Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/2/15

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to the OH GOD THERES NO MORE BASEBALL edition of SzymborskiChat.

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Comment From Joe
Is Dan Duquette a good GM?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably say average-plus? It’s harder these days to differential GM performance from the overall front office/ownership

Comment From TJ
Heard this is where I get my French drain tips.

Dan Szymborski: Check your inlet cleanout risers!

Comment From EC
What does zips think would be a fair extension for Bryce?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t gotten into this yet! So I don’t know. The answer would be gigantic sums of cash.

Comment From Bork
With the mediocre way the Mets played in the series, could you say they Szymborski’d it?

Dan Szymborski: Seems fair, though I think I’d mediocre it in a different way

Comment From ZIPS WAS WRONG!!

Comment From 976
For the DMBers, can Gattis get a C rating next year since the Astros have said they haven’t ruled out using him behind the plate? That’d be great, thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Hey got enough time in 2014 that he’ll still get a rating in 2016.

Comment From Chris
Should Mets offer Murphy a QO? I think he was exploited in WS to the point that another team would have to be nuts to give up a first-rounder and give him years/money.

Dan Szymborski: I still think they should. I league-average player is worth a QO. If he accepts, it’s just an overpay of a few million on a 1-year deal.

Dan Szymborski: But if he doesn’t, *you* get a draft pick or a chance to sign him at a discount (since the draft pick will be factored into costs)

Comment From EC
so who was right… Nats on Stras or Mets on Harvey?

Dan Szymborski: I’m, not sure it’s a choice they were drafted fifferent years

Comment From LarryA
From watching the playoffs, i noticed alot of (mostly mets) pitchers have really long laces on their gloves. Is that supposed to be distracting to hitters?

Dan Szymborski: To be honest, I’ve never actually given this any thought before

Dan Szymborski: Now, there was an issue where MLB felt it was intefering with close replays, but never heard about the batters

Comment From mtsw
Carl Crawford for Ubaldo Jimenez and enough cash to even out of the contracts (~$15M). Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: If the contracts were balanced out to be the same, I think it would be reasonable for both teams

Comment From 976
Did Terry Collins lose the World Series or was it Daniel Murphy?

Dan Szymborski: Terry Collins made some poor decisions, but in the end, it comes down to execution and the Mets executed quite poorly in some really crucial moments.

Comment From Phillip
What about the AFL? That’s good baseball, right? Have you heard about anyone impressing out there?

Dan Szymborski: Still early! AFL is fun for the prospects, but it’s not the same as MLB.

Comment From Gabe
I’m shocked by the # of writers/smart fans defending Collins’ decision to leave Harvey in, even for the start of the 9th. I can think of no good reason not to bring in a rested Familia who had looked basically lights out during the playoffs when not being forced to pitch from the stretch while cleaning up somebody else’s mess.

Dan Szymborski: Harvey was cruising, I think it was reasonable to start him in the 9th. However, he should never have pitched to Hosmer.

Dan Szymborski: Just a heads-up, I will be answering much slower for like a 10-minute period as I do have one scheduled radio hit during this chat (I normally schedule around but goofed here)

Dan Szymborski: (I forgot the request was in ET, not the time zone of the place!)

Comment From Owen
How much of a discount do Royals get when they try to resign Gordon? Would he really take 5/90 from Royals over 5/100 from Cubs? I get loyalty but that’s 10 million dollars. Is it less? More?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll get some, but loyalty has its limits

Comment From ZIPS WAS WRONG!!
did you enjoy the world series?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Phillip
Speaking of the AFL, what level of competition is it out there? Seems like the hitting would equate to a strong AAA level? Pitching would be closer to a weak AA squad?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve actually had trouble as it’s fairly inconsistent – haven’t yet found an approach in which the stats actually help projections.

Dan Szymborski: But that may be that I just haven’t found the answer yet

Comment From Matthew E
Is Mark Shapiro actually any good? Is he suited for the Blue Jays’ current win-now configuration?

Comment From some guy
I’m jonesing for ZiPS. When do you start publishing them?

Dan Szymborski: Usually right after Thanksgiving.

Comment From EC
Is this the offseason that someone accepts a QO?

Dan Szymborski: No.

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Comment From 976
At what inning do you use Syndergaard last night?

Dan Szymborski: Later. I use deGrom first.

Dan Szymborski: In fact, I would have had deGrom out there in the 10th. No point worrying about Tuesday if it never happens.

Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m on TSN 1290 in Winnipeg for 10 minutes or so, will still answer questiosn, but a little slower.

