Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/16/23

Dan Szymborski: It is time. A time for chats.

Nick: Jeff Zimmerman raised some concerns about Jordan Walker’s swing and miss. What’s your level of concern about it? K rates in the minor leagues seem fine but I’m trying to figure out what we should realistically expect from him.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super concerned, his strikeout rates aren’t really a problem in the minors, and for a prospect, I think passivity is even more dangerous than aggressiveness

Dan Szymborski: It’s an argument I had with people who were angry that Kris Bryant got like a three WAR projection his rookie season

Dan Szymborski: It was all “but minor league strikeout rate”

Dan Szymborski: But when a guy has a 1.000 OPS or something, they’re *incentivized* to be aggressive.

Guest: Andrew Vaughn has a high ceiling per ZIPS.  How do you feel about his potential this year?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve always been a bit concerned with how the Sox developed him

Dan Szymborski: If you’re going to promote a 1B to the majors whose professional career was 6 homers in A-ball, then how do you not use them at all in the intervening season?

Dan Szymborski: And then this guy who has yet to hit for power against minor league pitchers not only has to succeed in the majors suddenly has to learn a new position. It’s not like Vaughn was some maestro of defense that they wanted to just see him somewhere harder

Dan Szymborski: This was a case of bending the player to fit the plan instead of the plan to the player. I’m just glad that Vaughn did so well despite the incredibly odd way the White Sox developed him

Justin: Hi Dan. I’m bewildered by Max Kepler’s career Babip. Do you think it all has to do with the shift and his average will go up this year, or are there other factors as well?

Dan Szymborski: I think average will trend up, but it’s not going to be a game-changer in many individual players

Dan Szymborski: I talked about this in the Joey Gallo section of the busts piece

Dan Szymborski: In Kepler’s case, he doesn’t hit particularly hard and isn’t particularly fast and isn’t much of a line-drive hitter, and that doesn’t lead to very good BABIPs

Bryan: Zero to three players hurt during this chat?  Why have you kidnapped three players and threatened them with violence?  Are they tied up in your basement or something, with an AI-controlled Rube Goldberg device dangling heavy weights over their elbows?

Dan Szymborski: Gotta leave a margin of error

laxtotnto: Now since you are an international sensation, how has your newfound celebrity status changed your life?

Dan Szymborski: When did the first part of this sentence happen?

Eric: Who do you feel more confident in becoming a major contributor faster – ZIPs agnostic – Tovar or Grissom?

Dan Szymborski: Grissom easily.

Dan Szymborski: Not because Tovar.

Dan Szymborski: But because Tovar being a major contributor faster involves Colorado Rockies decision-making

Duane the bathtub, I’m drowning!: Besides the statistics in how he ended last year my gut tells me that MacKenzie Gore returns to pre-injury form from last year’s elbow issue.  What do you think?

Dan Szymborski: I’m hopeful, but not unrealistic

laxtotnto: What is the weirdest result Zips has given you lately? What extreme outlier has it put out that made you stop and go wtf?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS loves Dean Kremer

Chuck: How much Edwin Diaz Knees can Edwin Diaz Knees Knee if Edwin Diaz kneads his knee?

Dan Szymborski: sadness. 🙁

Dan Szymborski: Not sure how to answer that, so I outsourced it.

Dan Szymborski: As an AI language model, I’m not quite sure what you mean by “Edwin Diaz Knees”. However, assuming you meant “how much pressure can Edwin Diaz’s knees exert on his own knee if he applies force”, the answer would depend on various factors such as Edwin Diaz’s body weight, muscle strength, and the angle and direction of the force applied. Without specific information about these factors, it is difficult to provide a precise answer.

laxtotnto: What was your favorite childhood cartoon?

Dan Szymborski: Original TMNT cartoon

Royals fan: Is spring training predictive of anything? (Asking for a friend.)

Dan Szymborski: Mildly, at least on the player level

jmcgee: Realistically, what is the most excitement I should allow myself to feel re: Jarred Kelenic?

Dan Szymborski: Mild-plus

Leao’s: For example. I feel Texas is going to underperform the projections mainly because of their bullpen. If you are trying to save DeGrom’s arm and get 5 great innings from him, you still need to other 4 innings which are likely to be mediocre.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you kinda need to cover 4 innings a ton anyway!

