Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/12/26

Dan Szymborski: Greetings all!

The Oriole Bird: How do you feel about the Chris Bassitt signing for the O’s?

Dan Szymborski: I’m OK with it!

Dan Szymborski: I mean, I would have preferred Valdez

Dan Szymborski: but given no Valdez, I’d rather have additional starter depth than not

mustachio: Verlander to the Tigers: more than just a nostalgia tour?

Uninvited Guest: Your jury duty story was great, more about that please!

Dan Szymborski: that was a lot of fun

Dan Szymborski: On Justin Verlander, he’s not a Cy Young guy but he can eat innings which has some use for Detroit

bringbackpologrounds: Who would make the all-time ZiPs overachiever team? Generational peaks like Trout and Judge? Longevity marvels like Ortiz, Bonds, and Beltre? Or mid-career leaps like Bautista and Edwin?

Dan Szymborski: Usually the greats are people who are people who overachieved at some point in their careers

Dan Szymborski: so nobody has a median projection of HoFer

PinstripedPride: True or false: if we were prorating by playing time G Stanton would be a Zips gain leader

Dan Szymborski: I dunno about that

JJ: A note on the search feature on Fangraphs, I’ve never actually been able to use it for articles. For example, if I type in zips, your name or a team name it says nothing is found

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I don’t think we ever have the articles connected wtih search

Dan Szymborski: it seems just quicker to just click on the name in the author list?

Dan Szymborski: But if it’s something that people want, I coudl talk to David and Sean

STiVo: The movers and shakers article on hitters is pretty bearish on the Orioles young guys.  (Given that they were top prospects, maybe many of them only had one way to go?  But that was a lot of dudes who presumably moved more negative than others.)  How do you think about this?

HappyFunBall: So. No big starting pitcher acquisition and half of the batting order looks to have lost their … umm … zip. vis a vis the BAL contention window, is this the “gradually” portion of “gradually, then suddenly” ?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly not GOOD news! As I noted, I think the Orioles are probably seeing something simialrly, which is WHY Ward and Alonso

Guest: I’d like to git gud at recognizing pitches live, in the ballpark, as a spectator. Any resources/vids/sites you’d recommend to do so? I feel like I get fastball and curve most of the time sitting behind home but have no idea how to distinguish a cutter or sinker live.

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto sure about resources. It’s really just training your eyes to patterns.

Dan Szymborski: Just watch the pitch and your eyes will eventually adjust if you make sure to see what the pitch was and the speed every time

JJ: Is this going to be the Sox opening day roster? DHing an outfielder and Yoshida sits the bench or gets dropped / dumped on another team?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect we’re pretty close to the expected roster. I think they’ll shuffle quite a bit

Guest: UPDATE: head still REELING from last week’s chat’s SHOCKING revelation when Dan called skyline CHILI !!!

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it doesn’t have beans by default

Dan Szymborski: they have to ADD beans to chili

Dan Szymborski: remember it’s two things

Dan Szymborski:

1. Chili shouldn’t have beans
2. Skyline is bad chili

Dan Szymborski: It’s not necessarily that Skyline isn’t chili, but that it’s bad chili

Dan Szymborski: My complaint about skyline chili is more *evaluative* rather than *category based*

JC: 90th percentile outcome of Soderstrom for 2026?

Dan Szymborski: 303/370/528 4.1 WAR

DansbySwansong: Dan, I don’t have a question, just a comment.  You’re the Man. And so was Stan.

Guest: If you’re ever in Milwaukee, you should dine dinner at DanDan, Dan

Dan Szymborski: do they have dan dan noodles? I enjoy those quite a bit

Mel Grubber: Caleb Durbin: 10% K rate. Looking through the leaderboards it seems really hard to *fail* as a hitter when you strike out that little, even with poor quality contact. On the other hand, he had a .265 BABIP last season and the projections think that’ll continue to be the case. Is it fair to think he has a sturdy floor as a, say, 95-110 wRC+ hitter, or is there more downside risk there?

