Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/17/17

Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s get the party going.

bl27: walk issue will be a problem for Blake Snell ? Similar to Edinson Volquez early in his career

Dan Szymborski: Given his minor league walk rates, I expect it to be his weakness.

DEF: Wait, today is only Wednesday? This week is really dragging.

Dan Szymborski: FRIDAY

Dr Morris: What do the D-backs know about Mitch Haniger that the rest of the world (and the world’s projection systems) don’t? On paper he’s at least an average-plus RF and he’s murdering the ball in ST.

Dan Szymborski: Well, if htey know something that nobody else does, I’m part of the nobody else!

Dan Szymborski: I do think people are going to a little overboard with some of the Haniger stuff. I think he’ll be decnet, but let’s not go crazy

mario mendoza: I always enjoy looking at the ZiPS likelihood of outcomes. Will you be releasing a google docs ZiPS build similar to last year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

hjrrockies: did you see your seed in the #RockiesTwitterBracket?

Dan Szymborski: I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A 4

Dan Szymborski: No higher since I’m not a Rockies specific writer.

Dan Szymborski: Though I think I’m toast since Rockies fans don’t like me.

The Oriole Bird: If you were a GM, which would you prefer to have for same long-term deal: C. Correa or C. Seager?

Dan Szymborski: Correa, but this is a beer or tacos question.

DEF: Any update on when the Zips spreadsheet with splits and D will be posted? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: When it’s up.

Matt: A Taco is really just an open-face burrito. What say you, Szymborski?

Dan Szymborski: Depends.

Fangraphist: More lamentable: Colin Kapernick’s decision to kneel during national anthem or the lack of a white teammate to kneel with him?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t comment on political issues.

Rob: What is your feeling on Javier Baez’s chances of earning a full time gig this year? If he does, what would you expect from him? I feel like he’s got a good chance at being a 20/20 guy if he gets the playing time.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll carve out a de facto full-time gig.

STiVo: As always, there are repeat commercials in this year’s NCAA tournament TV coverage. I need you to settle my internal debate: Is that LG knock-on refrigerator thing a terrible idea or a cool idea? (My concern is that in a household of 4, the knocking would be ridiculously annoying. And I’m not sure that the benefit is very high.) So I guess I’m not even really internally debating. Problem solved. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the problem it solves. For people who have no idea what is in their fridge?

Phil: What should the Pirates do with Austin Meadows??

Dan Szymborski: I think Cutch is eventually traded.

britishcub: For the lightning round: have you played the new torment game? Personally I loved it

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t. (No Lightning Round)

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Oh look, Dan finally shows up…

Dan Szymborski: YESTERDAY CARSON FORGOT ABOUT ME

Fado: If Jose Molina wanted a nickname like “A-Rod”, how would you let him down easy?

Dan Szymborski: Mo-Mo J. Funk

Pedro Cerrano: Dan – What are your thoughts on leaving Wheeler and Harvey down in extended spring training and giving Gsellman/Lugo the 4&5 spots? Then bring up the 2 formers in July for a playoff run.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t see the point unless you feel they’re not ready

britishcub: Is spring training more than daily checking that no one on your team is injured? That’s all I get out of it

Dan Szymborski: ITS BASEBALL. Outside of that it’s not a big deal.

Carson Cistulli: Dan Szymborski, making his weekly Wednesday appearance but on a Friday. So tell me, Dan Szymborski, would you perhaps be willing- or perhaps unwilling to declare that Nick Markakis is, for all intents and purposes, the greatest ballplayer, insofar that you measure greatness by how much you loathe said player?

Hank: Yasiel Puig has exceeded 400 AB’s one time in his 5 year major league career. Zips has his projections at 541AB’s. Zips also has him getting a career high in HR/RBI, which would make sense if he’s able to get those AB’s. Do you personally believe we will see a career year out of Yasiel Puig this season?

Dan Szymborski: A career year? No.

Dan Szymborski: He’s been lousy enough lately that you can’t expect him to beat his early performance.

STiVo: Are you on the Bundy bandwagon?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Ghost of Greg Maddux Past: Tony Blengino seems to think Markakis’ exit velos and launch angles indicated he may have been better than his stats indicated last year. Does a 110 wRC+ strike you as crazy? His defense in 2016 was also better by UZR and DRS than it was in 2015. Anything to that or just a one-year blip?

Dan Szymborski: Color me skeptical, given his age.

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : I have tried endlessly to convince my family why trading Quintana is absolutely necessary, to no avail. What does Quintana look like in 2019? Is there any argument at all for keeping him?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be good but the expectation for a pitcher on the top of his game in the future is *always* lesser.

