Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 3/22/17

Dan Szymborski: It’s party time!

Dan Szymborski: And heads up – yes, platoon splits and DMB stuff will be posted. My work baseball preview stuff comes before that.

Dan Szymborski: And no, I won’t give you an exact date and time, guy who asked variations on this question about 15 times last week.

Druidiful: Dan, are you going to actually have your regularly scheduled Wednesday chat on a Wednesday?

Dan Szymborski: It’s weird, isn’t it?

Jim: Delino Deshields could do what with 600 at bats leading off for the Rangers?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, w hat? Be really meh?

Jim: Do you see Willie Calhoun sticking at 2B and what kind of player comp would you put on the bat? Odor?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if he will, but I think it’s in the team’s interest to give him every opportunity.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe a low BA odor?

The Rookies: Top 5 minor league callups who will make a difference in fantasy leagues are:

Dan Szymborski: Have a piece coming up in April on this!

Terry: Aaron Nola or Lucas Giolito and why?

Dan Szymborski: I like Nola a lot, but Giolito has higher upside.

Gypsy Father: So, will Brock Holt! continue to be spelled “Brock Holt!”?

Dan Szymborski: Of course. I have standards, after all.

Jason: Anything left for Devin Mesoraco or am I just wasting my team believing in him?

Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical, but when a guy has talent, it’s hard to not believe inhim and hope he can be healthy.

The Roto : How do you approach a standard 5 x 5 15 team roto differently as opposed to a H2h when you’ve the first pick? Any players after the first 10 rounds you’d really target?

Dan Szymborski: Personally, I almost entirely play roto-style instead of H2H, so I’m not the best for that one.

The Other Dan: Hey Dan, first time long time. What are the nats really going to do with their closer situation? Committee or am I lookin at Shawn Kelley?

Dan Szymborski: I still think Kelley gets first shot, but they’ll go off him quickly and I think they’ll be fairly flexible.

Dan Szymborski: So I wouldn’t *count* on more than 30

Jeet: If Pineda has a sub 4 ERA season do the Yankees make a playoff run?

Dan Szymborski: They’re close enough to make a playoff run either way. But a good Pineda season certainly limits that rotation’s downside otherwise.

ResumeMan: A question on stat nomenclature, just out of curiosity. Dan you may not even be the best chatter to ask, but what the heck. If you are looking at OPS and want to see it park-adjusted and normalized to league average, that’s OPS+. Same thing with ERA, you adjust/normalize it and it’s ERA+ (or ERA-). But if you are looking at wOBA and you want to see it league and park adjusted, that’s…wRC+. Any idea how that term got decided upon and why it isn’t just wOBA+? Or is wRC+ fundamentally different from, e.g. OPS+ in a way I’m not aware of?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little weird because of the subtleties of wRC and wRC+

Dan Szymborski: Since wRC is kind of a league-not-park neutral wOBA and there’s not really a direct comparison.

Dan Szymborski: ERA is not league/park adjusted, ERA+ is both. There’s nothing in between.

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure if I had developed those, I would have gone with a different naming scheme.

Logan: Best ever superhero movie?

Dan Szymborski: Batman Forever of course.

Dan Szymborski: OK, maybe not. Dark Knight?

Dan Szymborski: Is Batman really a superhero?

Dan Szymborski: He’s more like a really rich regular hero.

Jerj Clooners: Is Encarnacion and Bregman an overpay for Carlos Correa in a keep 6 OBP league? I could get, for example Carlos Santana with my now unused keeper selection.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it might come down to how liberal your position qualification rules. It’s an overpay if you can get Bregman at short,

The Average Sports Fan: How quickly do you think Moncada is up after the team is able to game his extra year of control?

Dan Szymborski: Oh pretty quickly. The White Sox like to push their guys.

Josh: Enjoying the WBC so far?

Dan Szymborski: Except 11th innings.

