Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/17/14 by Dave Cameron March 17, 2014 12:02 Dan Szymborski: It begins. 12:02 Dan Szymborski: The chat, that is, not an evil plan for world domination that has just been set itnto motion. 12:04 : 12:04 : 12:04 Dan Szymborski: OK, now back to our regular business 12:04 Comment From MitchPeacock or Randal Delgado? QS league 12:05 Dan Szymborski: Delgado a bit safer, I think. I still have hope for Peacock, but let’s not go nuts that quickly. Delgado and Bradley likely to get time pretty quickly, given that Corbin looks toasty for 2014 and McCarthy isn’t exactly durable 12:05 Comment From LudeBurgerdunna nuh dunna nuh (ESPN intro) 12:05 Comment From ConradCare to predict the next trade of a major leaguer…. 12:05 Dan Szymborski: Yes. The next trade of a major leaguer will occur in March, 2014. 12:06 Comment From American League HustleHey Dan. Hope you had a great weekend. Brad Miller has been batting 9th so far in the spring, and I recently saw a fairly credible website pencil him as the #9 hitter to start the season. As fantasy owners, should we be concerned right now or will we see him in his rightful spot at the top of the batting order come April 1? 12:07 Dan Szymborski: I’m not getting the feeling that McClendon’s going to hit Miller leadoff, at least at first 12:08 Dan Szymborski: I don’t get the impression that McClendon will do anything that creative or exciting. 12:09 Dan Szymborski: He’s kind of a bland retread and I haven’t seen anything yet with the M’s that makes me think otherwise 12:09 Comment From FredLast year ZIPS released a full document on fangraphs complete with speed rankings and platoon splits. This year I can’t find it anywhere. Any plans to release it so people like me can nerd all over it? 12:09 Dan Szymborski: I just haven’t posted the full-on part yet. Sometime thi sweek 12:09 Comment From Danany update on the DMB disk or defensive ratings? Or, for that matter, any new Zips that you’ve done? 12:09 Dan Szymborski: The disk is scheduled to come out, just haven’t completed everything yet 12:09 Comment From DLoweHi Dan, Standard 5 x 5, Segura or B Miller at SS? Eaton or L Martin in OF? Thanks 12:10 Dan Szymborski: I’d put Segura over Miller – Miller will be solid, but fantasy numbers aren’t park adjusted 12:10 Dan Szymborski: Except, oddly enough, wins. That’s kind of funny if you think about it. 12:11 Dan Szymborski: I’d put Martin above Eaton. 12:11 Comment From BradWhat are the odds of Javier Baez and Marcus Stroman making the big league club out of camp? 12:11 Dan Szymborski: Maybe 20% Baez, 40% Stroman 12:11 Comment From GuestPirates continue to cling to Volquez as #5 – does it cost them the playoffs? 12:12 Dan Szymborski: It could very well. I’m not a fan of it at all. 12:12 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, they turned around Liriano, but there were also more objective reasons to like Liriano 12:12 Comment From Rated RookieAny takeaways from Javier Baez’s performance and defensive positioning so far? 12:13 Dan Szymborski: That they’re giving him some time at second base all of a sudden indicates that he could make the majors relatively quickly. I still dont’ think th Cubs have a compelling need to blow a year of service time by starting him. 12:13 Comment From JeremyObviously you’re not a big fan of the Volquez deal. Is there someone else the Pirates have in camp right now that you’d be giving those starts to? Cole/Morton/Liriano are locks, Wandy if he’s still healthy. Jeff Locke would be better if he weren’t hurt. Would you go Pimentel, Cumpton, other? 12:13 Dan Szymborski: Over Volquez? Yes. If Volquez is willing to go to AAA, I’d be happy to have him there. 12:13 Dan Szymborski: If he’s really turned things around mechanically, he should have no trouble dominating in AAA. 12:14 Dan Szymborski: Giving him $5 million was ridonkulous. His last good season ended before John McCain’s presidential hopes. 12:14 Comment From RotoLandoI programmed my WarGames computer to use your ZIPS projections so, it could be. 12:15 Dan Szymborski: David should have tried to play Theaterwide Tactical Warfare or Theaterwide Biotoxic and Chemical Warfare. Easier to win. 12:15 Comment From JTSome of the recent meteors of planet eating destruction seem to have skewed our expectations for even top prospects and immediate success. Who are a few slower to get going guys you like for continued growth and more success in 2014? 