Dan Szymborski: Worth noting that his 5th percentile projected OPS+ isn’t far below his 20th (73 vs. 83)

Dan Szymborski: so ZiPS at least agrees

Dan Szymborski: BABIP can usually keep a good contact hitter from being TOO horrible offensively

Dan Szymborski: I mean, if you’re a .280 hitter, you basically start off with a .560 OPS

Dan Szymborski: and with offense down around the league, a .280 non-1B infielder doesn’t need to be all that good with walks/isolated power to have at least SOME value

Guest: Do you believe that AI will be able to outperform ZiPS and every other existing projection system by this time next year? Or sooner? Or later?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure. ZiPS is a non-parametric model with supervised learning, and I’m not sure there are really all that many gains to eke out, especially in next year median projections

Jason: Will the Zips prospect list be posted today or tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: It’s schedule for the 17th

Adam: Dodgers & Muncy just tacked on another year at $10M… still a bargain, right?

Dan Szymborski: yeah

Dan Szymborski: 1/10 is nothing

Max Muncy enjoyer: Max Muncy has frequently talked about how much he loves LA and keeps taking under market value deals. Do you have a ZIPS estimate for how much his salary should be based on his production? Curious how it compares to his actual career earnings

Ralph Eugene Meatyard: What would a realistic NYM-Freddy Peralta extension look like if they worked it out in spring training? Thanks, Dan!

Dan Szymborski: for THAT one you gotta wiat for the extensions list

Adam: If you had to pick one player from your ZiPS risers, and one from your decliners list, to appear on the opposite list next year, who would they be/

Dan Szymborski: I still think Sandy Alcantara could turn things around, he did have some games where he looked like he really should have

Dan Szymborski: I could see Misiorowski as having SOME bust-y downside. A guy who walks a lot of dudes can go bad really quickly in a down scenario

Ralph Eugene Meatyard: Would ZiPs prefer Kumar Rocker as a starter or reliever? Does it have much hope for him in either role?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS still think a healthy Rocker can be a league-averagey starter

Dan Szymborski: though it does like him as a reliever. But probably still starter

Rympair: 18 Team Keeper Scoresheet League.  Would you keep Addison Barger or Matt Chapman.  Chapman is getting long in the tooth, but still puts up good numbers.  Barger’s potential is up there, but with the signing of Okamoto, I’m concerned about his playing time.  Which way would you lean?

Dan Szymborski: I think Barger will get playing time in corners. And remember, Santander injury helps things here

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably still take Chapman, though it might depend on what my roster looks like

Dan Szymborski: It’s too bad the Jays have’nt use Barger at 2B/SS in the majors, which he did play enough to qualify for most formats in the minors

Willie “Pops” Stargell: Thanks for the chat Dan.  Appreciate all your work.  Was just curious if there was a hitter, pitcher or team that your gut keeps telling you the projects are just way too high on?  Way too low on?

Dan Szymborski: I think ZiPS is too low on the Pirates. I think it’s grumpier about the offense than I am

Dan Szymborski: though I should note that one reason ZiPS is down on the Pirates is that it accepts a risk of losing Skenes due to injury, which is a very big deal.

Dan Szymborski: On FG sims, Skenes always has 189 innings

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS might be high on Royals by a little?

David: Is your Hamate bone intact.

Dan Szymborski: I assume so

Dan Szymborski: I mean, I play piano, and I imagine a broken hamate bone would be noticeable

Dan Szymborski: I’ve had a wrist injury before. About 15 years ago, I tripped on a cat and tore my wrist getting stuck in a railing near my door

Dan Szymborski: and about 20 years ago, I injured my wrist playing the beethoven pathetique

Jom: If you were a player what teams would you most and least want to play for?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, I’m from Baltimore, so I’d want to play for the Orioles

Dan Szymborski: Id’ probably least like playing for an LA team as I hate driving out there and you kinda have to drive out tehre

MF Luder: I think Zac Gallen could still have a 3.5 WAR season in him. Am I crazy?

Dan Szymborski: No, he’ sjust risky is all

JJ: Regarding the article search feature, we would love it! It also says “search articles” in the search

mc moohyun: How do you feel about the suganl signing for the rockies?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s fine. Someone has to eat innings so that games end

Karl Hungus: How much does pitcher extension play into ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: very limited. I have a ZiPS-related stuff type thing in the mix for a future model, but it’s not in there yet

Dan Szymborski: I’m *very* careful about model changes. Usually my models are 2-3 years behind where I actually am

g4: Looking at Jackson Chourio’s 2026 projections and saw his ZiPS WAR, despite fewer PAs, is substantially higher than his ZiPS DC WAR. The difference appears to be largely driven by diverging defensive projections — does this reflect ZiPS DC projecting Chourio to play more CF or something?