Dan Szymborski: WHY ARE THERE RUNNERS

Dan Szymborski: HAVING TO EARN RUNNERS IS LIKE HALF OF BASEBALL

gorillakilla34: Given Morton’s velocity gains across the board, is he a legit #2 SP now?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see him turn it into performance first, but I’m optimistic.

Doug: You a fan of MLB The Show?

Dan Szymborski: Of course, I’m not a dumbass. Well, debatedly.

Gypsy Father: With Freese in the fold, do you see the Bucs using Kang at SS (assuming Freese>Mercer) at all once he’s available?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get *some* time. Freese will be at first some remember.

CJM: Hey Dan, I’ve been working on a fantasy baseball visualization/analysis tool that I was curious to get your opinion on.

What it does is aggregate and weight projection systems (including Zips, Steamer, DepthCharts, and Pecota), and allow users to create their own fantasy leagues with different position/category settings. Given the average weighted means, league settings, and undrafted players for a given league, it will generate percentiles per-player and present a recommended player list (based on a few different metrics, and including positional adjustment), as well as the overall stats for your team and the other teams.

You can see a screenshot here that might make it more clear: http://i.imgur.com/oqeDpKZ.png

It’s 100% open source and not monetized in any way, so I’m just hoping to find an audience that can find it useful! I’d love to chat more about it via email if you have any interest

Dan Szymborski: I assume that’s for everyone to look at?

Dan Szymborski: B/c a chat is a weird place to send a private email!

Dan Szymborski: But I’ll take a look

Chuck: Should the Astros really need to make a move right now for someone like Quintana? Feels like their SP depth is good enough to get them at least to the deadline.

Dan Szymborski: Right now probably not great, simply because the white sox apparently want a gigantic premium to not wait until trade deadline

Dan Szymborski: Every player has a price at which you don’t want them.

Dan Szymborski: DAMMIT

Dan Szymborski: Guys, just email me if it’s something just for me!

Jason: Why dont more teams use platoons? Seems its an easy cheap way to create an advantage at certain positions, especially for small market teams.

Dan Szymborski: Those wacky 13-man pitching staffs kinda kill of platooning.

Dan Szymborski: Because now your bench players have to be more versatile defensively than they would have needed to be a generation ago

Dan Szymborski: Like it’s really hard to carry a platoon 1B right now.

Liberty Bell: Can T.Joseph put up a 30 HR, 85 RBI season starting from day 1?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little aggressive.

botchatheny: should yanks roll with kozma to start the season? he had that big hit that one time

Dan Szymborski: The Great Kozmandias, Look at his OPS ye Mighty, and despair.

Jack: Will Haniger bring enough to start him in a 3 OF, 17-team league pairing him up with Adam Jones & Billy Hamilton?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s too rich for my taste.

gorillakilla34: Do you feel Rowdy Tellez is making the right adjustments to become the next offensive star in TOR? Or is there swing issues that won’t let his game play at the highest levels?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS of course is a big fan!

Dan Szymborski: Actually made the ZiPS top 100 prospects.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing: We already know that Justin Smoak has offensive issues that won’t let his game play at the highest levels.

Dan Szymborski: What kills him with scouts is that he looks *really* awkward defensviely

Dan Szymborski: But the dude is built.

Hank: DMB stands for Dave Matthews Band and Dave Matthews Band only. Don’t mess with DMB fans, they are smelly and high.

Moelicious: Thoughts on Josh Bell? A poor man’s Brandon Belt?

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit bearish on Bell. I’m not sure he’ll ever develop enough power or defense to be really be a huge plus.

Dan Szymborski: You can be a first baseman that sucks defensively. You can be a first baseman that doesn’t hit for a lot of power. But it’s hard to be good when you’re BOTH.

Justin: Thoughts on playing the WBC over the all star break and extending the break much like the NHL does with the Olympics? Or is that pie in the sky, good in theory not in practice

Dan Szymborski: Won’t happen.

