Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/14/16

Q-Ball: How does one pronounce “Szymborski”? zim-BOAR-ski?

Dan Szymborski: Hey guys! Starting a bit early because I have to go strictly at 1 for an ESPN fantasy chat.

Dan Szymborski: Err fantasy mock draft

Dan Szymborski: there is no chat.

Bork: Any spring training performances catch your eye yet? Bad or good.

Dan Szymborski: Giolito curveball broke my laptop.

The Cincinnati Kid: Let’s pretend Desmond is fine in the OF. Let’s pretend Hamilton comes back and let’s pretend he’s above “terrible.” What do you surmise the Rangers do with playing time?

Dan Szymborski: I doubt the scenario occurs. If it does happen, no team has had OMG TOO MUCH QUALITY as an actual problem.

Dan Szymborski: I think Desmond will be fine in the OF — Hanley Ramirez has led everyone to suddenly believe moving to the OF is typically a tough change — but I have little faith in Hamilton’s health or abilities.

Zonk: What is your quick ranking of the AL Central?

Dan Szymborski: You’re going to have to check out ESPN Mag!

Dan Szymborski: And ESPN.com as we get to opening day!

The Cincinnati Kid: The starting 1B for the Astros on Friday, May 20th, at home, against the Texas Rangers is:__________

Dan Szymborski: Stiull Singleton

JDogg: As of today … Heyward or Brantley?

Dan Szymborski: Heyward

Bork: Can we expect you and Bautista vs Chase and Gossage at Wrestlemania?

Dan Szymborski: WWE never returns my calls

Gerb: Yan Gomes in 2016 will resemble A) 2014 Yan Gomes, B) 2015 Yan Gomes, C) Something in-between ?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a boring answer, but you guys gotta stop asking questions where the answer is c if you want to avoid boredom

JDogg: Who says no … Tigers send Fullmer, Moya and Castellanos to the Rays for Longoria and Moore

Dan Szymborski: Rays I think.

Dan Szymborski: Fullmer is nice, but Castellanos has disappointed and Moya has very little value.

Julio Pepper: You’ve said before that you combine ZIPs projections with your own playing time estimates. How do you come up with these? Is there any kind of formal, automated process, or do you just kind of squint at the numbers and manually adjust them?

Dan Szymborski: Go one-by-one. Takes awhile.

Chuncey Wiggins: Are you buying Hector Olivera’s batting performance thus far?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure a .480 BABIP is real.

mtsw: Celebratory pie-in-facing by baseball player shouldn’t be banned until someone is actually injured by it. Change my view.

Dan Szymborski: I cannot.

Bill: Any shot Brantley is back by the beginning of May?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible – he’s already doing Baseball Activities©

Devin: What do you think trayce Thompson’s ceiling is?

Dan Szymborski: Devon White?

Chuncey Wiggins: Which player most likely can fit an entire baseball inside their mouth?

Dan Szymborski: Papelbon?

Devin: Do you have any thoughts on low nationals prospect drew van Orden or low Dodgers prospect tommy bergjans?

Dan Szymborski: Orden’s maybe a back-end starter, but I’m skeptical he can get upper minors hitters out

Dan Szymborski: Bergjan’s fastball is a little too straight, but he’s itneresting at least

Bork: Giolito is now Goose’s favorite player. DOWN WITH THE NERDS

Adam: What’s your take on Dick Williams? Seems to be night and day different than Jocketty?

Dan Szymborski: Too soon to say

Dan Szymborski: Separating who is responsible for what in a front office is more difficult than ever before.

Dan Szymborski: INcreasingly, we’re going to have to evaluate front offices as a whole

Chuncey Wiggins: What a reasonable amount to pay someone to collect a glassful of morning dew from your backyard for breakfast?

Dan Szymborski: Is this a sex joke?

Anonymous Coward: Hector Olivera hitting a bunch of singles means he’s going to hit enough to stick in left field, right? Right?

BakedBean: How good can Hanley be at 1B if he fields the position decently and hits the ball? Can he be a 3 WAR player?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe, but he has to hit better

JDogg: best bww sauce is?

Dan Szymborski: Wild

Josh: Do the D’backs roll with Socrates Brito?

Dan Szymborski: They probably shouldn’t.

Pimple Popper MD: Kershaw aside and all external factors being equal. Who is the best SP in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Well, Kershaw

Zonk: Is Bryce Harper right? More emotion, more batflips?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Adam: As a Reds fan, okay to get hopes up by Peraza’s spring performance?

Dan Szymborski: Geez guys, this isn’t even getting excited about springg performance. This is now getting excited about a percentage of spring performance.

