Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/11/19

Dan Szymborski: The ancient prophecy that was foretold, about a chat coming at noon has now come to pass.

Chet: Can you explain the frank Thomas comp for Tyler white in your recent ZiPS projections?

Dan Szymborski: There are two Frank Thomases of note in history.

Dan Szymborski: One is FRANK THOMAS

Dan Szymborski: the other is Frank Thomas.

Dan Szymborski: rather than use all caps, for the purpose of ZiPS comps, Frank Thomas is Not That Frank Thomas

manny offer : You think White Sox are favorites to land machado or do you see them as long shots seeing that they’ve never signed a marque free agent in the past and are also coming off a 100 loss season

Dan Szymborski: They have a chance and it wouldn’t come down to history, but someone giving them more money.

Xolo: What are the chances that Harper and/or Machado hold out till Opening Day?

Dan Szymborski: Very slim.

Gub Gub: What are you getting me for Valentine’s Day?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing

Matt: You should really move your chat to like…11:15, so I can run and grab lunch quick.

Gub Gub: Was Mike Tyson getting knocked out by Buster Douglas a big deal wherever you were when it happened?

Dan Szymborski: Probably asleep. It was a Sunday and I was in 6th grade in 2/90.

Poised: For2020, if you had to guess if Nolan Arenado is playing for the Rockies or the field. Who do you take?

Dan Szymborski: Rockies

BenZ: If the idea of a limit to the number of pitchers on a teams roster is implemented, will that put an end to the growing practice of position players doing mop up work?

Dan Szymborski: No, and I don’t think doing that is a pressing issue.

Dan Szymborski: In fact, you might see more of that in blowouts

Danny Ruskin: It’s me, the Chinese knock-off Teddy Ruxpin, here to tell you a tale of cheap vodka and a ruined pair of polyester slacks….

LFC Mike: Good Monday Dan. Is Yasmani Grandal looking to be a top tier catcher this year? Saw the ZIPS for Brewers…that ballpark and others in the central division alone help out don’t they? There goes the -.92R^2 for the chat right off the bat.

Dan Szymborski: He was a top tier catcher last year and there’s no reason to think that’s changed.

oldmannearthesea: Could you name three possible break out candidates that go against the grain of your prediction model.

Dan Szymborski: Stay tuned – that’s one of my yearly conceits!

Matty V’s smug ass: When will the perception of padres baseball not be a joke?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a joke now. People know they have an excellent farm system.

Joliet Jake: Have both Vlad Jr & Andujar on my keepers for this year – is Alex Reyes a good return value for unloading Andujar or should I be looking for more?

Dan Szymborski: I think given the uncertainty around Reyes and teh fact in fantasy, yo udon’t have to worry about ANdjuar’s defense, it’s too light

Dan: Lack of Isaac Paredes projection with Tigers was an oversight right?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he already has a projection in the system waiting.

Mark: How disappointed should I be that the Padres made the right decision in not pushing more chips in the middle this season?

Dan Szymborski: You shoudln’t be. Pushing more chips in the middle right now is for a big score, a Harper or a Machado. Everything else is garnish.

BenZ: This century, Barry Bonds, A-Rod, Pujols, and Miggy have all had periods as the consensus best player in the game. Who do you think will eventually take that title from Trout and how many years away is that?

Dan Szymborski: Person’s probably in high school now.

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Dan, Bryce Harper just signed with the Blue Jays for less guaranteed ?? than Stanton. What are the first six words of your reaction?

Dan Szymborski: You let the Jays outbid you?

Pappy Boyington: Ibsen Dana Elcar played Colonel Thomas A. Lard in the Baa Baa Black Sheep TV Series from  1976-1978  before he was in McGyver.  Back to -.92R^2.

Dan Szymborski: MacGyver had a first season episode called Trumbo’s World which amuses me now because I think of Mark Trumbo. The episode featured them fighting a horde of self-aware ants. Imaging Mark Trumbo fighting ants amuses me even more.

Brady Quinn: Giants reportedly offering Harper a high AAV/short term deal. But what contender wouldn’t sign Harper for 3yr/$125mm? He’s not going to bite on anything like that, is he?

Dan Szymborski: It’s an awkward amount of years for Harper to take.