Dan Szymborski: White Sox are taking a huge risk by waiting for deadline or later.

Ghost of Greg Maddux Past: Is there a hitter or pitcher prospect type that you think gets systematically underrated by scouts?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re generally a lot better than they used to be.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t see quite the same hate as there used to be for short players.

AgaveOtter: Thoughts on Hearthstone news: price increase, new expansion, and do you think game has hit peak and now on the downslope (lots of streamers seem to be dabbling in other CCGs)?

Dan Szymborski: It ebbs and flows (and the dollar is stronger relative to EU than when the prices)

Matt: ZiPS has Lorenzo Cain posting his worst rate stats (AVG, OBP, SLG) since 2013. Even in his injury riddled down year last year, he did better than that. Explain yo’self.

Dan Szymborski: Well one, it’s not really because ZiPS has a lower league-aveage than FG does.

Dan Szymborski: And two, he’s at the worst decline/improve age he’s been ever.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a declining asset at this point, only question is when. Time always wins.

gump: Know this isn’t your forte, but what do you think about this way of getting around international spending limits:

Salary your minor leaguers!

Teams regularly spent 15+ million in INT before the limits, this would cost 5 million. The FA would be getting hundreds of thousands of dollars more than your competitors would be able to offer, and it wouldn’t affect your pool.

Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: If it’s obviously to get around the pool, the commish will step in.

Hank: Who is your pick to win the NCAA tournament?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have one – I’m least connected with NCAA basketball as basically ever

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : What is the nastiest pitch you have ever seen? Video if possible.

Dan Szymborski: Nothing is as nasty as a knuckleball fluttering just right!

Steve: Tacos have a higher ceiling than burritos but burritos have a higher floor.

Mike: Does ZIPS take into account pitcher’s home/road splits against park factors? Asking as Jon Gray pitches at home in Coors but his home splits were much better than road splits last year. Is the projection system still penalizing him for the Coors park factor?

Dan Szymborski: Very, very slightly over a very long period.

Dan Szymborski: Generic park splits are *FAR* more predictive of a player’s future park splits than the player’s previous park splits.

Dan Szymborski: Home/road stats are EXTREMELY noisy.

Dan Szymborski: You can’t simply assume a guy having 13 starts each in two parks pitched to the same level in both chunks against equal competition and the difference is primarily PF. It isn’t

Dan Szymborski: And if you take actual home/road splits too seriously, you’ll kill your model. It’s not predcitive enough.

tip tipson : Whats your thoughts on Josh Bell this year and going fwd? Can he be a “Real” hitter and make up for his poor D.

Dan Szymborski: I’m honestly skeptical he’ll really be a good 1B overall.

Dan Szymborski: There’s just something underwhelming about his minor league power.

Dan Szymborski: He *feels* like a guy that should be hitting for more.

Dan Szymborski: But there’s a part of me that just thinks of him as a poor defensive lesser Mark Grace.

Heading for the Hills: What does Colorado bullpen look like now with Holland’s recent outing? Newest closer? Ottavina newest setup man. Or dreaded closer by committee?

Dan Szymborski: I think Holland will start the season as the closer

Steve: Anthony Rendon seems kind of forgotten after 2015. Rebounded with a nice 2016, any more room for improvement?

Dan Szymborski: There’s still some – he’s had a lot of injuries in his career and doesn’t have the same experience as lots of players his age.

Ned Yost: Yay or nay on the Carlos Beltran bleached beard?

Dan Szymborski: He should go the Hollywood Hogan route rather than the Big Poppa Pump route.

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: All the wavy bacon in the Team USA logo is going straight to my thighs

Incredulity: Why has BOS not cut bait on Rusney?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t save them anything, so might as well see what he can do.

baby bull : enjoyed your trip back through 90’s baseball video games, did you have a favorite? Mine was Triple Play Baseball

Dan Szymborski: Baseball Stars still through most of the 90s! And the Tony La Russa games.

baby bull : how does FG make sure 2 writers arent writing same post? Is there a company wide group chat where writers call dibbs?

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea.

Hank: I love watching Javier Baez play, but people thinking he’s a superstar with the bat are out of their minds. The guy has a major contact problem. He ran a .314 OBP with 108 K’s and 15 BB’s last season. He has a 7:1 K to BB ratio. That is not good.

Dan Szymborski: With enough power, an infielder wiht a contact problem can be a star.

Matt: Do you think anybody who has a legitimately terrible life has a real case against LG for false advertising?

