Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/12/26

Dan Szymborski: A rarity! Dan is on time and not distracted by arguing something with someone elsewhere

robertobeers: A man a Dan a chat cat update tadputactahcanadanama

Poncetification: When pondering Ponce, how does ZiPS weigh the surge in Korea vs more mediocrity in Japan vs MLB and MiLB way back when?

Dan Szymborski: Most strongly (since it’s most recent), but it’s also treated like a league between AA and AAA

Dan Szymborski: That doesn’t mean the best players aren’t as good as MLBers, but the depth of talent isn’t the same, and a pitcher/hitter will face mostly non-MLB talents’

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees NPB as between AAA and MLB

sgb: I noticed that your projections are the lowest of any for Aaron Judge. Is that because you have included post season stats and the others haven’t?

Dan Szymborski: They are?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS DC is 7.8 WAR, 175 wRC+ while Steamer is 6.6, 170

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS and THE BAT are close in the middle, Steamer on the low end, OOPSY on the high end

Dan Szymborski: And ZiPS does give Judge a small hit with postseason stats

Dan Szymborski: though 2025 was fine

Dan Szymborski: 137 postseason PA in four years is *something* but it’s also not going to be massive

Surplus Valuez = Stolen Wages: What’s the best ZiPs projection a DSL player can receive/achieve?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, since I don’t project many of them! Probably fairly low, of course, since there’s only so much you can show in the DSL

Idiotic Failson: Why does ZIPS hate my favorite player?

Dan Szymborski: That’s between you and your creator

Old No. 7: Any upward mobility clauses or upcoming opt-outs of significance we should be aware of?

Dan Szymborski: Anything not already known? Not sure

Chris: Brewers have a ton of arms. Based on what you think, what 5 SP gets most starts in rotation this year for them?

Dan Szymborski: I think the depth chart is on point here

Phil: What do you think is Triston Casas’s future? It feels like the Sox are moving on, but then Casas still has a year of team control beyond Contreras’s current contract–will they just keep him in reserve?

Dan Szymborski: Since he still has minor league options, I expect he’ll play full time in AAA while the Red Sox assess where he is

Dan Szymborski: They might need him

Dan Szymborski: I have a piece in the queue, and one of the characteristics of the worst projected Red Sox seasons that was common was a surprisingly poor Contreras season. Aging non-star 1B appear to have really long left tails in their distros

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: A Dan chat? In this economy? Which team will most regret not making one more mid-sized move this offseason?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Which unheralded Rays pitcher will break out and end the season with the most “he’d get some Cy Young votes if he’d pitched more innings” chatter?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cubs will regret not getting one more starting pitcher

Dan Szymborski: Joe Boyle maybe? I mean his projections aren’t amazing or anything, but he seems like one of those guys that IF he works out, he really works out

War2D2: Dan! A long-ish time ago you responded to my questions on Bluesky about custom keyboards. I recently acquired a Keychron V6 Max and love it. I am planning on customizing the keycaps and switches piecemeal. Thanks again for answering my weird niche hobby questions!

Dan Szymborski: No problem! I’m definitely a keyboard nerd

Dan Szymborski: Though I haven’t made any purchases along those lines

Dan Szymborski: I’ve cut down on bullshit purchases lately, because I’m still trying to cost/benefit out whether it’s a good idea to get a used bosendorfer grand if I find a decent one under 25K or so

TooDamnTall: Dan, can you please contact YouTube and get them to remove all instances of Kevin Mitchell’s barehanded catch removed from ‘best defensive plays’ videos. Thanks in advance

Broken Bat: Does a super Spring training like McLain of Reds is having carry much weight in his 2026 projections? Surgery in 2023, missed 2024, maybe a year to get rust out? Anyway, what are your thiughrs