Jim Bob Cooter: why does ZiPS love Moustakas so much? Projection was nuts

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks his line should have been a lot better in 2018 than it actually was

bb: Any recommendations for a music lover who’d like to check out some classical? I like darkness and dissonance and most of the stuff on the Clockwork Orange soundtrack.

Dan Szymborski: Rite of Spring

Dan Szymborski: It’s not that dissonant, but for darkness, Liszt’s Totentanz for piano and orchestra

Dan Szymborski: For bleakness, try an Allan Petterson symphony

Dan Szymborski: pettersson

BigBoiShoes: Commissioner in dynasty has been taking advantage of new guys that don’t understand things fully.  A replacement manager of a rebuilding team just took on Kyle Hendricks at a market rate (5yrs $14M), giving Verdugo (to commish) plus a couple good SP specs.  He accepted said deal roughly 24 hrs from joining the forum.  And the next day was asking basic questions the demonstrated he didn’t understand things yet.
The deal makes him better now and worse in the future, but his team is uber far away from contending and Hendricks doesn’t dent the huge gap he needs to make up.  He doesn’t understand his team’s position and the way the market works.

The commish thinks nothing is wrong with this. How do you reason with this?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t your league have a veto rule? It should

Martin Riggs Cellardwellerr: Is it smart of me to keep Harper at $29, or 20% of my budget?  If I do am I destined for my usual place in the cellar?

Dan Szymborski: 20% of your budget? That’s a little rich for me

Dan Szymborski: Oh, and previous classical music user, you can DM me on twitter for more and better detailed recommendations.

Uncle Cha: Do you think the late season success of Amed Rosario and Reynaldo Lopez were just hot streaks or a sign of things to come in 2019?

Dan Szymborski: I’m very optimistic about Rosario

Dan Szymborski: Less so on Lopez. I think he’ll be OK, and his K rate improved IIRC, but unless I’m mistaken, he had a big BABIP improvement too that probably isn’t maintainable

Chris: Are the mariners really going to cut vogelbach?

Dan Szymborski: Or trade. I don’t think they have a plan to use him.

Dan Szymborski: Once the season was pretty much over, there was little reason to not see what they had

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like Healy was good

Dan Szymborski: After April, eh didn’t really resurface to get starts until the last few days

My Name is Judge…: were white sox fans more annoying when you got 1000000000 jose quintana trade offers per chat or now when they are asking when machado/harper will sign and for how much?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had an issue with White Sox fans

Dan Szymborski: The most annoying is the Nick Markakis trolling.

DaveW: Do you think Senzel starts from day 1 or they wait until the end of April?  SErvice time games stink…

Dan Szymborski: Oh, they’ll play games with him, I’m sure

Dan Szymborski: I’m not 100% positive the Reds even realize Matt Kemps tinks

Ginny: Are the Reds going to be able to participate fully in the international free agency market in 2019?

Dan Szymborski: If I’m not mistaken — I could be — last year was their second year of the two-year penalty

Spence: What would be the most appropriate way for the Dodgers to finally honor Glenn Burke when they choose to do so?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the best *way* to honor him is, though it would be nice if they did eventually

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t think they’d do it with Lasorda still living. Teams don’t like awkward controversy.

Bregatron The Destroyer : ZIPS ‘regressed’ Bregman to ‘only’ 5.2 WAR. What’s the usual aging curve for 24 year old all-stars? His BB:K ratio last year was elite. Usually that doesn’t flip back hard the other way. What’s the upside projection for Bregman?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the percentile you’re looking for! I don’t have ZiPS on this laptop though

Jim Bob Cooter: has the reliever build changed in this year’s ZiPS? Feels like there aren’t nearly as many obscure minor leaguers with mid-70 to low-80 ERA- projections

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly, there are always some well projected minor league relievers.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is better equipped to deal with minor league BABIP though after years of harvesting some interesting data.

Dan Szymborski:

none of this ole’ BS: 10 players you forgot were orioles, go!

