Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/1/17

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Chat begins.

1:59
Dan Szymborski: THE BEGINNINNING

1:59
Josh Nelson: What are the NY Mets options at 3B with so much uncertainty surrounding David Wright?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Reyes will get a lot of time there. So will Flores if they’re smart.

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Are you the real Josh Nelson? If so I want to hear your favorite fact about George Washington.

2:00
CamdenWarehouse: What’s ZIPS’ projection for David Ross on Dancing with the Stars?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the requisited information about dancing.

2:00
CamdenWarehouse: Is David Ross really a star?

2:01
Dan Szymborski: He is now!

2:01
Rockies: Who’s more likely to have a 20/20 season, Desmond or Dahl?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Desmond, I don’t think Dahl will steal enough.

2:02
S: Bud Black invited a bull to Rockies camp yesterday. Do you believe team building exercises help teams at all?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Not really.

2:02
Dan: Do you think the Cubs should trade Almora + Happ for B. Hamilton?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: No

2:03
Dan Szymborski: The team is fine as-is. They should save prospect trades for when needs arise.

2:03
Mike: How many innings will Brett Anderson pitch this year?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: 40? History for the guy isn’t nice.

2:04
Tom: How many HRs + RBIs out of the 1-2-3 for the Cubs?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Like 75 and 260?

2:04
CamdenWarehouse: It’s Dan’s regular Wednesday appearance on a Wednesday

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Weird

2:04
CamdenWarehouse: Do you consider the WBC “meaningful baseball”?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Why not?

2:06
Ned Yost: If our first name was Bob, then you could have a cool nickname like Szym-bob-we.

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Chass thinks my name is Szymbobski

2:07
Gtrope87: Which player are you going to gloriously create on WWE next? Also, which MLB player do you think would make the best wrestler in real life?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Not sure yet.

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Best wrestler?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Puig maybe?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: He’s strong and it seems like he’d go for the showmanship stuff

2:07
intelati: Have you ever been shocked by a projection?

What’s your favorite underrated prospect? (Projected or otherwise)

2:08
Dan Szymborski: At times.

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Favorite underrated prospect? Hmm

2:09
Dan Szymborski: Maybe Willie Calhoun? I’m always fascinated by the prospect with a big hole but a really big strength.

2:09
The Average Sports Fan: When ZIPS disagrees with the other systems, do you follow that player closer?

2:09
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have patterns like that. I follow stuff that catches my interest more, but who knwos the whys and wheres

2:10
Maxamuz: Pod’s not a big fan of Dyson going in 2017. Seattle seems to like him as a possible everyday lead off hitter. If he secures the job, what do you think his results will be?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: If he’s a leadoff hitter, he’s miscast.

2:11
Dan Szymborski: He’s a back-of-the-lineup CF who has value because of his defense.

2:11
Dan Szymborski: he’s going to hit like 300/350 or something.

2:11
Dan Szymborski: We still haven’t wrung out that line of though that you go to jail if your leadoff hitter isn’t a speedy CF/2B/SS

2:11
Dan Szymborski: t

2:12
976: Is Dioner Navarro going to find a home this season? ZiPS kinda likes him.

2:12
Dan Szymborski: He’ll sign eventually. Tough market in that there were a lot of stopgap catchers.

2:12
PF: I think it’s fair to say that KATOH is VERY high on Vlad. Jr. Do you agree with its assessment, or are you hesitant to hype up a player so early?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Always be careful about a really young player, but that was a terrific performance in the minors for someone who’s incredibly young

2:13
ohioastrosfan: Best team in regards to combined current & future outlook?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Save that for the Future Power Rankings I do!

2:13
Rowdy Forever: Blue Jays first base situation. Would you take a flier on Tellez, or stick with the Smoaky Black Hole?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Normally, a contending team should be less risk-averse, but Smoak just isn’t good and I’d be more willing to roll the dice more.

2:14
Gig: Hi Dan – We’ve seen several SP come into prominence in recent times after 3-4 years in MLB, arriving at top tier level around age 28-29. I am wondering who you see emerging this year that fits this description. Thanks

2:14
Dan Szymborski: Depends on how you define top tier. I think Carlos Martinez could take a huge step forward.

2:14
Husky Harris: I knew Randy Orton was trolling the Wyatt family! What do you think happens at Wrestlemania?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: No idea, but it’ll make me hate Roman Reigns I’m sure.

