Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/21/16

12:01
Dan Szymborski: MAKE CHAT GO NOW.

12:01
Matt: What could Jorge Soler bring back in a trade?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Not all that much these days as even though he’s young, he hasn’t taken a step forward and hasn’t even been all that healthy. It’d be sell low now for sure.

12:03
Matt: Would a trade of Soler, Eloy, Candelario, and Cease be enough for Archer?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: I think the Rays would actually take that. Soler’s shine is off, but there’s a lot oto like in that trade.

12:04
Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: What’s your take on the Rays-Mariners trade?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, mostly a shuffle of role players.

12:04
Matt M: Joey Gallo and Cole Ragans for Vince Velasquez

12:05
Dan Szymborski: If the Rangers trade Gallo, I suspect it’s someone with more certainty but a lower ceiling.

12:05
Ronnie: Cleveland was the only small market/revenue team in the playoffs this year. Is this a one year blip or is the ever shrinking information gap making it that much harder for the poorer teams to compete?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s too soon to draw conclusions. Remember, some of the advantages rebuilding teams have to gain value on the rebuild are built-in, no matter what the information gap is

12:06
Dan Szymborski: As long as small market teams can get low-cost assets that are cost-controlled through baseball’s mechanisms, small markets can leverage rebuilds into quality teams.

12:06
Roadhog: Could the A’s sign Fowler, Moss, and Thames and just roll into 2017 with every prospect intact?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: They could, but it seems rather uninspiring to make the team older and more expensive just to make a run at 79 wins.

12:07
Ronnie: With the wildly divergent nature of DRS/UZR how impressive is it that JJ Hardy has ranked positively by both systems in every one of his 12 seasons with the exception of DRS in 2010?

12:07
Dan Szymborski: DRS/UZR isn’t highly divergent, there’s a high correlation between the two. There are *some* disagreements, but they mostly agree.

12:07
Buck Saltwater: What would the framework of an Adam Eaton trade look like?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: No Jerry Reinsdorf. I don’t believe they have the willingness or patience to do a full rebuild.

12:08
cheese: Would a package from the Dodgers of Alvarez, Buehler, Verdugo, and Calhoun be enough for Sale? Ie, could they get him without including DeLeon and Bellinger? DeLeon seems like he’s going to be an important piece for a win-now club this year, and Bellinger’s timeline lines up perfectly with AGon’s departure in two years, so seems like it would particularly hurt to lose those two. Is 4 top-100 prospects, including two big upside arms, enough?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I think you’re going to have to include DeLeon. And again, going back to the White Sox, I’m not sure they’re at the point at which they’ll really trade Sale for a realistic package.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re still at the stage at which they’re going “Oh, we’ll totally move Sale, because presumably we’ll get something crazy like Benitendi/Moncada/Devers/Kopech/Travis/Groome!”

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Benintendi

12:10
Dan Szymborski: sorry

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Benintentional mistake.

12:11
Ronnie: Dylan Bundy made 1.8 million last year on the final season of the MLB contract he signed after being drafted but he isn’t eligible for Arbys until 2019. How much can/will the O’s cut his salary next year?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: 1.8 correct? Thought it was like 1.2/1.3. Regardless, the maximum salary cut from a previous season is 20%.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: (for a player not yet eligible for arbitration)

12:12
Dan Szymborski: Would be kinda poor long-term thinking to try to cut an actual contributor to save 250K just because they have the ability to do so

12:12
v2micca: Okay, what does St. Louis see in Brett Cecil that I’m missing. I get that by projected WAR, its pretty close to market value, but 4 years on something as volatile as a relief pitcher? I thought St. Louis was generally one of those teams good at finding surplus value in their signings. I’m not seeing any here.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: I think the issue you’ll see a lot is that teams will have trouble squeezing out value in FA signings, so when they choose to make one, it’ll be pricey

12:13
TomBruno23: Thoughts on the Brett Cecil signing (another spider for the K classroom)?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Slightly more than ZiPS would pay (4/24, which includes LI) but you’re going to see quite a bit of this. We’ll see if/when Matheny misuses Cecil as a loogy.

12:15
Elton: Everyone is predicting Jason Heyward will bounce back with the bat at least somewhat in 2017. What this question presupposes is: what if he doesn’t? When does it stop being too soon for the Cubs to give up, eat some salary to let another team try and fix him, and reclaim that spot in the lineup for someone who can hit?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Well, if he doesn’t bounce back at all, the contract is one of the worst contracts in MLB history.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: Fate is cruel – not every disaster contract was ill conceived

12:18
Jorge: Where do the angels go at second base?, no trade chips and horrible free agent class

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they even know at this point.

