Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/28/16

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Sorry guys, a few minutes late!

12:06
Dan Szymborski: (Was finishing up an Overwatch piece)

12:06
Doug: Giants supposedly feel ok with Nunez at third, and the Dodgers need to cut their debt. If not one of those two, who could emerge as a suitor for Justin Turner?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I acutally wouldn’t put it past the Red Sox to short-circuit the whole Shaw/Sandoval question and just sign Turner.

12:09
Dan Szymborski: I still think however that if the Dodgers are going to try to get Turner in somehow.

12:09
Dan Szymborski: A lot of the usual suspects have good 3B situations.

12:09
jon: How many teams has ZiPS put at the +50 war threshold that the Cubs seem to have surpassed in your 2017 projections? How rare is it?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: Extremely.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: I expect the Cubs to have the best win projection of any team ZiPS has projected.

12:10
Aladdin Sane: Could you imagine a match between the Cubs and Dodgers were the Cubs pry De Leon away by helping the Dodgers with multiple positional holes? Soler + Candelario + Zagunis? Or Something involving Candelario and Happ?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: It’s actually less crazy than it sounds.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think the Dodgers make a blockbuster that doesn’t help their payroll, given MLB’s strong hints that they have to watch the arbitrarily enforced debt limits.

12:11
Marc: Does Cutch get traded? What team is most likely to land the former MVP?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Not this winter.

12:11
Q-Ball: Is it me, or has it been really, really slow in terms of MLB transaction news since Turkey Day?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: It has been.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: The lockout rumblings make teams feel a bit less urgent.

12:12
Marc: The Mets decision to give the QO to Walker was ________?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: reasonable.

12:14
Dan Szymborski: I would absolutely sign Walker to a 1/17.2 million contract if I’m a contender, even if I *know* he would turn it down and I score a draft pick.

12:14
JP: It seems I missed the yearly ZiPS pick the first team trivia question. What was it? Also will you tell us the next three teams in the queue? Thanks.

12:14
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ remember actually!

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays are next. That’s all I shalls ay.

12:14
Zonk: How real are the Dodgers financial constraints that were reported over the weekend? Was the spending spree of the last few years driven by prior FO, or ownership?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Mixed results. MLB’s stance with the debt seems to be a little arbitrary.

12:14
CamdenWarehouse: Which Jean Segura is closer to reality: 2016 or 2014/15?

12:14
Dan Szymborski: In-between

12:14
Mike: Chances Cubs are actually serious about getting fowler back? I love him and would definitely miss the lead off bat but that OF is extremely crowded.

12:15
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re serious, but not desperate. They won’t go into some crazy bidding war.

12:15
Q-Ball: 26-man roster and removal of the QO draft pick penalty seem inevitable in this CBA…is that right?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: I hate to say inevitable with the CBA, but I think that 26-man is now likely and some modifying of the QO (not elimination) is also likely.

12:15
Dan Szymborski: MLB’s insistence on the international draft is complicating CBA predictions.

12:15
Steve: What will Conforto’s role with the Mets be next season?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: Awkward ignorance of his existence.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, right now he’s slated to start in left, but I can’t believe the Mets would want to really go with Granderson in center primarily.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I would not be surprised to see Fowler end up in New YOrk and Conforto traded.

12:17
Marc: Who says no: Sale and a RP for Glasnow Bell Hanson plus a 20-30th ranked Pirates prospect?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: Both, oddly enough.

12:18
marklxndr: What does a hypothetical 20 zWAR projection look like? As simple as just doubling Mike Trout’s 2013 stats, or something weirder?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: Hmm, let’s see.

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I actually have ZiPS open, so given Trout’s position/defense, lemme do some tinkering to see how to get to 20 WAR.

12:22
Dan Szymborski: I get 20 zWAR from Trout with a 430/533/927 season with 52 doubles, 15 triples, 65 homers, and 120 walks.

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Though I guess if he’s hitting like that, he gets walked more than that

12:23
Dan Szymborski: 50 doubles and 60 homers and 200 walks gets you there too.

12:23
MaddonAbout You: Thoughts on Arizona next year?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I’m optimistic that we see a real reshaping of the organization.

12:24
Steve Perry: Clint Frazier – future stud or are there genuine red flags with his swing that give you serious pause?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: You mean his reliance on wrist speed?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Already the hitch, if that’s what we’re talking about, is better than when he was drafted.

12:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m not that worried.

