Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/30/18

Dan Szymborski: And away we go!

Mark: Is Jason Kipnis as done as he looks? Brutal start to the year…

Dan Szymborski: He’s on my panic list on my piece at ESPN today.

Billy Beane: Dan, which would be more entertaining, watching wrestlers play baseball or baseball players wrestle?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball players wrestle.  Bad baseball really isn’t that much fun, but bad wrestling can be.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: How do Kurt Suzuki or Francisco Cervelli have more home runs than Evan Gattis?!

Dan Szymborski: April!

Dan Szymborski: Last time I can use that.

Who_Is_Zorbist?: Who has a higher OBP than Rhys Hoskins and a higher slugging % than Aaron Judge?  Daniel Robertson.  Look at that BB rate!

Dan Szymborski: Rich Becker: The Next Generation

Dan Szymborski: The WB’s lowest rated show

Braves: Everyone is talking about Acuna (and rightfully so) but what about that other corner outfielder in Atlanta quietly having a good season? haha

Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me call the police.

marshall wildmann: Can you explain how you calculate the Zips projections and how we should use them

Dan Szymborski: That’s like a 10,000 word answer!

Dan Szymborski: The ZiPS Q&A is out of date, but it does cover a lot of the basics.

Dan Szymborski: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/szymborski/zipsqa.rtf

Kiermaier’s Black & Blue Thumb: Hi Dan. Thoughts on how the Rockies outfield situation will play out with Dahl etc etc?

Dan Szymborski: Since I have zero faith in how the Rockies are run at the major league level, I imagine they’ll pick the worst possible outcome.

Dan Szymborski: I.e. not send Dahl to the minors, but make him fight for playing time scraps like Ryan McMahon

Dan Szymborski: The money they’re giving Desmond/Parra/CarGo is already gone.  There’s no reason that the Rockies need to treat them with kid gloves as if they were seven year-old Make-a-Wish participants.

CamdenWarehouse: Dan, I’m sorry for your loss.  I have a senior dog and I’m really dreading that day.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it was rough.  It’s especially difficult when it happens so quickly.

Dan Szymborski: The cat had a perfectly fine physical 4 months ago.

Dan Szymborski: All three cats had nasty colds, Pandora was breathing heavily, brought her right to the emergency room.

Dan Szymborski: Found lung cancer, they were hoping that I could bring her home the next day, but she filed right back up with fluid and the oncologist said that even with aggressive treatment, it would be a matter of days and weeks, not months, and she wouldn’t be able to come home.

Dan Szymborski: So went right from “oh, the cat still has a cold” to putting her to sleep in 36 hours.  Which is why I haven’t been chatting, I just haven’t been emotionally ‘there’ yet.

John: Are you taking the Yankees or Redsox the rest of the way?

Dan Szymborski: Red Sox with the 2 game cushion by an edge

Kyler: Hey Dan! Love your work. What do the def ratings mean on the ZiPS spreadsheet? Is there a way to estimate run values based on those ratings? And related.. what’s your def projection for Jose Bautista at 3B? It can’t be good, right?.. haha

Dan Szymborski: That’s just for the Diamond Mind players.

Catwalk727: Dan, are you a believer in Daniel Robertson as an above-average MIF’er, or is his .429 BABIP a portent of serious regression? His walk rate and plate discipline and above average defense seem to signal that he is here to stay.

Dan Szymborski: He can regress and still walk a lot to give him value.

Dan Szymborski: Robertson’s still young enough that he could have developed significantly

Bort: How long until Dan Vogelbach reclaims his rightful spot on the Mariners roster?

Dan Szymborski: Mariners probably have to sour on Healy

Matt: Apparently I lost a bet. I said the Reds were more likely to make the playoffs than you were to show up to this here chat today.

Dan Szymborski: Ouch

jjp: What month is it?

Dan Szymborski: April

CamdenWarehouse: Which happens first: the Orioles win their 30th game or they trade Manny Machado?

