Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/10/14

Dan Szymborski: Boom! (shacka lacka)

Comment From Guest
Do the Braves go after Santana or Samardzija if Medlen is down?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll definitely revisit the issue, depending on how serious Medlen’s injury turns out to be. Santana’s kind of a steep price though and given that the Braves have turned into a smaller-market team in their spending habits, still strikes me as unlikely

Comment From Co-founder of the USSMariner.com
boom

Comment From Gerrit Cohle
After all the great moments, which was more disappointing and anti-climactic – the True Detective finale or the Pirates’ off-season?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen the former.

Dan Szymborski: On the Pirates, it was a disappointing offseason (they really should have sent a QO Burnett’s way), but not a disaster – they have a solid farm system and this market wasn’t great at the stuff the Pirates needed.

Comment From quinceleather
Any feel for a few pitcher owwies this spring–hamels looks serious; fister I have no idea and balfour’s tired arm with the orioles walking away is a little scary. What do u think?

Dan Szymborski: I’m convinced all pitchers are injured to some extent.

Comment From Co-founder of the USSMariner.com
who gets Santana?

Dan Szymborski: I still think he ends up with Blue Jays.

Comment From Bryan
Curious as to your thoughts on three young outfielders that got some ABs last year and look to be starters this year… Arcia, Calhoun, K. Davis — will they all stick in the starting line up this year, and who has the best career?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll probably all stick given their teams. Arcia’s the most interesting, being much younger than the other 2, taht are essentially already in their primes

Dan Szymborski: Khris Davis is goign to get overrated as a result of his really good debut

Comment From Curious in Des Moines
Is this a ridiculous comp to make: Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stantonian are the same-ish player. And, given position, that mitigates the age difference (as Davis is 3 years older) – so from this point forward, until say Davis is 35 and Stanton 32 – davis is the best bet? Or is Stanton hiding things that we haven’t seen yet?

Dan Szymborski: I would not make that comp. Chris Davis’s season was enough to establish him as a likely good player rather than a likely OK one. It wasn’t enough to establish 2013 as his baseline.

Comment From Guest
Do you think MadBum will win a Cy Young before turning 27?

Dan Szymborski: He turns 27 sometime in 2016 season, I think, so that only gives hiim 2 Cy chances before his birthday. I’ll say no.

Dan Szymborski: He’s really good, but he also has 0 top 10 finishes in ERA+, 1 top 10 finish in IP, 0 in WAR, etc.

Dan Szymborski: (Just checked, 8/1/16)

Comment From JustAGuy
In a deep league where every SP is worth owning, who are some of your favorite guys who are still battling for a 5th spot in a rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Mejia!

Dan Szymborski: Before we continue, we have to start the poll for this week’s Electoral Brawllege fight. A throwdown of fisticuffs between Martin van Buren and James Madison

:

Comment From Guest
Will Anthony Rizzo hit over .260 this year?

Dan Szymborski: BA, I’d probably put him under. But better than last year.

Comment From Matt
If you had to clone on player to play all 9 positions on a team for a season, who would it be? Someone like Mauer who can pitch, catch, and hit, or someone like Trout, which would be an impossible lineup to pitch against?

Dan Szymborski: I think someone more like Trout..

Dan Szymborski: More position players have successfully converted to pitchers in recent history than other way.

Dan Szymborski: Though I may be tempted to use 2008 Rick Ankiel. Presumably if I can do this cloning, I have the ability to heal his arm problems too

Comment From GSon
Eight guys..five spots, four decided (Masterson / Kluber / McAllister / Salazar: Who is the odd man (men) out in the Indians rotation: Bauer/Tomlin/Carrasco?

Dan Szymborski: I think Bauer starts in the minors – they want to see him consolidate his gains.

Dan Szymborski: Carrasco’s out of options and the Indians seem to like him for some reason

Dan Szymborski: Write your comments here. Click ‘Post’ to publish.

Dan Szymborski: wha?

Comment From baltic fox
Do you think it’s crazy for the Orioles to offer Chris Davis silly money to key him in town? If they wait another year and he hits 40-42 bombs, their bargaining position will be weakened. Homers put people in the seats.

Dan Szymborski: Wins and perception of team quality put people in seats.