Dan Szymborski: The 2018 roster if I drink enough

Dan Szymborski: (It’s hard for me to forget an Oriole)

Dan Szymborski: Though from a history standpiont, Reggie Jackson, Oriole has mostly been forgotten

Dan Szymborski: And it wasn’t like a PIazza stint, Reggie was an O for an entire year

Bork: Hello Dan can we make this chat all about Brett Lawrie thanks in advance

Dan Szymborski: heh

Al Gone Quinn: Which teams do you see possibly using an opener approach this year?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly teams with better bullpens and weaker or question-mark laden rotations

Dan Szymborski: Look for teams with progressive front offices too

Dan Szymborski: So without specifically doing any investigative reporting, it owuldn’t surprise me to see the A’s and O’s do more

Nego: Is Yu Darvish done as a front line starter?

Dan Szymborski: Too soon to say that

Guest: If you were able to send refreshments, which refreshments would you serve?

Dan Szymborski: Beer

Guest: What are some telltale signs that someone is a serial killer other than pouring milk then cereal and eating pizza crust first

Dan Szymborski: A lot of duct tape and zip ties in their trunk?

Nego: Will the Harper/Machado contracts come with an opt-out in the first two years?

Dan Szymborski: I expect an opt out

Peter: David Dahl this season – thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be average+

BillyB: Assuming they can afford only one, who should the Stros extend – Verlander or Cole?

Dan Szymborski: Cole, he’s got more tread on his tires

My Name is Judge…: over/under on BOTH machado and harper signing deals:  Feb 20  where are you?

Dan Szymborski: Harper before 20th, Machado before 3/1

Joliet Jake: What position(s) are you happy to sit back on and wait til the later rounds to scoop up your starter?

Dan Szymborski: Catcher

Dan Szymborski: 3B

Bo: If Harper remains unsigned by March 1, what are the odds he takes a one-year deal?

Dan Szymborski: By March 1? Very long

Jack: ZiPS seems to like McHugh. Do you feel confident that he will get enough IP in the starting rotation to allow him to reach that value?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, ZiPS didn’t project a crazy amount of innings

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like he had shoulder surgery and missed 2018; he was in relief, but pitched very well.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he was injured in 2017 but he came back solidly

Dan Szymborski: Think of it as easing him back into the rotation

Adam: Do you enjoy the current style of strikeout/HR type of baseball today or do you prefer the high contact, low power/K style of yesteryear?

Dan Szymborski: Ideally, I wouldn’t want to choose one or another, but see a mix of them.

Dan Szymborski: But MLB’s designed in a way such that the former style is objectively better for scoring runs

Dan Szymborski: So MLB has the tricky challenge of finding a way to change the incentives.

Dan Szymborski: Without grossly changing the game.

Dan Szymborski: I’d definitely like to see the ball deadened

Dan Szymborski: And a requirement for bat handle thickness

Ben: Have Braves done enough? Donaldson is great if healthy, but still feels like they’re a 3rd place team in the East right now.

Dan Szymborski: I think they have – there wasn’t a lot that was NEEDED

Dan Szymborski: now, signing Harper would’ve been great, of course

CamdenWarehouse: Mark Trumbo would be better at fighting ants that fielding balls in the outfield

Scherzers_Blue_Eye: I hate the Nationals bullpen outside of Doolittle. Change my mind.

Dan Szymborski: The back *is* fairly shallow

PM: To this point has any one projection really surprised you?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPSs aggression on Kyle Tucker for one

sloppy jalopy: Why doesnt zips like springer? Also the astros sure dont look nearly as threatening as they did last year

Dan Szymborski: I’d hardly call that hate.

greg: Cat update please

Dan Szymborski: Not sure what any of them are up to right now.

Dan Szymborski: Galileo was asking for milk about an hour ago, but haven’t heard from him since

Adam Levine: I wasn’t invited to a single Alliance of American Football game to perform at halftime. What gives?

Dan Szymborski: I’d rather see Randy Levine sing halftime

Doug: ZIPS is going to like Tatis more than PECOTA right? I can’t get excited for a .199/.243/.372 projection Dan!

Dan Szymborski: Yes

CamdenWarehouse: Is ZiPS projecting the Astros to be even better than last year’s projections?

Dan Szymborski: Comes out around the same

Dan Szymborski: and you can push it one way or the other depending on assumptions

Gub Gub: What’s the most hilarious outcome for a Machado sigining?  What about Harper?

