Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/4/19

Dan Szymborski: ITS CHAT TIME

Dan Szymborski: BUT NOT ALL CAPITAL LETTERS TIME EXCEPT FOR ME

Dan Szymborski: <full-on corrupt>

LFC Mike: It is rumored that during the lightning roundtoday  Dan is going to go all Adam Levine on us.

Dan Szymborski: When you come to my chats, you get my industry leading NoNipple© Guarantee.

CamdenWarehouse: Does ZiPS give you a list of comp players and then you choose the one that is funniest, most painful for that fan base, etc. or are they all the closest comp?

Dan Szymborski: Nope. I’ll sometimes change the spelling or just put in an outright joke comp (like Derrick Loveless last year), but I’ll never change one player to another player.

Dan Szymborski: I like there being a few Easter eggs.

LFC Mike: For fantasy baseball purposes  could you give us some hope on the catcher position. Any favorites?

Dan Szymborski: Wait till end of draft!

Dan Szymborski: There’s like a handful of good fantasy catchers but then like 20 more or less identical guys

Pedro: In the long run:Bieber,Lucchesi,F.Peralta…??

Dan Szymborski: Probably 2/1/3. Bieber’s the safest I think

LudeBurger: Here! *breathes a sigh of relief I don’t have to watch the halftime show after not watching a minute of the super bowl*

Kiermaier’s Blood Shot Eyes: I still think Count Chocula dies when the sun comes out. Non contender.

Dan Szymborski: Can’t he wear like a protective suit?

Cold Play: and you thought WE sucked?

Mac: Who will be the last top 50 FA to sign?

Dan Szymborski: Moose

CamdenWarehouse: As promised – I regret to inform you that Case&Keg has moved so it’s no longer sitting 83 welcoming everyone to PA

Dan Szymborski: Oh no!

Dan Szymborski: Then where do you go for beer in Shrewsbury/New Freedom/Stewartstown? Do you have to drive down to Maryland Line?

BSLyfe: What is the max money Harper can make playing in Japan for 1 year? At what point does Boras leverage the MLBs biggest star not even playing in their league in 2019 to get MLB to do something about this standoff?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’d get a gigantic one-year MLB offer before NPB

Indymets: So what are the chances Harper and Machado are playing a game of chicken, waiting for the other to sign, so they can ask for a slightly bigger contract?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell – there’s so much posturing

Broken Bat: Let’s assume the Cubs are one of the mystery teams on Harper and they swing and miss. Once Harper decides to make a call, the flood gates on many FA will open.  Who then do they go (FA) get to hot leadoff? To me, it’s their #1 issue unsolved. Pollack didn’t wait and he’s gone.

Dan Szymborski: I was trying to figure out what hot leadoff was, then I thought (remember Dan, you typo about half the words in chat)

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s an add left that actually fixes this

Dan Szymborski: They should probably just hit Rizzo leadoff and Zobrist when he plays.

aka22: Are the Braves really willing to go into the season with this bullpen? Feels like they missed all of the guys who would make a meaningful difference to the back of the pen. Other than Kimbrel, who else is left they could go after? Or do you think the group is ok as is?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s an OK group that could use another one.

Roger: Where is JT Realmuto playing on April 1?  And on August 1?

Dan Szymborski: United States.

CAPTAIN Horatio Crunch: Dan.. I challenge you to a bout of visticuffs at dawn……

LFC Mike: Was the Half Time show the Sky Line Chili of Super Bowl shows?

Dan Szymborski: That’s fair

Rick: To what extent do you tweak ZIPS from year to year?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing gigantic. Just the next step of various models

Trent: Which team still needs to do the most work to be a realistic playoff contender: Reds, Braves, Phillies, or Athletics?

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps Phillies – the division is very good except for, well, we know which team isn’t

Bob: No question.  You just scared the ever-living beezwax out of me with that Maroon 5 threat, so I’m here.

Dan Szymborski: You’re safe now.

Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: Should the World Series add a 7th inning stretch concert?  I bet they could get the hottest barbershop quartet in the land.

PieTraynee: I’m here to report that your grandmother’s ghost has passed on.  She did so kissless and without a single bean in her chili, but it was time.