Hank: Do you think Orlando Arcia and JP Crawford are going to break out big and be on the same level as guys like Carlos Correa/Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager?

Dan Szymborski: I like both, but Correa level is tough. It’s ridiculous how many awesome young shrotstops we have now

Josh: What is a reasonable innings expectation for Jesse Hahn and Drew Smyly? Both are high on the possible Tommy John list.

Dan Szymborski: Given the associated risks 140-150

Bork: If you’re Alex Rios who are you casting your voodoo on the hardest?

Dan Szymborski: Cast a wide net.

KHitt: am I here?

Dan Szymborski: Are you?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, feel free to intersperse the random Lightning Round questions. With a strict 1:00 end, no time for a formal one today

JDogg: is it crazy to expect Ortiz to finish higher on the player rater than Chris Davis?

Dan Szymborski: I think it is

Dan Szymborski: Let’s save some time guys – I’m not answer any more Has _______’s outlooked changed in 20 spring plate appearance? Questions.

Dan Szymborski: Errr, bad punctuation.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s save some time guys – I’m not answering “Has _______’s outlooked changed in 20 spring plate appearance?” questions.

Dan Szymborski: Assume no.

Pale Hose: Is Kershaw a little underwhelming for reigning best pitcher in baseball, or did Johnson/Maddux/Clemens set that bar too high? I suppose it could be both or neither.

Dan Szymborski: YOu sound like a very greedy person.

Ritt Momney: Odds that Turner is starting for the Nats before June?

Dan Szymborski: 60/40 for?

Rick C: Taylor Motter is off to a good start this spring. Do you like his chances of starting the season in Tampa?

Dan Szymborski: If the Rays like him enough to start him off in the majors, they like him enough to not start him off in the majors and get the extra year.

Zonk: As a Cubs fan, I can tell you Wrigley does NOT have very good ballpark food. What park does have the best?

Dan Szymborski: PNC

Tank: Is Ozzie Albies closer to a future star or just average regular

Dan Szymborski: TBD

Josh: Do you think the O’s leave Machado in the leadoff role all year? What other options do they have?

Dan Szymborski: He makes sense

Chuncey Wiggins: If mound visits are going to be timed, would it make sense for teams to catapult their managers from the dugout to the mound to give them as much time as possible to discuss strategy?

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely.

JDogg: If Marte + Heyward provide you 40/40 counting stats .. why not wait until the end of the draft to take Trumbo + Burns; who will prob also get you 40/40?

Dan Szymborski: Not necessarily Burns, but I can’t disagree too much – I think Heyward is being drafted a litttle high in fantasy and Trumbo low

Los: Happy Pi day Dan. Any celebrations planned or are you not THAT much of a nerd?

Dan Szymborski: It’s really efforty

KHitt: Should Jered Weaver call it a career?

Dan Szymborski: For $20 million, I’d give it a try.

Bork: What has a higher probability? Archer being traded this year or your hairline stops going back?

Dan Szymborski: Archer. Believe it or not that’s always been my hairline – had the same hairline as a kid, I just have a giant forehead. The balding is the bald spot on the back of my head.

Zonk: If one wants to see prospects, where is the best place in the US to live? Arizona?

Dan Szymborski: Either Florida or Arizona and Arizona doesn’t have the appearances by Florida Man.

Jordankaufman7@gmail : What type of MLB analytics are being added to espn?

Dan Szymborski: More of the type you see. It’s a very numbery place and you can see Stats & Info type stuff.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in that part – I write articles that use data more than just have data.

The Cincinnati Kid: With Rodgers & McMahon in the pipeline, couldn’t the Rockies afford (service time) to start Trevor Story on Opening Day?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but an extra year also makes him more of a trading asset.

Dan Szymborski: I still pick up a $5 bill I find in the dryer even if I have twenties in my wallet.

OnSight: Its seems most people are already looking past Singleton to AJ Reed, do you still have hope Singleton can put it together?

Dan Szymborski: It’s fading. Reed is just more interesting.

BakedBean: Thoughts on Boston being a home for a NL team in the next 10-20 years? I think Bostonians would embrace another team, do you think this would work?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: New York would get a third team before Boston a second one.

daneyko: Y.Grandal was a beast (for a catcher) last summer before a shoulder issue. Do you believe in him this season ? 260 avg ? 18 HR, 65 RBI ?

Dan Szymborski: Shoulders are trickyl.

Dan Szymborski: Back, sorry, spilled my drink on myself and had to put on a new shirt

Chuck: Do you believe that Kolten Wong is the Cardinals best option at the lead off spot?

