Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/2020

Craig Edwards: Let’s get things rolling.

Mike Rizzo: Is Carter Kieboom the long-term answer for me at third base? If not, who should I get?

Craig Edwards: I think so. His career has obviously not gone as planned so far, but he’s still just 23 years old and last year was a weird year. I think he should get another full season in the majors before the team goes looking elsewhere. Of course, if they can get Kris Bryant for little right now, then maybe that changes.

Dan C: White Sox in the offseason—major player or minor tinkering in the free agent market.?

Craig Edwards: I thought Ozuna made a ton of sense for them last year and that’s probably still the case. If we are talking about being a major player and limiting that to Realmuto/Springer/Bauer, then probably not. Springer would make some sense as long as he has no problems being in a corner. I suspect they will be in the reliever market and maybe get a starter as well. That probably means more minor tinkering than anything major.

Justin: Best/most realistic landing spots for J.T. Realmuto besides the Mets?

Craig Edwards: Phillies and Yankees come to mind. The Blue Jays don’t necessarily need him, but they seem to have money and if the don’t get Springer, Realmuto could make an impact. He would fit on a bunch of teams, but it isn’t clear who else might be spending.

Chuck E: If the Rockies put Nolan Arenado on waivers, do you think he would get claimed?

Craig Edwards: I think there are some teams who would just take him if available for just his contract. If I were the Mets, I might see if they could trade spare parts for him.

Metsknicks49ers: Percent chance we sign Bauer and one of JTR/Springer?  Also, am I incorrect in wanting nothing to do with JTR past 4 years?  He’s already at an 820 OPS any decline and he’s making 25 a year with a 770 OPS.  That’s not worth it.

Craig Edwards: I think most 5-6 year deals account for the fact the first 3-4 are the valuable ones. The players get the extra years in exchange for a lower, evened out salary compared to what they would deserve on a one-year deal.

Craig Edwards: As for Bauer plus Springer or Realmuto, I’d still put the odds pretty low. There are only three impact free agents and the odds of 28 teams sitting all three out isn’t great.

Anita Bath: The longer MLB takes to announce whether the National League will have a DH in 2021, the more it hurts the Players Association, right? That’s why they’re doing this?

Craig Edwards: I think the DH thing is more excuse than reality when it comes to the market. Teams are waiting things out right now because they are hoping for better deals later combined with hoping to get more good news/clarity about fans in the stands next season. The DH is something MLB could just say yes to right now, and it probably depresses the market a little bit for some players, and that’s probably why they won’t just do it, but it isn’t worth the players giving up anything of real value to get the DH when the overall benefit is so low.

Juan C: Which prospects will make the biggest impact this year?

Craig Edwards: I’d look at a few guys who struggled in their debuts this year like Jo Adell and Dylan Carlson. Ke’Brayan Hayes was great this year and he should build on that for next season. Nick Madrigal, too. On the pitching side, Nate Pearson, Ian Anderson, Sixto Sanchez are all still prospects. Harder to know on the guys who haven’t made debuts yet. Mackenzie Gore, Wander Franco at some point, Jared Kelenic, I’m excited to see.

Sharp: Odds that someone takes the flier signing Schwarber to catch?

Craig Edwards: Not going to happen.

brad penny for your thoughts: do billionaire owners not have savings?

Craig Edwards: They certainly put a lot of what they get into new ventures, like the areas surrounding the ballpark. A bunch of their money is tied into the equity of the team, which can almost act like a bank for them. They don’t really need to have savings because of how well MLB has done historically. But, yes they probably have savings.

brad penny for your thoughts: is covid not providing excellent cover for the owners to behave how they prefer?

Craig Edwards: The changes to the draft and minor leagues are things they  have wanted to do for a long time. The push for expanded playoffs, too. As for lowering payroll, that’s just something they always want to do when they can. This year’s excuse is better than most.

Apollo: Realmuto and Jackie Bradley or Springer and Mccann?  Better free agent pick up combo for the Mets?

Craig Edwards: I would take the former, though I’m not sure Bradley makes a ton of sense given he’s a lefty and the Mets already have a bunch of lefties in the outfield.

Trinian: Arenado to the Cardinals rumors don’t make sense to me. If Arenado plays great in 2021, he’ll opt out and the Cardinals would have overpaid for one year of his services. If he doesn’t play great, he won’t opt out and the Cardinals will be paying a very high price for the decline phase of a no longer great player.  What am I missing?

Craig Edwards: The Rockies have to come to terms with the fact Arenado’s contract isn’t a good one for the team. They will have to pay money down on it like the Marlins did with Stanton. Nobody is giving up a ton of value to get Arenado. The Cardinals or other teams would certainly jump in if the cost made sense.

Jimmy: Andrew Vaughn impact in 2020? Starter day 1?

