Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/3/14

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD WE’RE LATE TYPE 3% FASTER!

Dan Szymborski: NO TIME TO UNCHECK CAPS LOCK

Comment From Dave Cameron Diaz

Comment From Los
No. Don’t type faster. Extend chat for four hours!!!

Dan Szymborski: Cannot do! One, nobody should have to listen to me for four hours and I have a piece to finish!

Comment From zack
So Strasburg’s top comp is Mark Prior. How depressing.

Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s recent year comps, so it’s not necessarily projecting Prior’s future sadness.

Comment From Guest
Which out of these is most likely (if any) and why:

Dan Szymborski: From most likely to least likely: Why, and, any, (, if, )

Comment From Eric
Hi Dan, thanks for the chat. What are Jason Hammels ZiPs now that he is with the Cubs? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, haven’t run them yet. Still have ZiPS open.

Dan Szymborski: 7-7, 4.01 ERA, 97 ERA+, 1.6 WAR in 134.2 IP for Chicago

Comment From Jake
How many wins do the Yankees get out of McCann? Olver calls 17-18

Dan Szymborski: 13.2

Dan Szymborski: It’s important not to use Oliver in quite this way. Brian’s simply assuming 600 PA a year, so you shoudln’t extrapolate and get the idea that’s a mean projection of his playing time

Comment From RK
If you’re going an hour, isn’t 3 minutes 5%?

Dan Szymborski: Can’t expect people to type 5% faster

Dan Szymborski: And besides, Cooler Master hasn’t returned my swanktastic-but-broken mechanical keyboard yet and I can’t do more than 115 wpm on this craptastic membrane keyboard

Comment From Lance Berkman
I have a gaudy career slash line… How’s my HoF case?

Dan Szymborski: Borderline, I think. Not a super long career or a lot of defensive value. Should get some extra credit for postseason. I fear Berkman, like a lot of guys we should at least be *discussing* (Lofton, Bernie, Giles), he’ll just get ignored

Comment From Compton
Not sure if you can answer this, but how much of ZiPS are incorporated into ESPN’s rankings? Please answer even if you can’t answer because that would be a sufficient answer.

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t, ZiPS is separate. More integration in teh future is likely, but that’s as much as I can go into

Comment From STiVo
Do ZiPS’ comps represent comparable players at the same age? (e.g., Trout’s #1 comp is Mickey Mantle, when Mickey Mantle was Trout’s current age?)

Dan Szymborski: At nearly the same age. ZiPS isn’t going to go OMG 23 INSTEAD OF 22 NOT COMPARABLE. ZiPS prefers years as close as possible, but will go astray for better comps. Though it won’t compare a 20 year-old to a 30-year-old or anything

Comment From Scott-Jersey
Dan- Thoughts on Joe Mauer this year? Can he have 200 hits at 1B?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. He’s too willing to take a walk to really get the super gaudy hit totals.

Dan Szymborski: IIRC, even getting 600 PA in that .365 year, he was still like 10 short.

Comment From Jake
Any reputable sources for tracking potential draft picks? Who’s the likely number one this year?

Dan Szymborski: The usual scout guys, Law, Sickels, various FG-affiliated dudes.

Dan Szymborski: BA

Comment From Sean
Would Burnett leave the east coast (where he wants to stay) for a $20+ mill, one year deal in AZ?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little out of my purview. Nobody knows the wreck of the soul the way I do, but I don’t have information that specific about the shadows that lurk in A.J’s heart.

Comment From Guest
Which out of these is most likely (if any) and why? 1. Brett Lawrie plays 150 games with a .290+ avg and 20+ HR? 2. Brandon Morrow makes 25 starts and has an ERA under 3.20? 3. Jose Bautista plays 150 games and has a .285+ avg and 40+ HR? 4. RA Dickey wins 17+ games?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Dickey. Blue Jays should have a good offense and Dickey’s durable – he won 14 last year despite a very average season.

Comment From Jake
Silliest offseason move:

Dan Szymborski: Acquiring Freese or paying that much for Choo.

Comment From George Costanza
A piece to finish? A hair piece… are you weaving your own?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS top 100 prospects!