2:14
Meat: If you could only play one video game right now what would it be?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: Right now? Hearthstone since I wanted to play more Tavern Brawl but we were getting close to two

2:15
Jose: I love Willie Calhoun more than his parents do. Am I falling for a fun story and a prospect that doesn’t fit a mold?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Have you *really* analyzed his parents love?

2:15
Gig: Dan — when analyzing young, highly rated SP who are breaking into MLB in years 1-2, what stats do you rate as more important than others in predicting success? Thanks,

2:15
Dan Szymborski: K rate is still damn important.

2:15
Matt M: what is the difference between these chats and MLBTR’s chats? thanks

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Well, I don’t do those.

2:15
Hannah Hochevar: Should the O’s give Nuno some starts, especially with Tillman missing opening day, or is he more useful out of the pen? Or does the term ‘useful’ not apply here?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: I think after the first three pitchers, it’s a stew of sadness and all the bowls are the same.

2:16
Darth Vader: If Hamels and Darvish both go sub 3.00 ERA and the rest of the rotation has say a 4.30, does that put them as the top rotation in the West?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Essentially, you’re asking me if the rotation is a lot better than expected would make them really good. So yeah, but you can say a question like this for half the teams in baseball

2:17
Josh Nelson: I liked how George Washington ate his opponents brains and invented cocaine.

2:17
Dan Szymborski: OK, it checks out

2:18
Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : Any personal outlook on Rymer Liriano? Seems like an athletic specimen from what I’ve seen. I know ZiPS isn’t optimistic for this year.

2:18
Dan Szymborski: He’s worth trying, simply because the Padres are rebuildling and that’s what you do

2:18
Dan Szymborski: But I wouldn’t be super excited

2:19
Meat: Do the Padres win a World Series in the next 50 years? If so, do I live to be 84?

2:20
Dan Szymborski: I’ll say yes, just from probs. If you’re 34 now, I think you’re at like 45 remaining, so slight under.

2:20
Jason in Dallas: Is it too soon to be bored with ST games?

2:20
Dan Szymborski: Well, they’re not great yet and we know WBC is coming

2:20
Horn Please Thank You: Dodgers are making noises like Joc is going to be the everyday center fielder. They made the same noises last year and proceeded to platoon him. Any reason to think this year will end up differently?

2:21
Dan Szymborski: They’ll still sit him against tougher lefties, I think

2:21
Gabe Athouse: Why is replacement level for relievers constant? A 1-inning or matchup guy can come in balls out pounding every pitch to nail you. When a long reliever knows he is going to have to handle a lot of guys, he has to pace himself from the start to avoid blowing his load too early.

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Because it’s nto a PBP stat.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: And everyone is a 1-inning/matchup guy.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: And long relievers want to get better jobs

2:22
Yo Yo Mama: Assume Team A has Moncada, Benintendi, Vlad. Jr., Urias, and Swanson. Assume Team B has Trout. Does Team A have enough to trade for Trout? If not who would need to be added?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: If I could get Moncada, Benintendi, Vald. Jr., Urias, and Swanson for Trout, sorry but I trade Trout

2:22
Joe P: More concerning: Bogaerts’ second half or Beltre’s age and calf injury?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Beltre. He’s amazing, but he’s also fighting against time.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Time wins.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Eventually

2:22
Matt: Dan! I missed you. Thanks for showing up on the correct day.

2:24
Luis Perdomo: Do I have any shot at the Cy Young?

2:24
Dan Szymborski: You could probably shoot the trophy with a rifle or something

2:24
Dudley: Over/under 27.5 HRs

Sanchez
Judge
Bird

2:24
Dan Szymborski: At 27.5, I take the under.

2:24
CamdenWarehouse: because it’s not MLB?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: But it’s something really cool.

2:25
CamdenWarehouse: Chass is just too senile for names

2:25
Pete Rose: Favorite spot for Cincinnati Chili?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Someone else’s plate.

2:25
Queer Moe Dee: Or we could just call you SomeDorkSki

2:25
Jay: I read the Reds are considering a bullpen by multi-inning committee. Seems like a good year for them to experiment but if their bullpen is dreadful again and the numbers look ghastly, is this going to ruin the evolution of relievers?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: No.