Comment From John
If MLB had a playoff-wide MVP(a la the Conn Smythe award), who would be your choice?

Dan Szymborski: Might still be Murphy because he was so crazy good before the Series, though it would look really weird now.

Comment From Ben
If you’re Mike Rizzo do you give Span a QO?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From mtsw
Do you buy that Hosmer only went because he knew the scouting report on Duda’s arm or do you think it was a purely instinctual play? Seems insane he’d have had time to consider the calculus of something like that in the split second he had to decide to go.

Dan Szymborski: To an extent.

Comment From 976
The projections you publish are non-park adjusted, I believe. Is there some arb there I should be exploiting when they make their way into DMB, or do you give over your magic park-adjustment numbers to unravel the stats within DMB?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS are park-adjusted!

Comment From Bork
Loyalty discount is pretty much being able to match any offer given by other teams, no?

Comment From Guest
I hope you read this and mess up in your radio gig.

Comment From Matthew E
Did your answer about Shapiro and the Jays get eaten by the chat software?

Comment From Bork
You’re ditching us for radio in WINNIPEG, Dan?? I could understand if it’s like, an actual city, but come on.

Dan Szymborski: Be nice! It’s ocld there.

Comment From 976
Since ZiPS are park adjusted, do you know if DMB unadjusts them with your park-factors, or are they left to their own devices?

Dan Szymborski: They’re in the contexst of the DMB park factors – they’re not generated as neutral

Comment From Bork
It’s okay Dan you can just publish my answers as your own since you can’t answer. For Shapiro, he’s poop since he traded away Chris Archer.

Dan Szymborski: Anytime you can get Mark DeRosa, you have to do…never mind.

Comment From The+Dude
What does ZiPS stand for? Why is the “i” lower case?

Dan Szymborski: the i is the i at the end of Szymborski

Dan Szymborski: And it’s lower case so it looks like CHiPs.

Dan Szymborski: I am not making that up.

Comment From Luke
Isn’t there not much predictive value in “cruising?” As a fan at the game, I wanted Familia but was pumped to see Harvey. After he let the lead off man on though, I don’t think anyone around me didn’t want him to be taken out.

Dan Szymborski: There may not be, but Harvey is also a really good pitcher. As I said, it makes sense to go with him and see with a 2 run isntead of a 1 run lead, but that should have been a one batter stint

Dan Szymborski: Oops, I didn’t answer my Blue Jays Q from above. Shapiro is fine, but I would have preferred to see Double A Alex Anthopoulos have been promoted to Beeston’s job

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Shapiro really changes the general direction or the organization

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t mean that Double A in the sense htat he’s a double A quality GM or anything, but in the vein of Double J Jeff Jarrett

Comment From Toronto Fan
Shapiro is going to burn down the Blue Jays, and eat their souls

Comment From Hoff
Wade Davis joins Chapman as an elite closer next year, right?

Dan Szymborski: He already did this year!

Comment From War2d2
Sorry, I’m late to the chat so you might already have answered this (or something similar). What do you see as the Cubs’ main strategy for the offseason? Theo has already stated that outfield D and starting pitching are the priorities. Two possible paths (out of, let’s be honest, infinitely many paths) are: A) sign Span to replace Fowler and also one of the big guns (Zimmermann or Cueto? Or go big with Price?), or B) deal from surplus value and acquire someone like Tyson Ross or Danny Salazar through a trade for Super Nintendo Schwarber and improving OF defense by moving an actual OF to Left (or more probably Kris Bryant, who’d probably be pretty good out there just based on athleticism). This is long winded, but basically my question is: do you think it’s in the team’s best interests to trade Schwarber? Cameron thinks this is basically his peak value, so if you’re Dave the answer is probably yes. ARE YOU DAVE?!?

Dan Szymborski: I actually have a piece on the Cubs and their main strategies over the next year or two (with some long-term projections!) in the pipeline for Wednesday.

Comment From Bork
It’s cold and the only sport they’ve got is CFL. I’d say the Jets too but it’s the Jets, which says enough.

Dan Szymborski: And I have been back BTW.

Comment From Trapper
If Brad Miller can turn into an average defensive outfielder, does his bat play well enough for a corner OF spot?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so. I lot of his value comes from his ability to play middle fineiled.

Comment From The+Dude
Super Nintendo Schwarber is an excellent nickname. I salute you War2d2!

Dan Szymborski: Jonah Keri coined it actually. I’ve been calling him Super Nintendo Schwarber since.