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I can see thetm going after Chase Utley

12:18
Chuncey Wiggins: What MLB award is the closest in spirit to a glorified participation trophy?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: MVP maybe since there’s this weird obsession with saddling a player with their team’s quality there?

12:19
v2micca: Back injuries are no joke. Even though he cam back strong, how concerned should be be for the long-term health prospects of Kershaw? Should LA look to lessen his workload in 2017?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s a reason to be over-concerned. *yet*

12:20
Matt M: Does Knapp become the Phillies backup catcher just because of 40 man roster spots being unavailable for an addition?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: The Phillies have shuffled a *lot* of their 40 man. I owuldn’t write it in pen.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Though it seems likely right now as I don’t think they start Alfaro in majors without giving him job

12:21
Don: Where does Utley go? Chances he goes to one of the LA teams?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Pretty good I think.

12:21
Jason: Will the reds be able to rid themselves of them Phillips contract? What are the best fits?

12:22
Dan Szymborski: They’ve been trying, but remember he threw a wrench in the Nats trade

12:23
Dan Szymborski: It’s one of life’s ironies that Phillips was one of the most valuable Nats anyway.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Since it was only after he turned down the trade that they really turned to Dan Murphy

12:23
Chris: Who will be a better player in 2017: Granderson or Bruce?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Granderson

12:24
Logan: Is Scooter Gennett a non-tender canidate? Who would have interest in him?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: I think they go Arb1 with him at least.

12:24
D: Looking back to the dodgers 2015 international spending, do you think they will end up better having taken the path they took, signing Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Omar Estevez, Starling Heredia and Ronny Brito? Or would have come out more on top just simply blowing by the limit the previous year and signing Yoan Moncada, something reports say they seriously considered?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: May not be working out, but I think with international prospects, you’ll still do better in the long-run going for quantity on these types

12:25
Roadhog: Gray + Vogt for Inciarte + Newcomb + anyone seems like a slam dunk for both sides, IMO

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Gray’s trade value has collapsed.

12:25
Elton: Last week Dave predicted that the Cubs would look to fill center field by trading for a veteran, and later suggested they might be looking at Ellsbury (assuming some salary relief from NY). What do you think? Even if Fowler becomes too expensive and they don’t believe Heyward will be a plus CF, I don’t see why they would tie themselves to a declining hitter with four years left on his contract.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: They *might* look at Ellsbury, but they’re going to need a lot to be eaten – they’re not stupid.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I still suspect they’re going wait-and-see with Heyward CF as the fallback

12:27
D: In your estimation, what’s your best guess as to what the Dodgers end up with at 2nd and 3rd base in 2017?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I suspect they bring back Justin Turner in the end and use Kiké

12:27
Rob: Let’s assume Sale is traded in the next few weeks, is it a mistake to hold onto Quintana? It seems like a mistake to hold onto him. I understand he has four years of control versus three for Sale, but why keep him if Sale goes??

12:28
Dan Szymborski: Mostly because the White Sox prefer to be the Diamondbacks or pre-summer Padres.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: The FA market is weak enough and the lack of big help in the minors means, I think the jig is up in Chicago.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Out of time for half-measures. It’s like your house being on fire and deciding to just put out half of it.

12:29
Ned Yost: What would you think about the Astros going trading for Lorenzo Cain or AJ Pollack as the last piece of their puzzle?

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Always depends on the price. Not sure Arizona in mood to sell low on Pollock.

12:30
Dan Szymborski: Nor is KC likely to go full rebuild until after 2017

12:30
Gary: Is Matt Harvey’s career over? 🙁

12:30
Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t say that

12:30
Bork: The Padres, Athletics, and Rays are apparently all interested in Thames. Doesn’t the Rays make the most sense for him? Hard to showcase his donger power in pitcher stadiums.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I should note that ZiPS translates Thames KBO performance at 240/313/464. He’s nothing more than a lotto ticket for a team that can’t do better.

12:32
I have a great: Hi Dan, how do you think officiating in the MLB compares to that which occurs in the NBA/NFL?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Actually might be better since there are fewer judgment calls.