Dan Szymborski: It’ll have SOME weight, but it depends the magnitude

Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah: Semi-surprised to learn that, after Detroit’s recent FA splurge, San Fran’s payroll is no longer Top 10. Ignoring the utter inanity that is John Henry’s Boston, does Charles Johnson top your list of big market baseball owners who should give waaaaay more sh!tes about winning baseball games?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d go that far

Dan Szymborski: After all, they quite publicly were all-in on Aaron Judge and a lot of people thought it was a done deal. They also were in on Ohtani at a good price

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: If got to go to the original Fantasy Island, do you pick a baseball-themed fantasy (like the one where Radar from MASH got to play with George Brett and Fred Lynn) or something else?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly, though if my dreams are any indication, it would be random mid-tier players not stars

Dan Szymborski: “I got in a fight with Hunter Strickland in an elevator but we agreed to a truce because we had to team up to pass Brexit for some reason.”

Dan Szymborski: “I was talking with Albert PUjols during spring training 2019 and he decided to retire after getting schooled by a hardthrowing submariner pitcher for the Dodgers from AA, Peaver Stockfriars.”

Dan Szymborski: “I traded Billy Ripken to the Reds for farm equipment but the farm equipment didn’t work”

Dan Szymborski: “Me and a bunch of other saber guys kidnapped a whole bunch of pitchers for some reason. My job was to kidnap Jose Rosado, which I did, and he was very annoyed that he had been kidnapped. He started yelling, so I hid him by turning him into a cob of corn and covering him with aluminum foil. But I covered his mouth and it accidentally killed him”

Dan Szymborski: And so on. I have the dreams of a madman

Dan Szymborski: ” me and Rick Schu went to get cheesesteaks but for some reason we got them at Best Buy.”

Dan Szymborski: I once threw my full dream log into AI to see if it could deduce any pattern and while it obviously referenced seemingly random baseball players, mostly 80s/90s guys, there’s also a pattern in which I’m absolutely frustrated because I’m trying to fix something and other people’s incompetence is standing in my way

TooDamnTall: Is everyone right or is everyone wrong?

Dan Szymborski: Both!

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Which Freaky Friday was freakier — the original with Jodie Foster or the remake with Lindsay Lohan?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t actually see the remake

Dan Norman Lear: What’s your take on the Rangers’ yoots Jung and Carter? Any “post-hype” upside?

Dan Szymborski: Jung probably not. It’s hard to get lost injury time back and he’s not young

Dan Szymborski: Carter’s still young enough there’s a decent chance he can still become something more than he is now

EccentricATLFan: So, now that you’ve established that you were a prophet with Luzardo and predicting it’d be more than ZiPS projection, any willingness to share the upcoming lottery numbers with us?

Dan Szymborski: But then I’d have to share it with you guys

Dan Szymborski: I once was discussing the lottery with my mom and she was convinced that if I won the lottery, I probably wouldn’t spend 95% of it and would mostly just keep on what I normally do

Dan Szymborski: which kind of takes the fun out of imagining winning the lottery

Chris: With Matt McLain, is it simply an issue of health to return to 2023 form, or is he more likely to settle in somewhere in the middle? Aside from the gaudy spring stats, is he back?

Dan Szymborski: I think somewhere in the middle. There’s just a lot of unknown there

Pop: Does ZiPs factor in things like Velocity? Randy Vasquez has seen increased velo this spring training and I assume that will help his projections

Dan Szymborski: Yes

SJF: Who are some prospects over the years ZIPS has been low on that you had to resist the urge to just hard code a rosier number in for em?? (obviously joking on the data manipulation)

Dan Szymborski: Walcott for one, though ZiPS came around on him

Jamey: I think I read that at least some Statcast data is available for Speing Training. I’m curious if that data will be enough to influence projections for the current season, or if there’s just not enough data still.