12:17 Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly high on Jenrry Mejia still. Nolan Arenado’s bat will be better – his BABIP should have been higher. Wherever he ends up, Nick Franklin’s BA won’t be as low as 2013 12:18 Comment From VicDoes Trevor Bauer lack control? Or does he refuse to get hit hard rather than nibble? If he wanted, could he easily pitch to contact? 12:18 Dan Szymborski: He lacks control — at times. Bauer’s weird, I don’t have a detailed breakdown to reference (didn’t know the Q was coming), but it seems to me that Bauer’s control looks fine and then BOOM all of a sudden he’ll have a batter and nothing he throws goes anywhere logical 12:19 Dan Szymborski: His control is like one of those tower defense games. One of your defenses breaks down and then all of a sudden it’s a fustercluck of scrambling. 12:20 Comment From eisenhowerdrop smyly for ventura? 12:20 Dan Szymborski: Depends how risk-averse you are. Smyly’s safer – he’s got the rotation spot. Ventura has great odds of it, but the Royals have also expressed a willingness to use him in pen 12:20 Comment From Cleveland HopefulHow many games do you think Carlos Santana plays at 3B this year. He has looked pretty good in the games I have been able to watch? 12:20 Dan Szymborski: 15 12:21 Comment From PerryDoes Drew to Tigers make too much sense? So he’ll end up with the Yankees…. 12:22 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Tigers will do it. Pick #23 and Drew’s price is pretty expensive and if I’m not mistaken, the Tigers have already disavowed any nothing of Drew. 12:22 Dan Szymborski: Any *notion* 12:22 Dan Szymborski: Then again, I thought that it was unlikely the Braves would do it. 12:22 Comment From Co-founder of the USSMariner.comwant to join a non-12 team 5×5 league. should i go for – points league (with batter Ks, BBs,.. etc), a Only league, or a deep like 20 team 5×5 12:23 Dan Szymborski: Depends how experienced you are. Very experienced, I find it fun to do a less typical configuration so that the decisions are of a different nature. Inexperienced, a more typical config is safer. 12:24 Dan Szymborski: But I don’ tknow your personal likes and dislikes, so it’s super dangerous to outsource this decision to a fat guy with a cool job who you kinda know of. 12:24 Comment From DanI saw Yadiel Rivera was one of your top 5 Defensive SS’s in the minors, how many runs above average did your system have him? Also, who were the top 5 MiLB first basemen, I missed that tweet. 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Honestly, don’t know off-hand and Don’t have that pC open. 12:24 Comment From FlaccoStoleMyGirlFriendI’ve never get to read your chats live. I get to ask a question and don’t know what to ask? Ugh!! 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Yes. You don’t know what to ask. 12:25 Comment From MitchIs there any reason to hold on to Medlen in a dynasty? Might miss out on another SP waiting for him to hit the DL 12:25 Dan Szymborski: Depends who the particular choice is. 12:25 Comment From RotoLandoSzymborksi…that’s a fine Irish name…. 12:25 Dan Szymborski: I’m German, Polish, and Russian. The only thing I have in common with the Irish is that I sunburn easily. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: And my facial hair is red which makes no sense. 12:26 Comment From JTIn your game, ANDREW JACKSON is MIKE TROUT, right? I just bet my mortgage on him in Vegas. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: Trout’s an amazing player, but if I have to pick one of the two to kill a man just to wtch him die, gotta bet on Andy. 12:26 Comment From KJAll these presidential brawls and fighting styles have got me imagining this all taking place in Clayfighter. And it’s awesome. 12:27 Dan Szymborski: There’ sa fighting game for the PC that you can create fighters for that I cannot remember the name of for the life of me righ tnow. 12:27 Comment From CMRThrowdown between “Why does it say your chat is BY DAVE CAMERON” and “Can I just add up each player’s projected WAR to get team WAR?” which one wins? My money is on the former because it’s not seasonal, whereas the latter peaks when ZiPS spits out player projections. 