Craig Edwards: Hard to know without seeing what else the White Sox do and whether Jimenez is a full-time outfielder or more of a DH. I would doubt he would make the opening day roster though.

PB&Js: Crazy the braves let Duvall go, bot I guess they’re gonna just let the (underpayed) kids play. Where do you think he catches on, and should he get a full time gig based on his past two years of performance?

Craig Edwards: He’s the wrong side of a platoon so he makes sense in a limited playing time environment for a team with a lefty in the outfield. He could be combined with Schwarber or Pederson or Rosario for a really good full-time outfielder.

George: Branching off the Kieboom question from earlier, Does the relative success of Luis Garcia (at least his passing of the eye test) limit Kieboom’s chances at recovery in DC? I wonder if he continues to struggle if the Nats might move Garcia or Castro to third for the foreseeable future (assuming no Byrant or outside solution)

Craig Edwards: If you can put Garcia at second at some point and Kieboom at third, that’s a better use of their talent rather cutting bait. It’s not like Castro’s really blocking anyone. And both of them succeeding would really wash over some of Washington’s farm deficiencies right now.

Mike: Most likely to Nats: Bryant, Hendricks, LeMahieu, or Ozuna?

Craig Edwards: I’ll say Hendricks, Bryant, Ozuna, LeMahieu.

Matt: 3 of the Rays top 9 prospects are middle infielders with an ETA of 2021(Franco/Brujan/Walls) but with no path to regular playing time. If you were the Rays, would you trade one of Brujan/Walls, one of Adames/Lowe/Wendle or keep everyone? They tend to make a few trades every offseason and have a surplus of infielders, so I can see them trading someone from that group for a catcher or more pitching.

Craig Edwards: I’d lean towards keeping them all and seeing how it turns out. Obviously Franco is going nowhere so you are really talking about the other two. Lowe has a team-friendly deal so Adames could be forced out at some point, but I think that’s a decision you let yourself be forced to make rather than move a potentially really good player too quickly.

Guest: Mets rumored to be offering McCann 4 years.  Is there any argument for that being a smart move?

Craig Edwards: McCann makes sense as the cheaper alternative to Realmuto. Once you get into the four-year territory, it makes a lot more sense to just get the much better player. McCann is also a year older than Realmuto which should factor into contract length.

Guest: Lynn to Yankess for 3 spects anyone except the Martian, Deivi Garcia and Frazier (dont think he still qualifies as a spect).  Is that enough?

Craig Edwards: So like Kevin Alcantara, Ezequiel Duran, and ALexander Vargas? That’s probably too much.

Bobby: Is Evan White a strong bet to hit .250+ and hit 25+ bombs?

Craig Edwards: That is not a bet I would take, at least not for next year. I expect he could do that at some point in the next few years, but that would be a good result, not a reasonable expectation.

Don Jenver: Rockies OF are dead last in DRS (-400!!) & UZR (-216) since their introduction. Out of 37 individual DRS/UZR seasons they’ve only come in positive once by DRS & six times by UZR. Coors is big. If they put together like a Kiermaier/Buxton/Bader OF, what might that look like? Would it even matter?

Craig Edwards: The solution is to have pitchers keep the ball out of the air. You have to have a big outfield otherwise the park is too small homer-wise. I think an all-D outfield would be kind of fun, but you also need to have contact or power hitters to take advantage on offense. There’s a give and take and it is hard to balance.

George: Rumors are that Nats are refusing to include either Rutledge or Cavalli in a trade for Bryant. I saw some crazy Duquette proposal that said Castro for Byrant just as a salary dump? What is an actually possible package that would make this trade make sense?

Craig Edwards: The more the calendar changes, the less likely a trade is. I don’t think teams are going to give up a bunch for Bryant at his salary, and it remains to be seen if the Cubs really want to just give Bryant away.

Nathan: If the Astros traded Bergman because he’s annoying, what could they get back?

Craig Edwards: A lot. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-trade-value-1-to-10/

Atilla the pun: Dayton Moore says he wants to add a “middle of the order” bat to the Royals lineup. Any speculation as to who might be a good fit? With Dozier and Whit’s positional flexibility, I guess any position is an option to add.

Craig Edwards: I really don’t know what that looks like for Kansas City. The non-tendered guys make sense like Eddie Rosario and Kyle Schwarber. I don’t think Justin Turner, Joc Pederson, Michael Brantley or any of the better hitters in free agency make sense. and they shouldn’t be trading anyone of value right now.

Jon: If Springer isn’t a long term CF, should Mets just roll with what they have in the OF and maybe add Pillar/Almora?

Craig Edwards: I think that makes sense, though if you pass on Realmuto, then Springer makes more sense as an immediate impact player.