Dan Szymborski: There’s little evidence that particular players, outside a few notable situations (Valenzuela’s debuts, Ryan, Sosa v. McGwire chase) have much attendance value above and beyond play

Dan Szymborski: The O’s don’t have the budget to go after a risk that big.

Comment From im only one man
is game of thrones a 10 WAR show?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d call any TV show a 10 WAR show.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
I’m looking for musically themed fantasy team names. I already have Schoop John B. and Puig Puig Me but I need something Bowie.

Dan Szymborski: I once had a fantasy team Making Plans for Nigel Wilson

Comment From jocephus
what the heck are the cards going to do with diaz?

Dan Szymborski: Stash in minors, wait-and-see. It’s a creative organization.

Comment From Jonathan
I ask: Puig or Harper? Is it realistic to think they’ll be interchangeable for years to come? minus DUIs – their douche-level behavior is somewhat even, and even with a lack of trackable scouting, they seem to possess nearly identical toolsets.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll take Harper by a bit. We’re more “sure” about his abilities in MLB.

Comment From Ronald
Francisco Lindor ever become a profar-esque guy? 10-15 homers, 20 steals, great average?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure that much power. We’ll see.

Comment From Justin
Cards contract with Diaz appears to be 4 yrs 8 million per Derrick Goold. Worth the (surprisingly low) risk?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, 4 years 8 per year? That’s too high

Dan Szymborski: Oh, per Derrick Goold.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that makes sense. It’s worth it. When good options are cheap, there’s no reason not to accumulate talent and sort it out later

Dan Szymborski: Unlike, say, a team offering a 1-year contract and $14 million and losing a first-round draft pick for Ervin frigging Santana.

Dan Szymborski: (Hasn’t happened yet, but the Jays are trying their hardest)

Comment From Tony Danza
Do you see Kolten Wong getting the bulk of playing time at 2B this year, or will Ellis factor in more often than not?

Dan Szymborski: Wong gets first dibgs.

Comment From Malcom
Yasiel Puig: 30hr/100r/80rbi/15-20sb going to be his relative norm for next 8 or so years. True or false?

Dan Szymborski: Probably a little aggressive. 8 years is a long time

Comment From Guest
What do you think of the Matt Carpenter extension?

Dan Szymborski: Like. ZiPS has the break-even point for the Cards as under 3 wins (ZiPS projects 3.15 on avg next 6 from him)

Comment From Gila Monster
Do think we baby pitchers too much? If for example, a pitcher thew 150 pitches, wouldn’t their functional strength improve to the point where throwing 100 pitches isn’t a big deal? I mean if you do more reps at the gym, you build endurance, shouldn’t pitching be the same?

Dan Szymborski: No. Pitchers have always had hideous injury rates, no matter the age or the approach.

Dan Szymborski: Pitching exercises the ligaments is more similar to how high blood pressure exercises the heart.

Comment From A. Lane
Where is the #electoralbrawllege? Established corporations send their goons to crush bottom up innovation?

Dan Szymborski: I had trouble logging into CiL today, so I was behind in uploading the file

Comment From Chris
Cafardo from the Boston Globe said a package of Middlebrooks, Bradley Jr. Matt Barnes Mookie Betts and Christian Vazquez would be a good return for Stanton. I think that’s a crazy price to give up. What do you think?

Dan Szymborski: Too much.

Comment From Conrad
What is it about the hype of a “prospect” that often makes them so much more valuable (relatively) than an established player? is it people dreaming about the “ceiling” rather than the floor?

Dan Szymborski: People tend to be optimistic about players. By past the hype, prospects represent an inefficiency built into the CBA that teams can’t neutralize with cleverness: the 6 years of team control

Comment From GSon
The only Mejia worth discussing as a potential ML’er is an 18 year old catcher just making his way into full season A Ball in Lake County for the Indians..

Dan Szymborski: You don’t like Jenrry Mejia, who was excellent in his 5 starts and seems to be healhty?

Comment From Ryan
What does Zips think of Aledmys Diaz and his projected value over the next 4 years? Do you have a projection for him this season?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t even run a projection for him yet.

Comment From john
Kimbrel has the numbers and now the money. But isnt Jansen just as good? Why does nobody talk about him?