Comment From Triple R
The Oliver projections for Chris Davis are annoyingly optimistic (4 WAR or more in each of the next four years). What does ZIPS see in his future? What would be a good AAV for an extension?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees Davis as dropping back to a solid 3 WAR player, but you couldn’t sign him for that price now.

Dan Szymborski: Davis’s comp list is a little scary – Vaughn, Sexson, Howard, Powell, Pena, etc.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly? If someone wants to believe that 50 HR is Davis’s established baseline of ability, the O’s should trade him to that team.

Comment From Gson
Hammel = Flip at the trading deadline move for Theo/Jed or part of the cubs future(how depressing)?

Dan Szymborski: Flip, flip, flipadelphia.

Comment From Chris
Will the O’s have any interest in Bonafacio? Should they?

Dan Szymborski: Emilio? Possibly. No.

Comment From Kev
Is Rickie Weeks done?

Dan Szymborski: A moderate bounceback probably likely, but I think 2009-2011 or so was his peak and it’s going to be decline going forward.

Comment From Scott-Jersey
Dan do you think there is much difference in Ian Desmond’s numbers whether he bats 2 or 5?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From Buck Turgidson
Dan, have you gotten into EU IV yet? Man it’s a tough game.

Dan Szymborski: Nowhere near as much as I like. There are SO MANY AMAZING GAMES right now.

Comment From Graham
How do you feel about pitch framing? Do you think the effect is really that large? Does ZiPS incorporate this data?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does not and I think we’re still early enough that you have to regress that data to the mean.

Dan Szymborski: I maintain that we’re *still* not positive that we’re *only* capturing a catcher ability here.

Dan Szymborski: ANd I suspect as the data gets more popular, it’ll have an effect on games called.

Comment From Compton
Made a bet with my BFFAEAE that Rizzo would be better than Freeman this year. He gave me 10-1 odds, and we decided on WAR as the metric. Do you put Rizzo’s chances at > 9.09% ?

Dan Szymborski: I’m using a kludge since I don’t have it set up that way, but looks in the neighborhood of 15-20% in ZiPS

Comment From Jake
More ridiculous: Yankees not outbidding for Peralta/Infante, or the rays trying to trade price considering their win curve position?

Dan Szymborski: Yankees. WHY ALL THE LUXURY TAX KABUKI, YOU DIDNT HAVE TO PLAY CHRIS STEWART FOR A YEAR

Dan Szymborski: Price, the Rays have better tahn replacement options and can probably get more than he’s objectively worth.

Comment From BobbyS
Is Ryan Madson going to get a projection, or waiting to see if he signs (public work out Feb 7!)? Also, have you happened to run Scott Atchison with Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: He will and I don’t think I have yet.

Comment From bucs_lose_again
Does the Hellickson injury increase the chances of Burnett to the Rays?

Dan Szymborski: Not appreciably, the Rays aren’t going to panic and pay more than they want to.

Comment From Scott
Insane to think Choo goes .420 OBP, 120 Runs?

Dan Szymborski: Not insane, but a little on the high side.

Comment From Los
Can someone put a disclaimer at the beginning of every chat to learn how Oliver projections work before asking questions like the one above?

Comment From Gson
Who hangs up (assumes deal is proposed)..Justin Masterson to the Dodgers for Julio Urias, Chris Anderson and Stephen Fife?

Dan Szymborski: Urias is a high price. Even as a *very* young pitcher, he performed extremely well. The Dodgers will pay, but they also don’t just dump their top prospects – they haven’t been in a hurry to trade Pederson, for instance.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Want to do me (someone you don’t know) a huge, gratuitous favor? Run ZiPS on AJ Burnett for the 2014 Orioles! Everyone wins.

Dan Szymborski: It somewhere on my Twitter, perhaps google can help. I did BAL and TB projections for Burnett, also proejcted him (by request) for Seibu Lions and in 1962 Pittsburgh.