Dan Szymborski: Think it’s Carpenter

The Cincinnati Kid: How will you be celebrating Pi Day?

Dan Szymborski: Eating cake because I’m a failure

mtsw: If Jon Niese were on the Orioles, where would he rank in their rotation?

Dan Szymborski: 4?

Q-Ball: Who is the worst defender in baseball that will be asked to take the field most of the year?

Dan Szymborski: Trumbo

The Cincinnati Kid: “Separating who is responsible for what in a front office is more difficult than ever before” that sounds like Dave Stewart might borrow that quote down the road

Los: Mango Habanero is the best BWW sauce.

Dan Szymborski: I like wings straight-up

Waka: Made some bold calls/ took some fliers on some guys and curious about your take on them. Grabbed Ozuna, Saunders, Desclafani and Kennedy very late. Opinions?

Dan Szymborski: Interested in Desclafani, very disintered in Kennedy. Others worth a flier

j6takish: Whats Miggys decline look like? Are future injuries the only thing that will hamper his production?. Does he ever post a negative war season?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll slowly become more one-dimensional.

Dan Szymborski: It’ll look a bit like Pujols early decline

Merv Throneberry: Is Keon Broxton the new OF to watch? Please tell us more…

Dan Szymborski: He’s fun, but I don’t know if he’s actually good

CamdenWarehouse: Has John Danks already pitched himself out of a chance at the rotation? If he hasn’t, will he?

Dan Szymborski: The memes are Danks.

Dan Szymborski: They’ll keep throwing him out there

BakedBean: why do people equate batflips and emotion to disrespecting the game? why is showboating considered so disrespectful? alternatively, why is being an emotionless baseball borg considered respectful of the game? it is a child’s game, right?

Dan Szymborski: People like finding things to bitch about.

Floozy: Do you like eovaldi this year?

Dan Szymborski: Keep waiting for him to be good. I think he’ll be OK.

Dan Szymborski: Eovaldi is like Dave Mlicki: The Next Generation. He has his moments, but you can’t help but feel he was supposed to be better

Alex: Considering contracts and production would you rather have Adonis Garcia or Hector Olivera? Do you believe that Garcia can be an average regular?

Dan Szymborski: Olivera as he’s more of a gamble.

Dan Szymborski: In that he could be horrible or actually good

mtsw: Any reason to think Miguel Gonzalez is a more worthy rotation member for the Orioles than Vance Worley, other than seniority?

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly

mtsw: Trump and Ted Cruz go into the GOP convention, both with 1000ish delegates. What happens?

Dan Szymborski: Mayhem

jasper: not seeing anything on fangraphs on kakie bryan and getting really confused

Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me smack you.

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: If Correa’s defensive numbers normalize at what occurred last year, how long until he moves to third?

Dan Szymborski: Again a wait and see.

mtsw: What odds would you give that Kershaw pitches a perfect game this season?

Dan Szymborski: 1 in 5

Michael: Odds AJ Reed puts up a higher RC+ than Carlos Correa?

Dan Szymborski: 15%? Correa’s really good.

The Cincinnati Kid: Are you voting tomorrow in Ohio? Care to share your vote?

Dan Szymborski: Rubio

Dan Szymborski: Just a protest – the primaries are over.

Mike S.: Should we expect the next wave of Baby Braves in 2016 or 2017?

Dan Szymborski: 2017

EC: Which top tier pitcher could “go Kershaw” and just go to the next level?

Dan Szymborski: Ain’t nobody going Kershaw

mtsw: Which will end at a higher number: Adam Jones career WAR or Dylan Bundy career major league starts?

Dan Szymborski: Jones

EC: Could Desmond handle CF? Rangers said they believe so. Also, what does he do next year as a free agent, market himself as IF? OF? UTIL?

Dan Szymborski: I think he probably could, though not enough to be an asset

Cousin Mose: Mac Williamson said he worked with Duffy over the winter to alter his swing to generate more fly balls. How easy is this to just do and does he have a reasonable shot at displacing Pagan later this year?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t understand the question – why would the team’s starting third baseman need to displace Angel Pagan in left?

Dan Szymborski: Oh

Dan Szymborski: I misread

Dan Szymborski: I think Mac Williamson *Said* Duffy was working on his swing

Dan Szymborski: It’ll be tricky, simply because Williamson still has a lot to prove and the Giants don’t typically like upending their regulars unless they have a compelling reason to do so

DDSP: Trevor Story sucks, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK – a bit below average but not horrible

Chet: I have a feeling that Stephen Strasburg is going to have the season everyone has been waiting for him to have since he was drafted #1 overall. How surprised would you be if he was the best pitcher in baseball this season?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly because of Kershaw’s existence. But it’s possible.

