Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/30/20

Dan Szymborski: And here we go!

Dan: Is there a way to enter our own stats and see what is projected? Is recently found my little league stats and was curios what the system would say if a prospect had 22 K/9 0 BB/9 one year 6 K/9 4 BB/9 the next.

Dan Szymborski: Heh, no little league stats in ZiPS

BASEBALL SZN: I know you are/were a big HearthStone fan.  Have you tried Gwent?  I made the switch recently and am hooked real, real hard.

Dan Szymborski: I have, though I do tend to play HS the most.

Sweet Spot: At this rate, what would your ideal season look like in terms of games played, location, playoffs, etc?

Dan Szymborski: 162 games and everything normal! You didn’t have a coronavirus qualifier

Chris: If the nl institutes the designated hitter this year, what team is most prepared and what team is least prepared? Also who is projected to be the top nl dh in a dh scenario?

Dan Szymborski: Team with decent depth at offensive positions are going to be the most prepared.

Dan Szymborski: Like the Reds

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers

Dan Szymborski: Nats don’t have a lot of depth, but they do employ Kendrick and Thames along with the confusing Zimmerman re-sign.

Dan Szymborski: Teams like the Rockies and Pirates are probalby worse off.

John: There are a lot of debates that come up when you talk about defensive WAR being overstated especially when certain players are used as examples.  Andruw Jones, Jason heyward and Omar vizquel come to mind.

John: my question on defensive WAR that got cut off –  do you think the calculations are highly accurate

Dan Szymborski: That’s a fairly loaded question! Highly accurate? Probably not, but at least decently so.

Hindsight: Looking back, Chris Davis’ contract has to be one of the five worst ever. Who else would be up there?

Dan Szymborski: Well, Howard, Pujols, Cabrera if you’re talking raw dollars

Dan Szymborski: In bad ideas, there are worse ones

Dan Szymborski: Like Wayne Garland’s ten year contract

Dan Szymborski: Hosmer in that first group too

John: Bobby Bonilla!

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, Bobby Bonilla’s payout is more meh than actually atrocious given the interest rate

Dan Szymborski: I mean, yeah, 8% interest in the payout isn’t good

Dan Szymborski: but compare that to Bruce Sutter, who got a variable interest rate that can’t go *below* 12.3%

Dan Szymborski: The Braves are going to end up paying Sutter something like $45 million when all is said and done

Dan Szymborski: They have to pay a final $9.1 million next year to Sutter. The last 30 years has just been interest.

Blue Morpho: Is it any surprise that the first team we learn of to furlough full time employees is the Rays?

Dan Szymborski: I would have actually bet on the Pirates, if Vegas was taking such a depressing bet.

Don: Is Luis Robert’s floor higher than Buxton

Don: Is Luis Robert’s floor similar to Buxton’s due to defense?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go nuts. Buxton’s a good player and almsot nobody’s floor is good player

Guest: Do u think D Baker will be pushing / staying  with his starters a little longer ? Have a chance to acquire Urquidy in a Quality Start league

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. With QS a stat in your league, I’d downgrade Urquidy a bit. I think he’s a five-and-out guy this year.

Dan Szymborski: Baker doesn’t have the authority that he did when he was with the Giants/Cubs. He didn’t ride Nats starters particularly hard

Don: Are you a Nick Madrigal believer?

Dan Szymborski: In that he should be a decent 2B without a huge upside, sure.

J.D. Martin: Have you tried combining the ZIPS prospect rankings with the McDongenhagen rankings using modeling?  I think that would get you most of the way to KATOH+ which was fascinating

Dan Szymborski: I’m generally wary of using any work but my own in ZiPS

simNerd: Any idea when DMB will finalize the 2020 disc?

Dan Szymborski: They have all the data and are working on it now

Numpty: Dan, can you project what I’m going to eat for lunch? The available data: Last night’s dinner was spaghetti with asparagus, today’s breakfast was a granola-like cold cereal, I’m working from home and eating what’s available.

Dan Szymborski: Would need to know what’s in your fridge.

Tom: If there is no season, how many teams pull the plug in their current window (CLE? TEX? CIN? OAK?) and start a rebuilding process. 2021 could be a feast or famine season across the league.

Dan Szymborski: Cleveland might.

Dan Szymborski: The Rangers are in a window?