Dan Szymborski: How does a ghost die again?

Snid: With a farm system as deep as the Rays, does it cause ill will amongst those who share positions with the other top flight prospects?

Dan Szymborski: I think it only becomes a real problem if it lasts until the majors

Highpockets: Robotic pitcher throwing to a robotic hitter.  First time. Pitcher has the advantage?

Dan Szymborski: I think hitter?

Dan Szymborski: We have more robots that smash objects than throw objects?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a robotoics guy

Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: Have to root for the Padres to land Harper or Machado, right?  Chaos!

Dan Szymborski: It would be a lot of fun

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Does a Pirates rotation with Keuchel contend for a wildcard?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

CamdenWarehouse: There’s a place near Walmart that’s v. good, but Case&Keg isn’t that far away now just a mile or so south

Dan Szymborski: Oh, there wasn’t one when I was there.

Dan Szymborski: I last lived up there in 2006.

Dan Szymborski: Where’s the case&keg then? Down Mt. Airy or somethign?

Curlin: If the owners are assuming there will be a redistribution of salaries toward younger players in the next CBA, could that be playing a role in the hesitation to lock in Harper/Machado to very long deals at current market rates for veterans?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re assuming any such thing

tim: Hey Dan — any subjective disagreements with any of the Reds projections? i personally might take the “over” on Gennett and Peraza

Dan Szymborski: I t hink t hey’re mostly spot-on, though I may take the over on Puig

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: A “hot leadoff” is a trending category on Brazzers.

CamdenWarehouse: Breaking: Dan Szymborski rules out Realmuto trade to Blue Jays

Dan Szymborski: I am!

Dan Szymborski: Now, the Blue Jays are at home on April 1st (not August 1st), but they’re playing the Orioles, who will also not be acquiring Realmuto

PTBNL: Is Zips a useful tool for evaluating trades? For example could you look at the Archer trade and evaluate the zips projections for all players evolved? Or do those projections not go far enough into the future to evaluate value in that way?

Dan Szymborski: I usually do.

Dan Szymborski: Projections are useful in a lot of applications, as long as you know what they’re good at and what they’re not

YKnotDisco?!: What would be more fun than watching the Swedish Chef (attempting to) put together IKEA furniture?

BK: Is it possible the Braves have 2 (or maybe 3 if Donaldson returns to form) of the best position players in the NL?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Arguably they coudl have 45

Dan Szymborski: 4

Dan Szymborski: and could

Fredbird: The Cardinals seem like SUCH AN OBVIOUS FIT for Harper: youth, core position player, handedness… Is management really not in on him, or is it just a facade (aka “The Cards are the Mystery Team”)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to tell with them. It’s usually a very cool, calm, collected franchise that doesn’t give in to free agent exuberance, but I think they feel the divisional heat and may be more aggressive than they would normally be here

BobbyS: Ever considered streaming on Twitch? Games, cats, ZiPS things? Seems it’d be fariky easy for you to make partner, and get all the amusing emotes!

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done some SNES streaming, but my schedule is such that it’s hard to come up with a regular Twitch schedule.

KB: Which FA signing would increase the Phillies World Series chances the most?

Dan Szymborski: Harper and Machado are pretty even

CamdenWarehouse: You need cyborg pitchers to deal with robot hitters

PD: Other than signing Harper or Machado, is there an available FA that could really provide a significant upgrade over who the Pirates have currently?

Dan Szymborski: Keuchel

Scott (Robotics Guy): It’s gotta be easier to set an object on a trajectory at a given velocity (i.e. pitch a ball) than to 1. Track said object 2. Set another object in motion to 3. make a productive collision between objects 1 and 2 (bat a ball)

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but we have such experience tracking missiles and stuff

Dave in London: Broadly speaking, how often does ZIPS forecast a genuine breakthrough for a player? Only rarely?

Dan Szymborski: You see more in the probabilities than the mean projections, I’ll frequently note when it happens.

Mac: O’s are playing in Canada on April 1. You just ruined everyone from Baltimore’s day by saying they’re not trading for Realmuto!

