Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/29/16

by
February 29, 2016
11:59
Dan Szymborski: We get signal.
11:59
Dan Szymborski: Main screen turn on.
11:59
Rick: ZiPS projection for wRC+ is on the individual player pages, but not on the mass spreadsheet or compiled projections page. Is there any way to fix this?
12:00
Dan Szymborski: No, because I don’t calculate wRC+
12:00
Outta my way, Gyorkass: I saw on the Brewers ZiPS page that O. Arcia is projected to be a +2 WAR player. Is that all in the defense? He’s hit well, but nothing above AA ball.
12:00
Dan Szymborski: A 20-year-old hitting like that in AA isn’t something to poo-poo.

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Since we’re back on a normal schedule, ther ewill be a LIghtning Round, so once again starring the off-topic Qs
12:02
Big Joe Montferrant: On the Ichiro times to 1st. I read up on speedy players from all time, and Bo Jackson was clocked at 3.66 from the right side of the plate. But Mickey Mantle has been clocked multiple times at 3.1 seconds, even if we add .2 or .3 seconds of human error, that is still 3.3 or 3.4 seconds to first. Do you believe he was THAT fast? (he has the highest SB% ever by a HOFer, is 7-8 on bunts in WS play, and mythically, many many people are quoted as saying he is “the fastest man they had ever seen”)
12:02
Outta my way, Gyorkass: If you had to guess, what would you predict will be the most meaningful change to happen after the next round of CBA negotiations?
12:03
Dan Szymborski: Why is it picking two at once?
12:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly possible that Mantle ran that fast. Let’s say a guy runs a 3.3. I don’t have historical 30 yard attempts, but it’s not crazy when you look at 40s.
12:05
Dan Szymborski: Now, worse starting position, but Mantle wasn’t quite running all 90 feet hitting from the right side either.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Now when was Bo clocked from the right side of the plate? He didn’t hit lefthanded.
12:06
Dan Szymborski: Question two: I think nothing will be meaningful.
12:07
Dan Szymborski: There’s been a lot of labor peace and both parties don’t have serious enough reasons to have a fight
12:07
Mike: Ian Desmond has to fire his agent, right? Bad season or not he has to get a better offer than 1/8 from somebody?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say how much is *his* fault. Agents represent players, they don’t simply decide what to do and cut the player out of decisions.
12:08
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Are you ready for real baseball games to just freaking start already?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
12:08
Bork: Did the Rangers look at the Red Sox and just decide “HA LOOK AT THEIR MISTAKE, IT’LL NEVER HAPPEN TO US, RIGHT GUYS, RIGHT??”
12:08
Dan Szymborski: I don’t understand the context of this question.
12:08
Ryan: Is it easier to project hitting or pitching. I.e., are your hitting or pitching projections more accurate?
12:08
Dan Szymborski: Well hitters, simply because hitters are more consistent.
12:09
Andrew: Do you have different levels of confidence in what ZiPS is forecasting, based on the sample size of the data? i.e. would you be more confident in the forecast for a second year player with 300 career plate appearances vs. a veteran with 3000? Or does ZiPS weigh the data appropriately, giving you roughly the same confidence level regardless?
12:09
Dan Szymborski: There are in fact different levels of confidence. AMount of history is pretty important.
12:11
/sp/: how often do you personally disagree with the projections? Right now Boston is seen with a 50% chance to win the division.
12:11
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have them at 50%.
12:12
Trevor Story: Am I the opening day SS in Colorado?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe so. No reason for Rockies to start the clock ticking. Even if Story wins the competition, it still make sense for Adames to start opening day.
12:13
Riley: I took Andrew Benintendi in the minor league portion of my fantasy baseball draft, ahead of Dansby and Rodgers… Smart?
12:13
Dan Szymborski: Ahead of Dansby is quite aggressive.
12:14
Dan Szymborski: As is Rodgers, simply because Coors is a thing.
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Not to mention that you get nothing from him being a centerfielder in typical formats.
12:16
Big Joe Montferrant: Eovaldi or Pineda in 2016, and why??
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Pineda if I need upside, Eovaldi certainty.
12:16
Archie: It seems like ZiPS likes Dilson Herrera more than most. Do you think more playing time is in store?
12:16
Dan Szymborski: Should be, but Mets aren’t in a hurry.
12:17
Vic: Will ZIPS be a part of the auction calculator?
12:17
Dan Szymborski: No idea.
12:17
Hans Von Spankovsky: Has there ever been someone like Desmond, turning down 108mill switching positions contracting the yips and getting paid peanuts?
12:18
Dan Szymborski: Not sure there’s a direct comparison. Juan Gonzalez didn’t change positions really. Jody Reed’s turn down was less relative.
12:18
Hans Von Spankovsky: Does Tyler O’Neill have legit power or more a product of a hitter friendly league?
12:19
Dan Szymborski: He obviously has some or he wouldn’t hit that many, but the Cal League is crazy.
12:20
Dan Szymborski: Just as a note, apparently needed to be explicit more than usual, I shy away from the very specific league fantasy questions because more often than not, very specific questions like “Pick 5 of these 9 players for keepers,” tend to be very uninteresting for the wider audience.
12:21
Dan Szymborski: Fantasy questions I answer tend to be those that have applicability to at least a significant portion of the readers.
12:22
Eminor3rd: Is there any reason to have the QO at all? If so, is there any reason it needs to PUNISH anyone, as opposed to simply granting advantages to teams losing players?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: It’s been a long-established premise, from the very start of FA, that a team losing a significant FA gets some form of compensation. To suddenly change that to nothing after 40 years would be a significant change from the status quo that certain clubs will fight against.
