Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/17/22

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to a no doubt very upbeat chat!

Sirras: If MLB made an offer consisting of:

• Ownership can only fire one player per month, where “fire” means lighting a player on fire.
• The CBT threshold is lowered to $10 and players on teams over the threshold are subject to daily whippings until the team gets below the threshold

Sirras: Then:

• How likely do you think MLBPA would be to accept?
• Why won’t the players negotiate in good faith?

Dan Szymborski: lol

bk: Dan please, I am starving. A ZiPS top 100 Jays teaser, I need it.

Dan Szymborski: Hey, we gotta keep you guys coming back for SOMETHING. It’s just next week!

Mike in Cleveland: Do you have ZIPS projections for everyone involved in the labor negotiations?

Dan Szymborski:

Joe: Granted if they want they COULD sign both, if they can only sign 1 what makes more sense for NYY to go long term with Correa or Judge given what they stand to earn?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Correa – he’s younger. Though it depends on just how much Judge wants

Jeff: Who’s the best hitter in baseball at this very moment

Dan Szymborski: Soto

goodfor: What does ZiPs say is Wander Franco’s 90th percentile projection?

Dan Szymborski: 317/381/616, 6.6 WAR

Appa Yip Yip: Hey Dan, have you thought about using ZiPS to find the ideal post-lockout free agent candidate for each team? I’d imagine Carlos Correa would show up a lot but it would be interesting to see.

Dan Szymborski: I’m doing my favorite homes for each of the top FA tomorrow and Monday.

Dan Szymborski: That approach probably should be done earlier in the offseason

Dan Szymborski: or as you guess, I’ll end up mostly with Correa and some Freemans.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m not doing strictly the BEST ZiPS home, because then the article will be mostly just be Red Sox and Phillies

Manny Trillo: There seems to be a lot of unrest with the players with salary growth (and therefore CBT) not rising with revenue. While a fair point, wouldn’t somehow tying at least CBT or somehow broader spending to revenue would help solve this

Dan Szymborski: MLB won’t do it

Dan Szymborski: Even the *MLBPA’s* proposal has CBT growing slower than revenue historically

Dan Szymborski: Let’s put it this way: MLB’s revenue nearly tripled from 2003 to 2019

Dan Szymborski: CBT threshold has less than doubled.

Teddy: do you like footlongs?

Dan Szymborski: This seems sexual, but if it’s food, then yes

Joe: Who’s an under the radar Orioles prospect that you see as a potential regular?

Dan Szymborski: Does Henderson count?

Breezy: ZiPS believes in Fried with a 1.12 WHIP projection while Steamer and THE BAT do not with a 1.29 and 1.30 respectively. Maybe there’s not a question here, so ..  what up with that?

Dan Szymborski: It’s always hard to say as I can not tell you *exactly* what they do differently

14343: What version of JV do you expect to get this year?

Dan Szymborski: Very good, but distinctly below his best

Jfast: Who is the best fictional ballplayer of all time

Dan Szymborski: Bug Bunny

Dan Szymborski: BUGS Bunny

TooDamnTall: How much do you spend annually for data for zips?

Dan Szymborski: Very little. Dan has his ways.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Does ZIPS include actuarial tabling in terms of death rates? Should it?

Dan Szymborski: No explicitly

Dan Szymborski: but implicitly

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS knows when players of a similar age have disappeared, it just doesn’t know why

Moog Powell: Which is more likely:

A blernsball league independently forms and it’s success comes that the expense of baseball, causing baseball to die

or

Baseball slowly morphs into blernsball?

Appa Yip Yip: Would a package of flaked spicy beef jerky soaked in beef stock or water until soft then heated up technically meet your definition of chili? Beef minced fine, chilis, spices. I’m seeing all the ingredients

Dan Szymborski: I guess technically? Just kind of an odd chili?

