Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/20

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Last Thursday, you got to eat turkey. THIS Thursday, you get to talk with a big turkey!

12:01
DJ Tanner: Is baseball the only sport where teams in the draft don’t always take the best player available? Like Heston Kjerstad goes second overall but only went there cause they got him under slot. But wouldn’t how much better Austin Martin (or others) is be worth the extra $1.8M?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t say anything about hockey, but the NBA and NFL have a mechanism that works against this sort of thing: trading draft picks.

12:02
Chris: Was it a mistake that the Indians ZIPS includes Yasiel Puig? Or did I miss a signing?

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: IMA GONNA MAKE YOU READ THE ZiPS DISCLAIMER

12:02
Turk: The non-tenderpocalypse was very underwhelming.

12:02
Mando: Will there be a ZiP released today? Pretty please.

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No ZiPS release today as I spent yesterday working on a piece for ESPN

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BUt there will be one tomorrow

12:02
Zach: Sorry for my ignorance but how did Shane Bieber’s 2021 projected WAR decrease from last year? On the 3 year projections it pencils him in at a 5.1 win season while on the updated ZiPS projection for the Indians it has him at 4.6? He’s projected for around the same amount of innings.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Those are the projections run before the 2020 season.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are no 2021 ZiPS projections in the team page.

12:03
More Quarantine Please!: Zips is fairly optimistic on Sano for 2021 despite horrendous plate discipline this year. Do you think the projection passes the smell test or should we all be taking the under?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: See above: there is no ZiPS 2021.

12:03
Bb: Dan, please help me. I’m 52 and according to you have never had real chilli. Would you be willing to share your recipe here or on Twitter?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

Dan’s chili, btw:

2 pounds of beef cubed
paste made from a good handful of pasilla chiles, guajillo chiles, a teaspoon of masa harina, and two of those cans of chipotle in adobo.
Salt, pepper, cumin.

Cook for a whole bunch of time at low until it’s chili.

19 Oct 2020
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

Oh, a couple cups of water.
19 Oct 2020
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually, tablespoon of masa harina

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: you can throw all that in a food processor really

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (NOT THE BEEF CUBES, THE PASTE PART)

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DO NO PUREE THE BEEF

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH

12:05
C, eh. N, eh. D, eh.: Danny Jansen was projected for an 86 OPS+ entering 2020, hit for an 85 OPS+ & saw his 2021 projection rise to 101, one if the largest gains of the players released so far. What’s driving that jump? Increased walk rate? xwOBA underperformance in 2020? Getting a year older?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks he was a huge BABIP underperformer in 2020

12:06
RMR: Are the Braves going to let Riley get a shot at holding down a starting job this year (at least to start the year) or will they put a vet in front of him?  I’m encouraged by some of the under the hood changes he made last year.

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect they are. An OF is more important and they’ve already brought in Morton

12:06
Chris: If the rangers trade lance lynn what would you guess they would be looking for? A few toolsy far away prospects? Major league ready tweeners? Basically do you think they are sellers or retoolers

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They are sellers now. The Skinny Rebuild has largely failed.

12:06
RMR: ZiPS seems to really like Ha-Seong Kim.  Eric’s scouting grades, though solid, seem less enthused.  What the heck should we expect?  Eric has him for 50 hit and 45/50 game/raw future pop.  Seems like his swing may be geared to get to more power than that based on the video I’ve seen?  Is Albies a good upside comparison in terms of the line?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not *quite* as high on Kim as ZiPS is, but I’m still very optimistic

12:07
Mike: Do you have an early clue on what Juan Soto’s zips look like?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I betcha they’ll be good!

12:07
LFC Mike: Greetings and HAppy Holidays Dan.

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Same to you! And all the rest of you as well.

12:07
LFC Mike: Dan…I need to know  what the neural networks 12 Days of Christmas would look like.

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The 12 Days of Christmas is an INSANE song.

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: To demonstrate this a few years ago, I fired up scribblenauts

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:11
Guest: Are you planning to do a ZiPS release on international players coming over? Do you know what it thinks about Tomoyuki Sugano?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do them scatter-shot. When they sign, I’ll run ’em.

12:12
RMR: Should the Astros give Abraham Toro a shot in the OF?  Eric’s scouting grades seem to like him quite a bit and there’s no room in the infield for him.  Seems like a better option than their other in-house guys outside of Tucker at least.