12:24
Dan Szymborski: QO honestly, isn’t notably worse than any of the other compensation schemes we’ve had.
12:24
Hans Von Spankovsky: Will stadiums banning dip will that negatively impact players that do, does it give home teams in those park a small edge or will they put it in-between their toes like NCAA kids?
12:24
Dan Szymborski: Doubt it makes a difference long-term.
12:24
Ian Desmond: wait so the best offer I got was as an OF for 8Mil? Can I fire my agent before I sign the deal to cut him out? How could that have been the best offer?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s a very weird situation.
12:25
Bork: My biggest question is how much higher the luxury tax threshold will go up in the next CBA.
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Probably one of the most significant questions.
12:25
mtsw: Better bounceback season candidate: Matt Kemp or JJ Hardy?
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Hardy – he can actually field his position and there’s at least evidence that injury hampered him.
12:25
Bork: The context is the Rangers are putting a SS in LF. Red Sox put Hanley in LF and look at how it worked out…
12:25
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but the Rangers aren’t risking as much.
12:26
Dan Szymborski: And let’s be honest, Hanley wasn’t able to sorta fake SS because of amazing instincts or anything.
12:26
Zorak: Is it just small sample size, or is (insert previously unheralded player on a first week hot streak) For Real?
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:26
Jason: Do you think working through a complete tear down and rebuild is the best measure of how talented a GM is? Or do the best GMs never allow their clubs get into a position where that is necessary??
12:26
Dan Szymborski: It depends on the franchise. But the tear down rebuild is one of the best opportunities for a GM to display their creativity.
12:26
Mike: Is Freese going to have to wait for an injury in spring training to get a job? You’d think with his history that some team would want him, but I can’t think of any obvious fits right now
12:26
Dan Szymborski: Seems likely. Freese isn’t very good.
12:27
j6takish: Agents work for the player, I’m sure desmond and fowler got better offers earlier in the offseason then what they ultimately signed for. If the agent misread the market/demand that’s bad but if the player was holding out for more money that’s on the player
12:27
some guy: Is there a way to enter my fantasy team into a ZiPS calculator and have it figure out my team WAR? I don’t want to simply add up my team’s WAR as that may result in a karate chop to the head….
12:27
Dan Szymborski: There is no WAR adding in this dojo.
12:28
Guest: Any idea who came up with the term the yips?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: Believe it was originally applied to golf, so probably a golfer.
12:28
Big Joe Montferrant: Let say Jamie Moyer would have stuck around until 300 wins… Would he be a HOFer?
12:28
Dan Szymborski: He would not be inducted I think.
12:33
mtsw: Would a baseball stadium that had a wall or walls in the OF that were effectively so tall you couldn’t homer over it be legal?
12:33
Dan Szymborski: Oh, how nice for my internet to grace me with its presence again.
12:34
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe the dimension rules address a maximum fence height, but I imagine the “best interest of baseball” clause would be applied by a commish in this situation.
12:35
Rhino: Polloch has average 133 wRC last two seasons but you regress him to 116 and give him only 525 PAs. Help us understand what you are seeing.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: Well *I’m* not seeing anything.
12:35
Dan Szymborski: And second, there are a number of other issues.
12:36
Dan Szymborski: For one, it’s not two seasons, it’s one in a half seasons. And two, playing time is subject to risk skewness (and last season was his first with 600 PA)
12:36
Dan Szymborski: It’s projecting 2016, not 2015 and half of 2014, which is far easier to project at this juncture.
12:37
Dan Szymborski: Nor is it far enough from the other projections for Pollock that I’m concerned something went wrong
12:38
Dan Szymborski: And in this case, Steamer projects less offense and Davenport the same.
12:38
Eric: Do you believe Molitor and the Twins FO when they say that Miguel Sano will not play 3B at all this season?
12:38
Dan Szymborski: Not entirely.
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Things happen during the course of the season and they both want Sano to focus right now on playing the outfield and not make Plouffe feel he’s going to get sandbagged
12:39
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Say the Pirates implode this year and make the decision to flip McCutchen for as much value as they can. First call Huntington makes – Dave Stewart or the field?
12:39
Dan Szymborski: Dave Stewart gave away most of the excitement already!
12:39
NutButters: Based on the rate of excessive projection for the Red Sox from steamers and FanGraps, I have them coming in at 80 wins this year, sound a bit more like reality than the projections of the last 5 years?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Not sur ewhat the question is.
12:40
EC: Why didn’t someone else sign Desmond to play SS? He wasn’t better than the other guys, at $8 million?
12:40
Dan Szymborski: Well, it’ snot $8 million. It’s $8 million plus a draft pick.
12:40
Dan Szymborski: The draft pick, unless it’s protected, is a bigger deal than the salary.
12:41
EC: Keith Law played down Danny Espinosa’s defensive prowess the other day in a chat, but to me and other Nats fans he’s always looked fantastic in the field. Is he that awful at SS?
12:41
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s enough data, both from his limited SS and his implied performance stemming from second, that he’s likely not an awful SS
12:41
James : Better long term asset, Joc Pederson or Taijuan Walker?
12:42
Dan Szymborski: Walker has more upside but Pederson has a higher floor
12:43
Bruce Bochy: Starting left fielder for Giants on August 1st? Williamson or Parker have anything?
12:44
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either are good enough to really push Pagan. Giants are in a pennant race and I don’t think they make a change unless they demonstrate a case for being clearly better.