Dan Szymborski: 30th win

Kei Igawa: Who would you rather have for the next 5+ years, Albies or Moncada?

Dan Szymborski: Albies, but this is one of those beer/taco questions

jjp: Why does Ryan McMahon only have 50 AB’s after a month?

Dan Szymborski: Incompetence

jjp: What April surprise team is going to make the playoffs this year?

Dan Szymborski: One of the Mets/Phillies/Brave,s but not sure which

White Sox fan: Moncada starting to hit a bit, but K rate still very high.  After 350PA’s, is it reasonable he can get that rate down a lot?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not, but given how hard he hits, it’s hard to be that upset about it

jjp: ROS, Chad Kuhl or Zach Wheeler?

Dan Szymborski: Kuhl by a bit

troke: What’s wrong with Marcus Stroman and do you expect him to get back on track?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, he was on my panic list too.  Even when his control has been OK, he’s been hit *hard*

DepressedRoxfan: Is there any hope for the Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: Well, they made the playoffs last year and have a winning record this year despite the best efforts of the front office to sabotage the team with vanity projects.

Dan Szymborski: Blackmon and Arenado cover more of Bridich/Black’s asses than their pants do.

Matt: We need to start referring to baseball players as “baseballers”. Will you join my revolution?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I like baseballiers

Dan Szymborski: Pronounced in a French fashion, of course.

Dan Szymborski: baseballdiers

Dan Szymborski: baseballadiers

Dan Szymborski: Rhyme with sommelier

Jim: Thoughts on Sonny Gray this season? How long until he turns it around or will he not at all?

Dan Szymborski: You guys are going down my panic list!  What’s scary about Gray is batters just aren’t whiffing on anything from him but his curve

Jaas: Do you think the Braves and the Os deal at the deadline? Putting your Os skepticism aside, what would a fair deal look like? Would the Os deal starting and relief arms too?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they do

Matt: Why does Bruce Wayne like baseball so much?

Dan Szymborski: The break between innings provides ample time for costume changes.

Matt: Because he used to be a bato boy

Dan Szymborski: <groan>

matt B: Dan, what do you make of Francisco Cervelli’s sudden non-suckiness? New swing going to stick?

Dan Szymborski: A BIT SOON FOR ME

Matt: Because he used to be a bat boy

Jeff: Which of the players having an incredible start to this season will be able to sustain their play to end the season with a much better year than expected? And which will fizzle out and not outperform preseason expectations?

Dan Szymborski: Gregorius on the good side.

Dan Szymborski: For panicking, I did a piece on that.

Kyle Seager: Is Kyle Seager having a disappointing season or is he just being a slightly diminished (i.e., 30 year old) version of who he’s always been?

Dan Szymborski: I still think he’ll be OK

Dan Szymborski: Though I dont’ think he’ll be a 5-6 WAR guy again

Dan Szymborski: But I think he can go 3-4 for a few more years

isit2016yet?: Hey Dan, have you had the chance to see Tyler Glasnow’s shiny new slider yet?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t.  I heard he whipped it out against the Cardinals, but I had a busy weekend (my sister got her master’s) and I didn’t do any of my customary review of interesting games that I had missed during the week.

Bort: When is Mazara going to start tapping into his power?

Dan Szymborski: Isn’t that the billion dollar question?  For the second year in a row, I thought this would be the year it happened.

Dan Szymborski: He certainly looks and swings like a guy who should be hitting 35 homers a year right now

Sir nerdlington: The argument against shortening the season is largely historical statistical comparisons. Make me believe this. Every era is different, we have loads of + stats, and the game has been played longer with 154 games than 162. Valid or yelling at clouds?

Dan Szymborski: I just like more baseball

OddBall Herrera: Do you think a player’s hit tool grade adequately tells you if a guy has good pitch recognition or good process at the plate?  It seems like a lot of busts are generated by guys who were physically gifted enough to get high hit grades but then get to the majors and are totally lost at the plate.

Dan Szymborski: Not really, it’s not usually part of the old timey tools.