Dazzy: explain the new prospect – Rookie of the year voting – service time thing to me like I’m 5 years old.

Dan Szymborski: If the guy finishes first or second, they get credit for a full year of service time no matter how much service time they actually accrued during that year

Stu: Texas toast, avocado toast, peanut butter toast, no toast at all?

Dan Szymborski: Texas toast definitely

Dan Szymborski: +garlic bread +french toast

Michael Scarn: I’m kind of on the fence about the WBC. It’s fun, I want to cheer for my country but… What in your opinion would make the WBC better?

Dan Szymborski: Every other year!

Dan Szymborski: I much enjoy the WBC

Cakes&Kakes: You should adopt 5 kittens from the same litter, so you could be the Melvin Mora of cat-dads.

Dan Szymborski: I already have four cats and nine cats would be excessive.

Dan Szymborski: I’d need to hire a full-time employee just to deal with the litter boxes

Lorenzo: With the Diaz injury, should the Mets sign Corey Knebel and maybe Zack Britton too?  Shouldn’t put all the pressure on Robertson and they can use backup options who have closer experience.

Dan Szymborski: I do think they shoudl scour for what’s left and try to catch lightning in a bottle

Dan the Man Mcgraw: Who was a prospect Zips picked up on and hit that traditional scouts missed on? Jose Rameriz?

Dan Szymborski: Mookie Betts

Dan Szymborski: He was like 26th when others were barely even including him on lists at all

Dan Szymborski: in ZiPS

Tacoby Bellsbury: What would be the hit to Edwin Diaz’s long-term ZiPS if he were to miss the whole season with a leg injury? (Assuming the worst here.)

Dan Szymborski: OK, let me run it with 162/leg

Guest: Dan!!! Be punctual!

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, there were shenanigans I was involved in.

Dan Szymborski:

dave: in the spirit of march madness starting today, have you ever had any interactions with kenpom or are familiar with his system?

Dan Szymborski: My paths have not crossed with his

Dan Szymborski: and college hoops is out of my area of expertise

Phil: ZIPS aside, what is your personal feeling about Chris Sale? I feel like a lot of folks around baseball and on the internet have given up on him, but he still has weirdly long arms and a good slider grip and it’s not his fault he fell off a bike. Do you think he can be a good pitcher, with the understanding that that includes actually pitching, for the remainder of his contract?

Dan Szymborski: I really WANT him to be Sale again, but I’m skeptical

Dan Szymborski: you don’t see many pitchers who miss most of the time for a lot of years with injury suddenly become tanks

Dan Szymborski: But here, enjoy happier times.

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: Is it better to start a prospect in High A and have them glide through and push up to AA or to just start them in AA and let them struggle?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the prospect.

Dan Szymborski: I generally wouldn’t start players that high.

Dan Szymborski: But I would promote aggressively. Generally speaking, I’d want the most talented prospects in my org to be *challenged*

Dan Szymborski: Nobody should spend a year at a level with a 1.000 OPS

Jason N: Everybody knows that good chicken chili starts with the best part – the neck.  And then you add secret hobo spices.

Don Von Handburger: Did you ever try to give yourself the nickname “The Sizzler” but it just wouldn’t take?

Dan Szymborski: I did not

Dan the Man Mcgraw: the only ROY/runner up without a long term contract was Rutchman.  How important is it to have a long term deal in place if there is a high possibility they get a year closer to FA

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s pretty important for teams.

Dan Szymborski: Once a player hits arbitration, a team’s leverage disappears quickly

Dan Szymborski: Teams get players at a discount when players have reasons to be more risk-averse than the team

Dan Szymborski: But when you’re tlaking a guy with four years of service time, there’s a lot less risk for the team

San Dyzmborskeye: Is Daniel Espino still considered a SP prospect or would you think given his fragility, he’s more destined for a relief job?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure starting is dead at this point. We’ll see.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Last year you thought Yusei kikuchi was a Breakout candidate. This year you think Yusei Kikuchi is……?

Dan Szymborski: NOT GOING TO BE ON MY LIST

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Do you ever dress your cats up? I think I wanna get a cat kimono.