12:27 Dan Szymborski: Probably the former. It’s a more universal question. 12:27 Comment From DougThoughts on Pujols as a (semi) sleeper this year? 12:28 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll bounce back to an extent. Probably has 1 star-type season left in him maybe 12:28 Comment From GuestDo we get to see Kris Bryant this year? 12:28 Dan Szymborski: Maybe an espresso. The Cubs have been pretty patient at promoting their plethora of prospects. 12:28 Comment From RotoLandoMy sausage fingers and Paddy brain can’t figure out how to use the projections to show which teams will rack up the most strikeouts all together. 12:29 Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually have my Monte Carlo give out the team numbers. Maybe I should make it do that at some point. 12:29 Comment From GuestCC looks like he’s doing ok. Think that’ll last? 12:29 Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic about him. 12:29 Comment From WoodrowDearest Dan, I must leave you. Why, I cannot say. Where, you cannot know. How I will get there, I haven’t decided yet. But one thing I can tell you, any time I hear the wind blow it will whisper the name Edna. And so let us part with a love that will echo through the ages. 12:29 Comment From GuestPirates can’t keep Polanco down too long, can they? 12:29 Dan Szymborski: They’re no way they let him get the year of service time, but I think we’ll see him up before the all-star break 12:30 Comment From JoeDo you think Drew Hutchinson’s spring is legit? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s not *this* good of course 12:31 Dan Szymborski: But the bigger concern for him was health, remember. 12:31 Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t Archie Bradley or anything, but he did pitch very well in the minors and was quite respectable in his stint in the majors 12:31 Dan Szymborski: And at a young age, too. 12:32 Comment From don zimmerAloha – I’ll be looking at rolling the dice between Axford, Nate Jones, Parnell, Hunter, and Veras for an RP slot. What does your gut and/or brain say? Alternate question: How do you see Carlos Martinez’ worth playing out? 12:32 Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think Martinez will be that valuable in a fantasy format this year. 12:32 Dan Szymborski: I like Parnell the mots of that group. 12:32 Comment From NorthsiderDoes Corbin get replaced internally or via trade? 12:32 Dan Szymborski: Yes. The Diamondbacks will field a pitcher in every game that he would have pitched. 12:32 Comment From RotoLandoObama got a pretty generous seed at #5. I’d be more afraid of Michelle 12:33 Dan Szymborski: He’s got youth (his life average isn’t pulled down by his decline years) and he seems to be in decent physical shape. 12:33 Dan Szymborski: Can you imagine James Madison playing basketball? 12:33 Comment From DaveIs there a way to download the Zips projections with positions and teams? 12:33 Dan Szymborski: bit.ly/2014ZiPS 12:34 Comment From The other KyleWhat are the chances Mike Olt hits 20+ HRs this year? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Don’t have the exact figure, but assuming he gets enough playing time, not bad. He does have power. It’s th eother stuff. 12:34 Comment From DaveZips projections aggregate to a lot more PA and IP than exist in a season. Why is that? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Because, as it says in the disclaimer, ZiPS is projecting equivalent playing time, and it could happen at any rpofessional level. 12:35 Dan Szymborski: And further, ZiPS is agnostic on playing time decisions. 12:35 Dan Szymborski: Why would we want a computer to tell us who Lloyd McClendon likes? 12:35 Dan Szymborski: I want a computer to tell me, based on the objective record, how good it expect a player to be. 12:36 Comment From GSonWould the Tigers be NUTS to throw away their first round pick and sign Drew? 12:36 Dan Szymborski: I think they would – I dont’ think their wins are particularly high leverage. 12:36 Dan Szymborski: Compared to a lot of other good teams. 12:36 Dan Szymborski: Indians and Royals have a chance, of course, but I think the Tigers are clearly a tier above him 12:37 Comment From DC_CoughlinSafe to just drop Corbin at this point in redraft league or wait for 2nd opinion? 12:37 Dan Szymborski: Grr, CiL crashed on me 12:37 Comment From Carlos SantanaI will play ___ games at 3B in 2014? 