Dan Szymborski: The offense is clownshoes

John: Posnanski picked Mays over Ruth as best player.  Ruth has the, “he was a pretty good pitcher as well” and the “total dominance” argument.  Mays has the “missed a couple years to the war” and “played in terrible soul-crushing ballparks”.  Who was the best ?

Dan Szymborski: In their times, I have to give the edge to Ruth.

Dan Szymborski: Who would be better today is always a tricky argument that needs a time machine

Jeries: Do you think teams will be more likely to manipulate service time with elite prospects during a shortened season?  Or will the increased importance of marginal wins encourage them to call up guys who can actually improve their team?

Dan Szymborski: There are reasons both pro and con

Dan Szymborski: For one, to get their elite prospects into actual games of baseball this year, they may have to be at the MLB level

Dan Szymborski: (at least before the fall leagues)

Numpty: Fridge contents: peanut butter, yogurt, a plethora of cheeses both blocked and sliced. Freezer contents: a bevy of frozen meals and some plant-based simulated chicken patties.

Dan Szymborski: I’m programming ZiPS to crash when it sees plant-based chicken patties!

Curtis: Is the NL DH here to stay?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if it’s this time, but I think it’s inevitable.

Dan Szymborski: I think once there became an odd number of teams in each league, the death of the pitcher hitting was in the timeline

BLT: Any news on the gambling side of baseball and how they would react to shortened season, shorter games, realignments?  I’d imagine they’d be less happy with unpredictable 7 inning double headers and loss of prop bets without traditional divisions, etc.  Not saying it matters, but wonder if Vegas is trying to get a say in format

Dan Szymborski: I’m not…sure

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Pirates would have been a good guess for the first to furlough. A part of me would have figured the Rays would want positive PR (especially as it pertains to creating jobs for the region) as they try to bilk taxpayers of hundreds of millions of dollars for a stadium, but perhaps the damage has been done by telling them they only deserve half a team and they’ll just have to share with the good people of Montreal.

Dan Szymborski: I think we’re way past the point where the Rays are worried about looking cheap!

dude: In the late 80s I remember getting Dave Parker, Ron Hassey, Brett Butler, and Howard Johnson’s autographs as a little kid. Did you ever meet any players/get autographs as a kid?

Dan Szymborski: I met a bunch of 1980s Orioles. I won a drawing in 1989 and got to hang out in the bullpen for a little bit.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never been an autograph/memorabilia collector.

Dan Szymborski: As an adult, I don’t buy a lot of things that I don’t see direct utility from.

Dan Szymborski: Which annoyed my mom so she made me buy art because I had a lot of plain white walls

Curtis: I think there’s evidence that Ruth was much better than “pretty good” as a pitcher in his time.  The Ken Burns Series mentions him as one of the best when he was with the Red Sox and he held a World Series (or postseason?) pitching record for many years…

Dan Szymborski: It amuses me that Ruth has more career playoff WPA as a pitcher than as a hitter

Roast Turkey Stearnes: If current regulations prevent clubs from being able to cross borders, do you think that dooms the idea of getting everyone (minus Toronto) back in their own park, or does Toronto just play an entire season on the road, batting last sometimes.

Dan Szymborski: I think if there was a problem, Toronto would be a road warrior team.

Dan Szymborski: Or perhaps adopt a park as their home park

Dan Szymborski: It really depends on what the season ends up looking like.

Sam: Outside of the all time legends (because of course you’d want to see them) who are some historical players you would want to see transported to the modern game?

Dan Szymborski: Some of those 19th century players for sure.

Dan Szymborski: Who wouldn’t want to see a player with the nickname The Freshest Man on Earth?

Dan Szymborski: And while he counts as a legend, I’d like to see spin rate data for Three Finger Brown!

Dan Szymborski: Maybe transport a spitballer and let them throw a spitball. I wanna see a Burleigh Grimes start.

Numpty: There is still one turkey burger left as well, and it’s meat-based at that

Dan Szymborski: Somehow, I think a turkey burger might be worse than a plant burger!

Dan Szymborski: Like if you’re a vegetarian for health or ethical reasons, that’s super fine. When forced to think about it from an ethical standpoint, I’m not actually sure it’s right to eat meat if it can be avoided (though I still do)

Dan Szymborski: But if you’re killing an animal anyway, you might as well have a burger made of beef! Yeah, I like turkey, but turkey burgers tend to be dry as hell.