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Dan Szymborski: Actually, I have a Schwarber image from the postseason

Comment From War2d2
Thanks for answering the Schwarber question with an entire article! I’M HONORED!

Dan Szymborski: Heh, sorry for the excuse response, but it’s generally frowned upon if I give spoilers to pieces I’m paid to write!

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Comment From Bobby Blownilla
Mets most likely trajectory is to continue to call up prospects vs. signing big free agents. yes? Other thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so, yes.

Comment From Phil
Assuming the O’s don’t re-sign Davis and choose to keep Jones and keep or extend Machado, is Alex Gordon their best bat target? He also would shore up the corner OF defense. Then you have Pearce / C. Walker at first and I don’t know who in the other OF corner. Still need another SP and by this point they’d probably only have enough to MAYBE resign Chen or maybe a Kazmir, but that’s also a stretch.

Dan Szymborski: Alex Gordon is a good target. My concern with the O’s is that once you subtract out their offseason losses, they’re essentially like a 72-win team with $90 million payroll baked into the cake. I’m not sure they’re willing to spend enough to go into 2016 as a >85 win team on average

Comment From Postseason
Buying the “Royals as the most hated WS winner in a while” narrative?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Derek
Baseball isn’t black and white, just like life isn’t black and white. I just hope people who second guess Collins understand that they probably think with their heart more than their brain in their day to day life.

Dan Szymborski: Not my family! Once when my family was talking about a Sophie’s Choice thing, my mom freely announced that if she had to choose one kid to die it would be me because my little sister has greater average life expectancy remaining.

Comment From BK
Do you see the Jays signing Chris Davis? That would just be scary

Dan Szymborski: I *could* see it happening.

Comment From BK
Problem is we don’t get paid to think with our brains

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’m paid to think with my heart!

Comment From The+Dude
https://vimeo.com/37714632

Comment From mtsw
Has there been any reporting on whether any teams are moving fences around this offseason or taking other steps that might affect 2016 park factors?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard anything yet.

Comment From Q-Ball
ESPN’s recent layoffs seem to be the latest indication of the cable bubble bursting. What kind of long-term impact do you see on MLB club revenues? Will teams start to behave like TV revenues may actually decline in the future?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going into the ESPN part for obvious reasons.

Dan Szymborski: I think there may be a slowing down of revenue growth as teams and leagues and media make sense of the landscape, but sports will do alright in the end.

Dan Szymborski: Sports has a great advantage in that the demographics tend to be more focused and the events are harder to watch later and skip the commercials.

Comment From 976
What’s wrong with Jay Bruce?

Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t know.

Comment From Zonk
Who will get a new stadium first: Oakland, or Tampa? And will either end up having to move? Any chance a team ends up in Charlotte, NC?

Dan Szymborski: I expect Oakland to cave before Tampa. I’m not sure that either team has much leverage though.

Comment From Guest
Did this whole Cardinals hacking thing just die or what’s going on?

Dan Szymborski: The FBI has an investigation and they don’t give updates or go on other people’s timelines

Comment From Daniel Murphys Dad
Think my son will be back with the Mets next year? Estimate on his contract?

Dan Szymborski: 3/35?

Comment From Scoot Suit
I don’t have an issue with Harvey coming out for the 9th. My issue is with Collins letting Cespedes remain in the game after he was clearly injured. The bases were loaded with nobody out, score more than just that single run there and nobody cares about Hosmer’s baserunning this morning.

Dan Szymborski: The cespedes thing was bad.

Dan Szymborski: A grounder could have been an utter disaster

Comment From Zonk
What organizations this offseason are most likely to “Blow it up” and shift into complete rebuild mode?

Dan Szymborski: Well Phillies already have.

Dan Szymborski: Orioles won’t though I think they should

Dan Szymborski: New team blowups? I think the teams facing reality already started the process mostly

Dan Szymborski: There’s a possibility the Indians do, but I think they’ll give it another go

Comment From Matt
Do you see any expansion in the future to 32 teams (to get back to an even number in each league)/

Dan Szymborski: Not in the near future. Any realistic place for new franchises is better as blackmail, from MLB’s point of view.

Comment From Guest
RE: The FBI investigation.. I get that, but is MLB going to wait for an FBI decision or will they act and punish the Cardinals this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I think with an ongoing FBI investigation, it makes sense to hold on and wait.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no emergency that they have to *stop* right now, in all likelihood

Comment From The+Dude
I liked Collins saying he thought with his heart rather than his gut. If only he listened to his pancreas (the wisest of the organs) there would probably be a game six.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t listen to your pancreas, it’s the organ that most wants to punish you for a lifetime of eating amazing food

Comment From 976
Re: Charlotte baseball. We just built this brand new stadium that will host the MiLB All-star game in 2016. it’s not large. The story there is that the city fought building it for so long in the hopes of attracting a big league team. Now that the minor league park is built, the chances of a major league team coming are close to zero.