12:38 Dan Szymborski: 162, no. 12:38 Comment From quinceleatherSmardzidja to the d-backs good for the shark? would be good for the d-backs. 12:38 Dan Szymborski: I’ve got a piece in the hopper for ESPN on the various injuries this week, so not going to tip my hand there 12:38 Comment From ZackAny hope left for Corbin or just drop him? Norris, Stults, on waivers… 12:39 Dan Szymborski: In redraft, I’d drop him if you like the opportunities. We already *know* he has a damaged ligament, the second opinion seems to be his options. 12:39 Dan Szymborski: If he decides to rehab, he’s still going to miss time, and he still may not be very good, and he could very well end up needing surgery anyway. 12:39 Comment From PerryNick Franklin…who will blink first? Ms settle for sub-par return or one interested team finally overpays? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: I think the Mariners hang onto Franklin for now and see how events unfold during the season. 12:40 Comment From davidFeliz mph is back up…who you like closing for texas? Who has more saves at the end of the year? 12:40 Dan Szymborski: I think Feliz does. 12:41 Comment From Steve ZRoto 5×5, Adam Jones at $24 or A. Rios at $17? 12:41 Dan Szymborski: Jones. 12:41 Comment From davidHi Dan, 12:41 Dan Szymborski: Hi! 12:41 Comment From DannyAre arm injuries are random or are some organizations better at minimizing arm injuries and the need for TJ surgery? Braves are sending Medlen and Beachy for their 2nd… 12:42 Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it’s a little hard to tell. We know that some teams have fared better, but it looks an awful lot like a random distribution to me. 12:42 Dan Szymborski: When it comes down to it, the best way to see what players can handle a workload is just to throw them at it and see who breaks. 12:43 Dan Szymborski: Which is kind of a shitty thing, if you think about it. 12:43 Comment From davidHi Dan, sorry about the quick trigger. Cigriani or Gray – who do you like this year and future? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: More comfortable than Gray 12:43 Comment From JeremyDoes Brandon Belt have another gear? Or is he more of an Allen Craig-style hitter with middle-of-the-road power but good bat skills otherwise, making him a good real-life 1B but a mid-pack fantasy one? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: I think his park’s always going to hurt him in fantasy 12:43 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s headed for the top tier in fantasy. 12:43 Comment From KJYour theory on what happened to flight 370? 12:44 Dan Szymborski: The plane crashed. 12:44 Comment From GuestIs Zach Britton pitching himself into the closer’s role in Baltimore this year? 12:44 Dan Szymborski: Hunter’s getting first dibs. I’m still not convinced the O’s dont’ trade him – a few teams are suddenly pretty desperate for any starting pitcher that isn’t frigging horrible. 12:45 Comment From RedWhat would you think about Schoop starting the season in the majors? I didn’t think it was a possibility but things seem to be shaping up that way. 12:45 Dan Szymborski: I like him more than Flaherty. I think that if you put the best players on the field, Schoop is the second baseman. 12:45 Comment From toot tootIs there any benefit to the dbacks pushing bradley to the bigs to start this year that outweighs the loss of service time? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: I certainly don’t thin kthe difference between Delgado and Bradley would be worth it. The issue will be if there are more injuries in the hopper! 12:46 Comment From arno idea when to draft kendrys. thoughts? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Stay out of that quagmire if you can. He doesn’t even have a team and there are too many reports that he’s waiting until June. 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, you coudl grab him at the back end, but there are always more interesting guys than him 12:46 Comment From Rated Rookie2B is a bit of a–not black hole exactly, but not far off–weak spot. Better to roll the dice on Schoop or Rendon? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Rendon 12:47 Comment From PercyWhich pitcher benefited the most from his team’s defense in 2013? 