Dan Szymborski: There are always a few inconsistencies I can never figure out

Dan Szymborski: I try to remedy them with proper positional assignments that match with the FG DC for the final projections

Joe: Thoughts on Owen Caissie’s ability to become a 30/100 guy? Will the strikeouts be too much for him to keep every day playing time, even with the Marlins? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a possibility, he ought to hit for power

Adam: If every team lost their top three players for the season, who would see their WS odds improve/decline the most?

Dan Szymborski: The Cardinals might be the improver. ZiPS projects that right around .500, but there aren’t a whole bunch of great projections, but a sea of meh once you get past Winn and Wetherholt

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers probably take a huge hit. Because you’re likely losing 20 WAR worth of dudes, which is hard to replace

Dan Szymborski: or maybe mets since you lose Lindor/Soto?

Ralph Eugene Meatyard: Jackson Holliday is good but hasn’t yet been the force he was predicted to be. Is that because he’s still so young, or did the industry vote too high on him initially?

Dan Szymborski: I think people just don’t have enough uncertainty about ANYONE really

Dan Szymborski: people are also far too certain about even stars in their prime

Dan Szymborski: See the wild swings between 80th/20th projections? These are actually calibrated very well over the years – uncertainty is massive

Andrew Scott: Hi Dan: how do true depth starters (e.g., SP6+) get incorporated into the 50th percentile win projections that we see on the site? For instance, I’d expect one of Bassit or Eflin to be in the starting rotation if healthy, but not both. Does it soften the landing if you roll bad injury luck during the simulations? (Maybe the real question is I don’t know how injury risk factors into the projections)

Dan Szymborski: On mine, I have a generalized model that simulates a team’s playing time and then goes down the depth chart filling in what it doesn’t have until it’s filled

Dan Szymborski: It’s an approach that requiers a good deal of work from me and computational work, so it’s why ZiPS standings can’t be an every day thing

Josh: Do you think the Brewers will likely add a 3B via FA or trade or give Jett Williams a legit shot to take over?

Dan Szymborski: I think you could very well see Jett/Ortiz on the left side somewhere

Dan Szymborski: I’m trying to be more believing of the Brewers being ambitious about this kind of stuff, because that’s the primary reason that ZiPS keeps getting under the Brewers

Dan Szymborski: *I* do a shitty job at gauging what the Brewers will actually do

Dan Szymborski: if I see something in ZiPS that seems a little out there, my general conservatism tells me that teams won’t really just go and do that, but the Brewers have done some of those things and I’ve pooh-poohed them doing it

Karl Hungus: Does ZiPS pull anything meaningful from swing path/attack angle data?

Dan Szymborski: TBD. Not in current model

Adam: Which happens first: Rockies make the playoffs or Dodgers miss the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers miss playoffs

Ralph Eugene Meatyard: Greg Maddux pitches to Barry Bonds in 2026. Who wins, apart from entropy?

Dan Szymborski: I think Bonds, though it’s been a while since I’ve seen him and maybe he’s not a workout guy anymore and is all paunchy

Orange Fire: The Astros have been unable to trade Christian Walker this offseason.  I gotta think the fact that he’s under contract for 2027 is a big reason Dana Brown can’t move him.  Do you agree?

Dan Szymborski: yes

Josh: What kinds of things does zips include in its pitching projections?  Stuff? Arsenal? Any statcast data?

Dan Szymborski: arsenal yes, statcast data for quite a while now

Dan Szymborski: stuff type things are a work in progress

Dan Szymborski: I like to develop my own solutions to these things

Ralph Eugene Meatyard: A kind dog wanders into your home when you take the trash out. A Goldendoodle or something. How do your cats react?

Dan Szymborski: cats are kind of unpredictable!