Dan Szymborski: That’s my feeling.

Comment From Bork
‘The Cespedes thing was bad’. How many times will that line be used in the next 5 years?

Dan Szymborski: Given how much I expect him to get overpaid in December, quite a bit

Comment From Owen
What does Boston do if Hanely doesn’t work at 1B? How long will they stick w/ Panda and Ramirez if they repeat their performances from this year?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll stick until they give up hope. I’m not sure they are that stage yet. The loss of hope will come sooner for Panda. Hanley may be fine as a 1B – he’s at least comfortable in an infield spot

Comment From The Dude
Who will have grater buyer’s remorse: the team who signs Upton or the team who signs Cespedes?

Dan Szymborski: I think Cespedes is more overpaid

Comment From Matt
Zobrist and Gordon: Either back with KC? Both? Neither?

Dan Szymborski: Gordon may be back. Zobrist less likely I think

Comment From 976
Wait, so if I draft a bunch of ZiPS adjusted Rockies, then play them in Coors Field in DMB, am I getting DOUBLE the park-adjustment? #You’reNotTheRightPersonToAsk,IKnow

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: DMB takes Coors into account for Coors-projected players. They still *display* as their Coors stats, but DMB neutralizes for the event table.

Comment From Bork
The MLB will wait for the FBI results before they do anything. If they did anything beforehand it would compromise the FBI investigation. That and it could in fact be deemed it was an individual action and nothing be done to the Cardinals, though its doubtful.

Dan Szymborski: That’s my opinion

Comment From Zonk
Jorge Soler for Danny Salazar….who sez no?

Dan Szymborski: Indians

Comment From ZIPS WAS WRONG!!
World Series ended Nov. 2 at roughly 12:30 a.m. EST.

WHY AREN’T MORE PEOPLE WATCHING?!?!?!?!?!?

Dan Szymborski: Are the ratings in yet?

Dan Szymborski: I do think games should start before 8.

Comment From Derek
Does Dom Brown get a chance to start somewhere next year or is he a bench bat?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get a second chance somewhere like Oakland I think

Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to cost much at this point, so it’s worth the risk

Comment From Montreal Jean Paul
Sacre Bleu! Will baseball return to Montreal in the coming years?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly I do not believe so.

Comment From BK
Go away Zonk, Montreal first!

Dan Szymborski: Is this Zonk from BTF or another Zonk?

Comment From The Dude
What was the most entertaining part of the post season? I’m thinking maybe that 7th inning in Toronto vs the Rangers.

Dan Szymborski: The extra innings of the Series.

Dan Szymborski: Jays and Rangers did have some serious fun.

Comment From Bork
Don’t worry Jean Paul. Anthopolus is going to be the GM of the new Expos in a few years. That’s why he turned down the Jays offer. HE KNOWS MAN, HE KNOWS.

Comment From Bork
Broadcast times for the entire playoffs were messed up. How could games starting mid-afternoon on a weekday be good for ratings?

Dan Szymborski: You can’t not schedule afternoon games on a weekday when you have four playoff series going at once

Dan Szymborski: Having them at the same time isn’t great for ratings either!

Dan Szymborski: Remember The Baseball Network? That was awful

Comment From kevinthecomic
Hardball Times had a two-part write-up on potential baseball expansion cities, and the reasons why these are the best cities, this past summer.

Dan Szymborski: I did not see that, but I will check

Comment From Joe
Akinori Iwamura’s career died after Chris Coghlan destroyed his leg on a tackle I mean slide into second base. Please tell me this isn’t going to be what happens to Jung-Ho Kang

Dan Szymborski: I sure hope not. I wish MLB would take a tougher stand with this crap. It’s more damaging to players than steroids has ever been.

Comment From Optimetstic
I tip my cap to the Royals. Congrats to them and their fans. Assuming neither return, does it make more sense to replace Cespedes and Murphy on the FA market, or does a trade seem more likely? Do you see them trading any of the big 5 SP?

Dan Szymborski: I thin kthey’ll be surprisingly low-key. The team has serious owner-related revenue issues

Comment From Derek
I do not remember The Baseball Network…for the best?

Dan Szymborski: ABC/NBC joint in 1994-1995.