Dan Szymborski: No reliever’s just as good as Kimbrel. Now, long-term, that’s a different story.

Comment From The Wire
Who provides more value over the course of a season Flaherty or Schoop?

Dan Szymborski: Flaherty will have more fantasy value and will play more in the majors. I’m frankly more interest in schoop than in seeing if flaherty can pull a Tony Batista and have a lousy 25-homer season.

Comment From kevinthecomic
Madison was 5’4″, 100lbs?!?!?!?!? — no wonder he started the War of 1812 — compensating for something

Comment From baltic fox
Madison would win because he was a lot smarter…he’d hit van Buren in the Adam’s apple and the fight would be over. Very effective technique for me against bullies in junior high.

Comment From MSW
I just can’t even with the Mets this season. Ruben tejada looks worse than ever. They still don’t know how to manage and injury to Ike Davis. Terry Collins seems intent of keeping Lagares out of the lineup so Eric Young can bat leadoff poorly. Keeping Thor down on the farm so that Dice-BB can throw some meaningless innings. What is the deal with this team?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of Collins.

Comment From Guest
Important: Need to know reach advantage!

Dan Szymborski: I assume van Buren. I doubt Madison was a big-boned 100-pounder.

Comment From Seth
If Bryce Harper is the Arcade Fire – Yasiel Puig is, Vampire Weekend?

Dan Szymborski: Not unreasonable

Comment From Alan
Thoughts on the Matt Carpenter deal? It just seems kind of unnecessary to me, for a guy who is a bit old, and has likely already peaked.

Dan Szymborski: It’s peanuts these days.

Comment From Timmy
You’d want either Andrelton Simmons (a converted pitcher) or Zack Greinke (an athletic pitch who can hit) as your all-clone roster btw…

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Drew to Toronto still a possibility?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, more interesting. And a near-necessity if they’re already blown their first-rounder by signing Santana.

Comment From Guest
Ankiel had head problems. Healing the arm won’t solve that.

Dan Szymborski: The belief now is that his arm had been bothering him more at that point when he was letting on.

Comment From GSon
Carrasco has three pitches.. with a plus fastball. He’s still very young and should start in the pen, if not in the rotation..

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Comment From GK
Who takes the O’s last rotation spot… Norris, Gausman, other?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not Gausman – I think he starts year in minors.

Comment From Bryan
Who do you like better in a dynasty league, Jason Castro or Travis D’Arnaud? My assessment is that Castro has the higher floor, but D’Arnaud has the better ceiling with a lower chance of meeting it.

Dan Szymborski: That’s not an unreasonable assessment.

Comment From kevinthecomic
You surprised that the Royals reassigned Sugar Ray Marimon to minor league camp?

Dan Szymborski: I still got to project him, so I’m happy!

Comment From RSquared
Is Carp the odd man out with Sizemore looking good but limited and Victorino possibly limited with back issues? Sox may end up rotating Bradley, Sizemore and Vivtorino to keep the latter two on their feet through entire season..

Dan Szymborski: Very possibly. Carp is a good role player and could succeed in the right situation as a good platoon starter (Brewers) but he’s not so good that the Red Sox are going to greedily hang onto him

Comment From baltic fox
The Wire was a 10 WAR show.

Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Last week while drunk I followed a guy on Twitter because he looked exactly like you and I just remembered it now and holy crap does he look like you.

Dan Szymborski: Who?

Comment From Claus
Bowie name: Ground Control to Major Bomb

Dan Szymborski: Titus Andreltonicus?

Comment From KHitt
Did you know that Kim Jong Un won his dictator election with a 99% voter turnout rate?

Comment From The Buck Stops Here
Odds J Schoop opens the yr as the O’s starting 2B?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Dan Szymborski: 15%?

Comment From Eric
Have the 2014 ZiPS splits been released, and if so where may they be found? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: They have not. So nowhere.

Comment From Jay
Max Stassi has some pretty solid ZiPS projections. Any associated thoughts you can share on him?

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually cautiously optimistic about him. He hasn’t gotten a lot of hype since the draft simply because he’s always been injured

Comment From Perry
Where does Nick Franklin make the most sense? TOR? NYM? from the perspective of the team receiving…..not SEA.

Dan Szymborski: Toronto’s a good fit for Franklin, but Toronto’s prospects may not be a good fit for Seattle.