Dan Szymborski: x

Dan Szymborski: sorry

Dan Szymborski: Harper signing with Nats for exactly the contract they offered him last year

Dan Szymborski: Machado signing with a team but after signature, team and Machado all of a sudden have very different opinions of where they’re playing him in the infield

Xberg: Where do you stand on Freddy Peralta? He ever gets quite as much buzz as Burnes or Woodruff.

Dan Szymborski: He’s not a very hard tosser, but results in the end tend to rule

Philly Special : Do you see Rhys Hoskins taking step forward this year Or is he maxed out?

Dan Szymborski: I think he is what he is. Maybe a little bit of improvement given that he no longer has to worry with being put in an awkward place defensively

Chuncey Wiggins: Con: Baseball games take 4 hours

Chuncey Wiggins: Con: Baseball games take 4 hours    Pro: Baseball atbats and pitcher changes are done with the fanfare of the WWE……Are you down with this sickness?

Dan Szymborski: If only they were done with the fanfare of the WWE!

Dan Szymborski: I just want to hear Len Kasper go “that music…that music…BUHGAWD THAT’S PEDRO STROP’S MUSIC”

Gub Gub: If you permed your hair, you’d have a more than passable Larry Fine look going

Dan Szymborski: With a perm, I’d look like how Jonah Hill’s character in Superbad would look in a sequel set 20 years in the future

The Vac: Guys in NGNL are always trying to highjack the league I started and claim my Commishdom from me.  Any suggestions as to how to keep them down or at least my greatest threat, a guy they’re calling Qmish?

Dan Szymborski: A few public executions to instill fear.

Dan Szymborski: Like Michael Scott, you want them to be afraid of how much they love you

Mr. Wrestling IV: Making my way through the WWE Network.  Ric Flair just sided with HHH to beat RVD at Unforgiven 2002.  Forgot how effective heel HHH was.

2 in 26 : Thoughts on Sixto to the M’s?  Any acceleration in his path to MLB?

Dan Szymborski: Jerry dipoto WISHES

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll see how he does in the high minors. The team’s bad enough there’s no need to rush him

Dan Szymborski: But you still want to see how he actually does

Hebrew: Wondering your thoughts on a few guys with great projections but small track records: Nimmo and Bieber. Will they live up to the projections?

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly confident on those

Chapultepec: Does anything do more to kill a good sandwich than stale bread?

Dan Szymborski: You’re forced to eat it at gunpoint? That can make it awkward

Zwak: What’s the album you’ve listened to the most in your life?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, classical music, probably Perahia’s recording of the Schumann piano concerto

Dan Szymborski: Modern stuff, probably Nevermind or OK Computer

Zwak: If you could create a player by combining a hitter and pitcher, but the player had to use the letters of both players in his name, what would be your player’s name?

Dan Szymborski: oh god, I can’dt think of htat one fast

Dan Szymborski: Jeremy’s Iron!

My Name is Judge…: what does a minor league gm do?  it seems like the pro-level gm makes all their decisions.  <insert office space gif here>

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a job of that type, minor league GMs are more overseeing normal day-to-day operations

My Name is Judge…: what was your take on the service time proposal from the players union.  i liked it as every time i see a suggestion there are holes in it.  this proposal seemed to reward good young players for their production.

Dan Szymborski: It’s at least creative

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how I feel – the penalties being too high you’d have a incentive to keep players down even longer so they rank lower inthose awards

Dan Szymborski: too low and it won’t do anything

Dan Szymborski: Just thinking off-the-cuff I’d increase service time for FA to seven years but have all players on 40-man roster get service time

CamdenWarehouse: I frequently have forgotten about half of the 07/08 Orioles rosters when their birthday’s pop up on Camden Chat

Michael: Are people overlooking what being in a good hitters park all year will do for Andrew McCutchen?  He’s never had a entire season in a good hitters park.  SF and PIT were two of the worst.

Dan Szymborski: It’ll make his stats better, but won’t necessarily make his actual contribution better

DJ Tanner: With the FA market as such now, why is everyone still saying Trout will basically write his own check? He’s two years out, what if he has an injury or two these next two years. He could be 29 and coming off some injuries. Yes he’s in the GOAT convo, but that screams risky contract. I wouldn’t be into 10 years at that point.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say because we rarely see a player like that hit FA

Poised: Expecting a bounce back from Jon Gray this year?