Dan Szymborski: Not every chili is necessarily a GOOD chili

Guest: T/F: If Juan Soto had Cody Bellinger’s 2021 season, he would still be worth > $350 million.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, that’s fun. Hang on

Dan Szymborski: False. ZiPS says $313 million

Dan Szymborski: though that’s slightly WORSE than Bellinger’s year because Soto isn’t a CF

Gilberto: I’m on the players side pretty much absolutely. But, part of me can’t help but feel they did this to themselves. For so many CBAs they sacrificed the earnings of minor leaguers and younger players for the established players. Now that teams have figured out established players aren’t worth it they suddenly care, but where was this 10 years ago?

Dan Szymborski: It was always hard to be a complete dick to Weiner, a guy people liked who was quietly fighting a terminal disease at a young age with great courage, but those years were really bad for the MLBPA and they kinda had a “go along” attitude

Dan Szymborski: And a lot of where they are are those seeds

Tacoby Bellsbury: What does ZIPS say is Wander Franco’s age-90 projection?

Dan Szymborski: 0

TooDamnTall: It’s 1am in my timezone and I should get to bed, but I just need some DanTime

Dan Szymborski: This sounds sexual too. Let’s keep it PG!

Ben: Are the ZiPS projections for free agents based on a neutral park or the home park of their last team?

Dan Szymborski: last team

Jfast: What are some of the intangibles you hope you’ll be able to more accurately quantify (or bake into ZiPS) in 10-20 years?

Dan Szymborski: I want better injuries for one

Dan Szymborski: I’m working on a save model – trying to model team’s intent with stuff like contract length and time with team

ZeroGravitas: it seems weird that the base salaries don’t have built-in inflation adjustments. Isn’t that pretty much standard issue for union deals in any industries?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t say cross industry

Dan Szymborski: MLB’s proposal is basically a near-hard salary cap, with no floor, and a cap that increases by 0.94% a year. That’s clownshoes

Slapshot: What are your thoughts on that beer/chili “cocktail” that Cincinnati airport came up with last week?

Dan Szymborski: Reference my Brian Jordan discussion on Twitter yestdraay

Sirras: Is there a projection ZIPS has for this coming season that particularly amuses you, whether for good or bad reasons?

Dan Szymborski: I’m amused that the best Mariners projection is a guy who has topped out at AA so far! And that I don’t disagree!

Dan Szymborski: Also ZiPS giving no Pirates pitcher a 1.5 WAR projection

Sirras: Barry Bonds, let’s say 2015 – still projected to be above replacement?

Dan Szymborski: A tthis point? probably no

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t really have much to say about a guy a decade after they retire

Yuniesky Betancourt: Would you rather fight 25 squirrel-sized Yuniesky Betancourts or 1 Yuniesky Betancourt-sized squirrel?

Dan Szymborski: The latter. The Royals would offer him nuts and get me out of trouble

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: On Monday, Kevin shared that he was enjoying a leftover bowl of Cincinnati chili for lunch.  Many people believe that traditional chili (even what you would define as chili) is often better on the second day.  Do you think this applies to Cincinnati style?

Dan Szymborski: It does because it gives me 24 hours to plan either another meal or to escape to another locality

Moog Powell: What’s something you desperately want to be wrong about, but pretty certain you are correct about?

Dan Szymborski: The whole afterlife thing

Dan Szymborski: I’d really like to see my dad and grandparents and four of my cats again. But I don’t believe I will.

Dan Szymborski: Kinda bleak for noon on a Thursday, but you asked!

asnbrv: historically, does really 10% of all players exceed their 90th percentile projections?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

BT: Baseball book recommendations?

Dan Szymborski: I’m so behind right now honestly

Tom: Am I right in thinking Trevor story has kinda gone from one of the top free agents to someone who’s not considered to be in the top tier anymore? If so why?

Dan Szymborski: Just that he had a relatively meh 2021 and there’s someone a LOT more exciting at his position

Sirras: Which is more interesting to you – different good/bad teams every year or dynastic teams? Let’s say this is over a 5-7 year period

Dan Szymborski: I like a good mix

Dan Szymborski: and I need at least one or two stunningly incompetent teams for me to make memes about

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: If I put a single kidney bean in a 50-gallon vat of chili, is it no longer chili?