12:25
Minty: What do you think of Bowden suggesting that the Bo Sox trade Moncada, E Rodriguez, Kopech, and Swihart for Sale and Abreu. I don’t see it.

12:25
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the White Sox do this for both.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re still at the stage where they’re midly unrealistic about a Sale return and haven’t begun to seriously think on Abreu

12:26
Rob: I know you have little faith in the White Sox FO/ownership and with good reason, but do you think (if K Rosenthal’s story is true) that asking for Benintendi, Bregman or Urias is foolish or is that a reasonable ask? Thanks

12:26
Dan Szymborski: It depends on what goes in it.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: If Benintendi is the centerpiece, I think the Red Sox seriously consider it. But if there’s a bunch of ands with top prospects, they likely shy away

12:27
Spez Jenkins: Please give us more insight on Jeimer Candelario. Could he be a Bill Mueller type if he gets traded to another team? What do you think his upside HRs are in his prime?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I think he has a lot more power upside than Mueller did, certainly!

12:27
Do you have: Hi Dan, how was your Thanksgiving?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: ’twas fine.

12:28
Blwp: Who’s the second best player in baseball?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a clearcut number two.

12:28
Justino: Is there any way the Cubs can get Archer without giving up Jimenez or Cease?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: Cease I think is going to be a must in any package.

12:28
Andrew: What do you do re Trout if you’re the Angels’ GM (and have full decision-making authority)

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I actually start talking trade.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: The organization is a real mess and needs a ton of things to go right to have realistic hopes in the next few years.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: Right now, they’re an awful team that happens to have Mike Trout.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: The farm system is a mess.

12:29
Dan Szymborski: And even if they had unlimited payroll, the market just isn’t *good enough* for that to even matter.

12:30
Dan Szymborski: And the thing about Trout is that the risk is one-sided – he’s not getting better.

12:31
Dan Szymborski: The Angels could sign Cespedes, Turner, all the closers, and one torn ACL from Trout and they’re below .500 again

12:32
Zigs: Who is your pick to close out games in Arizona? Rubby, Hudson, the field… Seems like a difficult situation to work out.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure even they know, honestly, lots of unpheaval going on

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I think what they would prefer is Enrique Burgos taking a huge step up in the spring.

12:34
Matt: Hi Dan. I missed you.

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I was here last week!

12:34
Ryan C: What can Junior Guerra fetch in a trade? Was quite good last year, 5 years of control, but also in his thirties.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Age doesn’t matter really all that much for a pitcher. As I always say — obviously oversimplifying — hitters age, pitchers break.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: I think the Brewers mostly prefer to hang onto him.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: And see what happens.

12:35
Bork: Dan ‘The late man’ Szymborski

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Digital Dandy has a better ring.

12:36
Big Joe Mufferaw: What kind of return could the yankees get for Garnder? From the cubs for example?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: They would get some serious bids for Gardner at 2/23 with an option, I think.

12:37
Dan Szymborski: But despite being linked, I just don’t see him as a fit for the Cubs.

12:37
Erik: So ZiPS has Victor Caratini projected better than Miguel Montero. There was already some thought that Montero may be surplus to requirements with Schwarber and Contreras. Do you think Caratini forces his way into consideration as well? And do you think Montero is still a Cub come September?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that they’re in any rush for Caratini – Montero’s a fine complementary player who is hard to move and Caratini could use some refinement time.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: He’s worked very hard on his defense, but he should get serious time in AAA

12:39
CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles’ new pitching coach led the league with MLB pitchers who had TJS during his tenure in Atlanta, at more than twice the average rate. Should O’s fans be worried about this?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if this is necessarily predictive.

12:41
Dan Szymborski: I’m way more worried at the Duquette’s insistence about being the Footloose John Lithgow of cutters.

12:41
Matt: Dan – you’re late. I expect to get a prorated refund for the chat time I wasn’t provided.

12:41
Dan Szymborski: Your check for 11/12 * $0.00 is in the mail.

12:42
Bork: Fun Fact: Dr. Seuss was a terrible person who cheated on his wife. This led to his wife killing herself. He then married the mistress.

12:42
Dan Szymborski: That’s not really *fun*

12:42
Big Joe Mufferaw: What is the case VS Posada being a HOFer?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: Not a long enough career, unimpressive defense.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: And without some big Magic Number Milestone, his WAR case tends to be fairly weak – everyone below him in bWAR, I believe, is thought of as a poor selection or is Roy Campanella

12:45
Dan Szymborski: (Campanella lost a good 4-5 seasons due to color barrier)

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Probably didn’t l ose so much WAR from the accident since he was bout done

12:46
CamdenWarehouse: Is Rouge One worth a trip to the theater? Haven’t been since The Force Awakens.