CamdenWarehouse: in the shopping center across the street from the pizza hut if you remember where that

Dan Szymborski: That weird little shopping center that I don’t think I ever went to in 9 years across from Mason-Dixon Family Restaurant?

Dan Szymborski: Shoot, if I still lived there, that woudl be convenient.

Dan Szymborski: What I really miss was this real hole-in-the-wall sub shop that was there until like 2002 Fiorentino’s.

Wander: Do you think Madbum has any more ace seasons left? Do you think he can come back like Verlander did? Or is this spin rate thing permanent?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a good #2

Jack: Is there a location I could find ZIPS projections from previous seasons?

Dan Szymborski: Usually if people ask me, I’ll send them a spreadsheet

Scott: Has Jerry DiPoto built a roster that

Dan Szymborski: has every player traded 50 times? Yes.

Scott: Has Jerry DiPoto actually built a roster that’s…OK? Seattle fans are expecting a tank but I feel like they are screwing up the tanking idea.

Dan Szymborski: OK-minus

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a losing team, but not notably too far into the loss column

Soto: Do you think Votto or Cano have anymore 5 WAR seasons?

Dan Szymborski: I think Votto is likelier

CamdenWarehouse: Law thinks the Orioles farm system is the worst despite last year’s trades. They didn’t acquire any stars, but are they really that bad?

Dan Szymborski: It was REALLY empty before.

Dan Szymborski: If I start exercising more than I currently do for a month, I’ll be doing better than I was, but still pretty bad

Mystery Chatter: Are FA contracts really all about the $? I bet Harper and Machado are paying attention to teams’ pitches about plans to win, rosters, facilities, city amenities, etc. You?

Dan Szymborski: In the end, # talks

Joe: Rank your favorite Towson/Timonium bars. Or don’t. You’re an adult.

Dan Szymborski: Padonia Station was always one of our favorite places to hang out.

Dan Szymborski: Mt. Washington Tavern

Dan Szymborski: We used to hang out at Damon’s when that franchise was a thing because they had All-You-Can-Eat Ribs for $19.99 during Monday Night Football

Dan Szymborski: Since I slept through most of 9/11, my most vivid memories from that time were being at Damon’s the night before, that was the game in which Ed McCaffrey’s leg was shattered

Dan Szymborski: And Rodney Williams had that 90 yard punt in his NFL debut

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you think either Bauer or Carrasco will overtake Kluber as top dog in the Cleveland rotation in ’19?

Dan Szymborski: No

Jason N: The Padres interest in Machado was reported ~2 weeks ago but no meeting yet.  Harper meeting within days of the reports of Padres interest.  Can we read anything into that?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t. Everyone’s doing lots of meetings

zurzles: At what point do Machado/Harper start angling for a 3/120ish deal and pray the next CBA helps them out for a second contract? Would any teams actually offer that?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they need to in the end

Eminor3rd: If Bryce Harper ________, then Manny Machado must _________. This means here’s nothing left for Mike Moustakas except _________.

Dan Szymborski: is a baseball player, be a baseball player. Making less money each year until he dies.

Snid: How are the Rockies thinking of using Cargo if resigned?

Dan Szymborski: Way too often.

aka22: Would Dansby Swanson be enough to land Realmuto? I want the Braves to pull that off after signing Machado. Could be a couple of nice compliments to Markakis led lineup!

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Minnie Minoso: I noticed you tend to give out projections one year beyond a player retiring.  Will you be doing the same for players who have signed overseas, like Jabari Blash?

Dan Szymborski: I typically do.

Alan: If you were to put chili between two slices of bread, does it become a chili sandwich, or does the bread make it no longer chili, and thus a new entity entirely?

Dan Szymborski: As long as it doesn’t have beans, it’s a chili sandwich. If it does, it’s a bean-and-meat-stew sandwich.

BobbyS: Schedule schmedule! 3am Galileo and Dusty Diamond’s All-Star Softball streams!

Gub Gub: Did you know ahead of time that Omaha Steaks is low-quality crap now?  This burger is terrible.  You owe me.  You have to eat a mediocre burger.

Dan Szymborski: When did I talk about Omaha steaks?