Dan Szymborski: Too much of a break and there are a ton of players that would just be taking a month off

Dan Szymborski: or sending them to weird midseason training camp

Rated Rookie: Now that Bird has been named the 1B starter, does his ZiPs projection change any?

Dan Szymborski: No, since ZiPS takes no opinion on future manager playing choices.

Justin: Arent projections for alex bergman too high?

Dan Szymborski: Are they?

12 to 6: Thoughts on the Japanese fans last night? I thought the trumpeters were great.

Dan Szymborski: It would be awesome if we had those instead of stadiums playing That’s What I Call Jock Jacks Vol. 73

Cubs4life: Better worthwhile stash, Honeywell or Conforto?

Dan Szymborski: Conforto if you’re optimistic about Terry Collins. Honeywell if you’re like me and am not.

D: Do you have any thoughts on Trevor Oaks in the Dodgers system, regarding how well he’s looked this Spring? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: He’s recovered very well from TJ surgery.

Dan Szymborski: Wait

Dan Szymborski: Who am I thinking of?

Dan Szymborski: Is Oaks the one that had TJ surgery in college on the roster?

Dan Szymborski: OH man, that was a WHILE ago

Dan Szymborski: Why did I think that was 2014?

Dan Szymborski: Well, anyway, I would expect a full year at AAA really, unless injuries hit. They’re not stretching him out as if he would sneak a rotation job.

Gypsy Father: I get that there’s not gonna be a target date given for the spreadsheet. Paid>>free. Got it. But, let me ask this COMPLETELY UNRELATED question: I generally giggle with glee for about 48 hours after the release – about when will I be able to breathe?

Dan Szymborski: CHEATING

Eric’s counselor: you should have heard Byrnes on MLB radio about 30 minutes ago…..he was really pumped up on US players not playing for team usa..i think they’re out building a gallows for Trout, Harper , Kershaw and Bumgarner for being traitors.

Dan Szymborski: The thing is for the WBC to be *really* top-notch, MLB is going to have to figure out how to get those guys into the game.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m not sure how they do that. Even MLB self-insuring the value of the contracts wouldn’t be enough – the Dodgers rather have the pitcher, after all

Mike : What are good 1B options for Nationals outside of Zimmerman and Lind? Will they be competitive with Werth and Zimmerman in their lineup?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll be competitive despite pretending Werth and Zim are contributors in 2017.

Hans Focker: Is Jose De Leon worth holding onto in a league where Gsellman and Eikhoff are available?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. He’s ina really good situation.

Borkins: Is Cody Reed, Cin going to put it together this season, seems like all he needs to do it have more confidence in his change. ST looked promising (I know, ST doesn’t matter, well not entirely)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS was actually optimistic about him being kinda useful

BK: All things being equal, Kluber or Arrieta?

Dan Szymborski: Kluber, but only because you asked me a really cruel question

Moelicious: Any thoughts as to when Robertson gets dealt?

Dan Szymborski: I thought he would have by now honestly. If he finishes the season in Chicago, something’s gone wrong.

Borkins: Will Ian Happ carve out a role for the Cubs at some point this season? He is mashing in ST.

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky.

Dan Szymborski: The roster is quite tight, he’d need something to happen.

DJ: Curious, what stats/technologies that currently are not as prevalent in baseball ops departments do you believe will be more effective/utilized in the coming years?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think they’re actually doing a really good job these days.

Jason: Is Roman Quinn ever a guy?

Dan Szymborski: Could be a useful role player

Goo: Stock is way down on Giolito. I own him in a dynasty league, but he’s stashed in my minors for now. Should I continue to believe, or should I sell?

Dan Szymborski: Why sell low?

Moltar: Should the Mets employ a 6 man rotation going in to the season? Obviously can readjust if injuries hit, but they’ll need to manage workload somehow and they have 6 capable arms.

