Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/7/24

Dan Szymborski: Ojn time!

Dan Szymborski: On time!

the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing as last Thursday was an eating day

Dan Szymborski: Well, I had a pickle, but that doesn’t count because pickles are like 5 calories

GoBirds: In his prospects chat Eric referred to you as Danny.  Are you a Danny?  Should we call you Danny?  Do we need to establish greater social connection first?  Bring you chili or a cat?  Danny Z sounds like you could be cool, maybe a DJ or something.

Dan Szymborski: Danny ZiPS is an occasional nickname

Dan Szymborski: There are only three living people who generally call me Danny in conversation. My mom, my sister, and my 99-year-old godfather

Hopeful Sox Fan: Morosi reports the Red Sox are “close” to announcing a longterm extension for Brayan Bello. What would ZiPS say is a fair deal?

Dan Szymborski: You’ll have to wait for Jay’s piece! 🙂

Theo Epstein: What are you thinking for the Brayan Bello extension? Also curious what a Casas extension could look like. Feels like the Red Sox need these guys locked up.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll run Casas at least

Guest: With Yoshida looking like he’ll be primarily a DH, is that contract currently underwater for the Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that. If he’s actually a -11 defender per 1350 innings, then he’s more valuable as a DH

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at right around two wins and that gets you money

Billy The Marlin: If Jazz stays healthy and Anderson bounces back and I know it’s a big if. Why can’t we be competitive with the elite pitching we have?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, even with these things, it’s a lousy offense

GoBirds: Kyle Stowers the forgotten prospect in Baltimore.  Does he ever get a chance or only after getting dealt for a reliever in July?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll hit the journeyman route sooner or later

Dan Szymborski: He’s just not likely to hit enough to be anything more than a role player or a stopgap starter

Dan Szymborski: and the O’s are deep at his positions

JDV2NPB: is there a non-zero chance Votto would go to Japan if he doesn’t get any MLB offers?

Dan Szymborski: Would he go at his age just to have one last go? I don’t know his feelings about this specifically

Key Flaw: The university I work at always has chicken finger Thursday, and in some ways I get sick of it every week But today I am so hungry that I’ve been actually looking forward to it all day. Is this a bad sign for me?

Dan Szymborski: How does the uni mess up chicken fingers?

Idiotic Failson: Any spring training performances sticking out to you so far? Somewhat related – is it too early to dismiss Giancarlo Stanton’s ‘noticeably slimmer’ debut as anything but window dressing on what’s starting to seem like a continued precipitous decline?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I try to not get excited about spring results no matter what. Too many disappointments

The guy who doesnt like the Whats for lunch guy: I dont like the what’s for lunch guy.

Dan Szymborski: Takt THAT whats for lunch guy!

Key Flaw: Boog’s vs. pit beef from the side of a random road in Maryland. You can only pick one.

Dan Szymborski: Of course you always choose for the most disreputable looking pit beef place

Dan Szymborski: that’s how it works

Jed: Can you name 1 player who sees to enjoy being an MLB player less than Anthony Rendon?

Dan Szymborski: Adam Dunn

Dan Szymborski: and definitely Jeff King!

Kyle: Please provide a “2024 State of ZiPS” address to the people here

Dan Szymborski: Uhh, I’m not sure what to say?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve already written a ton about him!

Darin: Who do you like better in fantasy this year Christopher Sanchez or Kutter Crawford?

Dan Szymborski: Sanchez

Matt: Which GM is on the hottest seat right now? How many GMs will be freed up to enjoy other employment opportunities this season?

Dan Szymborski: Preller, I think. I can’t imagine he outlasts ANOTHER manager

PirateFan: Who would you rather play everyday,  Triolo or Peguero

Dan Szymborski: Triolo’s better, but Peguero could mean more ot the team long term, so you’d have to go with the latter unless they’re in surprise contention

Idiotic Failson: Will Steve Garvey (assuming he wins) have the highest career WAR of anyone ever elected to US state or federal office?