Dan Szymborski: I get steaks from a local butcher!

Gub Gub: Which one of the Wild Hogs are you?  Dudley?  A rotten Del Fuego?

Dan Szymborski: Was there an overweight sarcastic del feugo?

Dan Szymborski: fuego

Dan Szymborski: That was the most generic movie. I saw that flying over to London in 2007 for my sister’s first wedding and I immediately forgot most of it the moment it was over.

BK: How much more effort would it take to create a zips for like the KBO or the Japanese league and then maybe how it would translate to the MLB? Do you think this would have any value?

Dan Szymborski: I have translations for MLB projections, but I’ve never really thought about actually projecting *for* NPB or KBO

Purple Mays Haze: If Vlad was exactly 4 years older (at all levels), what would his ZIPS projection have been?

Dan Szymborski: Oooh, that’s a fun one.

Minnie Minoso: Wilmer Flores fell through the cracks of Arizona and NYM ZiPs.  Any chance I can get a projection for him?

Dan Szymborski: I tweeted him at some point!

Dan Szymborski: If i Just told you, then the people who endure my twitter feed will feel like their struggles were pointless

Dan Szymborski: Four year older Vlad

Dan Szymborski: BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF + WAR
.273 .340 .443 105 406 58 111 20 2 15 57 40 63 4 5 4 1 6 112 1.5

Rox Fan: Odds that Arenado signs an extension?

Dan Szymborski: 60%

Joe: Padonia station is no more. RIP

Dan Szymborski: After it became Padonia Ale House, didn’t htey close it and reopen it?

BK:

BK: Also, what the hell was with Harper’s tweet last night? “Loading…”

Dan Szymborski: He was playing some original PlayStation games.

Case and Keg: Actually, they sell beer at the Giant in Shrewsbury now…

Dan Szymborski: Whoa, PA allows that now?

Dan Szymborski: It used to be you could only buy a gigantic amount of beer. No grocery store. And liquor in a completely separate state-run store

Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: Did Baltimore embrace “The Wire” or did the tourism council lead a campaign to discredit it?

Dan Szymborski: Embrace

Dan Szymborski: At least as I remember

Matt W: Did fangraphs make a huge mistake whent hey decided to call if fWAR instead of gWAR?

Dan Szymborski: No risk of weird trademark lawsuits

Scott (Robotics Guy): chili sandwich = sloppy joe more or less?

Dan Szymborski: NO

Dan Szymborski: If you’re putting ketchup in your chili, I’m going to have to ban your IP!

Everything is Bigger in Texas: Trying to convince people that the Rangers need to do more than sign Harper to become a championship team.  What is a good resource to look at projected wins/losses for 2019?

Dan Szymborski: The Depth Charts have Steamer ready!

Doug: Harper is a better fit for the Padres than Machado. Change my mind.

Dan Szymborski: They ahve ten billion outfielders. Not as deep at 3B

ke’bryan mays hayes: It’s hard to gauge Neal Huntington’s reputation since he’s such a lightning rod in Pittsburgh…what’s your rating of him on a 1 to 7 scale?

Dan Szymborski: 535

Dan Szymborski: 5.5

Alex: first manager fired this season is _________?

Dan Szymborski: If the Nats start slow, I can see Martinez get a quick hook

GSon: Does Fangraphs intend to up their coverage of the Caribbean World Series, wherever it’s played?.

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I don’t think it’s come up

PieTraynee: A ghost dies the moment Adam Levine removes his shirt unprovoked during a superbowl halftime show.

Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: Omaha Steaks are neither steaks nor from Omaha.

Steak-Umm: Omaha? Pfft, talk about us more!

Alex: T/F: Tony Clark’s still the MLBPA Director at this time next year.

Dan Szymborski: T

Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: So far in ZiPS, which (non-mistake) projections has made you go “hmmmmmm” the most?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS not being worried even a smidgen about Bellinger maybe?

Lazzaro Da Fietta: It’s time for a Dodger/Giant trade. Joc Pederson for Will Smith. Who says no, Zaidi or Andrew?

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers say no I think

Outta my way, Gyorkass: I joined this chat a half hour in. Please tell me that doesn’t mean I need to subject myself to a half hour worth of the Super Bowl halftime show.