Dan Szymborski: If we’re talking Lugo, I’m not a sconfident about him as you are, so no

DJ: Is calling Moncada up quickly necessarily a good idea? Wouldn’t it be optimal to allow him to try and strike out a bit less in the minors?

Dan Szymborski: If he deserves it, push him aggressively. You have to challenge your most talented players.

DCameronLovesBBC: Why does Puerto Rico get its own WBC team when it’s not even a country?

Dan Szymborski: There’s precedent for this kind of thing.

Dan Szymborski: Only fair since MLB kinda screwed them over wiht the draft.

Dan Szymborski: It’s part of the US, but it’s a pseudo-country.

Dan: Dammit Syzm, I have my therapists appointment soon. Check your schedule with me before doing these. Can you please interpret my dreams for me?

Josh: In terms of 11th inning WBC rules, it seems to give a huge advantage to the home team as they get to see whether they have to play for the big inning or can win by just manufacturing a run advancing the guy on second.

Dan Szymborski: If we analyze game with this rule, we normalize it!

Kosch: Forgive me for prying, but I could have sworn you had 5 cats. Last week you only gave an update on 3. Apparently it’s kitten season if you’re looking to increase your clowder.

Dan Szymborski: I had 5 at max. Aurora died in 2012.

Dan Szymborski: Now I’ve had 4 for awhile, but Reagan died very suddenly back in the fall

Dan Szymborski: So I’m at 3 now.

hscer: Tell me why Danny Espinosa won’t be considered the best trade made in the off-season?

Dan Szymborski: Well, he’s also a limited player in some areas

Bryan: What are the odds the Nationals trade for a closer at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly low, you don’t have the same group of FA-to-bes

Hank: Is Mitch Moreland really a better option at 1B for the Red Sox than Sam Travis?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, I don’t think so

Evil Goatee Dan: When is the last time you thought about Tsuyoshi Shinjo?

Dan Szymborski: Probably since a usenet fight about him

Kosch: How would you use Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, Fiers, McHugh knowing that Devenski and Musgrove have higher upsides than Fiers and (probably) McHugh? Would you just wait for McCuller’s inevitable DL stint?

Dan Szymborski: Someone ALWAYS gets injured.

MDR: I recently emerged from a cave where I spent many dark, dark years of college education. After re-joining the world, I found Skyrim and Game of Thrones waiting for me. After gorging myself on these, what should I turn to next?

Dan Szymborski: Witcher 3?

Realist: Up until now anyway, Javy Baez has been a prime example of a player who is better in real life than fantast–they tagging, sliding base running etc are of no use in fantasy..position eligibility–yes? Eric Hosmer too–but to a lesser extent…agree?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Hosmer’s better in fantasy than real life.

PBishop: Will you be working with Diamond Mind and will there be a 2017 Zips Projection disk?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, yes.

Erik: Have any players you saw in the WBC who play in foreign leagues intrigued you enough to do a ZiPS projection for them? Got any interesting ones?

Dan Szymborski: I ran all the NPB ones!

Tom: Which Gurriel will have a better MLB career, Lourdes or Yulieski?

Dan Szymborski: Lourdes

Ryan: would Adam Dunn have been a HOFer if he had held on a few more years and reached 500 home runs? no PED suspicions associated with him

Dan Szymborski: No

Erik: I hate the 11th inning rule…except when it’s already 1 am and I have to get up at 6 am. Then the 11th inning rule is great.

Yosemite Sam: Harvey uptick in velocity. Reason for optimism or still wait and see?

Dan Szymborski: Optimism for sure.

Emma : Dan! Would you eat Polish kielbasa blended into a smoothie?

Dan Szymborski: Gross

Harsh Jankz: Dan, do you answer fantasy questions?

Dan Szymborski: Some of them.

Dan Szymborski: Generally the ones that are of wider interest.

Dan Szymborski: “Pick 7 of these 16 guys!” isn’t that interesting for anyone but the person who poses it.