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They should, they’re a lot thinner than even a year to do

12:12
Tacoby Bellsbury: What if we immediately followed your instructions and have a food processor filled with pureed beef? What do we do now?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Add water and make the most horrific chili soup

12:12
RMR: Do the Cubs give Hoerner a full-time shot at 2B this year?  seems likely with them shedding payroll no?  What’s a reasonable upside?  Something like .330ish OBP with 10-12 HR and SB?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect so. But I’m not cheating and giving away projection!

12:12
RMR: How does the PT at catcher shake out between Kirk, Jansen and McGuire this year?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Jays even know at this point

12:13
Chris: “IMA GONNA MAKE YOU READ THE ZiPS DISCLAIMER”

I now see it was my mistake, much like someone who thinks beans belong in Chili

12:13
Sanford: By yours (and ZiPS’s) estimate, Pete Alonso probably peaked, right? 5+ WAR for a bat-only R/R 1B seems like the upper bound, barring Joey Votto-like plate discipline.

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a good peak!

12:13
Sharp: Who is going to be the biggest steal of the non-tenders?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I t hink someone will get Schwarber surprisingly cheaply

12:14
Mando: No Joel Kuhnel for the Reds?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh shoot, did I miss him in the rundown? Obviously he’ll get a projection

12:14
Denver David: Your chat intro says “let’s finish off our leftover turkey and Colorado Rockies jokes.” Aren’t those the same thing?

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You occasionally *want* turkey.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Guys, if I answer all the “early 2021 projection?” Qs then you won’t come back for the actual team posts!

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We’ll be done before December’s done (or VERY early in January) this year

12:15
Sanford: Great to hear more of you on FanGraphs Audio, Dan! Which team is most likely to go all-out this offseason and acquire more than one of Springer, Realmuto, Bauer, Lindor?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Glad you enjoy it! I like bringing in guests and being a little silly.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My plan for my segment long-term is to do a lot of this type of thing and some fun panels

12:15
RMR: The Royals are going to sit Franchy on the bench and play Michael A. Taylor everyday, aren’t they?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Or DFA Franchy after they sign Matt Kemp or Kevin Pillar

12:17
Sanford: Any reason to be concerned about Gavin Lux’s development, and would Turner returning to LAD impact that at all?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not concerned.

12:17
RMR: Pache going to get a starting job on OD?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It seems likely unless the Braves get two OFs

12:17
RMR: How much of Benintendi’s struggles in 2020 were injury related?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some, but he was down quite a bit before that

12:17
RMR: I feel like Senzel is a health season (no small ask for him) away from a real breakout.  Agree?

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think ti’s possible

12:17
Douglas: Do you think it could make sense for the Angels to include Jo Adell in a trade for Blake Snell?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If the Angels truly will go all-in, it’s the kind of thing that makes sense.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For most teams, it would not.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But having and paying Mike Trout pretty much means you’re in win-now mode because any .500 team becomes a 90-win one with him

12:18
Mando: Who should be at the top of the list for Reds SS? I go Kim, Semien, then Gregorius.

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: LINDOR TRUFFLE

12:18
Big Joey: Hey Dan, can you please explain to me why ZIPS loves Gleyber Torres so much? On the fangraphs “3 years ZIPS Projections” section, it has Torres hitting 44HRs with .940 OPS the next few seasons. Not complaining but why is it so optimistic towards Torres?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, its don’t a bit

12:18
Scotty: I can’t imagine ZIPs has ever projected a pitcher to have 17+ K/9 before Karinchak, right?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dunno, Kimbrel one of those years maybe?

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Well its don’t a bit?”

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Torres long-term is down a bit this year. Again, the three years on the site are still the preseason thre years. The only new ZiPS are the ones you see in the ZiPS posts!

12:20
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Who would be your sidekick on The Dan Szymborski Talk Show?

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On FG,it would probably be Dylan Higgins, our producer

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He gets all my nerdy video game references.

12:21
Chili Bean Suppliers, Inc: Your menu for chili is missing the most important ingredient Mr. Szymborski. A whole industry thrives on it. Please reconsider the error of your ways..otherwise your recipe is no better than …Skyline….we had to say it… Happy Holidays!

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the most important ingredient is not Mr. Szymborski

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Besides, my dad died in 1998, so you can’t make him into chili at this point. Or at least you shouldn’t

12:22
Dayton Moore Talking Head: What would be a good move for the Royals? (Let’s go with one snarky move and one non-snarky move)

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Trading Merrifield for the best package available. And maybe moving on from Dayton Moore

12:22
The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: The most important ingredient is Mr. Szymborski?  Is he making chili, or Soylent Green?