Dan Szymborski: It could be an ccident

Sirras: Who ended up winning the presidential brawl?

Dan Szymborski: lol, we didn’t do the final four because at the time, we switched chat providers and this one didn’t have polling yet

Dan Szymborski: and by the time it had polling, the momentum was gone

MilwaukeeBeerjays: Sir Dan of zipsland! Have you poked your nose into the world of video game speed running? If you haven’t you should. Blind punch-out! Beating FF1 in 2 hours!

Dan Szymborski: Not personally

Dan Szymborski: I like watching people compete

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t desire to speed run myself. I want to sit back and enjoy games.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to beat Final Fantasy VI in 31 minutes

Dan Szymborski: I want to wait for Shadow. I want to fight the demon in the painting at Owzer’s house. I want to finish Locke’s quest for Phoenix.

Jfast: Which baseball player has wow-ed you the most in person (for whatever reason)?

Dan Szymborski: Soto because he’s a guy who can barely drunk and has better plate discipline than Joey Votto

Dalton Wilcox: What’s the pandemic’s impact on ZiPs formula/s? Esp for minor leaguers?

Dan Szymborski: Not really a formula

Dan Szymborski: but it does make the projections less accurate

Dan Szymborski: since we have less data

Sean: The fact that Julio has the highest M’s projection doesn’t bode well for their playoff drought, right?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t really down on the M’s, especially if they make more additions

Dan Szymborski: it just REALLY loves Rod

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: If you order a chili dog, but the chili contains beans, is it no longer a chili dog?  Is it just a sloppy stew dog?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a hot dog with meat-and-bean stew used as a condiment

Guest: do you feel like you personally have good player evaluation skills with out Zips? Could you be an ok scout type? Or are you just a smart guy who made a great tool?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d be a good but not amazing scout

Dan Szymborski: Better if I had spent the time making and working ZiPS on scouting

Toucan: Hi Dan!  Does ZiPS know about a player’s teammates and/or lineups so it can project R/RBI, or is that just based on the player’s individual offensive projection?  Basically the same question for pitchers – does it it know about bullpen strength or defensive quality for things like ERA?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS knows *generally*

Dan Szymborski: since it’s at the offseason, it has a simpler model

Dan Szymborski: since we don’t know exact players

It’s the Yips!: Michaela Schiffrin has the clearest case of the Yips (Steve Sax disease) I have seen since Chuck Knoblauch & Rick Ankiel. Yet every commentator treats her falls this Olympics like an unsolveable mystery. IT’S THE YIPS!  Sad for her…the yips is brutal and nothing you can consciously do will make it better.

171: Can’t help but believe that MLB wants to contract MiLB to ultimately reduce the quality of talent at the MLB level so that top college players can go almost straight to MLB after the draft and teams can essentially run 1 MiLB facility.

Dan Szymborski: I would not be surprised if this is the long term goal

Ben: Leaving aside his hits record, do you think anyone ever matches Pete Rose’s 12 consecutive 700 plate appearance seasons? Semien and Merrifield were the only 2 players in all of MLB to reach 700 PAs in 2021, although they each did it in 2018 and 2019 as well.

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Jfast: Who is currently on the best value contract, according to ZiPS? Bregman? Franco?

Dan Szymborski: Might be Albies

Breezy: When you go to run a specific projection, do you do the Tom Hanks move in You’ve Got Mail where you rub your hands excitedly and slowly press your finger to the keyboard?

Dan Szymborski: unfortunately, it’s a two key combo.

Dan Szymborski: what I should do is buy one of those kailh MONSTER switches and tie it to running ZiPS

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: dan! its midday! afterlife musing are allowed by we cant say “DanTime”?