Dan Szymborski: IANAL

Bob: Keep one for next 2 years: Moncada, Paxton, Margot. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Moncada

Mt Lebo Blue Devil: Is JP Crawford starting for the phils by July?

Dan Szymborski: I hope so

Guest : Whose greatness is more obvious, AJ Styles or Mike Trout?

Dan Szymborski: Styles is more obvious. Trout’s just so awesome that nothing he does looks hard.

baby bull : Justin Upton hits righties better than lefties, at least last year. Do you think this means he like hitting curve/slider better than changeup?

Dan Szymborski: It’s closer than it used to be thanks to the last two years, but again, it’s very dangerous to draw conclusions from a year or two of split data.

Dan Szymborski: Especially when you have actually data against actual pitches, a better idea than relying on extremely noisy stats.

Matt: _______ : Hamburgers :: Nick Markakis : Baseball….I say “beef”. What say you?

Dan Szymborski: What burgers are a meme here every weak?

Dan Szymborski: week

Steve: What kind of park factors are used in the ZiPS projections?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball.

Dan: Man. A friday Chat?

Greg: Skeptical is not a color

Dan Szymborski: I am Skeptical (Green)

baby bull : is Microsoft Excel a better software than any CP Video Game?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Dan: Szym, gonna do the Zips request spreadsheet or the 2016 MLE spreadsheet, or the expanded 2017 Zips spreadsheet this year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Probably set that up this weekend.

brad: Who would you rather have long term Quintana or Hamels?

Dan Szymborski: Quintana, assuming I already *have* him (contract situ)

baby bull : Does Wil Myers still hold intercontinental belt? are your WWE Divas USA softball players?

Dan Szymborski: Big Show has it now. Myers is feuding with Bo Dallas.

Wick: Why on earth are the Jays going into the season with Justin “Strikeout” Smoak on first?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe there’s some government program that subsidizes the Jays for employing lousy players?

Mt Lebo Blue Devil: Average Exit velo seems to favor players who whiff a lot, since there is no penalty for whiffing but there is one for weak contact. Is it safe to assume teams adjust for this in their valuations?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Jeff: Can you explain how ZiPS playing time predictions work? I noticed Posey gets 512 PA but has averaged 600+ last three years.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a catcher, there’s always a year-on-year risk.

Jim: Projections seem to love Thames this year. You buying it?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t call “slightly below-average” as love, at least in ZiPS.

Dan: who would you put in a Nation of Domination 2.0 ? I think none of the New Day guys work as “angry.” My suggestions would be Mark Henry (veteran) Titus O’Neill and Apollo Crews (young guys stagnating) and Noam Dar (white/Jewish ally with black GF) with angry preacher D-Von Dudley managing. Anyone else you’d consider/thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to just stay out of that whole revival as there would be so much cringe.

Von Schloss: Rays with a potential future rotation featuring Archer, Snell, Honeywell & De Leon. Are you buying?

Dan Szymborski: It’s at least interesting.

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : Avisail Garcia tearing it up in spring just like the last year. Why is he still in the big leagues? My guess is it’s the striking resemblance to Miggy. He also hits the ball REALLY hard once every 15 games. He’s an enigma.

Dan Szymborski: It actually *IS* that he looks like Cabrera.

Zack: Why do some of your followers have this obsession with Nick Markakis? Isn’t he just a 35 year old AAAA player?

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea.

Dan: What non-Zipsed interesting people in the WBC (outside of Japanese/Cuban guys) do you think would project well, and also what guys do you think could get by. Marquis certainly looked capable of organizational depth, and Zeid as a 1970s style swingman, just from Israel.

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to actually run the projections.

Dan Szymborski: There’s some NPB WBC roster projections going up

Keith Hernandez: ZIPS says no, but – True or False? Jose Reyes is a 2.5 win player this year

Dan Szymborski: False. Nobody *is* a 2.5 win player this year because 0 regular season games have happened.

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think he will be. Jose Reyes is not very good anymore.

Alex: Have you played Far Cry Primal? I hated it for the first ~10 hours or so but am really getting into t.

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Carson Cistulli: I do have a serious inquiry for you, Dan Szymborski. Would you say that Daniel Norris has a statistically meaningful chance to develop- only insofar to the chance that any starting pitcher has – into an above average starting pitcher? What are you expectations for him?

Dan Szymborski: I think he does clearly. He was actually quite solid in 2016 remember!

Matt: Is JP Crawfords offensive profile enough to make him fantasy relevant? For a long time he was a glove-first prospect, but the last year and a half or so, that bat seemed to break out a little.