Comment From Jake
Most feasible Yankee trade target: Adnrelton Simons, JJ hardy, Aramis Ramirez, Chase Headley, or Lonnie Chisenhall

Dan Szymborski: Ramirez probably the most likely if the Brewers are having a meh season. Simmons isn’t going anywhere, the O’s won’t trade Hardy to the Yankees, and I think if Padres finally do get serious about moving Headley, someone will give them more than the Yankees will

Comment From Gson
Ubaldo signs for a one year pillow contract at $ 14 MM with the Indians?..

Dan Szymborski: Nah, I still think he’ll do better than that

Comment From Buck Turgidson
Every year recently the Angels spend some money and folks start wanking their hype chain and they kind of suck. Decent bullpen but I’m not seeing a ton of upside in that rotation. You think they can compete for the division?

Dan Szymborski: Uphill climb, but the rotation’s not so bad. Weaver/Wilson/Santiago/Skaggs could be a reasonable front 4. I’m still a Skaggs believer and not just because I’ve been playing Borderlands 2 again lately.

Comment From Guest
Some report from ESPN New York causes speculation Lagares would likely be platooned or start the season in AAA because Duca is going to get at bats regardless. When does one negate the other’s contribution?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I think the Mets need to trade Duda. He has no business playing in the outfiefld.

Comment From Jake
Giambi manages the 2020s CLE teams to a pennant, ~2-4 Central titles, .540+ win %. Is he HOF?

Dan Szymborski: No. He’s not getting in.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Do you think Harper outperforms ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: He *could* (50%!) but I think it’s a reasonable projection

Comment From Farting for Science
When someone says they’re running Monte Carlo simulation on 10,000 seasons and using XYZ projection system, can you translate that into English?

Dan Szymborski: It’s essentially flipping a coin a whole lot and writing down the results, but having a PC do it much quicker than you can and with a lot more interconnected probabilities.

Comment From Grant
What’s the difference between ZiPS, Steamer, Oliver, etc.? How should one interpret different projections from each system?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t tell you exactly what is different about Steamer/Oliver approach as I don’t run those.

Comment From KJ
I’d be interested to see Fan projections before Oliver and Steamer come out. Seems to me the fans always seem to more or less split the difference.

Dan Szymborski: Fan projections more likely to be optimistic

Comment From Boston Phan
Does ZIPS top 100 prospects mean for 2014 performance or total career value?

Dan Szymborski: Career value. There are guys there that aren’t getting a full 2014 official projection.

Comment From STiVo
Any idea what the name “Steamer” refers to? I can’t help but associate this with a “steaming pile,” which biases me against the system.

Dan Szymborski: You’d have to ask Cross. I think I remember the story at some point, but I don’t remember it now

Comment From JT
In the discussions of parity in MLB, typically whenever the Yankees spend for a FA, why do people fixate on World Series titles over playoff appearances? Titles obscure how much you can at least get yourself into the playoff crap shoot.

Dan Szymborski: Baseball does just as well when you count playoffs.

Dan Szymborski: or when you count game by game. There are way more 14-2 NFL teams than MLB teams that go 14-2 in any 16 game stretch. There are way more 60-game NBA winners than MLB teams that go 60-22 in any 82 game stretch (did something in ESPN Mag about this)

Comment From Randy Milligan
Nice article by Patrick Dubuque in THT about me today: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-tale-of-the-forgotten-moose/.

Dan Szymborski: MOOOOOOOSE!

Comment From dbet
What did ZiPS say was your top comp?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t project baseball writers, but someone did once write me to tell me I looked like a cross between Hermann Goering and Shrek.

Comment From RK
Think the M’s will roll with Hart, Lomo, and Smoak or is there is move yet to be made?

Dan Szymborski: I think they go with it en route to 4th place.

Comment From Boston Phan
Who provides the most value in 2014 – Capuano, Chen, or Hammel?

Dan Szymborski: Chen’s probably safest, but Capuano’s most likely to have a neato season.

Comment From Jake
What team suffers from the biggest delusion? That is, who overvalues what skill or stat the most?

Dan Szymborski: Phillies.

Dan Szymborski: On everything.

Comment From Jake
Does next year’s world series get a bigger youth draw?