2:25
Dan Szymborski: A lot of people made stupid planes before they got it right.

2:26
Keith: Any idea why White Sox have been balking at Quintana trades? Also why aren’t they more actively shopping Abreu. Probably won’t be a big contributor on the next great White Sox roster

2:26
Dan Szymborski: They haven’t settled for the moon yet.

2:26
Dan Szymborski: As for Abreu, I think they see value in him getting his old friend Moncada adjusted to majors

2:26
romorr: With the state of the Orioles farm, is it crazy to think trading Machado would be better for the Orioles long term over signing him? This past off season proved the Orioles are up against their budget.

2:26
Dan Szymborski: It might be, simply because I don’t think the O’s *can* sign him

2:27
976: Of the Padres current rotation, who has the most realistic chance to be in their future rotation 3 years from now?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Perdomo

2:27
IsIt2015Yet?: Michael Morse would be the best wrestler.

2:27
Best Wrestler: Obviously Crazy Eyes Hunter Pence

2:27
joeystats707: Who will have a better year between the Pirates SP of Nova, Taillon and Glasnow? Do you believe Glasnow will earn the 5th spot?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: I still think Glasnow starts in minors

2:28
Dan Szymborski: As for best year, I’ll say Taillon

2:29
romorr: Which would you say is DDs worse trade? Parra for Davies is bad for me since we signed Gallardo and forfeited the 14th pick.

2:30
Dan Szymborski: DD’s worst trade?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: Well, a certain Arrieta trade did not work out

2:30
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Rays are thinking about Corey Dickerson leading off. Sure, he dropped 20 pounds, but that’s still a rather odd choice, no? Wouldn’t Duffy or Kiermaier be a better option?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: Yes, it’s a rather odd choice.

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Though really, the Rays are likely to be a pretty poor OBP team across the board

2:31
Erik: What makes ZiPS significantly higher on a guy than other systems like Steamer or PECOTA? Are there any inputs that ZiPS over- or underemphasizes compared to those systems?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: I get a similar question once a week guys. I don’t know the inputs of Steamer/PECOTA, so I can’t make a meaningful evaluation of the inputs.

2:32
Dan Szymborski: It’s a completely unanswerable question. It’s like asking a historian if they think George Washington would consider a hot dog a sandwich. There’s literally no inside information to go by.

2:32
Jeff Bridich: Whatever I did to hurt you, I sincerely apologize.

2:32
romorr: If the Orioles are in it, is there someone outside of Sisco you want the Orioles to hold onto? Sedlock is easy, but is there a prospect you really like that might not get a lot of pub?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: If the O’s are in a pennant race and can improve, there’s really nobody in the minors that you’d be heartbroken about losing for a real gain

2:33
Dan Szymborski: And I’m talking about a real gain

2:33
CamdenWarehouse: Wouldn’t a .300/.350 hitter be decent enough for a lead off hitter? Especially if it comes with Dyson’s speed.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: The first rule of leading off is to not make outs.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: So is the second rule.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: The third rule is to be generally good.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Speed is like, I don’t know, 11th?

2:34
Erik: Is Charlie Blackmon the most likely Rockie to be traded? I don’t see Cargo bringing back much in return, and Charlie Blackmon is going to get expensive soon.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but who knows WTF the Rockies are doing. They’re playing Ian Desmond at 1B and wasted last year’s trade deadline completely.

2:34
976: Should Hyun-soo Kim bat leadoff given his high OBP, or no because he’s not a base stealing threat? Also, can he hit lefties, ZiPS seemed to think he can (last year)?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly a decent option

2:34
Bebop: what are the chances that Trevor Bauer has a better 2017 then Corrasco or Salazar?

2:35
Dan Szymborski: OR? I dunno, 30? Pitchers have pretty big error bars

2:35
Coffee: Putting aside playing time, do you think Javy Baez takes a step forward this year or will he always be a guy that cannot make contact enough to tap into his power?

2:35
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll always struggle with power

2:35
Bebop: if you’re Dave Roberts, does Brock Stewart make your starting five? (assuming Kershaw, Maeda, Urias and Hill are 1-4)

2:35
Dan Szymborski: No.

2:35
romorr: Is it wrong to hope the Orioles struggle? I really think the best thing the Orioles can do is sell off some guys who have some team control to restock the farm. It was obvious this year that money is tight, too tight to add obvious upgrades.