Dan Szymborski: Fantasy? A little tough.

Dan: How jelly are you that I saw Brock Lesnar live (squashing KO in 90 seconds.) MSG cards are ridiculous.

saditude: Do you take pleasure, aside from your work, in just watching baseball games? I’m not trying to be snide – perhaps a better way to ask is: would you watch baseball as part of leisure downtime?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Technically, I don’t *have* to watch as many games as I do to do my job.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got three screens in my office and it’s not like I regularly report on the in-game things.

gump: If you paid all your minor leaguers equally, how would the commish be able to say you were going around the rules? It would be like saying you team was unilaterally submitting higher arbitration numbers- is that against the rules?

I suspect the only response would be to cap minor league salaries similar to the major league cap.

Dan Szymborski: Depends how it goes about.

The Oriole Bird: Trey Mancini career WAR over/under: 0.1?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say over, as he’s probably better than that a year. Though not a top prospect even remotely

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Better nickname: Lance in the Pants McCullers or Kevlar (Kevin Pillar)?

Dan Szymborski: I like the former.

Henry: Do you think Evan Longoria will be traded this year? and to who?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan: Can you do ZIPS probabilities for various players leading the Padres pitchers in WAR? I think there is a 20+% probability Capps leads the Pads. I think there is a non-zero chance Buddy Baumann leads the Pads in WAR. Hell, if De Paula started the year in the bigs, HE could lead the Pads in WAR.

Dan Szymborski: I *could* but I’d have to either think about setting it up before the projections or need a good reason to run ’em again so I can save that.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Why do people answer ‘yes’ to a multiple choice question?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Henry: What’re your expectations for Jose Berrios this year?

Dan Szymborski: I remain constantly optimistic.

Dan: How do you feel that about 25% of hopper questions in your chats are about pro wrestling? Feature, not bug?

Dan Szymborski: A little confused

Stankel: G Polanco over Cutch, Cespedes, J Upton, Matt Kemp?

Dan Szymborski: Are we talking fantasy or real baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Fantasy, it’s hard to get Polanco value.

Alex: Does Junior Lake win the MVP this year?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to have to say no.

Fangraphist: More lamentable: Your decision not to answer political questions or my decision to ask one?

Dan Szymborski: Yours.

Hank: Do you think we see Jose Bautista at 1B more this season? I mean, Smoak isn’t very good, and Bautista has had arm trouble in the past. I just want to see someone run into him and have his stare them down.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe a *little* but probably not regularly.

Matt: What are the odds Tanaka *doesn’t* opt out? (Assume full health this season)

Dan Szymborski: I suspect he opts out, though it may depend on who *really* ends up hitting FA

Dan Szymborski: If Arietta/Darvish re-sign before the season ends, he’s got a bit more incentive to opt out

RAGS: Will Waino ever be a thing again or is he cooked?

Dan Szymborski: I’m worried

Matt: Did you hear about the accident between a truck full of strawberries and a truck full of sugar on the highway? It caused a jam….

Dan Szymborski: Banned.

Matt: Thanks Dan. Travis made fun of me for calling McCullers Lance in the Pants.

Just a Dude with Synesthesia: Skeptical is more a mahogany tone for me.

John: What’s the history of relief pitchers’ performances the year they come back from Tommy John? How risky is it to expect Capps to pick up where he left off?

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers really do have pretty good long-term outlooks from TJ, both starters and relievers.

Matt: Chasen Shreve – big league pitcher, or euphemism for hitting the bars to try to get laid?

Jerj Clooners: Was Cistulli too busy napping to set up the chat yesterday?

Dan Szymborski: More likely eating babies.

Hank: Best current pitcher in the AL?

Dan Szymborski: Sale

Dan: Over under on number of green beers you drink today? Same with pounds of stereotypical Irish foods? Basically, come midnight, will you be more corned beef than man?

Dan Szymborski: 0

Bruce Bocce: Should I be concerned that Kiermaier has a bucket of k’s this spring after improving those rates last season?

Dan Szymborski: Not yet.

PD: Is there anything more un-American than Meals on Wheels?

Dan Szymborski: Meals on Light Rail?

G Money: will Travis Wood’s projection be updated to reflect the likelihood that he’ll start a few games this season?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not.

Smally Bigs: Is this the year Tim Tebow finally breaks out?

Dan Szymborski: No

Bruce Bocce: Are the O’s about to sign Ryan Howard and train him to play a terrible corner OF?

Dan Szymborski: Please no.

Quinten: Would you rather have Yasiel Puig or Matt Harvey *this season*?