Brian: What team breaks consistently breaks ZIPS the most?  What current player?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody consistently does that. Unfortunately. After all, it would likely provide an opportunity to get real improvement from calibration

Dan Szymborski: Now, the team that HAS missed by the most is the Astros (ZiPS has underrated) and Cubs (ZiPS has overrated)

Dan Szymborski: but misses are, sadly, not correlated

Appa Yip Yip: I want to obsessively esper train my team until the game is laughably easy and I x-magic Ultima everything into oblivion

Dan Szymborski: I don’t always do the whole Gogo copying Ultima thing

Dan Szymborski: but I DO at least do a lot of esper training in that desert area that has the zombie dragon thing

Dan Szymborski: and get all the cahracters

Dan Szymborski: oh god, I gotta finish V pixel remaster because VI comes out next week!

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: One last chili question since I’m kind of on fire today: Do you eat your chili with tortilla chips/Fritos?  If so, would you be defiling the chili if you were to use bean tortilla chips?

Dan Szymborski: No. No as long as it’s not PA$RT of the chili

San Dzymborski: In your opinion, would Griffey have broken the home run record if he took steroids? More power + decreased injury risk has to carry him to at least 700, right?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really have a way to quantify that

Dan Szymborski: The effect of steroid suspensions as a dummy variable in projections is about worthless

JakeDuBois: Well, I imagine ZiPS doesn’t take trash cans and buzzers as part of its formula, so that can be forgiven

Dan Szymborski: this graphic I made for a tshirt is some of my finest work

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: It had to be done.

Dan Szymborski: WTH font are you using?

brad penny for your thoughts: are StL zips the most boring?

Dan Szymborski: Usually yes

Breezy: Bucket list of things you want to see happen at a game firsthand?

Dan Szymborski: I want to see a perfect game in person

Dan Szymborski: and baseball related, on my bucket list is for me to exclaim “sweet sassy molassey!” but it not be planned, just completely organic because something happened that meant that it was the only thing one *could* say

Richard: If 100% of the CBT penalties were given to the players to do as they see fit, could that move the needle substantially towards a deal without actually changing the thresholds?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Becuase the CBT penalties still dissuade owners

Waylon’s Slacks: Who’s better over the next 5 years: Jazz Chisholm or Jonathan India?

Dan Szymborski: India

San Dzymborski: What was ZiPS’ best breakout prediction?

Dan Szymborski: Bieber

Dan Szymborski: Going INTO 2019, ZiPS projected Bieber as the #14 SP, just behind Kershaw

Dan Szymborski: Also Scherzer 2013

Dan Szymborski: which wasn’t as much of a breakout

Dan Szymborski: but it was to me, it made me put $200 on Scherzer to win the Cy

Kevin: Why did Skaggs, Harvey, etc.. not return positive tests? Does MLB test for drugs of abuse?

Dan Szymborski: Opiates weren’t classified as drugs of abuse in the agreement until after 2019

MilwaukeeBeerjays: Yeah if you’re playing the game I agree taking time to enjoy an RPG is the way to go. But seeing the skills these dudes have is pretty impressive. You should teach Zips how to speedrun

Dan Szymborski: Oh, it IS pretty impressive. I enjoy watching it. It’s just a skill I personally prefer watching rather than actually doing

Hardball via Hardcore: What is Minnesota trying to do? What should Minnesota do?

Dan Szymborski: Emoji shrug. Go back in time and sign Gausman/Ray

171: JFYI Towson is an absolutely miserable pedestrian and commercial experience now.

Dan Szymborski: Towson was never a great pedestrian area

Dan Szymborski: remember, there’s basically no public transportation in Towson

Dan Szymborski: yeah, bus, but nobody really uses that in Towson

Dan Szymborski: I do miss Towson Commons.

Dan Szymborski: when it had Borders and stuff there. We hung out there a lot

Dan Szymborski: So many good memories

Dan Szymborski: Like the time we filled out the windshield washer reservoir of our friend Dan’s Honda Prelude with urine.