Rob Bro: Biggest threat to the cubs in NL central: Brewers, Cards, or Pirates?

Dan Szymborski: Cards

Jake: 500 spiders in the Kindergarten classroom lives on after this weekend in Pittsburgh.   When will the long civic nightmare be over for us BFIBs?

Dan Szymborski: They really seem to like Matheny

Braves59: How real is Mitch Haniger’s start? Obviously he won’t keep hitting like this, but a wRC+ of 140-ish seems feasible considering his banked stats and his 129 wRC+ in 400 PA’s last year.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to have a power streak like he’s had and for it not to be real.  Homers for hitters are different than for pitchers.

Gabe Kapler’s Coconut Oil: Is there a place to download historical zips projections. I’m working on my own system for a project and would like to compare error against Zips, steamer, etc

Dan Szymborski: On request.

Matt: Can someone tell jotcast that this is America, and its a line not a queue?

Dan Szymborski: I like queue, it feels fancier.

Matt: I guess it’s old news now, but that Jeter interview with Gumble that had everyone in an outrage…did Gumble really expect a part owner to say “we don’t expect to win”? What was the point of all of that? Of course he expects his team to do their jobs – which is to play to the best of their ability.

Dan Szymborski: Jeter, IMO, has always been a stunningly boring interviewer.

Dan Szymborski: I think I can count the times he said something actually interesting in an interview the last 20 years on one hand.

Andy: Dan, you’re beautiful and I love you

Dan Szymborski: Now THAT sounds like a lie.  Someone once informed me over email I looked like a cross between Hermann Göring and Shrek.

The only guy from ND: Is it possible to pinpoint why some middling minor leaguers can break out later and become successful major leaguers, and why some talented prospects flame out? I imagine mental makeout and flexibility/resilience have something to do with it? Has there been any research on this front?

Dan Szymborski: It’s damn hard, or everyone would do it.

Coz: Do the fun police actually add fun to baseball in that they cause drama and bad blood?

Dan Szymborski: You want fun, but you also want a few Puritans to make fun of

Big Hurt: How can Kopech still not be in the Sox’s rotation?  I mean there was talk about them trading for Manny Machado so money doesn’t seem to be an issue to keep him down till Super 2 June.  Just seems crazy to waste the bullets in Charlotte when in fact he’ll most definitely be on a innings cap this season.

Dan Szymborski: He has like 6 weeks in AAA and he’s not so polished that I don’t think he can still learn in the minors

Dan Szymborski: Kopech is a fun projection because of any player in the long-term projections, he was the most bimodal that I can remember.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS think he’ll either be a superstar or terrible, and just being decent a much distant third.

Sir Mookleton McBetts III: Is it (Ak-oo-nn-yuh) or (Ak-oo-nuh) ??????

Dan Szymborski: neither

Dan Szymborski: ah-KOON-yuh.  The ñ shouldn’t sound like two syllables, it’s a consonant cluster.

Dan Szymborski: Unless I’m way worse at Spanish than I remember from growing up

Benny Agbayani: ZiPS isn’t a fan of Nimmo. Should he get more playing time?

Dan Szymborski: I t hink when a player’s playing well, teams should try to give them a chance to prove them wrong

Kletcher: Shane Carle: effective high leverage reliever, just like we all predicted coming in to the season. No seriously, have the Braves actually found something in him? ZiPS still has his projected ERA up over 5.00. He doesn’t miss bats as much as you’d like out of a reliever but limits the walks (which is something the rest of the ‘pen can’t claim).

Dan Szymborski: Well, the projection still includes a lot of starting, it would probably come down quite a bit

Dan Szymborski: With his velocity this year, he’ll have a bette rprojection next year if it keeps up

Dan Szymborski: Remembe,r he wasn’t exactly great last year, even if it was the PCL

Dan Symbioteski: Tyson Ross actually died and his hell is being a good pitcher but only when he is on bad Padres teams.