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know! I haven’t been either.

12:46
Um: Could the Blue Jays acquire Pearce, Fowler, Blevins, Benoit, and Saunders?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: They could, it shouldn’t be crazy.

12:46
Jordan: Do you think someone will step up and offer EE 5 years?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, and will regret it in 3 or so.

12:46
Big Joe Mufferaw: Do you think given the Off-season to prepare (and assuming he would be healthy) That Bonds could be a league average hitter next season over 300AB?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit of a stretch now given the time and his age.

12:46
Erik: How do trade rumors usually start? Random musings by fans or someone involved in the early stages of a deal links something for their own nefarious purposes?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: Lots of ways.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: There’s the purposeful leak.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: And the accidental leak.

12:47
Ian: Shouldn’t the Braves take advantage of having a protected 1st rounder and go hard after Justin Turner for 3rd base?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Why not save money for the great post-2018 FA market, when the Braves are actually good enough that it matters?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Justin Turner’s best years of his next contract are likely to be the next couple.

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Why take weaker years when they’re competing for the privilege of getting strong ones when they’re not?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Yes, the Braves played reasonable ball in the second half

12:49
Dan Szymborski: And looking at second half stats is the source of a lot of horribly wrong predictions.

12:49
In the morning: My favorite baseball player supports Donald Trump. Is it reasonable that this affects my attitude toward him?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Personally, I think the crossover between political beliefs into every aspect of interaction in daily life has contributed to the widening of people.

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Not sure that’s the right term at the end. Actually it isn’t

12:51
Dan Szymborski: But the polarization will just get worse if *everything* has to be about politics.

12:51
Cactus Man: What are your thoughts on the Segura/Walker swap?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Fair for both sides, boringly enough.

12:51
rustydude: Is the closest comp of Bryant to Santo pure coincidence in that it’s the same team and same position?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Pure coincidence – team isn’t part of comps.

12:51
Marc: Melancon back to the Pirates at 4/50. Crazy or Crazy enough that it might make sense? Especially if they aquire a 2/3 thru a trade?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Meh. The Pirates got where they are by not giving closers 4/50.

12:52
Cactus Man: If you had your druthers, which former Baseballers would be inducted in the Hall of Fame this time around?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Bonds, Schilling, Clemens, Mussina, Bagwell, Walker, Raines, Edgar, Manny, Pudge are all *easy* choices.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Have to think a bit more on Kent, Sheffield, Vlad, Sosa, but them too.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: On the borderline McGriff, Posada, Wagner, Hoffman, and I’m inclined to say yes on McGriff, no on Posada, Wagner, and I’m not really sure on Hoffman.

12:54
Kristen: If LAD needs a 2B’man, chances Profar could bring TEX back one or two of their non-Urias/DeLeon SP prospects like Brock Stewart/Yadier Alvarez?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Low.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Very low.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Profar’s trade value just isn’t all that high – the reasons he was an amazing prospect are all like four years old now.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: He’s still young, but you don’t get that development time back.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: He has less trade value than D’Angelo Jimenez had with the Padres – Jimenez performed better and missed less time with his serious injury.

12:56
Michael: Obviously a lot can still change in a career, but surprised ZiPS doesn’t think Bryant is on a HoF track with that projection.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: When did ZiPS say Bryant was not on a Hall of Fame track?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: It would be unusual if it did and I didn’t know about it, given that I’m the only one who accesses ZiPS.

12:58
Rick Hahn: Who ends up giving me the best package for Sale?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: The suitors in the White Sox imaginations.

12:58
NutButters: Jeff Sullivan says Jonathan Holder is the most dominant relief pitching prospect. Does the most dominant relief prospect deserve a top 100 prospect spot? Interested in value perceived.

12:58
Dan Szymborski: I’d say yes, but in the back end.

12:59
EC: What is the financial cost of Aroldis Chapman being a not good person? Has to take at least a bit of air out of his market?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s less of a big deal a year on.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: See the difference in package the Yankees got him at and the Cubs got him at.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s *just* the Reds being deluded, though that obviously plays a role in things they do.

12:59
Colin: As much as we Cubs fan would like to think Jorge Soler will bring back Chris Archer in a trade, a Soler for Sean Doolittle (or insert any reliever/lower starter) trade is more likely, right? Maybe Soler for 3 years of Verlander if the Cubs want to really win now?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: Soler won’t fetch Verlander.