12:32
Fat Kenny G: How can you justify the people’s insistence of Cleveland changing their logo/team name, yet every year around this time literally millions of innocent turkeys are murdered in the name of a “tradition” of giving thanks with those same Native People that we are systematically eradicating by ignoring them and their plight? Eno said that it’s a false equivalence of Turkeys and Humans, but if you go back far enough we share a common ancestor.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: If you go back far enough *everything* has a common ancestor.

12:33
Ethan: Hey Dan. Now that the AFL is over and done with, how much importance do you think the average team assigns to a prospect’a performance in that league? On the one hand, it’s less than 100 PA for pretty much everyone, and on the other it’s nominally against the best competition the minors have to offer. How much should teams take away from a great performance in the AFL, or a terrible one?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I think they look more for specific developmental things than the performance itself.

12:33
Roadhog: Do the A’s and Marlins match up on a Ozuna trade?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t seem all that practical

12:33
GSon: Napoli’s loss will be big for the Indians.. you see anyone they might target in his stead?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Really, Napoli wasn’t actually all that good.

12:34
Pirate Fishing: So, once and for all, Dan…where is Andrew McCutchen in 2017, and whatt did the Bucs get out of it?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Bucs trade him this year, though I think they should

12:35
Bill: Gleyber Torres is destroying the AFL. Yankees have the best system in baseball?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: They certainly have a case. I’d actually say yes.

12:35
Roadhog: How impressed are you by Frankie Montas? Also, the Hill/Reddick trade was highway robbery; all of Holmes, Montas, and Cotton have looked exceptional since coming over.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: I’m a Montas fan.

12:35
Pete: In a potential White Sox-Nats trade involving Chris Sale, what would the Sox have to include to get Trea Turner along with Giolito, Robles and Fedde?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think this is happening.

12:36
Dan Szymborski: It just doesn’t match up to the Nats strengths and weaknesses.

12:37
v2micca: True or false, the Braves late season surge will end up being one of the worse things that could have happened to them?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: True, if they do take it too seriously.

12:37
Dan Szymborski: But Atlanta’s in a very dangerous place.

12:37
I am the Walrus: How many team would be interested in ChiSox Abreau?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: There would be a good bit of interest

12:37
jon: Theo has $50 million to spend and a roster without glaring holes. If you are Theo, what are you spending on?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: This isn’t a good year to have $50 million to spend.

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Mostly tinkering.

12:37
Julio Pepper: Not trading Freddie Freeman is unjustifiable right? What kind of haul could they get for him?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: They’d get a lot for him, and I think they really need to.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Yes, it’s literally true the Braves have a chance to compete when they still have him

12:39
Dan Szymborski: But what it comes down to is it only take a year or two of rebuilding and Freeman bringing no real practical utility to really tank a player’s value

12:39
Joe Don: Rangers’ FO is trying to sustain consistent, sustained results over the long haul, vs the now-popular tank-and-rebuild model of BOS, CHC, PHI, ATL etc. Is their approach even possible any more?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: It is possible wh en you have a good MLB system and a good minor league system simultaneously.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: The problem is when teams try to do it without having one of those things first.

12:40
Ross Not The Boss: Orioles offseason looks to head on the same direction as always. Sign fringe players, wait for prices to drop and jump on those left in late January. My guess is O’s bring in Iannetta, Suanders, Bourne and Bass on one year deals and let Wieters/Trumbo walk. Very post-2014-esque. Do you see this senario as most likely or would you peg last years spending spree likely to continue?

12:40
Dan Szymborski: What would you want to spend spree on practically speaking outside of Cespedes?

12:40
CamdenWarehouse: What does ZiPS do with Thames’s Korea line?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: We have a decent number of churning at various levels. I get roughly AA for KBO

12:41
v2micca: If the MLBPA was hypothetically interested in shortening service time in the next CBA, would they be able to get it done without a strike?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: No

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Or they’d have to give up something MAJOR

12:41
Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: If the rosters expand to 26, who benefits most? Part-time players and people with big platoon splits?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: People who like watching stupid relief pitcher shuffling

12:42
Harry Truman was a Haberdasher: Hamels w/ 4 yrs control netted Eickhoff, Thompson, Alfaro, Williams…seems like good comp for Sale w/ 3yrs control…solid return but hardly in realm of Giolito/Moncada/Benintendi/etc…is this because Phils opted for diversification whereas Sox might want top-end talent?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Hamels had signifricant salary considerations.