Beane: Oakland has a window that they’re using to build the fanbase in preparation for a new ballpark; selling off players now would be taking the “Rooted in Oakland” slogan and shooting it in the head with less than a month before they actually gain 50% ownership of their current home (and future development income zone).

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never liked the Rooted in Oakland slogan

Dan Szymborski: I think of being rooted as being stuck somewhere.

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: Toronto could play in Buffalo (their AAA team)!

Tony Schiavone: Greatest chat in the history of our sport.

Dan Szymborski: Until the next chat, Tony Skee-a-vone

Hobie: Who’s your guess at the most successful kid pitcher out of Pearson, Kopech, and Manning?

Dan Szymborski: I think Kopech might have the highest upside, but the lowest *average* result of the three.

Dan Szymborski: I actually though offhand that ZiPS had it Pearson-Manning-Kopech

Dan Szymborski: but it’s Manning-Pearson-Kopech in average result, which is what I would say

Guest: Do they play as the Bisons for 1 year??

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d still be called the blue jays!

Numpty: Suffice it to say, I’m glad I’m not making your lunch today, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: Mom brought me over a sandwich which she ordered from somewhere. I yelled upstairs for her to put it in the fridge when I heard her let herself in, so hopefully she did that

Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming it was a cold sandwich. I guess she could have ordered me a cheesesteak, but I doubt she’d call it a sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: She’s shout down “Danny I got you a sub” in that case.

Billy Beane: Hey Dan, do you know if when a program scrapes FanGraphs and visits the URL it counts towards views for your advertising budget? I sometimes scrape FanGraphs for data and during normal times I try and do so with as few views and as slowly (sometimes with as much as 5 second delays) as possible so as not to strain servers. Just curious if those measures should be changed during lean times for Fang Rap HS.

Dan Szymborski: I honestly have no idea.

Dan Szymborski: Though I’d definitely encourage you to become a member if you have the wherewithal and are not already!

John: I want to move royals to NL Central, Pirates to NL East, blue jays to AL central and Nats to AL East.  I think Toronto/Detroit: Baltimore/wash  pirates/Phils and royals/cardinals are better rivals. Thoughts ?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard worse idea.s

Roast Turkey Stearnes: Following up on Beane’s question, do you think we see a sustained increase in payroll spending out of Oakland after the new park opens, or is this a Marlins-type flash in the pan?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be better than the Marlins, less than we would think ideal

MoKo: If you had Ortiz Yaz Manny and Jim Rice in their prime on the bench available to fill as DH, who gets the nod vs LHP? And RHP?

Dan Szymborski: WHO WAS ABLE TO DRAFT THIS TEAM!?!?!?!

Dan Szymborski: In this very odd scenario, I’m platooning Yaz and Manny.

Dan Szymborski: Yaz had pretty significant L/R spltis

Billy Beane: (I am an ad-free member though my scraper isn’t technically logged in when it visits)

Dan Szymborski: Excellent! Thanks for the support then! It’s greatly appreciated in these times of no baseball.

Danny: Is there an above 0% chance that Rutschman starts off in the majors this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s above a 0% chance that we’re all living in a computer simulation; if it ever became possible to simulate the universe, we’d be far more likely to be living in a simulation than the reality.

Dbo: So a plant based burger can be a burger but plant based chili can’t be chili? That’s discrimination

Dan Szymborski: chili is more specific

Dan Szymborski: and I’m not sure I’d call a plant burger a burger

Dan Szymborski: Why can’t we just eat plants that look like plants?

Dan Szymborski: Stay in your lane.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t see meat manufacturers trying to make meat that looks like broccoli

Billy Beane: Also, to those considering ad-free version of membership, it is like heated seats in a car, it doesn’t seem like ti would matter but as soon as you have it, you can’t imagine not having it. It is a real game changer.

Numpty: Well, if mom’s sandwich doesn’t work out, let me know. That last turkey burger’s got your name on it. I have several mustards to choose from if you prefer.

Dan Szymborski: I do like various mustards, but not really on a burger!

Dbo: Will July 4th be the most rootin tooting opening day ever?

Dan Szymborski: I love the term rootin tootin.

Dan Szymborski: I think I used that in a neural network complete of a chili recipe

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Isolated Thinker: Hey Dan ty for the chat….Rank these potential events in order of likeliness to happen:  Pitcher inducted into HOF with a Rockies cap on their plaque,  Yankees lose 100+ games in a traditional 162 game season, we see 80+ SB in a season from a player, or a SP wins a Cy Young Award with an ERA under 1.00.