12:47 Dan Szymborski: Completely off the cuff, I’ll go with Ervin Santana 12:48 Comment From Sloppy JoeBullish or bearish on Doumit’s projected ABs (zips = 455) 12:48 Dan Szymborski: Bearish 12:48 Comment From ChrisAny advice for a 1st time ottoneu guy in 4×4? My Draft is Friday kinda feel over prepared. 12:49 Dan Szymborski: I haven’t yet played ottoneu, so it would be a bit presumptuous to give ottoneu advice 12:49 Comment From ChrisDoes Arizone end up trading Didi or sending him to AAA? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: I think they likely keep Didi 12:49 Comment From MiguelWhat are your thoughts on Jonathan Gray 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Hey, hey, Jonathan Gray, you could play in the majors today. 12:50 Comment From DanAm I crazy offering Lucroy and Sergio Romo for Danny Salazar in a DMB league when I also have Yan Gomes? I feel like gambling on number 1 when healthy upside. 12:51 Dan Szymborski: It’s not completely insane if you’r ecomfortable at catcher. The saves aren’t an issue in DMB, after all. 12:51 Comment From GuestIt appears Taylor Jordan has won the 5th spot in the Nats rotation. He’s starting Wednesday and Ross Detwiler is pitching out of the bullpen for only one inning. Right choice? 12:51 Dan Szymborski: I’d probably be a little more risk-averse if I’m the Nationals, given their position, and go with Detwiler first 12:52 Dan Szymborski: Though if I’m not mistaken, didn’t ZiPS have Detwiler and Jordan super close? 12:52 Dan Szymborski: That’s right, I’m asking third parties what my projection system said. 12:52 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, ZiPS has them nearly identical. 12:52 Comment From BJPWhat types of baseball questions do you feel most/ least qualified to answer ? 12:53 Dan Szymborski: I like to think I’m qualified to answer a lot of stuff. 12:53 Dan Szymborski: Least qualified, individual personalities. 12:54 Comment From GuestI’m struggling to write the appraisal for one of my team members. Any advice on what I could list as his three key strengths? 12:54 Dan Szymborski: Sticktoitiveness 12:54 Dan Szymborski: Egalitarianism 12:54 Dan Szymborski: Has never murdered a co-worker. 12:54 Comment From GaryReports seem to be that Kemp is looking pretty good. Do you see him having a big year? 12:54 Dan Szymborski: If he’s healthy, it’s a possibility. Not sure I want to bank on that. 12:54 Dan Szymborski: Oh and going back to questions, if we do the most/least that I *like* to answer. 12:55 Dan Szymborski: I like questions that deal with wider concepts. 12:55 Dan Szymborski: While I hate questions that consist of “rank these 5 random guys on my fantsay team” 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Because really, nobody else in the chat is wondering “Hey, in what order would I rank Leonys Martin, Jayson Werth, Brett Gardner, and Christian yelich?” 12:56 Comment From SheffThere seems to be a big divide in opinion regarding how much playing time Josmil pinto will get this year? How much playing time do you project him for? 12:56 Dan Szymborski: I actually think he starts in the minors to work on defense. 12:56 Dan Szymborski: The Twins signed Suzuki and unelss something has changed, they seemed determined to start him 12:57 Dan Szymborski: I think it’s kind of silly to have Pinto sitting on the bench if you’re not starting him. 12:58 Comment From SheffHow do you see the white sox catcher situation playing out? Do you see phegley getting more than 300 ABs this season? 12:58 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Sox even know. I expect Phegley to get significant playing time though. 12:58 Comment From JimCan you give me one bold prediction about the Jays as a team or an individual Jays player? 12:58 Dan Szymborski: At the end of the year, the Blue Jays will look at their rotation and not regret not having landed Ervin Santana. 12:58 Comment From GaryJurickson Profar has never really put up great numbers in the minors. Why is everyone so high on him? 12:58 Dan Szymborski: Those *are* great numbers for a very young middle infielder. 12:59 Dan Szymborski: A shortstop putting up a better than .800 OPS in AA at 19? In AAA at 20? Those *are* great numbers. 1:00 Dan Szymborski: To suggest they’re not is like being a 16-year-old rich kid that gets mad because their birthday present was only a new Toyota Camry. 