Dan Szymborski: No, Bunning

Dan Szymborski: Garvey would be second, I believe

Dan Szymborski: then I think Vinegar Bend Mizell?

Dan Szymborski: Walter Johnson would have been top but he lost his congressional election

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure about state offices, honestly

Tyler Duffy: Melanoma is no joke.  Get those new freckles checked!

Dan Szymborski: It can be very serious!

Kevin: What are the biggest few things you understand about baseball that you did not understand 5 or 10 years ago?

Dan Szymborski: Pitch framing. Tunneling. How good bunts are if there’s a decent chance you can get a hit

Guest: Why is ZiPS so much lower on Mike Trout than everyone else?

Dan Szymborski: A little confused by the question: ZiPS with DC playing time has him with the *better* WAR than Steamer.

Dan Szymborski: and the reason straight-up ZiPS has him lower is obvious: it projects 89 games instead of the depth chart 146

Dan Szymborski: Given how he hasn’t started that many games since 2016, I’m on ZiPS for this one

Dan Szymborski: On Casas, ZiPS would suggest $64 million if you bought out two years of FA for Casas.

Dave Shutton: Who are you? Where are you going?

Dan Szymborski: Do your own homework Shutton

Guest: With all the new stats you guys seem to be adding, are there any plans to add ZIPS percentile projections to player pages?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not this year, but we ought to have the splits ready soon

Champdo: Of Reese Olson, Matt Manning, Gibson-long, and Jobe who do you think has the best career?

Dan Szymborski: Manning’s probably the safest, but Jobe has a better chance of hitting the high WAR numbers than him

Krusty: Totally hypothetical question: let’s say a club decided to select and develop its starting pitchers for endurance and durability — they want to create a new crop of Workhorses.

A series of interrelated questions: do you think it *could* be done in the modern game? Would it just be the old process of picking Big Strong Guys and then seeing which arms survive getting slagged? Would it work? Would any of those pitchers be any good?

Dan Szymborski: I think you can, but it would be a lot like the old days

Dan Szymborski: And I dont’ think it’s beneficial

Dan Szymborski: Especially with FA

Dan Szymborski: you don’t want to break the five guys whose arms can throw 150 innings comfortable to find the one dude who can throw 250 innings a year

Dan Szymborski: and then that dude signs with the Yankees in three years for $350 million.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t think teams have figured out at all who can throw a ton of innings without going splat eventually

GoBirds: Everyone always asks about when ZiPS correctly predicts a breakout, but what about when ZiPS predicts someone going off a cliff?  Got any examples?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to crunch some numbers, but I don’t quote those as often because they make me far sadder

Dan Szymborski: like ZiPS projected Miguel Cabrera to age terribly, but it doesn’t make me happy

Idiotic Failson: Re: disreputable looking pit beef places – this is also the best way to choose a burrito place in Southern California. If it looks like the restaurant from Goonies, it’s probably the best food you’ve ever had.

Steve O: Should the Red Sox wait on a Casas extension? I mean bad body 1B who are bad at defense aren’t exactly a hot commodity and they’re going to have him through his age 28 season anyways. He’s going to have to have like a 140-150 wRC+ to be more than a 2 win guy since he gives you nothing on defense or baserunning.

Dan Szymborski: Waiting isn’t necessary if the price reflects the risk

romorr: The Athletic put out an extension prediction for Adley at, 8 years, $156 million. Have to think if that was on the table, the Orioles would love that. Just feels light to me.

Dan Szymborski: It’s probably on the light side, but not quite as much as one may think; catchers are weird and can break down physically surprisingly early

Syndey Opera House: What did I do to tick off John Fisher? Come on, man, that thing looks nothing like me. And as a baseball facility, well a green ceiling twelve feet above the field is just not serious. This is a lame Metrodome tribute, not an homage to a true celebration of music.

Dan Szymborski: You probably lived a happy life

Dan Szymborski:

Je Suis La Pomme: With the departure of Jung Hoo Lee, which three current KBO players would project to have the highest career WAR in the MLB?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really have that available as I don’t project them all

Witt: KC Royals will make playoffs again in ____?