Comment From LudeBurger
Wrestling name: Dastard Dan or Zany Szymborski?

Dan Szymborski: Diamond Dan Dementov.

Comment From gareth
Ervins buddies on he jays want him pretty bad, huh?

Dan Szymborski: Seems to be the case.

Comment From CPT
O/U Rickey Romero starts? If he starts 20 do the Jays win 5 more games?

Dan Szymborski: Under.

Comment From Hobbs
Do you think the Mariner rotation is adequate right now (probably Felix-Iwakuma(Maurer)-Paxton-Baker-Erasmo Tai Walker and Iwakuma waiting in wings? If it is light, what options really exist for them. People are not valuing Nick Franklin like he’s top 30 prospect material.

Dan Szymborski: Santana was the best option for them.

Dan Szymborski: They should still be trying to land David Price.

Dan Szymborski: I do not think that rotation is adequate after 1-2.

Dan Szymborski: (and that’s assuming Iwakuma’s finger doesn’t prove to be a continual issue)

Comment From gareth
Even after losing Jimenez and kazmir, is there hope for the Indians pitching?

Dan Szymborski: I’m really meh on their pitching. They didn’t make that much of an effort to keep Jimenez and despite Masterson offering a very reasonable proposal, seem to be dithering there yet.

Comment From Kris
It’s 4 years b/w 15-20mm for Aledmys, not 8

Dan Szymborski: Is it? Goold is the most recent report, though admittedly I’ve been talking with you guys for the last hour

Comment From MSW
I would like Mejia a lot more if I didn’t know that Terry Collins was determined to getting Matsuzaka the 5th starter job over him.

Comment From Bryan
Your refusal to give any TV show 10 WAR vastly overestimates the value of a replacement-level show. Say 300 channels x 168 programming hours a week, the last rostered show is pretty rotten! The spread between Sopranos and 2:00 AM Lifetime dreck is much greater than between Trout and anyone that can hold a MLB roster position.

Dan Szymborski: But without Sopranos, HBO wouldn’t be replaying 2:00 AM Lifetime dreck.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like saying that the alternative to Mike Trout is some hobo they found that played baseball in 1948.

Comment From Co-founder of the USSMariner.com
some idiots i know think the orioles and angels win 90 games, they dont believe my arguments against it. what would you say to them

Dan Szymborski: Well, they *could* it’s just not particularly *likely*.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe 15% or so for each?

Comment From Eric
Both of Jays 1st rounders are protected. Which is why it’s insane they haven’t signed Drew + Santana already.

Dan Szymborski: Errr, yeah, I actually meant 2nd/3rd (as I’ve indicated in many discussions over the weekend!)

Dan Szymborski: I’m juggling like 3 different things here, so a little more disctracted

Comment From Harry
Viciedo to the Mariners brings back _______________ to the White Sox?

Dan Szymborski: hilarity?

Dan Szymborski: The mariners seem determined to make our jokes about them accumulating DHs stick around.

Comment From gareth
If you were Ervin Santana, would you choose the jays or the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: Jays. They need me more.

Comment From Guest
Bowie name: Cleveland Spiders from Mars

Comment From saskatunes
c’mon guys it’s easy: Ziegy Stardust

Comment From gareth
Carlos Santana apparently does not look good at third. Experiment over?

Dan Szymborski: It makes sense to let it go in spring as long as possible, but to be prepared to only have him as an emergency option once games count.

Dan Szymborski: A SS/3B combo of Cabrera and Santana might make Masterson seek depression medication by the end of May.

Comment From KHitt
What are your thoughts on Bonds being brought in to advise or coach with he Giants?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine the best player of his era has *some* kind of useful information

Comment From dbet
Ethier + 40 Mil(makes him about 8 mil /year) for Franklin?

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Dan Szymborski: If the M’s can’t get a pitcher, they should probably trade Franklin during the season, after some kind of nasty surprise.

Comment From Pablo Sanchez
Is it possible for you generally say that players have a ___% of being within +/-___% of your projected numbers?

Dan Szymborski: 100, 1000

Comment From gareth
Juggling 3 things at once is for women. Guys can’t multitask.

Dan Szymborski: I multitask a lot.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a little odd. I’m really, really bad at filtering out irrelevant information around me.