12:44
Dan Szymborski: Now, say Pence gets injured and they’re short an OF? THen maybe, because demonstrating more use than Blanco is an easier hurdle (but Blanco’s playing time is tough to kill too)
12:44
Read the F-ing Jerry Manuel: If Duda, d’Arnaud, and Plawecki are all healthy and playing good ball, do you see the Mets moving one of them this summer or winter (and potentially moving TDA to 1B)? Seems like in 2017, they’d all project as major league starters.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility. Too speculative given the range of scenarios.
12:45
Bruce Bochy: Angel Pagan to the Orioles a possibility? One year left on contract.
12:45
Dan Szymborski: As an Oriole fan, I would hope not.
12:45
Bruce Bochy: Matt Cains elbow fell off again. Do you
12:46
Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s a cyst unless I missed more news. I don’t expect much from Cain either way. OK, moving away from the run of Giants Qs.
12:47
the dude: who’s going to be the best cubs hitter in 2016?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Rizzo. Best hitter that is, no positional adjustment
12:47
EC: Who would you rather have on Hanley’s contract: Hanley or Ian Desmond?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Probably Desmond.
12:47
Hardooo: Who has a better 2016: Tanaka or Wainwright?
12:47
Dan Szymborski: Wainwright
12:47
Dan Szymborski: But it’s not that certain
12:48
m: Is there anywhere to get the raw statcast data?
12:48
Dan Szymborski: Have an arrangement iwth MLB
12:48
morineko: Is the talk about small pitchers not being able to sustain a career as a starting pitcher based on any facts, or just a bias against small pitchers? If a player’s stuff doesn’t play in the rotation, that’s one thing, but when given two players with equal talents on paper a lot of commenters will discount the smaller player or not say the problems with the bigger player are the same problem.
12:48
Dan Szymborski: This is one of those areas of study in which there are mixed results. I tend to be of the mind that it’s a real factor, but a fairly small one that is typically going to be pushed back by other factors.
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I mean how often are you goign to have two pitchers you like exactly as much but one’s 6’5 and one’s 5’11? Other factors are simply bigger
12:49
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Today’s “Top Prospects of 2006” article yielded what I’ll call three legit stars (Cain, Verlander, Upton), three “solid regulars” (Drew, Liriano, Billingsley), two “busts” that achieved temporary, fleeting success (Hermida, Young), and two complete nothings in Milledge and Wood. Do you think in ten years we’ll see a markedly better hit rate when we take a look at the top prospects of 2016 with the general trend towards embracing analytics, or is baseball just going to be too damn random to predict?
12:49
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that’s a bad result. I think we’ll get better, but bigger gains are always first, later games more marginal
12:49
EC: So what replaces the QO? And why don’t all borderline guys accept it next year?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: I think we get some QO tinkering.
12:50
Hans Von Spankovsky: Is the Cal so hitter friendly to build confidence in younger players?
12:50
Dan Szymborski: No, the Cal is hitter friendly because it has a lot of small ballparks at high elevations.
12:50
Bork: Dave Cameron posted the perfect fix for the QO system IMO. Any 1 year deal and the team doesn’t give up the draft pick.
12:51
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s reasonable, but MLB and reasonable aren’t always perfectly correlated.
12:52
Dan Szymborski: Hold on a sec, phone I can’t avoid
12:55
Dan Szymborski: Sorry
12:55
Dan Szymborski: OK
12:55
Dan Szymborski: If I ignore a phone from my mom she’ll start texting me and emailing me until I want to strangle her
12:55
Alex: How early are you drafting Anderson Espinoza in a dynasty prospect draft if you have little room for management on your major league roster. For example, Blake Snell and Jose Berrios are also available, but picking those guys means I might be forced to decide keepers between them or guys like Odorizzi, Myers, Lucroy, or other good middle-tier players at the end of the year. Should I just keep drafting bpa or plan for a prospect wave around 2018? In contending now if it makes a difference
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the contours of the draft. But you always ought to treat players that young and at so low a level as lottery tickets to some degree. Maybe good lottery tickets.
12:56
some guy: If Commissioner Manfred were to implement one of your suggestions to the game of baseball (any area you choose), what would you change and why?
12:56
Dan Szymborski: 10-man pitching staffs.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: Get the pitch clocks moving.
12:56
Dan Szymborski: and Robot Umps.
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Because they make the game better.
12:57
Joe: Better for the Os to go after Jay Bruce or Austin Jackson? Are either of them significantly better than what the Os currently have in the OF?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Austin jackson. He just costs money.
12:57
Ryan: If White Sox sign Austin Jackson and play him in CF with Eaton in RF, how many run improvement defensively would you anticipate? 10? 15?
12:57
Dan Szymborski: Given their delusion that Garcia is a starter, it should be quite an upgrade.
12:58
Gary: Do you think the Os should have said screw it and traded Machado? They just spent a fortune to field a mediocre team, and they could have completely re-stocked the farm.
12:58
Dan Szymborski: It’s tough for me as an O’s fan, but a part of me says the O’s really would have been better off rebuilding this offseason, for the simple truth that it would take a $160 million payroll to have a roster as good as last year’s 81-81 team did.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: The failures of the farm system in recent years has sent them on an awkward path.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: Yes, they produced Machado and I like Gausman, but they’re not getting much in the way of depth from the farm.
12:59
Dan Szymborski: And buying depth is a very expensive game.
1:00
Dan Szymborski: It would be unreasonable to expect the Orioles to come up with a Bryant or a Schwarber to go along with Machado every year.
1:01
Dan Szymborski: But the organization is doing a poor job finding Pierce Johnsons or C.J. Edwardses.
1:02
Dan Szymborski: I mean Christian Walker is *still* somewhere in the middle of their top 10 prospects and he’s a 25 year-old that kinda stunk in AAA>
1:02
dbet: I got Tulo, Braun, Brantley and Tanaka all at reasonable prices in a 5×5 league. Is my team going to blow up in my face cartoon style?