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Hamels had considerable surplus value, but that money still counts.

12:42
Jim Lonborg: What are you expecting the Red Sox to do this winter? Am I wrong to think it might be a lot less than what a lot of people seem to be expecting–something like signing a power guy to a short-term contract and picking up some relievers?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: That’s about what I expect.

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Because since the market sucks, everybody’s doing less than what some people seem to expect.

12:43
GSon: Brandon Phillips and Mike Lorenzen to the Dodgers for Yasiel Puig.. who says no to the deal?.

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Dodgers. They may not be happy with Puig’s performance, but there’s nothing really interesting to them.

12:44
Ross Not The Boss: How can we Orioles fans make Adam Jones see reason? He needs to shift to RF soon (like now) and let the Orioles bring in a more capable CF (I.e. Jay, Gomez)

12:44
Dan Szymborski: Not sure I’d include Jay as an example. I don’t think it’s happening.

12:44
v2micca: I don’t see the Red Sox ever trading Moncada. Not only is he a top prospect, but Dombrowski seems like the kind of guy to fall prey to the sunk cost fallacy, and they payed around $62 million to acquire Moncada.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: In this case, it wasn’t his cost so I doubt he’d be concerned that much about that personally.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: I think they hang onto Moncada simply because it looks like he panned out.

12:46
A cat: What would a Cabrera to BOS trade look like, if the Sox used Sandoval’s remains $58mm as salary ballast?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Tigers are at the point that they do a Cabrera trade that another team could justify

12:47
Minty: Since he’s no longer on a team, is/was ZiPS a fan of Jon Singleton?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: It never really liked him more than a high 90s/low 100s OPS+ guy

12:47
jon: The Yankees are talking about adding Jason Hammel. Given his propensity for long-balls and the short porch, is this an obviously bad match?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t be my pick.

12:47
Glasnow Half Full: What is the most likely reason the Cubs don’t win the NL Central in ’17?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Chance. Lots of things can go wrong easily.

12:48
Sean: Do players bring back bigger returns in the off-season or at the deadline?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Depends.

12:48
Lord: Vlad, HoF or not (in your opinion)?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:48
Dan Szymborski: But the BBWAA vote is ridiculously poor, so who the hell knows

12:49
Lord: Vlad Guerrero: 54 career fWAR
Kiki Cuyler: 53 career fWAR

I have no idea who Kiki Cuyler was until I looked that up

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Cuyler was a very significant player!

12:49
Ross Not The Boss: Would adding Ian Desmond on a five year pact be wisest free agent investment Orioles could make this offseason? Could play role in OF in 2017 then transition to 3B once Hardy leaves as FA. Would provide a leadoff presence and menace on the basepaths.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Not sure if wisest. I’d be uneasy at 5 years

12:49
RABBINICAL COLLEGE GUY: Your guess to where Fowler ends up?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I think he ends up back in Chicago

12:49
Jay: Listen, I think we can all agree that Bryant was and is great, but Markakis not receiving one vote? Blasphemy!

12:49
Dan: Regarding Hernandez at 2nd for the Dodgers, do you see him as a full time player or in some sort of platoon? I didn’t see a lot to be excited for from him this past year

12:50
Dan Szymborski: He showed a lot before 2016

12:50
EC: If you squint could you see Scherzer in the HOF?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: In a world in which actually deserving to be in the HOF was a significant factor in induction, sure.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: But we’re in this dumb world in which Mussina/Schilling, easy first-balloters, aren’t going to get in by the BBWAA vote.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: There are simply too many voters that aren’t really analysis people or expert baseball history people.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Award votes *tend* to be somewhat better as many of the local chairpersons will pick the members that are inclined to do a good job.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Though that’s hardly perfect.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: The vote still needs serious reforms, even if they end up with me being less likely to vote than I currently am

12:53
I am the Walrus: What would a WSox trade for Abreu look like? Top 50 pitching prospect plus a could of lottery tickets?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: That’s probably about right. Back part of top 50

12:54
Joe: what are teams going to do with a 26th roster spot

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Relief

12:54
EC: Don’t think the Nats Zips have come out yet, but at this point should Ryan Zimmerman be a bench player? Could fill in at 1b and LF (and maybe RF), but a lot of $$ to ride the pine.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Nats ZiPS are first team so no sense in leaking yet!

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Cistulli, Devourer of Light and Goodness, already has them for instance.

