaster“I’m not huge on ice cream.” – Dan S. Confirmed Robot 1:33 Dan Szymborski: I find ice cream too cold. 1:33 Comment From MattTI-89s are the most superior 1:33 Comment From 976Kingkiller is a trilogy and the third book is nearly done. You can spare the time for this one. Also, the story is better than George RR Martin’s. 1:33 Comment From GuestBernie or Donald? 1:34 Dan Szymborski: Depends which party looks like they will have the Senate. Assuming that a bullet to the brain is not a legal answer to this question, Trump if Democrats are favored to take the Senate, Sanders if Republicans are favored to keep the Senate. 1:34 Comment From Phillies113Muffins are kind of sweets, though 1:34 Dan Szymborski: But they’re less sweet typically 1:35 Comment From The DudeFavorite Weird Al parody? 1:35 Dan Szymborski: Bob 1:35 Dan Szymborski: And that finishes it. 1:35 Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, I have two other hearthstone baseball cards I didn’ tpost 1:35 Comment From aryou think the status quo is so good that your preference is for nothign to get done over the next eight years? 1:35 Dan Szymborski: (Only because this is a follow up) 1:36 Dan Szymborski: No, but I prefer the status quo over anything either of those doofuses (doofi?) want to do. 1:36 : 1:36 : 1:37 Comment From The DudePlural it is Doofuses 1:37 Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find me at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.