Dan Szymborski: You have to see the first part, but you escape seeing him shirtless

Alex: Would you ever consider doing a Jon Heyman-style bitmoji of yourself as your avi?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe, I dunno. I usually just me.

Dan Szymborski: I like to get people used to my gigantic head before they meet me so that they dont’ run away and call a parade organizer to tell them one of the balloons got away

Joe: I think the Ale House is closed now, too.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I heard it closed and then someone told me they changed their mind. I’ll check next time I’m there

CamdenWarehouse: Is the backlog on the HoF ballot finally cleared?

Dan Szymborski: We’re getting there. It’s not really *solved* in the sense that part of it was solved by deserving guys getting zero consideration and the rest by deserving players falling short after ten years

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, the backlog will be gone, but it’s a bit like solving your check engine light by resetting the codes every morning when you start the car

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Do you see the Brewers making any additional (significant) moves before ST and/or the regular season?

Dan Szymborski: No

Jon Heyman’s bitmoji: I saw that you mentioned Yankees prospects was involved in several lawsuits with his high school. What was that all about?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Dan Szymborski: When did I say this?

Joe: What if adhering to strict food dogma is actually not good, but bad?

Dan Szymborski: Then you’re bad.

isaacmeep: Magic damage kills ghosts, so that means that A. somebody out there has access to magic and B. they decided to use said magic on your grandmother.

heywhahappened : Isn’t chilli essentially just an overcooked soup?

Dan Szymborski: No

Ben Brode: Should Blizzard change or remove the “classic” designation to cards? Would removing Genn/Baku make the game less stale? I feel like HS hasn’t been fun since Un’Goro.

Dan Szymborski: The problem is they’re hard to change in incremental fashion

Dan Szymborski: Well, you could make the “better hero power” 3 mana

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t know how you make the “your hero power is 1” any worse

tz: Which player has shown up the most time so far as a comp in the ZIPs projections?  My money is on Rabbit Warstler.

Dan Szymborski: Chad Moeller

Dan Szymborski: Seriously, he’s like the average of all the below-average fringe catchers in their 30s.

Bob: You mentioned in the Det ZIps post that their position player prospect group was thin, but you didn’

Dan Szymborski: DID TOO

CamdenWarehouse: not Steak-Umm, but Steak-’em, as in how Tony the Tiger takes care of the Count Chocula threat

isaacmeep: The Steak-umm audible is when the QB forgets the play at the line.  Also known as the Mark Sanchez Special.

CamdenWarehouse: oh god that’s awful

waks: how often do you back through old ZiPS to see if there’s any kind of pattern on what kind of player is overrated or underrated or etc?
(recognizing that a lot of it is circumstance)

Dan Szymborski: I always check for correlated errors. Sadly, the easy fruit is long harvested

BK: How often do you lurk on TalkingChop?

BK: We love when you make your special guest appearances

Dan Szymborski: I’m summonable

zurzles: Hi Dan. Do you ever visit classic game stores or do you buy online? Any in Maryland? Trying to judge if Play Raven in Eldersburg is worth the drive

Dan Szymborski: Mostly online. I probably use emulators 99% of the time I Play an old game.

Dan Szymborski: I like the convenience more than the genuineness

Gub Gub: Since planets in Star Wars are only allowed to have one distinguishing characteristic,  the planet Dantooino is well-known for what?

Dan Szymborski: the molybdenum planet

BK: Andruw Jones is a Hall of Famer, change my mind

Dan Szymborski: I will not

Matt: ZiPS, moreso than other publicly-available projection systems, seems to buy into later-career adjustments and believe they’re repeatable. Curious what it is about ZiPS that differentiates itself? Just a heavier reliance on recent production?

Dan Szymborski: Tha’ts tricky, because I don’t know all the secret sauce in Steamer or PECOTA

Jon Heyman’s bitmoji: Sorry, I meant you said this about one Yankees prospect under the Top 38 rankings. Didnt know what that was all about…

Dan Szymborski: Are you sure this is me?

tb.25: Best part of DSzym’s superbowl the chili?