Alex: Does Villar do enough this year to keep Arcia in the minors for the entire year or do we see Arcia in the bigs by midseason?

Dan Szymborski: Arcia will be up this year

James : Is Trea Turner a future top 5 SS?

Dan Szymborski: That’s tough given who the competition is

Outta my way, Gyorkass: In the next round of CBA negotiations, is there any salary bump in sight for first-three-years players?

Dan Szymborski: May get a few thousand on the minimum, but nothing serious

mtsw: Does Ethier get traded before his 10/5 rights kick in?

Dan Szymborski: I think no

Dave: Do you agree with the projections on Tyler Duffey, or did he show enough last year that we should be more optimistic?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re off. He’s a two pitch pitcher who hits 90.

Dan Szymborski: They’re risk.

Dan Szymborski: there’s risk

Cards fan: Don’t ask me why but I’ve always liked Ruben tejada. What would it take to get him? Possible Mets would trade tejada and a prospect for a better prospect from the cards?

Dan Szymborski: Tejada I think will come cheaply

Oden: On a scale of Gary Busey to Crispin Glover, how nuts was Girardi’s comp of Luis Severino to Greg Maddux?

Dan Szymborski: You do need to remember that Maddux wasn’t MADDUX at first. It’s recent years, not a career comp.

Sgt. Pepper: The study room I’m in has a half full bottle of Iced Tea in it. Do I risk it?

Dan Szymborski: Sure. I’m not drinking it.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: How much do you love (or hate) the Alvarez signing for your boys in Baltimore?

Dan Szymborski: It’s meh. Pedro Alvarez isn’t a good enough hitter that it’s worth the consequence of having Mark Trumbo or Chris Davis pretned to be rightfielders.

Guest: Safeco has some dec food?

Dan Szymborski: Safeco is one of the few parks I have not been to.

Erik: How many years of the Royals significantly outperforming their projections would constitute proof that projection systems are lacking some key variable and cause you to update ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a very rigid question and unanswerable.

Dan Szymborski: Modeling doens’t work like that.

Bork: Timed mound visits really shows how much we need robot umps. Go past your time? Robot ump tosses the manager from the stadium (literally)

Dan Szymborski: Yes.l

Outta my way, Gyorkass: In terms of future value prospects on the 20-80 scale, what does a trade of Will Smith bring the Brewers?

Dan Szymborski: 45?

Jenny: I think you’re handsome, Dan!

Dan Szymborski: Now that’s a lie.

Bad Hermit: “I don’t trust men who like cats.” -Patricia C. Hewes

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know whot hat is

Alex: Do you see any players this year publicly complaining about starting in AAA due to delaying their service clock? like Bryant did?

Dan Szymborski: They’re more likely to keep it to themselves.

Jeese: Confused because everyone is talking about “Kakie Bryan” is Kakie Bryan a real prospect

Dan Szymborski: The meme is the danksest.

Guest: Will you in the future put zips up exclusively on the world wide leader?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t intend do and they haven’ tasked

Josh: Can Betts be better than prime McCutchen?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a stretch

Josh: What do you make of LAA 2B position? Does Giavotella hang on the the spot are will they go out and get some one if they are still competitive come the trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski: He’s the path of least resistance which works for the Angels.

mtsw: Ideal Trump running mate?

Dan Szymborski: a grizzly bear that doesn’t have a trainer?

David: Thoughts on Domingo Santana and possible impact this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be highly interesting if he gets the playing time

Nayrb Essej: Why are you guys always talking about Cake Bryant he’s not real

Ross: How big of a concern is the Mariners bullpen? Do they need to make a move?

BakedBean: weird, I guess I would hope for more of an explanation to my question :\

Dan Szymborski: Mariners bullpen towards the bottom of realistic contenders. There’s not much they can do at this point in the winter as they don’t have a ton of assets to trade

Dan Szymborski: As for you BakedBean, what is there to say? MLB hasn’t put a new team in an existing market for a long time and if they did, NY/NJ would get one long before Boston did.

Dan Szymborski: I’t snot happening in the next 20 years

florida man: think byung ho park lives up to the projections this year?

Dan Szymborski: I’m optimistic

Frank: BOLD PREDICTION TIME!!! AL MVP is George Springer. NL MVP is Yasiel Puig. AL CY YOUNG is Marcus Stroman. NL CY YOUNG is Stephen Strasburg. Which of these predictions is the most ludicrous?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby Springer because Trout exists.