12:23
Tender Question: Dan! I love the content, please keep up the great work with ZIPS. Quick tender question – Benintendi has been a hot topic in Boston this offseason after a subpar 2020. Speier wrote an interesting piece last week in the Globe and Craig was asked in a chat earlier if he would be at risk of getting non-tendered next year and he said most likely not. After seeing guys like Rosario, Schwarber, and Duvall non-tendered last night, what does Benny have that they don’t? Thanks Dan!

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, it depends on what he does next year.

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No reason to call him a non-tender cnadidate yet otuside the sense that anyone who sucks or at least is overpaid relative to what you get on the market is a non-tender candidate

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Remember, he’s already signed for 2020 after all

12:25
Fan: Reaction to Ariel Cohen’s article today which kinda said ZiPS is bad?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Remember, these are fantasy estimates, in which playing time is important.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS takes no position on playing time, so you’re going to have some minor leaguers and part-timers that are *horrible* buys if you use the playing time in the projection

12:26
LFC Mike: But don’t you put your heart and soul and a lot of love in every pot of chili you cook Dan? Therefore YOU are an important ingredient.  Straight out of a Hallmark Christmas movie…..sorry about that…Could the neural network give us an out of control Quentin Tarantino Hallmark Christmas Movie by chance? I, for one, would watch that.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t put abstract concepts into recipes!

12:26
Big Joey: Do you think Torres can still become a 40+HR, 900+ OPS monster?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I still think so. People forget how young he still is

12:26
Bob wehadababyitsa boy: Hi Dan. I remember a chat long ago where you said your mother was good a picking president’s but whiffed on trump. Why do you think that is? Did she pick biden ?

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: She picked Biden.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s when I knew that he would win.

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Clinton 2016 is her only miss. I asked her and that includes senate, house, and governor as well, despite the fact that she’s lived in three very different states

12:28
Ross Atkins: More Alejandro Kirk or ALL the Alejandro Kirk?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: More. You have to share, so not ALL.

12:28
Aaron’s Brother: How do you forecast for someone like Austin Nola? There’s evidence of some skill changes. But also a lengthy body of minor and now major league data to consider. Can he be a top 10 catcher for the next couple of years? Longer? Or is he kinda like Austin Barnes going forward? (Which is still useful).

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is hopefully as sensitive to changes as I can make it!

12:28
Buck Farmers Only: What type of move should the A’s make?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One that adds wins would be the way to go!

12:29
Person: Chance of Eddie Rosario continuing to be Eddie Rosario in 2021, or a steep decline based on the Statcast numbers?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be what he is and fade.

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s only really a stopgap starter type

12:30
Buck Farmers Only: Who would be the FG life coach?

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Meg would be very good at this.

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve had great relationships with a number of editors over the years, but Meg’s the one that *challenges* what I write the most and gets on me for foibles and errors that copy desks in the past would just correct and not get on me about.

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, I have a tendency to use ten instead of 10 and I love a good run-on sentence.

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m someone who tends to need a bit of discipline.

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was a very free-range kid and a terror to teachers and I’m very self-sufficient. But that kind of upbringing makes me undisciplined in a lot of ways. For example while getting most people to do work they don’t want to do is difficult, it’s a harrowing task to get me doing an undesired task.

12:34
Sharp: Fourth wave ska?  Any bands you think fit that description these days?  Killing lincoln, streetlight, etc?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there is a fourth-wave, but I liked making a variant of that joke from last year in the Disclaimers and I think I’ll make a new oddball genre every year

12:34
Chuck E: Do you think Max Muncy’s 2020 was an outlier in a bad way or a preview of what’s to come?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a general outlier, but he’ll be in a long slow decline

12:34
Tom Emanski: Nontendering Schwarber is a poverty franchise move, right?  Even if he would’ve been slightly overpaid, its hard to believe you couldn’t have traded him for something after tendering him, whether now or at the deadline.  And it seems hard to believe they can really cobble together better production for 9-10 mil

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Cubs are a very disappoitning franchise

12:35
Todd Bonzalez: If the two “slices” that help make a sandwich somehow connect in a fourth dimension that is naturally imperceptible to humans, is it really a sandwich?