Dan Szymborski: I brought buffalo wings

976: You tweeted Flores with the comment rassen frassen.

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty sure I gave it. Lemme look

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: enjoy a gif in the meantime

Dan Szymborski: And gaze at my dumbass mom.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thought you mean only that i said rassenfrassen and din’t share the projection

Dan Szymborski:

Glass shards in the Face: Have you ever, or known someone who has, made a bong/steamroller out of a liquor bottle?   Did it explode pretty much instantly?

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Watty: LR question:  Best LEGO theme?  City / Star Wars / Superheroes / etc

Dan Szymborski: city stuff as I can build that things

tb.25: Do you enjoy cold weather, as it makes it be chili?

Dan Szymborski: I just like cold weather

The Original Joe Higgins: Puig is going to be a monster in that park.  I have him going 40HR/25SB  Easy right?!?!

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go nuts about the park factors

Ben Brode: Why use emulators when you can rebuy all your tertiary-choice PS1 games in low-def in one cute mini console?

tb.25: re: Count Chocula. If he’s in a suit to protect form the sun, it’ll warm up and melt him…

Dan Szymborski: So he’s melted by warmth?

CamdenWarehouse: what’s in your secret sauce for buffalo wings?

Dan Szymborski: Buy the wings from a restaurant

isaacmeep: DJ Stewart is the Orioles’ lone all-star.  Change my mind.  Also may be DJ Stewart’s number 1 fan, but ignore that for the moment.

Dan Szymborski: Givens

LFC Mike: Are the other Fan Graph chatters envious of the Island of Misfit Toys  followers you have here? They should be.

Lou: I’m certain Bill Belichick has a very large sophisticated analytics dept and he plays dumb on purpose.  What if Billy Beane told Michael Lewis to get lost back in the early 2000s?  How many WS would the A’s have won if Beane kept all his secrets?

Dan Szymborski: It would have happened sooner or later

Dan Szymborski: though I appreciate Moneyball sparking public interest in sabermetrics

Dan Szymborski: Since it made all of us employable

BK: If (somehow) the Braves sign Harper, are they the favorites in the NL? Or is it still the Dodgers?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, no

Dan Szymborski: Check that

Dan Szymborski: Yes, yes

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers will have an easier division

Mandy Is Still 91% Fresh: It’s July 30. Cleveland has struggled mightily, the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers have modestly exceeded expectations, and no AL Central team is above .500 or more than 3 GB.  Should the Sox, Royals, and Tigers look to add a few rent-a-players to fill holes as long as they give up no real prospects (e.g., take on remaining salary as the main compensation for acquiring them)?

Dan Szymborski: If they don’t give up prospects and their shot is close enough to be realistic, why not?

Dan Szymborski: Making money is easier than making prospects

stever20: What are the odds in your opinion that MLB and the players agree to go back to the 15 day DL instead of the current 10 day DL?

Dan Szymborski: I think they have bigger fish to fry and nothing happens there

Alex: Could you see the Yankees being the Mystery team in on Harper? There’s no way Cashman actually believes a 36 year old broken down Brett Gardner can start this season.

Dan Szymborski: I can see the Yankees being a mystery team.

Mick: Any under the radar middle infielders you see having a breakout year this year?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me spoil all my March articles!

Alex: What could be the Yankees rationalization for playing a broken down 36 year old LF everyday vs. signing an all-world 26 year old left handed superstar bat for nothing but cash?

Dan Szymborski: The’re some rot in the root cellar.

Dan Szymborski: Only so much cash to go around!

robertobeers: Does the ZiPS machine give you an idea of the odds Bumgarner returns to his 92 mph form circa 2014-2015?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah hold on a sec

Dan Szymborski: OK, his two best ERA+ were 146 and 131

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, ZiPS runs a little bit faster on my main rig than my statnerd rig now

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’ll convert it into a threadripper, but I’d have to lose my little prodigy case

Dan Szymborski: (it’s in a red bitfenix prodigy case)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS gives Bumgarner a 6% chance of hitting an ERA+ of 146, 14% 131

Lenn Sakata: Should Indians fans be disappointed in this offseason?  I get the budget constraints, but I also get the fact that their window is open right now )and might even be closing), shouldn’t they be utilizing a starting outfield that does not include Jordan Luplow

Dan Szymborski: I would be

Dan Szymborski: I still don’t understand why they didn’t QO Brantley

DaveW: What are your thoughts on Senzel moving to CF?  Are they screwing him up long term or giving him a chance?