Dan Szymborski: A neighbor’s dog once did get in my house back when I lived in PA. It was scared of Galileo and barked in Galileo’s face, while Galileo just sat there staring wtih the confidence of a serial killer

Dan Szymborski: I suspect Cassie would be hostile

Dan Szymborski: Justinian would probably hide for a few minutes before being brave

Dan Szymborski: and Constantine would just sit there

Dan Szymborski: I have two new kittens and Justinian met them with no problems. Constantine completely ignroed them because he saw kitten food to steal

DEF: Will Diamond Mind be using your projections again this year? If so, any idea on timing?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, and no idea

Guest: If you want to skip jury duty you need to make snap judgments and be obviously biased

Dan Szymborski: See, I joke about getting out of jury duty

Dan Szymborski: but I just couldn’t make myself do that out of the principle

Dan Szymborski: and I was really annoyed. I got a deferral because my first summons was for Opening Day and then I got the one you could get out of only for cause and it was the first round of the playoffs

Dan Szymborski: But I didn’t intentionally try to act in any manner in which I thought I”d be more likely to get dismissed

Dan Szymborski: because when push comes to shove, I go with the principle, even if it’s a dumb principle that only I hold

Dan Szymborski: I can be fairly rigid about this stuff sometimes

Dan Szymborski: It might be from my family – I was very close with my grandfather who was a lawyer and had a very similar personality to me

Dan Szymborski: We actually have a family policy of no ransoms ever. Which is a weird thing to hear when you’re five

Dan Szymborski: If my grandfather had to choose which family member he could rescue from a burning building and everyone was equally rescue-able, with no pondering, he’d have taken the logical choice and rescued who he believes has the most life expectancy remaining

Look At This Sotograph: If there was an OnlyFanGraphs site, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski: I would assume videos of me that nobody wants to see

kevin: No trevor rogers in the gainers article? how

Dan Szymborski: relievers just don’t have that much WAR to add

Dan Szymborski: errr

Dan Szymborski: I thought that was tyler

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is still fairly conservative with TREVOR rogers

Dan Szymborski: it projected a 2026 ERA+ of 94 before last season and 105 now

Guest: Victor Robles was a scouting miss in 2019. I started feeling queasy about him when his exit velocity numbers were found to be horribly low. Did zips have him high and was exit velocity part of the the analysis then? If not, what would his reranking be if you knew?

Dan Szymborski: I think ZiPS had him fairly high, lemme check

Dan Szymborski: crap, 2019 was the year I didn’t do a top 100

Dan Szymborski: but it had him *3* in 2018

Dan Szymborski: Player PO Team ZiPS   Ronald Acuña CF Atlanta Braves 1   Fernando Tatis Jr. SS San Diego Padres 2   Victor Robles CF Washington Nationals 3   J.P. Crawford SS Philadelphia Phillies 4   Luis Urias SS San Diego Padres 5   Gleyber Torres SS New York Yankees 6   Luiz Gohara SP Atlanta Braves 7   Kyle Tucker CF Houston Astros 8   Eloy Jimenez RF Chicago White Sox 9   Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B Toronto Blue Jays 10   Jack Flaherty SP St. Louis Cardinals 11   Mackenzie Gore SP San Diego Padres 12   Brent Honeywell SP Tampa Bay Rays 13   Mike Soroka SP Atlanta Braves 14   Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies 15   Michael Kopech SP Chicago White Sox 16   Nick Senzel 3B Cincinnati Reds 17   Aramis Ademan SS Chicago Cubs 18   Austin Hays CF Baltimore Orioles 19   Willy Adames SS Tampa Bay Rays 20   Brandon Woodruff SP Milwaukee Brewers 21   Forrest Whitley SP Houston Astros 22   Carson Kelly C St. Louis Cardinals 23   Alex Reyes SP St. Louis Cardinals 24   Yu-Cheng Chang SS Cleveland Indians 25   Corbin Burnes SP Mil

Dan Szymborski: Corbin Burnes SP Milwaukee Brewers 26   Austin Riley 3B Atlanta Braves 27   Austin Meadows CF Pittsburgh Pirates 28   Jon Duplantier SP Arizona Diamondbacks 29   Alec Hansen SP Chicago White Sox 30   Monte Harrison CF Milwaukee Brewers 31   Tyler Mahle SP Cincinnati Reds 32   Scott Kingery 2B Philadelphia Phillies 33   Willie Calhoun LF Texas Rangers 34   Sixto Sanchez SP Philadelphia Phillies 35   Royce Lewis SS Minnesota Twins 36   Francisco Mejia C Cleveland Indians 37   Logan Allen SP San Diego Padres 38   Walker Buehler SP Los Angeles Dodgers 39   Nick Gordon SS Minnesota Twins 40   Chance Adams SP New York Yankees 41   Franklin Barreto SS Oakland Athletics 42   Joey Wentz SP Atlanta Braves 43   Tyler O’Neill LF St. Louis Cardinals 44   JoJo Romero SP Philadelphia Phillies 45   Michael Chavis 3B Boston Red Sox 46   Luis Robert CF Chicago White Sox 47   Ryan Castellani SP Colorado Rockies 48   Marcos Molina SP New York Mets 49   Cole Tucker SS Pittsburgh Pirates 50   Estevan Florial CF New York Yank

