Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/18/17

Dan Szymborski: I THOUGHT TODAY WAS TUESDAY!

Bret: How does the Jays offseason look after the Jose Bautista signing?

Dan Szymborski: Decent, not specatular.

Chris: How much fun is it to check out TalkingChop and see so many people adamantly fight against the validity of sabermetrics. We have some heated Matt Kemp discussions going on if you want a “fun” read

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been in some of those. I already flamed that guy with the weird metaphysical post.

CarrotJuice: Over/under on number of strokes you expect to have tonight

Dan Szymborski: Just 1.

Erik: ZiPS has Jerad Eickhoff as the Phillies’ top starter. What are the odds he actually finishes as their top starter, and if he does, is it more likely that he had an awesome year or that everyone else was mediocre at best?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to look it up, but when fixed, it’s NOla anyway.

John: Seems like the 2017 production by Bautista would have to fall into a pretty slim window for the Jays and Bautista to both pick up the option. Any guesses at what that window is? Or am I totally off base here

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more of a face-saver for Bautista than anything.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like a QO without the compensation.

Rangers fan: Hate to be asking this due to the circumstances, but now with the news of Jake Diekman out does a trade of Profar to SD for one of their lefty RPs make sense? (Hand, Buchter, etc)

Dan Szymborski: Seems a little short for Profar

Dan Szymborski: Even given that he doesn’t have the trade value he used to.

CamdenWarehouse: Bautista too has attendance bonuses. Is this going to be a new thing? I bet we can come up with more enjoyable incentives than that.

Dan Szymborski: These have happened a few times.

Shane: Do people realize that Bautista had easily the highest hard-hit rate of his career last year? How come he didn’t have more suitors?

Dan Szymborski: Age and money.

mtsw: We’re constantly told fans want more dingers and more scoring. Should the Giants move the fences in so they can match the ultra-popular clubs in hitters’ parks like Cinci, Milwaukee and Guaranteed Rate field?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it seems that they don’t have a team suited for that.

Chuncey Wiggins: Ketchup and mustard come in dispensers, why has no one invented liquid sauerkraut so that I can squeeze that on my hotdog? Oh, uhhh…do you like sauerkraut?

Dan Szymborski: I do like sauerkraut.

Dan Szymborski: I feel horseradish and malt vinegar should be the two main condiments. Or at least replace ketchup

Bab: Dan, what do you think of the phenomenon of “dabbing”?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Dan Szymborski: I’m answering as many Qs as I can, I can only stay until 3:15

Erik: Do you think, as ZiPS does, that Cesar Hernandez’s defense last season was a total fluke, and will crater a full 15 runs next season? I get that defensive performance varies somewhat, but I’m amazed that ZiPS considers his improvement to be 100% fluke. I would have assumed that he’d at least gotten a little better at defense at that some of the improvement would stick.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not 100% fluke. If it was 100% fluke, it would be negative.

Dan Szymborski: I also reject the premise that we even know he was “really” +14 at 2B. He was 4 by DRS

T: Dan, would you drink a hot dog and bread smoothie, thinned out with milk?

Dan Szymborski: Not voluntarily

jda: Are ZiPS projections context-dependent in terms of the defense behind a pitcher? And (shameless Diamond Mind question) if that’s the case, aren’t DMB’s ZiPS-aided projections “double dipping” with respect to defensive help/harm a pitcher receives?

Dan Szymborski: Diamond Mind effectively neutralizes stats going into the event table.

Om: What’s your favorite children’s book?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t actually read children’s books.

Dan Szymborski: I was reading Ken Follett and other thrillers of the type during kindergarten/1st grade and I did a book report in second grade on The Exorcist.

norman: Cordero the rule 5 Padres shortstop. Does he roster all year and where does he rank in their prospect list ? Top 15 ?

Dan Szymborski: You mean Cordoba I assume?

Dan Szymborski: Out of top 15 I think

Tommy Tutone: Dan, talk to me about Michael Fulmer. Was last year a fluke or do you think he becomes a solid #2 starting pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be a real #2

Bubba: What do you think the Mets do with Jay Bruce?

Dan Szymborski: Hope some overpays for him

Jonathan: Is there harm to a prospect’s development if a team brings him up early to serve as a bullpen stimulant? For example, would it be harmful for the Dodgers to consider using Alvarez as a flamethrowing reliever come post season?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never seen any real harm to this, but that’s anecdotal, I haven’t done a throough study

norman: Some Giant fans are saying Ty Blach gets the #5 rotation slot ,carry all year ,wins 15 games with a 3.50 era at ATT park

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little aggressive.