1:03
Dan Szymborski: You’ve certainly got a high risk/high reward strategy
1:03
Jimmy: Do you think Stroman bounces back this year? The K’s were done when he returned to the mound late in the year.
1:03
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK. He was getting back up to speed very quickly.
1:04
Uther: Would Jay Bruce be an upgrade on a Daniel Nava / Craig Gentry platoon for the Angels?
1:04
Dan Szymborski: A year ago that would’ve been brighter.
1:04
EC: Why would the Pirates jerk around Cole on his contract renewal? Seems penny wise, pound foolish.
1:04
Dan Szymborski: Hey, I used the same phrase!
1:04
Alex: Molitor saying Buxton could begin year in AAA. Smokescreen, some chance, or revealing his hand? What’s Dan’s hot take?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: It wouldn’t hurt to see if he can kill AAA hitters for a month.
1:05
dbet: As a fellow Daniel, I have heard “Damnnnnn Daniel” a lot. Have you dealt with this yourself recently?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: Yes.
1:05
Mark: Let’s say Jamie Moyer stuck around to age 300, would he be a HoFer?
1:05
Dan Szymborski: If he could pitch for four times the average *lifespan* as a person, that’s a HOFer easy
1:05
Zonk: Austin Jackson was rumored to turn down a 1 yr/ $6 mil offer from Angels. Several teams could use him, yet nobody wants to open the wallet. What is your A-Jax prediction? Strange to have a non-QO guy lasting this long, isn’t it?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Teams just aren’t valuing decent veterans how they used to
1:06
Kevin: Chris Mitchell posted an article today reflecting on 2006’s top prospects, in retrospect. How often do you look back at ZiPS forecasts and evaluate how accurate they were? Do you find certain types of players (e.g. contact-first hitters, or pitchers who induce lots of popups as totally random examples) ‘break the forecast’ more often than not?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: Bias is an easier thing to get right than accuracy.
1:06
senpaisanto:

1:06
Leo the Lion: How old is the data that you use to build the prediction for ZiPS? Is it based off of all players who have ever played? Just the last X years? Do you weight more recent data more than older data?
1:06
Dan Szymborski: I weight recent data more highly.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of data in there – MLBers going back to the dead-ball era and minor leaguers into the early 1970s.
1:07
Dan Szymborski: But if you notice the top comps, there are a lot more recent guys than old-timers.
1:08
dbet: Do you remember any crazy projections that ZIPs made that were wildly different than other systems?
1:08
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS absolutely trashed Hamilton going into his first year with the Angels, far worse than everyone. And was still high!
1:10
Ampersand: As a ZiPS noob: Do projected PA include the minors?
1:10
Dan Szymborski: Yes. ZiPS is agnostic about who a team likes. Intentionally so.
1:11
j6takish: Downward plane is a big deal, short guys are going to have issues keeping the ball down
1:11
Dan Szymborski: But you’re already assuming everything else is equal.
1:11
Dan Szymborski: Err we’re
1:11
RMR: ZiPS player comps are for that player’s performance in the same age season, correct? In other words, Anthony Desclafani and Homer Bailey aren’t getting the good version of Mike Scott.
1:12
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but there’s some give. ZiPS prefers a 24 year-old be compared to 24-year-olds ideally, but other stuff is a bigger factor than whether the guy’s 25 or 23
1:12
el gasino: settle an argument with my friend: ped’s are responsible for the offensive boom of the late ’90’s/2000’s, correct?
1:14
Dan Szymborski: It would be very odd for everyone to discover a drug between the end of 1992 and the start of 1994 that had been around for 35 years, had been used by at *least* one marginal player in the early 1970s. And then no drug use increase after 1994.
1:14
Dan Szymborski: Becasue that’s essentially the “PEDs caused offense” storyline.
1:15
JB: Any particular reason why Sonny Gray is so low on most radars?
1:15
Dan Szymborski: He’s probably walking or driving and not utilizing a plane or a glider or some form of dirigible.
1:16
el gasino: when will we see robot umps?
1:16
Dan Szymborski: 2040.
1:16
Dan Szymborski: We’re behind. Super Nintendo had us with robot *players* in 2020 and it’s already 2016, so there would need to be some good prototypes by now
1:16
Bork: Robot umps would open up so much for the MLB. Like, they could auction off the ability to record your voice yelling strikes/balls/out and the umps would use it for an inning. SO MUCH REVENUE OPPORTUNITY MLB. HIRE ME.
1:17
RMR: Robert Eenhorn, a player who never got more than 34 major league PAs is the #1 comp for Zack Cozart. What am I missing? MLEs?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:17
mtsw: Who do you think is the most unique major leaguer ever?
1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m going to have to penalize you for most unique.
1:18
lampz: how would robot umps toss players/managers?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Lasers? A giant net? Knockout gas? Dart gun? Lots of ways
1:19
Bork: Too lazy to google. Has there ever been a sidearm throwing knuckleballer? If so, how would it even work?
1:19
Dan Szymborski: Cicotte.
1:19
Dan Szymborski: There are different spins.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Cicotte’s knuckler had this weird forkbally action in there, reportedly
1:20
Matt: If we ever do get robot umps, do you envision them being more Wall-E or Terminator?
1:20
Dan Szymborski: Terminator. Friendly robots are lower ratings.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: OK, Lightning Round Time.
1:20
Dan Szymborski: The rules of the Lightning ROund are simple.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: I must answer every question — with the usual exceptions for extremely personal ones or work-related issues — so long as it’s off-topic.