Oaktown Blues: Will ZiPS be able to incorporate Spring training statcast data into projections this year? Or do you need to wait until next year so you can see how it translates to regular season?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS won’t have spring training statcast yet. It is probably a year or two down the road

Dan Szymborski: New things never get implemented the same year

Dan Szymborski: Well, except for figuring out the 2020 short season, I couldn’t wait until 2022 to consider 2021 projections

Crabcakes: I know, I know, Spring Training stats don’t mean anything, but Coby Mayo has come to the plate 28 times and has 1 K, 0 BB, and .500 AVG.  Please tell me what this means.

Dan Szymborski: Not a TON, but it probably means SOMETHING

TooDamnTall: I haven’t looked too deeply into this, but I sort of noticed dwindling 3 year projections for multiple pitchers that didn’t appear to be age related. Did I just happen upon some randomness, or do pitchers all have (I assume) risk baked into projections that far out?

Dan Szymborski: All pitchers have some risk, especially healthy ones

Dan Szymborski: There’s occasionally some weirdness when it gets into FG

Zach: I just read a random MLB.com article listing the best baseball nicknames of all day and they listed “All Rise” for Judge at No. 10. First of all, that’s not a nickname! Second, we’re way worse at assigning cool names to people than we used to be. Polar Bear for Pete Alonso might be the best work at present and I’m struggling to think of better ones… anyway, what’s your nickname Dan, so we can address you properly in all future chats?

Dan Szymborski: I normally just go by Dan or Szym rather than a nickname

Dan Szymborski: though the Murray Chass-coined Digital Dandy is the preferred nickname

Dan Szymborski: I’m kinda heart-broken that my mom didn’t get her way with the baby naming with me since she wanted Alexander, but my dad hated that name. Zander Szymborski has a nice ring to it. I might have even spelled it Zander Zymborski

Dan Szymborski: or Xander Xymborski

Darryl Vanilla: Why does the FanGraphs Depth Chart hate Carson Benge’s

Darryl Vanilla: fielding?

Dan Szymborski: not sure!

Crabcakes: Are there stats where the trend is more useful for the prediction of the future than the actual value?  E.g. velocity/spin on a pitch or sprint speed or bat speed?  Seems like changes in those, whatever they may have started from, would herald changes in outcome

Dan Szymborski: velocity deltas are really useful

Dan Szymborski: maybe not AS useful, but a CHANGE in a strikeout rate can be just as crucial as the strikeout rate itself

Robbie314: I know he’s just a minor league signing, but say something nice about Andrew McCutchen?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not the craziest Hall of Famer on a peak level

Dan Szymborski: I’m almost certainly one of the writers who gives him the most consideration in six years or so

BaseballFan: Who would you say has a lineup better built for power, Mets, Mariners, or Orioles

Dan Szymborski: Orioles

Idiotic Failson: Are you planning on incorporating AI into your projections, if for nothing else for coding?

Dan Szymborski: No, though I do use it to check my visual basic lines

Krontz: Will Bazzana be Guardians starter at 2B by ASB? Rocchio move to SS?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility

Insert Witty Name Here: Way to casually mention you can spend 25k on a used piano.  Don’t go to Soviet Russia anytime soon.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not wealthy, I’m just a middle-aged man with a good income, little debt, no kids, and who doesn’t care much about stuff

Dan Szymborski: and I live in a low cost of living area

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been playing piano for more than 40 years, and I rarely have the opportunity to play on bosendorfers as I’ve always preferred their sounds to steinway or bechstein

War2D2: Tbf I think most people have gotten into fights with Hunter Strickland, in this or the dream world.

Krontz: MLB 2027 …. best guess when opening day occurs? May 1 reasonable?

Dan Szymborski: To finish the question, I’m not really a spender at all. I own three pairs of shoes. I have one suit, and my haircuts are like $25.