Chuncey Wiggins: Baseball player that is most likely two small children disguised inside one uniform?

Dan Szymborski: Sandoval. That’s why he occasionally loses weight – the smaller kid sometimes escapes and needs to be recaptured for the Pandochimera.

britishcub: i read an article this week that stated that eric hosmer did great work improving his free agent stock in 2016. Do mainstream writers just not know how baseball works?

Dan Szymborski: Some don’t.

Z: Just saw the Zips projection for Michael Saunders. Given his solid projection, low cost, and team need, would you have liked to see him go to the O’s?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Kujo: Where do you think Lourdes Gurriel Jr starts off this year? I tried to look him up on the site but it goes to his brothers page.

Dan Szymborski: I’m of the opinion they start him at AA to get comfortable and then aggressively move him.

jon: Happy National Dead Religion Day, celebrating the last living followers of the Defenders of the Good Old Days, The Will To Win and Past Better Than Present. May our future be blessed with open ballots and accountable journalists.

Dan: Adam Eaton: any chance you wanna dish on his ZIPS – he wasn’t in the CWS or WAS lists, due to trade timing

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be on FG in a couple weeks. He’s still in my ESPN piece!

Zock Jr.: Dan, you’d have felt right at home during Travis Sawchik’s chat. Lots of Markakis questions.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t really mean for you guys to torment the poor guy!

Vince Vega: David Dahl bad MF or just bad? ( i guess the third option is ‘meh’)

Dan Szymborski: Dahl is too awesome for his parent franchise.

Monsignor Martinez: Who should Cleveland give up to upgrade their outfield with Markakis?

Dan Szymborski: Modern analysis.

The Decadent Moose: Without diving into your ZiPS, who has a better “next three years” starting tomorrow: Toles or Mallex Smith?

Dan Szymborski: Mallex

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Hot take on the Nintendo Switch?

Dan Szymborski: Eh. Waiting and seeing how it turns out in practice when games are out.

LB: Better hitter going forward. Schwarber or Benintendi?

Dan Szymborski: Schwarber, but Benintendi the better overall player

CamdenWarehouse: People are asking Travis about Nick Markakis and he is politely informing them that your chat is on Wednesdays now.

Devil Ray J. Johnson: You have just been hired to develop MLBTV’s first sitcom. It has to star a current MLB player. Who do you audition? Who gets the gig?

Dan Szymborski: An Odd Couple type sitcom of Jon Papelbon and Craig Breslow

+ison Russell: Is Tanaka the most underrated Top 25 pitchers in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, I think he’s about rated now.

Seven Costanza: Is “Joey Bats” the worst nickname? Consider that he’s not even the best hitter named “Joey,” and he’s also not the best hitter named “Joey” who also wears #19.

Dan Szymborski: Worst nickname is J-Hey Kid.

inquiry: ZiPS, FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer all project nearly identical 2017 WAR for rookie outfielders Andrew Benintendi of Boston and Mitch Haniger of Seattle. Does the 3 1/2-year age difference explain the contrasting hype for each player?

Dan Szymborski: Age is a big deal

Kvn: Dan, please tell me the O’s won’t resign Trumbo.

Dan Szymborski: He’s come down enough in price that they might actually re-sign him at a stupid pric.e

Dan Szymborski: might actually *not* re-sign him at a supid price

CamdenWarehouse: Where are you Dan?

Dan Szymborski: I was playing Hearthstone, MLK threw me off and today felt like Tuesday

Black Spot on Bud Selig’s Heart: What is the dividing line for the players on the current HOF ballot where you go from “I disagree with a vote for this player” to outright rage?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see, somewhere between Lee Smith and Jack Morris.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s call it the Magglio Ordonez line.

Jono: Yangervis Solarte’s wife died late-season last year after a battle with cancer. I have to imagine that affected his performance throughout the year. I realize there’s no way ZiPS can account for that- Do you think expectations should be that he outperform ZiPS this year as a result?

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea.

Drank: Have you played Dominion? You would probably like Dominion. It is a fun game.

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to but I have no board game friends.

powder: ‘Zorilla is a good nickname, but I feel like it’s a missed opportunity for the nickname “BenZo.” You know, ’cause he puts the the game to bed? Or he knocks out the competition? Or ’cause he never panics? Or… I dunno, he causes hallucinations? (I don’t actually know about drugs, maybe this is a bad nickname….never mind.)

Will Graham : Felix Hernandez bounce back a little this year? Back to 3.50/1.2 8+ k/9?