2:36
Dan Szymborski: It’s a situation of mixed feelings. More like you don’t want the O’s to struggle, but if they *do* happen to struggle, you want to be bad enough that they make serious changes

2:36
40:39;6: What are the advanced stats on parents love? I’m pretty sure 976 wants to see how he can use them to game DMB

2:36
Dan Szymborski: Time of possession?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: Like your dad’s time spent with you as a percentage of his free time?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: A corrector for distance away?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: If your dad lives 5 minutes away and you haven’t seen him since Easter, he might not be that into you.

2:39
Hot Dogs are Sandwiches: Where do zWAR and fWAR differ?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: FIP stuff, slightly different park factor

2:39
Matt: Cistulli makes graphs but is not a fan. Shouldn’t he go work for JustGraphs?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: He’s busy making the new site that they leaked earlier

2:40
Dan Szymborski:

2:40
Donkey Tonker Honker: Last night I threw a no-hitter with Shacho and his 42mph heater against the American Dreams. Anything is possible.

2:41
Dan Szymborski: The key in Baseball stars is jamming them inside. You can *really* induce bad contact in Baseball Stars

2:41
John: Are you all working on fixing the new Black search bar at the top of the site to work on Ipad? I’m sure you’ve heard, but it’s not working at all on Ipad. Thanks!

2:41
Dan Szymborski: I’m not working on that.

2:41
Nolan Arenado: When do I make the playoffs?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: You could make it in the next few years. I don’t think the Rockies are well-run at the MLB level, but they’ve pushed through enough minor league talent tha tthey can brute force a wild card run or two

2:42
Dan Szymborski: It’s just disappointing in a What Coulda Been way

2:42
Dan Szymborski: Given the opportunities to accumulate more value that they just threw in the garbage.

2:43
CamdenWarehouse: But at least Ubaldo is a stew of sadness who occasionally pitches really well

2:43
Dan Szymborski: And occasionally gives you a perforated bowel

2:43
Dan Szymborski: and then cuts you open with an ice cream scoop and stuffs staph ice cream in there

2:43
Jose: re: Willie Calhoun, I heard his dad treated him like J.K. Simmons in Whiplash, so yes, I love him more (this is how rumors get started)

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I didn’t know that

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Wait?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: What/

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I’m confused

2:43
bl27: difficult to say right now, I know, but how long Jung Ho Kang could miss ?

2:44
Dan Szymborski: That’s super hard, I don’t know

2:44
Dan Szymborski: Some kind of cracker? I saw a documentary on Fox once about these guys who bought Super Bowl tickets from this dealer and they turned out to be made of cracker and had the name Spungos written on them

2:44
Matty: Are people over exaggerating felix hernandez’s decline? He was injured last year so now steamer says he wont strikeout higher than a 7 k/9 rate

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Posisbly, but ZiPS might be too optimistic

2:45
CamdenWarehouse: (Rymer’s on his second team since leaving the Padres)

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Let me rephrase.

2:46
Dan Szymborski: I knew that but I typed Padres for some reason

2:46
Dan Szymborski: But the same thing, White SOx

2:46
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got Padres on the brain, I’m getting more Padres Qs than Nick Markakis Qs in a normal week.

2:46
Ian: I get why you picked Puig for best wrestler. I think you’ve overlooked Munenori Kawasaki

2:47
intelati: So yeah, I kind of forgot Cecil gets $7.5mil for the next three years. Seems like a totally un Mozeliakian move.

2:47
Dan Szymborski: It surprised me.

2:47
john: Hey Dan, been seeing lots of talk about Bullpenning. Just wondering what the potential downfalls and difficulties a team may face when first trying to implement this system?

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Nobody gets fired for conventional wisdom failing, they get fired when their new good ideas fail.

2:47
CamdenWarehouse: Time wins against all except Keith Richards

2:47
Carlos Correa: Should I really be the SS instead of Bregman?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Possibly not, but Correa called shotgun.

2:48
Babe Lincoln: What is your desert island video game?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’ll get ideas

2:48
Derek in Little Rock: Crystal ball for Trevor Story’s career?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Crystal balls are not expensive, I would not exchange them for a player with such a good service time situation.