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If it’s imperceptible to humans, it’s not providing the stabilizing parallel contrary forces to the sandwich

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And if the fourth dimension sandwich *is* doing that, then we can detect it in the same way we detect stars

12:36
Guest: What is Deivi Garcia’s ceiling?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends on the age of the house, but if it’s as fairly recent one, drywall mounted to ceiling joists with multiple coats of paint.

12:37
Matt: SandwichGraphs is peak December content.

12:37
Mando: Listen to Five Iron Frenzy and the Supertones.

12:37
CeddyBReady: PLASTER! His ceiling is plaster. I’m fun!

12:37
Jimbo: Does Pavin Smith play his way into a starting role, 1b or otherwise?

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He does have some chance. The team released Kevin Cron helps clear the way.

12:38
CeddyBReady: There is a correlation to how active a person’s inner monologue happens to be and how much they love/use run-on sentences in order to express ideas they deem complex and/or interesting when the opposite is actually true because most people prefer efficient communication and opportunities to digest the information being slung at them.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, I have a very active inner monologue

12:38
Guest: were you surprised by any of the non-tenders yesterday?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Schwarber surprised me, but it really should not have.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think the Rockies were dumb enough to actually non-tender Dahl

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I’m a little surprised the Royals NTed Franco

12:39
Sanford: Ever dabble in Old School RuneScape?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did not

12:39
Buck Farmers Only: If a non-baseball following friend asked you which team they should root for and they want to follow a team that will be good and fun but a bit of an underdog, who do you recommend?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Padres

12:40
Matt: Dahl shouldn’t surprise you, given everything you publicly believe about the Rockies management.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even *I* was surprised by the level of incompetence

12:40
CeddyBReady: Though the Rockies release of Dahl is akin to a mercy killing at this point.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, it’s certainly merciful

12:40
Tim: Is it difficult for a systems like ZiPS to recognize when a player has made a jump in a particular direction, as opposed to following a smooth curve? Someone else referenced Gleyber Torres, whose projections seem positively influenced by performance a year or more ago, while I’m curious about Dom Smith, who is projected to have a significant OPS drop again (after outperforming projections by a lot for 2 years running).

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well remember, 2019 and 2020 isn’t two years

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2020 was a 0.37 season.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You shouldn’t be surprised about players moving less after especially good 2020 seasons.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: because an unexpectedly good or lousy 2020 season is far less predictive than doing so in any other season

12:41
John: Huge shame the White Sox squandered prime position as everyone’s favorite scrappy upstart team with their hiring decisions this offseason

12:41
Buck Farmers Only: Which worse but more expensive version of Dahl do the Rockies now acquire?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As I said on Twitter, the Rockies can bring back Pillar now and he’s six years better.

12:42
EO33: Hi, are your woba projections for 2021 posted anywhere yet?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They are not.

12:42
James Click: In your eyes, what is the most impactful move we could make this offseason, signing or trade, within a reasonable price range?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Really, it depends where the Astros are going.

12:42
Buck Farmers Only: Has a MLB player ever confronted you about something you wrote?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not seriously. I’m not a beat guy, so opportunities are more limited. I get occasional grumbling from agents more.

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The funny thing is, since I’m not trying to sweat out a quote or two, I end up taking with players more about non-baseball things than baseball.

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like I don’t believe I’ve ever interacted with Trevor May on a *baseball* topic.

12:43
Cat Latos: How do my cat friends do?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Justinian just left my lap about two minutes ago.Mercutio was asleep on a heating vent last I saw and I think Cassiopeia and Constantine were having words directly above me (my office is below the living room).

12:45
CeddyBReady: I’ll make sure to have my agent grumble at you.  He’s a bean chili guy.  I need new representation.

12:45
D: Why do you personally hate my team and therefore hold back its ZIPS projections and then also make the projections very bad for my favorite players?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe it’s you, not me?

12:46
Baseball Fan: Who is the most underrated player on the free agent market this year?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe Gregorius?

12:46
CeddyBReady: Why would you talk baseball with Trevor… I just want the Dan and Trev 24 hour marathon stream.

12:46
Buck Farmers Only: Who would be the least surprising retired player (minimum 3 seasons retired) to make a successful comeback in 2021?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dunno. Ricky Nolasco or someone like that?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Someone who wasn’t really old when they retired

12:47
Stevil: A few weeks ago I questioned if Perry Minasian’s job was as, or more, challenging as breaking in a feral cat. Well, at the 1-month mark since being neutered, the cat has settled in with only a couple of minor pissing incidents and is clearly one of the family (4 cats and 1 a-hole). So, naturally I can’t help but wonder if there’s hope for Minasian if Moreno gets snipped (metaphorically, or literally). Am I wrong?