Dan Szymborski: Estevan Florial CF New York Yankees 51   Bryse Wilson SP Arizona Diamondbacks 52   Jesse Winker RF Cincinnati Reds 53   Triston McKenzie SP Cleveland Indians 54   Jesus Sanchez LF Tampa Bay Rays 55   Jake Bauers LF Tampa Bay Rays 56   Lewis Brinson CF Milwaukee Brewers 57   Kolby Allard SP Atlanta Braves 58   Brett Phillips CF Milwaukee Brewers 59   Keibert Ruiz C Los Angeles Dodgers 60   Jahmai Jones CF Los Angeles Angels 61   Heliot Ramos CF San Francisco Giants 62   Jo Adell DH Los Angeles Angels 63   Jhailyn Ortiz RF Philadelphia Phillies 64   Stephen Gonsalves SP Minnesota Twins 65   Ryan McMahon 1B Colorado Rockies 66   Sean Murphy C Oakland Athletics 67   Alex Verdugo CF Los Angeles Dodgers 68   Brian Anderson 3B Miami Marlins 69   Bo Bichette SS Toronto Blue Jays 70   Chris Rodriguez SP Los Angeles Angels 71   Mauricio Dubon SS Milwaukee Brewers 72   Juan Soto RF Washington Nationals 73   Anthony Alford CF Toronto Blue Jays 74   Yadier Alvarez SP Los Angeles Dodgers 75   Kyle Wright SP Atlanta B

Dan Szymborski: Kyle Wright SP Atlanta Braves 76   Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh Pirates 77   Mitch Keller SP Pittsburgh Pirates 78   Miguel Andujar 3B New York Yankees 79   Justin Williams RF Tampa Bay Rays 80   Jake Rogers C Detroit Tigers 81   Beau Burrows SP Detroit Tigers 82   Bobby Bradley 1B Cleveland Indians 83   Harrison Bader CF St. Louis Cardinals 84   Tanner Scott SP Baltimore Orioles 85   Kevin Newman SS Pittsburgh Pirates 86   Jay Groome SP Boston Red Sox 87   Zack Collins C Chicago White Sox 88   Domingo Leyba SS Arizona Diamondbacks 89   Garrett Hampson 2B Colorado Rockies 90   Anthony Banda SP Arizona Diamondbacks 91   Colin Moran 3B Pittsburgh Pirates 92   Taylor Ward C Los Angeles Angels 93   Taylor Trammell LF Cincinnati Reds 94   Dillon Peters SP Miami Marlins 95   A.J. Puk SP Oakland Athletics 96   Keston Hiura 2B Tampa Bay Rays 97   Nicky Lopez SS Kansas City Royals 98   Peter Alonso 1B New York Mets 99   Zack Burdi RP Chicago White Sox 100

Paddy: How do ZiPS and other systems project playing time? For example, did the Santander injury impact Addison Barger’s projection?

Dan Szymborski: Badly! ZiPS isn’t aware of current events in that way. I have to make the decision on what to pick when I simulate the season

souldougie: What would be your old-timey baseball nickname if you were a player in the dead ball era?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Digital Dandy moniker would work

Oxface: Any thoughts on the proposed FG membership tier that allows the reader to hang out with your cats?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how big a market there is!

Idiotic Failson: The banner at the top of the website said you were chatting. Then, when I clicked on it, you were indeed chatting. Just as intended.

Dan Szymborski: I would hope so!