1:21
Dan Szymborski: This continues until I catch up or get bored (I don’t want a situation where I never ever catch up because you guys are obnoxious and I have to live here forever)
1:21
Dan Szymborski: GO
1:21
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Do/did you play Final Fantasy? If so, what’s your most and least favorite installment?
1:21
Dan Szymborski: Yes. 6, 8
1:22
Dan Szymborski: WTF I HATE DRAWING MAGIC
1:22
Ampersand: For lightning round: I know you’re into video games, but how do you feel about board games? Do you play/have any favorites?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Catan is a classic, but I don’t get to play many board games because I don’t have the current accessible friend pool for board game playign
1:22
Big Joe Montferrant: What is the better feeling, letting out a big fart or a big burp?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Burp.
1:22
Guest: I gave my cat a couple of treats the other day. My girlfriend, not knowing I had already given him a couple of treats, also gave him a couple of treats. 2 hours later, my cat threw up. Everywhere. I went out to the garage to get cleaning products and a broom. While in the garage, my dog proceeded to eat all of the vomit. Therefore, no cleanup was needed.
1:22
Dan Szymborski: You should probably still clean up a bit more.
1:22
Big Joe Montferrant: Do you work from home?
1:22
Dan Szymborski: Usually.
1:23
Eminor3rd: Is literally everything, since the Big Bang, pre-determined at the molecular level by the laws of physics — or does true randomness exist at the quantum level?
1:23
Dan Szymborski: Isn’t that one of the big arguments around quantum mechanics?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: I believe the general consensus is there’s a non-deterministic basis and I’m not of a knowledge level to make good arguments.
1:24
mtsw: How many states does Trump win tomorrow?
1:24
Dan Szymborski: All but Texas. FML.
1:24
Nelson: Of the top Presidential candidates (HRC, Bernie, Cruz, Trump), do any stand a chance at not bouncing the Nats 2017 opening day first pitch. Can you rank their pitches? I will vote according to your list.
1:24
Dan Szymborski: Rubio – closest to high school athletics. But he’s not going to be the president, it’ll be HRC or Trump.
1:24
Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: Any interest in following hockey? The sport has a growing analytical sphere if that means anything.
1:25
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t followed hockey in 20 years. It being good for analysis doesn’t sway me – I do analysis on things I enjoy, I don’t enjoy things because I can do analysis.
1:25
Matt: Sup, Dan?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: This evening. Probably pizza.
1:25
Dinger: John Oliver’s bit on Donald Drumpf last night was spectacular. Check it out?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Aware but haven’t seen it yet.
1:25
Gawker: Can I write a story about digital dandy Dan Szymborski and his thinking Hitler and Stalin had good ideas?
1:25
Dan Szymborski: Dont’ get me started on Gawker.
1:26
Dan Szymborski: If you’re a media outlet dealing with Trump and *you* are the one in the situation with the lesser ethics, you’re Doing It Wrong.
1:26
Natitude Adjuster: Which was the most despicable ruler of the following: (1) Hitler; (2) Stalin; (3) Mao?
1:26
Dan Szymborski: Hitler, Mao, Stalin
1:26
Brandon: CAT UPDATE PLEASE AND THANK YOU
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Pandora’s on my lap glaring at Reagan who is on my windowsill looking at her. Galileo’s asleep on my office couch. Mercutio’s meowing to go into the laundry room because he hears the dryer.
1:27
Ringtone Composer: Which French import do you prefer: Red wine from the Rhone valley or the band Phoenix?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: The band, I’m not really into wine.
1:27
Person Residing in Your Dungeon: I’ve got one of your cats.
1:27
Dan Szymborski: Naw, they’re all here.
1:27
Matt: Have you ever thought about tattooing eyes on your eye lids so you could sleep at work and no one would be any wiser?
1:27
Dan Szymborski: I work at home, I’m free to schedule a nap if I desire.
1:27
mtsw: ever play Battle Brothers? Promising game (early access) and a major patch drops today
1:27
Dan Szymborski: I have not.
1:27
Bork: I feel your pain. My parents give me 2-3 minutes to respond to a text or else I’m apparently dead. Also I’m 28.
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Mom’s not so bad. I’m an attentive son – I’m one of her only two living relatives within 3000 miles.
1:28
Dan: Updated 5 worst BBTF posters in your opinion? Or just 5 worst OTP posters?
1:28
Dan Szymborski: Hmm
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Jolly St. Nick, Rickey, Bitter Mouse, formerlydp, tshipman
1:29
Dan Szymborski: Which I doubt is a surprise to any of them, else I wouldn’t answer this.
1:30
j6takish: Most overrated animal?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Either Koalas or Groundhogs. Koalas dont’ seem to be able to do much on their own and groundhogs have no weather insight.
1:31
Mike: What do you think is more likely in the announced Shane McMahon/Undertaker HIAC match for Wrestlemania? John Cena making a miraculous recovery and subbing in for Shane? Buckets of blood being spilled? Someone getting injured on a fall that part timers shouldn’t have tried? Or me falling asleep on the couch because the idea is stupid?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Cena recovery.
1:31
Terrible Ted: Would you rather have Trump for the next four or Bush Jr for the next 4?
1:31
Dan Szymborski: W.
1:31
@RationalMLBfan: Matt Groening lets you rename his show “Szympsons” for an episode and create a central character based on yourself. Please describe this character.
1:31
Dan Szymborski: Comic Book Guy’s long lost twin Baseball Stat Guy
1:31
Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m not Comic Book Guy Fat, but I’d be willing to bend for the good of the episode.
1:31
CamdenWarehouse: Was South Carolina good, bad, or we’re all screwed anyway?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Or, we’re screwed.