12:54
@RationalMLBfan: Any update on David Szymborski’s shopping habits? Has he ordered anything interesting lately, or are you expecting a flood of confirmation emails next week following Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: David Szymborski has not ordered anything with my email address recently.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know if it’s because he figured out or if he read the gift card.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: For those unware, David Szymborski in North Carolina has been ordering Nerf gun from Wal-Mart and Amazon with my Gmail address that he thinks are his.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: So I reset his Amazon password, hit cancel on his nerf order, then re-ordered with his card with a gift note informing him that DSzymborski@gmail.com is not his email address.

12:56
Chuncey Wiggins: If Turkey came in a cheese-wiz spray bottle, and was a frothy paste of poultry…would you try it?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: NO

12:56
Ross Not The Boss: I’d there anything in the Orioles farm system which could entice the Pirates to move Cutch?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: No.

12:56
Sean: Should the Dbacks trade Segura? Do you see there being a market for him? Dodgers and Yankess stand out.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: No, but yes.

12:57
Carter Gary: Did Goldschmidt peak or can hold it together this year?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: May have peaked, but he should still be excellent

12:57
Ross Not The Boss: Next competing team to collapse (i.e. Athletics-2015, Twins, KC-2016)?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays are in a very dangerous place.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: Though Tigers will fall apart first.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: (Which I think they realize)

12:58
Julio Pepper: Could they get Benintendi or Moncada + for Freeman?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think Dombrowski would be more willing than the previous crowd

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Not both of course

12:58
Tony: Lets say the White Sox do a complete tear down and rebuild. Can they get enough in return to immediately have a top 5 farm system by trading all their best MLB assets?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: I think yes.

12:58
jon: Boston never intentionally tanked. They had 3 horrible seasons in four, sure, but they also didn’t pay Hanley and Panda $200 million to produce negative 4 war in 2015.

The Cubs chose not to take a 71 win team and try to add on it with no farm in place.

12:58
Julio Pepper: Hamels came with Matt Harrison too.

12:59
TomBruno23: What should the Cardinals do with Alex Reyes to start 2017?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Rotation, period.

12:59
Buzzed27: Joe Panik posted an 89 wRC+ in 2016 with a .245 BABIP. This was propped up by the worst batting average on line drives in baseball. In 2015 panik posted a 136 wRC+ on the back of a .330 BABIP. Do you take the over or under on his depth charts projected 104 wRC+?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: That looks about right honestly

12:59
Andrew: Assuming full health, who wins NL East next year? Mets or Nats?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Nats still

12:59
Slew: Turkey or ham?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: On Thanksgiving it’s gotta be Turkey

12:59
rustydude: Why did the Yankees cut Eovaldi? Which team ends up with Eo?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Would love to see him end upw ith the Pirates

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Though the Cubs will probably get him and turn him into a Cy Young guy himself just bc

1:00
nmandarano: If you REALLY squint, could you see Darnell Sweeney in the Hall of Fame? Maybe one day?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: I’m sure he can buy a ticket.

1:00
Slew: Morals clause important to HOF voting, or should be ignored?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t mind it if it was applied fairly by the people who take it highly seriously

1:01
Jordan: Why does anyone still give a crap about anything the BBWAA votes for?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Because baseball is cool and we want there to be awards worthy of the people who play baseball

1:01
smaliga24: Can you name one player more underrated than Nolan Arenado?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t he second in the All_Star voting for NL 3B? That suggests to me that he’s at least rated now.

1:02
Dan: How much does it break your heart that Kershaw put up 6.5 wins in 150 innings?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Much

1:03
Dan Szymborski: This may seem weird, but Mike Trout is underrated.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: There are a lot of people who think he’s just a regular star.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Though I wouldn’t call him most underrated

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Most underrated right now? May be someone like Kyle Seager or Christian Yelich. Maybe Starling Marte?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: It’s always a tricky Q because it depends on who is doing the rating

1:05
CamdenWarehouse: you were able to get first initial and last name at gmail? Good job.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like my last name is Smith

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I had a super low ICQ number too!