Dan Szymborski: I got a steelers jersey for my sister’s cat and took pictures of the cat and sent it to her when I was feeding her cat while she was in Denver

Dan Szymborski: Which angered her (she’s a Ravens fan)

Jay: Matt Chapman – 60 HR with the new Toronto fences?

Dan Szymborski: I would…uh…take the under

Bryan: What’s your take on SVB failure and depositor make-whole promise from the fed govt?

Dan Szymborski: Oh god, I accidentally hit post on the politics-related Q!

Dan Szymborski: Ideologically, I am against bailouts — and I do consider it a bailout. But I think my bigger complaint, because I never get what I want ideologically, is that it encourages a situation in which there’s much increased uncertainty about which depositors will be made whole in bank failures.

Dan Szymborski: If you want to bail out everyone, then bail out everyone and write appropriate legislation to make that a thing

Dan Szymborski: But don’t bail out *some* parties *some* of the time based on foggy, arbitrary criteria

Dan Szymborski: And now I’ll be more careful not to click on this genre of question!

Dan Szymborski: I think where you have government, it should be *good government* run well that does things competently.

TomBruno23: You run the Cardinals, what do you with Jordan Walker at the end of Spring Training?

Dan Szymborski: AAA but he’s up as soon as he’s crushing pitchers

laxtonto: Do you ever consider doing academic publishing in Sports Analytics journals?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really much of an academic writer

Oaktown Blues: ZiPS sees a Ramon Laureano bounceback in the cards, with a projected 114 wRC+. Do you agree or do you think he’s washed?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s toast

laxtonto: What is your favorite ballpark to go to as a fan vs a member of the press?

Dan Szymborski: Camden of course is my favorite.

Dan Szymborski: I enjoy PNC Park as a fan but HATE it as a press member

Dan Szymborski: The press box is so high there that you need a sherpa and supplementary oxygen

Don Von Handburger: Do you think “Seager Beaver” would be a good name for my Roto team?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Framberman: For starting pitchers who throw primarily only 2 pitches (other offerings less than 5%), are there comps to Strider other than DeGrom and Lamet?

Dan Szymborski: It depends how strict you want comps for the types of pitches.

Dan Szymborski: There’s Gausman too

Dan Szymborski: Now, Gausman has tried to throw other stuff, but besides the fastball and the splitter, everyone just cycles in and out

David: Does ZIPS incorporate any changes to output metrics (i.e. spin rate, pitch movement, exit Velo etc) into projections?

Dan Szymborski: YuP!

Inaccessible Rail: Should the Mets extend Baty & Alvarez now?

Dan Szymborski: I think generally speaking, you should always be in the business of trying to lock up your top prospects to long deals

James: The 3 year ZiPS projections never seem to accommodate much room for future growth. I’m trying to decide between Rutschman and Pasquantino in my keeper league, and their 2024 & 2025 projections seem just about the same as their 2023 projections. Is that beyond the scope of the model or am I just an idiot? (Maybe both?)

Dan Szymborski: It’s because these are mean projections – you can see lots of differences in the percentile projections!

Dan Szymborski: But people vastly overrate the odds of a very good young player improving

Dan Szymborski: Trout’

He Love This Pfaadt Butt: ZiPS is really high on Brandon Pfaadt. This rocks.

Dan the Man Mcgraw: got a bet with a friend – over/under 275 innings between Verlander/Schezer and more WAR – Gaussman/Manoah vs Cole/Rodon.  Who you got?

Dan Szymborski: Over and Gausman/Manoah

Dan Szymborski: I mean, Rodon is injured righ tnow

JC: Jazz Chisholm being on the cover of MLB The Show is such an odd choice. He’s young and exciting but he has never had a successful, full MLB season

Dan Szymborski: It’s a cover, not a seasonal award!

Guest: Last year, Jo Adell was one of your breakout candidate picks. This year, he is not. Do you think his ship has sailed, or he still has some development left in the tank?

Dan Szymborski: I think the ship has sailed, the crew got scurvy, and the boat went over the side into oblivion after getting through the straits of kyrie

Pedro: Thoughts about whether Adolis Garcia will keep up his production this year?  His strike out and walk rates are a bit concerning.  Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical long-term on Garcia given his approach and age, but I think he’ll be fine in the short-term

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually surprised how much more positive ZiPS was with Garcia than the other systems

Peter: Jordan Montgomery, Pablo Lopez, Luis Garcia, Jeffrey Springs. Chris Bassitt. Preference for #4 starter?