Dan Szymborski: No. I think the age thing in baseball has always been overrated – baseball has aged older for a couple generations now

Dan Szymborski: err skewed older

Dan Szymborski: Some of the bleating about baseball’s graying is like it would be if people claimed that nursing homes were all going to go out of business because all their patients are super old and sicker than average.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
EUIV is a tough game because the best players constantly push the devs to nerf all the things that normal players use to succeed.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Am I crazy in thinking that Duquette really knows what he’s doing? I realize the offseason can be seen as frustrating; but I actually believe he is implementing a strategic long-term plan while working within the insane constraints of ownership–which is more than the other recent Orioles GMs can say.

Dan Szymborski: He’s doing well with the constraints, but Emeril ain’t turning chicken shit into chicken salad.

Comment From Ringtone Composer
Which minor league team is closest to you? Any good prospects worth catching there?

Dan Szymborski: Dayton Dragons. Got to see some Robert Stephenson. Haven’t thought ahead yet who would be in Dayton this year.

Comment From The Clemente Wall
If they each play a half season, who puts up the better WAR, Tabata/Snider or Polanco?

Dan Szymborski: Polanco. I assume Gregory, not a random signing of Placebo.

Comment From Jake
Two years ago Matt Swartz tested projection systems (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/testing-projections-for-2011/), he essentially found Steamer came out ahead for pitchers, Oliver for hitters. Any recent reports like this? Still think this is a decent way to go for projections?

Dan Szymborski: Projection systems are all very close – there are at least a half dozen legit ways to compare

Dan Szymborski: Tango ran like a million a few years ago and all systems came out best in something or other. I’m mostly focusing on long-term stuff now to try and improve that.

Comment From Dustin
Can we get a Tracy McGrady ZIPs projection. Tall and lanky with decent velocity. A young 35 with low mileage on his arm. He’s basically Chris Young, isn’t he?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: KARATE CHOP

Comment From Jake
Offseason contract the team’s gonna regret in it’s first year:

Dan Szymborski: Vargas, Feldman, Nolasco

Comment From JBD
Bucket List entry #7: Eat large bowl of Cincinnati Chili; immediately run marathon.

Dan Szymborski: Nothing on my bucket list involves ingesting cincinnati chili

Dan Szymborski: WHY DOES IT TASTE LIKE PUMPKIN PIE WHY DO THEY CALL IT A CONEY ITS THIS WEIRD STEAMED FLESHY MINIDILDO WHAT KIND OF GOD WOULD ALLOW THIS TO EXIST

Comment From juan pierres mustache
snowed, didn’t get the day off, may be trapped at the office. please send beer and a computer that can run tf2

Comment From sportznut
When do you think you might have the final spreadsheet and defensive ratings done?

Dan Szymborski: ahrd to tell, but should beat last year. I’mw ay ahead in the projections from last year and I finally had a january in which I didn’t apparently get a case of the plague

Comment From Dan
Looking at guys like Stamets and Michael Taylor, it seems like Zips is getting more aggressive with minor league D projections. What’s going into that?

Dan Szymborski: Refined my total zone system thing and I’ve worked my scouting report parser into defensive data. Only really more aggressive with a few on the top end

Comment From RotoLando
What kind of donuts do they have over there?

Dan Szymborski: There’s dunkin donuts. There’s a good indie donut place named Bill’s donuts.

Comment From Jake
Any way a casual fan can run ZiPS on potential players on a team? I’d love to be able to calculate having a 3 win player at LF

Dan Szymborski: No. ZiPS isn’t a formula, but hundreds of separate algorithms, a Monte Carlo aspect, with some non-parametric modeling.

Comment From sportznut
How do you explain a guy with 276 PA above A ball (Sano) getting a better projection than a perrennial AS in the prime of his career (A. Jones)?

Dan Szymborski: Well, for one, he didn’t. 3.3 > 2.6. And you’re both overrating Jones and assuming that he still has significant upside left.

Comment From Go Steamers
Steamer is the mascot from the school Cross teaches at.

Dan Szymborski: I hope the school isn’t Cleveland something.