Dan Szymborski: Any way they can get him in the lineup, they should

LFC Mike: This week’s Battle Royale: TV Commercial Characters. NON FOOD DIVISION (otherwise the Jolly Green Giant wins everyweek..right?). I take old school Brawny Guy. First out of the ring is the Pillsbury Dough Boy…he just giggles anyway.

Dan Szymborski: old school brawny guy would beat the crap out of metrosexual brawny guy

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know how large king vitaman’s army is

Dan Szymborski: oh wait, kinda getting back to cereal

Dan Szymborski: but he’s the JOLLY green giant, not the angry green giant

Dan Szymborski: That would be a good name for my generic store brand frozen vegetable company: Angry Golem

Dbo: Can I make chili with ground beef or does it have to be brisket?

Dan Szymborski: I’d accept ground beef

Gub Gub: Frankenberry is a sentient golem.  How do you stop that?

Dan Szymborski: Frankenberry is the doctor.

Jamie : That Superman cereal is BS. Not a real cereal mascot. Tony the Tiger all the way

CamdenWarehouse: *borderline employable

Dan Szymborski: I’ve made a good living for a decade!

Dan Szymborski: Not like Buy a House in San Francisco living, but I have no complaints

Bob: You didn’t post a ZiPS for Issac Paredes who is one of their best prospects and finished the year in AA!

Dan Szymborski: I did do one afterwards, let me grab it

Amazon Jungle Fan: Who is the best pinch hitter in baseball this last decade?

Dan Szymborski: It’s barely a specific role in baseball anymore. It’s just the “other guys” now

Dan Szymborski: It’s probably someone like Seth Smith or Matt Stairs

Cove Dweller: How is the Pillsbury Doughboy part of the Non-food division?!

Dan Szymborski: non-cereal division

tz: Fun Joe Randa Fact:  he was once traded for LeBron.

Dan Szymborski: Different one

LFC Mike: Please tell us you still have your shirt on.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: I’m wearing my oregon trail t-shirt

Dan Szymborski: I actually have two because there’s a hoel in the armpit and I like to wear that shirt outside the house

Davis: Where does Bo Bichette play in 2019? AAA?

Dan Szymborski: AAA

CamdenWarehouse: Do you have a favorite current minor league team name?

Dan Szymborski: Rumble Ponies makes me laugh

Josh R: Have you ever noticed that if your last name is Murphy and you play baseball, your first name must start with a D?

Dan Szymborski: That’s why the Rockies won’t play Tom Murphy; they don’t want to go to prison

Adam Levine: C’mon everybody…chat shirtless in solidarity for our shiite show last night!

BK: Oregon Trail was the SHIT in elementary school

Ben Brode: Not applicable if it doesn’t have anything to do with dying of dysentery

Dan Szymborski: it’s a black shirt with this

Dan Szymborski:

Rob: Angels question.

Rob: I’ll hang up and listen for your answer.

Dan Szymborski: Angels don’t exist, except maybe the Dr. Who weeping angels.

isaacmeep: only in Dan Syzmborski chats do we get shirt armpit hole updates

Steak-Umm: Make chili with us!

Dan Szymborski: Would be kinda weird texture

The Old Buccaneer: Do you also have a Number Munchers shirt?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, i was really good at math as a kid and never played an educational math game

isaacmeep: Can’t die of dysentery if you drown in a river

Dan Szymborski: DON’T FORD EVERY RIVER YOU MADMAN

Dan Szymborski: With that universally applicable advice, it’s time for me to bid you all adieu for another week.

Dan Szymborski: At least in chat form.

Dan Szymborski: Good bye and go away!

The Old Buccaneer: Have you ever had a peanut butter and pickle sandwich? They taste exactly like they smell, delicious.

Dan Szymborski: Gross