Dan Szymborski: Scared to answer that question

Dan Szymborski: seems like bad karma inviting me

Dan Szymborski: I suspect that the mode outcome is a normal seasonal opening

Dan Szymborski: but there are really long, bad tails out there

Dan Szymborski: I actually think the owners aren’t actually deadset on a salary cap, that it’s a negotiating position that they believe they can come off of in return for the MLBPA not pushing for another thing

Dan Szymborski: Because, MLB already has a soft salary cap. And the teams that are blowing by it are already paying a FUCKTON of money into the league in penalties

Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers paid $169 million to the league las tyear

Dan Szymborski: A real salary cap would come with a floor, which might be worse for the cheap teams than the status quo is

Dan Szymborski: and a salary cap would involve owners having to disclose more of their finances

Insert Witty Name Here: A few weeks back in a chat you mentioned Minds Eye and I had a flashback as a kid watching this from my dad’s VHS collection. I wonder how many hours of shitty early 90’s computer programming it took to make this.

War2D2: Do you think the Cubs still won their division? Or do you think the relative paucity of starter options will bite them in a long season?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re favorites, though not prohibitive ones

Crabcakes: Gerrit Cole returning more like old Verlander “two years off just means I’m well rested for a CY level performance” or more like old Scherzer “I’m getting progressively dinged up and transforming into wily veteran”?

Dan Szymborski: I think more Scherzer, but that’s just my gut

Austin: Bit of a sillier question, but how much stupid stuff can ZIPS project? I was curious if ZIPS could spit out a win total and total runs scored projection for a team with 9 Aaron Judge’s and their home stadium is Coors. Silly thought experiment stuff like that. Love all your work!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is pretty flexible, so it’s made to handle stupid stuff

Dan Szymborski: Submit that in a mailbag Q!

Oscar: Who do you expect puts up the most WAR this year between Griffin, Weatherholt, and McGonigle? Does it just depend on whether Griffin is able to make the OD roster, or is there any case for the other 2 if all 3 get promoted?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to be chicken and say Wetherholt since I’m simply the most confident in him getting the most PA

Idiotic Failson: Whenever I talk about you (which, admittedly, has been never) I refer to you as ‘the cat guy’

BaseballFan: What is your favorite fielding stat?

Dan Szymborski: Noel Fielding now has many more appearances co-hosting a baking show than for the mighty boosh

Key Flaw: How strong is your Bawlmer/Mayrlin accent? Has it mellowed since you left? As a Maryland native, when I lived in Kentucky the natives marveled over my accent (it was reciprocal marveling). Since my parents weren’t Marylanders, mine wasn’t quite so bad, and with modern media most accents are mellowing in general. What do you do to keep the accent alive and well?

Dan Szymborski: On a casual level, I don’t really have an accent. My dad was the only member of the family I saw much that had much of a Baltimore accent, and he’s been dead for 30 years and only a limited part of my life for an additional 5 or so

Dan Szymborski: My mom’s accent is kind of neutral and my mom’s parents, who I was very close with (especially my grandfather) had a German accent and a heavy New York accent

Dan Szymborski: (my grandfather was a lawyer from the Bronx)

Dan Szymborski: Now, a *linguist* could probably identify my accent, simply because I have normal characteristics of mid-atlantic accents

Dan Szymborski: that NY Times dialect tool some years ago nailed me absolutely perfectly

Dan Szymborski: but that’s more subtle things, like if cot-caught are the same word for you (they’re nto for me)

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t say ruff for roof or wooder for water

Dan Szymborski: I save everything

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: IIf you want to confirm my accent one way or the other in a more objective way, it’s rpobably easiest to just listen to one of my podcast appearances and investigate for yourself!

Coby Extra Mayo: Which of these guys are you highest on long term? Kyle Harrison, Mick Abel, Parker Messick. Who’s going to have the best 2025 from that group?

Dan Szymborski: I think Harrison is the most likely to be REALLY good, but I think Messick has the best average result

Opifijikl: When analyzing ZiPS data, do you visualize it or just look at it in a table? I’ve thought there may be an way to see the shapes of players’ projected production or other interesting trends, but I’m not sure what/how.