Comment From Book_Worm
Is there a fan base that surprises you with its reasonable reaction to annual ZiPS postings? Like, is there a team whose fans just say, “Yeah, that sounds about right?”

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From J
Dan, what are some of the more interesting factors ZiPS uses to make projections? Non-boxscore stats?

Dan Szymborski: Velocity data most interesting in current build. The comp stuff si the most fun.

Comment From Ryan
Which team’s ZIPS projections have been most surprisingly positive/negative?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes the Reds more than I do and I like the Pirates mroe than ZiPS does.

Dan Szymborski: Though it’ll be closer when I do full fins.

Dan Szymborski: Err full sims.

Dan Szymborski: Did I type full fins? Dafuq?

Comment From Simba
The Mets and Marlins will both finish with a better record than the Phillies in 2014. Convince me otherwise.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a legit possibility, though I think the Phillies will edge out at least one.

Comment From DJ
Zips projections seem relatively high for Trumbo (at first glance). Any indication whatZIPS is thinking will spur the .61 jump in SLG?

Dan Szymborski: He’s going from a lousy hitters park to an easier league with a better hitters park.

Comment From Jake
Any feasible changes Tex can make to bring up his BABIP? He was on HOF trajectory before his BABIP went sub .250

Dan Szymborski: STOP UPPERCUTTING EVERYTHING YOU ARE NOT DRIVING A GOLF BALL

Dan Szymborski: Teixeira, not you. I don’t know what your swing is like.

Comment From Jeff
Does Ubaldo make the Jays a playoff team or do they need Ubaldo and more to compete?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re a second-tier contender and Ubaldo makes it a little more likely. Not a lot of game changing moves to make without getting Price or something

Comment From Jake
Practical concerns aside, if the NFL could feasibly play 162 games in a season, would winning percentages look more like baseball, or would teams still regularly post >.800 winning %?

Dan Szymborski: Kind of curious myself. Though practically, you’d have a lot of parity after you’ve killed most of the starters, backups, practice squads, and random dragooned hobos they’d be forced to resort to by game 100 or so

Comment From Race Bannon
How much crap did you get from Yankee fans for your 4th place piece – usual amount, more than usual, exceedingly more than usual, or still cleaning it off the walls?

Dan Szymborski: A crapload. An anti-yankees piece on ESPN always results in a bounty of traffic and hate mail.

Comment From Jake
During the WS, Keith Olbermann claimed the reason baseball gets it’s butt kicked in ratings by NFL is because the NFL works to build national appeal for teams, putting pats fans in Oklahoma, while baseball fandom, either purposely or by design and history, is far more local. Could the league build broader appeal/better ratings if it encouraged national fan bases?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it would really help. The game of football is more designed for each game to be an Event.

Comment From Perry
Which position players have surprised you the most with their seasonal WAR? any year…good or bad

Dan Szymborski: Arismendy Alcantara

Comment From JBD
Antonin Scalia: discuss

Dan Szymborski: Wait, did he do something today?

Dan Szymborski: But political questions are always asking for trouble as I’m unlikely to hae the same political leanings as most readers.

Dan Szymborski: I keep away from discussing politics seriously, but I self-identify as a georgist libertarian and held my nose and voted for Romney (my previous pres votes: nobody, Nader, Browne, Clinton).

Comment From RotoLando
It’s only a “mini” dildo if your…you know what? Nevermind.

Dan Szymborski: They’re *really* small, those “coneys”

Comment From rsf
In defense of Cincinnati chili, I WOULD eat it rather than die of hunger.

Comment From Ryan
Do you make significant changes to ZIPS from year to year/do the changes tend to improve ZIPS’ accuracy compared to reality?

Dan Szymborski: one-year projection improvements are subtle, not groundbreaking. ZiPS is always evolving, but I’m very conservative. There’s always a ZiPS build that’s a few years ahead of the “official” one

Comment From Bkgeneral
Which QO free agent signs last?

Dan Szymborski: Cruz

Comment From Dustin
Could a person get 90% of the way to Zips or Steamer’s accuracy just weighting past performance and using a rigid, possibly not even accurate aging curve?