Dan Szymborski: spite of their determination not to

J: unnecessary text formatting

I forgot to put a name last time: Maybe that’s the question… what’s the DC playing time thing?

Dan Szymborski: it’s the depth chart playing time

Dan Szymborski: which is on the depth charts!

olethros: Dan, has anyone at FG considered revisiting this topic?  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fames-standard-and-its-biggest…

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure Jay has written related things. And if he hasn’t, you can always bug him about it (nicely) as long as you don’t rat me out!

Matt: About how many games do you go to a year?

Dan Szymborski: I normally go 40, but I’ve gone to fewer last couple of years due to a couple back procedures

Dan Szymborski: I have sciatica with like three contributing reasons

Kevin: You mention pitch framing as something you better understand now than in the past. Some years ago Catcher ERA was a thing but was dismissed as meaningless by many. Do you think there might have been something to Catcher ERA tied to what we now understand as pitch framing?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but it was too noisy a stat to really get anything out of

Tacoby Bellsbury: How big a loss, ZiPSically speaking, is Lucas Giolito to the Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski: Significant. Even if one didn’t like him, he had at least SOME upside

Alex: Can you help me feel optimistic as a Padres fan?

Dan Szymborski: You probably won’t have a worse presidential election in the rest of your life after this year

Talfred: Does ZiPS include park factors? If so, does it use them by handedness, or just the overall park factor?

Dan Szymborski: Naturally, and it depends

Dan Szymborski: (For projecting the stats, yes, but not necessarily WAR since everyone plays in the same park)

Dan Szymborski: and that’s the handedness part

you’re not dreaming: I know low sample defensive metrics are like reading tea leaves, but ZiPS seems oddly pessimistic on Evan Carter’s defense given that he’s gotten great scouting reports there and has been good so far in the majors. Any thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: The total zone-esque method I use with ball coordinates in the minors is decidedly meh on him

Nick: Hey Dan, looking to understand the 56 wRC+ projection for Austin Hedges this season.  56 is obviously terrible, but it’s also higher than anything Hedges has done since 2018, including last year, when he posted a 24 wRC+ in 200ish PAs. Do projection systems just have a weird time handling players at the extremes like this (ie, he can’t really be THIS bad), or you think it’s reasonable to expect he’ll be better than he has been in recent seasons this year?

Dan Szymborski: Based on history, that’s kinda how it works though. It’s the opposite of a star distro chart; it’s all upside

Dan Szymborski: Because he’s reading about the limits of how lousy a hitter can be

Dan Szymborski: Without, say, dragooning a FanGraphs employee into your lineup

Steve O: Who’s playing 3B and CF for the Yankees at the end of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine two different guys

J: Rutschman is going to hit 30 before his first free agent year. For a catcher, I cannot imagine him being offered much more than that in an extension. There is just too much risk in him being moved to 1B at that point, where his career hitting marks make him more an average regular than a star.

Tyler: Do you know of any research that’s been done on whether plate discipline is something that can be developed? I feel like I’ve seen conflicting opinions on this without much data being presented. I could be wrong though.

Dan Szymborski: I think so to a degree, though there’s a lot of mixed results

GoBirds: Does ZiPS find player height to be a useful predictor for anything?

Dan Szymborski: It has not

GoBirds: I’m guessing Jorge Mateo isn’t a good plan in CF.  Does that mean Cowser has to make the team so they have a backup for Mullins?

Dan Szymborski: I think it depends on Mullins hammy

Dan Szymborski: Ryan McKenna’s been lousy, but if Mullins looks healthy, he MIGHT make the team so that Cowser or Hjerstad or something isn’t sitting on the bench

Dan Szymborski: Kjerstad

Dan Szymborski: if he’s not doing well, then you bring up the young guys and definitely bid farewell to mckenna

Dan Szymborski: Now Kjerstad wouldn’t be playing center HIMSEFL probably

Dan Szymborski: patchwork fix of that type would likely involve moving Hays over, I think

Dan Szymborski: (But it’s more likely to be Cowser anyway)

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Don’t you hate pants?