Dan Szymborski: I will usually wear earplugs when I’m out in public.

Dan Szymborski: If I’m at a game or at a bar, without them, I end up listening to 20 conversations simultaneously, which makes me seem inattentive and aloof.

Comment From Bryan
This TV-WAR argument is bizarre… but anyway, WAR is a measurement versus replacement, not next-best. In peak years HBO can be the 1927 Yankees, totally dominant. They’re not going to air a Lifetime movie, ever… but Lifetime is another “team” in the “major leagues”, so to speak, and they are putting out product that theoretically competes with HBO’s. Replacement-level product, that.

Comment From dapperslacks
Is there any way you can run a ZiPS projection on Barry Bonds this year?

Dan Szymborski: By this point, ZiPS will have whittled away his playing time to just about nothing.

Dan Szymborski: It would be such an unusual occurrence that I’m not sure ZiPS — or anybody’s — estimate of Bonds in 2014 woul dhave any real value.

Dan Szymborski: I felt similarly about Mulder. While I could run a ZiPS, it was mainly so that there’s be one and I had little faith in what he could do.

Comment From Kris
Oops I’m wrong, it’s 8. Initial reports were 15-20.

Comment From Donovan
What is Zach Britton’s trade value at this moment?

Dan Szymborski: Minimal

Comment From gareth
Dan just self diagnosed himself as A.D.D

Dan Szymborski: Is that really ADD?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not that I’m inattentive, it’s that I’m attentive to too many things. I don’t think people with ADD are cured by basic earplugs.

Comment From KHitt
What do you think about my new band name: Fist Full of Bacon?

Comment From Guest
With pot being legal in Washington and Colorado, are players on those teams able to partake in such activities, or do they answer to MLB’s drug policy?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball’s policy they would be suspended.

Comment From james
mark loretta’s scars

Comment From KHitt
There are many supplements that are legal to buy that are banned by USADA and others, DHEA being one…

Comment From Bryan
As a resident of Colorado, I can tell you that “legal” means the state won’t interfere, but your employer can still fire you or otherwise punish you for using, on or off the job.

Comment From Guest
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adhd#Signs_and_symptoms

Comment From gareth
I get my self diagnosis skills from web M.D. I am currently suffering from narcolepsy, irritable bowel syndrome and herpes. I could be wrong……….

Comment From RBest
you have low latent inhibition

Dan Szymborski: Do you guys diagnose other stuff?

Dan Szymborski: For example, I twisted my knee badly a few years ago while crawling through a tunnel at the St. Louis City Museum.

Dan Szymborski: Since then, if my knee’s been bent a while, there’s an audible, painless pop when I straighten it.

Dan Szymborski: I assumed it would go away if I ignored it. It did not.

Comment From A. Lane
Meniscus tear, in the outer third.

Comment From KHitt
Meniscus scarring

Comment From kevinthecomic
Dan Szymborski: For example, I twisted my knee badly a few years ago while crawling through a tunnel at the St. Louis City Museum. — you have a bad case of ‘twisted knee’

Dan Szymborski: Lane and HItt sound more sciency.

Comment From Bryan
If you want to crowdsource your medical treatment, this is probably the wrong place to do it…

Comment From Matt
You can legally buy Ephedrine OTC in all states, but it is still banned in sports

Comment From Sadwick
I have diagnosed myself with a condition called life, it is completely untreatable and eventually results in death, or death-like symptoms.

Comment From KHitt
and we concur, so it is so.

Dan Szymborski: So what do I do? It doesn’t seem to hinder me in any way and seems asymptomatic otherwise. Plus, I’m not a professional athlete, I’m a professional writer. Which is the opposite of an athlete.

Comment From Michael
I have been diagnosed with a distinct lack of life, otherwise I probably wouldn’t be here

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to shuffle off this digital coil for another week.

Comment From E
Why does Delino Deshields have a zips projection?

Dan Szymborski: Jr.

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find me at ESPN.com, here on FanGraphs for chats and projections, DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m doing #MockDraftMonday on ESPN.

Comment From Pablo Sanchez
No, DeShields senior http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=275&position=2B

Dan Szymborski: That’s just mapped to the wrong player. Not actually a projection for him.