1:05
Ted: Why the new like and dislike graphic in the comments section? I loved the previous one.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Ask Daves, not me!@

1:05
Grover likes starfish: Who has the reputation as the biggest butthole in MLB?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Pierzynski

1:06
Spencer: Opinions on Civ 6?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Fun game, well put together.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: The worker management kinda annoys me though

1:06
Dan Szymborski: I feel too often I’m simply micromanaging those dumbass little builders instead of working on my grand strategy

1:06
A cat: Have you tried the turkey and gravy flavored potato chips, or the stuffing and gravy flavored ones?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: No

1:07
Jeff in T.O.: Porcello, Cy Young winner. Still sounds weird. Worst choice ever, or worstest choice ever?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: He had a leigitimately excellent season

1:07
baltic wolf: In the tumult of this year’s election cycle and its aftermath I’ve lost track with what’s happening with the world chess championship in NYC between Carlsen and Karajakin. I don’t play anymore but am still interested. Have u followed it and which player do you like the most?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: I’m really behind on chess right now.

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Though I’ve been following the draws

1:08
smaliga24: Nolan Arenado wasn’t even a finalist for the NL MVP! COREY SEAGER was there over him! This is the first time since 2010 (Joey Votto) where the MVP lost both the Gold Glove AND Silver Slugger! Oh…I forgot…he plays for Colorado…my bad…

1:09
Dan Szymborski: You do realize that Seager’s fWAR/bWAR average was higher than Arenado’s?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: You can make a case that he could’ve been top 3, but you can also make a reasonable one he was 4 or 5

1:09
Bun: How does a fan deal with impending mediocrity?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Alcohol

1:09
GimmetheHeater : Pierzynski over Papelbon?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Pierzynski more disliked by players

1:09
botchatheny : is ghandi still an ass in civ?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t backed up his words WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS for me yet

1:10
Gopherballs: Speed round Westworld theory: Everybody is a human. Advances in neurological manipulation (or even hypnosis) make it possible to control others. Hosts can die over and over again thanks to Star Trek like advances in medicine. How plausible is this on a scale of 1 to Bo Derek?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, it’s on my viewing list but haven’t watched yte

1:10
ohioastrosfan: Does Keuchel have a bounce back year?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:10
JT: Avid baseball fans like Cistulli will clean up HoF voting once he gets his 10 years in

1:10
Dan Szymborski: The nerdy analysis types are still a miniority, even among new members

1:11
Twinks4Trump: How can anybody stand hearthstone with all the dumbass animation delays an similar nonsense? I watched a friend play one game and wanted to smash his tablet over his head.

1:11
Matt: I’m not necessarily diminishing Theo’s talent for building from the bottom, but could he succeed to the level he did in BOS/CHC, if he had the financial restrictions of say TB/OAK/KC/etc?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: It would’ve been tougher, but I think he’d have been successful

1:12
nmandarano: My mistake for coming to FanGraphs for actual baseball analysis. I forgot all you do here is numbers. RE: Arenado/Seager

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Then make a case

1:12
Dan Szymborski: You just made an assertion.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: The numbers indicate both are reasonable.

1:12
Dan Szymborski: here’s the thing: Baseball games are solely decided by definable events within the game.

1:13
Dan Szymborski: You argued that it was an outrage an added no argument, no insight, no point of view, that would indicate Arenado’s some horrible snub.

1:13
Bun: What if the fan in question who must deal with impending mediocrity is 18 and also does not want to drink?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Pot?

1:14
Gopherballs: Can a former MLB player become a voting member of the BBWAA?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: No reason they can’t

1:14
Dan Szymborski: Dirk Hayhurst isn’t in the BBWAA but I expect he’ll be at some point

1:16
Dan Szymborski: I’m not seeing any ex-players on the badge list

1:16
Dan Szymborski: but there’s no rule against it

1:16
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you eat a “smoothie” of mashed potatoes, gravy, and turkey? Also it comes in a cheese-wiz spray bottle, and it’s just cheese flavored.

1:16
Dan Szymborski: No

1:16
Dan Szymborski: why are you epople so gross?

1:16
JT: That was a joke, because Carson not watching baseball despite being employed by a baseball blog is humorous, also you hate Cistulli. Get with the program Dan

1:17
Bobby: What’s your outlook on A.J. Reed? Is there a middle of the order hitter there, or has a fatal flaw been exposed?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: I think people too quickly take small sample sizes seriously

1:17
Dan Szymborski: See Nelson Cruz 2006/2007

1:18
Nick S: Folks that complain about “numbers” and “math” are the folks that can’t understand “numbers” and “math”.