Dan Szymborski: Harvey I think.

Matt: Tell me more about your sandwich spread sheet. Is it just a randomizer? Or do you put all sandwiches you’ve ever eaten before in it as historical data, and when you pick a topping, it picks the most liekyl other ingredients?

Dan Szymborski: Just a randomizer.

Hank: Is Jorge Soler going to break many a fantasy players heart this season, or will he reward those that continue to believe?

Dan Szymborski: Soler’s going to need to be healthy *and* good for some period to get me back ont eh bandwagon.

Dan Szymborski: When you look at it, the “healthy and good” part of Soler’s resume is *really* small.

Rick: Cat update?

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio’s sleeping on my legs, don’t know where the other two are.

Dan: Uhm, the hilarity of the Pads pitching situation isn’t reason enough? You can set the zips generation to Benny Hill music and post in on youtube.

Baby Bomber: Greg Bird at his best will be (insert player here)esque

Dan Szymborski: Michael Keaton.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan: Mega no-hit defensive studs in MiLB with the potential to be beasts if they can just get close to their positional average with the bat? I feel like, for instance Michael De Leon is young enough and far enough away that it’s not impossible he becomes an 80 wRC+ guy.

Dan Szymborski: Not sure if I’d call him no-hit (though the line isn’t crazy for the Cal league remotely), but Jose Trevino could be awesome if he hits at all

Aubrey Huff’s Agent: Hey Dan, do you know anyone in the Orioles’ front office I can call? I know someone who would be a great backup-backup outfielder to Pedro Alvarez.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but I’m not telling you if you’re going to do evil.

Hank: Green Beer is just beer with green food coloring in it. Bartenders hate you when you order a green beer.

Mike: Are you more impressed with King Felix or Smyly during the USA/Venezuela game earlier this week?

Dan Szymborski: Smyly

G Money: G Money
2:45 will Travis Wood’s projection be updated to reflect the likelihood that he’ll start a few games this season? why not??

Dan Szymborski: I don’t reshuffle projections for every minor uesage change.

STiVo: I feel like there’s a great story just waiting to be told about the parents of both Rougned Odors.

Matt:

Slew: Why would bartenders hate you for ordering green beer? Why would they care what you drink?

Dan Szymborski: Professional craft.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like being the DJ and everyone requests Nickelback.

Slew: Why does Zips project 541 ABs for Puig? Large amounts of regression?

Dan Szymborski: Players tend to regress towards mostly healthy, especially younger players.

Matt: What are your thoughts on Byung Ho. Maybe it’s just because I was big on him last offseason, but I feel like that power can be harnessed. Semi related – would Joey Gallo put up Byung Ho-esque numbers in the KBO?

Dan Szymborski: Gallo would do well in KBO or NPB

Dan Szymborski: As for Park, he should be a 1B or DH for a rebuilding team without anything better to do. Try to catch lightning in ab ottle and all that.

Dan: What’s more offensive? Ordering green beer, or the fact that I basically never ever drink.

Dan Szymborski: The teetotaling unless you have a physical condition or a problem! Alcohol is terrific.

Cubs Fan: I’ve seen a lot of talk here by other commenters on how the Cubs will break up playing time. Living in Chicago, hearing management talk about it… basically Bryant, Russell, and Rizzo are the only everyday players. Heyward’s time depends on his bat. Schwarber playing catcher is not a priority… think of one appearance every 2-3 weeks/emergency situations. Baez, Zobrist, Schwarber about 500PA each, rotated in and out. Jay/Almora depending on performance/platoon splits. Contreras 120 games at catcher, Montero backup, Schwarber emergency. Players are going to get injured. Maddon wants to keep everybody healthy. Plenty of playing time for everybody.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, things happen.,

Dan Szymborski: Look at Tony Phillips first decade.

Matt: Dan, I disagree with you. I don’t think that things happen. Ever.

Dan: Why do the Fld numbers on FG Zips differ from the Fielding values on individual player pages. Are the former positional value adjusted?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a general wider problem, both for FG and BR, in which it’s not always clear where the defensive penalty is taken into consideration and where it isn’t

Dan Szymborski: I always express relative to positional average.

Dan Szymborski: For FLD

Dan Szymborski: on player pages, it’s usually DEF

Dan Szymborski: If memory serves.

Dan Szymborski: And as we hit 3, it’s time for me to take off! Thanks for coming everyone and following me to the Friday!

Dan Szymborski: You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at Fangraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.

Buddy: Can Danny Duffy lead be a legitimate ace for a thin Royals rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. He’s already been one, so he can be one again!