Dan Szymborski: Somewhat, but he may just be Duke Felix now.

Kujo: Havent seen anything about any Japanese signings this year. No one making the jump this year?

Dan Szymborski: If there have been, I missed it

Robin: Was the move to Wednesday to try and separate you from all of the uneducated folks that still believe Markakis is good?

Dan Szymborski: You can be smart enough to know the days of the week but not smart enough to reject the idea that Markakis is awesome

Black Spot on Bud Selig’s Heart: I imagine the Szymborski HOF rage meter goes “McGriff? OK”… “Kent? If you squint”…”Hoffman? Whatever”…”Wagner? That’s a stretch”…”Smith? WHAT THE F@#% IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE!”

Franklin: Do you have a projection for the newly signed Jose Miguel Fernandez?

Dan Szymborski: Not yet

Joe: How long did it take to get ZiPS in working form?

Dan Szymborski: A couple years. not that I worked straight on it for a couple years.

powder: Travis had an article on “Uncertainty” Re: injuries and Thorasic outlet surgery. Given the ceiling, but also the uncertainty: Is Tyson Ross really a more attractive option at this point than Hammel for teams with rotation question marks?

Dan Szymborski: If I’m a contender, I want Hammel, if I’m not, I want Ross

Dan Szymborski Sentient Email: Why did you just order 500 toy whistles in the shape of basketballs?

Hannah Hochevar: All this back-to-back Dan and Dave stuff has me feeling like it’s the 1992 Olympics all over again. Does that mean you’re going to fail to qualify?

Dan Szymborski: Since I showed up late, I think that is in fact true

Dan Szymborski Sentient Email: Do you really want to receive notifications from Bed, Bath, and Beyond?

Dan Szymborski Sentient Email: Are you really not going to open that Evite from Tina? She was the only one who stuck around to help split the check at your birthday dinner.

Dani Szymborski (no relation): Who on the current HOF ballot ends up getting voted in before their eligibility expires?

Dan Szymborski: I think the ones that don’t are Schilling, Walker, Sosa, Smith, Kent, McGriff, Sheffield, Wagner.

Dan Szymborski: I thin kthe others get in.

Dan Szymborski: I mean of the serious candidates.

Dan Szymborski: Obviously I don’t think Melvin Mora could get in.

mtsw: Am I crazy to look at the Phillies’ ZiPS and think they could actually be decent? Would they be a good team to add Mark Trumbo to play 1B?

Dan Szymborski: They *could* be OK, but they’re not as far along in their rebuild as the record looks – they did have a 62-100 pythag.

Dan Szymborski: So people are overrating them a bit, which isn’t their fault – the Phillies are doing the things they should be

mtsw: Any idea how the new Braves stadium will play, park factors wise? Does ZiPS just assume its neutral until proven otherwise?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Dan Szymborski: I tried modeling stadium effects based on dimensions, altitude, climate, distribution of wind directions, and stadium orientation. it failed miserably.

schadenfreude: Who has the worst farm system?

Dan Szymborski: Angels

Dan Szymborski: An actual farm has better prospects than the Angels.

Eric: If Twins hold firm on Dozier, should LAD be desperate for a plan B trade, or is standing pat a viable option? FWIW, the ZiPS forecast for Chris Taylor is one factor that has me leaning toward standing pat (since plan B’s such as Forsythe would seem to be tiny upgrades, if that).

Dan Szymborski: If the Dodgers were desperate, they’d have closed the Dozier deal already.

Jonathan: Are teams just now opposed to giving any older player any kind of significant contract? In other words, could any 35+ year old player get anything beyond one year going forward, or is this like a new norm?

Dan Szymborski: Players are going to have to be realistic.

Eric: Are the rumors true that FG will add DRA to all its pages alongside things like xFIP and SIERA?

Dan Szymborski: You’d have to ask a Dave

Josh Nelson: Out of the teams that made the postseason in 2016, which of those teams do you predict won’t make the postseason in 2017?

Dan Szymborski: I think last year’s AL wild cards fall short

Jeremy: How many MLB games do you attend per year?

Dan Szymborski: I try to go to about 40.

Dan Szymborski: I went to fewer last year, I messed up my back camping in April and it was sore for most of the summer.

Matt: Why do the Pirates depth chart projections have Willy Garcia pitching 30 innings in relief?

Dan Szymborski: You’d have to ask the FG guys.

Tom: Did you ever go back to Europa Universalis IV? They keep adding quite a bit of depth.