1:00 Dan Szymborski: Jokingly, I’m not actually suggesting you’re a spoiled brat. 1:00 Comment From KevinSolid strategy to draft power guys like EE/Stanton/Harper/Trumbo and pair them with B. Hamilton to absorb his lack of any power numbers? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: It can work, but I always suggest not to get too hung up on a strategy. Rigidity will kill you in a draft, because the other owners aren’t all going to act how you want them too 1:01 Comment From KonnorWho do you like more for this year, and for long term, Marcus Semien or Jonathan Schoop? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: About the same, honestly. 1:01 Comment From Bagwells BeardDo you think George Springer is of the same mold as BJ Upton? 1:01 Dan Szymborski: It’s not a bad comp. 1:02 Comment From GlopAre you at all bullish on Hutchison, Carrasco, Kaz or H Santiago outperforming preseason expectations? 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Yes, Slightly, Maybe, No 1:03 Comment From GuestNick Franklin to the tigers? 1:03 Dan Szymborski: He’s not a great fit in terms of what the Mariners can get back. 1:04 Dan Szymborski: If only they had another starting pitcher to trade, but the idea that the Tigers had an extra starting pitcher and traded him for the Nats #5 prospect is just too crazy 1:04 Comment From Bull MooserPujols or Jose Abreu for 2014? 1:04 Dan Szymborski: Fantasy Abreu, real-life, I’d give Pujols one last chance. 1:04 Comment From baltic foxHoover managed to organize a massive relief drive to feed starving Russians after the Revolution. I’ll take his organizational skills over Wilson’s idealism. That, and the smaller probability that he’d have a stroke while the two were brawling. 1:05 Dan Szymborski: Remember, it’s punching moreso than international cooperation. 1:05 Comment From baltic foxWieters looks to be gone–Boras still wants Mauer type money? Who could use a good defensive catcher who has awful platoon splits? Bowden at ESPN thinks Texas. 1:05 Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me cry! 1:05 Comment From "Rub some dirt on it" guyWhy in the world does Jose Iglesias have shin splints? Is he 52 years old? Has he been jogging on asphalt too much? Maybe some new running shoes? 1:05 Dan Szymborski: Actually this morning, diagnosed as stress fractures in both legs. 1:05 Comment From ThomasIn regards to your evaluation of the Braves’s 26th pick being worth $20M in value…. 1:06 Dan Szymborski: I stand by it. My valuation is higher for two reasons. 1:06 Dan Szymborski: One, I count the marginal contributions that some of the failed prospects would have made at the MLB level from their high minors performances (generally minimal) 1:06 Dan Szymborski: And I used the actual salaries, nto the projected arbitration ones, and farther for long-term deals. 1:07 Dan Szymborski: As a whole, long-term contracts for pre-FA players has paid off *handsomely* for teams. 1:07 Dan Szymborski: And part of the payoff for those jackpot draft picks is the *chance* that you can sign them past FA. 1:08 Dan Szymborski: Most young star players aren’t going to sign Longoria-esque contracts, but there’s at least a chance they do, and it’s a chance that a team *not* drafting the player doesn’t get 1:08 Comment From FlaccoStoleMyGirlFriendUgh…don’t answer my last question! Ignore it. Do you think Nick Franklin should be a trade option for the O’s? If so, you must believe that his improvement over Schoop current\future is more than negligible as the piece used to acquire would have more than negligible value? 1:09 Dan Szymborski: Franklin’s probably not a fit. I prefer him to Schoop, but as you imply, I’m not sure Franklin’s improvement *over* Schoop is all taht exciting. 1:09 Dan Szymborski: The Mariners could eventually have better partenrs. 1:09 Comment From RotoLandoJelly, Jam, Preserves or Marmalade? 1:09 Dan Szymborski: Jam tomorrow and yesterday, but never today. Today, preserves. 1:10 Comment From DaveDo you think having an extreme park ala Oakland or Colorado help or hurt a team? 1:10 Dan Szymborski: Has the potential to do both. 1:10 Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggymad props on the red facial hair #redbeards 1:10 Dan Szymborski: But the thing is, it makes no sense. I have blonde hair on top of my head, red facial hair, and brown chest hair 1:11 Dan Szymborski: I also have inappropriate short legs. It’s a pain being 5’11” with a 29 inch inseam. 