2:48
Saditude: What’s on your games bucket list for 2017, non Switch division? I need to get excited for something

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I try to get not excited about games until they’re out. I’ve had my heart broken.

2:49
JasonG: How much long-term concern do you have about Alex Reyes’ potential after Tommy John?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Mild because of uncertainty, but I’ll take an elbow injury over a shoulder

2:49
Raindog: As an O’s fan, I wait every day for a rumor about the O’s signing Fister or Lewis or some non-disaster 5th/6th starter that I know will never come. Is this better evidence of the Orioles’ foolishness or my own?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I would think Fister would be a really nice fit

2:49
Dr. Met: Who starts at C for the Phils this year?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: Rupp and the team hopes Alfaro is good enough to push him off

2:50
Kristen: Which player would you pay the most to watch them try parkour – Bartolo Colon, Pedro Alvarez, or Prince Fielder?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: Bartolo. He’d have the most fun doing it. Prince has a spinal thing obviously and I don’t want him to get injured

2:50
romorr: Yea, but we weren’t letting Arrieta throw the cutter here no matter what.

2:50
Dan Szymborski: Spending $10 for a $5 bill is still a bad trade even if my other idea for the $10 was to pay someone to punch me in the face for it.

2:50
Matt: I’m starting a revolution. When ever I get dressed up, I’m gonna refer to it as getting Jameson’d. Because I have a tie on. Get it? A tie on?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Banned.

2:51
Alex: How much higher would the leaguewide K rate have to get before MLB would start looking at taking action (lowering the mound or something similar)? Or is it just easier for them to tinker with things that don’t matter so that they’re Doing Something?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re already considering stuff.

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Strike zone stuff most likely

2:51
Joe Gibbons: If you had to choose a player to start a team with, would you pick Bryant or Arenado?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Bryant

2:51
Dabo Dabo Sweeney: D Szyzy….any good blogs, website, etc. that you can recommend if I want to get the daily spring training juice? I’ve been having to visit every individual beat writer or SBnation for each specific team. I know this is a typical millennial question, but just wondering if there is a spot where I can just read the daily happenings from each team in one spot. Thanks!

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Places like MLBTR try, but it’s hard to get *everything* in one place.

2:52
Matt: I wrote a projection algorithm. It’s basically just a web scraper that steals ZiPS. I call it MiPPs

2:52
intelati: What’s your biggest hit or miss player? (AKA the guy who could set the world on fire or get sent down to AAA for the year)

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Someone like Gurriel

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Actually, EITHER one

2:52
bananastand: You said that the dodgers would platoon Joc Pederson against tough lefties, but wouldn’t it make sense to platoon him against bad lefties? Against good lefties, it will be tough for anyone to hit well, so it makes sense to put a good defensive center fielder. Against a bad lefty, you would think there would be a bigger performance gap between Joc and a righty

2:52
Dan Szymborski: As in sit him against tough lefties

2:52
Gig: What on your thoughts on the Brewers young GM so far?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: So far, so good.

2:53
Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : Tim Anderson in the top two spots in the order has been driving me crazy (he went like 100 PA without a walk), but given that the Sox won’t contend, is it a good strategy to get him a ton of at bats and leave him up there?

2:53
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it probably doens’t matter. In the case of the White Sox, were wins are literally irrelevant, I’d put him where he is most comfortable

2:53
976: Hey Look! It’s a fellow LWNN owner jealous of the #LWNNMets success!!! We have admirers everywhere. Probably the Phils, who still don’t understand splits.

2:53
976: PS I’m starting Adam Lind at 2B this year vs RHP. That’s Szymborski inspired.

2:53
Dan Szymborski: Don’t expect a rating

2:53
Raindog: Could the Orioles have a first half bad enough that they choose to punt 2018 and trade Machado before next July?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: It would have to be REALLY REALLY bad

2:54
Brandon M: Do you think teams such as the Marlins and Rockies that run their organizations differently and make some unconventional player decisions make baseball more fun or would you rather they be run by more conventional management?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: They make it more fun for me for sure.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: For their fans, not so much

2:55
976: Is Kopech starting off in AAA? I want to see him in Charlotte because I’ve never seen a guy throw 110 before.

2:55
Dan Szymborski: They actually starting him off at AA I though.

2:55
natsfan: Which forever injured past his prime star would you prefer to have on your team – David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Wright.

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Zimmerman is just healthy and terrible.