Jfast: What skill/trait do you most admire in good hitters?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still a sucker for mind blowing power

Dan Szymborski: if you can have good power FOR A MAJOR LEAGUER, that’s an insane amount of power

Dan Szymborski: Because you could put Juan Pierre in your beer league softball team and he’d be like prime Barry Bonds

Breezy: What is the best way to play that Semantle game? It’s so hard to think of words when every guess is cold.

Dan Szymborski: You want to start off not hating Semantle because by the time you’re done the daily, you will.

Guest: Is DH best for teams looking for more run production  from one player or  teams using it to rotate/rest players?

Dan Szymborski: You can do both

Mob Ranfred: Odds of a full season starting on time at this point?

Dan Szymborski: 20%

Dan Szymborski: MLB’s move towards the players they touted was pitiful

*: Anyone who’s played Backyard Baseball knows the correct answer to the “best fictional ballplayer” question is Pablo Sanchez.

Appa Yip Yip: Shouldn’t that read “shuffle into your own deck”?

Dan Szymborski: The card has to be playable!

Prospect lists: Which happens first, MLB season begins or Fangraphs finally publishes the top 100 prospects?

Dan Szymborski: The latter, duh!

Dan Szymborski: Prospect Week is next week!

Dan Szymborski: Top 100 was 2/17 last year. 2/12 in 2020, 2/13 in 2019. It’s not at a crazy later date

UKR: Who wins this homerun derby?

Aaron Judge at AT&T park or Dee Gordon in Mexico City

Dan Szymborski: Still the judge

171: When the O’s, Tigers and Rangers are good again, what teams take their place as the very bad meme teams?

Dan Szymborski: Could be A’s in short term (Matts gone relatively soon I think), Phillies, Reds

Dan Szymborski: Phillies I think are past their peak window already

Dan Szymborski: and Reds are talking cost cutting at every opportunity

Guest: not a question just a comment on your perfect game comment. I was fortunate enough to be at David Cone’s perfect game. The most remarkable memory of that game was an early inning rain delay (sun shower). I spoke with a guy a few rows in front of me. He had his four (?) year child with him. This was the boys second game ever, in his hand was a beany baby which he had from his only other game; Doc Gooden’s no no. I would have tried to market the kid to the yanks!!

Matt: Would the Angels be better served spending the rest of their money on starting pitching (and rolling with Rengifo at SS) or adding a SS with that money instead?

Dan Szymborski: I think you gotta add wins wherever you can get there. The Angels would be better with the Carlos Correa of pitching than the Carlos Correa of shortstop, but they don’t have the option to sign the Carlos Correa of pitching.

Appa Yip Yip: It’s very funny to me that Twins fans regularly ask if they could trade Austin Martin for starting pitching help.

Dan Szymborski: Well, his name does sound like Aston Martin, which would naturally make one worry about his long term health

171: If the moon was made of spare ribs, would you eat it?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t be silly. Of course I would.

Guest: I love how you didn’t comment on the meme itself but the font instead (just a quick screenshot and the Oogway meme and mashing them together, that’s all it was).  Serious question, though, are there any ZiPS projections that not only struck you as surprising but still make you think “am I 100% positive that this is the right projection?”

Dan Szymborski: Steven Kwan

Lem Kane: My first son will be born this year. What will baseball look like when he’s draft eligible in 2029?

Dan Szymborski: The owners will have a much larger pieces of the pie and idiots on twitter will still be blaming players

Teddy: Is Kyle Tucker an mvp contender this year

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him 8th in WAR among AL hitters. So I think that means yes

Jfast: A genie has given you the ability to choose 3 pitches to add to your arsenal. Which pitches would you choose, and from whom?

Dan Szymborski: Gimme Nolan Ryan’s fastball, Tom Candiotti’s knuckler, Clayton Kershaw’s curve.

Dan Szymborski: Hell just give me the first two. I’ll use the third wish for something else.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: Hopefully we’ll haev better baseball news next time we meet.