1:18
romorr: I feel for you Dan, I recently tried debating that Andrew Miller is just as good as Britton, and on some teams, Miller might be the better option. So many orange tinted glasses throwing around unverifable theories. It dan get frustrating.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: The Cy Young thing with Britton got me on a lot of O’s fans ship lists

1:18
Bork: I feel like Dirk Hayhurst will be the type of voter that people DON’T want in the BBWAA. He’ll use his vote to just make a point of some kind.

1:18
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he would

1:18
Dan: Best life ever: http://i.imgur.com/XjUGb89.gifv

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Already a better eye than Jeff Francoeur

1:19
Gopherballs: If a player became a voting BBWAA member, would they be allowed to vote regarding their admission to the HOF? Seems like a big conflict of interest.

1:19
Dan Szymborski: It’s extremely unlikely to happen.

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Because you have to be in the BBWAA for 10 years

1:19
Dan Szymborski: And you’re not going to get in when you just start writing

1:20
Dan Szymborski: A player who retires at 40 would probably have to work *full-time* as a writer for 15 years before they get their vote

1:20
CamdenWarehouse: Is Pat Jordan in the BBWAA?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Nto on the badget list

1:20
Fat Kenny G: Still waiting on a real answer to my turkey question. There’s outrage over a team mascot yet the actual people the mascot represents are being basically ignored. Plus the turkeys are practically slaves their entire live yet you’ll eat one because you want to continue a tradition of being thankful for being able to mass murder other animals for your pleasure?

1:21
Dan Szymborski: I’m not getting into political-type Qx

1:21
Beavis: I hate numbers, there’s like too many of them and stuff

1:21
Joe: what do you expect from pablo sandoval next year

1:21
Dan Szymborski: Not much.

1:21
Milo Yearningforabbcinanus: What do you think of twitter suspending a bunch of alt-right accounts that weren’t harassing anybody and the UK shutting down a speech by Milo? I don’t agree with them, but shutting them up that way bothers me a lot more.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: Honestly I’m uneasy with this sort of thing. You fight liars with truth and assholes with indifference.

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Blocking people for awful opinions rather than when their *conduct* demands it is something that makes me uncomfortable.

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Especially when the rules for awful, nasty opinions they block seem to be fairly arbitrary

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Do you gu ys have to get into political t ype Qs?

1:24
Slew: Furthest you’ve traveled specifically for food?

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Not far, it’s usually secondary

1:24
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you eat an entire canister of cheese-wiz to stop getting Markakis questions?

1:24
Dan Szymborski: I think so

1:26
Matt: Did you know that there are the same amount of numbers in between 1 and 2 as there are between 1.1 and 1.9?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: There are actually degrees of infinity. If we’re getting into set theory, we’re going above my pay grade

1:26
romorr: Would you allow Bundy to throw the cutter, or just forego that pitch ever being a part of his arsenal?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: Former.

1:26
smaliga24: I forgot fWAR and bWAR were the only stats that matter. I’m claiming Arenado should be in the top 3 over Seager. You can’t just throw two numbers out and call that YOUR case. I think you need to make a case too.

1:26
Dan Szymborski: That’s the default case – you have to demonstrate why numbers are wrong.

1:27
Zihuatenejo: Then how does one fight a lying asshole?

1:27
Dan Szymborski: Depends.,

1:27
Dan Szymborski: Going back, *you’re* the one saying we should ignore performance metrics. State a case or bugger off.

1:27
dbet: Szymbo Slice! How are you doing my friend?

1:27
Dan Szymborski: Fine and dandy

1:27
CamdenWarehouse: Any chance you’ll host a Baltimore Fangraphs meetup next year?

1:28
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really an organizing t yep

1:28
Slew: Rank the superheroes: Superman, Batman, Spiderman, Iron Man, Reid Fleming

1:28
Dan Szymborski: 1. Drake LaRoche

1:29
Dan Szymborski: 2. All other superheroes except for

1:29
Dan Szymborski: Last place – superheroes in dentist comics about dental hygeine

1:29
Dan Szymborski: hygiene

1:29
StackedDeck: Can the Dbacks move Tomás this offseason or are they stuck with that contract?

1:29
Dan Szymborski: He ain’t going nowhere.

1:29
Matt: If the Alt-right were to team up with both the ctrl-right and the del-right, do you think they’re be able to kill the current process?

1:29
Dan Szymborski: heh

1:29
Slew: More satisfying: picking a scab or a good poop?

1:29
Dan Szymborski: Poop?