Gary: Y Otani no in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: I have sads. I want him over here now.

Corey Seager: How worried are you about my knee?

Dan Szymborski: Not too much yet. Team is being careful

Dave: People are looking past SIngleton and Tyler White to Reed. At some point White has to get a serious look one would think.

Dan Szymborski: White is interesting at least.

Shea Jones: I’m going to be in Phoenix/Scottsdale for the next week. Which ST stadium in the area do you recommend? Actual team/matchup unimportant.

Dan Szymborski: No recommendations – I don’t go to Airzona

Merv Throneberry: Sano or Buxton?

Dan Szymborski: Buxton, but it’s not that close.

The Cincinnati Kid: Does Carter Capps return from TJ with the same delivery?

Dan Szymborski: No, he’s going to do the Lindy Hop in his delivery in 2017

Josh: Billy Hamilton steals ___ bases in 2016.

Dan Szymborski: numerous

Bork: If Machado gets injured and Alvarez plays 3rd, how hilarious will the Baltimore defense be?

Dan Szymborski: That’s not even funny.

Murdoc: Where will A-rod place on the career homer list after the 2016 season?

Dan Szymborski: Still 4.

Alex: Dan, Jhonny going down has really put me a bind. My best SS options are either Jon Villar or Eduardo Escobar. They’re both pretty sucky but who would you pick?

Dan Szymborski: Escobar has less scariness looking over his shoulder

Erik: Which hitter outside of last year’s top ten is most likely to beat out Trout and Harper for top WAR?

Dan Szymborski: Correa, though it’s tricky to beat out both.

Alex: thoughts on whispers reveal?

Dan Szymborski: I wrote about it!

Dan Szymborski: https://t.co/zLnwst669k

johnsnot20: Ever seen anyone quit an auction draft in the first round because they didn’t get the players they wanted? I did it Saturday. I didn’t get my nomination in before the limit, and instead of turning my bids off for 1 player the commish left it on for 3 players. Missed out on harper and Max because of human error. So I quit and ruined the draft.

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Jeff: Don’t you think the A.J. Reed crowd might be looking past Tyler White, who has been crushing it since he became a professional? Peak performance Billy Butler a good comp for White?

Dan Szymborski: PEAK Billy Butler as a White comp? We’re getting a little overexcited here.

Dan Szymborski: If you think Tyler White’s best comparison involves a 130 OPS+, you’re rather unaware of the history of walk-heavy 1B old for their levels.

Leif Erikson: How do you deal with the time change? Any Szymborski secrets?

Dan Szymborski: Everythign changes automatically and I usually don’t notice

Socrates Cheeto: Better experience at a game: Catch a foul ball, get on kiss cam or witness a brawl?

Dan Szymborski: Foul ball. I like stuff

Alex: If you had to make an obscure metaphor that describes the Colorado Rockies front office, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski: Star Trek Voyager

Dan Szymborski: Good prospects but they have no idea where they’re going and you kinda lose interest.

Bork: Tulo have any more all-star seasons left in him?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dave Szymborski: I like this shirt better anyway.

Q-Ball: What FO impresses you the most? The least?

Dan Szymborski: Chciago

Dan Szymborski: Chicago

Bad Hermit: If you are going to protest vote, vote Kasich. Or are you not a fan of more chaos?

Dan Szymborski: Kasich has been the best Trump-enabler. I’m not rewarding him for that.

Guest: As a natural rights libertarian, how would you respond to a utilitarian argument for some provision of welfare to the least well-off in society w/o deferring to the basic liberty answer (full disclosure, I’m a left-leaning Canadian econ and polisci student)

Dan Szymborski: I’m pragmatic. I see libertarianism as a goal to work *towards* not something you just implement on Day One of a dictatorship.

Kylie: Today is the day that med students find out whether they got a residency (and are allowed to continue their careers and training), or if they just wasted $200,000 and 8 years of their lives. Not really baseball relevant, but good luck to everyone!

Conor: Is Zips an OLS regression model, or more complicated than that?

Dan Szymborski: If I was that lazy I woudln’t even bother.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is a non-parametric model.

j6takish: Trump/Cistulli 2016

Erik: Rephrasing the Royals/ZiPS question: are the projections missing something important, which they will include a few years down the road once we discover what it is, or is this just expected random variance?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen enough of a pattern.

GlaDDos: The cake is not a lie

Dan Szymborski: OK, my mock draft over on ESPN is starting, so time to go.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!