1:00
Dan Szymborski: A rliever/lower starter is about right.

1:01
mtsw: Adam Jones plays unusually shallow for a CF. Is he a good candidate to improve by just lining up deeper (like Dexter Fowler did successfully in 2016) or is he just not athletic enough to be in CF anymore?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: I think he actually isn’t *quite* as shallow as he was earlier in his career, though still very shallow.

1:02
Dan Szymborski: I just don’t think he’s all that fast.

1:02
Matt: For your ZiPS projections, how do you come to estimate PAs? Is there some method to the madness, or is that more art than science (ie your personal estimation of the players’ share of playing time)?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: There’s zero personal estimation. I keep the plain-jane ZiPS projections with as little input from me as possible.

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Outside of sometimes projecting at a different position, I have zero input on the projection.

1:02
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS uses history, quality, rudimentary injury data, and age.

1:03
Sam: As a Reds fan I’m so mad about that Mariners-Diamondbacks trade. Who is going to trade for Zack Cozart now!?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m still amazed that the player the Reds got for Alfredo Simon still has a better career ZiPS projection than any player they got for Aroldis Chapman or Todd Frazier

1:03
ohioastrosfan: If Detroit sells, Verlander to Houston? Can take on full salary, has the prospects. Would a package without Bregman do it? Martes, K Tucker +?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: I think they can do it without Bregman, though it would have to be a deep package.

1:04
Doug: If no deal by Thursday are the winter meetings off?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Let’s gto one step at a time

1:04
mtsw: Should the Orioles quit while they’re ahead on Dylan Bundy? Given the SP market, they could probably get a good return for him and then not have to worry about his shoulder/elbow exploding ever again.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Only if they’re rebuilding and I’ve seen no indication they are. If they aren’t, they *need* Bundy to work out because nothing they can probably obtain is likely to.

1:05
TJ: How common do you think the big FA will get opt-outs this year?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: Not very, it’s not a very good market.

1:05
Erik: The lockout rumblings seem to be picking up. Is that just standard procedure when negotiations are going on and writers have nothing to talk about? Or is there reason to worry that negotiations aren’t going as smoothly as we thought?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: A little more worrisome than usual as there’s a serious issue on which players and owners are far apart.

1:05
Ned Yost: Formulate an Abreu trade framework: 2 50-100 level prospects and a third 125-175 level guy seem right?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Slightly rich for my blood, slightly poor for Chicago’s.

1:06
Lure of the Animal: Could you see the Phillies being in the Cespedes mix?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Not really

1:06
Dave: Im a little bit behind on the lockout talks due to school….any way I can get a quick synopsis on what is going on??

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Players don’t want international draft, owners do.

1:06
CamdenWarehouse: What do the players get in return for the international draft?

1:06
Dan Szymborski: In the end, I think not much.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA is very weawk.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA’s solid ground is solely due to the Miller/Fehr years.

1:07
Dan Szymborski: MLBPA needed to address domestic abuse issues, but there’s no way in a million years that Miller would have agreed to a punishment menu that was “whatever the hell the commissioner feels like”

1:07
Dan Szymborski: And the owners successfully split and got the MLBPA to fold repeatedly over drug testing.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: (I doubt the owners really care about the drug testing outside of being one of their best clubs to smash the MLBPA for a generation)

1:08
JT: MLB really needs to set replay rules that are less vague. I watched 2 NFL games Thursday, hooooly shit. Replay everything, then challenge the replays, did the football bounce 1 micrometer off of the receivers elbow upon contact? Not a catch! How can people say baseball is slow and tedious?

1:08
Dan Szymborski: I hate the MLB replay rules.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Screw challenges. Just have a third-party in the booth with the authority to review any play.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: None of this dog-and-pony show.

1:09
mtsw: Will Dexter Fowler’s shenanigans last season where he agreed in principle with the Orioles then backed out and reported to Cubs camp without notifying them hurt him at all in free agency? Or do other clubs essentially understand that clowning the Orioles front office is uniquely doable in a way that’s unlikely to be repeated?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: I doubt it’s a repeatable thing.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: OK, last questions guys, I have a full afternoon scheduled.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Anything weird or off-topic, we’re forgoing the Lightning Round, so just blurt it out.