Dan Szymborski: That’s really cruel

Dan Szymborski: I think that kinda makes the front office Satan

Dan Szymborski: which means Cameron is now some kind of lich king or something.

The only guy from ND: Does anyone ever confuse the baseball projection system with the Windows file extension?

Dan Szymborski: not that I know of!

YKnotDisco?!: Why do HBPs have a higher run value than BB?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly becuase regression suggests that they lead to more runs.

Dan Szymborski: My theory is that given that walks aren’t truly binary between unintentional and intentional, there’s a slightly lower leverage of the average unintentional walk than HBP

Dan Szymborski: or at leas ta situation in which the pitcher is more willing to give up a walk than nomrla

Dan Szymborski: I hvaen’t really dug into it

Kyle: What do you think of the Cardinals outlook the next few years? Do you think they should go hard after trades at the deadline and free agents this winter? Or should they pivot and sell off?

Dan Szymborski: I think they got where they are be being solid and careful and that’s what they’ll ride.

Pad Squad: The Padres have a lot of prospect depth but few future superstars. Do you think they should just let their prospects play out, or should they use most of them as trade chips to acquire real star-power?

Dan Szymborski: The Padres shouldn’t be acquiring stars, because most stars that are stars have a short-term outlook

Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re talking, say, Mike Trout, but that’s not happening

Guest: NICHOLAS. WILLIAM. MARKAKIS.

@RationalMLBfan: As an Orioles fan, perhaps you can answer: What’s the deal with Richard Bleier? He doesn’t throw hard, doesn’t have a trick pitch (e.g., screwball), strikes out so few batters (though walks even fewer), and has put up some good results (though ERA significantly outperforms FIP) in almost 100 career innings. Does he somehow induce weak contact? Does he hide the ball well (his delivery isn’t conventional, but it isn’t *too* funky)? Is he just BABIP lucky?

Dan Szymborski: Bleier is weird in that if you looked at his profile and the weak contact against, you’d think he was a knuckleballer

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly a wormburner guy

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t know if he can keep *this* up.  that BABIP is a bit *too* low to be fully real and that K rate *too* scary

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Hey Dan, if a cannibal made a chili made of meat from former players Colter Bean, Billy Bean, and Belev Bean, would this be considered chili even though it was made with Beans?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.  You can make chili with proper noun Beans, just not common noun beans.

Elton: Domingo Santana:  panic or patience?

Dan Szymborski: Still April

Barfield & Friends: HeyDan Christenszym

Dan Szymborski: Yuck!

Dan Szymborski: I know I can’t get Philip Seymour Hoffman to play me anymore, but why not Jim Gaffigan?

Rob: How worried should I be about Sonny Gray?  I’m pretty worried.

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty worried

Yo-Yo: Ever play classic Sonic? Mania is a fantastic game.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t

YKnotDisco?!: Can you post the link for the explanation of scouting grades, please? I can’t seem to find it. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-…

Dan Szymborski: But there’s some variance depending on who is doing it

Sir Mookleton McBetts III: Mookie Betts has more career WAR than Mookie Wilson.

Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah

Dan Szymborski: So does Mookie Blaylock, I imagine

Matt: Regarding baseball players wrestling: We talking WWE, or greco-roman?

Dan Szymborski: WWE I’m sure

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Chris Davis? he just done?

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite worried

Dan Szymborski: God, I’m answering questions at 2:09 and I’m still skipping two-thirds.

Dan Szymborski: Can’t you guys think slower or something?

Dan Szymborski: Pretend you’re dressed up like Colonel Sanders and it’s an intolerable hot day and you’re just drinking mint juleps.

v2micca: Dan, I know how you feel.  I suddenly lost a cat a few years ago after she had been healthy for the longest time.

Dan Szymborski: It wasn’t as bad when my tortie died suddenly in my hallway and I found her in the middle of the night, literally two hours after she was merrily chasing a moth

Dan Szymborski: BUt it was pretty bad

Dan Szymborski: I feel the worst for Galileo.  He’s 19 and Pandora was his buddy for all 17 years of her life.