Dan Szymborski: Probably. That’s one reason why I developed ZiPS to have and report all kinds of interesting information rather than the simple one-year mean

Comment From Slacker George
When did ZIPS start to incorporate 1960’s comedic actress data?

Dan Szymborski: Ha, I sometimes like to stick an easter egg in the top comp.

Dan Szymborski: What slacker is referring to is that the top comp for Tyler Moore is listed as Marlo Thomas

Comment From Mr. Wrestling IV
The Fan projections usually overshoot playing time by 20% or so (per Cameron). I see myself do it when I submit them, but it’s hard to guess which non-injury prone guy is giong to miss time.

Dan Szymborski: People that love baseball are going to have a tendency to be optimistic about baseball players.

Dan Szymborski: Since we want to see great performances, we’re more likely to believe that they’re possible or likely.

Comment From Bret
At the start of the offseason, you and others said that the Jays strategy should be to either fold or double-down. Given that they certainly haven’t doubled-down, should they have folded?

Dan Szymborski: Depends whether they get a pitcher. I think they’re good enough to be interesting in the short-term, but still feel they would’ve been smarter to alter their trajectory in one way or the other

Comment From JG
I once had a professor tell us that the next person to write “this data” instead of “these data” in a lab report would get a zero. He followed up, too. Any way of applying that lesson to FG chats?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a very good technical writer and was a lazy, mediocre student.

Comment From Ryan
Re: Scalia– did a bang up job on the Confrontation Clause but dropped the ball in his Boyle majority opinion.

Dan Szymborski: Wait, did the confrontation clause pop up in the news?

Dan Szymborski: Personally, even though it has some nasty repercussions in very specific case, I think it’s necessary.

Comment From Showtime
A day after the Super Bowl, do you think Russell Wilson will ever play a game in the bigs? What about Jameis Winston? Do you think we will ever see another two-sport athlete?

Dan Szymborski: No and no, but I think we will someday.

Comment From The Oberamtmann
Who has more smash? Szym smash or August the strong of Saxony? Look him up if you don’t know who he is

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty strong, but that dude reportedly had crazy physical strength

Dan Szymborski: bending metal bars I think?

Dan Szymborski: Though that could be apocryphal

Comment From sportznut
You say I overrate Adam Jones, yet ZiPs projects him to have his lowest WAR in 4 years when his numbers have clearly improved the last two seasons, and he’s 28 most of this year.

Dan Szymborski: That’s not a projection, that’s drawing a line.

Comment From RotoLando
New wrestling nickname for Zim…Gorgeous Georgist.

Comment From The Oberamtmann
August the Strong of Saxony SMASH

Comment From KJ
Would SEA even take Kendrys back at this point? What discount?

Dan Szymborski: They might. Poor guy might not be employed otherwise.

Comment From froglegs jackson
How does ZIPS project today’s Manchester City @ Chelsea FC match?

Dan Szymborski: My non-American football knowledge is very, very limited. Ask Voros!

Dan Szymborski: All I know was that it was the one sport I *hated* playing as a kid and I always try to follow the World Cup and end up literally dozing off on the couch

Comment From Guest
Does ZiPS take defense into account for pitcher stats?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but it’s not super aggressive

Comment From DTSS
One of my biggest pet peeves is plural ‘data’. No one ever says ‘datum’. English is not Latin. Saying ‘data are’ in English sounds weird and unnatural.

Comment From The Oberamtmann
He snapped a horseshoe is half with one hand. For the ladies.

Dan Szymborski: Lousy King of Poland though.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to leave for another week. Thanks for joining me, and I hope to see you all next week!

Comment From sportznut
To be frank, I’m not really complaining so much as I’m trying to understand this system better. It seems pessimistic towards players who have proven it at the ML level, while often giving very good to great projections for players who have barely sniffed AA.

Dan Szymborski: What I’m arguing is that you’re overrating the value of “proven.” And very few minor leaguers have projections that put them into the solid range.

Dan Szymborski: You’re essentially taking one of the absolute *best* projections for an elite prospect and comparing it against that of an overrated, but solid player.

Dan Szymborski: And he *still* falls short.