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think there’s hope, but the ownership situation is a pain

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d be more optimistic with Moreno owning the team better.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unlike with the Rockies, who pretty much hire front office people who reflect ownership’s bad ideas

12:49
Eddie Waitkus: How is ZiPS expected BABIP calculated? Does it use Statcast data, spray chart vs shifts, other?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has its own statcast esque measure and the model is a blend of real BABIP and zBABIP (and stuff like park effects, aging, etc)

12:49
D: Have you ever considered doing all of the free agents as a “team” of ZIPS projections, right at the beginning?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s more fun to scatter it!

12:49
Tim Anderson: What do you think of Anderson? It’s so weird to see his 2-year production compared to where projection systems put him.

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPs is giving him a bump every year.

12:50
Tim: Discount the value of the shortened 2020 season all you like- do you still think ZiPS is accurately projecting someone like Smith? This is a very rude question, I know, since it’s your system. Still, what is your gut reaction to the numbers ZiPS spit out in his case?

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Will Smith’s projection doesn’ tlook all that weird to me

12:50
Sammy So-so: I know Tim Tebow has had a crap baseball career, but comping him to Arsenio Hall just seems cruel.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: heh

12:50
Buck Farmers Only: Who makes the World Series first Jays or White Sox?  O’s or Rangers?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: White Sox, O’s

12:51
D: Little to go on so far, but does it seem that pitchers are doing reasonably well so far but hitters (based on the nontenders) are not?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s really too early to tell

12:51
CeddyBReady: Dan, serious question, why is Popeyes Chicken trying to ruin my life?  I don’t like their spicy chicken sandwich, but the GF loves it.  I can no longer go anywhere else that sells a spicy chicken sandwich.  Can you pass this along to Meg so I can get real advice.  THANKS!

12:51
Baseball Fan: Who are you picking in a 3 on 3 basketball game: Tatis, Judge, and Trout, or Mookie, Giancarlo, and Glasnow?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The first three

12:53
Matt: Speaking of Moreno, was there ever another shoe to drop on the rumored Joc Pederson trade last year?  It still doesn’t make sense that the Dodgers were actually going to make that trade just for Rengifo.  There had to be another piece, right?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There wer esupposed to be a couple lesser prospects in th emix too

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And there was some luxury tax planning involve.d

12:54
Matt: Adrian Beltre could still do it, I think.

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, that’s a better one

12:54
Morbo: Dan. Dan! DAN!!

12:54
Morbo: I think Dan broke his space bar on that last response

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: actually, the spacebar keycap came off a little

12:55
CeddyBReady: I bet Judge can clear the boards.  Make sure he wears elbow protection though cuz Stanton has a hard head.

12:55
Sports are Cool: Who is the best ballplayer up there at FanGraphs?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t think we’ve ever tried

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect Eric might run the fastest

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can probably still throw a crappy curve, but I wasn’t fast even when I was in better playing shape

12:56
DominicSmithFan: Who are the best non-Bauer SP targets for the Mets?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tanaka

12:57
Buck Farmers Only: Worse sandwich commercial Judge or Bellichek

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BB because I rather eat at Jersey Mike’s than Subway!

12:57
Tim: Ask a challenging question, get an unhelpful and dickish answer. My fault. I knew what I was getting into.

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, what Smith are you talking about? Mallex?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Joe? Caleb? Other Will?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: None of the Smith have odd projections as far as I can tell.

12:58
CeddyBReady: I want them to reboot CSI Miami and replace David Caruso with Dan.  I think you could deliver all those lines way better.  Damnit I lost my sunglasses. YEEEAAAAAHHHHHH!

12:58
CeddyBReady: Kevin…. Kevin Smith

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even released the O’s yet!

12:59
Drew Haugen: How likely is a Arenado-Dodgers union before Christmas?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly possible.

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But then again, I don’t know if the Rockies are actually realistic in their demands.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It takes two to trade.

1:00
Jeff in T.O.: Who has the best ZiPS projection of all time? Mike Trout circa 2018 or something like that?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: All Mike Trouts

1:00
Buck Farmers Only: Best move the Pads could realistically make this off-season?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hmmph realistically. So I can’t trade Hosmer for Trout?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tanaka actually wouldn’t be a bad fit. Like the Mets, the Padres could use a #2 inning-eater dude.