Dan Szymborski: I do!

Dan Szymborski: I mostly wear gym shorts around the house and I prefer shorts generally speaking until you get down to like 55 degrees

glt4dc: How good would a team have to be to have a 50.1% preseason odds (better than the field) of winning the World Series?  The Braves have a 24.5% shot, so who would they have to add to the current roster to improve their chances?

Dan Szymborski: IIRC, I’ve done this before and I had a true talent 130 win team

Kyle: If you were in an empty room for 24 hours with just a stack of papers and some pens, how many baseball players could you name?

Dan Szymborski: Oh dear god, a ton

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how many, but I’d probably not be out by the time I was done writing

Dan Szymborski: But fewer than 20 years ago

Dan Szymborski: My memory just isn’t quite as encyclopedic at 45 as it was at 25

Dan Szymborski: It’s still pretty good, but I lose names a lot more now

Dan Szymborski: and I call players by the first name of their father/cousin or another player with the same name too often

Dan Szymborski: It took me a few years to stop referring to Cody Bellinger as Clay after he debuted

Dan Szymborski: and I’ve called both Austin and Andrew Romine Kevin occasionally

Dan Szymborski: It’s sad, but it’s the natural aging process

gbs42: Everything else being equal, would triple slash lines of .250/.350/.450 and .300/.350/.450 have the same wRC+ ?

Dan Szymborski: MAYBE

Dan Szymborski: it really depends on the mix

Dan Szymborski: though note for people who don’t do a lot in this

Dan Szymborski: that the difference isn’t just walks instead of hits; the first guy has more power than the second guy

GoBirds: a) Ryan O’Hearn is good now, Statcast backs up the results
b) Haha no that was obviously a fluke, there’s no way he maintains that contact and quality of contact
c) It doesn’t matter, Kjerstad is better anyway

KC Pain: Would you rather have Bieber or Hunter Brown the next 3 seasons?

Dan Szymborski: Bieber (and assuming we’re not talking money, signing in FA or whatever)

Eric: Saw that the betting markets have the A’s at o/u 57 wins. Do you know what percentile projection they would have to sink to to actually hit that under?

Dan Szymborski: In ZiPS, it was their 30th percentile projection

Dan Szymborski: pre-spring

TomBruno23: Going down to Meatball Ron’s state once again to spend a week in Miramar Beach with the family for Spring Break. Looking to take in NJCAA #16 Northwest Florida State v #5 Pensacola State on March 18th. Any draft prospects you want me to keep an eye out for in my scouting notebook 🙂

Dan Szymborski: That’s more of an Eric Q!

Dan Szymborski: I basically don’t even think about the MLB draft until like two weeks before the draft

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a dratnik

Dan Szymborski: draftnik

Tom: Have your cats ever caught any mice?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. I’ve had three mouse sightings in 17 years at this house and all three times, the mouse was dead by cat within 24 hours

Dan Szymborski: Galileo, Mercutio, and Justinian all tied at one kill

Dan Szymborski: a chipmunk once got in, but I caught the chipmunk in a box before the cats got it

Insert Witty Name Here: A political reference in your chat? You feeling okay?

Dan Szymborski: Ah, but it was a political reference when I didn’t say who I liked over who!

Greg: Oh Danny ZiPS, the out-li-ers are calling…

Grading youths: Who ends with the better WAR: Frelick or Colt Keith?

Dan Szymborski: I think Keith

Steven: Just like last year, FG projected batter WAR is 690 (22 per team) and pitcher WAR is 458 (15 per team) when (perhaps definitionally?) batter WAR was 570 to 430. Why is this? Is it a DC thing? Does ZIPs have this same gap.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had that issue with the ZiPS WAR projections

Seltz: why do you think the GOATED instrument, the harpsichord, fell out of favor after the Baroque era?

Dan Szymborski: dynamic range

Dan Szymborski: Before the harpsichord and clavichord died out, pianos were in development for decades

Dan Szymborski: harpsichords only really coudl get so loud

Dan Szymborski: while I generally like historical instruments in baroque works

Dan Szymborski: I do prefer pianos to harpsichords

Nick: Cat status report?