Big Tuna: Is there any non-injury chance that Conforto gets ABs for the Mets this year?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get some for sure.

Monsignor Martinez: Do projection systems favor any particular type of batting order? Is there a better way to use traditional a #3 and 4 hitter?

Dan Szymborski: There’s not much difference between a reasonable lineup and an optimistized one.

Dan Szymborski: And it really only affects RBI/R for individuals

Big Tuna: Should Red Sox fans be worried about the health of Pomeranz and Price?

Dan Szymborski: Are they pitchers? if so, yes.

Cory: Who are you more optimistic for a Verlander-esque bounceback? Grienke or King Felix?

Dan Szymborski: Greinke

Erik: Couldn’t the MLB push for WBC participation to be a required part of contracts in the next CBA? Would it be worth it for the MLB to make the tournament better?

Dan Szymborski: Problem is MLB has to fight *both* teams and players, which is hard.

Jimmy Sak: Are ‘HOLDS’ a legitimate scoring category?

Dan Szymborski: They’re no weirder than saves honestly.

ctw: do you feel the projections for eric thames have larger error bars than guys who have played in american minor leagues their whole career?

Dan Szymborski: Sure.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: My dad’s favorite player was Shinjo. Don’t know why. Got him a Nippon Ham Fighters hat, considered buying a ludicrously expensive commemorative bat off of eBay. Fondly remember his dyed hair. I don’t have a question.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Pick a day and stick to it Szymborski!!!

Dan: If you were a Japanese franchise would it be the Nippon Jamon Iberico fighters?

Dan Szymborski: Hadn’t thought oit but it works.

Bunslow: Hey Dan, looking for some clarification regarding AAA average, replacement level, and AAAA vis à vis NPB competitive strength relative to MLB (and say, Team Japan vs the Cubs). So how many MLB wins would an “average” AAA team get? A team of “AAAA” players? How does NPB compare? (context: https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/60b51n/joe_maddon_wants_cubs_to_face_classic_champs/df5yg7r/?context=5)

Dan Szymborski: NPB tends to come out between AAA and MLB in quality

Dan Szymborski: AAA.5

Dan Szymborski: Now an all-star team of NPB *could* be competitive in MLB quite easily.

Dan Szymborski: Same with Cuba. The top talent is MLB-caliber, it’s the *depth* that amkes the leagues weaker

Dan Szymborski: Player Tm B Age PO RC/27 BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF IBB GDP OPS+ DR WAR Offensive Comp 1
Tetsuto Yamada NEU R 24 2B 6.60 .284 .341 .487 143 581 101 165 38 4 24 104 47 120 5 23 3 0 3 1 14 127 -3 4.4 Ken Keltner
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo NEU L 25 3B 6.50 .284 .349 .498 124 462 74 131 27 3 22 84 45 114 2 0 1 0 1 1 6 132 -4 3.4 Ryan Zimmerman
Hayato Sakamoto NEU R 28 SS 5.39 .277 .328 .433 140 538 71 149 30 3 16 67 43 92 0 12 4 4 4 1 5 110 -3 2.9 Johnny Logan
Seiya Suzuki NEU R 22 RF 6.54 .302 .347 .506 132 431 63 130 24 8 16 74 29 82 2 11 10 4 2 1 8 133 0 2.6 Austin Kearns
Shogo Akiyama NEU L 29 CF 4.65 .270 .324 .397 139 582 72 157 33 7 9 60 43 107 5 10 8 4 2 1 3 99 0 2.0 Bill Virdon
Kosuke Tanaka NEU L 27 SS 4.05 .254 .307 .384 139 539 66 137 24 5 12 51 34 123 8 13 12 3 2 1 4 91 3 1.9 Bill Spiers
Ryosuke Kikuchi NEU R 27 2B 4.12 .267 .293 .384 144 589 67 157 28 4 11 55 22 116 1 13 7 25 2 0 5 86 6 1.6 Carlos Garcia
Nobuhiro Matsuda NEU R 34 3B 4.06 .243 .282 .424 125 486 60 118 20 4 20 65 25