1:00
Albert: I’m not sure how much incentive the Dodgers would really have to give up assets to pay Arenado market value when they have Seager’s pending free agency.  Obviously the Dodgers are willing to trade for stars at the right price, but it seems like an odd fit

1:01
Buck Farmers Only: Need a goof article coming up with the best jersey sponsor for each MLB team.  Maybe Old Bay for the O’s?

1:01
CeddyBReady: There are multiple Kevin Smitheseseses!

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Kevin Smithi

1:01
Morbo: How’s it going?

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not well. The losers overcame their fears and made It feel small until he died.

1:02
CeddyBReady: I’d strait rep Old Bay 24/7 if they wanted.  I’d put it on my bat before every at bat.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:03
Matt: What kind of turkey did you make this year?  I’ve been doing a variation of Alton Brown’s spatchcocked & dry brined for a few years, but I’m in the market for something new.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We kinda have multiple turkeys

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My sister makes the Official Family Turkey

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: while I rotisseries a turkey breast at home for extra turkey

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I especially miss Galileo this time of year. One of his favorite things to do was to watch the turkey rotate in the rotisserie for two hours, licking his chops the whole time

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even as an old cat, he’d see me take the rotisserie oven out of the closet and run to the kitchen.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He always got the first piece of turkey!

1:04
CeddyBReady: Cheek full of Utz… done and done… do you want me to put extra Old Bay on my Utz… I’m a F#$%&@ schill!

1:04
Yahred: What are your thoughts on the Mariners rebuild?  Some young players showed promise last year, should they run it back one more year, or start adding vet pieces?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re at the add vets phase unless it’s someone TRULY awesome that they can’t get otherwise

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Think of a Manny Machado type of signing rather than an Eric Hosmer one

1:05
Buck Farmers Only: Does Mike Trout end up as the weatherman on Good Morning America?

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mike Trout’s going to have three WAR at 73.

1:06
Logan: Bryant for Sanchez—who says no?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t imagine the Cubs do t his

1:06
MrMet33: What is the least amount of innings played at a position for ZiPS to give a player a fielding projection the following season(s).

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I usually give players a DMB rating with 3 games or 18 innings at a position

1:07
Jimbo: Cal Raleigh is the best catcher call up in 2021 or other?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THE RUTSCH

1:07
Matt: The thing about Hosmer signings is the teams making them always seem to be under the impression that they are Machado signings

1:07
Buck Farmers Only: Has Scott Boras ever left you a long winded voice mail about Hosmer?

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Actually, no!

1:08
Guest: If we took your chili recipe but failed to cook it, would it be a good or horrible tartare?

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Pretty bad. It’s got raw masa harina in it

1:08
Johnny5Alive: Lets say the mets go get realmuto and bauer, but they’ll still need a CF. Assume they can’t also get springer.  Based on the non-tenders, which of would Dahl or Almora be more interesting/better bets.

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not starting either over Nimmo

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to leave for another week!

1:09
CeddyBReady: Also, all 3 of those chiles are bitter af when they are dried.

1:09
Tim: Whatever. It’s your show. I’m not asking how the sausage is made, I was just using a specific player (who has been underpredicted significantly two years in a row) to ask whether it’s difficult to deal with performance leaps. I understand that it’s easier to just ascribe it to randomness and sample size. Your predictions, like all others, are just well-educated guesses, anyway, so I don’t take them too seriously- interesting to thing about, fun when they;re wrong!.

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m just not following at all.

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know which Smith you’re talking about.

1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And his “overperformance” has been 91 games.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d flip the question: what, based on information through the end of the 2018 season, would lead you to think a .268/.363/.574 line SHOULD be his baseline?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because remember, all players aren’t SUPPOSED to hit their mean projection.

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If everyone hits their 50th percentile projection and nobody hits their 10th or 90th, you’ve actually done a really crappy job projecting.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What you’re arguing here is sabermetric Calvinism, that just because something happened means it was destined to happen or even likely to.

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Even KNOWING how Will Smith hit in 2019-2020, if ZiPS had projected that as his baseline after 2018, without a requisite underlying reason for such a projection, I’d have said it did a crap job because that was almost certainly not his mean projection.

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projected the big Shane Bieber breakout in 2019, but I talked about the underlying *reasons* for such a projection.

1:14
Tim: His samples in 2017 and 2018 are roughly similar in size to 2019 and 2020. I was asking if your system might be likely to ascribe more weight to the earlier, at the expense of the latter.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s really time to leave.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for comign everyone! Se you next wek





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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