Dan Szymborski: All asleep at last check

Sammy So-so: You mentioned in the NYY projections that they had long-term problems to face in the near future. Could you briefly expand on this?

Dan Szymborski: it’s a pretty aging core relying on very few players and the one guy who isn’t old isn’t signed

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Hey Danny, let’s cut the playoff teams back to 4 or fewer. Then we see series between the best teams, and no Dbacks-Rangers World Series.

Dan Szymborski: Nobody has had the wisdom/stupidity to appoint me MLB Dictator

Dan Szymborski: and if I had a mercenary army, pressing the dubious Szymborski claim to the UK throne is more amusing

big auction on Saturday: Anyone’s projections change dramatically since the last update? How often are these various projections systems updated here on fan graphs?

Dan Szymborski: They don’t usually change much until the season starts

Dan Szymborski: There’s a *small* gain from including spring training stats, but I’m not sure the small gain is worth everyone suddenly having new projections

Farhandrew Zaidman: Bello extension is 6/55

Reds Enjoyer: Which of the Diaz closer brothers has the better year this year?

Dan Szymborski: “mercy for the diaz brothers”

Dan Szymborski: Edwin’s gotta be the fave even coming off serious injury

Dan Szymborski: since he’s just so good if he’s OK

Guest: Hi Dan! Any advice for a 30 year old Mexican Psychiatrist who wants to commit his free time self learning sabermetrics and dreams about retiring in 20 years and use this developed skills (by then hopefully) to work in anything baseball related?

Dan Szymborski: Coding for sure!

Dan Szymborski: Know your python, R, etc.

KC Pain: Why do some projections/analysis fall off so quickly?  A guy has great power, then the next he has meh.  I understand eval is hard, but Soderstorm for example had his hit tool as his calling card and now he doesnt.  There was some….I think Heriberto Hernandez ??? Astros C prospect who had great power they said and then everyone said nawww a year later it felt like.  I guess it is odd whether rightly or wrongly how either a player doesnt get a pass for a down year or just how quickly their calling card was completely wrong and tossed out.

Dan Szymborski: For the same reason a hurricane’s path can change significantly

Dan Szymborski: from a little shift

Dan Szymborski: You only have so many years were improvement is likely

Dylan Stein: If Catfish Hunter were to play in todays MLB would he win multiple Cy Youngs

Dan Szymborski: Maybe, though he’d have a harder time making the Hall with today’s voters

Hyperthetical: Other than weight, are you tracking BP, HR, or any other markers since you began fasting?

Dan Szymborski: No, I’m just focused on losing weight

Big Cubs fan: Hey Dan, need your advice. I got a Wrigley Field puzzle for Christmas in 2020, but have refused to start it as the Cubs traded away Yu Darvish less than a week later. Should I get over my issues with Tom Ricketts and just do the damn puzzle?

Dan Szymborski: do the damn puzzle

Dan Szymborski: I mean, if you complete the puzzle, you don’t owe Ricketts money or something, do you?

Guest: How does zips determine defensive profile when a player plays multiple positions?  Do they look at only one position or split them up?

Dan Szymborski: I project them at the position they’ve played the most in recent years

Dan Szymborski: (generally)

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s easier for someone to look at a projection and see “SS” then some unknown blend of different positions

BEEDLE DEE: do the puzzle while looking at Owen Caissie’s statcast page

Guest: ATC has that set of measurements to tell us which players have the biggest differences between projections from whatever different systems he uses to create the ATC numbers, but is there any way to see which players have the largest or smallest differences between- say – their 20th and 80th percentile projections for ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Subtraction ideally! Didn’t I do a piece on this or give someone data for one?

Dan Szymborski: maybe I’ll write about it before the start of the season

the guy who asks the breakfast question: What was for breakfast?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing!

Dan Szymborski: and in any case, I’ve only been up since 1030

Dan Szymborski: and on that note, it’s time for me to shuffle off for another week

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everyone!