Dan Szymborski: Cautiously optimistic

Peter: Who’s your Rockies 2B starter on opening day? Fantasy relevance?

Dan Szymborski: I still think it would be mcmahon in the end and a Rockies hitter is almost always going to be fantasy relevant

Dan Szymborski: Unless they’re absolutely horrific

DJ Tanner: I think the ‘Stros passed on Realmuto because they genuinely believe Tucker/Whitley/Yordan to some extent are their future. All three play positions currently occupied by really old dudes. Should be a smooth transition over the next couple years right?

Dan Szymborski: I think the lineup transition will be easier than the pitchers

Dan Szymborski: The contributing hitters are more or less the younger ones

Dan Szymborski: and while there are a lot of phenomenally talented minor league pitchers in the system, they have a LOT to possibly replace

Joe: Mike Elias’s interview in the Athletic today was a breath of fresh air as an O’s fan. No question, just happiness despite a 115 loss team.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Why does ZiPS regress pretty much every great/good player?

Dan Szymborski: Because that makes projections more accurate.

Dan Szymborski: Great players dont’ have pretty bell curves among their expected future.

Dan Szymborski: The better the player, generally, the more negative the skewness

Big Joe Mufferaw: Best baseball video ever? MLB2005 right?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball Stars

Dan Szymborski: and honestly, MLB the Show has passed those 2K/EA games

Shirtless Bartolo on a Darkhorse: Mike Trout has 35 facial hair. I don’t think he has shaved since his rookie season and no one can tell

Dan Szymborski: I know his pain

Turtle Jetpack: What possible reason would you have for playing Healy over Vogelbach on a non-contending team?

Dan Szymborski: Family being held hostage by Healy-rights groups?

Mark: Do you get as weirded-out as I do by people asking you for updates about your pet?

Dan Szymborski: No, especially given how much galileo sends tweets

duct tape…brett lawrie..??:

Carl: Have there ever been any cinderella stories, players who didn’t grade out as superstars but somehow developed into one?

Dan Szymborski: Half the stars in baseball!

Dan Szymborski: Pujols wasn’t highly drafted

Dan Szymborski: Piazza

Dan Szymborski: You can name ’em all day!

Turtle Jetpack: Is the Markakis signing really a problem if they had a competitive offer for Harper?

Dan Szymborski: No

Chuncey Wiggins: What is your least favorite baseball jargon?

Dan Szymborski: “resumed baseball activities”

Dan Szymborski: sounds like a euphemism

Dan Szymborski: If your friend had stomach flu and you asked if they were feelign better

Dan Szymborski: and they replied “I have resumed consumption activities.”

Dan Szymborski: You shoudl punch them in the face. Not hard, but just hard enough to nip that in the bud.

Dan Szymborski: “How’s your ankle Alan?”

Dan Szymborski: “I have resumed all pastimes reflecting of an ambulatory character.”

Dan Szymborski: <karate chop to face>

LFC Mike: As close to 1R^2 for any chat Dan. That is disturbing to me.

Dan Szymborski: I still don’t get this, what are we correlating it with?

Todd Bonzalez: Ever yield (zips)^2 by running zips on zips projections? I’m sure it leads to at least x4 times the accuracy

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is a great predictor of ZiPS!

Danny Ruskin: What’s the worst injury you’ve ever suffered?

Dan Szymborski: Tore my wrist tripping over a cat in the dark on the stairs and getting my hand stuck in the bannister as I tried to catch myself.

Dan Szymborski: Though stepping on a piece of glass and making a cut from under my fourth toe to the side of my foot and most of the way down was worse than I thought at the time

Dan Szymborski: I just tied it off with a sock I used as a tourniquet and went about my business and checked it every few hours to see if the bleeding had stopped.

Dan Szymborski: Took a really long time

Dan Szymborski: My sister, in medical school at the time, was absolutely furious about this

Dan Szymborski: She said I needed about a dozen stitches

Dan Szymborski: the right side of my foot was numb for about 6 months and then slowly feeling crept back up where the cut was

Dan Szymborski: But eventually it stopped. A couple of years later, I still don’t have feeling on the outer half of my pink toe and I think that’s permanent.

Dan Szymborski: And with that gross story, I bid you all adieu for another week!@

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!