Guest: re: hamate. A doctor once told me if you scanned every 40+ year old man you’d find tears, strains, etc that baseball players go under surgery for and miss months, it’s just we’re not using those regularly so we don’t feel them / need to intervene

Dan Szymborski: I think my hamate is fine

Dan Szymborski: there’s probalby something going on with my knee

Dan Szymborski: I twisted my knee really badly crawling through a tube at the City Museum in St. Louis about 15 years ago

Dan Szymborski: (If you’ve never been to the City Museum it’s mostly a weird industrial obstacle course/kitsch depository)

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: SO my knee hurt for about a week and started popping every time i straighten it out if it’s been bent for more than 10 seconds

Dan Szymborski: My knee doesn’t hurt, but fast forward to 2026 and my knee STILL pops every time I straighten it out if it’s been bent for more than 10 seconds

Dan Szymborski: Despite my fatassery, my knees seem to have taken the brunt pretty well generally

Guest: Favorite FG colleague to read?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Baumann since he’s got that gene for troublemaking in his writing that I do

Dan Szymborski: but I enjoy reading all my colleagues! They all do something I don’t do, which is iwhat makes them interesting

g4: DanDan has very good dan dan noodles! And is owned by two chefs named Dan. Works on multiple levels.

Guest: Yes, DanDan has dan dan, Dan

jman: does zips take into account what type of injury, or just how long someone would be out? like lindor will be back in 6ish weeks, but it looks like historically players have reduced power numbers when back from this type of injury. can zips take that into account

Dan Szymborski: On a season to season basis, yes, but in very generous terms

Phil: I’ve noticed that you anthropomorphize ZiPS a lot–“ZiPS thinks” and similar. Is this a conscious decision or just something you’ve fallen into? It does seem useful as a way to make clear that these aren’t your opinions (and sometimes differ from your opinions), though it also makes it sound like you’re the genial spokesman for a reclusive and cantankerous genius.

Dan Szymborski: Things just work out that way

Guest: AI is overstated, but its best public-facing baseball use will be whichever site incorporates natural language searching / analysis into its site first.

Key Flaw: What part of the old internet or peak internet (the late aughts) do you miss the most? Sports-wise, deadspin was fun (if a little bit cringey thinking back), but I sorely miss cracked.com. Both were bought out by venture capitalist places (well, one always had one and another lost a law suit) and are basically bot-filled shadows of their former selves. I think once comments and message boards started to die and get replaced by social media, things also got worse. (I realize nostalgia is a hell of a drug….)

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it feels that everyone just hates each more than they did then

Dan Szymborski: I’m still active on both twitter and bluesky, but the negativity really gets me down

Key Flaw: I’m in a nostalgia question mood, but do you miss the exploration and discovery that was the younger years of baseball analysis? Like when I read Bill James in high schoola and then Rob Neyer and Baseball Prospectus in college and beyond, I felt like I was unlocking a magical new view of things that most people (even IN baseball) didn’t know. You were there doing things! You must have known it was something special and that it wouldn’t last, right?

Dan Szymborski: I do miss that feeling that there were more discoveries were ahead than behind

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Does ZiPS use high school stats for newly drafted high school players (with no minor league or college experience)?

Dan Szymborski: No. I don’t even know HOW to get those consistently and they’re probably awful predictively

Dan Szymborski: on that question before, i’m grumpy and sarcastic, but I’m also fundamentally a pretty live and let live person and don’t lose my temper easily

Dan Szymborski: but the negativity of the various tribes on social media just really get to me.

TB or not TB: Just realized Taj Bradley is younger than Zebby Matthews…

Dan Szymborski: Anybody named Zebulon automatically starts at age 50

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Which character from a baseball movie would have the best ZiPS projection? (Or one hitter and one pitcher)

Dan Szymborski: Babe Ruth, The Babe. Both hitter and pitcher 🙂

mmddyyyy: Which team would you expect to be the first eliminated from playoff contention?

Dan Szymborski: Rockies

DJ: After the A’s move to Las Vegas how long do you think it’ll take to have reliable data regarding their park factors?

Dan Szymborski: Not super long

Key Flaw: My older kids are engineering and math majors and are true believers in linear algebra helping understand everything. The more I see math, the more I realize they might have a point (stats are so much linear algebra hidden behind the scenes!). Do you also see linear algebra as super useful, or are other types of math better if someone with only a calc in college background wants to learn on my own? (Please don’t suggest set theory or something else that my son has tried to explain to me to no avail).