Dan Szymborski: SB, Yankees – it’ll happen eventually, Rockies cap, Cy under 1.00

Tel: Dan, if you are ever feeling remorse over eating meat, remind yourself that, in terms of evolution, cows, pigs etc. are far more successful than they would otherwise be because of the fact that we eat them.

Dbo: I keep losing track of the days and forget about the chatz

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been losing track of the month. I thought it was already May a few days ago and I didn’t realize it was April and not March until like the 8th

Dbo: I saw a Reddit comment talking about how butter was abused milk and cheese was neglected milk, that’s one of the deeper comments I’ve seen

Roast Turkey Stearnes: A lot of older Jays fans miss the rivalry with Detroit.  Many Canadians living near the Detroit border are Tigers fans.  MLB loves to push the Braves and Phillies on Toronto as “rivals”, but those World Series were almost 30 years ago.

Dan Szymborski: Jays/Tigers had some fun moments in the 80s

Dan Szymborski: People are surprisingly bad at geography and don’t realize that Detroit is closer to Toronto than either Boston or New York are.

Billy Beane: TBH if you’re eating a hamburger outside of Hamburg, it is just a meat sandwich.

scully’s sweet sound: who do you think are the likeliest announcers in the modern era to become perhaps half as great as our lord and savior Vin Scully? anyone in particular you will tune in to when this whole thing is over just to listen to the broadcast?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there is one – broadcasters dont’ have the baseball cultural heft they used to

Todd: Will you be running a Zips projection for the rumored 3 division league? Curious to see which team would benefit the most in that scenario

Dan Szymborski: I will be doing that next week!

Guest: Joe Buck

Dan Szymborski: BANNED

Dbo: Have you been watching the bulls documentary? Which baseball player is most likely to take 48 hours off to go to Vegas?

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Dan Szymborski: Puig?

Dbo: That’s just false Billy Beane, is New England clam Snowden only in New England?

Dan Szymborski: snowden?

Sam: What is clam Snowden?

Dan Szymborski: I THINK DBO HAS A HYPERLOCAL FOOD TERM

Numpty: Clam Snowden is the new plant-based chowder from Boca Burger

Dan Szymborski: plant based chowder?

Guest: How much (roughly) is chat volume down compared to last year at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Chat volume is down a LOT

Dan Szymborski: I’m under 100 readers which never came close to happening in any chats ever before the last month

Sam: Corn chowder does exist

Dbo: Stupid autocorrect

MoKo: Most likely to be dodgers ss in 22: Seager Lux or other?

Dan Szymborski: Lux

Blue Morpho: It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a rule banning meat from portraying a vegetable.

Dan Szymborski: Then we should ban fraud meats!

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Loved the Eric Davis article, but felt ZIPs was a little hard on him.

Roast Turkey Stearnes: Please tell us next week what your sandwich was.

Dan Szymborski: BTW, if you have really insane questions, this is the time for them.

Dan Szymborski: I’m usually at like 400-800 readers in chats. Right now? 80.

Dbo: I’m all for banning fraud meats!

Roast Turkey Stearnes: Green meat usually isn’t a good sign.

Dbo: I want sandwich rankings for next week

Guest: I would love to see an MLB franchise owned by a group like the Green Bay Packers

Dan Szymborski: It’s not quite the same, but the Indians were traded for awhile

Dan Szymborski: Let’s finish up with some of the fun neural network baseball things recently.

Dan Szymborski: Bad News Bears plots, as generated by the neural net.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Field of Dreams

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Jason: Have you been following Craig’s crowdsourced predictions for an MLB season? I don’t understand why the crowd is becoming more pessimistic?

Dan Szymborski: People getting antsy

Isbndjeudgendidhebdjdgdhevdheh: Being a statistician person, explain your view of Pascal’s wager

Dan Szymborski: Pascal’s problem is that he’s missing a very significant outcome.

Dan Szymborski: He’s making an assumption that believing in god, if there is a god, *actually* makes it more likely to go to heaven.

Dan Szymborski: What if there’s a god who *wants* people to be skeptical and not beholden?

Dan Szymborski: I personally don’t like brown-nosers.

Jason: I understand people who think one positive test will bring it down. But, they would still start playing games and then make a decision if someone tested positive. People changing their votes from *some amount of games* to *0 games* makes no sense to me.