1:32
dbet: If you didn’t do baseball analysis would you be an actuary?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: No
1:32
JDBlue: Gun to your head or knife to your throat? Which homicidal threat do you prefer as a preface to a question?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: A knife to my throat would probably get me to answer more readily than a gun to my head.
1:32
Heartstone: Standard or wild format? thoughts?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Both should be interesting.
1:32
CamdenWarehouse: I give you permission to punch me if I ever use the phrase “Too lazy to google”
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Noted.
1:32
Dan: Favorite subject in high school?
1:32
Dan Szymborski: Wind ensemble.
1:32
LudeBurger: I love you, Dan
1:32
Dan Szymborski: I do not have the requisite information to inform you of whether or not I can return that love, however.
1:33
dbet: God, Super Baseball 2020 was so sick.
1:33
Bork: How much are you looking forward to the new 30 second rule for manager/mound meetings?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Depends if there is violence if it’s broken
1:33
Blake: What are your top 3 movies of all time?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: This will ALWAYS vary depending on the mood I am.
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Today I’m in a Princess Bride/Godfather/Truman Show type mood.
1:33
Jeff: Do you play overwatch? Thoughts?
1:33
Dan Szymborski: Yes, I am in the closed beta. I am enjoying it greatly.
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Even if there is significant role overlap, each class feels different to me and has a different style.l
1:34
Alex: Question.
1:34
LudeBurger: Tindr or Grindr?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: Neither.
1:34
Jeff: Any plans on adding rankings of some sort for the esports on ESPN?
1:34
Dan Szymborski: I know I’m definitely looking at these possibilities.
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Long-term, I want us to have rich statistical content.
1:35
Halp: Any baseball traditions i should start with my kid? I.E going every year opening day?
1:35
Dan Szymborski: Giving him a beer when nobody’s looking.
1:35
Matt: Which one of these three items would you be most OK with it disappearing from the planet: Hazelnut coffee, orange juice, flip flops.
1:35
Dan Szymborski: I could honestly do without all of those
1:36
Dan Szymborski: I drink like 5 cups of coffee a year, I don’t wear flip flops, and I can’t drink a lot of OJ because of the acid content.
1:36
Ampersand: What are your favorite outdoor activities?
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Drinking beer outside, eating outside, golf, swimming, kayaking are my favorites, in that order.
1:36
dbet: What is your favorite class in hearthstone?
1:36
Dan Szymborski: Paladin, though not at the moment as I don’t like the current strongest decks.
1:36
Eric: How much would I need to spend to have a competitive deck in Hearthstone?
1:37
Dan Szymborski: You can make a competitive deck nearly for free, though you’ll have fewer archetypes to choose from.
1:38
Dan Szymborski: Aggro Paladin and Zoo in particular can be made very cheaply with some choices.
1:38
ben: better strategy, longest road or largest army?
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the other players
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Strategies are better if you have less competition for the goal.
1:39
morineko: Did you ever get into Pokemon? If so, favorite game and/or little annoying monster?
1:39
Dan Szymborski: I have not.
1:39
Fred: General thoughts of the GOP race?
1:39
Dan Szymborski: Barf
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Sorry Bork, no work-related Qs
1:40
Dave: Hi Dan, do you know when the park factors will be updated? Thanks.
1:40
Dan Szymborski: I do not.
1:40
dbet: Any plans to come out to California this year?
1:40
Dan Szymborski: At a minimum I hope to be covering BlizzCon.
1:40
CamdenWarehouse: Are you still in MD? I recently learned of the Game Club of Maryland for board game matchmaking.
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Ohio
1:40
Guest: Do you read any comics?
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Not currently
1:40
Jeff: What are your 3 favorite subreddits?
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone, baseball, shittykickstarters
1:40
Matt: Gun to your head – Trump or Sanders?
1:40
Dan Szymborski: Pull the trigger.
1:41
Bork: 8 is a great time waster if you’re sick. You waste so much time drawing magic then you become ridiculously overpowered and cruise through the game. By the time you finish it you feel better
1:41
Halp: If you had the choice to become a professional player which game would you choose CS, League, DOTA, or Hearth Stone?
1:41
Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone. I like the game the most.
1:41
Dan Szymborski: CSGO is out as my reflexes are just too damn slow.
1:41
j6takish: FF8 had a great story but the GF system and limit breaks were so cheap. There was a goddamn spell you could cast on someone to make every turn a limit break
1:41
Dan Szymborski: (I didn’t buy most of the plot twists)
1:41
Mike: Fish Tacos or Fish sandwiches?
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Taco
1:42
Uther: Is there a particular summon statement you like from Hearthstone? Foe Reaper 4000’s “Safety restrictions offline. Harvesting servos engaged.” is cool.
1:42
Dan Szymborski: Tiny Knight of Evil
1:42
Dan Szymborski: “Small in size, huge in evil!”
1:42
Dan: Chances HRC or Trump wears another
1:43
Dan Szymborski: Assuming this is some weird sexual thing, probably fairly low.
1:43
Matt: Does Amash’s insistence that libertarians should support Cruz upset you as much as it does me?
1:43
Dan Szymborski: He’s entitled to his opinions. Libertarians disagree on a lot of things.
1:43
Mike: please get started on gawker
1:43
Fred: Which state do you live in?
1:43
Dan Szymborski: Ohio
1:43
Matt: Don’t you just wish you could know what types of thoughts are running through a dog’s mind?
1:43
Dan Szymborski: No, Dogs would be way more annoying.
1:43
senpaisanto: what should i have for lunch, please dan?
1:43
Dan Szymborski: This is a lot of power which I may use for evil.