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of linear algebra I use, which I’m nto always excited about

DJ Tanner: Do you have gamble of your zips projections? Like Roman Anthony is projected for 18 homers this year, but Fanduel has his O/U bet at 27.5. I feel like you could make a lot of money just betting on your projections

Dan Szymborski: A bit. I’m not really a gambling personality. I can do better in the market, and books have always bought some data for me which would put me in a tricky place

mmddyyyy: How many floors do you have?

Dan Szymborski: I have a split level with an upstairs/downstairs split from the entrance

Dan Szymborski: Four bedrooms, two and a half baths, about 2500 square feet

Dan Szymborski: basement is completely finished and there are a couple side rooms, a laundry room, and a big family room

Dan Szymborski: I use the big family room as my office, it’s about 400 square feet

Dan Szymborski: So I’m surrounded on three sides with desks, have a bunch of PCs and TVs, a full couch, and one of my pianos in my office, plus one of the corners has piles of boxes of storage

Dan Szymborski: and I use the side rooms idownstairs for storage as well

Dan Szymborski: I have the digital piano in the living room

school34: who’s your dark horse team this year

Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna say giants

DEF: Does paying ransoms come up often in your family?

Dan Szymborski: it was something we were told when we were five

Dan Szymborski: also given our family secret keyword so taht we didn’t get kidnapped if a strange picked me or my sister up

Dan Szymborski: My mom makes jokes about the Ransom of Red Chief with me (including when Guthrie’s mom was kidnapped)

TB or not TB: PEOPLE SHOULD NOT TRY TO GET OUT OF JURY DUTY! WE NEED MORE SMART, REASONABLE PEOPLE ON JURIES! Think about who you would want judging you if you ever went before one.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, which is why at the end of the day I didn’t try to game it

Dan Szymborski: but I WAS surprised when I was picked

Dan Szymborski: I recounted it to one of my lawyer friends and what I said and he basically told me that I made myself far *more* acceptable not less

Dan Szymborski: I was literally asked the most questions of anyone in voir dire, including people who said that a family member had been victims of a crime

Dan Szymborski: so I was SO sure that there was no way I was going to get picked

Dan Szymborski: I thought journalist woudl be a red flag too. I assumed journalists would be considered troublemakers

Dan Szymborski: (nto that I was lying about that, that’s my tax return occupation too)

Phil: I once had a big argument with my brother about when you can subtly lie in voir dire–my view was never. If I were accused of a crime, I would want to potential jurors to be principled!

Dan Szymborski: The jurors instantly made me the foreperson too. I assume because I’m clearly comfortable speaking in public, because it’s not like I’m particularly charismatic

War2D2: re: tears and strains: I’m 50 and currently half-assing physical therapy for a rotator cuff injury, and two nights ago I threw ~200 bp pitches for my kid’s baseball team. Do I regret it? Yes. Did the little ingrates complain that I wasn’t throwing hard enough/accurately enough? Also yes.

Well-Beered Englishman: Also who was the second player you have analyzed under oath?

Dan Szymborski: well, Roman Anthony

Dan Szymborski: I spent 90 seconds talking about both of them and if Anthony had not been injured

Fans of the hall: Do you see MLB’s hall of fame getting smaller every decade as a problem?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: When I asked the doctor who diagnosed my rotator cuff tear if I needed surgery, he said no as long as I was not a major league pitcher and then reassured me that I would able to play catch with the future kids.

Dan Szymborski: Reminds me of Louis CK talking about his shitty elbow

Dan Szymborski: when the doctor basically told him “you’re not an athlete” and that he had exercises to do, but not to make ti better, just that it’s something he had to do for now on

Tacoby Bellsbury: ZiPS models pitcher arm injury effects, but does it take into account hand and wrist injuries to hitters?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Hand and wrist are two of the broad cateogries

The Oriole Bird: With the Bassitt signing, do you think the O’s are out on Gallen?

Dan Szymborski: probably

Guest: I know mlb is a multi billion dollar business but what has more computing power? Zips system or the mlb eBIS?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure they do

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have any crazy server.

Dan Szymborski: Depending on what I’m doing otherwise, ZiPS will be run on two of the three fastest non-laptop PCs: my current 9950x3D, a 5900X, and an 8700K. But this is just prosumer-type gear

Dan Szymborski: it’s not like I even use a threadripper

The Oriole Bird: Have you ever had a cat named Nero or Caligula or one of the other (more) controversial Roman emperors?