Dan Szymborski: I like tables. A giant spreadsheet full of values is something I process very well

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super visual

Dan Szymborski: I like dense data. And I have a 34-inch 4K monitor that opens spreadsheets with a default of Tahoma 8-point

War2D2: Xander Xymborski is 100% a William Gibson villain name.

Wes: Is Giolito going to be on a major league rotation on opening day? Is Kopech going to be on a major league team?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think probably

Lowetide: If there is a lockout next year, will you do a simulated season we can follow along to? I can’t imagine it would be much work. 🙂

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I can get Ben to bring back the MLB Showcast on Twitch that we did during the pandemic

Dan Szymborski: that was a real hoot to do

Dan Szymborski: especially the time one of my cats brought me a live bee

Key Flaw: Today is Steve Finley’s birthday apparently. Could you possibly do a ZiPS on the 1991 Orioles (and beyond) to see what would have happened if they didn’t send Finley, Harnish, and Schilling for…. (this is hard to type out)…. Glenn Davis. Also…. which is worse, the Glenn Davis trade or the Jeffery Maier catch?

Dan Szymborski: I could put that in my to do list. I’ve been kinda saving ZiPS Time Warps for a work stoppage

Jasper: Hey Dan! Do you think managers still set lineups? There’s a lot of consternation in the A’s community that Mark Kotsay is using Kurtz as the leadoff hitter, but I have to think that’s a front office decision, no?

Dan Szymborski: It varies from team to team

Dan Szymborski: I think people who don’t know what they’re talking about GREATLY overestimate just how much a front office “forces” on managers

Projectable: Two random questions as I overanalyze preseason ZiPS projections

• I didn’t see any league adjusted pitcher stats – can I make my own by dividing out the park factors? Or does ZiPS on some level project its own park factors
• I notice the Steamer projections now have handedness splits available, but not ZiPS. Is there a chance something like that is available on the projections page too? Or is there a difference between whats on the projections page and in the team previews?

Love the projections as always, super fun to see how the model rates players

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why they’re not up, David has the splits

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s kinda weird we don’t list ERA- or FIP- as part of projectiont ables

Dan Szymborski: maybe I’ll bring that up

Guest: I’ve heard some debate with WBC about who you’d start a franchise with if you could pick 1 MLB player. Seems like the most popular picks are Ohtani, Judge, or BWJr.

ZIPs projects Ohtani as the most valuable player this upcoming season (summing his pitching and batting WAR), and I assume it does for 2027 and 2028 as well

What year does ZIPs no longer project Ohtani to be MLB’s WARlord? And who does it project instead

Dan Szymborski: That might be a good piece actually. I did it with Trout some years ago

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trouts-inevitable-decline/

War2D2: I’ve said it before, I think on one of Jay’s chats, but I think we don’t lose any games this time around. The owners are negotiating from a very weak position, what with all the TV contracts coming up. My guess is the collective bargaining agreement after this one is the one that hurts.

Dan Szymborski: One caveat: the players also showed a lack of willingness to lose games last time

Adam: Did you ever regularly watch Survivor?  Have you watched Survivor 50?  Who would win in an all-FG staff Survivor?

Dan Szymborski: I used to in the early seasons. I lost interest as it started feeling less like a random collection of people who had no idea what they were doing and started having a more “casted” feeling with 2/3 of the cast being random LA actor/model/waiter types who were basically recruited and random famous B people and returning contestants

Alby: But if you won the lottery you could buy a new Bodendorfer!

Dan Szymborski: That *is* something I’d definitely do if I won the lottery

Idiotic Failson: I am of the opinion that the teams that offer those ludicrous deferred deals like the Dodgers and Mets only do so because they can park the money that they have to put in escrow in their own asset management businesses. Do you have any insight on that?

Dan Szymborski: Not directly, but teams like those know a lot about the time value of money

Oaktown Blues: ZiPS still sees some promise in Zack Gelof, projecting a nearly league average bat. But he ran a 45% K rate last year (in 100 PAs). Do you agree with ZiPS that a bounce back is in the cards?