Dan Szymborski: At times he expects to see her, meal times and when he’s hanging out in my bed, he’s still occasionally looking around and yowling

Sir Mookleton McBetts III: Sorry about your loss Dan. Cats are the absolute best. RIP Pandora. Post a pic?

Dan Szymborski:

Nate: Sonny Gray, Jon Gray, or Fulmer?  heard fulmer early struggles were due to the cold, but hes not a big K guy anyway. 12 team h2h 5×5.

Dan Szymborski: Fulmer, I think.  I like Gray the best, but you don’t see many park-neutral leagues!

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Has the Cub’s bullpen finally come around or was their sweep of the Brewers more due to Milwaukee having an inflated record from playing bad teams?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’r ecoming around.

Reds Guy: Rate the Reds rebuild on a scale of 1-10.

Dan Szymborski: 5, they’ve done some good things but some bad things.

Bad Natitude: Can you think of any reasons Senzel is still in AAA?

Dan Szymborski: There’s just not a lot of urgency.

Dan Szymborski: He had two months of AA and a month of AAA ball.  The Reds don’t have the pitching yet to shift gears into competitive mode, so unless Senzel’s crushing it to the degree he doesn’t have much to learn, there’s not an incentive to be quick

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Besides January, June, and, I guess, May, which month can be a girl’s name?

Dan Szymborski: July

Alex A : If your in my shoes at the deadline, are you making a move or holding your prospect capital? If so, Any obvious guys you would target?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Jays are a team that can go either way

Dan Szymborski: What I wouldn’t do is stand pat though

Bort: What’s more fun about Tayron Guerrero – the insane K% or the leg kick at the end of his pitches?

Dan Szymborski: I like when his kick that looks like he’s pissed at all the drinks on a coffee table and is trying to kick t hem all off

Jason: Is 2018 finally it, for Chris Davis as a full-time player?  Or can he do enough in the remaining games to put his 2018 WAR above zero?

Dan Szymborski: His exit velocity is garbage

Dan Szymborski: I have zero optimism

Grandal Illusion: Donte Bichette going to steal bases in big leagues as he is in AA?

Dan Szymborski: I assume you mean Bo?

Dan Szymborski: Dante Jr. is slower and is not likely to get anything more than briefest emergency cup of coffee

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, teams steal less with guys like that as they move up the ladder

Bryce: Dodgers, toast or a bounce back coming soon?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be fine

vft: You think Bumgarner comes back and pitches like his usual self?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, until he gets injured in a hovercraft accident, trying to carry an enormous sandwich like Shaggy, or trying to light farts at a Carl’s Jr.

isit2016yet?: Think Pittsburgh could surprise and go after Machado?

Dan Szymborski: No

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Why cant Billy Hamilton take a walk?

Dan Szymborski: Worse plate discipline than me near all-you-can-eat wings

Matt: When will Mazara tap into his power: Soon. I answered it. Give me a billion dollars.

Raymond: I asked Travis a question earlier today about Gerrit Cole’s projections, and he noted that the projections dont take into account the fact that Cole’s repertoire has significantly improved. Do you think that, with improved technology, we will eventually see midseason projections that adjust themselves based on improvements in velocity, spin rate, etc?

Dan Szymborski: I think eventually.  The thing is, it’s still hard to have these things in-season as the data is still new and we’re still trying to get our brains around the long-term predictive nature

Kevin: Is what Teoscar Hernandez doing right now actually real? He put up numbers in the minors but he’s looking rock solid and other than a high HR/FB%, it seems the underlying stats support him.

Dan Szymborski: Doens’t he have  hte highest exit velocity?  Or is that Moncada still?

Dan Szymborski: Or, I could take 45 seconds and check

Dan Szymborski: Ah, he’s dropped to 4th.  It was Moncada-Teoscar or the other way around a couple days ago IIRC

Dan Szymborski: But yeah, he’s behind Cruz, Judge, J.D.