1:09
dude: On a scale of 1-10 how scared should I be of a lockout?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: 6

1:10
Erik: You’re vaguely some sort of common internet libertarian as far as I can remember, right? Does that apply to your view of the CBA as well? Are you generally more pro-capital and anti-labor there as well? Seems like nearly all writers I see are fully pro-player, so that would be interesting if true.

1:10
Dan Szymborski: I really hate the politics Qs. I’m very tolerant of political views that aren’t mine and getting into political debates online is something I generally stay away from

1:10
Dan Szymborski: With the exception being the BTF OTP thread, but truth be told, that’s mostly because there are a couple people there I simply personally dislike.

1:11
Dan Szymborski: I am a supporter of free parties cooperating with each other. I’ll leave it at that.

1:11
Alex: Is it weird that that Trout 20 zWAR doesn’t sound completely insane?

1:11
Dan Szymborski: Still kinda is

1:12
Minty: What about Beni’s profile makes him slightly easier to be a centerpiece? Just curious

1:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t mean easier than other player, just as an example of *one* of their big names.

1:12
Bork: What will the 30 for 30 on the Angels misuse of Trout be called?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Angels in the Outhouse

1:13
fan: You say the Angels are an “awful” team but the depth charts page projects them at 85 wins. And we don’t even have a 2B yet. Why you hating?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: That’s with 9 wins from Trout and assuming a lot of health.

1:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t mean awful in the “62-100” sense

1:14
Dan Szymborski: But they’re likely a 73-74 win team without Trout and the team literally has *no* upside anywhere. The farm system looks like Carthage post-Punic wars and they’re old.

1:14
pathard: Dan, are you still devising defensive ratings for DMB that used to be included in your ZIPs forecasts? If not, are the newer defense numbers roughly convertible to the old DMB ratings?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: DMB ratings don’t have a lot of granuloarity

1:15
Matt: You just said you think they’d get some serious bids on Gardner. I used to be in that boat, but over the past season (and last offseason), I feel the value on the market is relatively close to Gardner, and players could be signed without giving something up.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: The FA market is *really* awful

1:15
John: Could the Royals get creative and trade for someone like Conforto?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: They would likely need to move a win-now piece, which doesn’t work. KC more interesting if they cash it in.

1:16
Rob: Benintendi, Kopech, Devers for Sale? Who says no?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: I think that’s a bit more realistic a return, so White Sox.

1:16
Matt: Looks like the Rockies might stumble into contention despite their best efforts over the last 5 years. What is the next “logical move” for them?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Monforts stay out of baseball affairs and the front office has a clean sweep.

1:16
Spencer: What 10 guys would get your HOF vote?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Can’t say. I’d be a late voter and look at ballots and prioritize players around 75% and players around 5%

1:17
CamdenWarehouse: Lots of people (pros and us) are talking about a Panda trade. Would any team actually want him if they had to pay any chunk of his salary and/or give up prospects?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox need to eat a ton to get *anything*

1:17
Ryan: What’s the highest WAR ZIPS has ever projected?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Trout one of these years

1:17
CamdenWarehouse: People have been widened?

1:17
rustydude: I thought excess food intake is what contributes to the widening of people?

1:17
Uther: Concerning the Hearthstone expansion, what approach would you recommend for using gold to buy packs? I have over 5000 gold available.

1:17
Dan Szymborski: There’s not really an approach – the only way to exchange gold for packs is to exchange gold for packs

1:18
Jim Lonborg: Did you read Cameron’s piece about making the 26th player be a position player, and do you think that’s plausible?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually and I think I better now. I’d love 26th player if it wasn’t another damn reliever.

1:18
CamdenWarehouse: How can Wagner be a no, but Hoffman a not sure? Wagner was better in all things except Save totals?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: 20% more IP isn’t nothing.

1:19
Andrew: What’s the logic behind voting for Bonds but not Clemens (or vice versa) for HOF?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: No good logic.

1:19
kevinthecomic: ZiPS says all kinds of things when your back is turned, Dan!

1:19
Matt: On D-Day, General Patton led a false invasion on a different shore using inflatable tanks and infintry. What are the chances that a team could employ a similar strategy in trading inflatable figures of their best prospects for Chris Sale?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Heh

1:19
CamdenWarehouse: Do the Braves have a Trout package available if he were on the market? Obviously Markakis would be the centerpiece, but do they have enough?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: They’d have to be willing to move Kemp of course!