Dan Szymborski: To an extent

Oaktown Blues: Favorite Noel Fielding stat: he won series 4 of Taskmaster

Oaktown Blues: So that we can definitely evaluate your accent, please film yourself saying “Aaron earned an iron urn”

Dan Szymborski: https://soundcloud.com/dan-szymborski/aaron-earned-an-iron-urn

Dr. Grumbles: I enjoyed the AI FanGraphs villain song a few weeks ago

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: here’s that, for those who might be confused by the reference

Dan Szymborski: https://suno.com/song/ffb13c6f-2c39-4688-b5fc-b8023b862039?sh=XiXI7vyd…

Guest: would you ever post an audit of zips? showing how effective it is at predicting different metrics? would be good transparency

Dan Szymborski: The data’s all out there and I frequently post calibration data on Twitter

Dan Szymborski: Projection systems are so close that I can hardly be impartial on the best way to evaluate ZiPS

Guest: was sorta surprised there wasn’t a FG article on Team USA’s game against Italy. I like coming to FG for the level headed analysis.  Made me wonder– are articles generally assigned, or do writers just pitch ideas and Meg approves?

Dan Szymborski: Generally we call dibs about what we’re doing in fangraphs slack

Dan Szymborski: Writers almost get to write what they want

Dan Szymborski: Now, when there are individual things, like putting together chats or pre-writes for free agents or the positional report assignments, then they’re usually assigned

Tacoby Bellsbury: Rank the tools in order of importance: Bat Masterson, Will Power, Throw Pillow, Speed Racer, Noel Fielding

Dan Szymborski: lol

Kimbo: What do you think happens with Isaac Paredes?  Seems like a very crowded infield and he is great when healthy

Dan Szymborski: I STILL kinda think he gets traded

Surplus Valuez = Stolen Wages: Chance the Cubs get 12-15 fWAR from the non-1B IF?

Dan Szymborski: 45% maybe?

Guest: in low info environments like milb, does zips use available pitch characteristics / location data to help improve projections?

Dan Szymborski: no, though it’s something I’d like to see long term if I have the data support

Oaktown Blues: You actually recorded the phrase! FG response to user feedback is unparalleled

Dan: Inspired by the  Cody Ponce question that started the chat… if we agree that the current level of talent in MLB goes up over time, how far back do you have to go until it’s the same level as current NBP? Like, presumably NBP won’t ever fully catch up to MLB, as most of their absolute best players come here… but then MLB sends back the guys who just barely fall out of the league. So it makes sense that it’s as good as AAAA… is AAAA today as good as the majors in 1985? 1970? Will NBP in 25 years be as good as the bigs today?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite sure HOW to answer that since the vast majority of our NPB->MLB/Milb data is over the last 25 years

Dan Szymborski: and like all of KBO

Karl Hungus: The Pasquash is a great nickname.

Keith Hernandez: Who has a better season: Brett Baty or Mark Vientos?

Dan Szymborski: Baty, he simply has more use on the current roster

Greg: Torpedo bats was fun. But putting that aside, do you think teams are doing enough research on the quality of baseball bats their players are using? Presumably, out of the ~390 position players on opening day rosters, someone is going to be using the 390th best bat and putting themselves (and therefore their team) at a disadvantage. I know what makes a bat “good” is multifaceted but it seems likely to me that there are cases where guys are hitting warning track flyouts that maybe would’ve been wall scrapers had they used a different bat

Dan Szymborski: That’s a tough one as I don’t really know what teams are doing in this light

Dan Szymborski: I mean, I’m friendly with front offices, even ones you think I might not be, and I’m not really a *reporter* but even then, theres’ only so much direct info that will come my way

Surplus Valuez = Stolen Wages: Is it just me or are players getting older? This draft seems older

Dan Szymborski: Seems to make sense, I appear to be growing a year older every 300 some days!

Oaktown Blues: I can definitely hear the NY influence in how you say “Aaron”

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to ehad out for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!