TarzanStretch: best chiles for chili: puya, ancho, arbol

Dan Szymborski: guajillo

Dan Szymborski: pasilla

Dan Szymborski: And you know, those cans of chipotle peppers in adobo are amazing

Dbo: Space jam but as a baseball movie

Dbo: if there were a baseball team like the packers then they would still be better run than the marlins

Jeef Berky: Damn you’re down like 90% viewership

Isolated Thinker: How many editions of “Who’s Who In Baseball” do you own?  Which years?  My favorite bathroom reader, I currently have the 2000 version in there.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually own any!

Jeff: Standing or fighting: which is MORE key to stopping the bad guy?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the bad guy’s exact bad guyness

Dan Szymborski: Completion
The novel coronavirus caused the 2020 baseball season to be postponed to late August as officials began to learn the extent of the disease. After a test of samples taken at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found traces of coronavirus, the league voted 3-2 to move the games, then postponed the series. It later completed a full decontamination of team hotel rooms.

There was also an incident in June 2014 involving a Chicago White Sox game that lasted 12 minutes and reeked of vomit and feces. Several teams altered their seating arrangements before the full teams began playing, while officials took precautions to limit infected players to the outfield.

Blue Morpho: “You don’t see meat manufacturers trying to make meat that looks like broccoli” Because absolutely no one is asking for that 🙂

Gil: Any prospects on your radar due for a major jump in value once we start playing again? Perhaps into the top 15 or so?

Dan Szymborski: I think that we’ll actually have slower moves this year.

Dan Szymborski: I’m confident we have some kind of 100 game baseball season. I have very little confidence that there will be meaningful minor league seasons

Guest: Odds Dom Smith starts 2021 on the Mets?  Trade time finally?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s traded

Jeff: Hmmmmm chat traffic seems down?

Guest: Is last season the best we’ll ever see from JD Davis?  Mets missing opportunity to sell?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a very good chance

Guest: Funniest thing you’ve ever seen happen during a baseball game?

Dan Szymborski: 1988 opening day

Dan Szymborski: they gave out these full size calendars for 1988

Dan Szymborski: but the Brewers were DESTROYING the O’s and people lost interest in the game

Dan Szymborski: so the calendars naturally became an armada of paper airplanes

Dan Szymborski: That were finding their way onto the field.

Dan Szymborski: The first base coach, Minnie Mendoza, got hit by one that STUCK IN HIS EAR

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Healthy Eric Davis would’ve gone 50/100 in 162 game season.  Yay/Nay?

Dan Szymborski: I think if he hit that many homers, he would have been allowed to steal less often

Numpty: Was Chili Davis ever beaned?

Sam: If you did space jam but for baseball, who plays the Michael Jordan role?

Dan Szymborski: Jeter unfortunately.

Isolated Thinker: If you can have an artist design a personal mask for you, what would it look like?  You can choose up to 3 themes let’s say.

Dan Szymborski:

Dbo: more likely to be a Bond villain: Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk?

Dan Szymborski: Musk I think. He has that edge of weirdness

Jeff: What does peak Nico Hoerner look like? Is it interesting enough that the Indians will trade Lindor for him and others? They should get on that

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be pretty good, though short of superstar status

Dan Szymborski: If the Indians aren’t signing Lindor and they’re not adding much, they ought to consider a trade

Jeff: MILF Island or Rogan as Mandela?

Dan Szymborski: heh

Hinske: Is Eric Hinske (07-09 Sox Rays Yanks) the only person to play in the WS with 3 different teams in 3 different seasons? All in the same division! That’s Khris Davis .247 level absurd, no?

Dan Szymborski: He might be

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: thumbs up, appreciate the Davis  love, be safe out there

Jeff: Hey man, Jeter is mostly vlass

Jeff: class*

Jeff: How can the players get the media back on their side? Pool together and buy all the media off the owners?

Dan Szymborski: Players never do well in media.

Dan Szymborski: Too many people actually think their ticket prices are high because of greedy players

Dan Szymborski: THEY’RE GETTING PAID MILLIONS TO PLAY A KIDS GAME!!!!11111oneoneone <fart sound>

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to hit that ol’ dusty trail.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!

Dan Szymborski: And we’ll see you next week!

Jeff: I coulda played like Mike Trout if I didn’t trip that one time