Dan Szymborski: CK2 and Stellaris tend to suck me in more because they’re a little quicker to just pick up and go

Josh Nelson: Will Mike Mussina ever make the hall of fame?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Andrew: Here’s the question that will decide who will win the World Series in 2017: who won the 2016-2017 offseason (so far)?

Dan Szymborski: White Sox

Dan Szymborski: and no

Dan Szymborski: they’re not winning the Series.

Coswr: Why do people ask you about bizarre meat smoothies?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure.

Jonathan: Which Pokémon would you pick to start with when you played Red/Blue?

Dan Szymborski: Bulbasaur or GTFO

Dan Szymborski: Can you dunk

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I’m 5’11 with T-Rex arms. I couldn’t dunk when I was in better shape.

dan: you have carte blanche to change the game; what do you do? shrink the strike zone? move in all fences 20 feet? replace extra innings with a home run derby?

Dan Szymborski: 10 man pitching staffs.

CamdenWarehouse: Of course Hosmer improved his stock. He had over 100 RBIs for the first time in his career last year.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not 1995 – the worst GMs today would be about average 20 years ago

Jake Larsen: Is a HOF with under 5 players just as bad or close to being as bad as a blank ballot?

Dan Szymborski: It’s bad in thought, but not quite as bad in effect. At least you’re screwing over fewer guyus.

mtsw: Would you agree with the assertion that ZiPS and Steamer usually spit out similar projections with the difference being that ZiPS is more aggressive and Steamer is more regressed? Just an observation I’ve had looking at the projections, wonder if that fits with your evaluation.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t noticed any real calibration difference.

Dan Szymborski: Though sometimes there’s oddities – ZiPS likes almost every Cardinal position player better than Steamer for some reason

Z: What is an acceptable mutually-beneficial contract for the O’s to give Trumbo now?

Dan Szymborski: 1/18 and save face.

Jon: It’s hard to outright buy prospects, but could a team overpay for someone ($100m over five years for Chapman) and then flip to a team for a few elite prospects if they ate the entire $100m contract?

Dan Szymborski: They could do something like this.

mtsw: Why is Vlad Guerrero a consensus HoFer among the SABR crowd but Jim Edmonds lasted one year on the ballot? They’re almost the same player except Edmonds was the more valuable fielder.

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I complained mercilessly about that.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t hear talk about Edmonds right now because we already lost.

marklxndr: When will Rockies ZiPS come out? The David Dahl question got me all jittery. He’s very handsome.

Dan Szymborski: They come out at the apportioned time.

Joe: How does Mussina get in and not Schilling? Cause he isn’t an ass hole?

Dan Szymborski: Schilling ought to be in, of course, but Schilling isn’t winning friends among the marginal voters.

Optimistic Blimpie’s: Horseradish? You Arby’s puppet

Dan Szymborski: I said horseradish, not horsey sauce.

Dan Szymborski: The actual grated stuff you get in a jar, not the mayo+horseradish concoction

Erol: Why is Gwent better than Hearthstone?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not big on Gwent.

Dan Szymborski: Shadowverse, on the other hand, is better than Hearthstone right now.

Dan Szymborski: Though you have to get used to the very Japanime styl;e.

JT: Bulbasaur? Way to take the cowards way out

Dan Szymborski: Winning über alles.

Optimistic Blimpie’s: Which FA has involuntarily retired but does not know it yet?

Dan Szymborski: Bronson Arroyo

CamdenWarehouse: you must be rushed, your sarcasm detector is off today

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I’m trying to fit 75 minutes worth of questions into 45 minutes.

Lev: Which Ernest movie is the best? and why is it Scared Stupid?

Dan Szymborski: Can there be a best Ernest movie?

Dan Szymborski: True story: Ernest P. Worrell’s character is related to Todd Worrell.

The A Train: Can we call the “begrudgingly going back to your old team for barely more than the QO” ‘The Bautista’ now? Used in a sentence:

johnny: I noticed Greg Holland wasn’t included with KC’s ZiPs, although that was his last team. Can you give me a projection for him, or wait until the final spreadsheet comes out?

Dan Szymborski: I just forgot.

Tom: CKII is so confusing and hard to pick-up, EUIV seems downright simple compared to it. But then again I must be biased. Give it another look.

Dan Szymborski: CKII, as long as you don’t start too aggressive with who you pick (like, say, going with HRE emperor), you have simple strategic choices at the start.

Dan Szymborski: OK, gotta go!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joing me everybody! Sorry we had to stuff the chat awkwardly. I

Dan Szymborski: See you guys next week, I’m late!