Dan Szymborski: In 1995 postseason, ALCS/NLCS were played simultaneously and the local affiliates had to pick which one to air

Comment From Derek
I was 10 years old in 1995. How does that make you feel?

Dan Szymborski: Old, but not super old, I was 17 in 1995. 7 years is not that crazy.

Dan Szymborski: Now, if you told me you weren’t old enough to remember 9/11, then I’d feel old.

Comment From kevinthecomic
I’m not a Royals fan, but it is great that Zobrist now has a World Series ring.

Comment From anon
If you were building a team from scratch, what qualities in players would look for? Contact, Power, speed, defense, finesse pitchers etc.?

Dan Szymborski: I would not look for a specific formula. If I’m building a team from scratch, the primary thing is to be *opportunistic*

Comment From Bork
How about kids being born after 9/11 and only knowing about it from history class and references to it.

Comment From Derek
I suppose we should consider ourselves old when our baseball childhood hero’s are now our 1st base coaches….Mickey Morandini!!!!

Comment From 976
So ZiPS are adjusted for *half* the park adjustments kinda like the fangraphs version recognizing that only home games are played in the park?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’m understanding here. All projections that take into account the home park assume only half the games are played there!

Comment From Stinky Pete
Most likely scenario that the Mets let Murphy and Cespedes walk, employ some combination of Flores and Dilson Herrera at 2B, and pick up another relatively inexpensive OF along the lines of Cuddyer? How much does the last piece depend on the health of Juan Lagares?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect that’s about right.

Dan Szymborski: Though given that they gave up the 15th pick for the privilege of overpaying for Cuddyer’s senescence, I don’t think they can afford anything as inexpensive as Cuddyer!

Comment From Owen
Do Padres make move to trade Shields this off-season? Who’d bite and what costs?

Dan Szymborski: Let me be honest: I have no idea what the Padres are thinking.

Comment From Postseason
Mets do not make it to playoffs next year, right?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect they won’t enter the season as the NL East favorite, but I think they’ll project as one of the serious wild card contenders.

Dan Szymborski: Even the ZiPS had them at 26% for playoffs entering the season and there are reasons to like them better than this year.

Comment From 976
Well DMB adjusts the event tables on a game by game basis, so those adjustments would not be halved, theoretically. Thanks for walking me through my irrational obsession with park factors.

Dan Szymborski: We’ll yeah, but you’re not going to play all your games in DMB in Coors. No park adjustment for half and “double” for half comes out the same.

Comment From ZIPS WAS WRONG!!
have you ever said “give me a hell yeah” a la stone cold?

Dan Szymborski: I have not as some might not know the reference and just assume I was a jerk

Comment From The Dude
Can I legally punch someone in the face who argues Chris Sale is not an ace caliber pitcher because he has a 3.41 ERA?

Dan Szymborski: I believe you can in most jurisdictions

Comment From johnny5alive
how can the mets be better? they are losing two of the bats that got them there, their defense will still be terrible, they have literally no bullpen, etc. this was the mets shot, and the worst part is they were winning 3 of those 4 games LATE. they gave the series away

Dan Szymborski: Full season of the starters. More Wright. Familia will have a better season. I like Dilson. Lagares should have a better year

Comment From Derek
What’s the craziest thing you would like to see happen in a game? I would love to see Bartolo Colon play all 9 positions during a game.

Dan Szymborski: Actually, I might pick exactly that. I love Colon. He has a lot of fun and he’s also one of the few major leaguers that’s both older and fatter than I am!

Dan Szymborski: Any last minute ridiculous Qs to answer of the off-topic variety? If not, I shall shuffle off into whatever it is I di.

Dan Szymborski: Which’ll be either write my Wednesday piece or do my FFXIV dailies.

Comment From The Dude
Do you think the Royals have sacrificed chickens for Jobu and//or given him cigars and rum?

Dan Szymborski: They seem like the team to do that kind of thing.

Dan Szymborski: By the way, I uploaded the original ending to Moneyball on YouTube.

Dan Szymborski: In the original screenplay, Rachel Phelps was actually the secret protagonist that invented Moneyball. Watch it before it gets copyrighted!

Dan Szymborski: https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From KG
if you were a hotdog, would you eat yourself?

Dan Szymborski: I would hope I have more self-preservation than that

Comment From Druidiful
Are you going to be working with Jonah Keri now that he is with the main espn site?

Dan Szymborski: No idea.

Comment From The Dude
You mean the original ending to Major League?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, had Moneyball on the mind

Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, time to leave for another week! Hope to see you guys next time.