1:44
Dan Szymborski: Hot dog with olives, Hershey kisses, fish sauce, and Froot Loops on top.
1:44
Terrible Ted: Most embarrassing opening day start this year is by________?
1:44
Dan Szymborski: everybody on the pHillies?
1:44
Ampersand: Do you have business cards? if so, what do they say?
1:44
Dan Szymborski: I do not
1:44
Fred: At what age did you move out?
1:44
Dan Szymborski: 19
1:44
Terrible Ted: Pick a new last name. Dan…
1:44
Dan Szymborski: Jones. Because then I can change my name to anything and it sounds good.
1:45
Dan Szymborski: Agamemnon Szymborski? Terrible. Agamemnon Jones? Stay outta my way.
1:45
The Decadent Moose: On a scale of 1-10, 1 being “Cistuli” and 10 being “defenestration”, what’s your favorite word?
1:46
Dan Szymborski: My favorite word would be a 10, naturally.
1:46
Fred: Is bigger always better?
1:46
Dan Szymborski: No. Tumors.
1:46
Matt: Why doesn’t The Show come out at the start of ST rather than the start of the season?
1:46
Dan Szymborski: Probably gotta get ready
1:47
ben: which wrestler would be the best baseball player and why?
1:47
Dan Szymborski: Probably prime Randy Savage since he actually was a baseball player
1:47
Guest: Is this the worst group of presidential candidates you’ve ever seen?
1:47
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:47
penny wise: Would you prefer to be remembered for having the best walk-up song in history or the best bat-flipping celebration in history?
1:47
Dan Szymborski: Walkup song.
1:47
Slew: Favorite thing you do for Fangraphs?
1:47
Dan Szymborski: Chats?
1:47
Matt: What would you say if I told you that 5×2=13.62?
1:47
Dan Szymborski: That you’re wrong?
1:47
Bork: Cena returns at Wrestlemania and stabs Shane in the back, starting the long awaited heel turn since Reigns is the new super babyface.
1:48
Slew: Can Trump actually win the general given his abysmal approval among Latinos?
1:48
Dan Szymborski: It’s possible.
1:48
Matt: Have you ever wondered if The Matrix was actually a documentary?
1:48
Dan Szymborski: No.
1:48
tenaciousdeucer: when you talk to your mom does she always repeat the same stories about the same people whom you don’t know and don’t care about?
1:48
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but everyone does that.
1:48
Alex: Can a non-baseball lightning round question be considered off-topic? Wouldn’t it then be considered on-topic?
1:48
Dan Szymborski: Off-topic for the general chat
1:48
Slew: Nate Silver or Sam Wang?
1:48
Dan Szymborski: Nate
1:48
ben: how many fantasy baseball teams do you run?
1:48
Dan Szymborski: 3
1:48
Slew: Favorite type of sandwich?
1:49
Dan Szymborski: If Named Sandwiches, a Reuben
1:49
espn: do you look like tristan cockroft or just in photos?
1:49
Dan Szymborski: Tristan is way taller.
1:49
Dan Szymborski: Sadly, the email informing me I look like a cross between Hermann Göring and Shrek is not far off.
1:49
Golfing: Favorite golf courses?
1:49
Dan Szymborski: Whatever’s near and has a lot of beer availability
1:50
Dan Szymborski: I’m not good enough to be a connoisseur
1:50
c: how would you make arena fairer for classes like warrior, priest, and warlock?
1:50
Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda tough to balance arena.
1:51
Dan Szymborski: Priest needs a solid, solid 2 drop that’s common and clearly good, not just situationally useful
1:52
Dan Szymborski: Say a vanilla 2/4 or a 3/4 with a negative deathrattle
1:52
Dan Szymborski: Warrior’s underrated – the TGT cards were especially bad for it.
1:52
Dan Szymborski: Not sure about warlock. Strengthening warlock always dangerous because of the best hero power in game
1:52
Slew: Three most recent fiction books you’ve read?
1:53
Dan Szymborski: the three most recent ASOIAF because I hadn’t read them chronologically for awhile
1:53
enos brain: you playing garden warfare 2?
1:53
Dan Szymborski: ?
1:53
Matt: Someone told me that the moon was made of cheese. I don’t think that’s true. I mean, aside from the fact that cows can’t breathe in space, you would have the time to make that much cheese? He’s gotta be lying, right?
1:53
Dan Szymborski: The necessary bacteria wouldn’t be able to live in space.
1:53
Guest: Not a fan of the deadspin gawker collective?
1:53
Dan Szymborski: Deadspin’s fine, but the larger gawker umbrella is too tabloidy for me.
1:54
Dan Szymborski: Deadspin’s the best of the Gawker bunch for sure
1:54
Dan Szymborski: Which I would wager is due to the presence of the excellent Tim Marchman.
1:54
Guest: Ff tactics was the best
1:54
Dan Szymborski: I assumed only numbered.
1:54
Fred: Favorite late night snack?
1:54
Dan Szymborski: Cheese
1:55
Matt: Taco is to burrito as open-faced sandwich is to regular sandwich. Agree?
1:55
Dan Szymborski: No
1:55
Calvin: would you vote for Hilary or Trump?
1:55
Dan Szymborski: I say no but may be forced into a decision by events.
1:55
dbet: Have you ever gotten into chess? I started playing recently. It’s much more interesting now then when I was a teen
1:55
Dan Szymborski: Yes, though I haven’t played much in a long time
1:55
Bork: 8 also has the best and most legit fan theory ever. That everything after the 1st disc is a dream.
1:56
Chuncey Wiggins: Besides a can of corn, what would be the best food replacement for a baseball?