2:55
romorr: I guess I can defend the Arrieta trade in my mind, since he was so awful here, and needed the change of scenery. Arrieta is obviously better, but I can’t defend the Parra / Davies deal, at all.

2:55
EbenezerBatflip: Hey, I want to watch 4K baseball games. Do you? Do you care? Do you think other people care about 4K? I want to see the stiching on the baseball as its flying through the air at 100mph. Can you make this happen?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: I would, but I don’t have any 4k screens yet

2:56
jon: Which one of the Cubs core position players gets traded off the roster first?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think leaving is likely due to trades.

2:56
guitar_davey: Best wrestler – Brett Lawrie

2:56
Rob: Did you ever play Base Wars on NES? How high do players salaries need to get before the owners resort to robots which fight each other to resolve whether they were tagged or not?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: We can’t even get robot strike zones

2:56
chip: J.P. Crawford… more valued for Defense or Offense?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: It’s the combo. You can’t extract parts of a player.

2:56
Erik: Basestealers are supposed to bat 5th or 6th, right? You want them before the bad hitters, not immediately before the good ones.

2:57
Dan Szymborski: The problem you run into is that profiles as a hitter will always be more important than the speed

2:57
CamdenWarehouse: Obviously we need to ask what should the Padres trade for Nick Markakis?

2:57
Dan Szymborski: Nothing.

2:57
v2micca: Why do you get so many Nick Markakis questions? There isn’t really anything inherently interesting about him.

2:57
JC: Is Kyle Hendricks an average pitcher who pitched way above his head last year, or a very good pitcher who had a good year?

2:57
Dan Szymborski: He’s a solid average-plus pitcher who had ana amazing one

2:58
Maxamuz: If you could throw a wrestler into a volcano, which one would it be and what move would you use?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Sid Vicious, Szymborskicanrana

2:58
Justin Smoak: What do the Blue Jays see in me?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: beer goggles?

2:58
chip: Does it bother you that Syndergaard is trying to throw HARDER, without having had bone chips removed?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: I don’t question the gods.

2:58
Josh: Are you as optimistic about a Chris Sale bounce back in Boston as zips?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:58
Erin Schatz: apologies if you have answered this before i just discovered your work a couple weeks ago and am catching up! do you use spring training stats in your projections or do you just dismiss them as not predictive enough since the quality of batters/pitchers faced/effort given etc is unknown

2:59
Dan Szymborski: There seems to be *very slight* value to them — Rosenheck’s done some work. They just come too late for me to work with them

2:59
Damian: How many of the question that you get are people looking for you to validate their wishful thinking?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: A surprisingly large amount

2:59
intelati: Your favorite player to watch (regardless of stats, just fun to see)?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: BARTOLO

2:59
I’m about to die in a tornado: I want my last act to be for the betterment of humanity. Go check out Queso Blanco by the Quaker City Night Hawks. It’s an all-time great for a completely idiotic song that just works.

2:59
v2micca: It sounds like the Braves still haven’t solved their parking issues at SunTrust Stadium. Am I alone in thinking this issue is being massively downplayed and has the potential to torpedo a lot of the extra revenue the Front Office is expecting from the new stadium?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: They’ll get their revenue.

3:00
Jake: Are you going to be speaking at SABR Analytics Conference in Phoenix next week?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I am not

3:00
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Add HDR to the 4K demands. And VR from behind home plate for that premium experience.

3:00
jon: Follow up: Cubs core free agency class 2021: Rizzo, KB, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, 2022: Contreras, Almora, Edwards

All retained until free agency?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: You said core!

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I thought we were just talking about the big boys

3:00
El Guapo: The fact that Aaron Judge hasn’t been mentioned for a potential wrestler belies all of the commentariat Yankee hate.

3:00
CamdenWarehouse: Crabs!

3:00
Dan Szymborski: On that note, 3:00 and time for me to go!

3:01
Dan Szymborski: (Got a deadline today, so no Lightning Round)

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone! You can find my work at ESPN.com, projections and chats at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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  1. Daniel says:

    If you asked Mike Hazen to project Mitch Haniger’s career, would he respond with “80% chance he’s Mac Williamson, 20% chance he’s Yoenis Cespedes”? Because the projections freakin’ love that kid and I have trouble understanding how the D-backs valuated him.