Dan Szymborski: Player Tm T Age W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR Comp1
Takahiro Norimoto NEU R 26 13 10 3.60 29 28 197.7 185 85 79 24 52 212 113 3.9 John Lackey
Tomoyuki Sugano NEU R 27 10 8 3.68 26 26 168.7 166 74 69 21 37 151 110 3.2 Shane Reynolds
Shintaro Fujinami NEU R 23 10 9 3.91 29 29 177.3 163 82 77 21 75 188 104 2.9 Mike Bielecki
Kodai Senga NEU R 24 6 5 3.88 18 17 111.3 99 51 48 16 40 127 104 1.8 Adam Eaton
Shota Takeda NEU R 24 10 10 4.39 25 25 160.0 159 83 78 22 65 146 92 1.6 Larry White
Ayumu Ishikawa NEU R 29 9 10 4.58 26 26 145.3 160 79 74 23 32 101 88 1.1 Greg Wooten
Yuta Iwasada NEU L 25 6 6 4.30 18 18 92.0 87 47 44 12 39 90 94 1.0 Tim Kalita
Yuki Matsui NEU L 21 3 2 3.60 61 0 65.0 51 28 26 7 39 88 113 0.6 Dennys Reyes
Toshiya Okada NEU L 25 2 1 3.63 56 0 62.0 58 27 25 7 19 63 112 0.5 Anthony Shumaker
Hirotoshi Masui NEU R 33 4 4 3.98 42 4 61.0 58 29 27 7 25 61 102 0.5 Dwight Bernard
Tatsushi Masuda NEU R 29 4 3 3.63 57 0 57.0 55 25 23 5 17 50 112 0.5 Jack Cressend
Daichi Osera NEU R 26 4 5 4.62 29

English Bob: Bird has 2 HRs today.

Mike: Is it surprising to you that most players don’t take adderall? Everyone seems to forget all of the methanphetamines players took back in the day.

Dan Szymborski: THAT WAS JUST TANG THATS WHAT AN OLD SPORTSWRITER TOLD ME

Dan Szymborski: WILLIE MAYS RED JUICE WASNT METHAMPHETAMINE IT WAS HAWAIIAN PUNCH

Evil Goatee Dan: But saves+holds is the best category, seeing as saves are just holds that end the ballgame.

Penguin: You a fan of Blake Snell? Walks are big issue. Him or DeLeon

Dan Szymborski: I think DeLeon will be good first.

Rick Ross: Are you guys going to be updating the park factors page for 2016? Did you already and I am not finding it?

Dan Szymborski: Just change the URL!

Dan Szymborski: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&teamid=0&season=2016

Tom: I know this is kind of off topic, but I truly can’t believe Larry Walker isn’t in the hall of fame. He was one of the best defensive RF’s I’ve ever seen. Did his move to Colorado actually hurt his HOF status? The guy was an amazing baseball player. Vlad Guerrero wasn’t any better than Larry Walker.

Dan Szymborski: He should be in teh Hall.

Dan Szymborski: I spend like November/December nonstop complaining, don’t drag it into early spring!

Erik: The main thing holding the WBC back is that the MLB is far stronger than the World Baseball Softball Confederation, who technically runs the event. For the WBC to ever approach the World Cup, the WBSC would have to approach the strength of FIFA, right? And that may not be a good thing.

Druidiful: Are you excited that it’s almost time to start using “April” for about 30% of your answers?

Dan Szymborski: But it will make people really mad which is great.

Evil Goatee Dan: My favorite Tsuyoshi Shinjo anecdote was that he didn’t like running or stealing bases because he wanted his legs to look good in skinny jeans. That is a 10-WAR comment.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, have to head out.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.