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Kappa

1:20
Dan: ZiPS includes defensive value, correct?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:20
Youngman: Dan, should the Braves go ahead and trade Swanson? I mean we don’t wanna waste any of his good years even if they are cheap salaries.. We could widen the basket of prospects we already have. Albies takes Swanson’s spot.

1:20
Dan Szymborski: He’s young enough that his good years are likely to be relevant

1:20
The Walrus: So is the players’ stance absolutely no international draft?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Not absolute, but they want something serious more than a few players not getting QOs.

1:20
Pete: Do you really think the Braves will be big spenders after the 2018 season? I don’t see it, I disagree with your response to the DraftPick/Turner question.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: It’s the time that makes sense.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: Are we arguing should or will?

1:21
Hank: Why are International prospects essentially free agents and can talk to all teams and get any kind of contract they want, while actual MLB Draft players have no power essentially? Makes zero sense. How in the hell is it right for a Swanson or Moniak to get 6-7 million while Moncada gets 30+ mil.

1:21
Dan Szymborski: It isn’t,b ut the solution isn’t to screw everyone equally.

1:22
Dan Szymborski: And the thing is, those big international free agents instantly become union members on the 40-man roster, draft picks don’t.

1:22
Dave V : So you think if the owners wanted a salary cap there would not be a strike by this group of players?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: There would be, but I think they lose this time.

1:22
Jabari Parker: Dear Dan, would you drink a mixture of gravy and Turkey, served up in a blender?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: No

1:22
Um: Do you ever watch basketball?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:22
CamdenWarehouse: You must not have gotten MLB’s replay memo. This system is “unique” and has “charm”

1:23
O: Do you like 1-ply toilet paper

1:23
Dan Szymborski: No

1:23
Dan: Best burger joint?

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Five Guys

1:23
Matt: A+ on your Angle’s 30 for 30 title. I think I might have just pooped myself a little.

1:23
Matt: Is it weird I’m oddly hoping for a 2 month lockout and an insane Feburary of trades and signings.

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Covering Overwatch and Hearthstone, I at least have some things to keep me busy

1:23
Dominik: do you think schwarber at his peak is a 4 war player? no good defense but if he hits for a 900 Ops he can do that, right?

1:23
Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible, but we need to see how non-sucky he can get his D

1:23
Matt K: Joe Blanton gets _______ in FA.

1:23
Dan Szymborski: farts

1:24
Matt K: Why do we care about the HOF so much?

1:24
Dan Szymborski: We love baseball, we love the people who play baseball, and we want there to be an honor sufficient to reward the best baseball players we’ve seen.

1:24
Aunt Jemima: Any chance Conforto ends up with the Cubs?

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Probably no

1:24
Dan Szymborski: But nothing’s really zero.

1:24
jon: Have you done ZiPS for Shohei Otani?

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I’m hoarding that one for now

1:24
Matt K: Haven’t heard anything about adding the DH to the NL in this round of CBA talks. Surprising?

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Bigger issues have arose

1:24
Matt: Is there a bit of irony lost in the fact that the Red Sox would have to eat a lot of Sondoval’s contract to move him, but by moving him, they would lose one of their best eaters?

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Death By Chocolate

1:25
A cat: With the WBC and a desire for a shortened season, wouldn’t a lockout work in favor of the PA?

1:25
Dan Szymborski: I just don’t know if the MLBPA has the unity

1:25
Matt: Dan, there’s an imposter Matt here. I’m the one with all the smart and funny comments. Imposter Matt is the one with the not funny and dumb ones. Just so you can tell us apart.

1:25
JT: ” we need to see how non-sucky he can get his D”

1:25
Jameson: Do you think you get too many Braves questions? As a Braves fan I think you do

1:25
Bork: Why can’t I work at home like you do

1:25
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know your skillset!

1:25
Dan Szymborski: OVER

1:25
Dan Szymborski: TALKING TIME IS OVER

1:26
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everybody! As a reminder, you can find my work on ESPN, covering baseball and eSports, chats and projections here at Fangraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

1:26
Dan Szymborski: And yeah, I know we use Esports, but that sounds like “eh-sports” and I hate that format!

1:26
Matt: What, no, that Matt is the impostor. Probably has a fake mustache too.

1:26
Bork: My employer doesn’t know my skillset too. It’s great.

1:26
Olmec: The choice is your’s alone: Should I pre-purchase the 50 packs for MSG?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: Sure. The expansion looks good.

1:26
Slacker George: What type of hat does/should a Digital Dandy wear?

1:27
Dan Szymborski: Porkpie for serious drinking.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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