Dan Szymborski: I have not. I kinda thought it would be amusing to name the cats that ended up Justinian/Constantine as Leopold and Loeb, but my mom talked me out of it

34: Is that the oldest a player has been projected at 7.7? I guess Bonds, but that’s it right?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Dan Szymborski: hang on I can answer that

Dan Szymborski: All the 7.7s through 2024

Dan Szymborski: Name Year Age PO WAR   Albert Pujols 2004 24 LF 9.8   Barry Bonds 2005 40 LF 9.6   Mike Trout 2015 23 CF 9.6   Mike Trout 2014 22 CF 9.5   Albert Pujols 2005 25 LF 9.4   Mike Trout 2016 24 CF 9.3   Mike Trout 2017 25 CF 9.0   Albert Pujols 2006 26 1B 9.0   Albert Pujols 2010 30 1B 9.0   Alex Rodriguez 2004 28 SS 8.9   Mike Trout 2019 27 CF 8.3   Albert Pujols 2007 27 1B 8.1   Alex Rodriguez 2008 32 3B 8.0   Grady Sizemore 2009 26 CF 8.0   Mike Trout 2018 26 CF 7.9   Hanley Ramirez 2010 26 SS 7.8   David Wright 2009 26 3B 7.8   Juan Soto 2022 23 RF 7.8   Alex Rodriguez 2006 30 3B 7.8   Albert Pujols 2009 29 1B 7.7

Dan Szymborski: kershaw 2016 only pitcher to get a 7.7

Dan Szymborski: note that this isn’t combined, so ohtani woudl be in there too

Dan Szymborski: Ohtani only 7.7 last year (judge was 7.3)

Dan Szymborski: and then Judge/Ohtani this year

Dan Szymborski: so Judge second oldest

War2D2: A guy I work with here in CA got a jury summons for a grand jury, and he’s had to call in every day for the last month to see if he needs to go to the courthouse. It seems excessive.

Not Tom Holland: Assuming you at least dabble in podcast listening, I peg you as a Rest Is History listener.  They’re funny and interesting and their patriotic British slant gives everything a slightly different perspective than we otherwise get around here.  Yeah?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t, but I’ll check it out!

Dan Szymborski: the podcasts I listen to the most are an unexpected bunch probably

Dan Szymborski: The Greatest Generation, Jordan, Jesse, Go!, Everyday Driver, Reason Roundtable/Fifth Column, Ezra Klein, Central Air, RPG Backtrack, Central Air

Dan Szymborski: oops did that one twice

T-Bone is the villain: New kittens! What are their names?

Dan Szymborski: Flora/Luna. For some reason my family was involved in the decision even though it’s my house and my cats, and they woudln’t let me be too pretentious

Dan Szymborski: I was thinking of doing Portia and Nerissa

Dan Szymborski: (Merchant of Venice)

Seuly Matias 4 MVP: How accurate are heights/weights on FG versus sites like bref & MLB?

Seuly Matias 4 MVP: I’ve seen Angel Genao be listed at 5’9″ by MLB and 6′ by bref/FG.

Dan Szymborski: No idea what’s true

Dan Szymborski: For a good laugh, check out John Kruk’s height/weight on BR

Mitchellsob: What’s a 75th percentile outcome for Hunter Barco? Pirates are light on lefties and he seems like a solid back end rotation option in PNC

Dan Szymborski: 3.74 ERA as a starter! ZiPS likes Barco

RS: Do future projections come into play at all in your RoY voting?  Like if there are a 26 year old and 21 year old in contention and the older one has slightly better numbers for the season but the younger one has a much stronger long-term outlook, how would you tend to vote?

Dan Szymborski: None at all. It’s not a projection award

Dan Szymborski: I sure as sugar didn’t throw Schwindel a vote because of his proejction

War2D2: I used to listen to a dozen podcasts but then went cold-turkey a few years back. No real definitive reason, just kind of got tired after ~10 years of it. Now I’ve got audiobooks downloaded  from my library through Libby in my ear most days. The only podcast I still listen to is the Baseball Bar-B-Cast, but I’ve been listening to those guys since they were in college so it’s kind of a force of habit at this point.

Dan Szymborski: It’s easy for me because I’m always listening to SOMETHING and and in an environment in which I can

Dan Szymborski: on that note, it’s time for me to em-BARCO elsewhere for another week

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming all!