1:56
Dan Szymborski: A pear. Unripe ones are like rocks and the shape would make everything kind of funny.
1:56
Chuncey Wiggins: Which player is most likely to own a pet giraffe?
1:56
Dan Szymborski: ]Cespedes
1:56
Eminor3rd: Going to try Starbound again when 1.0 is released?
1:56
Dan Szymborski: I play it from time to time
1:57
dbet: Have you ever seen the show Frisky Dingo? You could be Barnaby Jones/
1:57
Dan Szymborski: I do not. I assume the character isn’t a continuation of Ebsen’s character?
1:57
Matt: Do you ever get bothered by the fact that a W actually looks much more like a “double v” than a “double u”?
1:57
Dan Szymborski: Mine aren’t pointy
1:57
Chuncey Wiggins: Dip/tobacco is to baseball as ______ is to Tennis?
1:57
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, what bad habits do tennis players have?
1:58
senpaisanto: thanx dan!
1:58
Chuncey Wiggins: My mom wants to know how many trampolines are too many trampolines to have in a dining room?
1:59
Dan Szymborski: 1. It’s bad for the china
1:59
Jasper: Any interest in Skylanders Battlecast?
1:59
Dan Szymborski: Would have to play a software only thing. I dont’ want physical stuff
1:59
Chuncey Wiggins: Do you think the next big market inefficiency for baseball is scratch and sniff jerseys?
1:59
Dan Szymborski: No
1:59
Matt: Chuck Schumer is proposing legislation to regulate the legroom on airlines. Don’t you think he should be concerning himself with more important things like websites that are neither fans nor graphs naming themselves fangraphs?
1:59
Dan Szymborski: Yes
1:59
Matt: A preist, a rabbi, and a Buddhist monk walk into a bar, and the bartender says “what is this, some kind of joke?”
2:00
Dan Szymborski: A priest, a rabbi, and a Buddhist monk walk into a bar. The bar has a good lunch special and they are friends and like to spend time together once a month to catch up on events.
2:00
mtsw: Better theory: “Hanley can play LF” or “Trump saying something racist will doom him in Southern GOP primaries?”
2:00
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Hanley LF was necessarily as bad an expectation as it turned out
2:00
Guest: None of these presidential candidates will last for than 1 term
2:01
Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer none of the real contenders to last 0 terms.
2:01
Chuncey Wiggins: Would you rather climb an ocean or swim a mountain?
2:01
Dan Szymborski: climb an ocean.
2:01
cmg8462: How do you split your time on hearthstone between arena & constructed.. I’ve always been a pure arena player but don’t know why.
2:01
Dan Szymborski: Early on after expansions, constructed, and when the meta gets stale, arena
2:01
dancing dan mcgrrrraw : grower or shower?
2:01
Dan Szymborski: Shower?
2:01
dbet: Would you grab a beer with some readers at Blizzcon? Those after partys are kickin’.
2:01
Dan Szymborski: I will grab a beer with any group of people that are near beer.
2:01
el gasino: pledge of allegiance: god in or god out?
2:02
Dan Szymborski: No allegiance at all.
2:02
dancing dan mcgrrrraw : you ever do stratomatic baseball?
2:02
Dan Szymborski: Not in a long time.
2:02
Dan: What player is likely to be broke in 5 years, partly because they bought a pet giraffe?
2:02
Dan Szymborski: Cespedes
2:02
Dave: If you had to vote for one candidate who is currently running, from either party who would you pick?
2:02
Dan Szymborski: Only people in the race?
2:02
Dan Szymborski: Kasich
2:02
NUX: Please explain where Trump is radically different than say Rubio, Cruz, or Bush, besides being honest enough to just be overtly racist
2:02
Dan Szymborski: Really?
2:03
Evan: Who’s going to be the better LF Schwarber or Desmond?
2:03
Dan Szymborski: Desmond
2:03
Fred: If I gave you $1 million, bu you can never watch baseball again. Would you take it?
2:03
Dan Szymborski: No.
2:03
j6takish: FFX was the worst, no world map, whiniest characters, most tedious leveling system. Every time you walked through a puddle you were defaulted to the 3 worst characters
2:03
Dan Szymborski: I liked 8 less.
2:03
el gasino: mfk: trump, hrc, sanders?
2:04
Dan Szymborski: Kill myself to avoid the other two options.
2:04
Evan: What makes Bartolo Colon so damn durable? Shaved rhino horn?
2:04
Dan Szymborski: Fat don’t splat.
2:04
Guest: Ff9 was decent
2:04
Dan Szymborski: I enjoyed it.
2:04
c: what’s the draft strategy for warrior? as many weapons as possible early game and then go late game drops?
2:04
Dan Szymborski: Fiery Win Axe.
2:04
Matt: Gary Johnson – the best pot-smoking presidential option?
2:04
Dan Szymborski: OH, I was only considering the D and R.
2:04
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, probably.
2:04
Matt: When you’re hunting leprechauns, do you usually use a net or a club?
2:04
Dan Szymborski: Glue trap. Worked for Charlie.
2:04
Dan Szymborski: END
2:04
Dan Szymborski: CAUGHT UP
2:05
Dan Szymborski: And no, I didn’t answer one question above, but that was an angry comment disguised as a question, not a real one.
2:06
Dan Szymborski: As always, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.
2:06
Dan Szymborski: Until next time, Move ‘Zig’ for great justice.
2:06
Evan: Good job! You must type 4352 wpm





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Damaso
8 years ago

missed the chat….

Open question to anyone – is the war listed in the zips released today a different calculation tgan the zwar initially released in the team by team articles?

if not, what other reason would there be for discrepancies between the numbers?

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