Jon: Josh Lowe is 60 pitch selection and 45 bat control. How is that a 40 hit overall?

Craig Edwards: he strikes out a lot.

Tom: Think the Cardinals sign any of the non-tenders?

Craig Edwards: they always seem to sign a reliever, so maybe there’s a possibility there. They have to figure out their outfield so maybe one of the bigger names makes sense, but guessing they will wait the market out and then really start to like their internal options and want to give them a chance to see what they can do.

EbenezerBatflip: What kind of moves do you expect Chaim Bloom to make in free agency? He was a small budget-savvy guy in Tampa, do you expect that to be the case on a big market/budget team like the Red Sox? Obviously I don’t expect him to be a Dombrowski-style big spender, but do you think he will make any big moves in free agency or all small moves?

Craig Edwards: I wouldn’t think they’d be in on the top three FA. Maybe some activity on the international front and bring in a bunch of guys for the rotation to get some more depth there.

Jon: I get that Josh Lowe strikes out a lot, but how does a 60 pitch selection and 45 bat control come out to 40 overall?

Craig Edwards: You’d have to ask Eric, who I think is chatting tomorrow.

Gunther Centralperk: Do you expect Scherzer to bounce back in 21 or is he on permanent decline?

Craig Edwards: He was still one of the 20-best pitchers in baseball last year in a weird, shortened season. I don’t expect him to be at 7 or 8 wins next year but a five-win season seems like a reasonable bet.

Joshua: I can’t remember if I asked you this, or a different Fangraphs chatter, but if the Nats offered Kieboom, Robles, Crowe and Denaburg to Cleveland for Jose Ramirez, what’s the response? Thanks

Craig Edwards: It would be no thanks. To give up Ramirez, who they have more three more years at a very low cost, they should be getting a current high-end prospect to lead the trade as opposed to former guys like Kieboom and Robles.

Guest: Doesn’t a 3/85 extension (through 2024) with another 15 of incentives based on starts make sense for Kershaw and the Dodgers?

Craig Edwards: If the Dodgers felt like it was worth it to not have Kershaw be a pending free agent, sure, but they could pretty easily just wait for FA and then make him the highest offer and lessen some of the risk.

deuce26: Are teams accounting for fewer double plays turned when shifting?  I see a lot of balls that could have resulted in DP but aren’t because middle infielders are shifted.  All I hear about is how many hits are saved.

Craig Edwards: I would imagine they are, but I’m not sure how big the difference is. There are arguments that shifting a ton is actually a net negative overall because pitchers then pitch differently than they would, though that seems to be more of an execution issue than a problem with the shift.

Mike Rizzo: What do I do about my infield holes and RF?

Craig Edwards: Sign Jedd Gyorko or Carlos Santana along with Eddie Rosario or something.

Guest: Would combining Darvish and Heyward in a trade bring anything back for the Cubs?

Craig Edwards: So that’s like four years of both players for $175 million and more than $40 million in 2021 salaries alone? There’s probably a few teams that might be willing to take that on, though if the Cubs want something of value back, they probably need to pay some of the money down. Heyward also has a full no-trade and Darvish is limited, which could limit suitors even more.

Zach: Are you worried at all about Gavin Lux? Is it inevitable that he gets moved to the outfield?

Craig Edwards: Not yet, though he would still be a good player in the outfield.

Guest: In your opinion, Lindor is traded to whom and for what package?

Craig Edwards: I would guess the Dodgers, for something similar to what they gave up for Betts without Price also coming. I’m guessing most Cleveland fans will be disappointed in the return.

Pumpsie Green: Thanks for taking my question, Craig! I’d love to see the Jays get Darvish and Heyward for Tanner Roark and Anthony Kay, with the Cubs covering part of the back half of Heyward’s deal.

Craig Edwards: I know the Cubs are cutting back, I’m just not sure they are cutting that far back. Without Darvish and Heyward, the Cubs are a fourth-place team and I don’t think they want to do that, yet.

Gunther Centralperk: Have people in general been a tad premature in anointing Buehler the ace of the Dodgers? The argument just seems to be that he can throw 99 and Kershaw can’t.

Craig Edwards: He was better in 2019, but didn’t pitch a lot in 2020. You’d probably project them similarly at this point with Buehler having the greater upside for next season.

alan giggs: Hi Craig, I know it was months ago, but I really enjoyed your WAR article on Lou Brock. Without reading that first, I would have wondered why his WAR was so low for what I thought was a highly regarded player that was well before my time. I recommend anyone read it who didn’t actually grow up in his era.

Craig Edwards: Thanks. Here’s that piece. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-brief-note-on-lou-brocks-relatively-low-…

Craig Edwards: That’s going to do it for me today. Thanks for all the questions. We will get to more next week.