1:11 Dan Szymborski: God made me of all the spare parts in the remainder bin! 1:11 Comment From Tims NeighborWould you ever play in a ZIPS-based sim league if invited? 1:11 Dan Szymborski: No. 1:12 Comment From Under the Table and DreamingDMB – Dave Matthews Band? 1:12 Dan Szymborski: Dave Matthews Baseball 1:12 Comment From Co-founder of the USSMariner.comwhy do all FG writers use * * instead of ” ” 1:12 Dan Szymborski: Guh? 1:13 Comment From SchiraldiA more conceptual question. When a player is coming off his rookie season in the majors, does ZiPs weight his one big league season more heavily than it would the most recent season for a ten year veteran, because the minor league data is less predictive of big league performance? Or is the most recent season weighted the same, no matter whether at what level the previous seasons took place? (I am wondering whether Jean Segura, for instance, might be overrated by the projection systems for this reason.) 1:13 Dan Szymborski: It weighs it *slightly* more. 1:13 Comment From ZachDo you think there’s such a thing as too much of a good thing in fantasy? I’ve got C Davis, G Stanton, and J Bruce on my keeper team. A lot of home runs, but a lot of risk in the avg too. The rest of my lineup is C Santana, J Kipnis, C Headley, J Segura, J Heyward and B Belt. Is there enough balance on this team offensively? 1:13 Dan Szymborski: No, there’s no such thing as too much of a good thing. Because you can trade your surplus good thing, if it’s actually a good thing. There’s no fantasy equivalent of diabetes or gout. 1:13 Comment From RodelIs it stupid to draft Carlos Santana and play him at 1st or third instead of Catcher? 1:14 Dan Szymborski: It’s risky – he doesn’t have 3B qualification *yet* in most leagues. I’d still want him as a catcher primarily. 1:14 Comment From DBHector Santiago is putting an emphasis on his screwball this spring training, and so far the results are encouraging. Could the new team and updated arsenal mean new fantasy life for Hector? 1:15 Dan Szymborski: I wish we had historical data, but I suspect that screwballs are less effective than they were 20-30 years ago. It certainly *seems* that while players aren’t throwing straight screwballs, there are a lot more pitches with that kind of fadeaway mvoement. 1:15 Comment From Sgt. PepperGerman, Polish and Russian? That must be awkward at family reunions. 1:15 Dan Szymborski: Luckily, no family reunions. 1:16 Dan Szymborski: Let’s put it this way, I’m directly related to both Holocaust victims and Holocaust perpetrators. 1:16 Comment From GSonshort inseam = eastern european 1:16 Dan Szymborski: I didn’t know that being the world’s tallest little person was an ethnic thing. 1:17 Comment From Swing and a Miss PuiggyI’m Scottish/Irish/some sort of Scandanavian and have the red facial hair/blondish actual hair and brown-black body hair thing too….Variety is the spice of life! 1:17 Comment From Co-founder of the USSMariner.comRE: the quoation marks. on hutchinson u said, hes not *this* good, where i would say hes not “this” good 1:17 Dan Szymborski: Usenet thing. There was no text formatting, so we’d put ** when we *really* wanted to bold something. 1:18 Dan Szymborski: Others probably picked it up from Cameron then. Like me, he’s an old usenet guy. 1:18 Comment From GuestAnibal Sanchez scratched from today’s game with shoulder inflammation…the same one he had labrum issues with. 1:18 Dan Szymborski: No es bueno! 1:18 Comment From Vilnius B.hey I’m Lithuanian and I have a long inseam! And, like you, I have Polish and German blood as well as some distant contributions from Swedes. The armies of these ethnic groups crossed each other’s lands a lot in the last 500 yrs. 1:19 Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to shuffle off this digital coil for another week. 1:20 Dan Szymborski: As always, you can find various Szymborski-related things at ESPN.com (I’m a jack-of-all-trades there) and chats and projections at FanGraphs and at DSzymborski on Twitter. 1:20 Dan Szymborski: So until next week, fill the glasses with treacle and ink and cover the table in buttons and bran. 1:20 Dan Szymborski: And celebrate the winner of this week’s #ElectoralBrawllege match: Herbert Hoover.