CamdenWarehouse: Matt prefers the questions were in a stack

Joe Morgan: Dan, glad to see you back, thought this chat was a goner. Did your mom’s basement get its power back?

Dan Szymborski: Smack!

NYTT: More concerned about the Braves rotation or bullpen going forward? I think while the bullpen has performed worse, the rotation has more ?s going forward

Dan Szymborski: I’m not actually concerned at all about the Braves.  They have so many pitching prospects tha tthey’ll fill things out even by accident

Matt: Chili is a soup. Fight me.

Dan Szymborski: Stew!

CamdenWarehouse: Is it a bad thing that I’m completely over pitchers throwing at people?

Dan Szymborski: As in you don’t want pitchers doing it or you no longer mind if they do?

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Was the Red Sox hot start a fraud?

Dan Szymborski: Well, in that they aren’t an .800 team sure

Dan Szymborski: But they always had upside in that Price and yes, even Porcello

Dan Szymborski: and Martinez was a good add

Dan Szymborski: Even with Hanley/Moreland doing their usual month-long good player impressions

T: How do I learn more about analyzing Baseball Statistics? Book? Strategies?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a very wide question!

JD Martin: does ZiPS directly take batted ball distribution into effect when projecting players RoS, or is it something that is inferred from other stats?  E.g. a player who has turned 15% of his GB into FB in April to hit for more power as opposed to someone who is simply hitting for a higher HR/FB

Dan Szymborski: Not in-season, that model is simpler.

Catwalk727: For how great Ohtani has been, it seems like McKay has been lost in the shuffle (and prospect radar it seems). He has been lights out pitching, and while his power hasn’t come through in SSS AB’s, he’s been above average with the bat as well. Do you think McKay finds himself at AA by year’s end and do you buy him as an above average big leaguer on the mound and at the plate?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s been forgotten, it’s just Ohtani has succeeded a higher levels.

Mr. Nor’easter: Gibson seems to be a polarizing player – very bullish or very bearish. Where do you stand on him?

Dan Szymborski: Bearish

Juan Fernando: Will Luis Castillo get it together this season?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I think that after that last start, a few weeks at AAA to right the ship wouldn’t be a bad idea.

54: Do you think Josh Hader gets a chance to start again in the future, or is he proving too potent to escape the bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: I relaly hope he does, his upside is higher there.  Though sadly, the longer they don’t try him there, the less likely he gets back to starting

Tears for Fears: What would a reasonable trade package for Manny Machado to the Cubs look like?

Dan Szymborski: Less t han the Orioles would want.

Dan Szymborski: I’m getting the feeling, from people closer to the situation than I am, that the Orioles expect a huge package for him.

CamdenWarehouse: why doesn’t 7zip give me the last 7 years of ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: No S

Biscuit: So is Luis Castillo a buy-low target or just a dumpster fire to avoid?

Dan Szymborski: Buy-low.  He’s young and very talented

Kiermaier’s Black & Blue Thumb: Dan…just let it out.. how do you REALLY feel about the Rockies organization…just think of this chat as an offshoot of the White House correspondents dinner

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t I already been mean?

Zip-a-dee-doo-da: Dylan Bundy is the Orioles most valuable trade chip. They pretty clearly won’t trade him. SHOULD they?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Benny Agbayani: Conforto’s .095 ISO not enough to make your panic article?

Dan Szymborski: Dude’s coming off shoulder injury and they pushed him back aggressively

daro: Hou screwed it with JD. Did it happened the same with Teoscar?

Dan Szymborski: No team is perfect.

Ash: I’m sorry about your Tortle. You should have used the water stone to evolve it into Blastoise… much longer life expectancy

Dan Szymborski: heh

YOAT: Do projection systems generally account for, i.e. correct for intentional walks?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does, can’t say for everyone

Dan Szymborski: OK, after 3 and I have to go.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joing me!

Dan Szymborski: Should be back on a regular work schedule now.

Dan Szymborski: You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.