1:29
Dan Szymborski: You people are weird.

1:30
Slew: Top 3 old school Nintendo games?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: my favorite three NES games are Final Fantasy I, Destiny of an Emperor, and River City Ransom

1:30
Dan: Who would win in a fight: Markakis or a canister of cheese-wiz?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: Well, Markakis

1:30
Matt M: Who won the Cole Hamels trade 2 years later?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: Both teams got what they needed.

1:30
Joe Don: Why do you hate Cheez Whiz?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: Wiz isn’t quite can cheese

1:30
Gopherballs: Can’t believe I missed the opportunity to pose the “player as BBWAA voter” question in terms of Nick Markakis

1:30
Bork: I hate numbers because they led to Fagerstrom leaving us.

1:30
Enzo Amore: Did you watch Lesnar-Goldberg? Brilliant, ridiculous or both?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: I think ridiculous

1:31
Dan Szymborski: Fun to see Goldberg, but it seems crappy, with so much underutilized talent, to bring in a 50-year-old dude who hadn’t wrestled in a decade to squash Lesnar

1:31
J: Markakis

1:31
Gopherballs: Steve Bartman should throw out the first pitch next year . . . for the Cardinals

1:31
Slew: Did you watch Bill Simmons’ show? Did you like it?

1:31
Dan Szymborski: I have not

1:31
Matt: If you were to try to replicate the outcome of a particularly horned pig gliding down a snowy mountain, would you call it a…sim boar ski?

1:31
Bobby: Corey Seager 137 wRC+
Nolan Arenado 124 wRC+

Put Seager in Coors for half his games and you probably get a .400 wOBA

1:31
Matt: You would be dandy….you digital dandy….

1:31
Chuncey Wiggins: Have you accepted Drake Laroche as your lord and savior?

1:31
Dan Szymborski: Of course

1:32
Gopherballs: The questions are coming from inside your house!

1:32
Dan Szymborski: You firetruckers better not be eating my brisket in the fridge. Already had galileo eating some of it.

1:32
Slew: Do you play Clash Royale?

1:32
Dan Szymborski: No

1:32
Erik: How much more money would Trumbo make as a free agent in the 90s, when people got paid for HRs more directly without looking as much at the other stats?

1:32
Dan Szymborski: Well, if you had 90s GMs, a lot

1:32
Jeb: Also, did you ever play Ikaruga or Radiant Silvergun?

1:32
Dan Szymborski: a lot

1:32
Slew: Rank the following thanksgiving side dishes: mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes, stuffing, cranberry sauce, green bean casserole.

1:33
Dan Szymborski: mashed potatoes, stuffing, cranberry, green beans……………………………………………………………………..styrofoam peanuts accidentally cooked………………………………………………………………..sweet potatoes

1:33
Joe: Do you think the MLB will ever go to Mexico City or maybe a more northern city in Mexico? Is the altitude that bad?

1:33
Dan Szymborski: Not for a long time

1:33
powder: we’ve seen the cycle of splitters, then sliders, and now curves. What’s the next trendy secondary pitch that will catch on/ make a big comeback? I guess it would have to be changeups right?

1:33
Dan Szymborski: Palmball!

1:33
Bobby: Civ 6 is disappointingly easy, the AI still can’t figure out 1UPT.

1:33
Dan Szymborski: Civ games aren’t known for amazing AI, sadly

1:33
Lou Skunt: Any chance of the Braves inviting Julio Franco to spring training? He played 7 games in the United Baseball League in 2014.

1:33
Dan Szymborski: Probably better defensively than Kemp

1:33
Gopherballs: It is funny that Deflategate ended up doing more damage to Bill Simmons than the Patriots

1:33
Justin: How long until Ellsbury’s entire stat line is composed of catcher’s interferences?

1:33
romorr: I don’t like the name Chuncey.

1:34
Bork: Thanksgiving was already last month.

1:34
Jeremy: Im learning the genetic algorithim in class at the moment how can i make this interesting by applying it to baseball?

1:34
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure

1:34
Dan Szymborski: Anyway, thanks for coming everyone!

1:34
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

1:34
Slew: Favorite word that sounds naughty, but isn’t? (Mine is skillet)

1:34
Dan Szymborski: moist

1:34
Bork: Bye, not August. Thanks for chatting!

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/21/16 by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Meir-w
Member
Meir-w

A whole chat without a question about Gsellman and Lugo. Wow.