Dan Szymborski: Montgomery

Dan Szymborski: (And while I appreciate the politics related questions, I only answered one by accident. I’m not going to tell any other writer how to behave, but for me, I like being one of the people you can count on *not* to get into politics. I do baseball and my other nerdy interests and that’s it.)

Pedro: Could AI come to the area of baseball analytics?  Very large quantities of data that need to be processed, algorithm is unbiased & can pick up tendencies that humans might ignore or miss

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s not really *that* different from what is now, just more supervised

Fred: Does this injury take some of the spice out of Painter? Or would ZIPs have assumed something like this is bound to happen with every young starter  – at some point?

Dan Szymborski: There’s some risk already built into the projections

Dan Szymborski: OH CRAP, EDWIN DIAZ THATS WHY I HAD IT OPEN

Did Chewbacca use TP?: Do spring training/WBC stats impact ZIPS projections in any way? Are AFL stats incorporated?

Dan Szymborski: No. I haven’t found AFL stats helpful enough and I’m not sure the slight gain in accuracy is worth the confusion of having multiple sets of ZiPS projections floating around

Guest: What is the hit rate for teams on early extensions (less than one year of MLB)?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they’re binary

Dan Szymborski: There are sometimes misses, but the dollar figures for players like SIngleton are quite low

Nate: Hi Dan — When you rank prospects for the ZiPS 100, is it based on career WAR or some number of first years in the player’s career? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I noted this in the piece! I switched from just the career WAR to the interquartile mean

hscer: how much of the design of ZiPS (or any projection system) is science vs art?

Dan Szymborski: It’s still mostly science, but there’s a certain art to it

Dan Szymborski: Like what to prioritize, what you’re looking for

Dan Szymborski: All the great dimensionality reduction tools out there, they give you the data to work with, but you still have to *choose* what’s in your model and how

laxtonto: Dungeons and Dragons or Cyberpunk?

Dan Szymborski: D&D

Dan Szymborski: I’m not into future stuff as much

Dan Szymborski: and both are way above zombie-related things which I can never get into

Kyle: Q: Why did no one find any Easter eggs from the bunny this year? A: It had great Location+.

Dan: Are pitchers worse to start the year if their starting catcher missed spring training?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never looked at this honestly, so I don’t know

Nate: Thanks! I’m googling “interquartile mean.” 🙂

Dan Szymborski:

Edwin Diaz: Dungeons and Dragons or Dungeness Crabs (and still Dragons)

Dan Szymborski: D&D

Dan Szymborski: BLUE CRABS RULE

Guest: Re: Ben’s article on options. Wouldn’t the variance on Corbin Carroll’s 2030 season be larger than say Vlad Jr’s because there’s more uncertainty around Carroll’s true talent? What does ZIPS say is the standard deviation for Carroll’s performance for 2030?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ remember the reference

Dan Szymborski: but that far in the future EVERYONE has huge variance

Dan Szymborski: there’s a lot of uncertainty in time

Lorenzo: ZIPS thinks Bellinger will bounce back to being around league average.  Do you agree or do you think he’ll be above or below?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s about right since he does have defensive value

Dan Szymborski: Among things said about Bellinger when he was a 1B prospect, “in eight years, he’ll be a marginal major leaguer but his glove in center will keep him on rosters,” is not something I’d expect to see

MilwaukeeBeerJays: What was your favorite best picture nominee this year?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I haven’t enough movies to give a fair assessment

laxtonto: IQR…  grrr

J: As someone who works in AI (thought I would call it machine learning), I think people have a misunderstanding of what AI is. AI is already in baseball. You don’t need a generative NLP model to call it AI.

Dan Szymborski: Year W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR   2024 4 2 18 2.56 39 0 38.7 25 11 3 16 60 152 0.9   2025 5 2 21 2.76 47 0 45.7 30 14 4 19 69 141 0.9   2026 5 2 21 2.94 50 0 49.0 33 16 4 21 73 132 0.9   2027 5 3 21 3.10 52 0 49.3 34 17 4 23 71 125 0.8

Dan Szymborski: oh god